Climate change impact assessment and agricultural land and agricultural land use decision making in the ... Rainfall –Runoff model ... Saptial analsys - Land use

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  • Climate change impact

    assessment and agricultural

    land use decision making in the

    Vietnamese Mekong Delta

    Nguyen Hieu Trung1, Van Pham Dang Tri1, Truong Chi Quang1,

    Huynh Xuan Hiep 2, Alexis Drogoul3

    1College of Environment and Natural Resources (CENRes), Can Tho University;

    Campus 2, 3/2 street, Ninh Kieu district, Can Tho city, Vietnam. e-mail:

    nhtrung@ctu.edu.vn2College of Information and Tele Communication (CITC), Can Tho University.

    3 IRD, UMI 209, UMMISCO, IRD France;

  • Contents

    The Mekong Deltas agriculture land use

    change driving factors.

    CC impact assessment

    Agricultural land use decision making

    the IRD-CTU research team: Decision-

    support Research for Environmental

    Applications and Models (DREAM)

  • Fast land use change in MRD

    Department of Land Resources, Can Tho University, 2013

  • Agriculture land use change driving factors

    Saline intrusion 1998 (dry year)

    Dry season Rainy season

    We

    st

    se

    a

    Long river from very high elevation (~4000m) to the sea level (0.5 - 1m).

    70-80% of the precipitation concentrated into four months annual flood

    in rainy season.

    Tides: East sea is semi-diurnal (amplitude: 2.5 3.0 m), and West Sea

    tide is diurnal (amplitude: 0.4 1.2 m) annual saline intrusion in dry

    season.

    Autonomous adaptation (farming techniques, new short duration rice,

    new crop, aquaculture, integrated farming techniques)

    Plan adaptation (flood and salinity control system)

  • Over exploitation of ground water (for

    urban, industry and rural) Saline

    intrusion in ground water and

    Land subsidence.

    (Source: Erban et al., 2014)

    Agriculture land use change driving factors

  • Existing irrigation projects Planned irrigation projectsExisting, under-construction

    and proposed hydro-power

    projects

    Cross boundary water competition

    Agriculture land use change driving factors

  • Sea level rise: East Sea: Average 4.7

    mm/year (1993-2009) Projected to

    2050: + 30 cm; 2100: + 70 cm

    Future climate change and sea level rise

    Agriculture land use change driving factors

  • Regional development

    Increase accessibility need:

    both physically (e.g. road)

    and non-physically (data,

    information, knowledge)

    Increase resource demands

    (both natural and socio-

    economic)

    Complex land use and resource

    planning an interactive land

    use planning approach

    Agriculture land use change driving factors

  • Contents

    The Mekong Deltas agriculture land use

    change driving factors.

    CC impact assessment

    Agricultural land use decision making

    the IRD-CTU research team: Decision-

    support Research for Environmental

    Applications and Models (DREAM)

  • CC impact assessment

    Basin/regional scale:

    Flood modeling

    Saline intrusion modeling

    Sub-ecological scale:

    Flood zone modeling

    Coastal zone modeling

    Field scale:

    Crop modeling

  • Rainfall Runoff modelSWAT

    Integrated Quantity and Quality Model(IQQM)

    Water demand

    Hydro-power dev.

    Agriculture dev.

    Hydraulic model Water quality model

    (from Kratie, Mike 11)

    Upstream scenarios

    Mekong delta development scenarios

    Sea level rise scenarios

    Water management scenarios

    Saptial analsys- Land use- Inundation- Salinity intrusion

    Results- Changes of inundation area- Changes of saline inundation area

    Temporal analysis- Probability- max- min- Averahe

    Results- Changes of discharge- Change of salinity level

    Socio-economic scenarios

    Impact to

    saline

    intrusion

    Upstream

    boundary:

    flow at

    Kratie

    Downstream

    boundary(SIWRR, 2012)

  • Scenario 1 - SLR 30 cm

    Scenario 2 (worse case) =

    Scenario 1 + upstream

    projects, dry year)

    Scenario 3 = Scenario 2 +

    structural intervention

    (larger river mouse sluice

    gates Saline iso-line (4 g/l)Source: Mekong Future project (Collaboration with CSIRO)

    Impacts to saline intrusion (dry season)

  • (Van Pham Dang Tri, et.al. 2012)

    Longer flood duration (2000

    vs 2050)

    Two groups of flooding:

    Upstream of Mekong

    Delta by Mekong river

    flow.

    Coastal of Mekong Delta

    by tide, especially the

    west coast (more than 4

    months).

    Impact to flood (rainy season)

  • Contents

    The Mekong Deltas agriculture land use

    change driving factors.

    CC impact assessment

    Agricultural land use decision making

    the IRD-CTU research team: Decision-

    support Research for Environmental

    Applications and Models (DREAM)

  • (Mekong future project, 2010-2012)

    Agricultural land use decision making

  • Current land use

    Biophysical

    Land

    Evaluation

    Suitability and yield/LMU

    Available capital Available labor

    Available land area

    LUTs cost/LMU

    Require labor/LUT/LMU

    Production priceSocio-economic analysis

    Data management tools

    Land use analysis tools

    (Optimization)

    Visualization tools

    Soils

    , wat

    er (

    inu

    nd

    atio

    n, s

    alin

    ity)

    LMU

    Decision support information (graphs, maps, tables, reports)

    LU allocation of scenario 1

    Hydraulic models

    (Trung, et. al. 2014)

    Research theme 5. CLUES project

    Agricultural land use decision making

  • (Trung et. al., 2014)

  • Contents

    The Mekong Deltas agriculture land use

    driving factors.

    CC impact assessment

    Agricultural land use decision making

    the IRD-CTU research team: Decision-

    support Research for Environmental

    Applications and Models (DREAM)

  • the Decision-support Research for

    Environmental Applications and

    Models (DREAM) research team

    To enhance the cooperation among relevant

    colleges (CENRes, CIT, CNS ) and IRD in applying

    modern information technology and mathematical

    solutions for sustainable development of the VMD.

    Tools for interactive LUP approach could be

    applied in the context of the VMD.

  • Activities of DREAMs LUP team

    Project: Adaptation to Climate Change: Land-use Innovative Models Applied to

    Environmental management (ACCLIMATE)

    Organization of training on ABM (GAMA) + GIS + Hydrological models.

    Insertion of the three Master modules in existing curricula in CTU

    Supervised PhD and MSc subjects from College of Information Technology and

    College of Environment and Natural Resources

  • A multi-disciplinary research team on LUP in CTU.

    Good facilities for training and research.

    An ABM model (GAMA) on land use decision making.

    A server ready for WebGIS and DBMS.

    Join training and workshop with PEERS project.

    Join publications.

    Activities of DREAMs LUP team

  • Current land use

    Biophysical

    Land

    Evaluation

    Suitability and yield/LMU

    Available capital Available labor

    Available land area

    LUTs cost/LMU

    Require labor/LUT/LMU

    Production priceSocio-economic analysis

    Data management tools

    Land use analysis tools

    (Optimization and ABM) Visualization tools

    Soils

    , wat

    er (

    inu

    nd

    atio

    n, s

    alin

    ity)

    LMU

    Decision support information (graphs, maps, tables, reports)

    LU allocation of scenario 1

    Participatory planning precision farming

    Hydraulic models

    Participatory

    monitoring

    Future development: Interactive and real-time land use management DSS

    Sensor network

  • Contact: Nguyen Hieu Trung, Assoc. Prof. Dr.

    email: nhtrung@ctu.edu.vn

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