Climate change and Australian Farming Systems

Peter Hayman SARDI and Deirdre Lemerle CSU, Wagga

Climate Change and Farming Systems

High level of interest from contributed papers & posters to CCRSPI conference

Survey for Primary Industries Adaptation Research Network (PIARN)

GRDC review of grains RD&E – referred to “farming systems” 94 times

The study of farming systems in Australia has benefited from…

Hard systems thinking from ecology

Hard systems thinking from management science and operations research

Soft systems thinking from sociology

Different views of climate change and farming systems

• a biophysical ecosystem processing materials,

• a business or production system generating income,

• a family farm integrated into the wider rural community.

Nemani et al 2003 Science (6 June 03)

Climate is central to understanding of natural and managed systems

Ryan et al 2010

Legend

Goyders_line

Cropping areas 2008 Is this drought or aridity; drought or drying; variability or change; cycle or shift.

Legend

Goyders_line

Cropping areas 2008

Research on farming systems

• Level of study (farming systems)

Passioura 1979

• Meaning n+1 (Landscapes & communities)

• Level of study (farming systems)

• Explanation n-1 (crop and animal physiology, soil, weed science, plant pathology, entomology, climate science)

Legend

Goyders_line

Cropping areas 2008

MinnipaOrroroo

Increasing farm size changing rural communities

Passioura 1979

• Meaning (Landscapes & communities)

• Level of study (farming systems)

• Explanation (crop and animal physiology, soil, weed science, plant pathology, entomology, climate science)

Five Questions at the farming systems level

1) What are the climate change projections for my farming region?

2) What are the impacts of these changes?

3) What can be done to adapt ?

4) What are the risks and opportunities for my farm from policies to reduce emissions

5) How can I measure and manage emissions on my farm

CCRSPI 2008

1) What are the climate change projections for my farming region?

Predictions are not instructions that people simply follow to make better decisions. They are pieces of an intricate puzzle that may sometimes contribute to improved decisions. Daniel Sarewitz. Nature 463: 2010

Learn from failure of predicting earthquakes (robust buildings) as well as success of predicting cyclones.

Lyndoch

Nurioopta

Eden Valley

N

Thinking about future climates

Climate change projections from GCMS

Sensitivity analysis: 1,1.5, 2 degrees warming; 5%, 10%, 20% rainfall decline

GSR

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Rai

nfa

ll (m

m)

.

GSR

5yr running mean

April to October rainfall

April to October rainfall

April to October rainfall

Thinking about future climates

Climate change projections from GCMS

Sensitivity analysis: 1,1.5, 2 degrees warming; 5%, 10%, 20% rainfall decline

Temporal analogues

– eg drought

Spatial analogues – study a warmer & drier site

Ryan et al 2010

Five Questions at the farming systems level

2) What are the impacts of these changes?

The same climate state can have very different impacts.

Light soils vs heavy soils, sheep vs livestock, olives vs citrus.

Garnault: costs of climate change

• Type 1 – Direct costs –lower crop yield

• Type 2 – Indirect costs (eg tourism) – impact of dropping break crops

• Type 3 – Risk & insurance costs – not sowing due to fear of heat event

• Type 4 – Non market impacts – (eg species loss), changes to rural communities, food sovereignty.

Five Questions at the farming systems level

3) What can be done to adapt ?

Martin and Parry (1988) – stop just doing impact studies

Beyond the damage report

Recognise just how adaptive Australian agriculture – especially as measured by decades

The challenge of “additionality” in adaptation.

Howden et al 2010

Sep 2000

Sep 2002

Sep 2006

Five Questions at the farming systems level

1) What are the climate change projections for my farming region?

2) What are the impacts of these changes?3) What can be done to adapt ? 4) What are the risks and opportunities

for my farm from policies to reduce emissions

5) How can I measure and manage emissions on my farm

Garnaut 2010 (Aust J Ag & Res Ec)

• Agriculture will suffer from unmitigated climate change

• like the Australian economy as a whole, but more so, agriculture would be likely to face significant costs that were not balanced by benefits in the early stages of an Australian mitigation regime.

Different views of climate change and farming systems

• a biophysical ecosystem processing materials,

• a business or production system generating income,

• a family farm integrated into the wider rural community.

What destroyed the sand castle ? The wave or tide ?

What can we learn from the wave about future resilience and vulnerability ?

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

Weather – Season – Climate change

• We cannot reliably remember climate because memory generates meaning—not statistics…. our lives lurch between expectation and event, between the idea of climate and the reality of weather.

Sherratt (2005)