Climate Change Mitigation and The Kyoto Protocol

Dave Reay

GHGonline.orgCopyright © 2003

Rio, Kyoto and beyond

1988 WMO and UNEP establish the IPCCThe UN general assembly takes up climate change for the first time

1990 IPCC’s first assessment reportSecond World Climate ConferenceUN general assembly and convention

Feb 1991 INCC meets for first time

9 May 1992 UN framework convention on climate change adopted in New York

4 June 1992 Convention opened for signature at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

21 March 1994 Convention enters into force, after receiving 50 ratifications

7 April 1995 COP1 launches a new round of negotiations on a ‘protocol or another legal instrument’

11-15 Dec 1995 IPCC approves second assessment report on science of climate change - underlines strong action needed

19 July 1996 COP2 takes note of the Geneva Ministerial Declaration, which acts as further impetus to on-going negotiations

11 Dec 1997 COP3 adopts the Kyoto Protocol to the UN framework convention on climate change in Kyoto, Japan

The FCCC

‘stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic human

induced interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed

in a sustainable manner’

1988 WMO and UNEP establish the IPCCThe UN general assembly takes up climate change for the first time

1990 IPCC’s first assessment reportSecond World Climate ConferenceUN general assembly and convention

Feb 1991 INCC meets for first time

9 May 1992 UN framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC) adopted in New York

4 June 1992 Convention opened for signature at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

21 March 1994 Convention enters into force, after receiving 50 ratifications

7 April 1995 COP1 launches a new round of negotiations on a ‘protocol or another legal instrument’

11-15 Dec 1995 IPCC approves second assessment report on science of climate change - underlines strong action needed

19 July 1996 COP2 takes note of the Geneva Ministerial Declaration, which acts as further impetus to on-going negotiations

11 Dec 1997 COP3 adopts the Kyoto Protocol to the UN framework convention on climate change in Kyoto, Japan

Rio, Kyoto and beyond

What’s a COP?

1988 WMO and UNEP establish the IPCCThe UN general assembly takes up climate change for the first time

1990 IPCC’s first assessment reportSecond World Climate ConferenceUN general assembly and convention

Feb 1991 INCC meets for first time

9 May 1992 UN framework convention on climate change adopted in New York

4 June 1992 Convention opened for signature at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

21 March 1994 Convention enters into force, after receiving 50 ratifications

7 April 1995 COP1 launches a new round of negotiations on a ‘protocol or another legal instrument’

11-15 Dec 1995 IPCC approves second assessment report on science of climate change - underlines strong action needed

19 July 1996 COP2 takes note of the Geneva Ministerial Declaration, which acts as further impetus to on-going negotiations

11 Dec 1997 COP3 adopts the Kyoto Protocol to the UN framework convention on climate change in Kyoto, Japan

The Kyoto Protocol

Annexe 1 Rich countries

Annexe 2 Includes developing countries

The Kyoto Protocol

Article 2: Ways to fight increasing GHG

Article 2.1.a.i

Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national

economy

Article 2.1.a.ii

Protection and enhancement of sinks

Article 2.1.a.iii

Promote sustainable agriculture

Article 2.1.a.iv

Research and promote new and renewable energy

Article 2.1.a.v

Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’

Article 2.1.a.vi

Encourage ‘good practices’

Article 2.1.a.vii

Limit GHG from transport

Article 2.1.a.viii

Limit methane emissions through recovery and use

Article 2.1.b

Cooperate

Article 2.2.

Cut GHG from aviation

Figure 6-8: Atmospheric CO2 (ppmv) accumulated from aviation’s use of fossil fuel beginning in 1940.

Article 2.3.

Be careful of wider impact - avoid adverse effects

Article 3.1

Keep to assigned amounts of GHG with overall worldwide reduction by

at least 5% below 1990 levels by 2008-2012

Article 3.2

Everyone must have shown progress by 2005

Article 3.3

Verifiable changes since 1990 in GHG emissions by sources and removals by sinks due to direct

human-induced land-use change and forestry can be used to meet

commitments

Article 3.4

Everyone must supply their level of ‘carbon stocks’ in 1990 so the change

since can be estimated. BUT what sinks, sources and ‘additional

activities’ which can be added or subtracted from GHG reduction

commitments?

Article 4

Countries can meet their commitments together

Article 5

All countries will have in place, at least a year before the first

commitment period (2008), a national system for measuring GHG emission

changes

Article 6

Joint implementation -Countries can work together to meet their emission

reduction targets

Article 7

All countries will supply the extra information needed with the numbers it gives i.e. perceived wider impacts

Article 8

All the information given by each country will be reviewed by expert,

independent, review teams

Article 9

The protocol will be regularly reviewed in light of the best

information available at the time

Article 10

All countries should develop national and/or regional programmes to both

limit GHG emissions and improve the quality of GHG data via consistent

methods. Cooperate

Article 11

The richer countries will provide funds and technology to developing

countries to help them better advance towards GHG reduction

Article 12

The Clean Development Mechanism

Article 12

Richer (annex 1) countries can help developing countries to achieve

sustainable development and limit GHG increases and then claim some

emission reductions for their own targets

Article 12.5

(a) Voluntary participation by each country

(b) Real, measurable, and long-term benefits related to mitigating climate

change

(c) Reductions must be additional to those which would occur anyway

Article 17

Emissions trading - countries can trade in ‘emission units’

11 Dec 1997 COP3 adopts the Kyoto Protocol to the UN framework convention on climate change in Kyoto, Japan

16 Mar 1998 Kyoto Protocol opened for signature at UN headquarters in New York. Receives 84 signatures in a year

14 Nov 1998 COP4 adopts the ‘Buenos Aires plan of action’ to strengthen the Convention and prepare for Protocol enforcement

13-24 Nov 2000 COP6 meets in The Hague, the Netherlands, to take key decisions on the convention and the protocol. Talks break down..

23 July 2001 COP6a Global warming accord reached at Bonn by more than 180 countries. US notable by its absence

The Economic benefits of the Kyoto protocol

Nature 413, 478-479 October 2001A key objection raised by opponents of the Kyoto Protocol is that

compliance to the target of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions by 5.3% by 2012 would impose an unacceptable economic burden. Based on an analysis of alternative scenarios for electricity generation over the next ten years, De Leo et al. conclude that if the costs in terms of damage to

human health, material goods, agriculture and the environment caused by greenhouse gas emissions are included in the equation, the economic

argument against Kyoto is untenable.

11 Dec 1997 COP3 adopts the Kyoto Protocol to the UN framework convention on climate change in Kyoto, Japan

16 Mar 1998 Kyoto Protocol opened for signature at UN headquarters in New York. Receives 84 signatures in a year

14 Nov 1998 COP4 adopts the ‘Buenos Aires plan of action’ to strengthen the Convention and prepare for Protocol enforcement

13-24 Nov 2000 COP6 meets in The Hague, the Netherlands, to take key decisions on the convention and the protocol. Talks break down..

23 July 2001 COP6a Global warming accord reached at Bonn by more than 180 countries. US notable by its absence

29 Oct 2001 COP7 in Marrakesh, Morocco - moves to ensure the key 55% emissions target is reached

August 2002 ‘Rio +10’ ‘Earth Summit 2002’, ten years on from the 1992 ‘Earth summit’ Little progress on energy use -EU go it alone.

2004 Kyoto protocol in force? - money being made, increasing pressure on Bush to change his mind.

October 2002 COP8 In New Delhi

2008-2012 First commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol

October 2003 Climate change conference in Russia - will they ratify?

What came out of Bonn 2001?•The proper management of forest and farmland carbon sinks can be

included

•This heavy allowance for sinks could reduce the real worldwide commitment form 5.2% to 1.8%

•No legally binding penalties for failing - to keep Japan and Russia in

•Aid for developing countries for ‘sustainable development’ totalling £370m a year (50% form the EU)

What Next?• If Russia ratifies then the Kyoto Protocol will come into force