climate change analysis

7/29/2019 Climate change analysis

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Climate Presentation


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Water Resources Of Pakistan

Present Position

Indus River System annual average inflows are 137.87

MAF [Long Term Average (1922 2009)]

Large variability in annual water inflows, varied

between 98.54 MAF and 218.1 MAF

About 70 - 80% of Indus River System inflows

originating from melting of snow and glaciers

With increase in Population, Pakistan is becoming a

water stressed country. From 5650m/cap water

available in 1951 to about 1000 m/ cap in 2010.

2


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Climate Change Studies in WAPDA Eminent Professor from Stanford University Dr.

Wescoat in Collaboration with WAPDA studied

Impact on the flows of River Indus due to ClimateChange 1991.

UBC Watershed Model was used to generate future

flow scenarios This study using GISS and GFDL Models predicted

3.2C and 4.7C increase in temperature respectively

shown change in total annual inflows by 11% - 16% ..( Dr. J. Wescoat, 1991)


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CHANGES IN TOTAL RIVER INFLOWS UNDER VARIOUSCLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS (MAF)

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Months

ChangesinRiver

Flows

(MAF)

+ 2C + No CHGP +2C -20% P +2C +20%P GISS +30%P GFDL +20%P


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Climate Change Impacts on Weather

Wet Season rainfall could increase by 5% -50% by year 2070, with an associateddoubling in the frequency of high intensityrainfall events. (CSIRO study)


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2020s 2050s 2080s

Temperature Change T(C)

Northern

Pakistan1.41 0.13 3.09 0.29 5.32 0.53

SouthernPakistan 1.04 0.11 2.47 0.14 4.33 0.28

Precipitation Change P(%)

NorthernPakistan

5.15 1.87 6.20 3.87 6.06 6.15

Southern

Pakistan18.83 4.76 20.24 10.15 28.30 11.73

Climate Change Projections for Pakistan

Based on IPCC Scenario A2 Ensemble of 6 GCMs

Source: Climatology Section in GCISC*


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Climate Change over Pakistan Past & Future

During last century , average annual temperature overPakistan increased by 0.6C

Temperature increased over Northern Pakistan washigher than over Southern Pakistan (0.8C versus 0.5C)

It is predicted that average temperature over Pakistanwill increase in the range of

1.3 1.5 C by 2020,

2.5 2.8 C by 2050 and

3.9 4.4 C by 2080 (GCISC , GCM ensemble results)


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Climate Change over Pakistan Past & Future

Precipitation is projected to increaseslightly in summer and decrease in

winter with no significant change inannual precipitation

It is projected that climate change willincrease the variability of monsoon rainsand enhance the frequency and severity

of extreme events such as floods anddroughts


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Major Climate Change related Concerns

Increased variability of monsoons

Uncertainty about the fate of Upper IndusBasin glaciers and future water availabilityfrom them

Increased risks of Flood and Droughts Severe water and heat stressed conditions in

arid and semi arid regions, leading to reduced

agriculture productivity and powergeneration


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Major Climate Change related Concerns

Increased upstream intrusion of saline water

in Indus Delta, adversely affecting coastalagriculture, mangroves and breeding ground

for fish

Threat to coastal areas, including the city ofKarachi, due to sea level rise and increased

cyclonic activity due to higher sea surfacetemperatures


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Upper Indus Basin Glaciers

11


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Conflicting Reports on HKH Glacier Status

Although the glaciers all over the world are found to be receding over thepast century, those in the HKH region are reported to be receding fasterthan in any other part of the world and fears have been expressed that ifthe present rate of recession continues, the HKH glaciers might disappear

by 2035 (Rees and Collins 2004, WWF 2005, IPCC 2007) IPCC has recently retracted its statement about the rate of recession anddate of disappearance of Himalaya glaciers (IPCC 2010)

Batura glacier is retreating significantly in recent years (Shroder andBishop 1999)

Some of the Karakoram glaciers are surging rather than receding (Hewitt2005)

There is some uncertainty about the temporal

behaviour of Karakoram glaciers which have notbeen studied in detail because of their difficultterrain and steep slopes

12


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World Bank Report 2005

13


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Tarbela Average Decadal Flows

62.98

61.03

58.37

63.85

58.13

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

1961-1969 1969-1979 1979-1989 1989-1999 1999-2009

Inflow

Volumes(maf)

Avg = 61.482 maf


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15


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Upper Indus Basin Study Area

WESTER

NKARAKO

RAMS

16


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Climate Change Studies in WAPDA

Recently in 2008 a study focusing on the UpperIndus Basin 40 Years river flows trend was carried

out. Results and conclusions from the studies are:

Significant rising summer flows trend from the

Karakoram eastern tributaries indicate warmer

summers and glaciers recession in this region.

Significant falling summer flows trend from theKarakoram western tributaries indicate cooling

summers and stable or growing glaciers in this

region.


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River Indus at Tarbela - Annual Flows Trend

y = -0.0531x + 62.086

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

6

1-62

6

3-64

6

5-66

6

7-68

6

9-70

7

1-72

7

3-74

7

5-76

7

7-78

7

9-80

8

1-82

8

3-84

8

5-86

8

7-88

8

9-90

9

1-92

9

3-94

9

5-96

9

7-98

99-

2000

200

1-02

200

3-04

200

5-06

200

7-08

InflowsV

olume(MAF)


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River Indus at Kachura Eastern Karakorams

July

(Significant Rising Trend; Mann - Kendall Sig. Level= 98%)

y = 0.0628x + 6.1059

45

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Years

FlowV

olum

e(m

af)

19


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River Indus at Kachura Eastern Karakoram

August

( Significant Trend at Mann - Kendall 97.4% Sig. Level )

y = 0.0443x + 6.0162

45

6

7

8

9

10

11

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Period (years)

Flow

Volum

e

(m

illion

acre

feet)

20


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River Gilgit at Alam Bridge Western Karakoram

July

( Moderate Falling Trend; Mann - Kendall Sig. Level = 77% )

y = -0.0202x + 4.9132

3.03.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

Years

Flow

Volum

e

m

af

21


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River Gilgit at Alam Bridge Western Karakoram

August

( Significant Trend at Mann - Kendall 98.5% Sig. Level)

y = -0.039x + 4.7412

2.02.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

Period (years)

F

lowV

olum

e

(m

af)


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River Hunza at Dainyour Western Karakorams

July

(Significant Falling Trend; Mann - Kendall Sig. Level = 98%)

y = -0.0361x + 3.1346

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1993

1995

1997

Years

F

low

Volume

m

af

23


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River Hunza at Dainyour Western Karakoram

August( Significant Trend at Mann - Kendall 99.1% Sig. Level)

y = -0.0419x + 3.1628

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1993

1995

1997

Period (years)

Flow

Volum

e

(miilion

acre

fee

t)


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River Indus at Partab Bridge - July (1962 - 2005)

Man - Kendall Significance Level = 74%y = 0.0244x + 11.715

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

196

2

196

4

196

6

196

8

197

0

197

2

197

4

197

6

197

8

198

0

198

2

198

4

198

6

198

8

199

0

199

2

199

4

199

6

199

8

200

0

200

2

200

4

Flow

s(

m

af)


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Indus at Partab Bridge

August

( Significant Trend at Mann - Kendall 75.8% Sig. Leve)

y = -0.0155x + 11.809

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.012.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

16.0

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Period (years)

FlowV

olume(maf)


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Rising and Falling Trends observed in the Monthly Energy (Degree Days)of Upper Indus Basin High Altitude Weather Stations During 19952009

UIB

Stations

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Khunjerab Z Z Z Z R R F F F R Z Z

Ziarat Z Z R F R R F F F F R Z

Naltar R R R N R R F F F N N R

Yasin Z Z R R R R F F F R R Z

Ushkore R R R R R R N F F N R F

Hushey R R R R R R F N F F R R

Rama Z Z R F R R F F F F N Z

Rattu R R R N R R F F F N F R

Deosai Z Z Z F R R F F F R Z Z

Burzil Z Z Z R R R F F F R Z Z

R = Rising Trend ; F = Falling Trend ; N = No Trend; Z = Zero Degree Days


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Trend of Available Glacier Melt Energy at DCP Station Burzil (4000 masl)

(Total Degree Days during Jul; Aug; Sep. Mann-Kendal Sig. Lvl = 91%)

y = -5.2653x + 648.73

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

DegreeDays


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Trend of Available Glacier Melt Energy at DCP Station Naltar (2800 masl)(Total Degre e Days during Jul; Aug; Sep. Mann-Kendal Sig. Lvl. = 91%)

y = -6.2368x + 1469

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

1450

1500

1550

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

DegreeDays


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Trend of Available Glacier Melt Energy at DCP Station Khunjerab (4710 masl)(Total Degree Days during Jul; Aug; Sep. Mann-Kendal Sig. Lvl = 95%)

y = -6.7162x + 432.12

250

300

350

400

450

500

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Degr

eeDays


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WAPDA Future Plans

Establishment of Glacier Monitoring Research Centre

Study the Climate Change impacts on UIBCryoshpere and Forecast Long-Term water

availability from Upper Indus Basin Monitor Upper Indus Basin Glaciers

Conduct Mass-Balance studies for five selected

glaciers in four years and Carryout Mapping and Monitoring of more than 50

UIB glacier snouts

Training of its staff in using modern concepts,techniques and tools for water resources planningand management


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Other Concerns

WAPDA has planned its major Reservoirs andHydropower Projects in Upper Indus Basin.

For their safety and optimum operationfollowing measures are required:

Net work to monitor Floods from rains

Network for monitoring and management ofGLOFs

Set up to monitor and manage land slides

Sedimentation estimation and managementProgram


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