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CLEAN ENERGY AND SMART GRID TECHNOLOGY
ISO 9001:2008 CERTIFIED
INNOVATION & LOCALIZATION
OUTLOOK
THE CHALLENGE / THE OPPORTUNITY
Background
• Local Talent Development
• Quality ISO, 6-Sigma
• Sustainability
• Customization
• Local service
• Affordable
• Smart Electric & Water Meters
• PM Generators
• Control CENTER Distribution Automation
• Electronics & Embedded Software
• Communication
• Control platform
• Electro-Mechanics
Technology Clean Energy & Advance
Transportation
Localization Design to
Manufacturing
Emerging Market
Utility Metering Solutions: Smart electric meter (1 & 3 Phase)
Smart water meter systems
PRODUCT FOCUS
Variable Speed PM Generators &
Converters: Small: 10 -150 kW
Medium: 200-600 KW
Large: 650 kW-1 MW
Custom engineering of components and systems. “Expertise in system integration”
End to End Solution
Danotek Motion Technologies - Confidential 5
EV Electric Steering Drives (UK )
Permanent Magnet Generators up to 3 MW
Electronics Power Converters
Clean & Energy Efficient
Transportation System Energy & Generators
CHP generator (USA)
Proven Record for US & EU market
USA
dVentus Ethiopia Engineering & Production
Addis Ababa: Engineering Center => <= HQ & Grid Monitoring
Development Center
Bahir Dar: Electronics & Smart Meter Manufacturing (to be commissioned 1Q 2016)
2 Million Smart Meter Capacity
OUTLOOK
57
5452
90
65
Ethiopia vs United Kingdom
Source: IMF. 2015
Population size, Share of GDP in the world
(2015, million, %)
0.14%
2.35%
Un
ite
d
Kin
gd
om
Share of GDP
Eth
iop
ia
Population
26%
100%
Un
ite
d
Kin
gd
om
E
thio
pia
Access to Electricity
Energy Consumption
Electric per capita consumption, access to electricity
(2015, kWh, % of population)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1506 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
The country as well as the continent has been experiencing a sustainable economic growth for the past 10 years
Source: IMF. 2015
CAGR 9%
ETHIOPIA
740 $
1774 $
GDP per capita (2006- 2015, in PPP USD $)
2,648 $
3,833 $
GDP per capita (2006- 2015, in PPP USD $)
CAGR 4%
AFRICA
4,475 $
CAGR 6%
2030
CAGR 6% CAGR 5%
7,589 $
2,500 MW
8,336 MW
34,035 MW
2015 2018 2030
Demand projection is in line with EEPCo demand planning
Installed power
Ethiopia’s Electricity Generation (2015-2030, in GW)
With this growth rate the demand for electricity and energy is
expected to reach ~34GW by 2030
Growth size – 31GW
2011 2015 2040
World energy outlook
96,000 MW
132,000 MW
385,000 MW
Installed power
Africa’s Electricity Generation (2011-2030, in GW)
Growth size – 290GW
Source: EEPCo; World energy council, 2007
70 GW
The continent has an enormous resource potential specially in
renewable energy
Geothermal 10 GW
Solar 100 MW
Wind 10 GW
Biomass 0.4 GW
Hydro 45 GW
Geothermal 15 GW
Solar 480 MW
Wind 1300 GW
Hydro 283 GW
1.5 TW
THE CHALLENGE
National electrification rate%
Urbanelectrification rate
%
Ruralelectrification rate
%
43%
68%
26%
32%
59%
16%
23%
85%
10%
Ethiopia Sub-Saharan Africa Africa
LOW RATE OF ELECTRICITY ACCESS IN THE RURAL AREAS
CURRENTLY
PROMISING OUTLOOK
1 billion people are projected to
gain access to electricity
Renewables will provide >40% of
power generation capacity
However, 530 million people are
projected to remain without
electricity mainly in rural areas
because of rapid population
growth.
By 2040
OFF-GRID INVESTMENT
OPPORTUNITIES
High Voltage (400KV/120KV)
Load dispatch center (LDC)
High Voltage
Medium Voltage (33KV/15KV)
Low voltage ( 230/380)
Pre-paid meter
Analog meter
Switching Stations
3ɸ
INEFFICIENT DISTRIBUTION Frequent outages
Overload Unbalanced load Poor power quality Poor revenue collection Outdated infrastructure Energy Theft
25-35% Loss
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
Challenges
[mil. $]
Cumulative capacity costs (2011- 2030, in mil. $)
Source: EEPCo Strategic Plan Summary (December 2009), own calculations
65,071
2030
By 2030 Cumulative Investment = $65 Billion USD to reach Capacity
Generation Transmitions Distribution
• Substations • Secondary Substations • Transformers • Distribution lines
Additional
IPP Feed In Tariff Low cost electricity $/KWhr Poor distribution network
POWERING AFRICA Smart Grid Solution
High Voltage (400KV/120KV)
Load dispatch center (LDC)
High Voltage
Medium Voltage (33KV/15KV)
Data
concentrator
with transformer
station systems
Low voltage ( 230/380
Smart meter
Condominiums Villas
DCU meter
Smart meter
Switching Stations
SCADA meter
3ɸ
dVentus Meter Data Management System (dMDMS)
Reduced outage Maintenance Load balancing Load shading Demand side
management Power quality Reduced loss Forecasting Ease of scale up
Accurate billing Pre-Post Pay Theft control Asset
management Better customer
service
dVentus Grid Monitoring System
Smart Metering & Distribution Automation System
dVentus Technologies 19
Replacement & Expansion
Ethiopia: Replacement: 2 Million meters Market: 5 Million meters
Africa: $3 Billion USD Market
12371
58,695
8919
48,306
53,500
27.9%
26.0%
23.6%
21.2%
19.0%
17.9% 17.9% 17.9% 17.8% 17.7%
14.0% 13.0%
11.8%
10.6%
9.5% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 8.9% 8.9%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Po
we
r Lo
ss
Ge
ne
rati
on
, [G
Wh
]
Year
Energy delivery and estimated reduction of losses with Smart metering system 10 years forecast
Generation [GWh]
Sales Net [GWh]
Sales Net with SM [GWh]
Estimate Loss [%]
Estimate Loss with SM
Source: Simulation based on Parsons Brinkerhoff’s EEPCo master plan 2013
10% -15%
Business Case for Smart Meters
Payback period 4.2
IRR 58.7%
Increased earning over 10 years
$ 667.7 M
Entry Point
• Project Financing
• Investment (private equity)
• Partnership
• Corporate Establishment
Don’t wait too long!
Not needed
Thank YOU
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
1) Actual according to EEPCo Strategic Plan Summary (December 2009) Source: EEPCo Strategic Plan Summary (December 2009); IMF World Economic Outlook Database (April 2010); Center for Strategy and Leadership: Export Opportunities for Ethiopian Wind Turbines (2009), based on UN data, CIA World Factbook; NEFAS calculations on basis of GDP forecast and increase of electricity demand over time to 250 Wh per 1$ of GDP PPP
[GWh]
Electricity demand – EEPCo supply and GIZ demand projection 2011 - 2018 (in GWh)
Gibe IV 1,472 MW
Gibe III 1,870 MW
~ 50% of supply increase
depends on only two projects in
Gibe which have experienced
long delays in the past
Supply planning
Delayed supply scenario2)
Demand projection
Opportunity costs: 8,823 mil. US$1)
Opportunity costs: 236 mil. US$1)
Demand increases to 28,9 TWh
until 2018
Average capacity factor
improves from 28% today to
43% in 2018
Additional capacity requirement
until 2018 is 6,836 MW
Supply assumptions
Supply gaps have occurred and will continue to occur due to failure to
make the required investment