Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security:What the recent science says

Pramod Aggarwal, Sonja Vermeulen and Bruce Campbell

CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)

2

AR5: Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed 1.5oC

Global surface temperature in 2100:• is likely to exceed 1.5oC relative to 1850-1900 for all RCP scenarios except

RCP2.6.• is likely to exceed 2oC for RCP6.0 and RCP8.5• is more likely than not to exceed 2oC for RCP4.5.

3

AR5: Large spatial and temporal variability in temperature and precipitation

Extreme events will increase: length, frequency, and/or intensity of warm spells; heavy precipitation events to increase

4

Climate change has negatively affected wheat and maize yields for many regions. Smaller effects on rice and soybean yields.

Several periods of rapid price increases following climate extremes in recent times

AR5: The effects of climate change are already evident in several regions of the world (medium-high confidence)

5

AR5: Significant crop yield losses from the 2030s

Negative impacts of > 2oC in low latitudes; some (generally temperate) locations may benefit

After 2050 the risk of more severe impacts in tropics increases- increased inter-annual variability, price rise, nutritional quality; limited adaptation options

Global increases of ~4oC, combined with increasing food demand, would pose large risks to food security globally and regionally

6

(Source: Ericksen et al., 2011)Increased droughts, reduced surface and ground water will exacerbate threats in already vulnerable and food-insecure dry sub-tropics

Climate change interactions with other stresses increases vulnerability: Spotlight on Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia

7

Interactions between CO2 and ozone, mean temperature, extremes, water and nitrogen are non-linear and not yet understood

-10-505

101520

7

18

-8

Ch

an

ge

in

yie

ld,

%

AR5: Elevated ozone can reduce the benefits of CO2 on crop yields (high confidence)

8

1. Weather–based agro-advisories reach > 3 million farmers in India

2. Crop insurance covers 30 million farmers in India

3. Climate ready varieties in maize and rice

What are our adaptation options: Greater focus on climate risk management

Forecasting From satellite to cell phone

Risk insurance

Rapid payments so assets are protected

Technologies; practices, and

institutions

That cope with extremes

9

Integrated solutions leading to higher income, resilience, adaptation and mitigation:CCAFS Climate-Smart Villages

10

Conclusions for Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security

1. Climate change impacts food security.2. Increasing ozone concentration.3. Increasing weather variability. 4. Vulnerability limits adaptation in developing countries5. Need for right incentives, investments, institutions and

policies.

11

www.ccafs.cgiar.orgsign up for blogs and e-bulletins

Twitter: @cgiarclimate

Increased investment in climate-smart agriculture will

ensure global peace, equity and prosperity