Climate Scenarios and Water Projects at Climate Scenarios and Water Projects at the Canadian Institute for Climate Studies the Canadian Institute for Climate Studies

Trevor Murdock, M.Sc.Trevor Murdock, M.Sc.

tmurdock@uvic.catmurdock@uvic.ca

Canadian Institute for Climate StudiesCanadian Institute for Climate Studies

19 November 200419 November 2004

OutlineOutline1.1. Canadian Institute for Climate Canadian Institute for Climate

StudiesStudies• BC Water Model ProjectBC Water Model Project

2.2. Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios ProjectProject

• Scenarios for water and hydrologyScenarios for water and hydrology

3.3. SummarySummary

Canadian Institute for Climate Canadian Institute for Climate StudiesStudies

www.cics.uvic.cawww.cics.uvic.ca

• 1993 Meteorological Service of Canada and Province of 1993 Meteorological Service of Canada and Province of BC launch CICS to: BC launch CICS to: – ““further the understanding of the climate system, further the understanding of the climate system,

its variability and potential for change and to further its variability and potential for change and to further the application of that understanding to decision the application of that understanding to decision making in both the public and private sectors.”making in both the public and private sectors.”

• 1994-2001 Climate Research Network 1994-2001 Climate Research Network – replaced by Canadian Foundation for Climate and replaced by Canadian Foundation for Climate and

Atmospheric SciencesAtmospheric Sciences

Canadian Institute for Climate Canadian Institute for Climate StudiesStudies

• 1995-present Climate Applications Projects: 1995-present Climate Applications Projects: – Climate Severity Index, Environmental Indicators for BC Climate Severity Index, Environmental Indicators for BC

(Province) and Canada (Canadian Ministers of the (Province) and Canada (Canadian Ministers of the Environment), Industry (Forestry, Natural Gas, Canadian Environment), Industry (Forestry, Natural Gas, Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency), Regional Districts, Environmental Assessment Agency), Regional Districts, ClimExec, Outreach and Education (C-CIARN BC, BC ClimExec, Outreach and Education (C-CIARN BC, BC Climate Exchange, Royal BC Museum), Water Balance Climate Exchange, Royal BC Museum), Water Balance (BC)(BC)

• 1995-present Seasonal Climate Predictions1995-present Seasonal Climate Predictions• 1995-present Climate Network Newsletter1995-present Climate Network Newsletter• 1999-present CCIS Scenarios Project1999-present CCIS Scenarios Project

BC Water Balance ModelBC Water Balance Modelhttp://www.waterbalance.cahttp://www.waterbalance.ca

• Watershed-based approach that integrates Watershed-based approach that integrates the natural and built environmentsthe natural and built environments

• User-friendly online model to inform and User-friendly online model to inform and evaluate land use planning decisions’ evaluate land use planning decisions’ ability to meet stormwater management ability to meet stormwater management objectives, at the scale of the individual objectives, at the scale of the individual development site and the watershed.development site and the watershed.

http://www.waterbalance.cahttp://www.waterbalance.ca

• Low impact development involves reducing impacts Low impact development involves reducing impacts of stormwater runoff using various "source controls“ of stormwater runoff using various "source controls“ whose effectiveness varies with design, precipitation whose effectiveness varies with design, precipitation patterns, soil type, among other factors. patterns, soil type, among other factors.

• Overall performance of source controls of interest to Overall performance of source controls of interest to developers, homeowners & local gov’t.developers, homeowners & local gov’t.

• Canadian Institute for Climate Studies worked with Canadian Institute for Climate Studies worked with BC Water Balance Model to provide option to include BC Water Balance Model to provide option to include information from scenarios of future climate over information from scenarios of future climate over the next centurythe next century

Canadian Climate Impacts & Canadian Climate Impacts & ScenariosScenarios

Project - Brief HistoryProject - Brief Historywww.www.cicscics..uvicuvic.ca/scenarios.ca/scenarios

• Launched in 1999 by Adaptation and Impacts Launched in 1999 by Adaptation and Impacts Research Group of ECResearch Group of EC

• Staff: Staff: – Dr. Elaine Barrow Co-Principal Investigator (AIRG, Dr. Elaine Barrow Co-Principal Investigator (AIRG,

Regina)Regina)– Dr. Philippe Gachon Co-principal Investigator (AIRG-Dr. Philippe Gachon Co-principal Investigator (AIRG-

Ouranos, Montreal)Ouranos, Montreal)– Trevor Murdock Senior Research Associate & Trevor Murdock Senior Research Associate &

Webmaster (CICS, Victoria)Webmaster (CICS, Victoria)– AIRG provides project direction and support staffAIRG provides project direction and support staff– CICS & Ouranos provide support staffCICS & Ouranos provide support staff

Canadian Climate Impacts Canadian Climate Impacts ScenariosScenarios

Project - Brief HistoryProject - Brief Historywww.www.cicscics..uvicuvic.ca/scenarios.ca/scenarios

• To encourage the use of a consistent set of To encourage the use of a consistent set of climate change scenarios by the VIA research climate change scenarios by the VIA research community in Canada:community in Canada:– provide national consistent climate change scenarios provide national consistent climate change scenarios

from several GCMs over Canada and North America from several GCMs over Canada and North America following IPCC guidelinesfollowing IPCC guidelines

– background information, tools, user assistance, background information, tools, user assistance, training, workshopstraining, workshops

– promote nationally-consistent framework for scenario promote nationally-consistent framework for scenario developmentdevelopment

– develop and maintaining a capacity to support VI&A develop and maintaining a capacity to support VI&A researchresearch

– involve scenario user groups in scenarios involve scenario user groups in scenarios development development

Currently over 800 registered users, March 2002 largest sector

was water GeneralHydrology/ waterMeteorologyAgricultureForestryGeographyTransportationEconomicsFisheries

Usage statistics for 2002-Feb 2004

Avg ~20-30,000 page views per month

Canadian Climate Impacts Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios Project - Future PlansScenarios Project - Future Plans

• Current funding ends March 2005.Current funding ends March 2005.• Seeking government & industry Seeking government & industry

consortium funding to expand:consortium funding to expand:– PaleoclimatePaleoclimate– ExtremesExtremes– ObservationsObservations– IndicesIndices– Downscaling toolsDownscaling tools– TrainingTraining– International collaborationInternational collaboration

Canadian Climate Impacts Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios Project - InterfaceScenarios Project - Interface

www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarioswww.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios

SummarySummary

• InstituteInstitute– Individual projectsIndividual projects

• Scenarios websiteScenarios website– Online resourcesOnline resources– Research into use of scenariosResearch into use of scenarios

• Water is one of the major sectors Water is one of the major sectors interested in using climate interested in using climate informationinformation