Climate Change its impact: Issues and Implications

Dr. Murali G. RanjitkarVisiting fellow- NASC

Definition of climate change

The Feature of Climate Change

Climate Change and its Impact on Infrastructures Development

Climate Change: The Global Warming

Himalayas, More Vulnerable to Climate Change

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Table of Content

Nepal, More Vulnerable to Climate Change

Impact of Climate Change: Stress and Vulnerability

Impact of Climate Change: Irrigation

Impact of Climate Change: Agriculture

Impact on other Infrastructure development

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The Policy Climate Change: Climate Change: The Adaptation Methods

Initiatives for Climate Change Adaptation

Conclusions Some Recommendations

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Climate, an Overall Atmospheric Environment; a Nature’s Safeguard System to all Living beings on the Earth

A Dynamic Phenomenon creating a dynamic balance within the ecology and ecosystem of species and vegetations

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The balance between the major ingredients for species including human being [Oxygen (O2)] and the vegetation [Carbon dioxide (CO2)], and other players such as Nitrogen (N2), Methane (NH4) and others

The Change in these atmospheric ingredients and the consequent imbalance or new type of balance among them leading to uncomfortable impact on the overall living beings on the Earth

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Climate Change is primarily associated with the vertical shift in temperature, rainfall pattern and humidity.

The dynamic equilibrium within the solar system and among such systems in the galaxy or the celestial universe suggests that such change is a normal phenomenon.

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However, the emission of green house gases (GHG) has been found to aggravate the situation by triggering corrosion in the ozone layer that encircles and guards the earth atmosphere for all living beings.

Now, with the emissions going on unabated, the climate change feature has surfaced and felt more than ever.

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All the infrastructure development is not possible without water.

Change in source water, surface or underground, directly affects on infrastructure development.

About 75 – 80% of rainfall takes place during four months (June-September) of the year resulting in highly uneven fluctuations to the rivers and streams.

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With Climate Change, owing to heating, the waters at the sources would either dry up or deplete causing stress at the downstream.

The stress eventually would lead to dispute and conflict.

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Economic based on Natural resources, Agriculture and Tourism

Sensitive to Flood, Landslide, Soil erosion and Drought

Limited resources to control natural calamities

Remote areas- Not so accessible for prompt service and rescue

Low community awareness, specific study and research on climate change

Lack of effective plan and programAdapting Climate Change in

Irrigation Sector 15

The statement that Nepal is more vulnerable to climate change is founded on that 87% of the country’s terrain is mountains and Himalayas.

Nepal is expected to experience an annual rise in temperature of 0.06 0C. in coming years

The overall trend is towards warming drier years ahead.

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One burning example has come in the news (Republica, June 1, 2010): In the first recognized case of climate change refugees in Nepal,

The entire village of Dhe (HH: 23; Population: 150) in Sukhang VDC in Upper Mustang, is being resettled in Thengchung in Lower Mustang.

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Rise in Temperature Predictions based on Regional Climate Models:◦Temperatures in Indian Sub Continent will rise by between 3.5 – 5.5 0C by 2100

◦Temperatures in Tibbetan Plateau, by 2.5 0C by 2050 and 5 0C by 2100

◦With 2 0C rise in temperature by 2050, 35% of the present glaciers will have melt resulting in increase in the runoff.

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The region known as Greater Himalaya is the source of the nine largest rivers in Asia, the basins of which are home to over 1.3 billion people (ICIMOD, Technical Paper, 2007)

Approximately 2.4 billion people live in the drainage basin of the Himalayan Rivers (Prof. Dr. Bidur Upadhyay, THT, June 3, 2010)

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Adapting Climate Change in Irrigation Sector 21

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The Himalayan rivers of Nepal contribute about 40% of the average annual flow in the Ganges basin; and about 70% of the flow in the dry season

Mean temperatures decline by about 1 0C per 160m elevation (longitude) compared with 1 0C per 150 Km by latitude.

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3 Effects: ◦“The sources of water have completely dried up.”

◦“It is getting extremely difficult for people to even arrange two meals a day”

◦There is hardly any greenery to be seen around the village, which just seven years back used to be very green.” Amchi Tenjin Dharke.

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Besides, much of Nepal’s soils are exposed to extra vulnerability owing to their

steep slopes, deforestation erratic precipitation high floods

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Clearly from the Mustang example, the first stress is on the declining water flow in source rivers

The stress is then transferred down to agriculture, greenery, infrastructure development and to the living of the people in general

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On the other hand, again, stress is also developed owing to thunderstorms, the emergent high floods and the droughts along with their frequencies

All these, increase the exposure to the risk and vulnerability to the infrastructures development

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Warming trend: Stress due to water resource depletion at source

Water sufficiency will be hampered Wetland will dry up and greenery will decline

Infrastructure may become useless On the contrary, retreat or melting of the glaciers will cause high flood flows in snow-fed rivers posing challenge to the previous designs and estimates of the infrastructures

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Unpredictability: Unexpected thunderstorms and

cloudbursts will cause unpredictable flash floods leading to soil erosion and endangering the infrastructures

Hailstones and storms will destroy the crops

Droughts will cause severe stress and overturn the hard-earned balance between water source, irrigation and the cropland

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◦The duration between sowing and harvesting of the crop will shorten causing an adverse effect on its productivity, ex. apple

◦Shift in flower blossoming season, ex. rhododendron (shifted to from Chaitra back to Poush)

◦Rise in temperature and humidity gives rise to proliferation of the anti crop insects and fungi

◦Evapotranspiration, photosynthesis and biomass production is changed

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Warming Trend◦ Land suitability is altered

An Opportunity: “Carbon fertilization effect”◦ Increased CO2 levels lead to a positive growth

response for a number of staples under controlled conditions

Unpredictability◦ Almost all crops are vulnerable to the

unpredictable precipitation, thunderstorms and droughts

◦ In the year 2010, Mustang has reported expectation of around 50% increase in apple production; normal monsoon predicted.

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Increase in temperature Change in precipitation Melting of glacier Soil carbon stock Increase in photosynthesis Upward movement in biomass Alteration in species composition

Adapting Climate Change in Irrigation Sector 32

Road development Urban development Hydro power development Water supply and sanitation development

Industrial development Tourism development Local development activities

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Study the climate change trend particularly the temperature change (rise or fall) in relation with elevation (longitude) and the horizontal distance (latitude)

Also, identify the risk and vulnerable zones in relation to the high flood flows, debris flows, GLOF, avalanches and landslides

Design and adopt suitable technologies, techniques and practices for all infrastructure

Design and adopt suitable crops, cropping pattern and cropping methods

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Nepal Government initiated the efforts towards conserving environment since the Sixth Periodic Plan

The efforts have been more focused towards climate change and its adaptation in Second Three Year Interim Plan (2010 – 2013).

Initiatives to raise awareness about climate change and temperature rise to be specific have been conducted and shall continue

Programs for National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) have been initiated and shall continue in wider spectrum

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The Second TYIP aims at encouraging the concept of Green Development and thereby minimizing the adverse effects of the climate change and adapting with the changes by making development works and human activities more environment friendly

It intends to check the urban pollutions and maintain the natural beauty of the rural areas

Irrigation, Agriculture, Soil Conservation and Hydrology/ Meteorology sectors will be encouraged to coordinate among each other.

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Not much has been done for infrastructure projects

For, agriculture projects and schemes, new technology and techniques such as zero tillage, shifting the sowing period, etc can be adopted.

A dilemma. More vegetation contributes to bringing a balance in atmosphere. More area will be required for more vegetation such as farming or afforestation. But, more people owing to population growth will need more land to be developed for housing and cropping.

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National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) Office has been established

IEE and EIA studies have been made mandatory for all the infrastructure development projects to ensure that the natural environment is not damaged and to make sure that at least minimum requirements of environment conservation and climate change adaptation, if any are maintained while implementing them.

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National policy on climate change National Adaptation Program of Action

(NAPA) Local Adaptation Program of Action

(LAPA) National Climate Change Support

Program(NCCSP) Alternative energy promotion program Pilot project on Carbon trading, Climate

adaptation Awareness program on climate change

Adapting Climate Change in Irrigation Sector 39

United nation Framework Convention on climate change (UNFCCC)-1992- Sign 154 country

Kyoto Protocol-1997- World Convention on GHG reduce @ 5.2% with respect to 1990

Climate adaptation fund for developing country

Adapting Climate Change in Irrigation Sector 40

Climate Change has direct and adverse implication on infrastructure development

Adapting climate change in irrigation and agriculture sectors is a challenge

With climate change gradually showing its adverse effects, the risk reduction and adaptation initiatives are a must

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Plan, design and implement infrastructure development projects ensuring not to deteriorate rather to enhance or at least maintain the minimum environmental balance

Plan adaptation measures along with mitigation ones.

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Plan and Allocate certain budget for the research and studies for climate change and devising adaptation frameworks

Establish a working network among Infrastructure development sector road, Hydropower, irrigation, disaster prevention, hydrology-meteorology and soil conservation sectors

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Thank you