climate change impacts and potential adaptation strategies in watersheds in the philippines
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Climate Change Impacts and Potential Adaptation Strategies in Watersheds in the Philippines. Rodel D. Lasco Professor University of the Philippines. 7 Steps of Climate Impacts and Adaptations Assessment (UNEP, 1996). 1. DEFINING PROBLEM. SELECT METHOD. 2. 3. TEST METHOD/SENSITIVITY. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Climate Change Impacts and Potential Adaptation Strategies in Watersheds in the Philippines
Rodel D. LascoProfessor
University of the Philippines
7 Steps of Climate Impacts and Adaptations Assessment (UNEP, 1996)
DEFINING PROBLEM
SELECT METHOD
TEST METHOD/SENSITIVITY
FORMULATE INPUTS ANDASSUMPTIONS
ASSESS BIOPHYSICAL AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS
ASSESS AUTONOMOUS ADJUSTMENT
EVALUATE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
APF Project Example (UNEP, 2003)
1. Scope project design
2. Assess Current Vulnerability
3.Characterise Future Climate-related Risks
4. Develop Adaptation Strategy
5. Continue Adaptation Process
EngageStake-holders
IncreaseAdaptivecapacity
Water Resources
Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources
Increase in volume Decrease in streamflow Increase severity, frequency and
variability Increase in soil erosion and
sedimentation Increase in the demand for water
Table 1. Changes in precipitation, temperature, and runoff for Angat water reservoir from three GCMs (based on 2xCO2)
Source: Jose et al., 1996
GCM Change in Precipitation
Change in Temperature
(°C)
Change in Runoff
CCCMUKMOGFDL
-6%3%
15%
+2.0+3.1+2.4
-12%5%
32%
Comparison of Observed and Calibrated Daily Streamflow
-5.0000
0.0000
5.0000
10.0000
15.0000
20.0000
25.0000
30.0000
35.0000
40.0000
12/1/96 1/20/97 3/11/97 4/30/97 6/19/97 8/8/97 9/27/97 11/16/97 1/5/98 2/24/98
DATE
Str
eam
flow
(m2/s
)
OBSERVED CALIBRATED
Increase water supply Modify vegetation Impoundment Reduce evaporation Water importation
Adaptation Strategies
Decrease water demand Decrease water demanding activities Behavioral change Water reuse Recycling Economic instruments
Adaptation Strategies 2
Manage supply and demand Synchronize cropping systems to
match water availabilityMaximize multiple use of water
Adaptation Strategies 3
Table 5 Supply and demand adaptation strategies for the water resources sector of the Philippines
Source: Cruz, 2002
Supply Adaptation Demand AdaptationComprehensive watershed managementWater allocation system and procedures
Enhanced irrigation efficiencyLow water use crops and efficient farming practicesRecycling (reuse) of waterImprovement of monitoring and forecasting systems for floods and droughtsWater pricing policies and structuresEnhanced awareness of climatic change and variability
Forest resources
Impacts on Forest Resources in the Philippines most of the forest resources of the country are
in watershed areas tropical forests will likely expand as
temperature and precipitation increase Increased forest clearing due to:
Droughts and floods Inc population and dec in arable lands
Increase vulnerability to fires
T change may lead to a loss of a few species of plants and animals
changes in T and precipitation may result to the outbreak of pests and diseases
Potential Adaptation Options (IPCC, 2001) Forest management used to long term
decisions under uncertain future market and biological conditions
Most adaptation will occur under managed forests
Salvaging dead and dying timber Replanting with species better suited to new
climate Planting genetically modified species Intensifying or decreasing management
Exotics vs indigenous species?
Biodiversityconservation