climate impacts on washington state
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Climate Impacts on Washington State:An Overview of Key Risks
Climate Science in thePublic Interest
Amy Snover, PhD
Director, Climate Impacts Group Assistant Dean, Applied ResearchUniversity of Washington
WA Senate Energy, Environment & Telecommunications Committee28 January 2014
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Addressing Climate Change
Mitigation Adaptation
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The UW Climate Impacts GroupScience for climate resilience
Catalyzing the development &application of climate science indecision making
Scientific synthesis and assessment
Identifying emerging climateimpacts, risks, and vulnerabilities
Locally-specific climate changedata for planning purposes
Adaptation planning expertise
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Climate mattersExpectations about climate are embedded in our economy, infrastructure,and management of natural systems.
Significant changes in PNW climate are expected
These changes are a result of rising greenhouse gas emissions.
Climate change will affect many important systems in Washington
Affected systems include water resources, forests, species and ecosystems,oceans and coasts, infrastructure, agriculture, and human health.
Adaptation can reduce climate risks
We have the knowledge and tools to begin adapting to climate impacts.
Key Conclusions
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Climate expectations
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Washington and the Pacific Northwest have experiencedlong-term warming, a lengthening of the frost-freeseason, and more frequent nighttime heat waves.
Observed Trends: PNW Climate
Average annual temperature has increased +1.3 F, 1885-2011
Frost-free season has lengthened 35 days (+6 days), 1885-2011
No discernible long-term trend in precipitation
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Spring snowpack varies year-to-year but declined ~25% fromearly/mid-20th century through early 2100s
Most Washington glaciers declined during the 20 th century
Spring peak streamflow shifted earlier by up to 20 days, dependingon location (1948-2002)
Observed Trends: PNW Hydrology
Long-term changes in snow, ice, and streamflows reflectthe influence of warming.
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Sea level is increasing on average, although results vary by location
Declining sea level found in the few areas where tectonic upliftcurrently exceeds the rate of global sea level rise observed to date
Observed Trends: Regional Sea Level
Sea level is rising along some parts of the Washingtoncoastline and falling in others.
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Observed Trends: Oceans
The coastal ocean is acidifying and some local inshorecoastal waters are warming.
Ocean acidity in Washingtons marine waters has increased +10% to+40% since 1800
Significant warming in coastal surface ocean temperatures observedin the Strait of Georgia and west of Vancouver Island (+1.4F, 1970-2005)
No significant warming of coastal surface ocean temperaturesoffshore of North America, 1900-2008
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Rapid WarmingProjected
Figure source: Climate Impacts Group, based on projections used in IPCC 2013;2050 projections from Mote et al. 2013
2050s(relative to 1950-1999)
Low emissions
(RCP 4.5)
+4.3 F
(2.0-6.7
F)High emissions
(RCP 8.5)+5.8 F
(3.1-8.5 F)
Projected Change in Average Annual PNW Temperature(relative to 1950-1999 average)
All scenarios indicatewarming in the 21 st century
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Modest increases in average annual precipitation projected in mostscenarios.
Seasonal patterns reinforced.Wetter fall, winter, and spring; driersummers likely.
More frequent heavy rainfall eventsexpected.
Wetter an d Drier ConditionsProjected
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Three Major Threats
As identified in Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities (Dalton et al. 2013)
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Water: Too much & too little
As identified in Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities (Dalton et al. 2013)
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All Scenarios Indicate Less Snow
-44% M e d i u m
E m i s s i o n s
S c e n a r i o
-29% -65%
Apr. 1 Snow Water Equivalent1916-2006
Why? Spring snowpack is projected to decline as more winter precipitation falls as rain rather than snow,especially in warmer mid-elevation basins. Also, snowpack will melt earlier with warmer spring temperatures.
Elsner et al. 2010
s s s
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winterrains
summersnowmelt
springpeak
October April September
Shifting Streamflows Yakima Basin
Naturalized flows (without the influence of dams); Elsner et al. 2010
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October April September
Yakima Basin
Shifting Streamflows 2020s
Naturalized flows (without the influence of dams); Elsner et al. 2010
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October April September
Yakima Basin
Shifting Streamflows 2040s
Naturalized flows (without the influence of dams); Elsner et al. 2010
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October April September
Yakima Basin
Shifting Streamflows 2080s
Naturalized flows (without the influence of dams); Elsner et al. 2010
f
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Decreased summer hydropowerproductionSummer production falls -10% by the 2020s, -15% by the2040s, -20% by the 2080s, while summer air conditioningdemands increase up to 400% (vs. 1917-2006)
Decreased irrigation supplyreliability and increased demandRisk of water short year (75% level of prorating) in theYakima increases from 14% (1970-2005) to 32% (2020s),36% (2040s), and 77% (2080s) for current demand
Reliability of municipal watersupplies varies
Analyses by central Puget Sound water suppliers findsufficient supply through at least 2050. Impacts on othersuppliers and groundwater supplies unknown.
Implications for Water Management: Water Supply
li i f
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Implications for Water Management: F l o o d i n g
Increased Flood Risk West of theCascades
Warming increases flood riskin many western WA basins.
For example, in the Skagit (forthe 2040s):
the historical 100-year event
becomes a 22-year event the historical 30-year event
becomes an 7-year event
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Forests: fire, insects & drought
As identified in Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities (Dalton et al. 2013)
I li i f F M
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Increased wildfire risk Area burned by fire in the Columbia River Basin isprojected to double by 2020s, triple by 2040s, x5 by2080s (relative to median for 1916-2006).
Increased risk of insect outbreaksIncreased risk of mountain pine beetle outbreaks in drierforests will exacerbate fire risk.
Ecological, economic, and humanimpactsLong-term transformation of forest landscapes.Management challenges and air quality impacts,particularly at the urban/wildland interface.
Implications for Forest Management
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Projected suitability changes: Lodgepole pine
Data: Rehfeldt et al.
Littell et al. 2010
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Littell et al. 2010
Projected suitability changes: Lodgepole pine
Data: Rehfeldt et al.
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Sea level rise, flooding, erosion
As identified in Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities (Dalton et al. 2013)
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Sea Level Rise Projectedin All Scenarios by 2100
Projected Range, Seatt le Relative to 2000 (NRC 2012)
2030 -1.5 to +8.8 inches
2050 - 1.0 to +18.8 inches
2100 +3.9 to +56.3 inches
Implications for Coastal Management
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Loss of land to rising seasMore than 140,000 acres of coastal lands lie within 3.3
feet elevation of high tide in WA & OR, exposing publicand private property, infrastructure, and habitat to climateimpacts.
Multiple factors compound impacts Sea level rise + river flooding + high tide + coastal storms+ subsidence = erosion + landslides + flooding +permanent inundation +
Risks to property, public safety,coastal ecosystemsPrivate and public property, urban and transportationinfrastructure viability and functioning, toxics mobilization,
ecological resources, habitat restoration
Implications for Coastal Management
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Low-lying Areas at Risk
Olympia Seattle
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Agriculture is fairly adaptable,although some crops andlocations are more vulnerableWA state agriculture is projected to be affected bywarming temperatures, rising carbon dioxide, andchanges in water availability.
Health impacts stem from a wide
range of climate change impactsLikely to see increased rates of heat related illnesses(including heat exhaustion and stroke); respiratoryillness (e.g., allergies, asthma); vector-, water-, andfood-borne diseases; and mental health stress.
Additional Risk Areas:Agriculture and Human Health
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What is Ocean Acidification?
Sarah R. Cooley ([email protected])
Carbon Dioxide(CO2)
Climate change
Ocean acidification
The ocean absorbs ~ 25 % ofcarbon dioxide emitted byindustry and deforestation.
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What is Ocean Acidification?
This creates an acid,which lowers pH &decreases carbonatelevels in the ocean.
Sarah R. Cooley ([email protected])
Carbon Dioxide(CO 2)
Climatechange
Ocean
acidification
d f
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Ocean acidity is increasingOcean acidity has increased 30% and projected to increase100-150% by 2100. The primary global cause is increasingcarbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Local factors (upwelling,nutrients, organic carbon) contribute to acidification in WA.
Increased mortality for shell-formingorganismsOcean conditions are making it more difficult for shellfishand other organisms that use calcium carbonate(calcifiers) to make hard body parts. More than 30% ofPuget Sounds marine species are calcifiers.
Marine food webs impactedKey species in the marine food web (e.g., pteropods) areaffected by acidification. Many commercially andecologically important species affected.
O c e a n A c i d i f i c a t i o n
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Climate matters
Significant changes in PNW climate are expected
Climate change will affect many important systems in Washington
Adaptation can reduce climate risks & Washington is uniquely
poised to do so
Key Conclusions
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Can we achieve our goals in a changingclimate?
What is necessary to reduce risks associatedwith a changing climate?
How do we avoid creating new risks ?
What opportunities should we prepare for?
Building Climate Resilience Through Adaptation: Ask the Climate Questions
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National leaders need to get seriousabout slowing climate change. But thecountry must also plan to adapt to awarming world, anticipating not just thehistorically unusual, but also thehistorically unprecedented.
Washington Post Editorial Board, October, 31 2012In the wake of Hurricane Sandy
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UW Climate Impacts Groupwww.cses.washington.edu/cig
Climate Science in thePublic Interest