Climate, Ecosystems, and Fisheries

A UW-JISAO/Alaska Fisheries Science Center Collaboration

Jeffrey M. Napp

Alaska Fisheries Science CenterNOAA Fisheries

FAQS

• Collaborations address NOAA Strategic Goals 1 & 2.

• Two administrative mechanisms: straight JISAO and JISAO/School of Aquatic and Fisheries Science.

• Involves two of the three Divisions at the Seattle campus of the AFSC.

• Presently about 8-10 JISAO projects at the AFSC. • Funding from a variety of sources including

SSLRP, NPCREP, FATE, NPRB

Ecosystem-Based Scientific Advice

Ecosystem-Based Scientific Advice

State-of-the-Art Population Assessments including uncertainty

State-of-the-Art Population Assessments including uncertainty

Research on Effects of Fishing on HabitatResearch on Effects of Fishing on Habitat

Improve understanding of Climate effects on Ecosystem Production

Improve understanding of Climate effects on Ecosystem Production

Development and Improvement of Predictive

Models Development and Improvement of Predictive

Models

Research on Ecosystem Effects of FishingResearch on Ecosystem Effects of Fishing

P. L

ivin

gsto

n

Cold

-175 -170 -165 -160

54

56

58

60

0 2 4 6 8

50

50

100

Warm

-175 -170 -165 -160

54

56

58

60

0 2 4 6 8

50

50

100

Mean Species Distributions

Mean bottom temperatures in warm/cold years

In cold years, cod areblocked offshore from thecapelin by coldwater mass.No species interaction.

In warm years, thermalgateways open, allowing cod to enter the nearshorecapelin habitat and feed, opening new speciesinteractions. K

. Bai

ley

Changing Climate & Populations

Thermal Experience

Temporal Diet Composition

Prey Energy Density

Consumer Size &

Growth

Predator Energy Density

Bioenergetics Model

Consumption Estimate

ConsumerSize Structure& Abundance

PopulationConsumption

Mazur & Wilson

S. Hinckley

An Ecosystem Approach to Management

Physical Forcing

BiologicalInteractions

Management

Status of Stocks and Ecosystem

Catch LevelClosed AreasDiscardsGearEffort

+

+

Modified from P. Livingston

IndicesModels

Observing Systems

Predict

Understand

Development and Improvement of Predictive Models

Development and Improvement of Predictive Models

100% from pelagic

100% from benthic

Energy Source

(A) EBS

(B) WBS

P. Livingston

Individual based model for walleye pollock in Gulf of Alaska to study recruitment

variability

0

5

10

15

20

25

70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

Julian days

mm

olN

m-3

N03 data

N03 model

0

4

8

12

16

20

70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

Julian days

mg c

hla

m-3

chla data

chla model

0

200

400

600

800

70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

Julian days

num

m-3

Neocalanus dataNeocalanus model

Food model NPZ for pollock

Coupling models

SPEM

Juvenile Index

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Year class

Modele

d J

uvenile I

ndex w

eig

thed

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Age-2

assesm

ent

billions

Modeled juvenile index weigthed Age-2 assesment

IBM

Larval Index

0

30000

60000

90000

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Year class

Larv

al I

ndex

wei

gthe

d

00.511.522.533.54

Rec

ruitm

ent

( A

ge-2

fro

m

mod

el a

sses

men

t)

larval index weigthed Model assesment Age-2

NPZ

The correlation between larval index and Age-2 stock assessment during late 70’s to late 80’s was 0.79

R2=0.79

Poor correlation between juvenile index and Age-2 stock assessment after late 80’s.

Need to include food (Euphausiids) and predation and account for more juvenile behavior

Shifting control recruitment

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

Julian days

num

m-3

Pseudocalanus dataPseudoocalanus model

Hydrodynamic model output:

Salinity, temperature, velocity fields

Wildebuer et al., (2002)

Ecosystem Effects of Fishing: Ecosystem Indicators

Ecosystem Effects of Fishing: Ecosystem Indicators

Eastern Bering Sea

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999

Tota

l cat

ch (t

)

1

2

3

4

Trop

hic

leve

l (ca

tch)

Total catch

Trophic level ofcatch

Fish community size spectrum

3.16

3.65

3.98

4.23

4.42

1982 19

85 1988 19

91 1994 19

97 20000

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

ln (N +1)

ln (length midpoint +1)

Year

Size frequency distribution all fish

11.000-12.000

10.000-11.000

9.000-10.000

8.000-9.000

7.000-8.000

6.000-7.000

5.000-6.000

4.000-5.000

3.000-4.000

Total catch and trophic level of catch

Understanding and forecasting ecosystem response to changing climate of the North Pacific

North Pacific Climate Regimes and Ecosystem ProductivityNorth Pacific Climate Regimes and Ecosystem Productivity

Fisheries Acoustics Research Laboratory

• To understand and apply acoustic technologies to fisheries management and aquatic ecology. 

• To quantify and understand spatiotemporal distributions, dynamics, and interactions of aquatic organisms.

Walleye Pollock predicted backscatter at 70 kHz

(J. Horne, unpublished)