Climate Change Impacts on Cattle in Austria Revealed by THI-Models to Support Integrated Land

Use Models

Martin Schönhart, Imran Nadeem Institute for Sustainable Economic Development & Institute of Meteorology

University of Natural Resources and Live Sciences, Vienna

LiveM Livestock Modelling and Research Colloquium

Bilbao, 15 October 2014

CATMILK

Integrated land use models from an economic perspective

Land use

and livestock

management decision

…integrating disciplinary knowledge to answer complex

questions of (agricultural and forestry) land use

Management options

Resources

Land use

choices

Policies

Markets

Environmental

outcome Livestock

choices

feedbacks and inter-linkages

direct drivers

Global change

Typical management options for bio-physical modelling

e.g. Kirchner et al., 2014

Modelled average climate change impacts on Austrian agriculture

- relative changes of

gross margins

- 4 RCM simulations

- 3 adaptation and

policy scenarios

Schönhart et al. (2014)

Livestock

- all major production activities are included

- differentiation among production system (i.e. conventional vs. organic production)

- [differentiation of housing and manure management]

- links to crop production

- choices on optimal feed Indirect climate change impact from feed availability

Example of direct climate change impact: heat stress

Source: Armstrong(1994)

Methodology and Data

1. Regionally downscaled climate change data (RCM ALADIN driven

by GCM ARPEGE with SRES A1B) at daily resolution

2. Statistics on cow numbers, milk yields and prices

3. Estimation of temperature humidity index (THI)

4. Estimation of milk yield losses above critical THI threshold at NUTS3 level

5. Economic valuation of milk yield losses

6. Sensitivity analysis

Climate change data

- RCM ALADIN driven by GCM ARPEGE with SRES A1B

- Periods: 1951-1980 & 2071-2100

Represented THI models

Tdb dry bulb temperature

Tdp dew point temperature

Tmax maximum temperature

Tmin minimum temperature

RH relative humidity

RHmax relative humidty during Tmax

RHmin relative humidty during Tmax

taken from Walter and Löpmeier (2010)

Basic assumptions

• uniform average temperature at national level (AT) and per NUTS3

• milk yield of suckler cows valued by 50% milk price

• Herd size remains unchanged

• THI models transferable and applicable

• THI threshold and milk yield loss taken based on Kolb (2012)

• THI threshold and milk yield loss applicable to all THI models

Critical scenario parameters Low Base High

milk yield loss per THI point (liter/THI) 0.20 0.25 0.30

critical THI threshold 72 69 67

milk price (€/kg) 0.20 0.30 0.40

1951-1980 2071-2100

Average values for 5 THI models

Grey line indicates critical THI threshold assumed in base scenario

Distribution of daily THI values at AT level and for periods 1951/1980 and 2071/2100

Grey line indicates critical THI threshold assumed in base scenario

Distribution of daily THI values at NUTS3 level and for periods 1951/1980 and 2071/2100

THI values above 69 from 1951-2100 for model NRC

Loss of production value (€) at national level from climate change 2071/2100

Loss of production value (% of total production) from climate change 2071/2100

Discussion on results

• Economic losses are between 0% and -1.9% in 2071/2100 depending on – the THI model

– basic parameter assumptions (scenarios)

• Losses in the base scenario: -0.29% & -0.34% – for plausible parameter assumptions and

– plausible THI models

• This seems reasonable – study for Lower Saxony (GER): negative impacts on dairy yields are in

the range of -0.1% to -0.4% until 2100

Discussion on methods

• Choice of THI model should take climate conditions into account (see Bohmanova et al., 2007)

• THI thresholds and yield losses likely are THI model dependent

Conclusions

• Direct climate change impacts on livestock appear small compared to indirect impacts from changing feed availability in Austria

• Uncertainties from the parameters and models are considerable (~ factor 40) but choice of “plausible” results can reduce uncertainty (~ factor 10)

• Integration of a THI model into integrated land use models is straightforward – Impacts on relative competitiveness of dairy and suckler cow production compared to other

livestock and cropping activities…

– …but requires consideration of direct climate change impacts on all livestock activities to prevent biases

• Adaptation options likely decrease the impacts but must be economically feasible (only low tech. options)

• Impact on grazing unclear: heat stress (-) vs. extended vegetation periods (+)

• Studies like this can guide research foci

THANKS!

Institute for Sustainable Economic Development | martin.schoenhart@boku.ac.at

© M. Schönhart

Research to this presentation has been supported by the project CATMILK (Austrian Climate Research

Programme) and by the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management of Austria

within the FACCE-JPI Knowledge Hub MACSUR.

References

Armstrong, D.V., 1994. Heat Stress Interaction with Shade and Cooling. Journal of Dairy Science 77, 2044–2050.

Bohmanova, J., Misztal, I., Cole, J.B., 2007. Temperature-Humidity Indices as Indicators of Milk Production Losses due to Heat Stress. Journal of Dairy Science 90, 1947–1956.

Kirchner, M., Schmidt, J., Kindermann, G., Kulmer, V., Mitter, H., Prettenthaler, F., Rüdisser, J., Schauppenlehner, T., Schönhart, M., Strauss, F., Tappeiner, U., Tasser, E., Schmid, E., 2014. Ecosystem services and economic development in Austrian agricultural landscapes - The impact of policy and climate change scenarios on trade-offs and synergies. Ecological Economics, (under review).

Kolb, C., 2012. Einfluss von Klimaelementen auf Milchparameter unter Bedingungen der Vollweidehaltung von Milchkühen. Universität für Bodenkultur, Wien.

Martinsohn, M., Hansen, H., 2013. Ökonomische Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die niedersächsische Milchproduktion. Berichte über Landwirtschaft 91(3).

Schönhart, M., Mitter, H., Schmid, E., Heinrich, G., Gobiet, A., 2014. Integrated Analysis of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Measures in Austrian Agriculture. German Journal of Agricultural Economics 63, 156–176.

Walter, K., Löpmeier, F.-J., 2010. Fütterung und Haltung von Hochleistungskühen. 5. Hochleistungskühe und Klimawandel. vTI Agriculture and Forestry Research 60, 17–34.