Climate change and energy security

BIICL Annual Conference 2010 11th June 2010

Professor Julia King CBE FREngAston University BirminghamMember of the Committee on Climate Change

● Climate change: why are we worried?

● Global and national targets

● UK – energy use and climate change

● Energy security and climate change mitigation

● Conclusions

● Business as usual: a high probability of global average temperature rise in excess of 4o, possibly as early as 2060

● Europe 8o warmer,12o on hottest day

● North America 10 – 12o warmer: Toronto, Chicago, New York, Washington DC

● Maize and wheat yields reduced by up to 40% at low latitudes

● Rice yields down 30% in China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia

● By 2080 40% of the world’s population has less than 1000 litres of water per year that’s just 3 litres a day or a bath a month

● 20 - 30% plant and animal species at high risk of extinction

● Sustained global temperature increase of 2o: 20 – 40% decline in rainforest

The impacts of climate change

BAU: land with decreased crop suitability in 2100

Met Office 2009

Or…security implications of climate change

Climate change

Public health

Migration and refugees Rise in extremism in

badly affected areas

Public discontent/disorder

Failure of critical infrastructure

Communications and transport

Strategic products and technologies

International relations

Energy security

Uninsurable risks

The impacts of climate change

Source: IPCC

● Climate change: why are we worried?

● Global and national targets

● UK – energy use and climate change

● Energy security and climate change mitigation

● Conclusions

Required global emissions reduction

Required global emissions reduction of 50%

• 20-24 GtCO2e emissions in 2050

• 8-10 GtCO2e in 2100

Required global emissions reduction of 50%

• 20-24 GtCO2e emissions in 2050

• 8-10 GtCO2e in 2100

Why?• Advances in science• Actual emissions higher

than forecast

Why?• Advances in science• Actual emissions higher

than forecast

Assessment of damageDecision rule:• keep temperature

change close to 2°C and probability of 4°C increase at very low levels

Assessment of damageDecision rule:• keep temperature

change close to 2°C and probability of 4°C increase at very low levels

Global trajectories considered

• Early or later peak (2015 vs. 2030)

• 3%/4% annual emissions reduction

Global trajectories considered

• Early or later peak (2015 vs. 2030)

• 3%/4% annual emissions reduction

Appropriate developed country/UK contribution

50% global reduction 50% global reduction

Burden share• Alternative methodologies (contract and

converge, intensity convergence, triptych etc.)

• Equal per capita emissions:

I 20-24 GtCO2e global total in 2050

I implies 2.1-2.6 tCO2e per capita

Burden share• Alternative methodologies (contract and

converge, intensity convergence, triptych etc.)

• Equal per capita emissions:

I 20-24 GtCO2e global total in 2050

I implies 2.1-2.6 tCO2e per capita

All GHGsAll GHGsAviation and shipping included Aviation and shipping included

2.1-2.6 CO2e per capita gives a UK reduction of at least 80% by 2050

● In 2050 total CO2e per head needs to be

2.1 – 2.6 tonnes per annum

● A return flight to Los Angeles for 1 person

2.5 tonnes

● An average new car today (160g/km), driven

15,000km per year, emits

2.4 tonnes per annum

So what does that mean?

Global CO2 emissions

Source: WRI (2006)

Global CO2 emissions

Source: WRI (2006)

Energy emissions

How do we deal with global issues?

● Copenhagen, December 2009

● 120 Heads of State

● Agreement to keep below 2o

● No binding global agreement to reduce emissions

● But individual country targets

● now received from over 100 countries

● Potential to deliver 50% global reduction

● Climate change: why are we worried?

● Global and national targets

● UK – energy use and emissions

● Energy security and climate change mitigation

● Conclusions

178

135

97

109

94

42

2007 emissions

International aviation & international shipping*

UK non-CO2 GHGs

Other CO2

Industrial CO2 (heat & industrial processes)

Residential, public & commercial heat

Domestic transport

Electricity generation

* bunker fuels basis 2050 objective

159 Mt CO2e

679 Mt CO2e

76% cut (= 80% vs. 1990)

The scale of the UK CO2 challenge

Committee on Climate Change October 2009

Energyemissions

Meeting required reductions

Reducing power sector emissions:

Renewables (Wind, solar, tidal and marine, biomass), nuclear, CCS

Reducing power sector emissions:

Renewables (Wind, solar, tidal and marine, biomass), nuclear, CCS

Reducing heat emissions: • Energy efficiency• Lifestyle change• Electric heat (e.g. heat pumps,

storage heating)• Biomass boilers• CCS in industry

Reducing heat emissions: • Energy efficiency• Lifestyle change• Electric heat (e.g. heat pumps,

storage heating)• Biomass boilers• CCS in industry

Reducing transport emissions: • Fuel efficiency• Electric/plug-in hybrids• Bio fuels (first vs. second

generation)

Reducing transport emissions: • Fuel efficiency• Electric/plug-in hybrids• Bio fuels (first vs. second

generation)

Application of power to transport

and heat

Power generation to 2050

Power sector decarbonisation

Emissions intensity to 2050

UK electricity installed capacity

DECC 2009

UK electricity generation 1996 - 2008

DECC 2009

Capacity and generating mix 2008 & 2020

CCC 2009

Generating capacity Generating mix

By 2020:Extra 23GW wind: 27GW total3 new nuclear plantsCCS demonstration plants

UK emissions 2006

2006 emissions

International aviation & shipping*

UK non-CO2 GHGs

Other CO2

Industry (heat & industrial processes)

Residential & Commercial heat

Domestic transport

Electricity Generation

* bunker fuels basis

695 Mt CO2e

Non-energy emissions

Oil

Oil, Gas, Coal,Electricity, Renewables

Oil, Gas, Coal,Electricity, Renewables

Oil,Renewables

Gas, Coal,Nuclear,Renewables

● Climate change: why are we worried?

● Global and national targets

● UK – energy use and climate change

● Energy security and climate change mitigation

● Conclusions

Energy security

● Physical security: avoiding involuntary

interruptions to supply

● Price security: avoiding spikes and providing

energy at reasonable prices to consumers

● Geopolitical security: ensuring the UK retains

independence in foreign policy by avoiding

dependence for energy on particular nationsDECC EMO 2008

Primary energy supply in the UK

Global energy suppliesDECC Energy Indicators

UK energy supply

● 2007 net importer – 20% of energy supply

● Crude oil: net imports of 7.5% of consumption

● Gas: 21% imported

● Coal: 72% imported

● 2025 increasing levels of imports:

● Crude oil: 61% imported

● Gas: 63% imported

● Coal: predictions less clear

● 2050 continuing upward trend in % imported

Where will our energy come from?

IEA World Energy Outlook 2008

By 2030 world energy demand will be up by 45%Fossil fuels sourced from less stable areas of the world

Some key import routes and suppliers for the future

● Oil and Gas

● Strait of Hormuz

● Suez Canal

● ….

● Gas

● Russia

● Turkey

● Coal

● Russia

Fossil fuel dependency → increasing energy insecurity

Capacity and generating mix 2008 & 2020

CCC 2009

Generating capacity Generating mix

By 2020:Extra 23GW wind: 27GW total3 new nuclear plantsCCS demonstration plants

Meeting required reductions

Reducing power sector emissions:

Renewables (Wind, solar, tidal and marine, biomass), nuclear, CCS

Reducing power sector emissions:

Renewables (Wind, solar, tidal and marine, biomass), nuclear, CCS

Reducing heat emissions: • Energy efficiency• Lifestyle change• Electric heat (e.g. heat pumps,

storage heating)• Biomass boilers• CCS in industry

Reducing heat emissions: • Energy efficiency• Lifestyle change• Electric heat (e.g. heat pumps,

storage heating)• Biomass boilers• CCS in industry

Reducing transport emissions: • Fuel efficiency• Electric/plug-in hybrids• Bio fuels (first vs. second

generation)

Reducing transport emissions: • Fuel efficiency• Electric/plug-in hybrids• Bio fuels (first vs. second

generation)

Application of power to transport

and heat

More radical renewables and nuclear strategies are feasible

CCC 2009

High feasible scenario for operational wind: 39% of generation

Severn barrage 8.6MW: 10% of generation………..

Existing low carbon electricity markets

CCC 2009

● Climate change: why are we worried?

● Global and national targets

● UK – energy use and climate change

● Energy security and climate change mitigation

● Conclusions

Conclusions

● Fossil fuel dependency → increasing energy

insecurity and increased global insecurity and

instability

● Climate change mitigation → increasing energy

security and global stability

● Security, energy security, climate change impacts

and climate change mitigation are closely linked

● Joined-up thinking and planning are required to

ensure we address them together

UK path to an 80% or more reduction in 2050

2050 2008

Wind and nuclear

Energy efficiency improvement

Renewable heat

Electric heat

Electric cars/plug in hybrids

20201-2% of GDP

in 2050

Other renewable and CCS