climate projections: from useful to usability richard b. rood, maria carmen lemos, donald e....
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Climate Projections: From Useful to Usability
Richard B. Rood, Maria Carmen Lemos, Donald E. Anderson
Richard B. Rood734-647-3530
[email protected]://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood
December 15, 2010
Outline
• Introduction of the problem
• Literature review
• Uncertainty fallacy
• Relevance to providing climate data
Lemos and Rood, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews, 2010
Introduction of the problem
• Investigate the perceived gap between the production of climate predictions / projections and their use by practitioners, stakeholders, decision makers etc. – Point of View
• Political scientist and a physical scientist• Literature review: Empirical evidence on the use of climate
projections.– Seasonal forecasts– Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Centers
• Experiential
Evidence for Lack of Use
• Failure to develop policy• Amplification of the language of uncertainty in political
arguments and science research programs• Mixed, both good and bad, outcomes from experiences
of using climate projections / predictions• Misunderstanding and poorly matched expectations of
producer and providers• Lack of understanding of the scope and methods of use
of climate projections / predictions– That is – climate projection information is, indeed, used
There is a range of usability: Informs us on better use
Literature Review
• Based largely on research into the use of seasonal forecasts– For example, choice of seeds for a wet or dry year
• A definition– Useful / Usefulness: scientist’s perception of user’s
needs– Usability: users’ definition of what knowledge can be
readily applied to their decision process
Literature Review: Mixed Results
• Same seasonal forecast– Valuable to resource-rich, market-based irrigated farmer in
Australia – No value to subsidence farmer in Africa with no technological
alternatives
• Lemos and Morehouse (Global Environmental Change, 2005) – usable information– “directly reflects expressed constituent needs, should be
understandable to users, should be available at the times and places it is needed, and should be accessible through the media available to the user community.”
Literature Review: Uncertainty
• What is the role of uncertainty in decision making?– Decisions are always made in the presence of
uncertainty• Physical climate• Policy decisions• Environmental engineering• Land use / Land change / Urbanization• Technological capabilities• Economic impact• Political landscape• ---
Role of Uncertainty
• It is unlikely that a nuance on the quantitative representation of uncertainty is the greatest hindrance to increasing the usability of climate data.
• More sophisticated algorithms, more complete models of complex systems rarely lead to uncertainty reduction.
• Focus on, perhaps:– Uncertainty description– Uncertainty quantification– Process based uncertainty analysis
Politics and Uncertainty
• Amplification of the language of uncertainty in political arguments and science research programs - Selective Doubt
Figure SPM.5
Scientific Investigation Produces:Knowledge of Global Warming
from Projections
Scientific Investigation Produces:Uncertainty of the Knowledge
RESPONSESNone
MitigationAdaptation
Politics and Uncertainty
• Uncertainty is a product of scientific investigation.
• There is always uncertainty.
• Uncertainty can be and is used to fuel political and advocacy positions
Uncertainty Fallacy
• Uncertainty fallacy, that is, a belief that the systematic reduction of uncertainty in climate projections is required in order for the projections to be used by decision-makers.– Follows from
• Review of the use of climate data• Role of climate uncertainty relative to other sources of
uncertainty• Role of uncertainty in political and advocacy arguments
How does this inform providing climate projections?
• Balanced approach to address all of the elements in the knowledge system– Directly addresses practitioner’s needs– Understandable– Available – Accessible– Process-based translation of imperfect projections
• Uncertainty description and application
– Vetted, evaluated, standardized, documented
Systems Definition: Implementation planning
Basic Data
Projection Products
Application’s Community
TasksData Formats for Community
Remapping, regridding Localization (space and time)
Parameters (Penman-Monteith)Indices (e.g. Frich)Ensemble Analysis
Information databasesInformation Portals
TasksInventory of productsInventory of services
Development of experiential base TasksInventory of existing activitiesPartnering of existing activitiesRe-use and interoperability?
TasksEmergence of analysis approaches
Emergence of evaluation approachesCo-generation of solutions
TasksDocumentation of end-to-end problem solving
Extensibility / Scaling UpFeedback to Basic Data
TasksInterfaces to problem solving knowledge base
Process improvement
Some notes from heat wave study
• Can we do better than just saying that it is going to get hotter?
• What is value of nuanced calculations of heat extremes and stress? Is it usable information?
• What is the balance between having to study each case and the ability to aggregate information and develop general strategies?
• What is the minimal level of complexity that must be accommodated?