climate change is due to ocean variations – not co 2 william m. gray department of atmospheric...
TRANSCRIPT
CLIMATE CHANGE IS DUE TO OCEAN VARIATIONS – NOT
CO2
William M. GrayDepartment of Atmospheric
Science
July 2014
There is no scientific
justification for the CO2 global warming
hypothesis.
FAMOUS NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCE STUDY (1979)
(The Charney Report)
Doubling CO2 will lead to global
∆T of 1.5-4.5°C (~3°C)
Due to positive water-vapor feedback ∆T ∆ moisture reduced global OLR (IR)
∆CO2 RH const.
1°C 2°C = 3°C WARMING
- grossly unrealistic
REALITY
GCMs
IR
0
IR
0
AS PRECIPITATION AND DEEP
CONVECTION INCREASE
ENHANCED
SUPPRESSED
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
PR
ESS
UR
E (
mb)
10 0.5 qs
10 2 qs
10 5 qs
10x550
10x220
10x.55
30 x 8
Rain 165
Cb
RH = 75/240 = 31%
Rain Eff. = 165/240 = 69%
75 vapor subsidence
8 qs
Net 240 Condensation
More IR14 -
12 -
11 -
10 -
ALT
ITU
DE (
km)
1/4 1/16
10 km
UPPER TROPOSPHERE
Lapse-Rate
191 198198
Wm-2
water- vapor
water- vapor
T = 243oK
T = 241oKht
ht
241o 243o
24
IR
0.2 g/cm2
191 Wm-2
0.2 g/cm2
IR
DRY
WET
COLD WARM
Wm-2
Temp.
HOW UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SUBSIDENCE CONTROLS UPPER MOISTURE CONTROLS THE
EMISSION LEVEL AND IR FLUX TO SPACE
Moist
Dry
MORELESS
0Vertical Motion (ω) GRID SPACE
– ω
– ωωd – ωu
IR = 2
RH = High
IR = 4
RH = 60%RH = 100%
GCM grid ω
Sub-grid up & down
motion concentration
MOIST
DRYER
Δq ΔRH
Change in specific humidity (%) Change in relative humidity (%)
Pres
sure
(hPa
)
Pres
sure
(hPa
)
HANSEN – early model
+ 6%+ 50%
Changes for a doubling of CO2
WAY TOO MUCH VAPOR
Top of Atmos.
Sfc.
2 X CO2 Restriction
Sen. Heat 0.5
Evap. 2.5
IR 0.7
3.7
Equilibrium Response
3.7
Double CO2
= 3.7
3.7 IR
3.7
ΔT = 0.2-0.3°C 3% ↑
342 Solar
342 IR +
Albedo
GCMs
Projected Reality
Net Global Warming
Direct CO2 Warming
∆ Vapor and Cloud Feedback
Warming
Net Global Warming
Direct CO2 Warming w/Rainfall
∆ Vapor and Cloud Negative
Feedback
1oC2oC
3oC
0.5oC
-0.2oC
0.3oC
DOUBLING CO2
SURFACE VALUES
DEEP OCEAN CIRCULATION
CHANGES FROM SALINITY VARIATIONS
S. Pole N. Pole
Ocean Mean
+3oCCURRENT Poles and
Ocean Cold
mixing mixing
S. Pole N. Pole
CRETACEOUS PERIOD Poles
and Ocean Warm
mixing mixing
Ocean Mean
+17oC
THC (or AMO)
STRONG
THC (or AMO)
WEAK
1 2
3
H
H
Courtesy of John Marshall (MIT)
SAS SAS
THC
~~~~~~~~~~Solar +25
MOC = -25
~~~~~~~~~~Solar +25
MOC = -35
~~~~~~~~~~Solar +25
MOC = -15
-25
-35
- 15
Mixed Layer Thermocline
Mixed Layer
Mixed Layer
SP NP
SP NP
SP NP
MEAN
∆E = 0
∆E = - 10
∆E = + 10
THC STRONG
THC WEAK
COOLING + More Rain
more upwelling
WARMING - Less Rain less
upwelling
Steady State
1510
15
5
20
10
MORE UPWELLING
COOLING
LESS UPWELLING
COOLING
More Rain
Less Rain
GLOBAL COOLING
GLOBAL WARMING
extrapolated
19981880 1910 1940 1975 2030
Multi-Century
Multi-Decadal + Multi-Century
Multi-Century
TEMPTEMP
0THC
?
mean
neg. ?
Multi-century + decadal
THC+THC+
THC+
THC-THC-
19TH Century 20TH Century
Globe Cooler Globe Warmer
21st NOAA Climate Workshop, Huntsville, AL (1996)
FORECAST OF GLOBAL CIRCULATION CHARACTERISTICS IN THE NEXT 25-
30 YEARSWilliam M. Gray(written in 1996)
We expect that these changing Ocean (or MOC) patterns will lead to a small global surface temperature cooling. The mean global surface temperature change in the next 20-30 years will be more driven by nature than by anthropogenic influences
and be one of weak cooling, not warming.
• The Ocean, not CO2 increase is the primary driver for climate change.
• CO2 increases are beneficial.
• Climate research must become free of political domination.
Wm. M. Gray climate change
papers for Heartland
Conferences:ICCC3 – 2009 (NY)ICCC4 – 2010 (NY)
ICCC7 – 2012 (Chicago)ICCC9- 2014 (Las
Vegas)http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/