clivar activities · • coordinate interagency implementation of these process studies ... •...
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U.S. CLIVAR Program
U.S. CLIVAR Program
U.S. CLIVAR Program
David M. LeglerU.S. CLIVAR Office
U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Program
CLIVAR ActivitiesReport to the CPPA PI Meeting
September 2008
U.S. CLIVAR Program
U.S. CLIVAR Program
U.S. CLIVAR Program
Outline• CLIVAR intro (goals, objectives)
– VAMOS (process studies, modeling plans) - briefly• US CLIVAR (foci)
– Examples of USC activities– Process studies best practices, climate model interfaces
(e.g. CPT)– MJO - activities in the US, diagnostics, predictability, etc– Drought - activities in the US, workshop, etc
• WCRP Extremes (getting started with a cross-program drought focus)
• Wrapup/Summary - CLIVAR connections to CPPA, etc
CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability)CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability)
CLIVAR is an multidisciplinaryresearch effort within the WorldClimate Research Programme(WCRP) focusing on the variability and predictability ofthe slowly varying componentsof the climate system.
CLIVAR coordinates activitiesin support of its mission to observe, simulate and predict Earth’s climate system, with focus on ocean-atmosphere interactions, enabling better understanding of climate variability, predictability and change, to the benefit of society and the environment in which we live.
http://www.clivar.org
CLIVAR - Principal Research Areas
weeks - seasons - interannualseasons - interannual - decadal
decadal - centennial
CLIVAR - global view
Variability of the American Monsoon Systems (VAMOS)Variability of the American Monsoon Systems (VAMOS)The annual cycle of convection over the AmericasThe annual cycle of convection over the Americas
Horel et al. (1989)
IASCLIP
U.S. CLIVAR Program
U.S. CLIVAR Program
U.S. CLIVAR Program
International CLIVAR
US CLIVAR Scientific Steering Committee
Pane
ls
Predictability, Predictions &
Applications Interface (PPAI)
Working Groups (short-term)
Inter-Agency Group (IAG)Federal Program Managers
Process Studies & Model improvement (PSMI)
Phenomenology, Observations, & Synthesis
(POS)
Wor
king
Gro
ups
Com
mitt
ee
U.S. CLIVAR Office
As of September 2008:• Ocean Salinity (completed)• MJO (completed…Int’l development)• Drought• Western Boundary Current• High-latitude fluxes• Decadal Prediction (to be considered)• IESA (to be considered)
U.S. CLIVAR OrganizationU.S. CLIVAR Organization
“Best Practices”Research PrioritiesCoordination
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U.S. CLIVAR Program
U.S. CLIVAR Program
U.S. CLIVAR Program
DIMES
KESS
SALLJ
EPIC
NAMECLIMODE
VOCALS
Active & post-field phase:• EPIC • NAME• KESS• CLIMODE
Pre-field phase:• DIMES• VOCALS
Planning phase: • PUMP2• IASCLIP• Salinity/Marine Freshwater
Active & post-field phase:• EPIC • NAME• KESS• CLIMODE
Pre-field phase:•• DIMES• VOCALS
Planning phase: • PUMP2• IASCLIP• Salinity/Marine Freshwater
Process Studies and Model Improvement Panel (PSMIP)
Process Studies and Model Improvement Panel (PSMIP)
• Scientifically review and assess plans for process studies• Coordinate interagency implementation of these process studies• Develop and coordinate CPTs and other activities that lead to
• improved parameterizations of critical climate processes• better quantification of climate model uncertainties,• improved climate model fidelity
U.S. CLIVAR Program
U.S. CLIVAR Program
U.S. CLIVAR Program
Process Studies and Model Improvement Panel (PSMIP)
Process Studies and Model Improvement Panel (PSMIP)
• Other Outcomes and Functions• Best Practices for process studies• Climate Process and modeling Teams (CPTs)
• Existing CPTs (several $million research investment) are at an end
• Whitepapers highlighting successes and lessons learned nearing completion ===>>> planning for new CPTs in 2009
• Facilitates discussion/interaction between process experimentalists and US climate modeling community (e.g. NCAR, GFDL, NCEP)
U.S. CLIVAR Program
U.S. CLIVAR Program
U.S. CLIVAR Program
Phenomenology, Observations, Synthesis Panel (POS)
Phenomenology, Observations, Synthesis Panel (POS)
DRICOMP (DRought In COupled Models) Project• Follow-on to CMEP (Coupled Model Evaluation Project) which was the
kernel that lead to a large international workshop (Hawaii) and many papers that contributed to the IPCC FAR.
• DRICOMP: Evaluation of existing relevant model simulations•CMIP3, Paleo Models, NARCCAP, SMIP, C20C
Aims: Identify and characterize physical and dynamical mechanisms leading to drought and the mechanisms through which drought may change as climate changes. Diagnose simulation of drought in current models.
17 projects ($30K each) - supported by NOAA, NASA, NSF, and DOE
US CLIVAR MJO Working Group: Efforts to Establish and Improve
Subseasonal Predictions
US CLIVAR MJO Working Group: US CLIVAR MJO Working Group: Efforts to Establish and Improve
Subseasonal PredictionsD. Waliser, K. Sperber, J. Gottschalck, H. Hendon, W. Higgins, I. Kang, D. Kim, E. Maloney, M. Moncrieff, K. Pegion, N. Savage, S. Schubert, W. Stern, A. Vintzileos, , F. Vitart, B. Wang, W. Wang, K. Weickmann, M. Wheeler, S. Woolnough, C. Zhang
http://www.http://www.usclivarusclivar..org/mjoorg/mjo..phpphp
MJO Simulation Diagnosticse.g. subseasonal variance Precip and U850
Application of MJO Diagnostics to Climate Models
Operational comparison andmulti-model ensemble forecasting MJO
1) Where possible, develop scalar metrics of MJO model skill for1) Where possible, develop scalar metrics of MJO model skill for use in use in multimulti--model comparisons and for tracking model fidelity.model comparisons and for tracking model fidelity.
2) Work with the observation, model2) Work with the observation, model--development, and theoretical development, and theoretical communities to develop processcommunities to develop process--oriented diagnostics to improve our oriented diagnostics to improve our insight into the physical mechanisms for robust MJO simulation.insight into the physical mechanisms for robust MJO simulation.
3) Continue to explore multi3) Continue to explore multi--scale interactions & convectivelyscale interactions & convectively--coupled coupled equatorial waves, both in observations and high resolution modelequatorial waves, both in observations and high resolution modeling ing frameworks, with particular emphasis on vertical structure and dframeworks, with particular emphasis on vertical structure and diabatic iabatic processesprocesses
4) Expand efforts to develop and implement MJO forecast metrics 4) Expand efforts to develop and implement MJO forecast metrics under under operational conditionsoperational conditions
5) Develop an experimental modeling framework to assess MJO 5) Develop an experimental modeling framework to assess MJO predictability and forecast skill from contemporary/operational predictability and forecast skill from contemporary/operational models.models.
CLIVAR MJO Workshop Recommendations
New Approaches to Understanding, Simulating, and Forecasting theNew Approaches to Understanding, Simulating, and Forecasting theMaddenMadden--Julian OscillationJulian Oscillation
BAMS Meeting SummaryBAMS Meeting Summary
U.S. CLIVAR Program
U.S. CLIVAR Program
U.S. CLIVAR Program
• Defining drought (observations and related model predictands)• Coordinating key aspects of the (US) long-term drought research agenda
outlined in the 2005 drought workshop recommendations
Drought Working Group(16 members: GEWEX, Service Providers, International Scientists)
US Lead Drought Activity #2US Lead Drought Activity #2
http://www.usclivar.org/Organization/drought-wg.html
Coordinated Global Model Experiments Addressing the Role of SSTsand Soil Moisture in Regional Drought
• Multiple modelling groups performed identical idealized experiments to address issues of model dependence on the response to SSTs (and the role of soil moisture), and to look in more detail at the physical mechanisms linking the SST changes to drought
• All runs 50+ years, fixed SST patterns added to seasonally varying SST climatology
• Participating groups/models: NASA (NSIPP1), Lamont(CCM3), NCEP(GFS), GFDL (AM2.1), NCAR (CAM3.5), and COLA/Univ. of Miami/ (CCM3.0)
Multi Model Annual Mean response to idealized SST forcingContours are the multi model mean and shading indicates where all model have the same sign anomaly.Multi model mean for Pacific and Atlantic responses include NSIPP, GFS, GFDL, CCM3, and CAM3.5 models.The linear trend response does not include CAM3.5
Courtesy Phil Pegion NOAA/CPC
Prec
ipita
tion
(mm
/day
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U.S. CLIVAR Program
U.S. CLIVAR Program
U.S. CLIVAR Program Major themes:
• improving climate predictions / predictability• understanding and attribution of drought and its impacts• incorporating climate predictions /projections in the development and delivery of drought products
to meet societal needs.Meeting Highlights • DRICOMP program results• Analysis of US CLIVAR Drought Working Group model runs• Discussion of future research directionsScience foci includes• Drought across multiple time scales (weekly through centennial and longer)• Droughts across the Americas and other continents (Africa, Asia, etc.).• Assessments of the role of ocean, land, and seasonal cycle in multi-year droughts as evidenced in
coupled models (especially from IPCC CMEP-3)• Linkages between drought research and societal needs
33rd Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop
Jointly sponsored by NOAA and US CLIVAR (NSF, NASA, DOE)
October 20-24, 2008Lincoln, NE
US Lead Drought Activity #3US Lead Drought Activity #3
WCRP ExtremesWCRP ExtremesGoalsGoals•• To summarize, compare and assess definition(s) of climate extremTo summarize, compare and assess definition(s) of climate extremes andes and
develop a common language amongst researchers and end users.develop a common language amongst researchers and end users.•• To design an intercomparison framework through which both observTo design an intercomparison framework through which both observations,ations,
model representations of extremes & projections of climate can bmodel representations of extremes & projections of climate can bee assessed assessed & by which changes in climate extremes can be better& by which changes in climate extremes can be better evaluated.evaluated.
•• To accelerate progress on the prediction of climate extremes witTo accelerate progress on the prediction of climate extremes with a focus h a focus onon developing capabilities and products which facilitate practical developing capabilities and products which facilitate practical applications forapplications for stakeholders (end users/constituents) & regions around the stakeholders (end users/constituents) & regions around the world.world.
•• To assess and improve the observational and dataset framework foTo assess and improve the observational and dataset framework for study r study ofof global extremesglobal extremes
•• To determine how extremes are changing and varying and why (inclTo determine how extremes are changing and varying and why (including uding their relationship to mean variables, physical factors, shape oftheir relationship to mean variables, physical factors, shape of pdf pdf etc).etc).
GEWEX and CLIVAR have agreed to the following:GEWEX and CLIVAR have agreed to the following:
Many relevant activities within GEWEX and CLIVAR will continue
Catalyze & coordinate a focus on drought, e.g. expand/link what the US has developed (e.g., Working Group, DRICOMP) to other activities, e.g. CEOP, CSEs, HRF project analysis, international analysis of US runs, etc
Scope and range of activities to be worked out over next several months
U.S. CLIVAR Program
U.S. CLIVAR Program
U.S. CLIVAR Program
U.S. CLIVAR Outlook U.S. CLIVAR Outlook Two Major Opportunities Identified:
I DroughtII Decadal Variability & Prediction
Two Major Opportunities Identified:
I DroughtII Decadal Variability & Prediction
• US CLIVAR will continue to focus special effort in the interagency and intra-agency context on these topics
• US CLIVAR panels will continue their coordination, and other activities addressing major research needs, including many that intersect CPPA
• US CLIVAR welcomes ideas for new Working Groups (contact Panel co-chairs)
• CPPA community should continue working with US and Int’l CLIVAR