climate change effects on water resources and aquatic ecosystems

Climate Change Effects on Water Resources and Aquatic Ecosystems

Paul K. Barten, Ph.D., Professor, University of Massachusetts AmherstAdapting Forested Watersheds to Climate Change – Nat. Inst. of Applied Climate Science

Antioch University, Keene, New Hampshire – April 4, 2017

Climate change?Inter-annual variability?

Land use effects?Forest influences?Relative effects?Signal? Noise?

[Good questions]

Conceptual diagram:Brianne Walsh (Univ. of Maryland),Toni Lynn Morelli (USGS/UMass/NECSC),Paul Barten (UMass)

Wolf River, Menominee Reservation, WI(Satterlund and Adams, 1992)

GCMs forecast warmer, wetterconditions in New EnglandP - ET - Q ±∆S = 0 or Q ≈ P - ET ±∆S

P - (E + T + I) - (QOF + QSSF + QGW) ±∆ (SSNOW + SSOIL + SWETLANDS + SLAKES + SSTREAMS + SBIOMASS) ± L ± ε = 0…terrain, land use, flow routing, energy balance, inter-annual variability of climate

Trees are highly evolved, adaptable organisms—not passive wicks.

Nelson Brook Weir2008 to present

USGS 01174500 EAST BRANCH SWIFT RIVER

NEAR HARDWICK, MA1937 to present

Quabbin Reservoir - April 1989-18.5 ft., 68% of storage capacity

Photo: Clif Read (MA DWSP)


Land use change?Signal? Noise?

[Good questions]

Quabbin ReservoirOctober 196661% CapacityMA DCR Archives

February and March 1967 …45% Capacity

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1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109 121 133

% R

eser

voir

Capa

city

Year

Jan 1963 - Jan 1974

Jan 1984 - Jan 1995

Jan 2013 - Feb 2017

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Paul K. Barten, UMass Amherst

DROUGHT EMERGENCY STAGE 1

DROUGHT WARNING

…2017?

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Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul1963 1964 1965 1966 19672009 2010 2011 2012 2013M

ean

Mon

thly

Disc

harg

e, ft

3 /se

c Ea

st B

ranc

h Sw

ift R

iver

, Har

dwic

k, M

A

Oct 2009 – Sep 2010

ƩQ (mm) %1964 360 712010 510 -

Dr. Emery BooseSenior Investigator

Information Manager

0

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16Nelson Brook - Harvard ForestEast Branch Swift River - USGS

Mea

n da

ily d

ischa

rge

(mm

/day

)

1 Oct-30 Nov 2009 7 Apr-7 Jun 2010

P – ET – Q ±ΔS = 0AET ≈ P – Q (water year, ΔS → 0)

Precipitation (P) 1,095 mmWater yield (Q) 510 mm

Est. Actual ET (P-Q) 585 mm

Nelson Brook Q = 509 mmE.B. Swift River Q = 510 mm

r = 0.96

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Oct

Nov De

cJa

nFe

bM

ar Apr

May Jun Jul

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harg

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Nelson Brook Weir: 1 October-30 November 2009 …15 minute interval data

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Nelson Brook Weir: 7 April-7 June 2010 …15 minute interval data

Atmosphere↑↓

Forest↑↓

Tree↑↓

Leaf↑↓

Stomata↑↓

Xylem & phloem↑↓

Roots↑↓SoilSo

il –

Plan

t –At

mos

pher

e Co

ntin

uum

Trees are highly evolved, adaptable organisms—not passive wicks. Spencer Woodlot

Conway, Mass.

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neou

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Nelson Brook Weir: 7 April-7 June 2010 …15 minute interval data

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1

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4 MT MT MT MT MT MT

42 28 49(W/m2)

PAR

336 mmRain



[Good questions]

0102030405060708090

12/1/2009 1/1/2010 2/1/2010 3/1/2010 4/1/2010

Snow

Wat

er E

quiv

alen

t (m

m)

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[Good questions]


Land use effects?Forest influences?Relative effects?Signal? Noise?

[Good questions]

Civil and Environmental Engineering DepartmentSyracuse University

The interacting hydrologic responses to changing climate, watershed physical characteristics, river regulation, and land development in the northeastern

United States

PhD Dissertation

Rouzbeh BertonMay 2017

Berton, R., C.T. Driscoll, P.K. Barten, and J.L. Campbell. (in preparation) Climate change and land use effects on streamflow discharge and timing.

Sub-watershed % Forest % Developed % Other18 - Shawsheen 17 73 10

19 - Smith 87 4 9

20 - Squannacook 76 10 14

HubbardBrook

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PET

Est. snowmelt

Ra in

Discharge

a) Smith (ID: 19, forest- average HyC)

F1F2

F3F4

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mm

/day

PET

Est. snowmelt

Ra in

Discharge

b) Squannacook (ID: 20, suburban- average HyC)

S1 S2 S3

S4 S5

S6

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mm

/day

PET

Est. snowmelt

Ra in

Discharge

c) Shawsheen (ID: 18, urban- average HyC)

U1

U2

U3

U4

U5

U6

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mm

/day

PET

Est. snowmelt

Ra in

Discharge

a) Smith (ID: 19, forest- dry HyC)

F12F13

F14

F15

F20

F18

F17

F16

F19

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PET

Est. snowmelt

Ra in

Discharge

b) Squannacook (ID: 20, suburban- dry HyC)

S14S15

S16S17 S20S19

S18

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mm

/day

PET

Est. snowmelt

Ra in

Discharge

c) Shawsheen (ID: 18, urban- dry HyC)

U15

U16

U17

U18U19

U20 U21U22

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Smith

(ID

: 19,

for

est)

Squannacook (ID: 20, suburban)

a) Cumulative double mass curve (WY 1970, average HyC)1:1

Cumulative discharge (mm)

S1-F1

S2-F2

S3-F3Forestvs

Suburban

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Smith

(ID

: 19,

fore

st)

Shawsheen (ID: 18, urban)

b) Cumulative double mass curve (WY 1970, average HyC)1:1


U1-F1

U3-F2

U4-F3

U2-F4

Forestvs

Urban

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900

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

Squa

nnac

ook

(ID

: 20,

sub

urb)

Shawsheen (ID: 18, urban)

c) Cumulative double mass curve (WY 1970, average HyC)1:1


U1-S1U6-S6

U2-S4

U5-S5

Suburbanvs

Urban

Sub-watershed % Forest % Developed % Other18 - Shawsheen 17 73 1019 - Smith 87 4 920 - Squannacook 76 10 14

Flow regime changes when impervious surfaces >5 to 10%.

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Da

ily d

isch

arg

e (m

m/d

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Exceedence probability (%)

a) Flow duration curve (WY 1970, average HyC)

Smith (ID: 19, forest)Squannacook (ID: 20, suburban)Shawsheen (ID: 18, urban)

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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100D

ail

y d

isch

arg

e (

mm

/da

y)

Exceedence probability (%)

c) Flow duration curve (WY 1989, dry HyC)


On average, as urbanization progresses:high flows get higher and low flows get lower.

Forests help to sustain streamflow during dry years via infiltration,

subsurface flow, and deeper groundwater flow paths.

0

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100%

of c

umul

ativ

e an

nual

dis

char

ge a ) Flow distribution curve (WY 1970, average HyC)


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% o

f cum

ulat

ive

annu

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isch

arge

c) Flow distribution curve (WY 1989, dry HyC)


Forests delay and de-synchronize snowmelt.

Infiltration, subsurface flow, and groundwater flow paths also increase travel times to streams, rivers, lakes, and reservoirs.

2013

Climate changeInter-annual variability

Land use effectsInter-related processes

Complex questions