CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, VULNERABILITY &

ADAPTATION ACTION

5th WWF, Istanbul TURKEY16-22 March 2009

Chris Moseki* & Rashid Khan***Water Research Commission; **Dept of Water Affairs & Forestry

FOR EFFECTIVE RESILIENCE AGAINST CC IMPACTS, VULNERABILITY

ASSESSMENT SHOULD PRECEED ADAPTATION

ACTIONMEASURES UNDERTAKEN IN THE CONTEXT OF EXISTING

SITUATION

POORLY RESOURCED NATIONS HAVE VERY LOW ADAPTIVE

CAPACITY

• Already situated in drought prone areas, most developing countries are relatively more vulnerable to climate effects

• These poorly resourced communities, depend on the natural environment (which is overexploited) for livelihoods

• The situation is worse due to other stressors (lack of access to resources)

The Process followed…

• Communities’ sustained livelihoods guided the process of the investigations: – Consider current/indigenous adaptive

strategies used by affected communities– Assess the degree to which those strategies

are effective in addressing the problem (note successes & gaps);

– Recommend remedial measures (provide climate info/data & tools) for reinforcement

Small-scale rural farmers in the Muden area of KZN

• 4 groups (block comm. Chairs, farmers, extension officers & locals) were interviewed

• Constraints to livelihoods and capacity to cope with climate-related issues emerged from the results of the research interviews

Muden area in KZN

Small-scale rural farmers in the Muden area of KZN (2)

• Human capital (labour)• Bulk of the workforce comprise women (>50yrs)• Few farmers in the field (sickness & mortality)• Lack of knowledge regarding markets & info

(planting dates, fertilizer types, etc)

• Social Capital (networks, relationships)• Each block of farm-land has a block committee• Comm. links to DoA through extension officer• Issues raised at meetings are rarely addressed

(water management, crop eating goats & infrastructure problems)

Small-scale rural farmers in the Muden area of KZN (3)

• Natural Capital (resource stock)• Plots allocated by local induna (headman) &

water accessed through the irrigation scheme• Poor quality often during low flows• Failure to adhere to scheduled watering days

often cause problems to downstream users

• Physical Capital (infrastructure & goods)• Infrastructure entails canal, the weir, small

storage dams and the tractor (owned by DoA)• Relationships strained by “poor service delivery”• Lack of transport, lack of access to markets

Commercial farmers vulnerability assessment

• Factors that enhance risks identified– Climate variability & extreme events– Environmental degradation– Sugar price, currency & taxes (financial

sustainability)– Subsidies by foreign countries & trade– Sustainability of sugarcane farming versus

increased variability in rainfall, etc

• Responses to survey questions

Research issues and objectives for vulnerability assessments (Wall et

al., 2004)Theme Research Objective

Current conditions Identify conditions that are beneficial and/or problematic to the

system under investigation.

Current capacity Assess how successful management strategies are for

adapting to stress and/or opportunities.

Determine effectiveness of policy and programs in assisting

producers with their adaptation measures.

Future Conditions Assess the likelihood that there will be changes in the trends

and magnitude of beneficial and/or problematic conditions.

Future capacity Assess adaptive capacity to meet future risks and

opportunities.

Assess the suitability and viability of current policy and

programs to meet future requirements

PHYSICAL LIMITS

• No more dam sites• No more water

• Physically feasible but politically, socially or environmentally difficult

• Capacity of organisations• Capacity of individuals

After Arnell (2005) and Schulze (2007)

FINANCIAL LIMITS

CAPACITY LIMITS

FEASIBILITY LIMITS

ADAPTATIONi.e. Adjustment to

altered circumstances

LIMITS TO ADAPTATION

Climate Monitoring & awareness On farm

trials

Preparedness workshopsReports

Greenhouse/nursery trials

Knowledge, Data, Tools

Implementation

Capacity Building & Awareness Raising

Evaluation and Monitoring

Assessments

“Mainstreaming” Adaptation

ADAPTATION FRAMEWORK

RESEARCH

ACTION

Adapted from Kabat & Warrick, 2003 & Schulze, 2007

Assessment Implementation

Tolerated loss62%

Changed location

0%

Spreading and sharing of losses 12%

Selling of assets

6%

Diversification15%

Other5%

How did you cope with losses?

Yes73%

No27%

Has your type of farming and type of crop grown changed over the years?

Thank you