climate products and services: science challenges, gaps, future edward o’lenic chair, ams...
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Climate Products and Services: Science Challenges, Gaps, Future
Edward O’Lenic
Chair, AMS Committee on Climate Services
Chief, Operations Branch, NOAA-NWS-CPC
Thesis
• A successful climate services Enterprise will require a series of long-term relationships among the members of participating sectors.
• Delivery of useful products should be the focus.
• A continuous flow of iteratively refined requirements from users toward intermediary, operational and research providers will ensure products are useful.
• A strong research component, though of fundamental importance, is only a part of the formula for success.
Challenges from Users Western Governor’s Association (Jones, 2007):
- More accurate, finer-resolution long range forecasts
- Continued and expanded funding for data collection, monitoring and prediction
- Partnerships with federal and state climatologists, RCCs, agricultural extension services, resource management agencies, federal, state and local governments.
USDA ARS Grazinglands Research Laboratory (Schneider, 2002):
- Fewer “EC” forecasts
- Better correspondence between F probability and O frequency
- Forecast more useful than climatology
Current Operational Capabilities
• We have a suite of products, including extreme events for days 3-14, extended-range forecasts for week 2, 1-month and 3-month outlooks.
• These are predicated on the facts that the products have a scientific basis, have skill, and therefore ought to be useful, which is fine, but -
• We have a less-than adequate understanding of user requirements, or actual practical use.
GAPSSome key gaps include:
•Limited understanding of evolving user requirements for climate products in a changing climate,•Lack of a means to acquire an understanding of evolving user requirements,•Insufficient knowledge of the composition and diversity of CPC’s customer base,•Limited support for applied research that leads to new and improved operational climate monitoring and forecast products on intra-seasonal-to-inter-annual time scales,•Lack of success measures that quantify CPC’s delivery of climate prediction products and services,•Traditionally limited computing, IT infrastructure, and budget support to support an ever-expanding, permanent suite of operational products.
GAPSSome key gaps include:
•Limited understanding of evolving user requirements for climate products in a changing climate,•Lack of a means to acquire an understanding of evolving user requirements,•Insufficient knowledge of the composition and diversity of CPC’s customer base,•Limited support for applied research that leads to new and improved operational climate monitoring and forecast products on intra-seasonal-to-inter-annual time scales,•Lack of success measures that quantify CPC’s delivery of climate prediction products and services,•Traditionally limited computing, IT infrastructure, and budget support to support an ever-expanding, permanent suite of operational products.
GAPSSome key gaps include:
•Limited understanding of evolving user requirements for climate products in a changing climate,•Lack of a means to acquire an understanding of evolving user requirements,•Insufficient knowledge of the composition and diversity of CPC’s customer base,•Limited support for applied research that leads to new and improved operational climate monitoring and forecast products on intra-seasonal-to-inter-annual time scales,•Lack of success measures that quantify CPC’s delivery of climate prediction products and services,•Traditionally limited computing, IT infrastructure, and budget support to support an ever-expanding, permanent suite of operational products.
GAPSSome key gaps include:
•Limited understanding of evolving user requirements for climate products in a changing climate,•Lack of a means to acquire an understanding of evolving user requirements,•Insufficient knowledge of the composition and diversity of CPC’s customer base,•Limited support for applied research that leads to new and improved operational climate monitoring and forecast products on intra-seasonal-to-inter-annual time scales,•Lack of success measures that quantify CPC’s delivery of climate prediction products and services,•Traditionally limited computing, IT infrastructure, and budget support to support an ever-expanding, permanent suite of operational products.
GAPSSome key gaps include:
•Limited understanding of evolving user requirements for climate products in a changing climate,•Lack of a means to acquire an understanding of evolving user requirements,•Insufficient knowledge of the composition and diversity of CPC’s customer base,•Limited support for applied research that leads to new and improved operational climate monitoring and forecast products on intra-seasonal-to-inter-annual time scales,•Lack of success measures that quantify CPC’s delivery of climate prediction products and services,•Traditionally limited computing, IT infrastructure, and budget support to support an ever-expanding, permanent suite of operational products.
GAPSSome key gaps include:
•Limited understanding of evolving user requirements for climate products in a changing climate,•Lack of a means to acquire an understanding of evolving user requirements,•Insufficient knowledge of the composition and diversity of CPC’s customer base,•Limited support for applied research that leads to new and improved operational climate monitoring and forecast products on intra-seasonal-to-inter-annual time scales,•Lack of success measures that quantify CPC’s delivery of climate prediction products and services,•Traditionally limited computing, IT infrastructure, and budget support for an ever-expanding, permanent suite of operational products.
Bridging Research, Operations, Users
Assumed User Needs
?
GOVT. PROVIDERS
Use it if you can
Basic data and Forecasts
Basic Research
Bridging Research, Operations, Users
Assumed User Needs
?
GOVT. PROVIDERS
Use it if you can
Basic data and Forecasts
Basic Research
How can these gaps be filled?
• Know WHO stakeholders are and HOW they USE climate products, (relationships),
• LEARN from stakeholders WHAT we need to provide (iterative refinement of requirements, relationships),
• Implement user-, and science-VETTED products, (iterative refinement of requirements, relationships),
• Operational DAY-TO-DAY USER SUPPORT (extension function, relationships, operations, research)
How to Maintain Long-Term Relationships Among Partners?
• Ensure a continuous flow of requirements from users toward research.
• Active dialogue among producers and users, and iterative solution of problems related to requirements.
• Annual meeting among components• The only “permanent” member is the government, so it
must ensure stability and continuity of the system in the face of an evolving private and university sector.
• “Climate Extension” function, operated by the government. Software (FET,CLIDDSS) may help meet this need.
This does NOT mean simply doing on-line surveys!
How to Maintain Long-Term Relationships Among Partners?
• Ensure a continuous flow of requirements from users toward research.
• Active dialogue among producers and users, and iterative solution of problems related to requirements.
• Annual meeting among components• The only “permanent” member is the government, so it
must ensure stability and continuity of the system in the face of an evolving private and university sector.
• “Climate Extension” function, operated by the government. Software (FET,CLIDDSS) may help meet this need.
RISA – Working model for intermediary climate services.
Bridging Research, Operations, Users
Intermediary Applications Products (CTB-RISA/PRIVATE/RCC/SC-SBIR)
USER NEEDS IDENTIFIEDDecision-Support Development
?
GOV PROVIDERS (CPC/EMC)NCEP/NCDC/USGS
CTB SUPPOPRT
Use refinement
TransferUser-Vettedproducts
GOV PROVIDERS
Technical Refinement
Use it if you can
Basic data, Forecasts
Basic Research: Models, MME, Statistical Methods
GOVOPS
PRIVATEOPS
TransferUser-Vettedproducts
O2R: Model Test Facility
R2O: CTB
users
Basic Research
O2R
R2O
RE
QU
IRE
ME
NT
SR
EQ
UIR
EM
EN
TS
Assumed User Needs
Forecast Evaluation Tool: Example of a Means to Address Gaps
What FET and CLIDDSS provide:
• User-centric forecast evaluation and data access and display capability.
• Leveraging of community software development capabilities.
• Opportunity to DISCOVER, collect, and invest in user requirements.
FUTURE: Implement FET at CPC
FUTURE: Implement FET at CPC
A Wide Variety of Skill Renderings of 3-Month
Outlooks
P T
A
A
A
A
A
A
B B
B
B
B
B
FUTURE of the FET Next 6 months:• Finalize and implement FET project plan at CPC.• Ellen Lay (CLIMAS) to train CPC personnel on FET version
control and bug tracking at CPC, November 12-14, 2008.• Necessary software (APACHE TOMCAT, JAVA, Desktop View)
acquired and installed at CPC.• Forecast, observations datasets in-place at CPC.• FET code ported to CPC, installed, tested.• FET installed to NWS Web Operations Center (WOC) servers
FUTURE of the FET +
In partnership with CLIMAS and community we will add:
• Other forecasts and organizations• Time and space aggregation options• Significance tests/cautions to users• Requirements requests option• Questions option
CTB User-Centric Forecast Tools Progress
• Simple Object Access Protocol (SOAP) Tested
• Secured Go-Ahead to Place FET on NWS Web Operations Center (WOC)
• Trained CPC Staff in JAVA language
• Scheduled Ellen Lay Training session in Nov.
The stakes are high…..
Source: The Washington PostOutlook Section, July 13, 2008
Summary
• Users want partnership, accuracy, specificity, flexibility• “Relationship” is synonymous with “partnership”• Producers must learn WHO users are, HOW they use products and
WHAT their evolving requirements are• Need to involve users and producers in iteratively optimizing products
implemented and avert VOD.• A continuous flow of requirements from users toward research may
avert VOD.• Means to fund an ever-expanding, perpetual product suite needed and
avert VOD.• Stakes are high: 6 of top 20 news/media June 2008 sites were
weather-related. 10s-100s of B$ at stake. Climate will only add to this.