climate change and habitat plans: federal policy and funding
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Climate Change and Habitat Plans: Federal policy and funding. Mark Kramer, The Nature Conservancy 11/18/09. Federal climate policy fundamentals. Emission reduction Cap and Trade Energy Efficiency Unregulated sectors Sequestration Forest carbon Other Adaptation Human systems - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
© Tom Klare© Tom Klare
Climate Change and Habitat Plans:Federal policy and funding
Mark Kramer, The Nature Conservancy
11/18/09
© Tom Klare© Tom Klare
Federal climate policy fundamentals
• Emission reduction– Cap and Trade– Energy Efficiency– Unregulated sectors
• Sequestration– Forest carbon– Other
• Adaptation– Human systems– Natural systems
© Tom Klare© Tom Klare
To what are we adapting? Current Temperature and Observed Ecosystem Impacts
At the
Current 0.7°C
(1.3°F, 385 ppmv CO2e),
Impacts Are Measurable,
Significant and
Comprehensive
● Glacier and Polar Ice Cap Loss● Sea Level Rise● Species Movement● Increase in Growing Season Length● Increased Frequency and Magnitude of
Extreme Events (Drought and Storms)
To what are we adapting?: Trajectory of Global CO2 Emissions
IPCC SRES growth rates in
% per year for
2000-2010:
A1B: 2.42 A1FI: 2.71A1T: 1.63A2: 2.13B1: 1.79B2: 1.61
Recent emissions
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
CO
2 E
mis
sion
s (G
tC y
-1)
5
6
7
8
9
10Actual emissions: CDIACActual emissions: EIA450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
CO
2 E
mis
sion
s (G
tC y
-1)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30Actual emissions: CDIAC450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2
Observed: 3.5%from 2000-2007
Actual: 0.9%from 1900-2000
Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Updated with data from CDIAC
20062005
20072008
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To what are we adapting?: Temperature Thresholds and Projected Ecosystem Impacts
At 3°C (5.4°F, 550 ppmv CO2e)● Several Meters of Sea Level Rise● Widespread Coral Mortality● 50% of Permafrost Thaws
IPCC. 2007. Working Group II: Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation
At 2°C (3.6°F, 450 ppmv CO2e)● Retreat of Greenland and Antarctic Ice● Increased Damage from Floods and Storms● Most Corals Bleached
At 4°C (7.2°F, 650 ppmv CO2e)● Mid-Latitude Glaciers Disappear● Major Extinctions Around the Globe● Terrestrial Biosphere Becomes Net Carbon Source
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San Francisco
San Diego
Los Angeles
Sacramento
Bakersfield
20th Century Observations
To what are we adapting?
Summer High Temperature
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2070-2099 B1 Scenario Projections, 2°C
20th Century Observations
Summer High Temperature
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2070-2099 A2 Scenario Projections , 3°C2070-2099 B1 Scenario Projections , 2°C20th Century Observations
Summer High Temperature
Adaptation
Low Med High Unprece-dentedStress
Unc
erta
inty
Hig
hL
ow
Drought stress
2°C emissions scenario
Drought stress3°C emissions scenario
Heat stress 2°C emissions scenario
Heat stress3°C emissions scenario
2°C
3°C
Climate Stress Index
Conservation planning more complicated – shifts, sources, sinks and connections
2°CCurrent 3°C
Protected area withcurrent climate space, source at 2°C and 3°C
Protected area climate space at 2°C,Sink at 2°C
Current climate space of protected area
Protected area climate space at 3°CSink at 3°C
Region
Connectivity
Fragmentationupslope
nort
hw
ard
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BIODIVERSITY SECURITYIN CALIFORNIA
Mount Hamilton
Drought Stress Index
Medium Change, Low Uncertainty
Heat Stress Index
High Change, Low Uncertainty
Mount Hamilton Project
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Ahead of the Curve:Role of NCCPs on ground
NCCPs Protect:
• Core habitat areas
• Corridors
• Buffers
© Tom Klare© Tom Klare
Federal Legislation: State of Play
House has passed Waxman-Markey billAdaptation section drafted by House Natural Resources Committee
“Discharged” by EPW committeeS. 1733 Kerry/ Boxer bill“Clean Energy, Jobs and American Power”
Act
Recently introduced:S. 1933
Bingaman/Baucus/Whitehouse/Udall“Natural Resources Climate Adaptation
Act”
© Tom Klare© Tom Klare
Beyond the False Dichotomy:Nature and People
Resilient natural resources provide us with the food, clean water, shelter and income we all rely upon for survival.
© Tom Klare© Tom Klare
Why do we care?:“Ecosystem Services”
In general.—The term “ecosystem services” means the provision, by a healthy ecosystem, of natural resources to improve human health and livelihood.
© Tom Klare© Tom Klare
Out of the mouths of Senators:
Inclusions.—The term “ecosystem services” includes—
(i) a clean and abundant water supply;
(ii) carbon storage;(iii) biodiversity;(iv) pollination services;(v) wildlife habitat;(vi) recreation; and(vii) a scenic or historic
landscape.
© Tom Klare© Tom Klare
What do we do?:Natural Resources Adaptation
Natural resources.—The term “natural resources” means land, wildlife, fish, air, water, estuaries, plants, habitats, and ecosystems.
Natural resources adaptation.—The term “natural resources adaptation” means the protection, restoration, and conservation of natural resources so that natural resources become more resilient, adapt to, and withstand the ongoing and expected impacts of climate change.
© Tom Klare© Tom Klare
Adaptation Provisions in Federal legislation
Planning • Federal• State
Funding• Domestic
– States – Federal agencies
• International
Provides data and science to inform
Natural Resources Climate Change Adaptation PanelEstablished no later than 90 days after enactmentChair – Chair of CEQMembers (heads of the following:)•NOAA, USFS, NPS, USFWS, BLM, USGS, BOR, BIA, EPA, Army
Corps and FEMA Natural Resources
Climate Change Adaptation Strategy
• No later than one year after enactment.• An overarching national strategy “to protect, restore, and conserve natural resources to enable them to become more resilient, adapt to, and withstand impacts of climate change and ocean acidification.• Federal agency and state plans must be consistent with national strategy.• Reviewed and updated every 5 years.
The President
State Natural Resources Adaptation Plans*No later than one year after National Adaptation Strategy
*Required to get funding under this act.
CEQ advises on:• Nat’l Resources Climate Change Adaptation Strategy• Fed. agency plans
Federal Agency
Adaptation Plans
No later than one year after National Adaptation Strategy
Agencies develop
Develops (in coordination with Panel)
Consistency
Science Advisory Board• Established no later than 180 days after enactment• 10-20 expert members
Natural Resource Climate Change Adaptation Science and Information
No later than 90 days after enactment
Secretary of Interior(through USGS)National Global Warming and Wildlife Science Center
Sec. of Commerce(through NOAA)National Climate Service
Appoint
Coordination
Approves
ApprovesAdvise Appoint
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Role of HCPs/NCCPs in legislation:Planning(e) Coordination With Other Plans.—The
State plan shall, if appropriate, integrate the goals and measures set forth in other natural resources conservation strategies established pursuant to applicable law (including regulations), including—
(7) recovery plans for threatened species and endangered species under section 4(f) of the Endangered Species Act of 1973 (16 U.S.C. 1533(f));
(8) habitat conservation plans under section 10 of that Act (16 U.S.C. 1539)
© Tom Klare© Tom Klare
Role of HCPs/NCCPs in legislation:Funding
Domestic Natural System Adaptation to receive 1% of auction proceeds, ramping up to 4% in late 2020s
Section 6 competes with at least 12 other programs for 5% of that
Roughly $25M, ramping up to $200M
Also, NCCPs could compete for a share of CA’s allocation for implementing state plan
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Funding: Dedicated and Additive
All amounts deposited into the Fund shall be available without further appropriation or fiscal year limitation.
Deposits in the Land and Water Conservation Fund under this clause shall be supplemental to funds provided under section 3 of the Land and Water Conservation Fund Act of 1965 (16 U.S.C. 460l–6), which shall remain available for non-adaptation needs;
© Tom Klare© Tom Klare
Local Governments: On the front lines
Policy is necessarily global • We share one atmosphere
Action is often local• We live on the ground