climate change and agriculture: impacts and costs of adaptation
DESCRIPTION
Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change in the Developing World: What will it Cost? IFPRI Policy Seminar October 5, 2009 Washington, DCTRANSCRIPT
Climate Change and AgricultureImpacts and costs of adaptation
Gerald C. Nelson
Senior Research Fellow
Environment and Production Technology Division
5 October 2009
Acknowledgements
The IFPRI authors
• Gerald C. Nelson, Mark W. Rosegrant, Jawoo Koo, Richard Robertson, Timothy Sulser, Tingju Zhu, Claudia Ringler, Siwa Msangi, Amanda Palazzo, Miroslav Batka, Marilia Magalhaes, Rowena Valmonte-Santos, Mandy Ewing, and David Lee
Thanks also to
• Ken Strzepek and Adam Schlosser of MIT for downscaled climate scenarios
• Urvashi Narain, Sergio Margulis, Bob Schneider, and other members of the EACC global study report of the World Bank
• ADB staff and reviewers for valuable comments and insights on the ADB report
Page 2
Preview of Results
Unchecked climate change will result in a 20 percent
increase in malnourished children by 2050
Agricultural productivity expenditures of over $7 Billion
per year are needed to compensate
Page 3
Outline
Climate Change Modeling Methodology
Impacts
• Yields, prices, production, trade
• Calorie consumption, child malnutrition
Adaptation Costs
• Need to reduce malnutrition
Conclusions and Policy Recommendations
Page 4
MODELING METHODOLOGY FOR
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Location-specific Biological and
Socioeconomic Modeling is Critical
Climate change brings location-specific changes
• in precipitation, temperature and variability to
• local agronomic and market conditions
Modeling challenge – To reconcile
• limited resolution of macro-level economic models with
• crop model detail
Result
• More realistic modeling of climate change effects
(biological and economic) on global/regional agriculture
Page 6
Global Change Model Components
Two GCM climate scenarios to show variability
• NCAR (wetter) and CSIRO (drier)
DSSAT crop model
• to estimate biological effects
ISPAM data
• to show where to estimate effects
IMPACT2009
• To integrate biological effects from crop and hydrology
results with detailed economic model
CLIMATE DATA:
TODAY AND SCENARIOS FOR
TOMORROW
Page 8
Temperatures have been rising…
Page 9Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
… and could increase much more
Source: Figure 10.4 in Meehl, et al. (2007)
Recent emissions
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
CO
2 E
mis
sio
ns (
GtC
y-1)
5
6
7
8
9
10Actual emissions: CDIAC
Actual emissions: EIA
450ppm stabilisation
650ppm stabilisation
A1FI
A1B
A1T
A2
B1
B2
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100C
O2 E
mis
sio
ns (
GtC
y-1)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30Actual emissions: CDIAC
450ppm stabilisation
650ppm stabilisation
A1FI
A1B
A1T
A2
B1
B2
2006
2005
2007
(Avgs.)
2008
Observed emissions are well above A2
simulated emissions
Page 11
SRES (2000)
A2 aver.
growth rate for
2000-2010
2.13 %
Observed
2000-2007
3.5%
Raupach et al 2007, PNAS; Global Carbon Project 2009, update
A2
AVERAGE ANNUAL
PRECIPITATION CHANGE IN
CLIMATE SCENARIOS DIFFER
GREATLY
Watch Sub-Saharan Africa, the Amazon, and South Asia
Change in Precipitation (mm), 2000-2050
CSIRO, A2, AR4
Change in Precipitation (mm), 2000-2050
NCAR, A2, AR4
CLIMATE CHANGE YIELD
EFFECTS
Climate change reduces average yields
Crop/
management
system
Sub Saharan
Africa
East Asia and
Pacific
South Asia
Irrigated rice
NCAR -14.1 -19.8 -15.5
CSIRO -11.4 -13.0 -17.5
Rainfed maize
NCAR -4.6 1.5 -7.8
CSIRO -2.4 -3.9 -2.9
Rainfed wheat
NCAR -21.9 -14.8 -44.4
CSIRO -19.3 -16.1 -43.7
Page 16
AVERAGES CONCEAL GREAT
VARIATION
Page 17
Irrigated rice
NCAR A2
CSIRO A2
Irrigated rice
Rainfed rice
NCAR A2
Rainfed rice
CSIRO A2
Rainfed maize
NCAR A2
Rainfed maize
CSIRO A2
FOOD SUPPLY, DEMAND AND
TRADE RESULTS
IMPACT2009
Biophysical effects from crop and hydrology models and
economic effects from global agriculture model
Climate Change Makes Food Price
Increases Greater
Page 25
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Rice Wheat Maize Soybeans
Do
llars
Per
Metr
ic T
on
2000 2050 No climate change 2050 CSIRO NoCF 2050 NCAR NoCF
Prices increase
without climate
change
Greater price
increases with
climate change
Rice Production
Page 26
Wheat Production
Page 27
Large production
increases in some
regions without
climate change
Climate change
eliminates those
gains
Maize Production
Page 28
Cereal Trade Flows
Page 29
… and therefore more
imports into
developing countries
Note that CSIRO results
in more exports from
developed countries
Note change in
direction for the
different scenarios
Climate Change Increases Childhood
Malnutrition
Page 30
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
South Asia East Asia and Pacific
Europe and Central Asia
Latin America and
Caribbean
Middle East and North
Africa
Sub Saharan Africa
Millio
ns o
f C
hild
ren
2000 2050 No CC 2050 with CC
Without climate change, child
malnutrition falls except in
Sub Saharan AfricaWith climate change, child
malnutrition increases
everywhere
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
COSTS
Our Definition of Agricultural Adaptation
Agricultural investments that reduce child malnutrition
with climate change to the level with no climate
change
What types of investments are considered?
• Agricultural research
• Irrigation expansion and efficiency improvements
• Rural roads
Page 32
Adaptation Costs are over $7 billion
Required additional annual expenditure
• Wetter NCAR scenario = US$7.1 billion
• Drier CSIRO scenario = US$7.3 billion
Regional level
• Sub-Saharan Africa - $3 billion (40% of the total), mainly for rural roads
• South Asia - US$1.5 billion, research and irrigation efficiency
• Latin America and Caribbean - US$1.2 billion per year, research
• East Asia and the Pacific - $1 billion per year, research and irrigation efficiency
Page 33
CONCLUSIONS AND
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
Conclusions
Climate change will have negative impacts
• Lower yields
• Higher prices
• More malnourished children
• Changes in trade flows reduce the negative effects
Agriculture is critical for
• Poverty reduction
• Economic development and
• Food security
Large additional expenditures should start now to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change
Page 35
Policy and Program Recommendations
Design and implement good overall development
policies and programs
Recognize that enhanced food security and climate-
change adaptation go hand in hand
At least $7 billion per year in additional productivity
investments are needed just for climate change
adaptation in developing countries
Page 36
Think and Act Globally and Locally
Global public goods are needed
• Improve global data collection, dissemination, and analysis
• Make agricultural adaptation a key agenda point within the international climate negotiation process
• Complete the Doha Round
• Expand international agricultural research
National public goods are needed
• Reinvigorate national research and extension programs
• Build supporting national infrastructure – roads, etc.
• Provide supportive policy environment
Local public goods are needed
• Support community-based adaptation strategies
Page 37
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