DEREK PAUL

CLIMATE CHANGE

Facts, Strategies, Choices and Innovations

(Accepted 6 January 1997)

ABSTRACT. Canada’s Action Plan is the federal response to its internationalobligation under the UN Framework Convention of 1992 whereby Canada mustreduce its greenhouse gas emissions to the 1990 level by the year 2000. ThePlan is failing completely, because of its essentially voluntary nature. Overall,greenhouse gas emissions will have increased 13 per cent in Canada between1990 and 2000, four per cent more than the population increase for that period.Five other plans studied by government agencies are projected to fail to achievethe called-for reductions in emission. An analogous plan, the Rational EnergyPlan, developed by a network of nongovernment organizations, is projected toenable the federal government to achieve its obligations under the FrameworkConvention and also its further obligations under the 1995 Berlin Mandate. ThisPlan has been analyzed using the government’s own analytical tools which projectthat it will offer Canada substantial annual increases in employment for at least tenyears, more prosperous households for more than ten years, and a smaller federaldeficit for at least eight years. The federal government has no viable alternative toadopting this plan as soon as practicable. This paper explains some of the neededpreliminaries to introducing the Plan, together with examples of tax-shifting and ofeasily implemented stick-and-carrot inducements to making the Plan work in a seaof partly hostile provinces (Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario and Newfoundland).The Plan will not be easy to implement because of necessary changes in humanhabits of thinking and attitudes. A new and simple strategy for reducing fuelwastage on highways is introduced in this paper; and also the concept of extendedcogeneration, the Rational Energy Plan itself being a particularly fine example.

PART 1. THE STATUS QUO

INTRODUCTION

The quality of life for the majority of the human race will be affectedby climate change during the next century. For the luckier ones thechange may not be drastic, but for some it will mean loss of theirland to the sea or to floods, or facing constant shortages because ofdrought, for example.

Social Indicators Research 42: 117–149, 1997.c 1997 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands.

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Maurice Strong said not long ago that attention to climate changeis a first priority. As I began the study, the truth of this became clear.It is a major challenge because the hardest things to change are habitsof thinking, and it is precisely these that stand in the way of a healthyfuture for the human race, not only with regard to climate change,but also many other global problems. It is also a priority becausesome changes require a long lead time, so that it is important to startearly in order to avoid disaster. Climate change is one such problem,and it is urgent to begin addressing it.

A good example of the rewards of attending to problems accordingto urgency is world response to ozone depletion in the stratosphere.The Montreal Protocol of 1987, and the good level of adherence to itinternationally, has given the world a reasonable expectation that thedepletion will cease between 1998 and 2001, and that thereafter thestratospheric ozone will slowly recover. But even this success willbe reversed if developing countries fail to apply the strict standardsfor abolishing and controlling use and recovery of ozone-depletingchemicals. The ozone layer depletion is thus not a solved problem,but it has been demonstrated to be solvable, notwithstanding all thehuman obstacles in the way of such a solution.

The climate change problem is more difficult by far because itinvolves emissions of very commonplace greenhouse gases, andseveral of these are natural products in the biosphere, produced byvery normal and commonplace activities. Also climate change willbe brought about by complex chemicals some of which are nowbeing used to replace ozone-depleting chemicals in industrial anddomestic applications.

The Earth’s biosphere is a complex living system, continuallyabsorbing and emitting energy to keep itself alive.1 The primarysource of energy received is radiation, ultraviolet, visible, andinfrared, from the Sun, while the waste energy emitted by thebiosphere into outer space, to keep itself cool, is composed mainlyof infrared radiation of somewhat longer wavelengths than the aver-age of what comes in. A greenhouse gas (ghg) is one that, placed inthe atmosphere, absorbs the radiation that the Earth is emitting, thustrapping energy in the atmosphere.

The leading greenhouse gas is water vapour. It is different from allthe others because it also forms clouds, and clouds reflect much of the

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TABLE IGlobal warming potential referenced to the updated Bern carbon cyclemodel keeping CO2 atmospheric concentrations constant

Species Lifetime Global warming potential20-year 100 years

CO2 Variable 1 1Methane 12 56 21Nitrous oxide 120 280 170HFC compounds 1.5–48 460–9199 140–11 700SF6 3200 16 300 23 900CFC compounds 2600–50 000 4400–6200 6500–9200

Data taken from “The Science of Climate Change”, Working Group I,Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Table 4. Lifetimesfor CFC compounds given here are hugely greater than those given in thereport EPS 5/AP/4 of Environment Canada (1990).

primary, incoming radiation. Thus clouds complicate the picture andmake it difficult for mathematical models to predict climate changeaccurately. If the other ghgs lead to warmer air and warmer oceans,thus to more evaporation and more cloud, the cloud may counteractsome of the temperature rise. It is likely we will have cooler daysand warmer nights, but still with an overall result of global warming.From here on we shall not refer further to water vapour as a ghg,because it is not one we shall want to be controlling, except in thesense of limiting the melting of the Earth’s ice caps.

THE SCIENCE OF MEASUREMENT AND CLIMATE-CHANGEPREDICTION

Scientific statements, coming from the experimental sciences arestatistical in nature. That is to say, all numerical results carry withthem statistical uncertainties. There is always a chance that a resultwill differ from a global average2 by so-and-so much, and the differ-ence (deviation) is governed by a probability distribution. Eventhough statements made about climate change are uncertain, it isno longer merely possible that changes are taking place as a resultof the increasing presence of atmospheric CO2, it is very likely thatthe results are already with us.

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Figure 1. CH4 concentration in the atmosphere from 1000 to the 1980s, adaptedfrom IPCC 1994 by Environment Canada in SOE report No. 95-2.

Some important features of the science of climate change can beunderstood by studying Table I and Figures 1–6. Table I shows therelative global warming potential of various ghgs relative to CO2,with CO2 normalized to 1 in each of three columns. The estimatedmean lifetime of each gas in the atmosphere is also given. The longlifetimes of the S-F compounds and the C-F compounds are to benoted. Despite being the least effective of the ghgs, CO2 and methaneare the most prominent because they contribute about 70 percent and13 percent of the overall greenhouse effect. Nitrous oxide contributesfour per cent and all the rest account for the remaining 13 per cent.The long lifetimes of these last compounds make it important thatthey be strictly controlled.

Figures 1 and 2 show the measured rise in methane and CO2

concentrations over hundreds of years, in which the effect of theindustrial revolution is very evident. Figure 3a shows the long timesrequired to stabilize CO2 in the atmosphere under various emissionscenarios illustrated in Figure 3b. Figure 4 shows the measuredaverage global temperature variation from 1860 to the 1990s, andtwo smoother curves derived from computer climate models. Figure

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Figure 2. CO2 concentration in the atmosphere from 1000 to the 1990s, from“Climate Change 1995”, IPCC. Note that the relatively constant emissions for theperiod 1850–1890 nevertheless gave rise to an appreciable increase in concen-tration over this period, indicating that already the CO2 absorption mechanismscouldn’t keep up with the emissions.

5 shows the long term global temperature change (theoretical) fortwo of the curves of Figure 3a (S450 and S650), for three values ofa parameter called climate sensitivity. Figure 6 shows the predictedchanges of sea level with the same assumptions as Figure 5. Climatesensitivity is the additional degree of warming that is expected froma given additional CO2 concentration. Since the value of the climatesensitivity is not accurately known yet, Figures 5 and 6 were preparedusing a best estimate of the parameter value, 2.5, and a much higherone and a much lower one.

CO2 concentration and temperature rise will continue to bemeasured in the years to follow, so that within a decade or so theclimate sensitivity will become more accurately known. In the meantime the Earth careens ahead with no controls on CO2 emissions,on a much more pessimistic path than either of the two 2.5 curvesin Figure 6, both of which assume that the human race will reactresponsibly to the threat of global warming. We are thus heading for

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Figure 3. (a) Predictions of CO2 concentrations according to a family of assump-tions about antropogenic CO2 emission rates; (b) the emission rates assumed forpredicting the curves in fig.3a. Both figures are taken from “Climate Change 1995”of the IPCC.

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Figure 4. Observed global temperature change from 1860–1990 (showing rapidfluctuations) compared with theoretical models. The solid curve includes ghgs andsulphate aerosols; dashed curve, ghgs only. Figure taken from “Climate Change1995” of the IPCC.

a much larger increase of sea level than the 1.5 m indicated for theyear 2500. Note also that the slopes of the curves in Figure 6 are stillgenerally upward for the year 2500.

POPULATION EXPLOSION

A factor that must be included in any strategy to combat climatechange is that due to population. The annual consumption of fossil-fuel energy, W, in any region may be thought of as the product of thepopulation, N, and the average annual fossil-fuel energy consump-tion per person, y:

(1) W = yN

To reduce W it is necessary to reduce yN, not merely y. Thus if Nis increasing, it is necessary to reduce y at the same fractional rate

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Figure 5. Global temperature predictions for the S450 and S650 curves of Figure3a, for three values of climate sensitivity, 4.5, 2.5, 1.5. The value 2.5 is the currentbest estimate. Figure taken from “Climate Change 1995” of the IPCC.

merely to keep W constant. Equation (1) shows how hard it is likelyto be to achieve an energy-conservation goal in the face of risingpopulation. In Canada the population is increasing at a rate of 0.9percent per annum, or 50 per cent in 45 years; so that maintenance oftoday’s total energy consumption rate would entail a one-third dropin consumption per person by the year 2041.

CHOICES BEFORE THE PEOPLE

Though the ultimate purpose of climate change study must be global,the Canadian problem alone is severe enough to warrant a wholepaper. If Canada could only set its own house in order it might serveas a model for at least one other country to build upon. Because ofCanada’s relative prosperity, its lands, forests and other resources,the measures needed to achieve reductions in ghg emissions should

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Figure 6. Sea level change estimates corresponding to the curves of Figure 5.Figure taken from “Climate Change 1995” of the IPCC.

be achievable, and much should be learned in the process. Canadawould then be better placed to assist the United Nations Environ-mental Program (UNEP) in extending its hand to developing coun-tries than is possible at present.3 The importance of Canada andother developed countries learning how to limit their ghg emissionswill emerge as the Asian countries develop their industry. The Asiancountries will have the possibility of swamping the world with theirpollution. This could be averted if the work begins now; the firststage is to reduce our own ghg emissions. This paper is restrictedto the problem of reducing and limiting ghg emissions in Canada, atractable albeit major problem.

In 1992, at the United Nations Conference on Environment andDevelopment (UNCED), known as the Rio Summit, Canada wasone of 150 nations to sign the Framework Convention on ClimateChange. The main objective of the Convention is to get signatories

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to reduce CO2 emissions from fossil fuels to the 1990 levels bythe year 2000. The western governments are finding this task verydifficult, since regulating the matter would mean doing politicallyunpopular things in every case. In response to the Convention, theCanadian government developed its National Action Program onClimate Change.4 The program “was developed through consulta-tions involving the federal and provincial governments, the privatesector, and environmental and other interest groups.” It dependslargely on voluntary actions of corporations, municipalities and indi-viduals. It contains few if any sticks and not enough carrots.

The program has been a dismal failure, even though it has resultedin a great deal of activity both in the federal civil service and in theoffices of nongovernmental groups (NGOs). Much of this activitywill have proved to be of value if and when the political barriers canbe broken down. Kevin Jardine, in a recent Internet communication5

quotes Brian Bornhold, former director of the Canadian GlobalChange Program (CGCP):6 “barriers to greenhouse gas emissionsreduction are not economic or technical but political. At presentfew provincial or federal government agencies in Canada have, orintend to implement, any substantial energy policies beyond provid-ing information to customers.”

A measure of the trends in ghg emissions in Canada can beseen from the following. Between 1990 and 1994 the populationincreased about 3.6 percent, but the ghg emissions increased 6.04percent, of which 4.33 percent was carbon dioxide. Not only did theghg emissions increase, but there was a large per capita increase,including a per capita increase in CO2 emissions.

IT CAN BE DONE

The sources of ghg emissions in Canada are quantitatively known aswell as their distribution among different chemical compounds.7 Forthe purposes of planning reductions, the sources have been dividedinto sectors: residential, commercial, industrial, transportation,producer consumption, electrical supply, etc. If the amounts for eachsector are known, then reducing the total emissions to any chosenlevel can in principle be achieved in any of very many different ways;it is only the total of the reductions that matters for compliance with

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TABLE IIImpact of measures by sector for all Canada Mt equivalent of CO2

Sector Total emissions Differences from reference case1990 2000 2005 2010

Residential 40.7 –2.7 –5.0 –6.7Commercial 24.0 –4.6 –8.8 –10.9Industrial 90.5 –6.2 –11.9 –15.7Transportation 144.9 –13.7 –39.2 –61.1Producer consumption 47.4 –10.0 –14.1 –17.4Electrical supply 93.9 –16.4 –22.9 –34.2

All other CO2 19.0Ethanol subsitution –0.7 –1.7 –1.7Tree planting –0.6 –1.6 –1.6

All methane� 83Landfill methane –3.0 –3.0 –3.0

All other 114Adipic acid –9.6 –10.8 –12.2PFCs –7.7 –7.8 –7.9HFCs –1.3 –2.5 –3.5

� The 83 Mt includes only anthropogenic methane. The total emissions aretaken from;9 the differences are from the Rational Energy Plan.8

the Convention. Nongovernment organizations, under the leadershipof the Sierra Club of Canada, have combined their efforts under theumbrella name Climate Action Network (CANet) and proposed away that the target of reductions to the 1990 levels can be achievedby the year 2000.8 Their plan, the Rational Energy Plan, has nowbeen analyzed using the Natural Resources Canada’s own computerprogram to evaluate the ghg reductions to be expected from thePlan,9 and other factors, the ghg reductions being shown in Table II.To achieve the called-for reductions by the year 2000 requires thatCanada reduce total emissions by 73.6 Mt (megatonnes equivalent)of CO2. The computer projects that the Rational Energy Plan wouldachieve this with 3.3Mt to spare (Table II), and then goes on toproject significant further reductions to the year 2010. These furtherreductions are required following the Berlin Mandate (1995), whichresulted from the UN Conference following up the Rio Summit andthe Framework Convention.

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The special importance of the Rational Energy Plan is that it isthe only plan analysed in detail so far that offers the government ofCanada the possibility of meeting its obligations under the Frame-work Convention and the Berlin Mandate. Are its estimates realistic?By sticking everywhere to the same assumptions that EnvironmentCanada adopted in its own analyses of five different in-house plans,CANet has obviated the accusation of having made assumptionsfavourable to the desired outcome. However, it often pays tore-examine assumptions.

The Rational Energy Plan divides the energy sector (first sevenrows of Table II) into about 40 subsectors from the standpoint of ghgemissions. It then specifies the agent responsible (usually a federaldepartment or a provicial department) for enforcing the necessaryghg reduction measures, and outlines what the measures will be. Inthe transportation sector, for example, the reduction in emissionsis partly achieved through an additional federal tax on liquid fuels,initially of only two cents per litre. The NRCan computer programpredicts the ghg reductions from such an initiative on the basis ofexisting data from previous tax impositions.10 Likewise, each othersubsector is subject to new measures that result in ghg reductions.The proposed measures should work if implemented. The problem ishow to enforce implementation, since evidently the major provinces,except perhaps B.C. and Quebec, are not showing signs of coopera-tion in going for ghg reductions. It is in the area of securing provin-cial cooperation, or of imposing substitute federal measures wheresuch cooperation is not forthcoming, that the Rational Energy Plan isweakest. In fact it does not attempt to deal with these matters, thoughimplementation of the Plan presupposes that they will be dealt with.

This paper attends to some of these unresolved political questionsin part 2. There is some urgency here, because every year that passeswithout any action retards the effect of the Plan by a little morethan a year, since Canada is currently increasing its per capita ghgemissions, along with a population rise of 0.9 percent.

CANet’s Plan also achieves parallel, collateral gains, includ-ing greater average prosperity of households. There is therefore anadvantage for every province to cooperate in implementing the Plan.Indeed, Swedes already enjoy a high standard of living at half the

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Canadian ghg emissions per capita. It is just a matter of doing itright.

POLITICS-INDUCED DESPAIR

In the section entitled “Choices before the people” the quote of theRoyal Society of Canada’s former CGCP director states that fewof Canada’s government agencies intend to implement any energyefficiency policies. The 144-page “Canada’s National Report onClimate Change” (1994) must thus be partly viewed as a paddedpublic relations effort. The wording in a few places gives away theemptiness of the good intentions; for example, on p. 37: “Alberta’sSmall Power R & D Program directs TransAlta to accept up to 125MW of electricity from renewable energy sources at set prices.”The words “up to” say it all; no minimum from renewable energysources has to be accepted, but a maximum is set at 125 MW, a tinyfraction of Alberta’s consumption rate. Thus the policy in fact guar-antees that the overwhelming dominance of fossil fuel consumptionwill continue. Another paragraph which looks good if you don’tthink about it is on p. 38, under objectives for reducing energy use:“Increase fuel efficiency in motor vehicle stock through improve-ments in vehicle and engine design.” Since rather few engines formotor vehicles are designed in Canada this paragraph is misleadingas it stands. It could, however, induce the thought that something isin progress which has not even been contemplated by the Canadiangovernment. My remarks here are not idle criticism of government,but will lead on to suggestions on what really needs to be done inthis area.

In November 1995, the Pembina Institute brought forth itsReview11 of Canada’s Voluntary Challenge Registry Program. TheReport includes some most important statements, beginning on p. 1:In response to demands by Canadians for action, governments finally established amultistakeholder process in 1993 (the Climate Change Task Group of the NationalAir Issues Coordinating Committee) that was tasked with developing measuresthat could be included in a National Action Plan. Over the next 18 months,88 measures were developed and proposed for consideration by governments.Subsequent macroeconomic analysis of [six] different packages of these measuresby Informetrica [Ltd] demonstrated that they would have a minimal impact onthe economy, and that the impact was often positive in terms of GDP growth andemployment. One of these : : : [the Rational Energy Plan] also allowed Canada tomeet its stabilization commitment.

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The Pembina Institute continues:

Nonetheless, when federal and provincial Energy and Environment Ministersreleased Canada’s National Action Program on Climate Change (NAPCC) inFebruary 1995, most of the 88 proposals were nowhere to be seen. : : : Of the 88measures proposed in 1994, the Voluntary Challenge and Registry Program (VCR)is the only substantial new action : : : to implemement in the NAPCC.

Of 73 companies responding to the Pembina Institute’s survey,only 18 provided data from which the Institute could assess ghgemissions to the year 2000. The prediction for that limited sampleof companies is an increase between 1990 and 2000 of 11 percent.Note that the population increase for that period is likely to be onlynine percent, again implying a per capita increase in ghg emissions.

The Pembina Institute stated inter alia that not one companyindicated a revision of its procurement policies such as would reduceghg intensity of products purchased. In several places they describedwhat is happening under VCR as “business as usual”, and concludedthat “the VCR will not be enough to allow Canada’s stabilizationcommitment, much less the commitments to follow” – a magnificentunderstatement. They also concluded that “Voluntary Challenge isnot suited to addressing the ghg emissions from transportation, smalland medium-sized enterprises, and the residential and commercialsectors.”

However, instead of recommending the replacement of VCR,they make three recommendations: for changes in the Income TaxAct; for Minimum Reporting Requirements under VCR; and foractive interaction between governments and the corporate sector todesign and implement voluntary ghg programs based on successfulmodels elsewhere. Lastly, they list measures that federal and provin-cial governments should implement immediately to reduce Canada’sghg emissions (paraphrased in Table III). The list, however, containsat least two errors of thinking that will become evident from a carefulreading of Part 2 of this paper.

The Sierra Club has adopted the amusing practice of issuing ayearly school report card on the performance of Canadian govern-ments on environmental matters.12 In this area of despair the humouris most welcome. Sierra’s GH Brundtland school has 13 students(federal, and Newfoundland through the Provinces to NWT andYukon) and 10 subjects (overseas development through forests).The highest grade of any student in the ecogenic year 1995–6 is

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TABLE III

1. Tougher fuel-economy standards for automobiles and light trucks.2. Support for transportation infrastructure that will decrease ghg emissions.3. Requiring provincial energy boards to incorporate environmental effects into

the purchase price of electrical power, pricing CO2 emissions at $40/t.4. Rejecting any request for new tax breaks on oil sands development and elim-

inating all subsidies and financial incentives for fossil fuel production anduse.

5. Working with electric utilities toward green power procurement.6. Ensuring that at least 50 per cent of government energy research and devel-

opment funding is directed to energy efficiency, and renewable energy sourcesby 1998, and create incentives for private sector capital investments in cleantechnologies. [Why only 50 per cent?]

7. Working with financial institutions to provide better mortgage rates for energy-efficient homes.

a B in toxics and pollution for New Bruswick. Climate change issubject number 2 on this year’s report card. Newfoundland, Ontario,Saskatchewan and Alberta score F in commitment to reduce ghgemissions, and these grades are more than justified in the text. Thefacts are so appalling that I have relegated them to an annex, toavoid ruining any reader’s disgestion, and the annex has since beenomitted. However, a word on Alberta’s role is unavoidable. With“full support from Natural Resources Minister Anne McLellan”,that province is responsible for the fact that Canada’s Action Plan isvoluntary. It is now clear that a purely voluntary program will notwork.

POSITIVE ELEMENTS

The scenario is not all dark. At the federal level at least Environ-ment Canada is aware of the need to move forward in reducing ghgemissions, and they and Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) havecollaborated with the Sierra Club and CANet in enabling them toevaluate their Rational Energy Plan. The federal government hasalso put forward a new standard, R2000 for home insulation. If thisstandard were obligatory for all new housing, and if the retrofit incen-tives and proposals of CANet were adopted so as to bring housingup to or near this standard, the objectives in the residential cate-

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gory (Table I) could be met. However, no province except BritishColumbia has adopted the R2000 standard as obligatory under theprovincial building code.

Quebec’s 13-member Consultation Panel of the Public Debate onEnergy has released a document “For an Energy Efficient Quebec”, 2April 1996. “The report is far-reaching and, if pursued by the Quebecgovernment, its recommendations could establish the province asa national leader in sustainable energy development”.12 Quebec’sprogram may turn out to be the only one to have a significant effecton ghg emissions.

The Sierra Club Prairie Chapter gives credit to Manitoba for itsforest enhancement program of $35 million over 10 years, and itsPowerSmart program.

In Saskatchewan the City of Regina has issued a truly forwardthinking assessment of its potential for achieving reductions of CO2

emissions, 20 percent by the year 2005,12 but at present there isno support from the provincial government. The government ofSaskatchewan has however a school retrofit program “DestinationConservation”, its ice rink retrofit program, and plans to develop aClean Air Strategy for the province that will include reductions inghg emissions.

British Columbia has an Action Plan which includes continualupgrading of efficiency standards for new appliances and equip-ment, support of Destination Conservation, a school retrofit program,action on methane emissions from landfills, and passing the GrowthStrategies Amendment Act.

The Yukon is developing a wind turbine pilot project on HaekelHill; energy efficiency loans are available for home retrofits throughYukon Housing; and its Energy Management Plan for schools hasresulted in energy savings above expectations.

The Northwest Territories have a five-year renewable energyplan and the following projects are in place: a wind turbine project(75 kW) at Cambridge Bay, and the Igloogik Wind Demonstra-tion Project; development of a hybrid (solar, wind, diesel) systemto power a freezer complex, and another for the Aurora ResearchInstitute; waste heat recovery for the new school in Fort McPherson.

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EDUCATING LEADERS

The dismal status quo calls for many changes. First, the federalgovernment cannot allow the failing VCR to continue as its primehope of fulfilling its international obligations to reduce ghg emis-sions. Even assuming that all of the Pembina Institute’s November1995 recommendations were fully adopted, I believe at least thefollowing other initiatives are now necessary.

First, the federal government has got itself into a bind by support-ing a system within its own organization – the Cabinet and theMinistries – that allowed Alberta’s special position as an oil-produc-ing province to arrest the process of achieving reductions in ghgemissions. To be fair to Alberta, there is a concern here in maintaininga good level of prosperity in one of the few provinces that can still dothis relative to the level in the 1980s. However, much of Canadianoil is imported from Venezuela, so it is not fundamental to Alberta’sinterests to increase Canadian oil consumption; it might merely benecessary that Canada’s imports decrease and its exports increaseduring the period ahead of us which must be one of reducing energywastage. The USA, for example, is much too dependent on mid-eastoil. Its imports are so vast that even if US consumption halved inthe next two decades Alberta alone could not supply their importrequirements.

The special position of Alberta is presently a bad excuse for thelack of progress in ghg emission reduction.

The Federal cabinet and the relationship of the Ministries requiresclose scrutiny too. The Ministry of Natural Resources should not beempowered to block essential commitments of the government thatare the responsibility of another ministry. A good question todayis whether that Ministry is even needed as a separate Ministry.Resources, energy and environment are so intimately related in thisage. These matters are in great need of attention by the Prime Ministerand his colleagues, because Canada is several years behind where itshould be on the matter of addressing Climate Change. The public isno longer likely to be fooled by the rhetoric, and the NGOs passedthat point long ago.

Second, despite the Pembina Institute not suggesting replacementof the VCR, some mandatory regulations should be introduced, andothers should be threatened in the event that voluntary restraint

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continues to fail. It is not clear from the Pembina Report11 whatthat Institute meant by changes to the Income Tax Act, but thereare many measures short of changing the Act itself that could andshould be introduced forthwith in an interim budget. Some of thesewill be discussed further on.

Third, the problem of fuel waste in transportation deserves imme-diate attention, including action beyond anything suggested byCANet, whose excellent Rational Energy Plan does not address thehuman factors that have entered strongly into motoring these pasttwenty years. Aspects of this problem will be dealt with in a latersection, Implementing the Plan for the transport sector. This is afederal matter as well as a matter for each province.

Fourth, there is an immediate need to change further the patternof subsidies, so that nonrenewable energy production and researchreceives little subsidy, and renewables get the greater share (TableIII, item 6).

Fifth, there is a need to impress upon the premiers of all provinces,where they are not already so convinced, as well as environment,forestry, agriculture, transportation and energy ministers, the impor-tance of making the ghg reduction program work – in whateverdetailed form that program crystallizes. This is both a job for thefederal government to pursue, and for NGOs and individuals.

Lastly, there is need for some new thinking and new ideas, andnew versions of old ideas, as well as a willingness of officials andpoliticians to listen to such new proposals. It is a question of privatepersuasion and public pressure.

ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT FACTORS

The Sierra Club, long active in climate change, have in recent timesplaced emphasis on impact assessments.8;9;14 The thinking is that,though the National Energy Plan has failed in its bid to reduce ghgemissions, people might adopt schemes that result in reductions ifsuch schemes were shown to be profitable to them. It is a special caseof the general proposition that nothing motivates people so muchas immediate rewards. Thus, an essential element of the RationalEnergy Plan is that it have a positive economic effect. The economicassessment by Informetrica Ltd14 shows that the rational EnergyPlan is not inflationary, does not harm Canadian competitiveness,

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and creates jobs in all sectors of the economy except energy to theyear 2000, and all sectors except energy and government servicesto the year 2005.15 Also, the disposable income per household ispredicted to rise as a result of implementing the Plan; and there willbe a reduction in the federal deficit to 2004. Since the Plan has notbeen put into effect, it is wise to add a year or two to the target dates(2000, 2005, 2010) when reading about the impacts.

The overall results of the economic study are so positive as tocall for immediate action, at least to draw the attention of the PrimeMinister and the Minister of Finance to the Rational Energy Plan.By coincidence, the Prime Minister has announced only within thelast few days (early August 1996) the necessity of his governmentto focus immediately on job creation.

Last, but not least, the job creation to 2005 estimated to arisefrom implementing the Rational Energy Plan is 170,000 new jobsup to 2000, a spectacular result, with continuing job creation at ahigher rate for the five years ending at 2005. The total person-yearsof employment created over the five years from 1996 to 2000 wouldbe 550,000. After ten years (read 2007) there should be 360,000people employed who would be without work in the absence of thePlan.

PART 2. INCORPORATING NEW INGREDIENTS INTO THE PLANNING

GENERAL REMARKS

The Rational Energy Plan could serve Canada and the internationalcommunity well. There is an argument that Canada is unimportant inthis regard internationally because its ghg emissions are dwarfed bythose of the USA, Russia and China (Figure 7). The counterargumentlies in Canada’s high and increasing per capita consumption (Figure8), and its growing population.16

Of course one can nitpick on the details of any plan, but theRational Energy Plan is the only workable plan on the table and ithas been adequately assessed.17 It holds advantages for all sectors ofthe economy except for energy until 2000, in particular the following:

jobshousehold incomesthe federal deficit.

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Figure 7. Countries having the highest greenhouse-gas emissions (1992). Source:Canada’s National Report on Climate Change, 1994, p. 16.

Figure 8. Source: the Greenhouse Gas Miser, 1993, p. 19.

The federal government thus has no excuse for delaying further,but there are reasons for not rushing the Plan into effect without duepreparation of the population, individuals, companies, industries,

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government officials, and provincial governments, all of whom willbe affected.

The documents I have studied lack indication of how to sellany plan whatever to the public or to provincial governments, andthus fail to show awareness of the careful introduction the Planmay require. Particular attention will be needed to overcome strongopposition from Alberta, the only province depending so heavily onthe energy supply sector. There will be a need for some compromisehere, and perhaps a shift in energy distribution, staged reductions inoil imports, or other arrangements to soften any negative impact onAlberta. This should be the first set of arrangements made prior tointroducing the Plan across the country and it should be done openly,with the collaboration of Albertans, and with constant support andinteraction at the highest level. For it is not possible that, in theabsence of such an approach, Albertans would at once welcome aproposal that is designed to cut oil consumption in the short termand to go on cutting it progressively thereafter.

There are other areas of the Plan which require great attentionto human habits of thinking and acting, and to the necessity ofchanging such habits. Nowhere is this more apparent than in thesector of transportation, which deserves a separate discussion – seenext section. People do not willingly change their habits overnight,and some have great difficulty making any change in their habits ofthinking. But if this concern is not addressed the Plan will fail. Itwill fail even if the present government puts its full weight behindit, because people will resist it and finally elect a new governmentwith a mandate to abandon the Plan.

Once a decision has been made to adopt the Plan, or even before,carefully thought out publicity for the Plan should be introducedin ways that people are bound to hear it – television appearances,in prime time, of the Ministers concerned and the Prime Ministerhimself. Those people who sometimes do read newspapers havebeen told for years that habits of energy usage will have to changein the 21st century, but few have realized that those changes mustbegin now. The publicity must emphasize the importance of the Planfor the global future, the Canadian future, for job creation, deficitreduction, and people must be asked to collaborate, and to put up

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with the small increase in gasoline tax10 in exchange for the otherrewards.

Asking for collaboration is not enough. The Plan must offer sticksas well as carrots, measures that would punish inadequate collabo-ration as well as measures that reward collaboration. Also sticks andcarrots for individuals. The Plan already contains some such – a taxon the purchase of fuel-extravagant vehicles which is converted intoa rebate (“feebate”) on economical ones.

IMPLEMENTING THE PLAN FOR THE TRANSPORT SECTOR

The additional tax on motor fuels10 is likely to have a transient effecton driving habits and preferences, but perhaps little long-term effect.It is thus important to look at the human factor in transportation.Nowhere in the Plan8 is the lack of incorporating the human factor asapparent as in the transportation sector. How has that sector changedthese past 40 years?

Passenger sea travel has been replaced by air travel, and thegreater part of train travel in North America by cars and buses.Transport of goods by rail has decreased in favour of truck transport;and truck transport within cities forever grows with the populationof the cities – note that population also has converged upon the citiesover that period.

Many people are already regretting the unrestrained growth ofsuburbs without good public transportation. The way to develop alarge city (if that is insisted upon as a goal) is to design it integrallywith the public transportation system and any trucking necessities.But that hasn’t been done anywhere in North America, so provision-ally we must live with the lack of planning we have inherited andcut ghg emissions anyway!

Two other trends of the last forty years are relevant: the trendsto higher speeds on highways18 and to greater frustration in cities.There was a break in the trend to higher speeds following the so-called oil crisis in 1973. Speed limits were introduced where therewere none and reduced where there were, and generally these limitswere respected for a while. The design of smaller and more fuel-economic cars ensued, but that was soon followed by desire formore power and more speed. The manufacturing industry responded

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by providing it, often offering a bigger engine for an already existingmodel of vehicle. The advertising of all this wonderful new powerwas always present too. In Germany today, where there is no speedlimit on throughways, and in Ontario where there is a low limit of100 km/hour, the speed of traffic is limited only by congestion onthose roads.

These factors have been ignored in the Rational Energy Plan,perhaps because they could not be quantified for the computeranalysis to which the Plan has been subjected; but that doesn’t meanthey can be ignored in the implementation.

An option, as the Plan is set in place, would be to request theProvinces to enforce speed limits strictly and thoroughly until newand better measures could be substituted. Motorists do not like speedlimits. Mr. Harris, Ontario’s Premier, showed just how fast speedlimit enforcement could be reversed when he came into office in1995. This factor makes speed limit enforcement very unreliable asa long-term strategy to keep the lid on ghg emissions.

A much preferable instrument to limit ghg emissions and controlspeed, without waiting for advanced car designs that might require adecade or two to develop, would be a simple rule governing power-to-weight ratios (P/W) for vehicles. Modern vehicles have excesspower in relation to their weight. On a horizontal road the maxi-mum speed is governed by the power delivered to the drive andair resistance. In all cases the power is greatly in excess of whatis required to maintain the most fuel-economic speed, let us guess,twice as much. By setting a limit on power-to weight ratio at, say,60 per cent of the present values in each category, speeds in excessof 80 km/hour could be maintained by trucks and vans that lackstreamlining, and it would still be possible for more streamlinedvehicles to maintain speeds slightly in excess of 100 km/hour. Allvehicles would travel somewhere near their optimum fuel economy,more or less automatically, regardless of the type of engine or vehicletype. Speed limits on limited access highways could be abolished.The maximum on P/W would prove a double economy since it wouldenforce more fuel-economic engines as well as more fuel-economichighway driving.

The P/W rule would be easy for manufacturers to comply with.They already offer a range of sizes of vehicle and engine. The larger

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engines would be rapidly phased out, and maybe one smaller enginewould have to be developed for the smallest models. The rest wouldbe a matter of adaptation.

This scheme does not require the rest of the world to be in agree-ment. If a particular country decided to have a maximum P/W, itwould only need to tell manufacturers well in advance of its inten-tion not to import or allow licencing of new vehicles outside theP/W limit after a certain date, and of its intention to tax existingvehicles having an excess P/W after that date, but allowing time forthe necessary developments to take place. The manufacturers wouldrespond readily enough.

Once the lower-powered vehicles were on the roads in great num-bers it would set the scene for the next phase in fuel economy –vehicles of new and advanced concepts (next section). There will bean added safety advantage with the slower traffic proposed here.

The principle of restricting power-to-weight ratio is a major stepin reducing ghg emissions only for highway driving, and would playa minor role in cities, where the wastage comes mostly from:

frequent braking,having to drive at speeds below maximum engine efficiency,idling at stops,disproportionate time warming up engine in short trips,unnecessary use of vehicle!too many one-occupant vehicles.

The traffic problems are being considered by many municipalities,where stick-and-carrot methods are appropriate for decongestingcities and suburbs. One of the most attractive recent develop-ments has been in Vancouver, where privately subsidized 8-personcommuter vans have already replaced a much larger number of carsdriving into and out of the city daily. The system works if each vanis filled to capacity.

The stick-and-carrot principle could well be applied to the munic-ipalities themselves – those who are not actively pursuing decon-gesting strategies and other ghg reducing strategies would findthemselves facing strong disincentives. This element also is missingfrom the Plan.

A huge step forward also needs to be made toward intelligenttraffic lights, and removal of unnecessary STOP signs.

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Speed limits in cities and suburbs will probably remain a neces-sity, though they may take new forms in the forthcoming age. Inmany areas they have been set so low that it is unreasonable toexpect them to be observed.

Finally the types of vehicle suitable for use in cities are quitedifferent from any available today, except for bicycles, and thedesirable trend to more use of bicycles will unfortunately neverinclude everybody. In Canada, the city motorised vehicle needsto be of a hybrid type, having a small engine operating at itsmost fuel-efficient speed, and feeding an electromagnetic propul-sion and braking system. Something like this is being developed byPaul McCreedy, Amory Lovins and others.19 Only a vehicle of thistype satisfies the thermal requirements of the northern climate andprovides efficient propulsion under city conditions.20

ADVANCED VEHICLE DESIGNS

What level of prosperity is sustainable in the long run depends notonly on population but on invention. We cannot predict the outcome,but those who understand the necessary basic science can indicatethe pathways, as Amory Lovins began to do many years ago.

The call for advanced vehicles is likely to result, in their earliestforms, in rather expensive models, and only then after long leadtimes. General Motors announced in 1980 that they were developingan electrically propelled car for trial or production in ten years. Thecar was tested about 1991 and is now available for sale at a price mostpeople cannot afford. It carries a heavy load of lead-acid batteriesand has a limited range. The vehicle may prove useful in the LosAngeles area, but it has a limited future worldwide.

The more advanced vehicles of the future are also likely to be ofmodest performance only. Throughout the world people buy whatthey fancy, not what emits the least CO2. But if the move to advancedvehicles is preceded by a stern restriction in power-to-weight ratio,then the transition to more advanced types could be easier becausedrivers would have become used to more modest performance thanwhat we have today. The intermediate stage could therefore proveto have been of great value.

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It is not, however, for governments to demand a particular typeof vehicle. No company can be expected to put into productionsomething that may not be marketable.

OTHER ECONOMIC MEASURES

Any economic measure designed to reduce CO2 emissions couldbe regarded as a carbon tax; after all, the complete burning of onecarbon atom results in one molecule of CO2. The present gasolineand other fuel taxes are carbon taxes. Therefore the frequent urgingsin the last several years coming from nongovernmental organizationsfor governments to implement a carbon tax need explanation. Whatis the extra tax that is being proposed?

A new, direct tax on the sale of coal would be a simple example.It would have the advantage of bringing in income to Canada fromexports, thus helping to reduce the federal deficit.

However, the statement of the Sierra Club, “The use of instru-ments like a carbon tax ARE NOT necessary to stabilize greenhousegas emissions in Canada” is unproven, and unintentionally mislead-ing. In fact there are several carbon taxes in the Rational EnergyPlan, notably additional federal tax on motor fuels,10 and these taxesare to be responsible for a considerable contribution to reducing theghg emissions under the Plan.

The proposed reduction of tax allowances for oil exploration(referred to as subsidies by many) is a carbon tax. So is the vehiclefeebate, in part, and also the tax incentives for energy efficiency inindustrial investments. The optional carbon charge (optional becauseCANet isn’t yet sure if it is needed) which might be implemented in2000 is simply an additional carbon tax, not “the carbon charge” asif there were no others.

Most, however, of the Rational Energy Plan’s 33 proposals to theyear 1999 are not carbon charges.

There is another role for financial incentives, not entered intoby CANet, which needs attention This is to fulfil a carrot-and-stickrole for obtaining compliance with the Plan. This could be indi-vidual compliance, but it could be even more useful for inducingprovincial compliance with federal agencies. A good example forinducing individual compliance, when a province will not enforce

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it, is the R2000 housing standard, which only British Columbia hasadopted. Ontario, as we saw, is planning to deregulate its presenthousing standard, which would oppose directly federal efforts atghg reductions.

The first federal measure proposed here is an example of tax-shifting, which is neither inflationary nor deflationary, since it doesnot alter the amount of tax collected. The federal governmentcurrently charges house purchasers a land transfer tax, when the titledeed changes hands, of under two per cent of the property value.21

The change proposed here would move the liability for the tax tothe seller when the R2000 standard is not met. A stronger measurewould be to make the seller pay a higher transfer tax in such cases;the excess tax could be offered to the buyer as a reward for bringingthe house up to the federal standard within a reasonable time. Thetransfer tax could also be applied to builders who sell new housesbelow the federal standard.

Federal or provincial measures could go much further than this.For provinces that refuse to adopt the federal R2000 building stan-dard, there could be a federal sales tax on building materials in allbuilding construction, to be rebated upon satisfaction of the federalstandard. A tax of this type is punitive in the sense that it wouldaffect structures where R2000 is irrelevant. Thus it could have theeffect of putting pressure on a province to conform, by adopting thefederal standard.

In yet other provinces, such as Ontario where the standards willlikely be lowered or abolished, all of the above measures would beappropriate except that a further surtax would be needed to empha-size the disparity between existing provincial standards.

Carrot-and-stick fiscal measures could be extended to sectorsother than buildings and building materials, according to the impor-tance of the particular situation, or the degree of noncompliance withthe Energy Plan. The object is to make the Plan effective.

SEQUESTERING CARBON DIOXIDE

This subject receives appropriate mention in the Rational EnergyPlan, but it would have been good to see more. Despite the muchlower annual absorption of CO2 by our northern forest than by trop-

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ical rainforests, the forests are nevertheless important, as also isgrowth on farmlands, though less so than forest for sequesteringCO2.

Every hectare of farmland turned into roads, parking lots, or build-ings has its ghg cost, and should be appropriately costed in assessingcarbon charges. It costs little, for example, to design parking lotsso that there are shade trees sufficient to shade most of the vehiclesparked there in summer. In a system of correct ghg costing the addi-tional cost of making a parking lot green could be recovered by afeebate.

A small-scale forestation scheme is discussed in the next section,as it illustrates concept of extended cogeneration.

Turning now to other methods of sequestering CO2, we shouldnot overlook the super blue-green algae of Upper Klamath lake,in Oregon. Per hectare, Upper Klamath lake sequesters more CO2

than any tropical rainforest, and the algae produced are said to besufficient to feed the world in important nutrients. The nutrientscontain all the enzymes needed by the human body in the proportionsthey are needed. The extraordinary phenomenon of the fast growing,nutritious algae is not known elsewhere. The algae require pure (thatis, unpolluted) water, rich in volcanic minerals.

There is a grave danger in introducing any species from its naturalhabitat to another. Plants and animals have been known to takeover a region in undesirable ways. Nevertheless, the super blue-green algae deserves some attention, since it might, with carefulexperimentation, be induced to flourish in another location undercontrolled conditions preventing its inappropriate spread.

EXTENDED COGENERATION

Cogeneration most commonly means using waste from one processto supply another. Extended cogeneration would be any scheme thatdid substantially more than that. There is a possible scheme of thistype that could be tested in Ontario and might not need governmenthelp. It is designed to address four social and ecological problems atonce:

a) the existence of acreages of poor farmland, whether the landis poor because of glaciers in the last ice age, or overfarming

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in recent times; and the long-term drain of organic matter fromfarms to supply cities [22] with consequent deterioration of soil;

b) the horrendous problem about what to do with city waste in theshort and long term;

c) the need to improve forests, for future generations;d) the need to sequester more CO2

The scheme requires some cooperation from municipalities andworks as follows:

1. poor farmlands are identified that would make prime candidatefor return to forest; there are many such acreages in Ontario,which can be observed from their slow natural return to scrubbush, with some cedar trees and little else of much value;

2. the lands could be acquired privately or publicly, purchased orrented on long lease for forestry;

3. arrangements would be made with municipalities to compostand remove their organic waste, or to remove their compostedwastes;

4. the acquired lands would be brought up to a good standard forforestry, by the addition of subsoil, where necessary, and composton top. Trees would then be planted.

The scheme has possible application to improving farmland itself,but is open to the objection that the compost would need testing forthe presence of unwanted heavy metals.

The scheme looks more attractive for Ontario than it did untilrecently, because of the announcement that Toronto was to shipgarbage over 560 km to Kirkland Lake. The tremendous shippingcost, as well as the associated ghg cost, would justify close exami-nation of the scheme proposed here, which would save on the trans-portation of the compostable portion of the city wastes.

NONFEDERAL INITIATIVES

There are many initiatives in Canada, set up to save energy, thathave emerged from provincial or local responsibility. Such effortsmay result in lowering ghg emissions, but are not necessarily builtinto any federal plan. In fact some should be regarded as part of the

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baseline against which any further ghg reductions resulting from afederal Plan should be assessed.

One nonfederal initiative is the Ontario Municipal EnergyImprovement Facility (OMEIF), which is a partnership of the UN-affiliated International Council for Local Environment Initiatives,the Ontario Ministry of Environment and Energy, and 11 Ontariomunicipalities. OMEIF is working to set up securitization funds,which are small pools of capital that reduce the risk to investors ofloaning to small business owners. The funds would be effectivelyan insurance pool drawn on only when loans are defaulted. Suchfunds are a more practical way of reducing risk than governmentloan guarantees which usually appear as a liability on governmentbalance sheets. Funds in a securitization pool can leverage privateinvestments ten times larger than the pool.5 Another Ontario initia-tive was the Home Green-Up which has established energy and waterefficiency marketing centres in 19 Ontario municipalities. Financingof cost-effective efficiency investments is available through CanadaTrust. The city of Guelph has had one of the longest-running andsuccessful programs, Guelph 2000. Funding for the marketing centrewas to be limited to three years, which raised the question what wouldhappen thereafter;5 however, the Ontario government has now cut thefunding prematurely, which undercuts the progress that was takingplace.

A comprehensive look at local initiatives would require at leastanother whole paper. The comments above are inserted merely togive a few flavours. Initiatives are sometimes entirely private, such assolar interior lighting, which can operate winter and summer withoutfossil fuel or electrical supplement in Ontario.

CLOSING REMARKS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Resisting the laissez-faire trends in fossil-fuel usage presents chal-lenges and opportunities at every turn of Canadian life. The firstchallenge is the hardest: convincing people to think and act in anew way that replaces brute force with sensitivity and waste withinvention.

The federal government has a unique opportunity to create jobs,reduce the deficit and move toward compliance with the 1992

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Framework convention by adopting the Rational Energy Plan as putforward by the Canadian Action Network of nongovernmental orga-nizations, provided it takes the preliminary additional steps neededto ensure the success of the Plan. These steps go beyond what hasbeen envisaged by the Canadian Action Network, and some of thesteps are outlined in this paper.

The Plan assessment only predicts deficit reduction to the year2003 or 2004, according to the report of Informetrica, and thereforeshould only be considered as a provisional plan, to be revised withnongovernment collaboration prior to 2003. In fact such revisionscould take place soon after adoption of the plan and be put in placeevery two years or so, always with the quadruple aim of reducing ghgemissions, increasing prosperity, reducing the deficit and increasingemployment.

Because it is already late to adopt the Plan, one needs to add ayear or so to the dates that appear in its schedules, or alternatively,the processes of the Plan should be accelerated.

The nongovernment factor in planning reductions in ghg emis-sions has been crucial to the possibility of early success, and shouldnot be undervalued in future government planning.

There is still a great deal of room for new ideas. Many are alreadybeing pursued outside of any government plan, federal or provincial,and are reaping benefits for those working on them, but compli-ance with the Framework Convention requires major progress inall sectors, and that can only be achieved by adopting the Plan andseeing to it that it succeeds.

While this paper has focused on reductions of the common gases,the emissions of HFC and CFC compounds present a huge long-termthreat of global warming, and should be the focus of an in-depth studyin the near future.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

I thank Adele Buckley for her valuable support as co-chair of theWorking Group of Science for Peace on Climate Change. She andPeter Shepherd have sent me much useful material for which I amgrateful. I also wish to thank Andrea Barker of the Sierra Club of

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Canada for many documents and, last but not least, Louise Comeaufor many useful discussions.

NOTES

1 A living system is one that attempts to keep its state of order between limits.If the biosphere cannot get rid of its unwanted heat energy, ultimately it becomestoo disordered and dies. Put mathematically, a living system must keep its ownentropy between limits.2 In this context “global average” means the average of an extremely large numberof measurements – possible in principle though not necessarily in practice. Thepoint is that the global average is in principle very accurate.3 UNEP relies on developed countries having an advanced scientific infrastructurefor some of its essential scientific and technological base.4 A State of the Environment report (Environment Canada, SOE report No. 95-2)p. 62.5 Kevin Jardine, Briefing paper, Greenpeace Canada, 7 June 1995.6 The Canadian Global Change Program is a scientific long-term project ofthe Royal Society of Canada devoted to studying Climate Change. It began inDecember 1985 and held its first CGCP Assembly in April 1990. Its progress canbe followed by reading its Newsletter “Delta” which can be obtained from theRoyal Society of Canada, 225 Metcalfe St, #308, Ottawa K2P 1P9.7 “Canada’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Estimates for 1990” (EnvironmentCanada, report EPS 5/AP/4, December 1992) 78 pp.8 Sierra Club of Canada, Pembina Institute, Environment Canada, and NaturalResources Canada, “Climate Action Network Rational Energy Plan; Analysis ofmeasures impact to 2010” September 1995, 50pp. “Appendix 1” of this documentlooks at the detailed assumptions of the Rational Energy Plan. Added in press:since this paper was written an updated version (September 1996) of the Plan hasbeen published, renamed the Rational Energy Program. Sierra Club of Canada’s,CANet Media Backgrounder “Multiple Benefits of Action on Climate Change”,20 November 1995.9 Natural Resources Canada, Energy Sector “Model Simulations of the ClimateAction Network Program for Energy Demand, GHG Emissions and Investment”prepared at the request of the Climate Action Network (CANet), June 1995. Nat-ural Resources Canada has also submitted five ministry plans to the same analysis.10 The Rational Energy Plan calls for staged increases of federal liquid fuel tax,initially 2 cents per litre, increasing to 3.5 cents per litre by 2000. It should beremembered that a tax increase is a step function that produces a transient effectas well as (perhaps) a long-term effect. It is doubtless the transient effect that thefederal agency is using as its basis when programming to get predictions of a ghgreductions plan. What this means is that the NRCan program probably overesti-mates the long-term ghg reductions resulting from the tax increase. In addition,the tax increase is an inflationary measure, and thus not intrinsically desirable. It isdesirable only in the sense that it may induce people to purchase vehicles that aremore fuel-efficient. But if it merely induces more careful driving and fewer totalkm driven immediately following the tax increase, then there will be no long-term

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effect whatever. Note that, in the long term, a constant tax (per litre) would be areducing tax as long as there is any inflation whatever. For all of these reasons,additional measures for reducing ghg emissions in the transportation sector areproposed in this paper.11 “The Pembina Institute Canada’s Voluntary Challenge and Registry Program:An Independent Review” November 1995.12 The Sierra Club Of Canada, “1996 Rio Report Card”, 11 June 1996.13 Atmospheric Environment Service, “The Greenhouse Gas Miser”, a handbook,January 1993.14 The Rational Energy Plan has also been subject to independent economicanalysis by Carl Sonnen of Informetrica; a preliminary report was made to theSierra Club 30 March 1996.15 Thereafter job creation continues at a much slower pace, affecting some sectorspositively and other negatively.16 The world Resources Institute’s estimate for Germany is probably in strongdisagreement with Environment Canada’s, but the comparison available forpresent purposes was for two different years, so that the apparent discrepancyis unresolved.17 The 1996 versions of the Rational Energy Plan and associated assessments,including the final report of Informetrica, are being prepared as this paper is beingwritten.18 There is no fuel saving if a vehicle requiring 9.5 litres of liquid fuel per 100kmis replaced by another nominally requiring only 7 litres/100km and the latter isnow driven so fast that it consumes 10 litres/100km.19 Reported in the Newsletter of the Committee of Monetary and EconomicReform, August 1996.20 A major source of energy loss in cities is due to braking. Electromagneticdeceleration can be designed to put much of the energy of motion back intostorage batteries.21 This tax has always been unfairly discriminatory in its present from. It is essen-tially a capital tax which, however, is repeated for people who change residences,not necessarily by choice. It has been in need of reform.22 The organic matter entering cities in the form of food alone amounts tobetween 1.5 and 2 kg per person per day, more than 1.6 million tonnes per annumfor a municipality of 3 million inhabitants. A substantial fraction of this can becomposted and returned to the land following garbage sorting. If full sewage treat-ment including solid waste processing is adopted, the fraction returned to the landincreases.

122 Hilton AvenueM5R 3E7TorontoCanada

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