Climate Change: Impacts,

Solutions, and Perceptions OLLI January 2013

Note that some of the slides for this lecture have

been removed to be in compliance with the

directive of the IPCC of not publishing draft results

of Assessment Report #5

Climate Change: Impacts,

Solutions, and Perceptions

• Gary Oberts and Dennis Silverman, moderators

• Joint Program of UCI OLLI, George Mason

University OLLI, and NOAA (National

Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration

- Climate Change Office)

• Filmed at GMU OLLI spring 2011

• Conduct of class

• Series of eight DVDs

January 7

– The discovery of global warming - a history of climate change.

– James Fleming, Colby College History Department

• January 14

– What is the state of the climate today? – Deke Arndt, Chief, Climate Monitoring Branch, NOAA National

Climatic Data Center

• January 21

– What is the difference between “weather" and "climate"? – Dr. Wayne Higgins, Director, NOAA Climate Prediction Center

• January 28

– How global climate change impacts the United States

– Anthony C. Janetos, Director, Joint Global Change Research Institute (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland)

Climate Change: Impacts, Solutions, and

Perceptions – Fall 2012 (part 1)

• February 19

– Ocean acidification and the increase of greenhouse gases.

– Dr. Christopher L. Sabine, Oceanographer, NOAA Pacific Marine National Laboratory, Seattle

• February 26

– America’s choices for mitigation of climate change impacts – Robert W. Fri, Resources for the Future and Claudia Mengelt,

National Research Council (NAS)

• March 5

– Ethics and issues surrounding geo-engineering as a strategy to mitigate climate change

– Dr. Michael MacCracken, Climate Institute, Washington, D.C.

• March 12

– American attitudes and opinions on global warming

– Dr. Matthew Nisbit, American University, School of Communication

Climate Change: Impacts, Solutions, and

Perceptions – Spring 2013 (part 2)

Major Information Sources

• NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin.)

• IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – United Nations Environmental Program and World Meteorological Organization, 195 member countries)

• NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration), and JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory)

• National Academies (Science and Engineering) and its National Research Council (NRC)

• U.S. Global Change Research Program (13 Fed. Agencies)

• CA Climate Change Center (core research at Scripps and UCB) and Climate Action Team (state agencies)

• National Science Foundation

• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

• Climate peer-reviewed literature

Data Collection Techniques

Tem

pera

ture

Weather

“Weather” vs. “Climate”

Time

Climate Change: Impacts, Solutions, and

Perceptions – Opening Remarks

2012 Climate Year

• Record Arctic ice loss and record acceleration of

Greenland and west Antarctica melt

• “Unprecedented” Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy,

losses $70B+ and rising; 11 weather related

events over $1B in damages; 350 lives lost

• Two record US heat waves; hottest July ever

(recorded since mid-1800s)

• From June 2011 – Sept. 2012 every month had

“above normal” average temperature (record)

• Biggest drought over grain belt since 1950s

• Above average fire season in US west

21st Century Year

Rank 1 = Warmest Period of Record: 1880–2011 Anomaly °C Anomaly °F

2011 11 0.51 0.92

2010 1 (tie) 0.64 1.15

2009 7 (tie) 0.58 1.04

2008 13 0.50 0.90

2007 7 (tie) 0.58 1.04

2006 6 0.59 1.06

2005 1 (tie) 0.64 1.15

2004 9 0.56 1.01

2003 4 0.61 1.10

2002 5 0.60 1.08

2001 10 0.54 0.97

2012

~8th

21st Century (2001–2011) Annual Temperature

Ranks Since 1880

NOAA/NCDC

Some Factors Influencing Climate

• Greenhouse gasses (GHGs) – CO2, methane (NH4), nitrous oxides (N2O), water

vapor, halocarbons (CFCs), ozone (O3)

• Vegetation (coverage and type)

• Ocean circulation

• Ice/snow (presence, reflection/albedo)

• Volcanic activity (can help cooling but minimal lately)

• Solar radiation variation (no change since 1978)

• Earth tilt (obliquity) and rotation around the sun (eccentricity)

Adapted from NAS, 2008

500-900??*

Last ice age peaked

~20,000 years ago,

sea levels about 390’

(120m) lower

Sea levels 13-20’ (4-6m)

higher than today with

temps 5-9ºF higher

(~2100 prediction)

Reference dates

- Today 393 ppm

- IPCC 2007 380

ppm

- IPCC 2002 360

ppm

*AR5 “most likely” estimate

Dec. 2012 = 393 ppm

Avg. peak CO2 levels for last

400,000 years = 280 ppm

Graphs from the Hadley Climate Center in England