climate change and conflict in bangladesh

Climate Change and Conflict in Bangladesh

Matthijs van der HoornJune 18, 2009

Introduction

Climate Change Climate Change

Violent ConflictViolent Conflict

Introduction

The Coming Anarchy (Kaplan, 1994).

‘Climate change will help produce insurgencies, genocide, guerrilla attacks, gang warfare, and global terrorism’ (Homer-Dixon, 2007).

300.000 people die of climate change every year (Global Humanitarian Forum, 2009).

Introduction

Bangladesh: A nation at the frontline of the climate change crisis (Global Humanitarian Forum, 2009).

22 million Bangladeshis would become refugees due to climate change impacts by 2050 (IPCC, 2007).

30 million people in 19 of 64 districts along the southern coastline have already been exposed to climate change (EquityBD, 2009).

Paradox

First Paradox: Global warming only subject of debate for de last

fifteen years. Large decrease of number of conflicts.

Second Paradox: Not empirical foundation. Indicative stories.

Paradox

* Buhaug et al, 2008: Implications of Climate Change for Armed Conflict* Buhaug et al, 2008: Implications of Climate Change for Armed Conflict

Central Question

Can climate change cause violent conflict in Bangladesh?

Can climate change cause violent conflict in Bangladesh?

Research Model

Climate changeClimate change

VulnerabilityAdaption

VulnerabilityAdaption

ConsequencesConsequences

Violent conflict

Violent conflict

Social EffectsSocial Effects

Political Instability

Economic Instability

Social Fragmentation

Migration

Intrastate

Interstate

Scarcity of Resources (Food, water,

and soil insecurity)

Increase of Natural

Disasters

Temperature Change

PrecipitationChange

Sea Level Rise

Mega Events (extremes)

Research Model

Climate changeClimate changeVulnerability

AdaptionVulnerability

AdaptionConsequencesConsequences

Scarcity of Resources

(Food, water, and soil

insecurity)

Increase of Natural

Disasters

Temperature Change

PrecipitationChange

Sea Level Rise

Mega Events (extremes)

Climate Change

Change of Climate over time

Situation A Situation B

Time

Climate Change

Climate change Temperature Change Precipitation Change Sea Level Rise Mega Events

*Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)*Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Vulnerability and Adaption

Vulnerability → Geographical location. → Population pressure. → Economic dependents on coastal zone.

Adaption → Measures to adapt to new environmental

circumstances (new agricultural methods, cyclone preparedness).

Vulnerability and Adaption

*UNDP, 2004: A Global Report: Reducing Disaster Risk: A Challenge for Development*UNDP, 2004: A Global Report: Reducing Disaster Risk: A Challenge for Development

Scarcity of Resources

Scarcity of Resources: A low (per capita) availability of a renewable

resource, such as: soil, food and freshwater. Decreasing supply or increasing demand

(population pressure, increasing consumption ).

Relation to Climate Change

Temperature Rise-Increasing drought

Precipitation change -Increase in annual

rainfall- Occurrence of short

duration heavy rainfall-Rainfall at unexpected

time

-Crop failure- Increasing fresh water

demand

- Crop failure-Erosion of indigenous

knowledge - Floods

Relation to Climate Change

Mega Events - Extreme temperatures

-Crop failure

Sea Level Rise - Salinity intrusion

- River bank erosion- Coastal erosion

- Decreasing fresh water supply

- Degradation of Agricultural land

Temperature Rise

*Debsarma and Hassan, 2007, Bangladesh Meteorological Department*Debsarma and Hassan, 2007, Bangladesh Meteorological Department

Drought

*Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 2006*Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 2006

Rainfall

*International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), 2008*International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), 2008

Winter Pre-mosoon Mosoon Post-mosoon

Annual

Bhola -4.1 -9.40 -52.20 -1.05 -66.00

Barisal 4.35 20.30 -10.50 -5.05 8.70

Khulna 8.45 13.74 21.66 5.98 51.94

Satkhira 8.18 16.17 37.93 4.57 65.54

Chittagong 7.03 39.17 -14.32 -2.51 -5.25

Hatiya* 4.75 24.94 83.52 -0.51 140

M. Court 2.83 33.39 -9.12 1.1 19.43

Cox’s Bazaar 6.68 35.3 78.16 8.82 117.54

Sandwip* 5.93 70.72 45.22 -6.2 152.02

* 1967 - 2007

Rainfall


Floods

*EM-DAT, Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED)*EM-DAT, Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED)

Salinity intrusion

Soil Resources Development Institute (SRDI), 1998Soil Resources Development Institute (SRDI), 1998

Salinized soil in Jessore, Magura, Narail, Faridpur, Gopalgoni, and Jhalokati

from 1973 - 1997

Erosion and Accretion

*Maminul Haque Sarker and CEGIS*Maminul Haque Sarker and CEGIS

Erosion and accretion along the Bangladeshi coastline

from 1973 to 2005

Agricultural Land

*Worldbank, 2009: World Development Indicators, DPP Quick Query*Worldbank, 2009: World Development Indicators, DPP Quick Query

Crop and Food Production


Fresh water


Year % of the population with access to fresh

water

% of the rural population with access to fresh

water

% of the urban population with access to fresh

water

1990 78 76 88

2000 79 77 86

2006 80 78 85

Year Renewable internal fresh water resources (x billion

cubic meters)

Per Captia (cubic meters)

2002 105 billion 724

2007 105 billion 662

Climate Change and Scarcity of Resources

Decrease of pre-mosoon temperature, increase of winter, mosoon, and post-mosoon temperature (not more than global average).

No significant increase of drought. Rainfall is highly variable from year to years. No

significant variation in average rainfall (50 year scale).

Floods, variable from year to year. Small increase of number of floods, decrease of affected people.


Salinity intrusion, ongoing process related to sea level rise.

Erosion and accretion: likely that there is a relation between riverbank erosion and climate change.

The relation between accretion and climate change is unclear.


Degradation of agricultural land (meanly in late eighties and early nineties).

Growing crop and food production. Stable fresh water supply (in combination with a

increasing population, 2% a year).

Increase of Natural Disasters

Natural Disasters Global warming is predicted to increase the

frequency and intensity of tropical storms, floods, landslides, and wild fires.

A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society causing widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses which exceed the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources’ (UNISDR, 2006).

Natural Disasters


Hydro-meteorological

Natural DisastersNatural Disasters

GeophysicalGeophysical ClimatologicalClimatological MeteorologicalMeteorologicalHydrologicalHydrological

EarthquakesEarthquakes

Volcano’sVolcano’s

Dry mass movements

Dry mass movements

DroughtsDroughts

WildfiresWildfires

Extreme temperature

Extreme temperature

FloodsFloods

Wet mass movementsWet mass

movements

StormsStorms

Natural Disasters


Natural Disasters Bangladesh


Tropical Cyclones


Floods and Storms


Climate Change and Natural Disasters

Floods, variable from year to year. Small increase of number of floods, decrease of number of affected people.

Storms, variable from year to year. Decrease of tropical cyclone frequency. Positive relationship of frequency of ‘Cyclone

storm of hurricane intensity’ and ‘sea surface temperature’ (IUCN, 2008).

Climate Change Consequences

Likely that there is a relation between climate change and food, fresh water, and soil security.

Possible that there is a relation between climate change and an increase of cyclone storms of hurricane intensity.

But, no smoking gun.

Research Model

ConsequencesConsequencesScarcity of Resources

(Food, water, and soil

insecurity)

Increase of Natural

Disasters





Migration

Political instability

The majority of violent conflicts can be explained, at last partly, by scarcity of fundamental resources and the disability of the state to proved them (Buhaug .et al, 2008)

Disability of a government to properly react, at for example the impact of a cyclone, can cause political unrest.

Political instability

Environmental change was not a big issue by the last elections.

Rural people are more focused on local politicians. People accept that the poor and institutionally weak

regime may simple not be able to respond in an manner that is satisfying for the population.

Not likely that climate change will cause political instability.

Economic instability

Poverty has long been considered a major cause of civil war (Collier et al, 2003)

Increasing inequality

Dynamics – State level– Group level – Individual level



% of population

below poverty line

% of rural population

below poverty line

% of urban population

below poverty line

1996 51 55 29

2000 49 52 35

2005 40 44 28


Likely that climate change (scarcity of resources and natural disasters) can cause economic instability on an individual level.

Likely that climate change can cause economic instability on a group level.

(Less) likely that climate change can cause economic instability on an state level.


Ethnicity is widely regarded as a facilitator for mobilization, and language, religion, and nationality often serve as lines of demarcation between contending groups.

Ethnic identity is a crucial opportunity factor for building organizations, finding allies, and turning protest into collective violence (Khan, 2006)


Some violence between Muslims and Hindus.

Bengals and Hill people in the Chittagong Hill Tract (CHT).

Not evidence for a link between climate change and social fragmentation.

Migration

Competition between newcomers and local over diminishing natural and economic resources, especially if property rights are underdeveloped.

A wave of migrants of different ethnic origin may give rise to ethnic tension and solidification of identities.

Large flows of migrants may case mistrust between the sending and receiving state.

Climate-induced migration may create or exacerbate traditional fault lines.

Migration

*M. Z. Hossain, 2001*M. Z. Hossain, 2001

50% Temporary services

26% Permanent

Job

12% Dependency

6% Education

Adult between 20 and 29Unmarried

Migration

Temporary Services - Uneducated - 38% poverty, 30% better job opportunity, 15% family pressure

Permanent Job- Educated- Better job opportunity


Migration


Migration

*Bureau of Manpower Employment and Training (BMET) *Bureau of Manpower Employment and Training (BMET)

Migration

875 thousand people went overseas in 2008 (meanly U.A.E and Malaysia, 65%).

One third of the migrants goes overseas (Hossian, 2001).

Educated guess: 2.5 million migrants a year. 1.25 million temporary (labour) migrants 600 thousand permanent (labour) migrants. 1.7% of the total population.

Migration

Climate RefugeeClimate Refugee

Economic Migrant

Economic Migrant

Migration

People don’t want to leave there homes (Atiq Rahman, 2009).

Life is not better across the border in West-Bengal, Bihar, or Tripura.

Not likely that climate change will cause (large scale) migration to India.

Likely that some of the increase of temporary migration is related to climate change (day labour).

Research Model





Migration

Violent conflict Violent conflict

Intrastate

Interstate

Violent Conflict

*UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset and PRIO Battle Deaths Dataset*UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset and PRIO Battle Deaths Dataset

Natural Disasters causing conflict

*German Advisory Council on Global Change *German Advisory Council on Global Change


1. Hurricane Hazel in Haiti, 19542. Typhoon in East Pakistan, 19703. Flooding and typhoon in Bangladesh, 19744. Flooding in Orissa (India), 1980 5. Flooding in Bihar (India), 19876. Flooding in Bangladesh, 19887. Hurricane Mitch in Nicaragua and Honduras, 19988. Flooding of the Yangtze in Anhui (China), 1998 9. Typhoon in Orissa and West Bengal (India), 199910. Flooding and landslides in Venezuela, 199911. Flooding in West Bengal (India), 200012. Hurricane Ivan in Haiti, 200413. Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans (USA), 2005



2. Typhoon in East Pakistan, 1970: 300,000 people fell victim to a typhoon in East Pakistan (today’s Bangladesh). Dissatisfaction over the government’s insufficient aid measures led to a strengthening of the separatist opposition. The government responded with repression and violence. The civil war that followed claimed about 3 million lives. Bangladesh gained independence in 1971.

3. Flooding and typhoon in Bangladesh, 1974: In addition to claiming 30,000

victims, the ensuing destruction of a large part of the rice crop triggered a famine. In a political situation that was already tense the government called a state of emergency and established a presidential dictatorship. In the same year the President was murdered by the military. A transitional military government took over.

6. Flooding in Bangladesh, 1988: Anti-government resistance intensified in

the aftermath of the disaster. Civil unrest grew, headed by the oppositional parties. Two years of political chaos followed, eventually leading to the overthrow of the President.


Interstate Conflict

Conflict with India? India intervened in Bangladesh (East-Pakistan)

in 1971, after a great influx of refugees. Large scale climate refugees not likely. Not likely that climate change will cause

interstate conflict (between Bangladesh – India ).

Intrastate Conflict

Settlement and land rights. Erosion and accretion. Reverse ‘robin hood effect’. L and grabbers, and landless people.

Competition for Alternatives. Urban Gangs. Possible that climate change is one of the

explaining variable in intrastate conflict / disputes.

Conclusion

Conclusion

Likely that there is a relation between climate change and food, fresh water, and soil security.

Possible that there is a relation between climate change and an increase of cyclone storms of hurricane intensity

Not likely that climate change will cause political instability.

More likely that there is a link between climate economic instability (individual and group level).

Conclusion

No evidence for a relation between climate change and social fragmentation.

Likely that there is a link between climate change and temporary migration.

Less likely that there is a link between climate change and permanent migration (economic migrants vs climate refugee).

Conclusion

‘Consequences of consequences’ Bangladesh is located in a difficult environmental

area. Bangladesh is coping with environmental

problems since it’s existence. It’s not likely that a change in climate will cause

(large scale) violent conflict. Other variables are more important in explaining

(future) conflict in Bangladesh.

PopulationPressure

PopulationPressure

Inequality

Inequality

Introduction

Violent ConflictViolent Conflict

Climate Change Climate Change

Quality of leadership Quality of leadership

Poverty Poverty

Lack of opportunity

Lack of opportunity

Conclusion

Climate change could be a trigger, accelerator, or multiplier.

Bangladeshis status as climate vulnerable country could be advantageous, in for example maritime disputes or international (economical) negotiations.

Progress in adapting measures, despite of lack of funding.

VS

Conclusion

*Global Humanitarian Forum, 2009: A Anatomy of a Silent Crisis *Global Humanitarian Forum, 2009: A Anatomy of a Silent Crisis

Cyclone Sidr, Bangladesh

20073.400 deaths$ 1,6 billion

economic damage

Cyclone Nargis, Myanmar

2008150.000 deaths

$ 4 billion economic damage

Thank you for your attention…

…Question

climate change and conflict in bangladesh

Documents

implications of climate

climate change impacts

climate change equitybd

global report

global warming

year global humanitarian

adaption measures

global terrorism homerdixon