climate change committee wg1 comparison of uncertainties in the waste sector reported by member...
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Climate Change Committee WG1Climate Change Committee WG1
Comparison of uncertainties in the waste sector reported by Member
States
Odette Deuber, ETC-ACC
3 May 2005
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Uncertainties regarding activity data Uncertainties regarding activity data CRF 6.A Solid Waste Disposal)CRF 6.A Solid Waste Disposal)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
AT DE6.A.1
FI FR IE IT NL SE UK BE6.A.1
ES GR6.A.2
GR6.A.1
Uncertainty in +/- %
IPCC GPG:high quality data
IPCC GPG:poor quality data(+- 200 %)
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Uncertainties for Emission FactorsUncertainties for Emission FactorsCRF 6.A Solid Waste DisposalCRF 6.A Solid Waste Disposal
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
AT DE6.A.1
FI FR IE IT NL SE UK BE6.A.1
ES GR6.A.2
GR6.A.1
Uncertainty in +/- %
IPCC GPG:high quality data
IPCC GPG:poor quality data
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Activity data, emission factors and Activity data, emission factors and combined uncertainties (6.A)combined uncertainties (6.A)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
AT DE6.A.1
FI FR IE IT NL SE UK BE6.A.1
ES GR6.A.2
GR6.A.1
Uncertainty in +/- %
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6.A Solid Waste Disposal: parameters 6.A Solid Waste Disposal: parameters effecting key uncertaintieseffecting key uncertainties
• Quantity and composition of landfilled waste – waste composition may change over time– actual emission estimates are still dependent on data extrapolations from
earlier years which are in general of lower quality– Data of industrial waste is often of lower quality
• Quantity of CH4 that is actually generated– Small changes in the assumed DOC value can result in large variations.– DOC values are widely differing among Member States (as different waste
compositions) – DOCf– Assumed half-life or k (methan generation rate konstant)
• Quantity of CH4 that is actually emitted– Degree of oxidation that occurs as the gas diffuses through the landfill cover
materia (presence, thickness and other characteristics of SWDS cover material).
– Methane recovery
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6.B Default uncertainties according 6.B Default uncertainties according to IPCC GPG:to IPCC GPG:
• Activity data (6.B.1): – Industrial production +- 25% expert judgement needed– COD/ t product very uncertain – 50%, 100%
• Activity data (6.B.2):– Human population +- 5%– BOD/ person +- 30%
• Emission factor:– Maximum CH4 Producing Capacity Bo +- 30%– Fraction treated anaerobically expert judgement needed
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Uncertainties regarding activity data Uncertainties regarding activity data CRF 6.B Wastewater HandlingCRF 6.B Wastewater Handling
1) Sparsely populated areas2) Densely populated areas
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
BE 6.B.2
DE ES FI 6.B.1
FI 6.B.2
1)
FI 6.B.2
2)
FR GR IT NL UK
Uncertainty in +/- %
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Uncertainties regarding emission factors Uncertainties regarding emission factors CRF 6.B Wastewater HandlingCRF 6.B Wastewater Handling
1) Sparsely populated areas2) Densely populated areas
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
BE 6.B.2
DE ES FI 6.B.1
FI 6.B.2
1)
FI 6.B.2
2)
FR GR IT NL UK
Uncertainty in +/- %
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Activity data, emission factors and Activity data, emission factors and combined uncertainties (6.B)combined uncertainties (6.B)
1) Sparsely populated areas2) Densely populated areas
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
BE 6.B.2
DE ES FI 6.B.1
FI 6.B.2
1)
FI 6.B.2
2)
FR GR IT NL UK
Uncertainty in +/- %
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6.B Wastewater handling: parameters 6.B Wastewater handling: parameters effecting key uncertaintieseffecting key uncertainties
• Organic waste water quantity and composition– Often amount of DOC in the wasteater that is produced and
the volumes handled in the various systems are often not well known.
– DOC values in industrial sector are often averages from several processes.
• Wastewater handling facility efficiency and output – Aerobically treated wastewater by handling plants may be
subject to anaerobic conditions due to poorly managed and functioning facilities.
– Efficiency of CH4 recovery / flaring– Data on lagoons are very limited.
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Determination of Uncertainties Determination of Uncertainties for EU inventoryfor EU inventory
• depending on correlation between the MS uncertainties
• Relative uncertainties if it is assumed that they are– not correlated: 14.3 % (6.A); 30.3 % (6.B)– correlated: 41.8 % (6.A); 63.5 % (6.B)
• Assumption made:– Uncertainties of Member States correlate if either
Default EF or T1 as method were applied.
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How to improve uncertainty How to improve uncertainty estimates?estimates?
• Each Member States should check uncertainties relative to IPCC default values.
• Improvement of data quality regarding parameters affecting key uncertainties.
• Let us discuss...
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Thank you for your attention