climate modelling, predictions and projections
TRANSCRIPT
www.bsc.es Mexico DF, 26 August 2015
Francisco J. Doblas-ReyesBSC Earth Sciences Department Director
ICREA Research Professor
Climate Modelling, Predictions and Projections
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Temperatures in Barcelona airport from the ECAD dataset.
An example of what is going on
2014
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Radiative forcing in the representative concentration pathways (RCP)
Scenarios of concentration
RCPs describe the impact on the global energy balance of the human activity under different socio-economic scenarios.
Differences between the RCPs are clear after 2030.
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Figure SPM.7a: Global average surface temperature change
Global-mean temperature
Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed 1.5°C relative to 1850 for all
scenarios.
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Figure SPM.8a,b: CMIP5 multi-model mean spatial distribution
Temperature and precipitation
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Figure SPM.7c: Global ocean surface pH
Ocean acidification
The ocean acidification is one of the clearest signals of the anthropogenic climate change.
A spatial distribution of the change is also found.
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Figure SPM.9: Global mean sea level rise
Sea level
Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century even under mitigation scenarios.
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Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.
Figure SPM.10: Temperature increase vs cumulative carbon emissions
The clock is ticking
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Decadal climate prediction
Predictions Historical simulations
Observations
Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV)
Global mean surface air temperature (GMST)
• C3S Climate Projections Workshop: Near-term predictions and projections, 21 April 2015Doblas-Reyes et al. (2013, Nat. Comms.)
The initialized simulations reproduce the temperature trends and the AMV variability and suggest that initialization corrects
the forced model response and phases in the internal variability.
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SST averaged over the subpolar gyre to estimate basin-wide accumulated cyclone energy (ACE). The results are for 1-5 year averages 1961-2006. Statistically significant scores are in bold.
Service-driven predictions
• C3S Climate Projections Workshop: Near-term predictions and projections, 21 April 2015Caron et al. (2015, GRL)
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What is coming up
The Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is opening the way to a new generation of experiments that will
feed into the AR6.
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Service-driven climate research
Climate data is not climate
information