climate outlook – 2011/2012 nadraki weather [email protected]
TRANSCRIPT
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El Nino / Southern Oscillation
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Normal conditions
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Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)
SOI is the standardised anomaly of the Mean Sea Level Pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin. It is calculated as follows:
[ Pdiff - Pdiffav ] SOI = 10 -------------------
SD(Pdiff) where Pdiff = (average Tahiti MSLP for the month) - (average Darwin MSLP for the month),Pdiffav = long term average of Pdiff for the month in question, andSD(Pdiff) = long term standard deviation of Pdiff for the month in question.
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South Pacific Convergence Zone
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Neutral
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El Nino
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La Nina
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References
NIWA Island Climate Update 132 - September 2011
Http://www.niwa.co.nz/node/102804
ENSO Observations www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Fiji Climate Outlook http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/Outlook.
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Climate is what you expect, weather is what
you get Day to day weather is highly variable in
the Pacific.
Large ocean areas and small landmass means minor movements of weather systems can have significant impacts.
It only takes one cyclone to ruin your day!