Climate Change: A Time For Action

From A Climate Champion To My Target Audience : Friends across India / Overseas Indians - Jagadisan Chandrashekharan

What Is Climate Change?

“Climate change is one of the major challenges of our time and adds considerable stress to our societies and to the environment. From shifting weather patterns that threaten food production, to rising sea levels that increase the risk of catastrophic flooding, the impacts of climate change are global in scope and unprecedented in scale. Without drastic action today, adapting to these impacts in the future will be more difficult and costly.”

---United Nations Environment Program (UNEP)1

Why Should We Worry About Climate Change?

95% of Scientists agree that Human-Influenced Climate Change is REAL and threatens to roll back the development gains achieved so far while grinding millions of people back into extreme poverty. We are heading for frequent and unprecedented:

- Heat Extremes - Droughts & Precipitations

- Floods - Rise in Ocean Levels/Acidification

- Risks to Bio-diversity, Ecosystems - Risks to Fisheries, Coral Reefs

- Food Shortage - Risks to Global Water Resources

- Health Hazards - Frequent Vector-borne diseases

A PLUS 2°C world is going to be pretty bad, a PLUS 4°C world will be Devastating, perhaps, the start of the 6th Extinction! We must NOT allow that to happen by stepping up our Mitigation, Adaptation, and Directed Risk & Resilience Management work. The scale of challenges is enormous, calling our focus on the least number of Vital things that can have the greatest impact.

ACT NOW! ACT TOGETHER ( Locally, Nationally & Globally)!

ACT DIFFERENTLY TO SAVE HUMANITY!

Immediate Impact Of Climate Change In India

Potential to exacerbate endemic malaria, dengue, yellow fever, cholera, and chikungunya2

Potential to change the ecology of of various vector-borne diseases, such as malaria, dengue, chikungunya, Japanese encephalitis, kala-azar, and filariasis3

Vulnerable population: The millions who experience poor sanitation,

pollution, malnutrition, and a shortage of drinking water

Elderly, children, urban populations and the poor

Long-Term Impacts of Climate Change In India

To better understand the risks of climate change to development, the World Bank Group commissioned the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics to look at the likely impacts of temperature increases from 2ºC to 4ºC in three regions on agriculture, water resources, cities and coastal ecosystems in South Asia, South East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Some of their findings for India include:

Impact Of Extreme Heat

What Could

Happen What Can

Be Done

The west coast

and southern India

are projected to

shift to new, high-

temperature

climatic regimes

with significant

impacts on

agriculture

Unusual and

unprecedented

spells of hot

weather are

expected to

occur far more

frequently and

cover much

larger areas

Better planning

to reduce “heat-

island” effect in

built-up urban areas

India is already experiencing a very hot climate…

Impact Of Changing Rainfall Patterns

Current StatusA decline in

monsoon rainfall since the 1950s

has already been observed. The

frequency of heavy rainfall events has

also increased

What Could Happen – 2o

Increase- Unpredictable summer Indian Monsoon

What Could Happen – 4o

Increase- Extreme monsoon cycles every 10 years instead of 100 years- More frequent droughts and flooding- Dry years drier and wet years wetter

What Can Be Done- Better weather forecasting- Installation of flood warning systems- Improved evacuation procedures- Improved building codes to withstand severe flooding /rainfall

Impact Of Drought(s)

What Could

Happen What Can

Be Done

Significant

decrease in

crop yield bu

the 2040s due

to extreme heat

Increase in

frequency of

droughts in NW India

(Chathisgarh, Orissa,

Jharkhand)

Investments in

R&D for the

development of

drought-resistant

crops can help

reduce some of

the negative impacts

Parts of SE Asia have become drier since the 1970s while also experiencing more frequent droughts. This has affected the crops in India and lead to a huge fall in crop production

Impact On Groundwater

What

Could

HappenWhat Can

Be Done

This will further

decrease the

groundwater levels

More demand on falling

water tables can be

expected on account of

increasing demand for

water from a growing

population, more affluent

life styles, as well as from

the services sector and

industry

Incentivize

efficient use of

groundwater

(Rain water

harvesting/judic

ious use/drip

irrigation)

More than 60% of India’s agriculture is rain-fed, making the country highly dependent on groundwater. Even without climate change, 15% of India’s groundwater resources are overexploited

Impact Of Melting Glaciers

What Could

Happen What Can Be

Done

Alterations in the flows of the Indus,

Ganges, and Brahmaputra rivers

could significantly impact irrigation,

affecting the amount of food that can

be produced in their basins as well as

the livelihoods of millions of people

(209 million in the Indus basin, 478

million in the Ganges basin, and 62

million in the Brahmaputra basin in

the year 2005).

At 2.5°C warming, melting glaciers

and the loss of snow cover over the

Himalayas are expected to

threaten the stability and reliability

of northern India’s primarily

glacier-fed rivers, particularly the

Indus and the BrahmaputraMajor investments

in water storage

capacity would be

needed to benefit

from increased

river flows in

spring and

compensate for

lower flows later on.

• Glaciers in the northwestern Himalayas and in the Karakoram range - where westerly winter winds are the major source of moisture - have remained stable or even advanced.

• On the other hand, most Himalayan glaciers - where a substantial part of the moisture is supplied by the summer monsoon - have been retreating over the past century

Impact Of Rising Sea Level

What Could

Happen What Can

Be Done

Will cause a rise in diarrhea

cases and cholera outbreaks, as

the cholera bacterium survives

longer in saline water

Sea-level rise and storm

surges would lead to

saltwater intrusion in the

coastal areas, impacting

agriculture, degrading

groundwater quality,

contaminating drinking water

So close to the Equator,

the Indian sub-continent

would see much higher

flooding as compared to

coasts in higher altitudes

Coastal embankments

will need to be built

where necessary and

Coastal Regulation Zone

codes enforced strictly

Building codes will

need to be strictly

enforced and urban

planning will need to

prepare for climate-

related disasters)

• Mumbai has the world’s largest population exposed to coastal flooding, with large parts of the city built on reclaimed land, below the high-tide mark.

• Rapid and unplanned urbanization further increases the risks of seawater intrusion

Impact On Agriculture & Food Security

Current StatusEven without climate change, world food prices are expected to increase due to

growing populations and rising incomes, as well as a greater demand for biofuels

What Could Happen - Seasonal water scarcity, rising temperatures, and intrusion of seawater would threaten crop yields, jeopardizing the country’s food security - substantial yield reductions in both rice and wheat can be expected in the near and medium term

What Could Happen - Under 2°C warming by the 2050s, the country may need to import more than twice the amount of food-grain than would be required without climate change

What Can Be Done To Reduce Negative Impact

- Crop diversification- More efficient water use- Improved soil management practices- Development of drought-resistant crops

Impact On Energy Security

Current StatusClimate-related impacts on

water resources can undermine the two dominant forms of power generation in

India - hydropower and thermal power generation -

both of which depend on adequate water supplies to

function effectivelyTo function at full efficiency, thermal power plants need a constant supply of fresh cool

water to maintain their cooling systems

What Could Happen - The increasing variability and long-term decreases in river flows can pose a major challenge to hydropower plants and increase the risk of physical damage from landslides, flash floods, glacial lake outbursts, and other climate-related natural disasters

What Can Be Done To Reduce Negative Impact

- Projects will need to be planned taking into account climatic risks

Mitigation Of Effects Of Climate Change

Climate change mitigation:

Consists of actions to limit the magnitude and/or rate of long-term climate change.

Involves reductions in human (anthropogenic) emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs).

Increasing the capacity of carbon sinks, e.g., through reforestation.[

Mitigation policies can substantially reduce the risks associated with human-induced global warming.

"Mitigation is a public good; climate change is a case of ‘the tragedy of the commons’" Effective climate change mitigation will not be achieved if each agent (individual, institution or country) acts independently in its own selfish interest, suggesting the need for collective action. Some adaptation actions, on the other hand, have characteristics of a private good as benefits of actions may accrue more directly to the individuals, regions, or countries that undertake them, at least in the short term. Nevertheless, financing such adaptive activities remains an issue, particularly for poor individuals and countries.”

---International Cooperation and Emissions Trading

Why Is Renewable Energy Important To

India?According to the Indian Renewable Energy Status ReportBackground Report for DIREC 2010 NREL/TP-6A20-48948 October 2010 :

India has abundant, untapped renewable energy resources: A large land mass that receives among the highest solar irradiation in

the world A long coastline and high wind velocities that provide ample

opportunities for both land-based and offshore wind farms Significant annual production of biomass Numerous rivers and waterways that have potential for hydropower

Provides a buffer against energy security concerns. India’s use of its indigenous renewable resources will reduce its dependence on imported, expensive fossil fuels

Offers a hedge against fossil fuel price hikes and volatility

Off-grid renewable power can meet demand in un-served rural areas. As a distributed and scalable resource, renewable energy technologies are well suited to meet the need for power in remote areas that lack grid and road infrastructure

Why Is Renewable Energy Important To

India? Can be supplied to both urban and rural poor.

Offers the possibility of providing electricity services to the energy poor while addressing India’s greenhouse gas (GHG) concerns and goals

Can support attainment of India’ climate change goals. Through its National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) and through its recently announced carbon intensity goal, India has made a commitment to addressing its carbon emissions

India aims to be a global leader in renewable energy. India’s intention to play a leadership role in the emergent global green economy is driving investment in renewable energy technologies.

Renewable energy represents an area of tremendous opportunity for India

Bibliography 1http://www.unep.org/pdf/UNEP_Profile/Climate_change.pdf

2The 2009 Joint Indo–U.S. Workshop on Climate Change and Health held in Goa

3(Bhattacharya et al. 2006; Dhiman et al. 2008), (Ebi and Paulson 2010; O’Neill and Ebi 2009)

Indian Climactic Disasters Risk Map http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:India_climatic_disaster_risk_map_en.svg#/media/File:India_climatic_disaster_risk_map_en.svg

Temperature Map Of India http://ibnlive.in.com/news/red-hot-temperature-map-of-india/477171-3.html

Dry Spell Ahead http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/narendra-modi-faces-first-challenge-india-drought-year/1/366105.html

Groundwater Stress http://www.wri.org/blog/2015/02/3-maps-explain-india%E2%80%99s-growing-water-risks

Climate Change: Vulnerablility & Adaptation in coastal areas http://envfor.nic.in/sites/default/files/cc/adaptation/coastal.htm

4Emissions Trading http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emissions_trading