Climate and Change 7

Is this enough evidence that global warming is happening …. if so how bad do people think the

situation is?

2.2 What challenges might our future climate present us with?

• Title: Projections for Global Warming and Sea Level Rise• Learning Objectives:• To understand that future climates are likely to present major

challenges to the UK and especially to people in the developing world.

• To briefly consider the range of projections for global temperature and sea level rise.

• Key vocabulary:• Thermal expansion• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

..for your extra information…

• In 2008, world CO2 concentration passed 380 ppm (parts per million).• In 1800 it was just 280 ppm.• The figure is currently growing by 2 ppm every year, despite sustainable

ideas.• Many of the world’s most knowledgeable climate change scientists belong

to a grouping called the IPCC (see glossary). • They believe that greenhouse gas emissions need to level out below 550

ppm, which they see as a ‘tipping point’ for Earth, beyond which events could spiral out of control.

Below 550 ppm• Global temperature should not exceed 2 ˚C• Could still bring widespread melting of glacier ice• World sea level rise of nearly 1 metre, submerging low-lying areas• Would also be more storms and hurricanes due to warmer sea

temperatures• Globally many species may become extinct• At higher latitudes warmer conditions could encourage tree growth and

greater biodiversity.• ….. Therefore some winners and some losers.Above 550 ppm• Conditions would rapidly worsen.• As ice caps melt, bright white surface is lost (which usually reflects some

sunlight back into space). Without it more energy will be absorbed by the Earth – and temperature will rise even faster. (AN e.g. OF A VICIOUS CIRCLE).

• At worst – a 6˚C rise – Earth could be ice free • Billions of humans would lose their homes (sea level rise) or fresh water• …… Therefore no winners – all losers??????????

What are the projections?• Define thermal expansion – Digby P. 34.

• Watch the following clips, and make notes on any facts/data mentioned on projections of temperature and sea level rise.

• http://www.bbc.co.uk/learningzone/clips/evidence-for-global-warming-polar-ice-cap-evidence/1494.html

• http://www.bbc.co.uk/learningzone/clips/evidence-of-global-warming-in-antarctica/6150.html

• http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7935159.stm

• Then produce a table of recent data & future estimations of global warming and sea level rise using the clips just viewed and Digby P. 34 – 5.

• Complete Digby P. 35 Q 4 and if time Q. 2 & 3• Q4 why is it hard to predict how temperatures might rise with global warming?

Write down 4 reasons.

ProjectionsRecent evidence

Future (best) prediction

Future (worst) prediction

Future (best guess)

Global warming

Sea level rise

Climate and Change 8

2.2 What challenges might our future climate present us with?

• Learning Objectives:

• Key vocabulary:

Percentage of carbon dioxide emissions from different sources in the UK (2006)

Rising temperatures and climate change challenges for the UK

Land that could be lost to potential sea-level rises in Bangladesh

http://geology.com/news/2007/02/climate-change-animation.html

• This is a great animation that shows the temperature changes globally from 1884 - 2006

http://www.teachers.tv/video/24976

• Climate change the causes (13.41)• This richly illustrated programme uses animation and natural history footage to provide an

introduction to the topic of climate change at Key Stage 3/4. • Concepts covered include: naturally occurring greenhouse gases; natural variations in

climate; industrialisation and population growth; use of fossil fuels and carbon dioxide emissions.

• The programme also considers the reasons why climate change can appear to be controversial, looks at how scientists ensure their research is valid, and explains some of the moral and political dilemmas posed by climate change.