climate and transport challenges and opportunity in latina america
DESCRIPTION
By Adriana Lobo. Presented on Day Two of Transforming Transportation. Washington, D.C. January 15, 2010.TRANSCRIPT
Transforming Transportation
Climate and Transport challenges and opportunity in Latina America
Adriana Lobo
Centro de Transporte Sustentable
de México
January 15, 2010
Global antropogenic GHG emissions
Source: IPCC, 2008
World Carbon Emissions: Transport
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
MT
on
nes
CO
2
China non-TransportOECD Non TransportRest of World non TransportLat. Am incl Mexico non transportSea and Aviation BunkersChina TransportOECD Transport ex MexicoRest of World TransportLatin Am incl Mexico Transport
Other energy industries*
7%
Manufacturing industries and construction
35%
Road Transport
17%
Other Transport
7%
Residential. Commercial, Agriculture **
34%
World Carbon Emissions: Transport CO2 Emissions for World in
2006 (total 4.3 tonnes/capita)
CO2 Emissions for LAC in 2006 (total 2.5 tonnes/capita)
Motor Vehicle OwnershipHistorical Trend and Projected Growth
for Selected Countries
Source: Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, World Wide, 1960-2030, Dargay, et al, 2007
Mexico 2008: 24 million vehiclesMexico 2030: 70 million vehicle
Source: MEDEC study, CTS Mexico 2008
Mexico projection of total emission per mode (2009- 2030)
Source: MEDEC study, CTS 2008
The Future for Transport and Emissions
Avoid- Shift- Improve approach:
• Avoiding or reducing the need to travel through improved access to daily needs
• Shifting travel to, or keeping the modal share of the most efficient mode
• Improving existing forms of motorized transport through technological improvements
Sustainable strategy
=Less trips and less distance Higher accecibility to services Higher social equity in mobility Less congestionReduction of C02 from Transport
TRANSPORT EXPENDITURE
DENSE CITIES 5-7 % GDP
DIFFUSE CITIES 15-25 % GDP
LOCAL POLLUTANTS PER INHABITANT
DENSE CITIES 118 Kg.
DIFFUSE CITIES 31 Kg.
¿How to achieve
sustainable mobility?
Mix land use and km travel per capita
Emission of CO2eq per passenger-km
Source: Transport in Developing Countries, International Energy Agency, PEW Center for Global Climate Change
People Mobility
Technology
Opportunities
The Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action Instruments offers an opportunity to levy institutional barriers to support non-regrets policies.
In its structure it must consider enough flexibility as to open the possibility to finance transport policies (modal change, TDM, etc)
Possibility to expand PROTRAM and increase national economic competition by promoting mobility policies.
THANK YOUCentro de Transporte Sustentable
Felipe Carrillo Puerto 54 P.B.,
Col. Villa Coyoacán
México, D.F. C.P. 04000,
tel. (5255) 3096-5742 al 45
http://www.ctsmexico.org