climate change: an opportunity for a bi-lateral approach driving technology innovation woodrow...
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Climate Change: An Opportunity for a Bi-Lateral Approach
Driving Technology Innovation
Woodrow Wilson International Center for ScholarsCanada InstituteMay 23, 2007Edward C LoweGeneral ManagerGE Energy
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GE Energy … a global technology business•Operating in more than 100
countries … 125+ years
•36,000 employees …~700 locations
•2006 revenue $19B
• Investing in cleaner technologies
– $3 billion invested over last 5 years
– Growing annual investment to $1.5 B by 2010
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Affordable, reliable & environmentally responsible
Global power generation requirements
Driving cost of electricity down
Effi
cie
ncy
Reliab
ilit
y
Em
issio
ns
EfficientDiverseNuclearWindGasCoalOil GeothermalBiomassHydroSolar
NuclearWindGasCoalOil GeothermalBiomassHydroSolar
+
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Requirements For Global Deployment of Cleaner Power Generation Technologies Predictable Stable Public Policy
• Policy should lead technology• Set reasonable stretch performance goals
Technology Advancements• Innovation coupled with enforceable IP
protection • Predictable policy provides confidence for
companies to invest for the long term
Investment In Manufacturing Supply Chain• New technology requires significant
manufacturing investments by the OEM and its suppliers
• Predictable stable policy encourages investment
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Global renewable installed capacity (GWs)
Source: REN21 2006 update + GE est (2/07)
182160
‘05‘04
Wind
All other
‘06
~210
• US capacity has grown from near zero to > 12,000 MW in 15 years
• Canada’s capacity has grown to 1.5 GW, 47% CAGR in 5 years
• 70 GW in 50 countries
• Global Wind to grow 13% CAGR through 2030
Clear Policy Accelerates Technology Development and Deployment – Wind Energy
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Global Wind deployment driven by technology advancements and public policy
‘85 ‘95 ‘050
5
10
20
COE (¢/kWh)
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Technology Investments Project scale
Public Policy Incentives
• Renewable Portfolio Standards
• Feed In Tariffs
• Production Tax Credits
• Investment Tax Credits
• Renewable Obligation Certificates
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IGCC – Cleaner By Design
In Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) plants, gasification converts low cost
fuels, like coal, into a high value, natural-gas-like fuel called synthesis gas (syngas) to fuel a
combined cycle system. In pulverized coal (PC) plants, coal is fed into a boiler, which combusts the coal, followed by post combustion
pollution controls.
•Treats 1/100th volume
•CO2 concentration 40-50% in syngas (IGCC) vs 14% in flue gas (PC)
•25% cost premium vs SCPC
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IGCC: Emissions Approaching Natural Gas
Source: GE internal data, average of 30 US permits granted, applications and publicly reported emissions
Advanced PC/SCPC
IGCC NGCC0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15NOxSO2PM10
Average RecentPermit Data
Best IndividualPlant L
b/M
MB
TU
0.09
0.03
0.16
0.017 0.02
0.010.01 0.01
0.0020.01
0.04
Water Usage
Hg
Hg % Captured
PC IGCC
50 -90%
90%+
PC IGCC
PC IGCC
PC IGCC
30-40%Less
• 90% + Hg removal• 30% less water• CO2 capture ready
• 33% less NOx
• 75% less SOx
• 40% less PM10
IGCC Environmental Benefits Versus Best in Class Supercritical
Pulverized Coal
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Technologies
Pathways
Carbon Capture Technology
•Amine Scrubbing
•IGCC
Post-Combustion
Pre-Combustion
•Oxy-Combustion
•Chilled Ammonia
•Membranes O2/CO2//H2
•High efficiency shift
•Pre-mix H2 combustor
CO2 $/Ton1
$441
$211
Tod
ay
Develo
pin
g Post-Combustion
Pre-Combustion
1 The Future of Coal, MIT 2007 Coal Energy Study
~$331
--
--
--
--
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Economics
gal/MW-hrWater Makeup4
kW penalty
Net Equiv. Eff.
Capital Cost
COE Increase
Avoided Cost $/MT
Raw Water Usage
CO25
40%-70%
$37,800
95%
$3,412
Removal %
$/lbMercury3
SCPC2IGCC1
-13%
-15%
+32%
+32%
35
15%
-18%6
-30%
+83%
+68%
75
123%
750 1042
1GE Energy Gasification Radiant, Illinois #6, 630MW Net (baseline), Selexoltm AGR2SCPC, 3500/1100/1100, Illinois #6, 550MW Net (baseline) Econaminetm scrubbing3The Cost of Mercury Removal in an IGCC Plant, DOE NETL, final report, Sept 20024 Power Plant Water Usage and Loss Study, DOE NETL, August 20055 Cost and Performance Comparison of Fossil Energy Plants, DOE NETL, Report 401/53106, May 2007 (Final), 90% CO2 capture6 Including STG equivalent power reduction from Econaminetm regeneration
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Uncertain Policy Hinders Deployment - IGCC
GHG uncertainty delaying Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle• Capacity additions based
on the lowest COE• Low carbon technologies
will be disadvantaged• Policy required that
monitizes the benefits or offsets their cost premium
• EPAct of 2005 with ITC provisions was a significant step forward in accelerating deployment IGCC
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Government Policy/Incentives to Accelerate Global Cleaner Coal•Expand the current investment tax credits authorized and funded
under the Energy Policy Act of 2005 to offset the current 20 – 25% CAPEX premium for IGCC or similar incentive
•Monitize benefits of lower criteria emissions (SOx, NOx, PM)
•Low carbon portfolio standard with trading among power generators for low carbon credits
•Carbon capture requirements for new coal power plants phased in over time
•CO2 allocations for new low carbon plants
•EOR and saline aquifer carbon storage demonstration projects
— Gov’t issued site selection criteria & monitoring reqm’ts
— De minimis leakage and liabilities for leakage must be addressed
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Accelerating Deployment of Low-Carbon Technologies Requires…
• Predictable Long term Public Policies
• Investments and advancements by technology providers
• Collaboration among multiple stakeholders for successful implementation