climatic changes of gliding conditions · climatic changes of gliding conditions z. aslan istanbul...
TRANSCRIPT
CLIMATIC CHANGES OF GLIDING CONDITIONS
Z. ASLAN
Istanbul Commerce University, Faculty of Engineering and Design,Department of Computer Engineering, Istanbul, Turkey,
A. TOKGOZLU
Suleyman Demirel University, Faculty of Sciences, Department of Geography, Isparta, Turkey, [email protected]
ABSTRACTThermal potential and climatic effects are examined in Central Anatolia by using long-
term meteorological data. This paper presents some analyses of monthly, seasonal and annual fluctuations of rainfall rate, air temperature, wind speed, wet and dry static energy and aridity index values for the selected stations in terrestrial part of Turkey. Climatological data of monthly mean and annual total rainfall rate, mean wind speed, air temperature and evaporation observed between 1901-2001 were considered. Temporal and spatial variations of normalized values were analysed. Climatologicalchanging effects on rainfall, air temperature, wind speed, drought risk, aridity indices, simple departure index and precipitation concentration index near vicinity of gliding school were calculated. Rainfall rate, wind speed, aridity, desertification and drought risk indices, Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), map of dryness risk class and their effects on thermal potential for gliding have been analysed. Climatological changing effects on meteorological parameters were considered by comparing the normal values of parameters recorded between 1930 and 1960 with the observations between 1901 and 2001. Remotely sensed satellite data were used to select experimental sites for more detailed analyses. Desertification Risk Index (DRI) and other normalised data were compared. This paper includes some results of the research project supported by the Turkish Scientific and Technical Research Centre(TÜBİTAK).Keywords: Thermal Potential, Climatological Changing, Aridity and Drought Risk Indexes, Desertification Risk Index, NOAA-AVHRR.
INTRODUCTION
MATERIAL AND METHODSDataMethodology
ANALYSISAnalysis of Air TemperatureAnalysis of PrecipitationAnalysis of AridityAnlysis of Normalized Difference Vegetation IndexTime Series Analysis of Some Climatic Parameters effect on Gliding in Central Anatolia
CONCLUSION
AcknowledgementREFERENCES
INTRODUCTION
Many large and meso-scale climate change simulations for the 21st century are based on concentration of green house gasses, (Giorgi and Francisco, 2000). The role of regional climate changing on erosivity and aridity factors were investigated by using some measuring and modelling techniques, Feoli et al., (2000), Turkes (1999).
In scientific researchs that associate the atmospheric water regulation and environment, and especially archieving and interpreting the rainfall statistics, meteorological data is very important. Many large and meso-scale climate change simulations for the 21st centry are based on concentration of greenhosuse gasses. Ground measuring systems and remote sensing techniques are essential for data archiving.
Kogan, Forsyth and Carey, studied global drought which is the most damaging environmental phenomenon. By using Advanced Very High ResolutionRadiometer (AVHRR based Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) and Temperature Condition Index (TCI) they try to detect water and temperature related vegetation stress occurring during drought. They showed very strong correlation between these indices and yield.
Vegetation greenness impacts on maximum and minimum air temperature, and microclimate has been considered in the analysis of temperature forecasting and modelling. Vegetation cover needs to be included as a factor in surface temperature forecasting, numerical modelling, and climate change assessments.
The main aim of this study is:
i)to analyse climatological changing effects on thermal conditions (air temperature, surface temperature, rainfall rate, relative humidity, cloud base temperature, equivalent potential temperature, moist static energy) for gliding activities,
ii)) to define aridity risk,
iii) to define temporal and spatial variation of vegetation cover,
iv)to define transition regions of precipitation concentration index,
v) to define variation of simple climatic deviation index .
For this purposes, some ground measurements of meteorological variables and remote sensing data have been analysed in time and space domains, Feoli (2000), Turkeş et all (2002), Reinhardt, (1985), Lindemann (1988), Wallington (1986).
Study Area and Data
Study area covers 49 different stations all over Turkey between 36°N and 420 N parallels. Total plain area is 779.452 km2. Monthly total rainfall rate and average air temperature values were considered from 1901 to 2001, New et al, (1999, 2000). Monthly mean wind speed value between 1999 and 2001 were also analysed. Together with surface measurements, remote sensing data (NOAA AVHRR, VIS and NIR) for different periods (1986-87, 1994-2002) have been considered.
Study Area Study Area
Station Number and Height of Stations at Different Geographical Regions in Turkey
STATION STATION LATITUDE LONGTITUDE LATITUDE LONGTITUDE HEIGHT
No (geographic coordinates) (grid coordinates) Mean Sea Level (meter)
34 Ankara39.95 32.88
40.00 33.00 891
35 Eskişehir39.82 30.52
40.00 30.50 787
36 Konya37.87 32.50
38.00 32.50 1031
37 Kayseri38.72 35.48
38.50 35.50 1093
As remote sensing satellite data, LANDSAT Thematic Mapper and NOAA/AVHRR data are used for monitoring land degradation processes. The characteristics of the data used are given as below.
Satellite Date Spatial Resolution
Spectral Resolution
Temporal Resolution
LANDSAT TM 6 December 87 26 April 96
30 m (Optical)120 m (Thermal)
0.45-2.35(Optical)10.4-12.5(Thermal)
18 days
NOAA/VHRR 96 / 99 / 02Monthly Sampling
1 km 0.58-1.10(Optical)3.55-12.4(Thermal)
Daily twice
Methodology
Precipitation Concentration Index
The following statistical indices define, annual precipitation deviations, (Gabriels, 1993, Michiels ve Gabriels, 1996).
12m = Σ pi / n
i = 1
where, m; annual average precipitation, pi; monthly total precipitation , n; number of months in a year (12). Standard deviation of monthly total precipitation:
12s = Σ (pi � m )2 / n
i = 1
To define time variation of monthly precipitation data, Precipitation Concentration Index, (PCI) values are calculated by following equation:
12 12 12PCI = 100 . ∑ pi
2 / P2 = 100 . Σ pi2 / (Σ P)2
i =1 i =1 i=1
Where: pi; monthly total precipitation, P; annual total precipitation, n; number of months in a year, (Michiels and Gabriels, 1996).
Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) Classes, (Michiels and Gabriels, 1996)
PCI Seasonal Rainfall Distribution
< 10 Uniform
11 � 15 Moderate Seasonal
16 � 20 Seasonal
21 � 50 Strong Seasonal
> 50 Isolated
In seasonal Concentration Index, mean monthly precipitation values were estimated by usingmonthly data.
Deviation of annual precipitation values (CV)) is given as below, Michels and Gabriels, (1996).
CV = 100 (S / M )
Where,S; standard deviation of annual total precipitation.
NM = ∑ P / N
i=1
where;N; data observation period (year)
Simple Climate Departure Index (SCDI) is given by the following equation:
SCDI = (P � M ) / S
Mean annual total precipitation values have been normalized by using this equation.
Soil Moisture Prediction
Soil moisture over the western Turkey (in Istanbul) basin has been evaluated for long term data by using De Martonne�s Index (I), (Piervitali, Conte and Colacino, 1999). The index is given by the following equation:
I = P / (T + 10)
WhereP: total annual precipitation (mm),T: Mean annual temperature (°C).
De Martonne�s and Soil Dryness Class
Soil Class D.M. Index
Desert, semi desert I ≤ 10
Dry, (continuous irrigation is necessary) 10 < I ≤ 15
Semi Humid (irrigation is necessary) 15 < I ≤ 20
Humid, (time adjusted irrigation is necessary) 20 < I ≤ 30
Very Humid, (seasonal irrigation is necessary) 30 < I
Aridity Index
Aridity index (AI) is given by the following equation Türkeş (1999) Aslan and Tokgözlü (2000a,b),
AI=P/PE
Where
P= Annual total precipitation (mm)
PE= Potential evaporation (mm)
Type of Area AI
Arid areas 0.05≤AI<0.20
Semi-arid areas 0.20≤AI<0.50
Drysub-humid areas 0.50≤AI<0.65
Normalized Vegetation Index
NDVI is the difference of near infrared (NIR, Channel 2) and visible (VIS, channel 1). Reflectance values normalized over the sum of channels 1 and 2.
NDVI = (NIR � VIS) / (NIR + VIS) = (CH2-CH1) / (CH2+CH1)
Class numbers change between 1 and 6, corresponding NDVI values change between 0 and >0.45. Surface characteristics are classified as open sea surface, urban, semi arid-desert, vet soil, forest, farmland and rainforests.
NDVI Classes and Surface Characteristics
Class No
NDVI Surface Characteristics
1 0.01 - 0.05 Urban area, semi - desert
2 0.05 - 0.15 Urbanized area, dry soil, clay surfaces
3 0.15 - 0.25 Humid soil, transition region, bare soil, less vegetation
4 0.25 - 0.35 Forest, open grass
5 0.35 - 0.45 Forest, farm - lands
6 >0.45 Rain forests, high mountainous area, heavy vegetation
ANALYSIS OF ANALYSIS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL CLIMATOLOGICAL
PARAMETERSPARAMETERS
Control Chart: VAR00002
Sigma level: 3
9791
8579
7367
6155
4943
3731
2519
137
1
777
663
549
435
321
VAR00002
UCL = 753,8363
Average = 548,9663
LCL = 344,0964
Control chart of Rainfall rate Values in Eskisehir
Time Variation of Annual Total Rainfall Rate kk(mm) Values (Eskişehir, 1901-2001, Moving Average for Lag=7).
VAR00001
1997,00
1991,00
1985,00
1979,00
1973,00
1967,00
1961,00
1955,00
1949,00
1943,00
1937,00
1931,00
1925,00
1919,00
1913,00
1907,00
1901,00
800
700
600
500
400
300
VAR00002
MA(VAR00002,7,7)
Time Variation of Annual Total Rainfall Rate, (1901-2001)
VAR00001
1997,00
1991,00
1985,00
1979,00
1973,00
1967,00
1961,00
1955,00
1949,00
1943,00
1937,00
1931,00
1925,00
1919,00
1913,00
1907,00
1901,00
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Eskiþehir
Ankara
Kayseri
Konya
Time Variation of Annual Total Rainfall Rate Deviations (mm) from Median Values, (Eskişehir, 1901-2001).
ESKİŞEHİR
-250-200-150-100-50
050
100150200
1901
1907
1913
1919
1925
1931
1937
1943
1949
1955
1961
1967
1973
1979
1985
1991
1997
YEAR
RA
INFA
LL D
EVIA
TIO
NS
Monthly Variation of Rainfall Rate Values in Eskişehir
ESKİŞEHİR (1901-2001)
01020304050607080
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Months
Rai
nfal
l Rat
e (m
m)
Spatial Variation of Rainfall Rate Values in Turkey, (1901-2001)
ADANA
ADAPAZARI
AFYON
ANKARA
ANTALYA
ARTVIN
BALIKESIR
BANDIRMABILECIK
BOLU
BURDUR
BURSACANAKKALE
DIYARBAKIR
EDIRNE
ELAZIG
ERZINCANERZURUMESKISEHIR
GAZIANTEP
GIRESUN
GUMUSHANE
HATAY
ISPARTA
ISTANBUL
IZMIR
KARS
KASTAMONU
KAYSERI
KOCAELI
KONYA
KUTAHYA
MALATYAMANISA
MARDIN
MERSIN
MUGLA
ORDU RIZESAMSUN
SIIRT
SINOP
SIVAS
TEKIRDAG TRABZON
URFA
USAKVAN
ZONGULDAK
26 29 32 35 38 41 44
36
39
42
300 450 600 750 N0 100 200 300 KM
Total Annual Rainfall Rate, (1901-1930)Annual Rainfall Rate (1931-1960)
Annual Rainfall Rate (1961-1990) Annual Rainfall Rate (19961-1998)
Control Chart for Air Temperature in Eskişehir
Control Chart: VAR00001
Sigma level: 3
9791
8579
7367
6155
4943
3731
2519
137
1
12,13577
11,13994
10,14412
9,14829
8,15247
VAR00001
UCL = 11,9025
Average = 10,1441
LCL = 8,3857
Time Variation of Air Temperature (°C, moving average, lag=7) in Eskişehir (1901-2001)
VAR00001
1997,00
1991,00
1985,00
1979,00
1973,00
1967,00
1961,00
1955,00
1949,00
1943,00
1937,00
1931,00
1925,00
1919,00
1913,00
1907,00
1901,00
13
12
11
10
9
8
VAR00002
MA(VAR00002,7,7)
Temperature deviations from median values in Eskişehir (1901-2001)
ESK İŞEHİR
-2,0-1,5-1,0-0,50,00,51,01,52,0
1901
1907
1913
1919
1925
1931
1937
1943
1949
1955
1961
1967
1973
1979
1985
1991
1997
YEAR
TEM
PER
ATU
RE
DEV
IATI
ON
S
MAX
02468
10121416
AN
KA
RA
ELA
ZIG
ER
ZIN
CA
N
ER
ZUR
UM
ES
KIS
EH
IR
KA
RS
KA
YS
ER
I
KO
NY
A
MA
LATY
A
SIV
AS
VA
N
1901-1930
1931-1960
1961-1990
1991-1998
1999-2001
Comparison of maximum air temperature in five terms in Central and Eastern Anatolia
MIN
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
ANKARA ELAZIG ERZINCAN ERZURUM ESKISEHIR KARS KAYSERI KONYA MALATYA SIVAS VAN
1901-1930
1931-1960
1961-1990
1991-1998
1999-2001
Comparison of minimum air temperature in five terms in Central and Eastern Anatolia
ANKARA
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1 12 23 34 45
MONTH
AIR
TEM
PER
ATU
RE
1999 2000 2001 2002
ESKİŞEHİR
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1 12 23 34 45
AIR
TEM
PER
ATU
RE
1999 2000 2001 2002
MONTH
KAYSERİ
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1 12 23 34 45
MONTH
AIR
TEM
PER
ATU
RE
1999 2000 2001 2002
KONYA
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1 12 23 34 45
MONTH
MEA
N A
IR T
EMPE
RA
TUR
E
1999 2000 2001 2002
VAR00001
1997,00
1991,00
1985,00
1979,00
1973,00
1967,00
1961,00
1955,00
1949,00
1943,00
1937,00
1931,00
1925,00
1919,00
1913,00
1907,00
1901,00
14
12
10
8
6
Eskiþehir
Ankara
Kayseri
Konya
Time Variation of Air Temperature, (1901-2001)
MEAN
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
ANKARA ELAZIG ERZINCAN ERZURUM ESKISEHIR KARS KAYSERI KONYA MALATYA SIVAS VAN
1901-1930
1931-1960
1961-1990
1991-1998
1999-2001
Comparison of mean air temperature values in five terms in Central and Eastern Anatolia
STDEV
00,20,40,60,8
11,21,4
ANKA
RA
ELAZ
IG
ERZI
NC
AN
ERZU
RU
M
ESKI
SEH
IR
KAR
S
KAYS
ERI
KON
YA
MAL
ATYA
SIVA
S
VAN
1901-1930
1931-1960
1961-1990
1991-1998
1999-2001
Comparison of standard deviations of temperature values in five terms in Central and Eastern Anatolia
T Eskişehir Ankara Kayseri Konya
Eskişehir 1 0.83 0.74 0.93
Ankara 0.83 1 0.89 0.86
Kayseri 0.74 0.89 1 0.86
Konya 0.93 0.86 0.86 1
R Eskişehir Ankara Kayseri Konya
Eskişehir 1 0.64 0.44 0.44
Ankara 0.64 1 0.61 0.63
Kayseri 0.44 0.61 1 0.66
Konya 0.44 0.63 0.66 1
Linear correlationLinear correlation
Time Variation of Aridity in Eskişehir, (1901-2001)
VAR00001
1997,00
1991,00
1985,00
1979,00
1973,00
1967,00
1961,00
1955,00
1949,00
1943,00
1937,00
1931,00
1925,00
1919,00
1913,00
1907,00
1901,00
10
8
6
4
2
0
VAR00002
MA(VAR00002,7
ESKİŞEHİR
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Months
AI
Variation of Aridity Values in Turkey, (1901-2001)
MEAN (AI)
0123456789
AN
KA
RA
ELA
ZIG
ER
ZIN
CA
N
ER
ZUR
UM
ES
KIS
EH
IR
KA
RS
KA
YS
ER
I
KO
NY
A
MA
LATY
A
SIV
AS
VA
N
AI
1901-1930
1931-1960
1961-1990
1991-1998
1999-2001
Annual Variation of AI Values in Eskişehir, (1901-2001)
VAR00001
1997,00
1991,00
1985,00
1979,00
1973,00
1967,00
1961,00
1955,00
1949,00
1943,00
1937,00
1931,00
1925,00
1919,00
1913,00
1907,00
1901,00
10
8
6
4
2
0
VAR00002
MA(VAR00002,7,7)
Annual Variation of AI Values in Ankara, (1901-2001)
VAR00001
1997,00
1991,00
1985,00
1979,00
1973,00
1967,00
1961,00
1955,00
1949,00
1943,00
1937,00
1931,00
1925,00
1919,00
1913,00
1907,00
1901,00
5
4
3
2
1
0
VAR00003
MA(VAR00003,7,7)
Annual Variation of AI Values in Kayseri, (1901-2001)
VAR00001
1997,00
1991,00
1985,00
1979,00
1973,00
1967,00
1961,00
1955,00
1949,00
1943,00
1937,00
1931,00
1925,00
1919,00
1913,00
1907,00
1901,00
4,0
3,5
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
,5
0,0
VAR00004
MA(VAR00004,7,7)
Annual Variation of AI Values in Konya, (1901-2001)
VAR00001
1997,00
1991,00
1985,00
1979,00
1973,00
1967,00
1961,00
1955,00
1949,00
1943,00
1937,00
1931,00
1925,00
1919,00
1913,00
1907,00
1901,00
5
4
3
2
1
0
VAR00005
MA(VAR00005,7,7)
Linear CorrelationLinear Correlation
AI Eskişehir Ankara Kayseri Konya
Eskişehir 1 0.11 0.17 0.52
Ankara 0.11 1 0.55 0.05
Kayseri 0.17 0.55 1 0.06
Konya 0.52 0.05 0.06 1
IstanbulTekirdagEdirne
Bursa
Canakkale
Antalya
Antakya
Ankara Sinop
Van
Gaziantep RizeArtvin
Samsun
GiresunTrabzon
Konya
Izmir
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
AI, (1901-2001)
Aridity Index ValuesAridity Index Values
AI ESKISEHIR ANKARA KAYSERI KONYA
1901-1930 6.4 3.7 3.3 3.7
1931-1960 5.4 3.0 3.4 4.1
1961-1990 8.1 3.4 3.2 3.1
1991-1998 6.1 3.8 2.3 3.9
1999-2001 4.5 3.9 2.3 3.5
VAR00001
1997,00
1991,00
1985,00
1979,00
1973,00
1967,00
1961,00
1955,00
1949,00
1943,00
1937,00
1931,00
1925,00
1919,00
1913,00
1907,00
1901,00
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Eskiþehir
Ankara
Kayseri
Konya
Annual Variation of DM Values, (1901-2001)
Linear Correlation
DM Eskişehir Ankara Kayseri Konya
Eskişehir 1 0.71 0.62 0.50
Ankara 0.71 1 0.69 0.68
Kayseri 0.62 0.69 1 0,75
Konya 0.50 0.68 0.75 1
26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44
36
38
40
42
ADANA
ADAPAZARI
AFYON
ANKARA
ANTALYA
ARTVIN
BALIKESIR
BANDIRMABILECIK
BOLU
BURDUR
BURSACANAKKALE
DIYARBAKIR
EDIRNE
ELAZIG
ERZINCANERZURUMESKISEHIR
GAZIANTEP
GIRESUN
GUMUSHANE
HATAY
ISPARTA
ISTANBUL
IZMIR
KARS
KASTAMONU
KAYSERI
KOCAELI
KONYA
KUTAHYA
MALATYAMANISA
MARDIN
MERSIN
MUGLA
ORDU RIZESAMSUN
SIIRT
SINOP
SIVAS
TEKIRDAG TRABZON
SANLIURFA
USAKVAN
ZONGULDAK
0 10 15 20 30
Çöl Kurak Yari Nemli Oldukca Nemli Nemli
N0 100 200 300 KM
De Martonne�s Index 1901-1930) , ( (DM) (Piervitali et al, 1999)
26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44
36
38
40
42
ADANA
ADAPAZARI
AFYON
ANKARA
ANTALYA
ARTVIN
BALIKESIR
BANDIRMABILECIK
BOLU
BURDUR
BURSACANAKKALE
DIYARBAKIR
EDIRNE
ELAZIG
ERZINCANERZURUMESKISEHIR
GAZIANTEP
GIRESUN
GUMUSHANE
HATAY
ISPARTA
ISTANBUL
IZMIR
KARS
KASTAMONU
KAYSERI
KOCAELI
KONYA
KUTAHYA
MALATYAMANISA
MARDIN
MERSIN
MUGLA
ORDU RIZESAMSUN
SIIRT
SINOP
SIVAS
TEKIRDAG TRABZON
SANLIURFA
USAKVAN
ZONGULDAK
Çöl Kurak Yari Nemli Oldukca Nemli Nemli
0 10 15 20 30
N0 100 200 300 KM
De Martonne�s Index 1931-1960) , ( (DM) (Piervitali et al, 1999)
26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44
36
38
40
42
27.89
21.17
22.50
25.69
27.97
55.42
30.56
29.8725.47
35.99
26.98
37.0229.87
23.10
25.38
22.62
36.1637.5927.93
19.89
34.34
34.03
30.78
26.32
37.05
28.08
38.46
34.00
20.96
23.44
15.38
25.08
27.6726.98
23.09
26.37
37.27
26.91 31.1127.80
47.35
25.75
25.44
25.12 26.91
18.39
26.1024.65
20.00
Çöl Kurak Yari Nemli Oldukca Nemli Nemli
0 10 15 20 30
N0 100 200 300 KM
De Martonne�s Index 1961-1990) , ( (DM) (Piervitali et al, 1999)
26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44
36
38
40
42
25.83
22.61
23.36
25.40
27.89
56.16
31.24
30.6325.90
37.07
25.20
38.0430.02
22.98
27.52
23.42
37.9436.9428.83
19.10
34.66
34.40
28.38
25.75
39.30
28.42
38.67
33.11
22.18
24.69
15.49
25.54
28.0426.90
23.33
25.07
34.10
26.71 31.3628.92
47.83
26.33
29.18
26.33 27.79
17.57
27.0223.58
19.74
Çöl Kurak Yari Nemli Oldukca Nemli Nemli
0 10 15 20 30 N0 100 200 300 KM
De Martonne�s Index 1991-1998) , ( (DM) (Piervitali et al, 1999)
26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44
36
38
40
42
ADANA
ADAPAZARI
AFYON
ANKARA
ANTALYA
ARTVIN
BALIKESIR
BILECIK
BOLU
BURDUR
BURSACANAKKALE
DIYARBAKIR
EDIRNE
ELAZIG
ERZINCANERZURUMESKISEHIR
GAZIANTEP
GIRESUN
GUMUSHANE
HATAY
ISPARTA
ISTANBUL
IZMIR
KARS
KASTAMONU
KAYSERI
KOCAELI
KONYA
KUTAHYA
MALATYAMANISA
MARDIN
MERSIN
MUGLA
ORDU RIZESAMSUN
SIIRT
SINOP
SIVAS
TEKIRDAG TRABZON
SANLIURFA
USAKVAN
ZONGULDAK
Çöl Kurak Yari Nemli Oldukca Nemli Nemli
0 10 15 20 30
N0 100 200 300 KM
De Martonne�s Index 1961-1990) , ( (DM) (Piervitali et al, 1999)
ADANA
ADAPAZARI
AFYON
ANKARA
ANTALYA
ARTVIN
BALIKESIR
BANDIRMABÝLECÝK
BOLU
BURDUR
BURSACANAKKALE
DIYARBAKIR
EDIRNE
ELAZIG
ERZINCANERZURUMESKISEHIR
GAZIANTEP
GIRESUN
GUMUSHANE
HATAY
ISPARTA
ISTANBULG
IZMIR
KARS
KASTAMONU
KAYSERI
KOCAELÝ
KONYA
KUTAHYA
MALATYAMANISA
MARDIN
MERSIN
MUGLA
ORDU RÝZESAMSUN
SIIRT
SINOP
SIVAS
TEKIRDAG TRABZON
URFA
USAKVAN
ZONGULDAK
26 29 32 35 38 41 44
36
39
42
Çöl Kurak Yari Nemli Oldukca Nemli Nemli
0 10 15 20 30
N0 100 200 300 KM
De Martonne�s Index 1901-1998) , ( (DM) (Piervitali et al, 1999)
VAR00001
1997,00
1991,00
1985,00
1979,00
1973,00
1967,00
1961,00
1955,00
1949,00
1943,00
1937,00
1931,00
1925,00
1919,00
1913,00
1907,00
1901,00
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
Eskiþehir
Ankara
Kayseri
Konya
Time Variation of SCDI Values, (1901-2001)
SCDI (MEDIAN)
-0,8-0,6-0,4-0,2
00,20,40,60,8
11,2
ANKARAELA
ZIGERZIN
CANERZURUMESKIS
EHIRKARS
KAYSERIKONYA
MALATYA
SIVASVAN
1901-19301931-19601961-19901991-19981999-2001
Linear Correlation
SCDI Eskişehir Ankara Kayseri Konya
Eskişehir 1 0.65 0.52 0.41
Ankara 0.65 1 0.63 0.62
Kayseri 0.52 0.63 1 0.72
Konya 0.41 0.62 0.72 1
VAR00001
1997,00
1991,00
1985,00
1979,00
1973,00
1967,00
1961,00
1955,00
1949,00
1943,00
1937,00
1931,00
1925,00
1919,00
1913,00
1907,00
1901,00
30
25
20
15
10
5
Eskiþehir
Ankara
Kayseri
Konya
Annual Variation of PCI Values, (1901-2001)
PCI (MEDIAN)
0
5
10
15
20
ANKARAELA
ZIGERZIN
CANERZURUMESKIS
EHIRKARS
KAYSERIKONYA
MALATYA
SIVASVAN
1901-19301931-19601961-19901991-19981999-2001
Linear Correlation
PCI Eskişehir Ankara Kayseri Konya
Eskişehir 1 0.6 0.6 0.56
Ankara 0.6 1 0.57 0.68
Kayseri 0.6 0.57 1 0.64
Konya 0.56 0.68 0.64 1
ADANA
ADAPAZARI
AFYON
ANKARA
ANTALYA
ARTVIN
BALIKESIR
BANDIRMABÝLECÝK
BOLU
BURDUR
BURSACANAKKALE
DIYARBAKIR
EDIRNE
ELAZIG
ERZINCANERZURUMESKISEHIR
GAZIANTEP
GIRESUN
GUMUSHANE
HATAY
ISPARTA
ISTANBULG
IZMIR
KARS
KASTAMONU
KAYSERI
KOCAELÝ
KONYA
KUTAHYA
MALATYAMANISA
MARDIN
MERSIN
MUGLA
ORDU RÝZESAMSUN
SIIRT
SINOP
SIVAS
TEKIRDAG TRABZON
URFA
USAKVAN
ZONGULDAK
26 29 32 35 38 41 44
36
39
42
0 10 15 20 50
Uniform Orta Mevsimsel Mevsimsel Kuvvetli Mevsimsel Ayrik
N0 100 200 300 KM
(PCI) Indexes (Michielsand Gabriels, 1996), 1901-2001
26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44
36
38
40
42
ADANA
ADAPAZARI
AFYON
ANKARA
ANTALYA
ARTVIN
BALIKESIR
BILECIK
BOLU
BURDUR
BURSACANAKKALE
DIYARBAKIR
EDIRNE
ELAZIG
ERZINCANERZURUMESKISEHIR
GAZIANTEP
GIRESUN
GUMUSHANE
HATAY
ISPARTA
ISTANBUL
IZMIR
KARS
KASTAMONU
KAYSERI
KOCAELI
KONYA
KUTAHYA
MALATYAMANISA
MARDIN
MERSIN
MUGLA
ORDU RIZESAMSUN
SIIRT
SINOP
SIVAS
TEKIRDAG TRABZON
SANLIURFA
USAKVAN
ZONGULDAK
N0 100 200 300 KM
Uniform Orta Mevsimsel Mevsimsel Kuvvetli Mevsimsel Ayrik
0 10 15 20 50
(PCI) Indexes (Michielsand Gabriels, 1996), 1998-2001
NDVI ANALYSISNDVI ANALYSIS
ESKİŞEHİR
-0,1
0,1
0,3
0,5
0,7
0,9
10.04.1997
10.08.1997
10.12.1997
10.04.1998
10.08.1998
10.12.1998
10.04.1999
10.08.1999
10.12.1999
10.04.2000
10.08.2000
10.12.2000
10.04.2001
10.08.2001
10.12.2001
10.04.2002
10.08.2002
YEAR
ND
VI
ANKARA
-0,1
0,1
0,3
0,5
0,7
0,9
10.04.1997
10.10.1997
10.04.1998
10.10.1998
10.04.1999
10.10.1999
10.04.2000
10.10.2000
10.04.2001
10.10.2001
10.04.2002
10.10.2002
YEAR
ND
VI
KONYA
-0,1
0,1
0,3
0,5
0,7
0,9
10.04.1997
10.10.1997
10.04.1998
10.10.1998
10.04.1999
10.10.1999
10.04.2000
10.10.2000
10.04.2001
10.10.2001
10.04.2002
10.10.2002
YEAR
ND
VI
KAYSERİ
-0,3
-0,1
0,1
0,3
0,5
0,7
0,9
10.04.1997
10.10.1997
10.04.1998
10.10.1998
10.04.1999
10.10.1999
10.04.2000
10.10.2000
10.04.2001
10.10.2001
10.04.2002
10.10.2002
YEAR
ND
VI
NDVI (2000)
-0,1
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,521
.01.
2000
21.0
2.20
00
21.0
3.20
00
21.0
4.20
00
21.0
5.20
00
21.0
6.20
00
21.0
7.20
00
21.0
8.20
00
21.0
9.20
00
21.1
0.20
00
MONTH
ND
VI
EskişehirAnkaraKayseriKonya
NDVI (2000-2002)
00,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80,9
10.0
5.20
00
10.0
8.20
00
10.1
1.20
00
10.0
2.20
01
10.0
5.20
01
10.0
8.20
01
10.1
1.20
01
10.0
2.20
02
10.0
5.20
02
MONTH
NDV
I
EskişehirAnkaraKayseriKonya
CENTRAL ANATOLIA (AI-NDVI)
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
Ankara Konya Kayseri Afyon Eskişehir
STATION
AI,
ND
VI AINDVI
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
AR
TVIN
TRA
BZO
NG
IRES
UN
SAM
SUN
SIN
OP
ZON
GU
LDA
KK
AST
AM
ON
UB
OLU
GU
MU
SHA
NE
RİZ
EO
RD
UIS
TAN
BU
LGED
IRN
ETE
KIR
DA
GBİL
ECİK
KO
CA
ELİ
BA
ND
IRM
AC
AN
AK
KA
LEB
ALI
KES
IRB
UR
SAA
DA
PAZA
RI
IZM
IRM
AN
ISA
MU
GLA
AFY
ON
KU
TAH
YA
USA
KIS
PAR
TAB
UR
DU
RA
NTA
LYA
MER
SIN
AD
AN
AH
ATA
YA
NK
AR
AES
KIS
EHIR
KO
NY
AK
AY
SER
ISI
VA
SER
ZUR
UM
ERZI
NC
AN
ELA
ZIG
MA
LATY
AV
AN
SIIR
TK
AR
SU
RFA
DIY
AR
BA
KIR
GA
ZIA
NTE
PM
AR
DIN
STATIONS
ND
VI
15.11.200005.10.200003.09.200014.08.200007.08.200029.07.200008.07.200013.06.200010.05.200006.04.200015.03.200014.03.200002.03.200008.02.200021.01.2000
Variation of NDVI Values in 1987
Variation of NDVI Values in 1988
Spatial variation of NDVI values in 1995
ADANA
ADAPAZARI
AFYON
ANKARA
ANTALYA
ARTVÝN
BALIKESÝR
BANDIRMABÝLECÝK
BOLU
BURDUR
BURSAÇANAKKALE
DÝYARBAKIR
EDÝRNE
ELAZIÐ
ERZÝNCANERZURUMESKÝÞEHIÝR
GAZÝANTEP
GÝRESUN
GÜMÜÞHANE
HATAY
ISPARTA
ÝSTANBULG
ÝZMÝR
KARS
KASTAMONU
KAYSERÝ
KOCAELÝ
KONYA
KÜTAHYA
MALATYAMANÝSA
MARDÝN
MERSÝN
MUÐLA
ORDU RÝZESAMSUN
SÝÝRT
SÝNOP
SÝVAS
TEKÝRDAÐ TRABZON
URFA
UÞAKVAN
ZONGULDAK
26 29 32 35 38 41 44
36
39
42
N
29-04-2001 NDVI
0.25 0.35 0.450.12 0.15
2.SINIF 3.SINIF 4.SINIF 5.SINIF 6.SINIF
NDVI
0,000,100,200,300,40
ARTVIN
SAMSUNKASTA
MONUBURSA
CANAKKALEMANIS
AKUTA
HYAMERSINIS
PARTAANKARAKAYSERI
ELAZIG
URFA
SIIRT
Station
NDVI 1987
1988
NDVI
0,000,100,200,300,40
ARTV
INSAM
SUNKAS
...BURSACAN
...MAN
ISAKUT..
.MERSINISPAR
TAAN
KARA
KAYSERI
ELAZIG
URFASIIR
T
Station
ND
VI 19871995
ANALYSIS OF CLIMATIC ANALYSIS OF CLIMATIC PARAMETERS EFFECTS ON PARAMETERS EFFECTS ON
GLIDINGGLIDING
Time Variation of Surface Temperature in Eskişehir, (1901-2001)
VAR00001
1997,00
1991,00
1985,00
1979,00
1973,00
1967,00
1961,00
1955,00
1949,00
1943,00
1937,00
1931,00
1925,00
1919,00
1913,00
1907,00
1901,00
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
VAR00003
MA(VAR00003,7,7)
VAR00001
1997,00
1991,00
1985,00
1979,00
1973,00
1967,00
1961,00
1955,00
1949,00
1943,00
1937,00
1931,00
1925,00
1919,00
1913,00
1907,00
1901,00
20
10
0
-10
VAR00005
MA(VAR00005,7,7)
Time Variation of Condensation Level-Air Temperature in Eskişehir, (1901-2001)
VAR00001
1997,00
1991,00
1985,00
1979,00
1973,00
1967,00
1961,00
1955,00
1949,00
1943,00
1937,00
1931,00
1925,00
1919,00
1913,00
1907,00
1901,00
40
30
20
10
VAR00006
MA(VAR00006,7,7)
Time Variation of Equivalent Potential Temperature in Eskişehir, (1901-2001)
VAR00001
1997,00
1991,00
1985,00
1979,00
1973,00
1967,00
1961,00
1955,00
1949,00
1943,00
1937,00
1931,00
1925,00
1919,00
1913,00
1907,00
1901,00
1,1
1,0
,9
,8
,7
,6
,5
,4
VAR00002
MA(VAR00002,7,7)
Time Variation of Relative Humidity in Eskişehir, (1901-2001)
VAR00001
1997,00
1991,00
1985,00
1979,00
1973,00
1967,00
1961,00
1955,00
1949,00
1943,00
1937,00
1931,00
1925,00
1919,00
1913,00
1907,00
1901,00
360000
350000
340000
330000
320000
310000
300000
290000
VAR00002
MA(VAR00002,7,7)
Time Variation of Moist Static Energy in Eskişehir, (H, 1901-2001)
ESKİŞEHİR (DEVIATION)
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
400001 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99
YEAR
MO
IST
STAT
IC E
NERG
Y
Moist Static Energy, Eskişehir
DEVIATIONS (Eskişehir)
-15
-10-5
05
1015
2019
0119
0819
1519
2219
2919
3619
4319
5019
5719
6419
7119
7819
8519
9219
99
Year
TCL,
TETA
,TS
TCLTETATS
RESULTS AND CONCLUSION RESULTS AND CONCLUSION
Analysis of Rainfall Rate
The cities Adapazarõ, Bilecik, Edirne, Kocaeli, Tekirdağ, Konya and Kayseri are under the dry conditions. Annual total rainfall rate is less than 600mm. Rainfall rate values have increased in the Marmara Region, and total annual rainfall rate values would be more than 600mm in following 30 years period, Aslan et al, (2004). There is a significant evidence of this trend for α= 0.05 in Adapazarõ, Kocaeli and Istanbul. Based on long term estimations, wet conditions are expected in Adapazarõ beginning from 2003. In Black Sea Region, annual total rainfall rate values generally show an increasing trend except Kastamonu and Samsun.
Analysis of Air Temperature
Temperature scenarios based on the linear model in all stations show an increasing trend in the Marmara Region. It is estimated that annual air temperature values in this region would increase 0.3oC until 2030. Similar increasing trend is observed in Akdeniz Region in general. In this region, annual average air temperature values recorded between 1991-2001 are 0.2 � 2.1oC higher than temperature values observed between 1981 and 1990. In Eastern Anatolia average air temperature values also show an increasing trend.
Analysis of Aridity
There is no aridity risk at the southern, western and northeastern part of Turkey. In the Marmara Region, regional maximum of AI is equal to 2.99 (humid area). Thrace Part, Central and Eastern Anatolia are under the aridity risk. In Eastern Anatolia, semi�humid or dry conditions have been observed instead of humid or semi-humid conditions in recent years.
Analysis of Precipitation Concentration Index
Analysis show that there is a seasonal rainfall distribution in Southern Anatolia and Akdeniz Region. Other regions have a moderate seasonal rainfall distribution. Black Sea regions had a uniform rainfall distribution in the previous periods.
Analysis of Regional Variation of Simple Climate Departure Index
SCDI values are increased in all geographical regions, except Mediterranean Region in Turkey. The highest increasing values have been recorded in The Marmara Region and Central Anatolia. In these areas SCDI values which are greater than zero and, positive SCDI values correspond to positive departures of precipitation. In contrast SCDI values are negative in Akdeniz Region
Between 1901-1930, 1961-1990 and 1991-1998, except Black Sea Region at all regions in Turkey, there are moderate seasonal rainfall distribution. At Black Sea Region, until 1990, uniform rainfall distribution was observed. Between 1931 and 1960, at South-eastern Anatolia, there is moderate seasonal rainfall distribution. In the last term (between 1999- 2001), South-eastern Anatolia, Mediterranean and Aegean Sea Regions have a seasonal rainfall distribution. In general Turkey is under the effects of moderate seasonal rainfall distribution.
Analysis of NDVI
Density of vegetation cover (Normalised Vegetation Index, NDVI) variations are presented in figure. In summer period, except Black Sea Region, NDVI values are low in Turkey. In general, beginning from 2000, NDVI values show an increasing trend in Turkey, but in Southern Anatolia lower NDVI values have been observed than the other regions
CONCLUSION
This study is related with the utilisation and interpretation of some surface measurements together with the remote sensing data to explain and have some solutions of urbanization, climate changing on gliding.
Analysis of Climatic Parameters Effects on Gliding
Surface temperature shows increasing (approximately 1,5 C) trend in Eskişehir.
Time variation of condensation level temperature shows slightly increasing trend in Eskişehir.
Equivalent Potential Temperature increases beginning from 2000.
Moist static energy shows increasing trend, Kahya (2000).
AcknowledgementThe authors wish to thank to Dr. Filippo Giorgi (The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics ) and Eng. Lütfiye Kuşak for their supports. Input of this paper is related with a national research project supported by Turkish Scientific and Technical Research Council (TÜBİTAK, TOGTAG-Project No: 2846), and authors are very much obliged to TÜBİTAK for their financial support.
REFERENCESAslan, Z., Maktav, D., Skidmore, E. L., Feoli, E., Sunar Erbek, F., Erol, H., Berberoğlu, S., Okçu, D., Söğüt A. S., 2004: Erosion Risk Map of Turkey: Classification of Erosion Risk by UsingClimatological and Remote Sensing Data, TUBITAK, Agriculture, Forestry and Food TechnologiesResearch Grant Committee, Project No:TOGTAG-2846.
Aslan, Z., and A. Tokgozlu, (2000a): �Climatological Changing Effects on rainfall Erositivty and Wind Erosion�, AGROENVIRON2000: 2nd. International Symposium on New Technologies for Environmental Monitoring and Agro-Applications�, p.265-273.
Aslan, Z., (2000b): �Climate Change Scenarios: Rainfall and Wind Erosion Prediction�, AGROENVIRON2000: 2nd. International Symposium on New Technologies for Environmental Monitoring and Agro-Applications�, Proceedings (Workshops), p.4-5.
Feoli, E., Giacomich, P., Mignozzi, K., Öztürk, M., Scimone, M., 2000. The Use of GIS and remote sensing in monitoring desertification risk in coastal areas of Turkey, AGROENVIRON2000: 2nd. International Symposium on New Technologies for Environmental Monitoring and Agro-Applications, Tekirdag, Turkey, 39 � 47.
Gabriels, D., 1993. The USLE for predicting rainfall erosion losses. ICTP-SMR. 705-3. Trieste.
Giorgi, F., and Francisco, R., 2000. Evaluating uncertainties in the prediction of regional climatechange. Geophysical Research Letters. 27., 9., 1295-1298.
Kahya, C., (2000) ; Thermodynamic Climatology at Lower Trioposphere in Turkey, MS. ThesisSupervisor : Prof. Dr. Mikdat Kadõoğlu, İTÜ, Science Institution, ss. 156, Istanbul.
Lindemann,C., (1988):« Soaring Climatology of Thermal Convection »,Technical Soaring,Vol. 12, p95-100.
Michiels and Gabriels, (1996), �Rain Variability Indices for The Assesment of Rainfall Erosivity inthe Mediterranean Region�, Soil degredation and Desertification in Mediterranean Environments, JL. Rubio and a. Calvo eds., Geoforma Ediciones, Logrono.
New, M. G., Hulme, M. and Jones, P. D., 1999. Representing 20th century space�time climatevariability. I: Development of 1961-1990 mean monthly terrestrial climatology, J. Climate,12, 829-856.
New, M. G., Hulme, M. and Jones, P. D., 2000. Representing 20th. Century space- time climatevariability. II: Development of 1901-1996 monthly terrestrial climate fields, J. Climate, 13, 2217-2238.
Piervitali, E., M. Conte and M. Colacino. (1999)- Rainfall Over the Central-Western Mediterranean Basin in the Period, 1951- 1995.II. Precipitation Scenarios. Nuovo Cimento C. 22C. 5. pp. 649 - 661.
Reinhardt, M. E., 1985: �Fallstudien zu Flussmessungen entlang einer Tiefflugstacke Südlich von München DFVLR-Mitt. 85-04, p. 69-79.
Turkeş, M., (1999): �Vulnerability of Turkey to Desertifiation with Respect to Precipitation and Aridity Conditions�, Tr. J. of Engineering and Environmental Science, Vol. 23, p. 363-380.
Wallington, C. E., (1986): �Meteeorology for Glider�, pp. 331, John Murray Ltd., London.