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September 13, 2013
FINAL REPORT
CITY OF CHILLIWACK ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS
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PO
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Report Number: 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 Distribution:
1 Copy - City of Chilliwack (Electronic)
2 Copies - Golder Associates Ltd.
Submitted to:City of Chilliwack 8550 Young Road Chilliwack, BC V8P 8A4
CITY OF CHILLIWACK ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS
September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 i
Executive Summary
As part of its Official Community Planning process, the City is conducting a series of background studies. One
of the studies is an Economic Development Prospects and Employment Study, which is considered key to better
understanding future growth and development requirements. This study was funded by the City of Chilliwack in
partnership with the Chilliwack Economic Partners Corporation (CEPCO) and was completed by the Sustainable
Communities Group of Golder Associates in association with Lions Gate Consulting. We obtained input from the
local community on economic prospects for Chilliwack in four different ways:
Key informant interviews with 12 community members;
A stakeholder workshop with 24 participants help on November 15, 2012;
A series of three focus groups with 23 participants on November 19, 2012; and
A community business survey, completed by 240 firms.
Analysis of Key Socio-Economic and Industry Information
Population – Over the 15 year period from 1996 to 2011, the population in the City of Chilliwack increased 26%
from 62,466 to 78,8981. This was significantly higher than Provincial population growth over the same period
(18%) and similar to the Fraser Valley Regional District (FVRD), which grew 27%.
Employment – In 2006, the largest labour force categories included retail, manufacturing, construction and
health services. From 1991 to 2006, Chilliwack experienced a steep decline in public administration employment,
as well as losses in primary industries, including agriculture, fishery, forestry and mining. Other services,
manufacturing, finance, insurance and real estate, health services, and educational services have all shown
strong growth, outpacing growth experienced in Metro Vancouver and the province. The Chilliwack labour force
as a percentage of the total population declined from 47% to 44% from 2001 to 2006. By comparison, the BC
labour force increased from 46% to 52% over the same period.
In 2011 the unemployment rate in Chilliwack was the same as the province at about 5% and well below the
Abbotsford-Mission rate of 9%.
Incomes – The median Chilliwack income in 2009 was $28,120, which was 4% lower than the BC median
income of $29,405. Household incomes in Chilliwack are about $64,000, which is about 12% below the
provincial average of $72,600. Household incomes have increased at the rate of 2.2% per year. Chilliwack
experienced a 77% increase in incomes from 2001 to 2009, slightly higher than income growth in the Fraser
Valley Regional District or the provinces as a whole. The percentage of low income families in Chilliwack is 10%
compared with 13% for BC. The number of people on income assistance in Chilliwack is increasing. It rose by
over 40% from July 2008 to July 2012 (this compares with 35% for the Fraser Valley Region). It rose quickly
during the recession and has since tapered off although there continues to be a net increase each year.
1 BC Statistics figures. The 2011 federal census population was slightly lower at 77,898. The census figures exclude the first nations reserve population of about 4.300. The City of Chilliwack estimates the population of Chilliwack to be 82,463, which includes the first nation’s population.
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Business Licences – In 2011, the City issued 3,652 licences, 48% of which were for home-based businesses. Another 41% were for commercial businesses and the remaining 11% industrial businesses.
Office Development Costs – In a recent survey of office development costs in the Lower Mainland published by the Metro Vancouver Chapter of the NAIOP Commercial Real Estate Development Association (NAIOP) Chilliwack scored sixth overall on the costs of developing a theoretical commercial building valued at $7.8 million. Chilliwack ranked first in terms of the commercial to residential tax ratio and development approval times. The total value of building permit fees declined from about $200,000 to $100,000 between 2006 and 2011, but this did not account for activity related to the Eagle Landing Shopping Centre.
Housing Demand – As the population grows in Chilliwack the mix of housing is gradually shifting from acreages
to single family homes and from single family homes to multifamily homes. Constrained by geography and the
agricultural land reserve, the only avenue is increased density of housing. It is no surprise that the biggest
growth category in the past ten years is townhouses and apartments. While the largest dwelling type is still the
single family home, a growing number of them now have secondary suites. This increased density has also
coincided with rising house prices. Property assessments have tripled over the last ten years. The residential
sector accounts for over 80% of that while the business sector represents 15%.
Economic Development Trends
Globally, the economy seems to be recovering slowly from the recent global financial crisis although the situation
is very fragile in both Europe, where a number of countries are close to bankruptcy, and the United States where
extremely high levels of debt pose very significant challenges to our neighbour and largest trading partner.
Some researchers and analysts are suggesting that high levels of debt at the personal, corporate and
government levels are helping to make the economy appear to be better than it actually is.
Provincially, the BC economy and its neighbours to the east are outpacing eastern Canada, boosted by a surge
in mining and oil and gas activity due to high mineral commodity prices and new technology to exploit natural
gas reserves. The employment losses that occurred in the recession have now been fully recouped and BC
employment levels increased 2.2% in 2011. These figures were boosted by construction employment. In the
near future, transportation and warehouse jobs are predicted to increase as BC, and the lower mainland
becomes a more central hub for trade with Asia.
Employment in accommodation and food services is expected to decline slightly due to a week environment for
tourism and reduced consumer spending. Public sector employment is also expected to decline as the federal
and provincial governments try to cut spending.
More locally, the primary economic activities in the Fraser Valley Regional District include agriculture, forestry
and manufacturing. The Farms provide products to the larger population centres in the region and for exports
outside the region. There are a large number of wood manufacturing firms. The Annual Allowable Cut has
remained constant for many years. Because of lower land prices, the region has attracted industrial and
warehouse operations. The increase in the number of new housing units has helped boost the construction
industry.
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Local Economy SWOT Analysis
We conducted a local economy Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis to help
identify the community’s economic assets and gaps and how they might, or might not appeal, to the location
decisions being made by business. The SWOT was compiled based on the literature review and interviews with
key informants, with a focus on sustainable strengths, correctable weaknesses and realistic, developable
opportunities. A summary of SWOT elements is presented in Figure 4-1.
Economic Projections
Population – Chilliwack expects an increase of 50,919 new residents over the next 29 years based on
projections made by the City. This represents growth of 62% or an annual growth rate of 1.7%.
By 2041, Chilliwack’s population will have grown at a faster pace than other jurisdictions, including the FVRD,
which is expected to increase by 60%. Metro Vancouver’s projected growth of 41% would result in a gradual and
continuing shift in the Lower Mainland’s population centre eastward, bringing Chilliwack closer to the office,
industrial and trade core of the region. Growth rates in the other jurisdictions are projected to be lower, including
BC (60%), Canada (46%), the US (34%) and the world population at 28%.
Age – The ageing trend that has characterized Chilliwack’s population over the last two decades is expected to
continue for the foreseeable future. By 2036, 22% of the population will be over the age of 65 years compared
with 17% today. Conversely, 17% of the population will be under the age of 14, versus 18% today. However that
ageing trend may stabilize and possibly reverse between 2021 and 2036, in comparison with the province. This
means that, starting in about 10 years, the City will become progressively younger than the BC population.
Land Requirements – Chilliwack has 12 hectares of commercial land available but has projected demand of
113 hectares by 2036. This means that Chilliwack will run out of commercial land within two years if current
levels of land use intensity continue. A similar pattern is occurring with industrial land. There are 76 hectares of
industrial land available in Chilliwack but the projected demand is for 162 hectares, which means that Chilliwack
will run out of Industrial land in 12 years. This means that Chilliwack will need to significantly increase its land
use intensity and to work with First Nations to accommodate some of that density on First Nations land.
Economic Prospects
Economic Vision Statement – The following economic vision statement for the City of Chilliwack was
developed based on vision statements suggest by participants at the Economic Prospects workshop. It
considers the planning direction for CEPCO and addresses development and land use, employment and
business climate, the environment and community. It also draws heavily on the vision statements crafted by
participants at the stakeholder workshop on November 15th. The statement reads as follows:
“Chilliwack is a healthy, safe, prosperous, complete, and diverse community that cares for its citizens
and the environment and has a strong mix of amenities, services, recreation opportunities and natural
assets to attract and retain businesses that create well-paying jobs in manufacturing, tourism,
agriculture, and other sectors through ongoing skills training and applied technology.”
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Economic Goals – Based on the baseline economic information we compiled and the feedback we received
from the workshops, focus groups, interviews and business survey, we grouped the key themes into eight high
level goals for Chilliwack. The backdrop for these goals is that the City is about to become one of the fastest
growing municipalities in Canada.
BUSINESS
1) Position and promote Chilliwack as the Lower Mainland’s sustainable business community.
a. Create a community-wide brand identity.
b. Promote Chilliwack as a destination for businesses, visitors, and new residents.
2) Enhance and expand Chilliwack’s business and investment climate.
a. Strengthen the local business climate.
b. Support the retention and expansion of businesses in the City.
c. Support the attraction of new businesses and residents to the community.
PLACE
3) Continue to revitalize the downtown core.
a. Encourage redevelopment that will attract anchor tenants and new residents.
b. Make the downtown a centre for civic activity that attracts residents and tourists.
c. Encourage downtown residents to share resources and collaborate.
4) Increase employment intensity on commercial and industrial land.
a. Increase the number of jobs per unit of commercial land and/or increase the density of new
commercial development.
b. Intensify existing commercial lands.
c. Increase the number of jobs per unit of industrial land.
PEOPLE
5) Contribute to a learning economy through workforce development.
a. Assist in developing and delivering training and education programs.
b. Create a learning community.
6) Create economic participation opportunities for disadvantaged residents.
a. Assist in developing and delivering training and entrepreneurship programs.
b. Better integrate youth into the workforce and community life.
SUSTAINABILITY
7) Improve transportation infrastructure for employees and visitors.
a. Improve employee commuting options.
b. Improve transportation infrastructure for visitors.
c. Improve road infrastructure for commercial vehicles.
8) Become a model community in advancing the green economy.
a. Encourage environmentally responsible business activities.
b. Promote green business activities.
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September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 vi
Table of Contents
1.0 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................................... 1
2.0 ANALYSIS OF KEY SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY INFO ................................................................................... 2
2.1 Demographic Profile ............................................................................................................................................ 2
2.2 Labour Force Characteristics ............................................................................................................................... 2
2.3 Personal Income .................................................................................................................................................. 4
2.4 Business Licences ............................................................................................................................................... 7
2.5 Office Development Costs ................................................................................................................................... 8
2.6 Housing Demand ................................................................................................................................................. 9
2.7 Land Use ........................................................................................................................................................... 11
2.8 Employment by Sector ....................................................................................................................................... 12
3.0 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT TRENDS......................................................................................................................... 14
3.1 Key Global Driving Forces that may Impact Chilliwack ...................................................................................... 14
4.0 RESULTS OF LOCAL ECONOMY SWOT ANALYSIS .................................................................................................. 16
4.1 Strengths ........................................................................................................................................................... 18
4.2 Weaknesses ...................................................................................................................................................... 19
4.3 Opportunities ..................................................................................................................................................... 20
4.4 Threats .............................................................................................................................................................. 21
5.0 STAKEHOLDER INPUT ................................................................................................................................................. 23
5.1 Stakeholder Workshop ...................................................................................................................................... 23
5.1.1 Key Economics Strategies ........................................................................................................................... 24
5.1.2 Economic Vision Statement ......................................................................................................................... 25
5.2 Focus Group Sessions ...................................................................................................................................... 26
5.2.1 Manufacturing Sector ................................................................................................................................... 26
5.2.2 Agriculture Sector ........................................................................................................................................ 27
5.2.3 Tourism Sector ............................................................................................................................................. 28
5.3 Business Community Survey ............................................................................................................................. 29
6.0 ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS .......................................................................................................................................... 47
6.1 Population .......................................................................................................................................................... 47
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September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 vii
6.2 Population Age .................................................................................................................................................. 49
6.3 Other Growth Indicators ..................................................................................................................................... 49
6.4 Employment Land Requirements ...................................................................................................................... 50
6.5 Future Challenges ............................................................................................................................................. 51
7.0 ECONOMIC PROSPECTS ............................................................................................................................................. 53
7.1 Vision Statement................................................................................................................................................ 53
7.2 Goals ................................................................................................................................................................. 54
7.3 Objectives and Supporting Actions .................................................................................................................... 55
8.0 CLOSURE ....................................................................................................................................................................... 78
TABLES
Table 2-1: Population for Fraser Valley Regional District Communities and British Columbia, 1996 to 2011 ............................ 2
Table 2-2: Experienced Labour Force City of Chilliwack, GVRD and BC, 1991 to 2006 ............................................................ 3
Table 2-3: Total Chilliwack and BC Tax Filers, Total Income and Median Income, 2009 ........................................................... 5
Table 2-4: Chilliwack Ranking in Development Process Metrics, 2012 ...................................................................................... 8
Table 2-6: Current and Projected Employment ........................................................................................................................ 13
Table 6-1: Chilliwack and BC Age Characteristics, 2001 to 2036 ............................................................................................ 49
Table 6-2: Change in Key Chilliwack Indicators, 2011 to 2041 ................................................................................................ 49
Table 6-3: Current and Projected Employment ........................................................................................................................ 50
Table 6-4: Commercial and Industrial Current and Projected Land Requirements .................................................................. 51
Table A-1: Industrial Establishments by Major Industrial Group, 1992 and 2011
Table A-2: Commercial Establishments by Major Industrial Group
Table A-3: Industrial Floor Space (m2) by Major Industrial Group
Table A-4: Commercial Floor Space (m2) by Major Industrial
Table A-5: Industrial and Commercial Land by Neighbourhood, 2012
FIGURES
Figure 2-1: Abbotsford-Mission, Chilliwack, BC Unemployment Rate, 2002 to 2011 ................................................................. 4
Figure 2-2: Change in Total Personal Income for Chilliwack, Fraser Valley RD and BC, 2001 to 2009. .................................... 5
Figure 2-3: Chilliwack and BC Personal Income Ranges, 2009. ................................................................................................ 6
Figure 2-4: Number of Business Establishments by Major Industry, 1992 to 2011. ................................................................... 8
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September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 viii
Figure 2-5: Value in building permits per year 2005 – 2011. ...................................................................................................... 9
Figure 2-6: Industrial and Commercial Floor Space (m2), 1992 to 2011. .................................................................................. 11
Figure 2-7: Industrial and Commercial Area (ha.) by Sub-Area, 1992 to 2011. ........................................................................ 12
Figure 4-1: Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats Overview. ............................................................................. 17
Figure 6-1: Forecast growth in population between 2011 to 2041. .......................................................................................... 47
Figure 6-2: Population Forecasts for the City of Chilliwack, 2011 to 2041. .............................................................................. 48
Figure 6-3: Components of forecasted population change for the City of Chilliwack, 2011 to 2036. ........................................ 48
Figure B-1: Agricultural Employment
Figure B-2: Industrial Employment
Figure B-3: Commercial Employment
Figure B-4: Institutional Employment
Figure B-5: Total Employment
Figure D-1: Scenario Planning Model
APPENDICES
APPENDIX A Business License Data Tables
APPENDIX B Spatial Allocation of Employment by Broad Sector
APPENDIX C Key List of Informants
APPENDIX D Results of Future Scenarios
APPENDIX E Economic Projection Tables
CITY OF CHILLIWACK ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS
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1.0 INTRODUCTION As part of its Official Community Planning process, the City is conducting a series of background studies. One
of the studies is an Economic Development Prospects and Employment Study, which is considered key to better
understanding future growth and development requirements. This study was funded by the City of Chilliwack in
partnership with the Chilliwack Economic Partners Corporation (CEPCO) and was completed by the Sustainable
Communities Group of Golder Associates in association with Lions Gate Consulting.
The primary objectives of study are to:
Document the current economic base of Chilliwack;
Describe key past and current macro-economic trends;
Present and summarise opinions about the economy by knowledgeable community representatives;
Identify and analyse land use patterns and requirements pertaining to future economic prospects;
Identify short and long-term needs of Chilliwack; and
Present a SWOT analysis of the Chilliwack economy.
We obtained input from the local community on economic prospects for Chilliwack in four different ways:
Key informant interviews with 12 community members;
A stakeholder workshop with 24 participants held on November 15th, 2012;
A series of three focus groups with 23 participants on November 19th, 2012; and
A community business survey, completed by 240 firms.
As part of the stakeholder workshop, we conducted an alternative futures scenarios exercise, in which the
participants consider the implications of four alternative futures and then developed strategic responses.
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September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 2
2.0 ANALYSIS OF KEY SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY INFO
2.1 Demographic Profile Over the 15 year period from 1996 to 2011, the population in the City of Chilliwack increased 26% from 62,466
to 78,898. This was significantly higher than Provincial population growth over the same period (18%), similar to
Abbotsford and the Fraser Valley Regional District (FVRD), which grew 27% and 24% respectively, and less
than Harrison Hot Springs (72%).
Table 2-1: Population for Fraser Valley Regional District Communities and British Columbia, 1996 to 20112
Area Type 1996 2001 2006 2011 % Change
(1996 – 2011)
Abbotsford C 109,539 122,825 129,345 139,343 27%
Chilliwack C 62,466 65,228 71,298 78,9003 26%
Harrison Hot Springs VL 930 1,344 1,578 1,597 72%
Hope DM 6,467 6,257 6,243 6,201 -4%
Kent DM 5,040 5,137 5,318 5,535 10%
Mission DM 31,684 32,441 35,741 37,372 18%
Unincorporated Areas RDR 14,852 15,817 17,204 18,035 21%
Fraser Valley RD 230,978 249,049 266,727 286,981 24%
British Columbia 3,874,317 4,076,264 4,243,580 4,573,321 18% Notes: C City; VL Village; DM District Municipality; RDR Regional District Remainder; RD Regional District
2.2 Labour Force Characteristics The experienced labour force for the City of Chilliwack, GVRD, and BC between 1991 and 2006 is summarized
by industry in Table 2-2. In 2006, the largest labour force categories included retail, manufacturing, construction
and health services. During this time, Chilliwack experienced a steep decline in public administration
employment, as well as losses in primary industries, including agriculture, fishery, forestry and mining. Other
services, manufacturing, finance, insurance and real estate, health services, and educational services have all
shown strong growth, outpacing growth experienced in Metro Vancouver (GVRD) and the province.
The Chilliwack labour force as a percentage of the total population declined from 47% to 44% from 2001 to
2006. By comparison, the BC labour force increased from 46% to 52% over the same period.4
Labour force data for the 2011 Census has yet to be released by Statistics Canada and is therefore not available
to determine how labour force activity has changed since 2006.
2 Source: BC Stats (2009) (2011). 3 The census population estimate is less than actual population due to undercounts and incomplete enumeration of First Nations’ on-reserve populations. 4 Source: Statistics Canada (2001) (2006).
CITY OF CHILLIWACK ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS
September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 3
Table 2-2: Experienced Labour Force City of Chilliwack, GVRD and BC, 1991 to 20065
1991 1996 2006
Change 1991 to 2006 (% Change)
Chilliwack GVRD BC Chilliwack GVRD BC Chilliwack GVRD BC Chilliwack GVRD BC
Agriculture, Fish, Forestry, and Mining
2,385 19,835 110,020 2355 19,870 109,040 2,210 18,270 96,505 -7.3% -7.9% -12.3%
Manufacturing 1,940 94,435 193,525 2,125 99,070 198,235 3,480 97800 189,120 79.4% 3.6% -2.3%
Construction 2,065 61,280 129,295 2,540 67,560 142,160 3,590 73385 166,100 73.8% 19.8% 28.5%
Wholesale 820 50,925 79,725 1,165 59,975 91,915 1,275 61,655 92,020 55.5% 21.1% 15.4%
Retail 3,480 108,340 223,730 4,020 115,810 238,420 4,295 124,960 248,955 23.4% 15.3% 11.3%
Transportation, Storage, Communication and Utilities
1,415 76,895 141,550 1615 80,515 142,300 1,625 71,300 126,165 14.8% -7.3% -10.9%
Finance, Insurance and Real Estate
920 64,575 100,155 1210 71,405 109,975 1,670 85,215 134,940 81.5% 32.0% 34.7%
Education 1,510 53,430 111,420 1,775 66,440 130,980 2,560 83,200 152,565 69.5% 55.7% 36.9%
Health Services 1,860 73,435 148,230 2,920 89,730 180,245 3,240 107,065 213,090 74.2% 45.8% 43.8%
Accommodation and Food 2,020 64,570 139,080 2,180 76,845 160,830 2,350 91,585 180,060 16.3% 41.8% 29.5%
Other Services 2,380 139,145 231,375 3115 174,755 288,990 6,135 291,915 483,005 157.8% 109.8% 108.8%
Public Administration 3,210 42,810 113,575 3,125 41,920 111,420 2,325 44,115 110,585 -27.6% 3.0% -2.6%
Total 24,005 849,675 1,721,680 28,145 963,895 1,904,510 34,755 1,150,465 2,193,110 44.8% 35.4% 27.4%
5 Source: Statistics Canada (1991) (1996) (2006).
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Figure 2-1 shows the unemployment for Abbotsford-Mission, Chilliwack and BC between 2002 and 2011. The
rate in all areas was below 8% between 2003 and 2008, with the bottom reach in 2007—in that year Chilliwack
had an unemployment rate of less than 4%. The recession of 2008-2009 caused a spike in unemployment that
affected the entire North American economy, including Chilliwack, which increased to almost 10% in 2009. In
2011 the unemployment rate in Chilliwack was about 5%, well below the Abbotsford-Mission rate of 9% and
below the BC rate of close to seven percent.6 The largest unemployed groups are aged 15 to 19.
Figure 2-1: Abbotsford-Mission, Chilliwack, BC Unemployment Rate, 2002 to 20117
Note: Includes City of Chilliwack, Kent District Municipality, and Fraser Valley Electoral Area E
2.3 Personal Income Table 2-3 highlights the total number of tax filers, total personal income and median income for women and men
in 2009 for both Chilliwack and the entire province. In 2009, a total of 58,380 tax filers earned income of
$2.15 billion in Chilliwack. The median Chilliwack income in 2009 was $28,120, which was 4% lower than the
BC median income of $29,405. Median incomes for men and women varied considerably with men earning
$37,160 annually, while women earned $21,840 in Chilliwack. Median incomes for men were higher than those
observed at the provincial level while women lagged the median income generally earned at the provincial level.
Household incomes in Chilliwack are about $64,000, about 12% below the provincial average of $72,600.
Household incomes have increased at the rate of 2.2% per year. While household incomes in Chilliwack are
below the provincial average, residents enjoy disposable incomes that are higher than the provincial average
because the average cost of a single family home is 30% lower than neighbouring Abbotsford, over 60% less
than the average home in Greater Vancouver, and 28% less than the average home in British Columbia (BC
Real Estate Foundation, October 2012. Housing Forecast)
6 Chilliwack’s low rate was attributable to primarily due to the construction and opening of the Eagle Landing Shopping Centre. Abbotsford’s rate is expected to drop sharply due to the pending development of the Wal-Mart Shopping Centre. 7 Source: BC Stats (2012d).
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Uenemploym
ent Rate
Year
Abbotsford‐Mission Chilliwack BC
CITY OF CHILLIWACK ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS
September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 5
Table 2-3: Total Chilliwack and BC Tax Filers, Total Income and Median Income, 20098
Chilliwack British Columbia
Number of Tax filers (#) with Income
Male 28,050 1,541,130
Female 30,330 1,652,910
Total 58,380 3,195,820
Total Income ($ Million)
Male $1,273 $77,389
Female $877 $54,710
Total $2,151 $132,099
Median Tax filer Income
Male $37,160 $36,455
Female $21,840 $24,025
Total $28,120 $29,405
Figure 2-2 outlines the change in total personal incomes for the City of Chilliwack between 2001 and 2009. Total
personal income is then compared to the percentage change in total personal income at the provincial level.
Total personal income has risen from $1.24 billion in 2001 to $2.15 billion in 2009, an increase of 73% over the
period. This increase has outpaced the change in income growth experienced at the Fraser Valley Regional
District and provincial level. Total personal incomes experienced particularly strong growth over the period from
2003 to 2007. Between 2008 and 2009, the Fraser Valley Regional District and the province both experienced a
decline in total income, while Chilliwack narrowly avoided a decline posting a small increase in total income.
Chilliwack Total Personal Income % Change in Total Income (2001=100%)
Figure 2-2: Change in Total Personal Income for Chilliwack, Fraser Valley RD and BC, 2001 to 2009.9
8 Source: BC Stats (2011c).
$1,244
$2,158
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
$2,200
$2,400
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
$ M
illio
ns
Year
173%153%
149%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
170%
180%
Per
cen
t C
han
ge
Year
Chilliwack Fraser Valley RD
British Columbia
CITY OF CHILLIWACK ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS
September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 6
As illustrated in Figure 2-3 in 2009, Chilliwack closely matched the range of incomes experienced at the
provincial level. While a slightly smaller share of Chilliwack residents earned less than $15,000 per year than
observed at the provincial level, a slightly smaller share of Chilliwack residents earned $50,000 or more than
observed at the provincial level. In 2009, 30% of Chilliwack residents earned between $25,000 and $50,000 in
2009 compared with 28% at the provincial level. The number of people on income assistance in Chilliwack is
increasing. In the Hope and Chilliwack subdivision it rose by over 40% from July 2008 to July 2012, compared to
a 35% increase for the Fraser Valley as a whole)10. This is believed attributable to the lingering effects of the
2008-2009 recession.
Chilliwack
British Columbia
Figure 2-3: Chilliwack and BC Personal Income Ranges, 2009.11
Income inequality
The disparity of incomes between the poorest 20% of the population and the wealthiest 20% is rising in Canada (it increased by 20% from 1981 to 2010). This same trend is occurring in BC, which is now the most income unequal of all the Canadian provinces. This is cause for concern because many social problems (e.g., drug abuse, certain types of crime, infant mortality, etc.) have been shown to correlate very positively with income inequality (Wilkinson, 2009).
A common statistic that is used to calculate the level of income inequality is the GINI coefficient, where a coefficient of zero indicates perfect equality while a coefficient of 1 indicates maximum inequality (where one person accounts for 100% of the incomes). Among OECD countries the GINI coefficient ranges from .25 to .5. The GINI coefficient for Canada is .39, making it 24th among the 35 OECD countries. The following statistics suggest that Chilliwack has a slightly lower level of income inequality than BC:
9 Source: BC Stats (2004a, 2004b, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009b, 2010b, 2011c). 10 Data provided by Robert Bruce, Executive Director, Ministry of Social Development, January, 2013
11 Source: BC Stats ( 2011c).
$15k or less28%
$15k to $25K19%
$25k to $40k20%
$40k to $50k10%
$50k+23% $15k
or less30%
$15k to $25K16%
$25k to $40k18%
$40k to $50k10%
$50k+26%
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Percentage of low income families: 9.9% (Chilliwack) vs. 13.3% (BC)12.
Percentage of low income male lone-parent families: 15% (Chilliwack) vs. 13.9% (BC)9.
Percentage of low income female lone-parent families: 24.1% (Chilliwack) vs. 25.6% (BC)9.
Percentage of low income seniors (65+) 12.6% (Chilliwack) vs. 14.7% (BC)9.
2.4 Business Licences The City of Chilliwack tracks the number of establishments through its business licence records. In 2011, 48% of
the total 3,652 licences were for home-based businesses. Another 41% were for commercial businesses and the
remaining 11% industrial businesses (City of Chilliwack 2012d).
The change in the number of industrial and commercial establishments in Chilliwack in 1992 and 2011 is
presented in Appendix A, Table A-1 and A-2. A summary by major industry is shown in Tables A-3, A-4 and A-5.
Observations about these data include the following:
Between 1992 and 2011, the cumulative number of industry establishments grew 3.3%, with construction
and some manufacturing industries leading the way. The primary sectors, including agriculture, forestry and
mining, as well as utilities, either declined or grew only marginally. The traditional primary sectors, even
though they account for key segments of the economic and job base, have never represented a significant
share of locations or establishments.
Manufacturing is a diverse industry sector with some segments growing while others are contracting. Metal,
machining and wood establishments are growing at above-average rates.
The growth in services establishments averaged 1.7% between 1992 and 2011, led by financial services,
membership organizations, retail, education and business services. The number of core services
establishments such as banks, furniture stores and real estate services either declined or grew marginally
between 1992 and 2011. However, the average size of establishment, in terms of floor space and
employment, appears to have increased due to the influx of large-format stores and supercentres.
Commercial establishments outnumber industrial establishments by a wide margin due to their smaller
average size as measured by employment and floor space. However, the share of industrial establishments
grew from about 12% of the total in 1992 to 16% in 2011. This indicates a continuing area of growth in
establishments engaged in goods producing activities.
12 Source: (BC Stats, 2006).
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Figure 2-4: Number of Business Establishments by Major Industry, 1992 to 2011.13
2.5 Office Development Costs The Metro Vancouver Chapter of the NAIOP Commercial Real Estate Development Association (NAIOP) recently published its latest annual survey of office development costs in the Lower Mainland. The results indicate that Chilliwack scores sixth out of 20 communities on the costs of developing a theoretical commercial building valued at $7.8 million. Chilliwack ranked first in terms of the commercial to residential tax ratio and development approval times.
Table 2-4: Chilliwack Ranking in Development Process Metrics, 201214
Category TOL Rank in MV (out of 20)
Subdivision permit $720 1
Building permit $54,517 9
DCC Charges $182,720 9
Water Hook-up Fees $80 5
Sewer Hook-up Fees $160 6
Development permit fees $581 4
Commercial Property Taxes $73,711 9
Business to Industrial Tax Ratio 2.12 1
Time Required to Complete Development Permitting* (days) 30-90 1
Overall Municipal Fee Rank - 6
Note: * Based on $7.8 million of building and site improvements without land cost.
13 Source: City of Chilliwack (2012d). 14 Source: NAIOP (2012).
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The total value of building permits declined by 50%, from about $200 million to $100 million between 2006 and
2011, as shown in Figure 2-5. This compares with a drop of 25% and 26% for the Fraser Valley and BC,
respectively for the same period (Fraser Valley Community Facts sheet printed August 2012). However, the data
do not include activity on First Nations’ reserve lands, including the Eagle Landing Shopping Centre, which
would have placed the Chilliwack area in a much improved position during the 2009 to 2010 period.
Figure 2-5: Value in building permits per year 2005 – 2011.15
Note: Does not include activity on First Nations reserve lands. If the Eagle Landing Shopping Centre development is included in the estimates, then 2009 and 2010 building permit totals would have been near or exceeded historic highs.
2.6 Housing Demand As the population grows in Chilliwack the mix of housing is gradually shifting from acreages to single family
homes and from single family homes to townhomes and multifamily homes. Constrained by geography and the
agricultural land reserve, the only avenue is increased density of housing. It is no surprise that the biggest
growth category in the past ten years is duplexes, townhomes and apartments. While the largest dwelling type
is still the single family home, a growing number of them now have secondary suites.
This increased density has also coincided with rising house prices. Property assessments have tripled over the
last ten years. The residential sector accounts for over 80% of that while the business sector represents 15%
(Van Wyk and Van Wyk, 2011).
15 Source: BC Stats 2012e.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
$000
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Affordable Housing
In terms of affordable housing, Chilliwack is doing better than the Fraser Valley Regional District as a whole. Of
275 applicants for affordable housing in the District (through the BC housing program), only 16% are from
Chilliwack while Chilliwack represents 30% of the population of the District (Van Wyk and Van Wyk, 2011). The
City has approved an Affordable Housing Strategy and a group of local business people have established a
Housing Foundation and an Affordable Housing Reserve Fund. The city is encouraging in a number of tangible
ways, including:
Creating a supportive housing policy.
Establishing a development cost charge (DCC) exemptions for eligible projects bylaw, which has been
applied to a 33 unit supportive housing project.
Approving a new zone to support small-unit, affordable apartment projects.
Supporting the development of a zoning amendment to allow secondary suites and coach houses as part of
the rental stock.
Making a $500,000 contribution towards the development of the (future) Chilliwack Housing and Health
Contact Centre.
About 75% of the residential units in Chilliwack are owned vs. rented, which is slightly lower than the average
municipality in the lower mainland (metro Vancouver and Fraser Valley combined). The average monthly rental
cost in Chilliwack is highest among the 5 major communities in the FVRD albeit by a very small amount. About
11% of households in Chilliwack are in core need of housing, which means that they cannot afford suitable and
adequate housing. This compares with 13% for the FVRD as a whole.
Homelessness in the FVRD increased 13% from 2004 to 2008. About 21% of known homeless persons in the
FVRD were in the City of Chilliwack, indicating that homelessness is a bigger concern in other cities like
Abbotsford. The following housing needs have been identified for Chilliwack:
Clean, safe, and affordable housing for people on disability incomes, women and children fleeing abusive
relationships, and households paying more than 50% of the incomes on rent.
Transitional and supportive housing for people with mental health issues and addictions.
Outreach services for released offenders and inmates serving in community corrections.
Permanent independent housing with adequate supporting housing for those who cannot be housed
without supportive housing.
Detoxification beds for youth.
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2.7 Land Use The floor space used by major industry in Chilliwack between 1992 and 2011 is presented in Figure 2-6. Unlike
the business establishment data presented above, which showed most of business licences to be in the retail
and service sectors, land use is much more evenly distributed between goods producing and service producing
activities. Overall, industrial businesses accounted for 37% of all floor space in the City in 2011, versus 35% in
1992. Commercial businesses accounted for the 63% of floor space, a slight decline from 65% in 1992.
Manufacturing, services and trade floor space all grew at around 3% per annum between 1992 and 2011, while
financial, real estate and leasing services lagged at 2.3%. Construction grew more rapidly at 5%, while
transportation expanded the most at 5.8%.
The labour force data presented in Table 2-2 shows that between 1991 and 2006, transportation employment
was among the slowest growing of all major industries, trailed only by primary production (i.e., agriculture,
logging and mining) and the public sector. Assuming that the 2013 release of labour force data from the 2011
Census shows a continuing trend to low employment growth in transportation in the City, the land use data
would appear to reflect two adverse trends. The first is growing demand for transportation and warehousing
space that has relatively low employment per work space ratios, and below-average employment growth in
transportation occupations. While construction employment has been more robust, it also has not kept pace with
the increase in demand for construction-related land in the City.
Both these trends have obvious implications for future community job creation objectives in that demand for land
is occurring in sectors that may not necessarily deliver on job opportunities.
Figure 2-6: Industrial and Commercial Floor Space (m2), 1992 to 2011.16
16 Source: City of Chilliwack (2012d).
1992 2000 2005 2007 2011
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The location of industrial and commercial land by Chilliwack sub-area in 2012 is shown in Figure 2-7. Village
West accounts for 31% of all commercial and industrial land, followed by Chilliwack Proper (27%),
Greendale-Cattermole-Yarrow (21%) and Sardis-Vedder (18%). Almost all the industrial land is situated in
Village West and Greendale-Cattermole-Yarrow, whereas Chilliwack Proper and Sardis-Vedder dominate
commercial and shopping space.
Figure 2-7: Industrial and Commercial Area (ha.) by Sub-Area, 1992 to 2011.17
2.8 Employment by Sector Using City-provided data such as business licenses or parcels with BC Assessment actual use codes, we
mapped economic activity by the number of jobs. To derive employment by sector, we first obtained estimates of
total employment from City staff. We then separated this total into sectors (based on two digit NAICS codes)
using Statistics Canada’s Business Registry, and finally, calibrated sector totals using known Fraser Valley and
Abbotsford totals. To spatially allocate employment, we combined assessment data with city business licenses
and BC assessment data, and mapped them to the two digit NAICS codes. The twelve major categories were
then further broken down into four larger categories to use for cartographic purposes. Depending on the
category, we used either value of improvements, value of land and improvements, or floor areas to create
multipliers to establish specific employment totals for each business license or BC Parcel. Table 2-6 summarizes
methods for employment estimation and employment totals by category. Additional verification was completed
through calibration for both the population and agriculture Censes of Canada (2006, 2012).
17 Source: City of Chilliwack (2012e).
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Table 2-6: Current and Projected Employment
Employment Category by 2-digit NAICS Code Estimation Method 2012 Estimated Jobs*
Commercial Accommodation and food services; Business, building and other support services; Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing; Professional, scientific and technical services; Retail and Wholesale.
FAR, $ Improvements 17,945
Industrial Transportation and warehousing; Construction, Manufacturing.
FAR $ Land and
Improvements 4,695
Institutional Educational services; Health care and social assistance; Information, culture and recreation; Other services.
FAR 9,390
Agriculture and Primary Resources Agriculture, forestry and mining.
$ Land and Improvements
2,500-5,000
TOTAL 34,500-37,115 Note: * Standard of Error 50%
Highlights of Employment Analysis
There are about 37,000 full-time equivalent jobs in the City.
Broadly, 50% of jobs are in commercial/service sectors, 20% in institutional sectors, 15% in industrial sectors and 5-15% in agricultural sectors.18
Retail and wholesale trade is the largest sector at 19% of jobs, then agriculture, forestry and mining at 15%, then accommodation and food at 10%.
Labour force does not match jobs estimates in the City. For instance 17% of labour force is employed in health and education fields versus 12% of jobs available in the City. Another mismatch is agricultural and resource- based industries which accounts for 6% of labour forces versus 5-15% of available jobs. This suggests that agriculture and resource-based workers are migrating into Chilliwack for work from other communities while professional workers living in Chilliwack are migrating out to other communities for work.
Manufacturing and construction sectors are equivalent from labour force to jobs.
Appendix B shows spatial allocation of employment by broad sector.
18 Note employment estimates have been derived based on numerous, and often conflicting sources. For the case of agricultural employment, estimates are based on total agricultural employment in the Fraser Valley area with Chilliwack expressed as a percentage of total agricultural employment from CanSim establishment location counts in the region, as well as from 3rd party business registries, and population and agricultural censes. It should be noted, however, that employment estimates should be verified by a comprehensive employment survey.
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3.0 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT TRENDS Globally, the economy seems to be recovering slowly from the recent global financial crisis although the situation
is very fragile in both Europe, where a number of countries are close to bankruptcy, and the United States where
extremely high levels of debt pose very significant challenges to our neighbour and largest trading partner.
Some researchers and analysts are suggesting that high levels of debt at the personal, corporate and
government levels are helping to make the economy appear to be better than it actually is. A number of global
trends that could have possible implications for Chilliwack are presented in Section 3-1.
The Provincial Context
More locally, the BC economy and its neighbours to the east are outpacing eastern Canada, boosted by a surge
in mining and oil and gas activity due to high mineral commodity prices and new technology to exploit natural
gas reserves. The employment losses that occurred in the recession have now been fully recouped and BC
employment levels increased 2.2% in 2011 (BC Economic Forecast 2012). These figures were boosted by
construction employment. In the near future transportation and warehouse jobs are predicted to increase as BC,
and the lower mainland becomes a more central hub for trade with Asia.
Employment in accommodation and food services is expected to decline slightly due to a week environment for
tourism and reduced consumer spending. Public sector employment is also expected to decline as the federal
and provincial government try to cut spending.
The Regional Context
The primary economic activities in the Fraser Valley Regional District include agriculture, forestry and
manufacturing. The service sector (including retail, commercial and the public sector) accounts for over 85% of
Chilliwack’s labour force. Farms provide products to the larger population centres to the west. There are a large
number of wood manufacturing firms. The Annual Allowable Cut has remained constant for many years.
Because of lower land prices, the region has attracted industrial and warehouse operations. The increase in the
number of new housing units has helped boost the construction industry.
3.1 Key Global Driving Forces that may Impact Chilliwack Economic Issues:
The global financial system is in increasingly fragile and volatile, with high debt levels.
International trade and foreign investment continue to increase.
The business environment is increasingly complex and faster moving.
Shared use initiatives (car sharing, rent your own things/place) are rising dramatically.
Production-based economic activity is shifting significantly to knowledge-based economic activity.
Work structures are changing with employment becoming more dynamic and less secure.
Disposable incomes are declining as food, fuel and other commodity prices rise.
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Social and Demographic Issues:
The population is aging, which is increasing health care costs and changing housing needs, leisure
preferences, and labour force dynamics.
The percentage of people living in cities is increasing.
The urban population of Canada and BC is becoming more ethnically diverse due to immigration.
The global population is rising, putting more pressure on resource use and the environment.
Income inequality is rising and the middle class is shrinking.
General health conditions are declining (rising obesity, diabetes, heart-related diseases and cancers).
Environmental Issues:
Weather events are becoming more severe, average long term temperatures are rising, and precipitation
patterns are changing.
Global CO2 emissions are rising.
Wildfires, insects and disease disturbances are increasing in Canadian ecosystems.
Natural resource commodity prices, including fossil fuel prices are rising and/or volatile.
Ecosystem health is declining and biodiversity is shrinking.
Technology Issues:
The information technology (IT) revolution continues (cloud computing, artificial intelligence, digital media).
Bio-science (genetically modification) and information technology are expanding.
Technologies become more miniaturized and decentralized.
Local energy supply technologies are expanding (district energy, solar, wind).
Political Issues:
Security threats continue to increase due to rising resource scarcity.
Global collaboration is increasing but only in a voluntary way and primarily focused on the economy.
Governments at all levels face increasing debt loads and increasing costs.
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4.0 RESULTS OF LOCAL ECONOMY SWOT ANALYSIS Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis is a strategic planning method used in
corporate, organizational and community economic planning. In economic development, SWOT helps identify
the community’s assets and gaps and how they might, or might not appeal, to the location decisions being
made by business. It is a straightforward assessment of the community that focuses on not just any asset but
those that are most strategically relevant, that is, those that could create a competitive advantage.
The following SWOT was compiled based on the literature review and interviews with key informants, with a
focus on sustainable strengths, correctable weaknesses and realistic, developable opportunities. The list of key
informants that we interviewed is provided in Appendix C.
A summary of SWOT elements is presented in Figure 4-1.
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Figure 4-1: Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats Overview.
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4.1 Strengths Good Quality of Life – Quality of Life is related to cost of living, community safety and resilience, job
opportunities, education opportunities and incomes. Chilliwack has a diverse group of recreation, social,
business, seniors and special interest organizations that contribute to the social fabric and sense of place. The
average single family dwelling cost is 60% less than Vancouver and 30% less than Abbotsford, meaning the
community is very affordable, especially for young families.
Lower Costs – In addition to lower real estate prices, Chilliwack has a lower cost of living and lower labour rates
than other municipalities in the region. This contributes to lower overall business costs and a favourable
environment for labour market expansion and development.
Urban Rural Landscape – Chilliwack offers a mix of rural and urban lifestyles featuring a range of outdoor
recreation opportunities and local entertainment and events. This blend of the country and the city appeals to
current residents but also in-migrants who appreciate the urban amenities as well as the convenience and
access to remote settings and experiences. Industry sectors such as agriculture, film and tourism value will
continue to value and exploit these natural assets.
Strategic Location – Chilliwack’s location on the geographic periphery of the third largest metropolitan area in
Canada offers numerous strategic advantages. Access to trade area of 250,000 with a 30 minute drive and
regional market of close to three million within a one hour drive provides key markets for much of the
community’s manufacturing and heavy industry production. The proximity to port facilities, rail services and the
US border provides many options to get goods and services to national and international markets. The vast
majority of highway traffic between the Lower Mainland to the province’s interior moves through Chilliwack.
Quality Infrastructure – Chilliwack has a distinct set of site specific advantages including access to a critical
mass of labour, transportation, firm networking, research, development and university resources. The access to
multi-modal transportation infrastructure and services and border facilities allows goods to be transported
virtually anywhere in the world. Chilliwack is home to a world-class post-secondary educational facility, the
University of the Fraser Valley (UFV). UFV offers specialized training in agriculture, business, technology, and
trades and is one of the few institutions in Canada with Transport Canada’s Approved Training Organizations
(ATO) designation for its aerospace training programs. Two other colleges, including Vancouver Career College
and MTI Community College, offer specialized programs for residents but also students from outside the
community.
A wide variety of community health services exist in Chilliwack, including Chilliwack Community Services
(volunteers, directory of services, counseling and crisis line), Chilliwack Mental Health (counseling),
Fraser-Cheam Home Support, and a number of facilities offering adult day programs, transportation services,
meal service and rehabilitation services.
Positive Business Climate – Chilliwack is known among real estate and development professionals as one of
the best communities in the Lower Mainland for establishing and growing a business. Industry surveys regularly
show Chilliwack as having among the best ratings for tax fairness, municipal costs and approval times for new
developments. CEPCO is recognized as a best-practice economic development office that has been actively
involved in facilitating new economic activity. This “can-do” attitude is an important element in attracting the
investment capital needed to build the jobs of the future.
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Diverse Economic Base – Chilliwack is not reliant on any one industry and maintains a relatively diverse
economic base. The loss of food processing facilities and the decommissioning the CFB Chilliwack in the 1990s
brought considerable upheaval to the community, yet the City is probably more sustainable today because jobs
and incomes are coming from a greater range of productive sectors. Chilliwack is home to the highest
concentration of food processors in British Columbia. It also has one quarter of the province’s farms producing
almost two thirds of gross farm sales, while only occupying 4% of the province’s total agricultural land. The
average 207 frost free days annually and a typical growing season running from March to November will
continue to attract crop and greenhouse production interest. The manufacturing sector generates more than
$1.8 billion in shipments and $618 million in value-added manufacturing. Productive activity is not just focused
on traditional wood products and food processing operations but is expanding into non-traditional, value-added
areas of production.
4.2 Weaknesses Perception as a Rural Community – Chilliwack is known as a farming community by many residents and the
business community in the Lower Mainland, and while the agricultural roots of the community are apparent, this
perception may be preventing some businesses who are interested in relocating or expanding from considering
Chilliwack as a viable location.
Urban Rural Conflicts – While the urban/rural mix is recognized as a strength, it can also create challenges,
including conflicts between farmers and neighbouring residential areas concerned about farm practices. For
example, the odours created by some producers and open air burning of agriculture waste have raised concerns
among residents. As the population increases and if agriculture activity, including food processing, expands, the
conflicts are likely to increase in magnitude in the future.
Downtown Core Challenges – There are signs of distressed properties in Chilliwack, mainly in the downtown
core and in some other shopping areas. Unappealing highway frontage with poor signage and way-finding
information is a contributing factor. In downtown, there are few anchor tenants capable of attracting large
number of customers, which is essential for creating a sense of vitality and place. Empty storefronts, absentee
landlords and challenges assembling land parcels that would attract developer interest are challenges. Ensuring
public safety and mitigating anti-social behaviour in the downtown goes hand-in-hand with renewing the
downtown as a centre of community activity.
Disadvantaged Groups – Chilliwack has a relatively good quality of life with reasonable living and business
costs. On the downside, these features also attract lower income families and disadvantaged segments of
society who may lack the resources and means to improve their standard of living. When compared with the BC
average, Chilliwack has a higher proportion of single parent families with children, people on income assistance
and seniors receiving the guaranteed income supplement. This can stress community services and in the case
of youth especially, prevent their integration into the workforce at a time when many industries are experiencing
skill and labour shortages.
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Public Transit Infrastructure – Chilliwack does not have a very well developed transit infrastructure. This
exacerbates traffic congestion and limits the ability for Chilliwack businesses to hire certain workers who have no
easy way to commute to work from one-car households. This also impacts students who find it difficult to get to
the University campuses for courses or to participate in job skills training programs. There is a regional transit
plan for Chilliwack and the Fraser Valley Regional District, and as the population grows it is hoped additions to
services will generate economic, social and environmental benefits.
4.3 Opportunities Land Use and Redevelopment – Chilliwack has a mix of lands that can be used to further develop the
economy of the community and attract new residents. By continuing to enhance the liveability of the community
with more green space, parks, walking and biking trails, and other amenities that local residents’ desire will help
retain existing residents and attract new residents. In addition, redevelopment that creates space for new
industrial and commercial opportunities and focuses on reducing conflicts with residential areas will lead to new
business opportunities and make Chilliwack more attractive to the desired workforce and their families.
Downtown Core Revitalization – Redevelopment of the downtown core area could accelerate revitalization and
business attraction of this area and serve as a key economic development opportunity in the community. The
downtown has experienced persistent economic decline because of the small number of anchor tenants capable
of attracting large number of customers to the downtown. By maintaining the downtown as a critical component
of the City that is attractive and safe, with a diversified and inclusive social mix, a growing population, and overall
increased liveability, will support economic growth objectives, and maintain Downtown as a civic centre and
people-gathering place.
Agriculture and Food Processing – Chilliwack accounts for 25% of the province’s farms (while only occupying
4% of the total agricultural land), and produces more than 62% of BC’s gross farm sales. It is therefore well
positioned to attract new agricultural businesses and to expand, and diversify agricultural activities. In addition,
new technology and changing demographics are creating opportunities and market niches for the local
agriculture sector to offer a new variety of goods and services. For food processors, Chilliwack is a desirable
location due to its source of raw materials and proximity to major transportation and distribution points. Space is
available and primed for development in the agri-business subdivision of Kerr/Brannick. As well, the emergence
of smaller food processing facilities, as farms incorporate small food processing facilities and retail outlets into
their business, positions Chilliwack to further grow this cluster.
Major Industry Attraction – Chilliwack has advantages over neighbouring communities when it comes to
industrial lands and services to the industrial sector. Specifically, the opportunity exists for Chilliwack to leverage
available, serviced and reasonably priced industrial land close to Cascadia markets to attract new industrial
businesses. In addition, the community has an excellent multi-modal transportation system, and a state-of-the-
art $21 million University of Fraser Valley Trades and Technology Centre that provides skilled employees that
can help the business capitalize on new opportunities. In addition, the community has access to industrial lands
at the local airport that can be used to develop an aerospace and aviation industry locally. More than twenty
aviation service companies are located at the airport and with available land to foster further growth in this
strategic sector (Wilkins 2013, pers. comm.).
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Tourism – Its location on the Trans-Canada Highway and its proximity between Metro Vancouver and the
surrounding spectacular outdoor recreational assets in the area has positioned Chilliwack as one of the
province’s key recreational Gateways. Already considerable numbers of travellers move through Chilliwack and
the potential exists to increase the number of multi-day visits in the area and activities enjoyed locally. In
addition, an opportunity is emerging to link to the diversification of agriculture through growing agri-tourism.
Other opportunities are related to golf courses, fishing for salmon, steelhead and sturgeon, surrounding
provincial parks such as Cultus Lake and Bridal Falls and the backcountry experience in the Columbia and
Chilliwack river valleys. It will be important to develop tourism opportunities that encourage people to come and
stay in the community instead of just using it as a stopping point.
First Nation Partnerships – Stó:lō First Nations are active partners in economic development in the Chilliwack
area. The Stó:lō Nation Bands have considerable landholdings in and around Chilliwack and are actively
developing economic activities in several areas. Stó:lō Community Futures, one of a handful of First Nation CFs
in the province, already offers business counselling, business loans for small to medium-sized Aboriginal
businesses, and works collaboratively with the 24 Stó:lō Nation communities within the Stó:lō traditional territory
on initiatives to improve community economic development. Collaborative economic development with the Stó:lō
First Nations is an opportunity to leverage new business activities desired by both communities.
Advanced Education – The University of the Fraser Valley is expanding its advanced education capacity
through Canada Education Park, which occupies the former Canadian Forces Base Chilliwack. This will help
expand the skills in the local labour force and create new opportunities for attracting new students and their
families. Partners in Canada Education Park include Chilliwack Economic Partners Corp., the City, Canada
lands Company, the RCMP, the Justice Institute of BC and Canadian Border Services Agency.
4.4 Threats Demographic Change – Demographic change is affecting Chilliwack in many ways, including the overall aging
of the population and workforce. Given the existing urban/rural conflicts, population growth will present
challenges unless it can be managed in line with community expectations. Urban sprawl and the loss of green
space may accompany or exacerbate the situation. The aging population and work force will have profound
implications for the local economy particularly if it cannot be at least partially offset through the retention of youth
and young working families. Some cornerstone industries like forestry, agriculture, construction and
machinery/equipment manufacturing are having increasing challenges attracting skilled workers. Many farm
owners and producers who are approaching retirement will have succession issues that may interfere with their
living standards. Lower levels of school-aged children will have implications for the education sector and in some
cases, the viability of schools themselves.
High Unemployment – Although Chilliwack’s 2011 unemployment rate was lower than Abbotsford’s, the
general trend over the last 10 years indicates a higher unemployment rate than either Abbotsford or BC. The
ability to create jobs that provide opportunities for residents is fundamental to building a healthy and vibrant
community. Assuming that Chilliwack will grow as projected in the future; there will have to be at least a
proportional or greater increase in employment opportunities to maintain living standards.
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Commuting Requirements – Without an increase in jobs that matches population growth, the labour force in
Chilliwack will have to commute out of the community to find employment that is career-oriented and able to
provide family supporting wages. This results in added time and costs for working residents and has implications
for economic growth, social development and environmental quality.
Value of the Canadian Dollar – The value of the dollar has had a marked effect on many economic indicators
over the last five years, especially when it exceeded par with the US dollar. Exports become less competitive
and the provincial trade and travel deficits widen. In tourism, the rise of the dollar has made travel to this country
by non-residents more expensive, and travel outside the country by residents more attractive. For example, the
number of US visitors coming to BC has declined steeply over the last decade, which has had adverse
consequences for many tourism operators. The film industry is also impacted by a high Canadian dollar.
Environmental Quality – As the population grows and economic activity expands, there will be increasing
pressure on water and air quality that are essential to the community’s quality of life. As a confined air shed, the
Fraser Valley Regional District is the recipient of pollution from the entire Lower Mainland with negative impacts
on human health and some industries such as crop production. The intensification of agriculture also creates
risks for Avian flu type viruses and the spread of crop pests. Development on steep terrains and removal of
hillside forests due to increasing growth pressure is also a serious threat to the City's future environmental
quality.
Rising Land Costs – Escalating property values are a fact of life for all Lower Mainland communities, including
Chilliwack. Given the rapid projected population growth of Chilliwack, residential, commercial, and industrial
property prices may inhibit new businesses and/or employees from moving to the City. Further, and as noted in
the Agriculture Area Plan, speculative buying of agricultural land in anticipation of rezoning is contributing to
higher costs for food production,
Limited Commercial and Industrial Land Base – As the population grows and there is more demand for
housing space, the land area available for businesses will further decline. This will create a need for the city to
be more selective in the types of businesses that it encourages (e.g. those that create more jobs per land area)
and to ensure that vacant brownfield sites that become vacant or unused are redeveloped in a timely manner.
Given that there are not expected to be any lands removed from the ALR, there will be increased pressure to
find ways to use available land more intensively.
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5.0 STAKEHOLDER INPUT We obtained input from the local community on economic prospects for Chilliwack in four different ways:
Key informant interviews with 12 community members;
A stakeholder workshop with 24 participants held on November 15, 2012;
A series of three focus groups with 23 participants on November 19, 2012; and
A community business survey, completed by 240 firms.
The results of the key informant interviews were incorporated into the SWOT analysis in the previous chapter.
The results of the other stakeholder engagement methods are presented in the following sections.
5.1 Stakeholder Workshop A 3.5 hour workshop was held at the Chilliwack cultural centre with about 25 community representatives
representing a wide range of economic interests and sectors. The workshop consisted of three main
components:
A discussion of the implications of and responses to four possible future scenarios for Chilliwack;
Development of key economic strategies in four broad categories; and
Development of an economic vision statement for Chilliwack.
The results of the future scenarios exercise is presented in Appendix D. The results of the others components
are described below.
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5.1.1 Key Economics Strategies
After completing the scenarios exercise the participants were asked to develop a set of robust strategies that
would be successful under multiple scenarios. The results are summarized below.
Business:
Support smaller and more local retailers.
Improve infrastructure and transit.
Expand trades training and education.
Increase productivity, particularly for agriculture.
Encourage specialized and value added local food production (blueberries, corn).
Promote ecotourism opportunities such as sport fishing.
Create a pro-business climate with fewer regulations and less red tape.
Place:
Create better understanding of infrastructure for both residents and visitors.
Be more responsive and flexible in land use planning without compromising standards.
Review and develop transit and transportation to complement overall community development.
Promote responsible densification, including diverse housing options (i.e., Hubs, existing areas).
People:
Expand the skill set of community members.
Encourage training in the creative industry (e.g., arts, crafts, design, film, music, publishing, software).
Engage youth in community.
Encourage inter-generational learning and living.
Create integrated lifestyle living (village environments).
Provide cluster services for seniors.
Provide a safe community with adequate health services.
Include all income levels in economic planning.
Establish more community gardens.
Sustainability:
Intensify land use planning.
Promote applied science and technology to support ecologically responsible agricultural productivity.
Develop eco-friendly tourism destination programming.
Foster a healthy community with good transportation, bike lanes and locally sourced goods.
Market our resources and opportunities to the global community.
Provide affordable, safe, low impact housing for students, seniors and young families.
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5.1.2 Economic Vision Statement
The participants developed a series of economic vision statements that are grouped below under ten themes.
Themes Statements – “An economically prosperous Chilliwack …”
A complete community
Is an attractive place to live, work, socialize and raise a family
Is a great place to live, learn, recreate and spend your entire life in
Is full of opportunities for people to work, live, recreate and learn
Is self-sufficient
A sustainable community
Is socially and environmentally responsible with beautiful design
Has more bike lanes on developed streets
Has a strong business sector that practices corporate social responsibility
Is environmentally progressive (e.g. acts to reduce env. impacts)
A thriving community
Has good employment prospects and opportunities for young people
Has a vibrant, thriving downtown
Has the strongest economic growth in the lower mainland
A healthy community
Is a safe and healthy place where everyone wants to live
Enjoys abundance, prosperity and health
Has a safe healthy environment
A diverse, healthy living community
A diverse community
Is an economically prosperous community that embraces diversity
Has a strong, diverse employment base
Promotes diversity and inclusiveness in housing and community planning
A caring community
That gives a subsidy to families in need to use recreational facilities
Encourages and develops its youth
Provides a comfortable and self-fulfilling lifestyle for all groups
Recognizes strong family needs
An inclusive community
Is inclusive, empathic and engaged
Is socially and economically inclusive
Is integrated with age and classes and education
A learning community Supports change through technical advancements and education
Gives visionaries and dreamers the freedom to fulfill their dreams
A tourism community
Has world class outdoor recreation opportunities that appeal to both national and international visitors, year round
Markets tourism to outside communities
Is tourism literate and welcomes the world
An agricultural community
Has a flexible agricultural sector that can take advantage of niche markets
Has value added agricultural products that meet world market standards
Is globally recognized as leaders in agriculture and applied technology
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5.2 Focus Group Sessions On November 19, 2012, we conducted focus groups with three industry sectors: Manufacturing, agriculture and tourism. The key recommendations from each session are summarized below.
5.2.1 Manufacturing Sector
The following recommendations were made to improve the manufacturing sector (the number indicates the number of votes for each recommendation):
Recommendation Notes
Work with manufacturers to attract suppliers and distributors to existing businesses (6)
Having suppliers/distributors in the same community reduces business costs and creates industry clusters that are mutually reinforcing.
Maintain tax competitiveness between industrial and residential land owners (6)
Chilliwack has the lowest commercial to residential tax ratio in the lower mainland. This is viewed as key to creating a favourable business climate.
Build more amenities (skating rinks, hospitals, roads) to attract high quality workers (6)
The participants agreed that a “complete” community with a full range of recreational and community services helps to attract high quality workers.
Create flexibility around zoning and re-zoning (6)
As an example, an industrial firm that wanted to downsize and rent out space to a commercial firm. That triggered a requirement to add parking and trees that removed the financial benefit to the industrial firm. Another person indicated that his business was prevented from expanding because it was on the wrong side of the road for zoning.
Reduce municipal bureaucracy that inhibits business development. Make regulations clear. (5)
The group cited requirements to have a minimum number of parking spaces in an industrial area where they were not needed or a requirement to plant trees in areas where they did not make sense.
Make it easier to obtain labourers (even unskilled labourers) to fill jobs (4)
The lack of access to labour inhibits business activity. Some participants felt this was a problem while others did not, indicating that advertising methods may be part of the problem. It was agreed that there is a shortage of skilled labour in skilled manufacturing jobs (e.g., welders). Flexible working arrangements were cited as a solution.
Create level playing field by ensuring that firms manufacturing on agricultural land are charged mfg. tax rates(4)
The participants cited numerous cases where firms are paying $40 / acre instead of $400/acre in taxes because they are manufacturing on land zoned for agriculture where they should be on industrial land19.
Capitalize on the new University of Fraser Valley (UFV) trades and technology facility (4)
Currently, training is only provided for year 1. After that students have to go to another educational institution.
Improve public transit to get employees to work and make it easier to get around Chilliwack (4)
There was strong agreement that transit needs to be improved. One person mentioned creating flexible zoning to all employers to live closer to work. Participants noted that Surrey has created multi-use zones. Employers should be encouraged to subsidize employee transit passes.
Improve urban/rural interactions (4) Participants cited risks to businesses if these conflicts grow. Odours from agricultural operations were mentioned as an example.
Discourage holding industrial land for speculative purposes (2)
This restricts access to industrial land that could be used to help increase economic activity.
Improve rural road maintenance and snow removal (2)
Participants noted the importance of being able to deliver products as they are being produced.
19 The City of Chilliwack Finance Department could not confirm or deny the tax rates indicated by the participants because the tax charged on a per $1,000 of assessed value basis not on a per acre basis. However, they acknowledged that agricultural land assessment values are set by the provincial government and are much lower than commercial and industrial land.
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Other recommendations for the manufacturing sector included:
Focus on helping manufacturing businesses that are already here;
Improve access to skills training;
Keep industrial land costs low;
Give local firms preferential treatment when bidding on municipal projects; and
Create a directory of local companies and ask CEPCO to promote it.
5.2.2 Agriculture Sector
The following recommendations were made to improve the agriculture sector:
Recommendation Notes
Communicate with the Agricultural Land Commission (ALC) about more effective land use for all parties (9)
The discussion needs to include land use priorities (intensive vs. non-intensive land uses), whether or not to allow greenhouses (even if they have concrete foundations), and reclassification of agricultural lands (AL). It was agreed that there should not be a blanket policy to support all land in the ALR even if it is poor quality or a fragmented parcel. Different zoning is needed for a pig farm and a greenhouse. We need zoning by land use.
Help the agriculture sector tell its story/highlight the broad benefits of agriculture (9)
Agriculture is seen as being less desirable because it has a low tax base. It needs support to highlight the benefits of buying locally produced agriculture products (e.g., 100 mile diet approach). It also needs to tell the story of how it is being environmentally responsible. Conduct an annual conference on agriculture in urban areas.
Expand research and development on agricultural issues (9)
Create an agricultural incubation centre. Advocate for the food innovation centre to continue (the Centre is slated to close after four years and $400,000 in spending). Provide more assistance on disease control. Build on the strengths of the UFV and add more degree programs. Endow an agriculture research chair and find funding for it. It was noted that the Agriculture Research Centre is cutting back on researchers because of funding cutbacks. The berry industry is helping to pay for berry research.
Encourage implementation of the Agricultural Area Plan (9)
The plan has a broad range of ideas that are strongly supported. It just needs a focus to turn the ideas into action and implement them.
Lobby to reduce federal regulations that prevents use of the land (6)
The fisheries act was cited as an example of a federal regulation that has significant costs to agriculture.
Promote Chilliwack farm products as a local brand (5)
A “grown or made in Chilliwack” campaign would help make local consumers aware of the range of agricultural products produced in Chilliwack. This is already happening in a few cases such as “Chilliwack corn.”
Encourage training and education of young farmers and prospective farmers (5)
Youth don’t see agriculture as a desirable career sector. There is a need to create more interest in schools. The AFV is supportive of agriculture but needs to be made more aware of its value. Land should be rented to young farmers at a low cost to entice them to farm more. The sector needs to provide more training for immigrant workers. Chilliwack should copy the Ontario farm start program, which includes mentoring for new farmers. The city could broker these arrangements.
Consider developing of footprint legislation for estate houses on agricultural land (5)
Some estate homes on agricultural land are so large that they limit the use of the land for agricultural purposes. This was not anticipated when estate houses were originally allowed on ALR land. This issue is addressed in the Agriculture Area Plan for Chilliwack.
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Other recommendations for the agricultural sector included:
Develop a seasonal workforce program to attract seasonal workers;
Reduce bylaws that negatively impact on agriculture;
Partner with large agricultural players;
Create an agriculture friendly business climate; and
Keep vertically integrated with food manufacturing to create local end markets for agriculture.
5.2.3 Tourism Sector
The following recommendations were made to improve the tourism sector (this group did not vote on particular
recommendations but did identify some as being high priority:
Recommendation Notes
Develop facilities and accommodations so Chilliwack can hold larger events and conferences (HIGH)
Chilliwack does not have the accommodation capacity or facility room sizes to attract major conferences such as medical conventions or the Canadian fire chiefs’ conference. It was recommended that Chilliwack partner with the Stó:lō Nation and develop a strategy to emulate the successful first nation’s partnership in Osoyoos. The current investigation of convention centre feasibility on Lickman Road could lead to further business planning.
Create a plan for accommodation sector development (HIGH)
This is related to the above recommendation but goes further. A need exists to determine the best locations and identify the gaps. Without it, the City is getting more discount hotels on the highway that it doesn’t need or hotels next to industrial land because of the available zoning. The zoning laws that are used to restrict liquor store and theatre locations could be applied to hotels.
Increase transit services for Visitors, especially between Vancouver and Chilliwack (HIGH)
There are few scheduled buses between Chilliwack and other lower mainland Cities. More people would be attracted to the City if it was easier to travel to/from. Rocky Mountaineer negotiated passenger rail access with CN Rail; perhaps Chilliwack could do the same. It was noted that this was considered in the past but the rail costs were determined to be cost prohibitive.
Work to attract diverse businesses and more tourism enterprises
The Cal Tire re-tire centre was cited as an example of a business that enhances diversity. Fishing tackle businesses and equestrian centres were cited as examples of tourism businesses.
Better promote Chilliwack as a regional and global tourist destination
Chilliwack has international recognition as a sport fishing destination but low awareness locally. The City should focus on a few sectors like fishing, hiking and golfing. Regionally, the strategy should be to encourage people to extend their stay instead of just doing day trips. Conventions of various service clubs and professional societies could play on Chilliwack’s central location.
Better promote and revitalize the downtown
There is a need to look at the accommodation gaps and visual aesthetic of downtown. It was noted that as the downtown is developed, businesses will be willing to move in, which will further enhance the vibrancy of the downtown and make it feel safer.
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Recommendation Notes
Develop Heritage Park to attract bigger shows
Heritage Park has a good amount of land but needs to finalize a plan on how to develop it. Tourism Chilliwack has just taken over the management of Heritage Park. It was noted that the Culture Centre and Leisure Centre are important assets. Heritage Park is located within the ALR and has some non-farm uses with approval from the Agricultural Land Commission. The ALC would need to review and approve any changes in land use.
Better promote sport tourism
Chilliwack could host events like skate Canada or national field hockey or hockey tournaments where visitors will come and stay for several days during the tournament. The City should collaborate with Abbotsford and Langley on this. The accommodation strategy noted above could support this opportunity.
Expand the existing boat launch and add a second boat launch as well as a river front park.
There is limited access to the river even though it is an excellent tourist amenity. Chilliwack is losing business to other communities on the river because it does not have good river access or river-side facilities and accommodations. Island 22 needs to be enhanced and protected from flooding. A river park with bike paths along the Fraser River could become a major tourist draw. The river could also be used for transit to/from Mission and Fort Langley. An “Experience the Fraser” concept plan has been developed to create paths and linkages all along the Fraser from Hope to the Ocean.
Improve access to the mountains to expand tourism
It was noted that Mount Cheam is a great mountain for hiking but access to the mountain is poor. Investigate the feasibility of establishing a gondola on the nearby mountain to attract more tourists.
Develop themed day trips Examples mentioned included: farm tours combined with restaurant tourism. First nations tours, river tours, eagle-watching tours, hiking trips.
5.3 Business Community Survey An online and paper survey was issued to Chilliwack businesses to identify issues and opportunities related to
economic development, determine priorities and goals for the city, and establish a vision for the future. 210
surveys were completed.
SECTION 1: GENERAL FEELINGS ABOUT THE CITY’S ECONOMY
Respondents were asked about their general opinions regarding the city’s economy. Over half of the
respondents agreed or strongly agreed that the local economy would grow and prosper over the next year while
roughly one third didn’t know or felt it would stay the same. The large majority of respondents agreed that many
opportunities exist to expand the economy in Chilliwack. Over 70% of respondents were satisfied to extremely
satisfied with the City as a place to do business.
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1) Please indicate your level of agreement with the following statement: "Over the next year, I feel
the local economy will grow and prosper." (Mark one only)
Response Chart Percentage Count
Strongly Disagree 3% 6
Disagree 10% 23
Neither Agree nor Disagree 30% 68
Agree 51% 118
Strongly Agree 7% 15
Total Responses 230
Of these respondents, particular groups felt more strongly than others. Sole employers (i.e., self-employed) and
companies with over 10 employees had higher degrees of agreement that the local economy would grow and
prosper over the next year. However, companies with 1 – 10 employees and those who were headquartered in
Chilliwack showed greater uncertainty. Not surprisingly, companies who were less likely to remain within the
community over the next 5 years were more likely to disagree with this statement.
2) Please indicate your level of agreement with the following statement: “Many opportunities exist
to expand the economy in Chilliwack? (Mark one only)
Response Chart Percentage Count
Strongly Disagree 2% 5
Disagree 7% 15
Neither Agree nor Disagree 21% 49
Agree 61% 140
Strongly Agree 9% 21
Total Responses 230
Sole employers showed a higher level of agreement with this statement while those who were less likely to
remain in the community over the next 5 years showed less agreement with this statement.
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3) How satisfied are you with the City as a place to do business? (Mark one only)
Response Chart Percentage Count
Not at all Satisfied 4% 10
Somewhat Satisfied 23% 52
Satisfied 38% 87
Very Satisfied 26% 60
Extremely Satisfied 8% 19
Total Responses 228
Sole employers, production-based businesses, and companies who were very/extremely likely to remain in the
community over the next 5 years showed a higher degree of satisfaction with the City as a place to do business.
Groups who were less satisfied included companies who were less likely to remain in the community over the
next 5 years, companies who were not headquartered in Chilliwack, and companies with over 10 employees.
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SECTION 2: ECONOMIC ISSUES AND OPPORTUNITIES
4) In your opinion, what are the two most important economic opportunities in the City today?
330 responses were received in total however some comments fit multiple categories and were coded more than once. The responses are summarized as follows:
Industry sector development (165):
Continue to promote real estate, development, and construction sectors (60).
Expand and support manufacturing and industrial sectors, particularly those related to agriculture (35).
Continue to expand and support sustainable agriculture by protecting farmland, supporting and promoting value-added products, and developing facilities as appropriate (34).
Continue to support the local service sector, retail, and restaurants (24).
Continue to support resource industries such as forestry and natural gas (5).
Develop a strong trucking/transportation industry by becoming a distribution hub, enhancing links to other cities, and taking advantage of existing freeway/rail routes (4).
Promote the development of new sector (technology, music, movies) (2).
Develop business opportunities related to seniors’ health/services (2).
General economic development (103):
Promote the growth potential of Chilliwack by advertising the availability of land, affordable housing, business-friendly environment, and desirable community attributes (31).
Support new businesses and entrepreneurs and seek opportunities for local job creation (29).
Revitalize and redevelop the Downtown core while protecting and promoting heritage (18).
Promote the affordability of housing in Chilliwack compared with surrounding areas and continue to develop a range of affordable housing options (13).
Develop and expand all sectors on available land (residential, commercial, industrial, institutional, agricultural) where appropriate (12).
Municipal role (54):
Take advantage of existing tourism opportunities (e.g., outdoor recreation, agri-tourism, heritage) (25).
Continue to promote a business-friendly government with friendly city staff and lower tax rates (20).
Market the city as a business hub, tourist destination, and desirable community to live in through promotion and trade shows (9).
Community development and education (37):
Continue to enhance community involvement in economic development, encourage local spending and support for businesses, enhance community diversity (not just a retirement community), create more entertainment and recreation opportunities, and support community safety through policing and crime prevention (20).
Continue to enhance and promote education (e.g., University of the Fraser Valley expansion, RCMP Training Centre) and support local trades/skills training (17).
Continue to develop and provide social services (particularly for seniors) (2).
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5) In your opinion, what are the two greatest economic threats facing the City today?
331 responses were received in total; however, some comments fit multiple categories and were coded more
than once. Here’s what they said.
Development/Land Use (138):
Over or under-development – sprawl, cost, overdevelopment of some sectors and underdevelopment of others, Agricultural Land Commission (ALC) restrictions (49).
Fragile economy – local and global recession, lack of project funding (21).
Decaying Downtown – core has too many vacancies, needs maintenance and revitalization (21).
Inadequate transportation infrastructure – high fuel costs, inadequate transit, train traffic, lack of linkages to other cities (21).
Loss of agricultural land – urban expansion into agricultural areas, ineffective Agricultural Land Reserve (ALR) protection (14).
First Nations land use issues – concerns over land use, uncertainty surrounding land claims, casinos (6).
Lack of certain types of housing – lack of affordable housing, not enough land for single family homes, need apartments Downtown (6).
Municipal role (85):
Inefficient governance (municipal, provincial, federal) – increasing taxes, lengthy bureaucracy, a lack of enforcement for unethical business compliance, poor management of fisheries, lack of business/development incentives (71).
High level of crime, drugs – excessive crime and drugs, property crime (16).
Business/Employment (63):
Lack of jobs -unemployment, poverty, low wages, (especially for younger workforce), high start-up costs for new businesses (22).
Consumers shopping elsewhere –in Abbotsford or across the border, Americanization (21).
Domination of big box retailers – superstores and malls dominating retail market (12).
Local business competition – oversupply in certain sectors, competition, increasing overhead costs, competition with out-of-town businesses for local work (5).
Resource impacts – impacts of logging and mining/agricultural odours (3).
Community (20):
Poor community support – lack of healthcare programs and social services, children at risk, support for homelessness and addiction, community attitudes, lack of identity, overpopulation, rising cost of living (10).
Inadequate education/training – not enough trades/skills training, young people must leave to find employment (7).
Lack of recreation – lack of activities (especially for young people), lack of sports facilities (3).
Environment (6):
Pollution/environmental decline - degradation of air, water, and ecosystem health (4).
Threat of natural disasters and weather-related events (e.g., flooding) (2).
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6) Which development priorities do you feel are appropriate for the City?
When asked about appropriate development priorities for the City, respondents generally felt that the listed
priorities were important to extremely important.
Not surprisingly, larger companies (with over 10 employees) and those who have been operating for over 10
years placed less emphasis on assisting entrepreneurs and start-ups while companies operating for less than 10
years were more likely to rank this as an important priority for the City.
Companies headquartered outside of the community and those who were less likely to remain within the
community over the next 5 years placed less emphasis on attracting business to the community. Those with
headquarters outside of Chilliwack were also less concerned with helping existing businesses to expand/grow.
Production-based companies placed slightly more emphasis on development incentives.
A number of other priorities for the City were also suggested; these were generally related to development,
infrastructure, planning, and taxation.
Not Important
Somewhat Important
ImportantVery
Important Extremely Important
Total Responses
Priority Ranking*
Attract business to the community
1 (0%) 11 (5%) 49 (22%) 68 (30%) 97 (43%) 226 2 (82%)
Help existing business expand/grow
4 (2%) 5 (2%) 42 (19%) 72 (32%) 99 (45%) 222 1 (83%)
Assist entrepreneurs and start-ups
7 (3%) 18 (8%) 58 (26%) 67 (30%) 72 (32%) 222 5 (76%)
Reduce red-tape
7 (3%) 20 (9%) 61 (27%) 48 (22%) 86 (39%) 222 4 (77%)
Offer development incentives
13 (6%) 22 (10%) 53 (24%) 58 (26%) 75 (34%) 221 6 (74%)
Improve Infrastructure
2 (1%) 15 (7%) 55 (25%) 56 (25%) 96 (43%) 224 3 (80%)
Other (please describe below)
6 (14%) 0 (0%) 2 (5%) 7 (16%) 29 (66%) 44 -
*Priority rankings have been assigned by calculating the weighted score (sum of all categories/total # of categories).
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Other suggested priorities included:
Comprehensive planning, zoning, and taxation (19).
Concentrate on infill development and adaptive re-use (9).
Revitalize the Downtown core (6).
Address transportation infrastructure and road maintenance (6).
Integrate complementary and innovative businesses (3).
Raise awareness and enhance community identity/pride (3).
Attract new residents to the community (2).
Protect and enhance the environment and green spaces/parks (2).
Provide more sports/recreation/fun (2).
Reduce crime (1).
Increase housing (1).
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7) Which of the following sectors of the economy do you feel hold strong opportunities for Chilliwack?
Respondents generally felt all the economic sectors listed held opportunities for Chilliwack. The greatest
emphasis was on agriculture and manufacturing, with several comments suggesting an opportunity to add value
to the agricultural sector by expanding local processing facilities. A number of other opportunities were
suggested although these were generally single comments reflecting the respondent’s industry or business. The
greatest emphasis from these suggestions focused on recreational and educational facilities.
No Potential
Some Potential
Average Potential
Good Potential
Excellent Potential
Total Responses
Priority Ranking*
Agriculture 4 (2%) 11 (5%) 32 (15%) 89 (41%) 81 (37%) 217 1 (81%)
Tourism, Heritage, Arts
5 (2%) 27 (12%) 53 (24%) 63 (29%) 71 (32%) 219 4 (75%)
Manufacturing 1 (0%) 13 (6%) 59 (27%) 83 (37%) 66 (30%) 222 2 (78%)
Construction 0 (0%) 12 (6%) 57 (26%) 89 (41%) 59 (27%) 217 2 (78%)
Transportation, Warehousing
3 (1%) 20 (9%) 77 (35%) 65 (30%) 55 (25%) 220 5 (74%)
Technology 1 (0%) 17 (8%) 63 (29%) 78 (36%) 59 (27%) 218 3 (76%)
Professional Services
0 (0%) 18 (8%) 71 (33%) 77 (35%) 52 (24%) 218 4 (75%)
Retail Trade and Restaurants
6 (3%) 27 (12%) 55 (25%) 92 (41%) 42 (19%) 222 4 (75%)
Other (please describe below)
2 (9%) 1 (4%) 0 (0%) 7 (30%) 13 (57%) 23 6 (72%)
*Priority rankings have been assigned by calculating the weighted score (sum of all categories/total # of categories).
Other suggested priorities/comments included:
Educational institutions (3).
Sports and recreation facilities (3).
Retail and restaurants (2).
Health services (2).
Food systems and agricultural support businesses (2).
Environmental businesses (1).
Home based businesses (1).
Real estate (1).
Automotive businesses (1).
Second hand/thrift shops (1).
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September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 37
8) What economic development goals should the community pursue?
Respondents generally supported the economic development goals listed. The highest priorities included sustainable businesses and the creation of local jobs while the lowest priorities included increasing land and expanding the business tax base. A number of other goals were also suggested.
Again, certain groups placed different emphasis on these goals. Sole employers placed a greater emphasis on improving household incomes and less on increasing land availability while larger companies (with over 10 employees) placed less emphasis on household incomes.
Companies with headquarters outside the City and larger companies (over 10 employees) both placed less emphasis on sustainable businesses; however larger companies placed more emphasis on increasing the supply of skilled labour while companies headquartered elsewhere placed less emphasis on local employment. Production-based companies were also less concerned with local labour supply.
Companies who were less likely to remain within the community over the next 5 years placed more emphasis on increasing skilled labour as well as the availability of land for businesses.
Not Important
Somewhat Important
Important Very
important Extremely important
Total Responses
Priority Ranking*
Diversify the economic base
2 (1%) 13 (6%) 65 (31%) 65 (31%) 63 (30%) 208 4 (77%)
Expand the business tax base
7 (4%) 24 (12%) 76 (38%) 57 (29%) 34 (17%) 198 6 (69%)
Create more local jobs
4 (2%) 8 (4%) 29 (14%) 77 (36%) 96 (45%) 214 1 (84%)
Improve household incomes
7 (3%) 6 (3%) 51 (24%) 73 (34%) 76 (36%) 213 3 (79%)
Focus on sustainable businesses
3 (1%) 10 (5%) 33 (15%) 79 (36%) 93 (43%) 218 2 (83%)
Increase land availability for business
19 (9%) 38 (18%) 62 (29%) 45 (21%) 52 (24%) 216 7 (67%)
Increase supply of skilled workers
9 (4%) 12 (6%) 68 (32%) 71 (33%) 55 (26%) 215 7 (67%)
Other (please describe below)
2 (9%) 0 (0%) 1 (4%) 5 (22%) 15 (65%) 23 5 (74%)
*Priority rankings have been assigned by calculating the weighted score (sum of all categories/total # of categories).
CITY OF CHILLIWACK ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS
September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 38
Other suggested goals included:
Expand new business development (6).
Agricultural, commercial, and residential (4).
Improve infrastructure and transit (3).
Concentrate on the downtown core (2).
Retain existing jobs and connect to other areas to attract skilled workers (2).
Improve local healthcare (1).
9) If you have a vision for the future economic development of the City, please share it with us in a few short sentences.
Respondents raised numerous issues and opportunities in their visions for the economic future of Chilliwack.
Recommendations based on respondent feedback are listed below. The number of comments corresponding to
the theme/recommendation are listed in brackets.
Enhance Business (28)
Support new businesses/sectors and attract existing businesses to the community (16):
Promote the city’s business-friendly environment and attract new businesses to the area and expand the tax base (5).
Encourage the development of arts, recreation, entertainment, and tourist attractions within the City (3).
Promote the high tech sector to encourage younger skilled workers to relocate to Chilliwack (2).
Promote a diverse economy with a range of retail, service, agriculture, industrial, manufacturing, and institutional sectors (2).
Support new businesses and start-ups through providing low-rent spaces and reducing red tape (2).
Leverage existing businesses to attract suppliers and customers and expand the local supply/production chain (1).
Expand target markets to Asia and Africa (1).
Support the growth and expansion of existing local businesses and sectors (12):
Support the expansion of manufacturing and production businesses, particularly with regards to agriculture (4).
Support local businesses/local shopping and self-sufficiency within the community (3).
Provide incentives for independently owned and operated businesses and reduce/restrict large foreign-owned companies and franchises (2).
Support/promote Downtown businesses to revitalize the heart of the community (2).
Streamline the process for existing businesses to grow and expand within the community (1).
CITY OF CHILLIWACK ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS
September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 39
Revitalize the Downtown (25)
Encourage a diverse range of businesses in the Downtown core (e.g., mixed use, businesses,
entertainment, housing) (17):
Plan for Downtown revitalization and infill/adaptive re-use to reduce sprawl and create a vibrant City centre (9).
Promote and support a diverse range of Downtown businesses and entertainment options (3).
Promote mixed use development in the Downtown (1).
Create a historic district Downtown and promote revitalization and adaptive reuse of heritage buildings through developer incentives (1).
Prevent sprawling parking lots that are not needed (1).
Plan and invest in Downtown revitalization with appropriate governmental support for crime prevention,
social services, and maintenance (6):
Invest in maintenance and beautification City-wide, particularly in the Downtown (e.g., crime prevention, cleanliness, social services, etc.) (4).
End the Business Improvement Area (BIA) experiment and focus on the Downtown core as a whole (2).
Promote and support existing Downtown commercial and residential properties (2):
Promote the Downtown area as an affordable residential area, particularly for young people (1).
Promote and support existing Downtown businesses (1).
Improve Governance (19)
Ensure fair and comprehensive taxation and bylaw enforcement (7):
Enforce bylaws to ensure all businesses are treated fairly (e.g., taxing non-compliant businesses operating in farm buildings, ensuring all businesses are paying property/business taxes) (3).
Reduce personal and small to medium sized business taxes to increase disposable incomes and local spending. Increase property/business taxes for larger companies and developers (2).
Maintain a business-friendly municipal system and streamline business processes (permits, approvals, taxes, fees, etc.) (2).
Ensure political accountability (6):
Provide better political accountability (3).
Continue to remain open and approachable (e.g., friendly and helpful city staff) (2).
Stop long-term P3 partnerships that restrict the city’s flexibility (1).
Plan for future development in a comprehensive manner (e.g., OCP, best practices) (4):
Use the OCP to guide future development in the city and avoid sprawl (1).
Preserve agricultural lands for agriculture (1).
Continue to apply for provincial and federal support (1).
Study other comparable cities and learn best practices for economic development close to major urban centers (e.g., Peterborough, Ontario) (1).
CITY OF CHILLIWACK ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS
September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 40
Invest in education and safety (e.g., skills training, crime prevention, flood protection) (2):
Provide and promote educational/training opportunities for young people so that they can remain in the community and find employment locally (1).
Invest in crime prevention and flood protection (1).
Promote Tourism (14)
Establish and promote the Chilliwack “lifestyle” and identity as a means of attracting new residents and
businesses (particularly younger generations) (8):
Promote Chilliwack “lifestyle” in the media - a place to live, work, and play (particularly for younger generations) (3).
Retain scenic agriculture nature (2).
Reduce focus on agriculture and promote new high tech/educational sectors to younger generations (1).
Promote self-sufficiency as a part of Chilliwack’s identity (1).
Maintain and promote heritage as an important part of city identity (1).
Revitalize the Downtown and promote as a tourist destination (3):
Revitalize the Downtown so that it is more attractive to tourists (shopping, entertainment, heritage, festivals, etc.) (3).
Promote existing tourism opportunities and develop new ones (3):
Promote agricultural sectors with bike trails and tourist access (agri-tourism) (1).
Promote outdoor recreational tourism/provide information on hiking/biking trails (1).
Work with First Nations to promote recreation/tourism (1).
Improve Transportation (12)
Enhance vehicle and transit connections within Chilliwack and to nearby municipalities and Vancouver (7):
Reduce transportation time/cost to reach other adjacent municipalities (e.g., Port Mann bridge) (4).
Connect the various areas of Chilliwack (i.e., Sardis, Downtown, Landing) (1).
Enhance transit access to adjacent municipalities (1).
Enhance commuter rail access throughout Fraser Valley (1).
Enhance transit, walking, and cycling networks throughout the city (5):
Enhance pedestrian/cyclist environment and connectivity throughout the city (3).
Enhance the Downtown core to reduce sprawl and transportation time/emissions (1).
Provide smaller buses within town to reduce operating costs (1).
CITY OF CHILLIWACK ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS
September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 41
Enhance Land Development (8)
Concentrate development and infill in core areas to reduce sprawl (e.g., Downtown, Vedder Crossing,
Yarrow) (8):
Concentrate development and re-development in core areas to reduce sprawl (e.g., Downtown, Vedder Crossing, Yarrow) (3).
Promote infill and mixed use development in core areas, especially Downtown (2).
Restrict development in satellite communities (e.g., Yarrow, Greendale, Rusedale) (1).
Stop developing agricultural land (1).
Reduce the restrictions on zoning and land use to enhance development diversity (e.g., more mixed use and better integration of different land uses) (1).
Housing (8)
Provide more affordable housing (3).
Increase housing development (3).
Promote awareness of housing affordability in Chilliwack (2).
Amenities (7)
Enhance sport and recreational facilities, particularly for youth (3).
Enhance community amenities and opportunities to serve local communities and attract new residents and
businesses (3):
Enhance recreational facilities (1).
Continue to expand public amenities to serve local communities (1).
Provide recreation and entertainment for young people (1).
Enhance and promote outdoor recreational opportunities (for locals and tourists) (1).
Education (7)
Promote education and skill training so that young people can stay within the community and find
employment locally (5).
Promote the high tech and educational sector to attract the creative class (i.e., young, skilled workers) (2).
CITY OF CHILLIWACK ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS
September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 42
Infrastructure (3)
Invest and maintain quality infrastructure, services, and maintenance (3):
Invest in better road and service infrastructure in mountain subdivisions (1).
Reduce the need for roads and transportation upgrades for new developments (1).
Ensure proper maintenance (e.g., landscaping, services) of new developments to maintain quality of life and attractiveness of areas (1).
Encourage development in other areas (2)
Promote infill development along Yale Road (1).
Develop the underutilized west side of Vedder Road as a retail space (1).
SECTION 3: DEMOGRAPHIC DATA
10) How many people does your company employ in the City of Chilliwack?
Almost all the respondents employed less than 25 people. Just over a quarter of respondents were sole
employee business and over half employed 1 – 10 people.
Response Chart Percentage Count
No Employees, Just Myself 28% 61
1 - 10 Employees 54% 119
11 - 25 Employees 16% 35
26 - 50 Employees 2% 4
Over 50 1% 2
Total Responses 221
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11) What percentage of your total employees work OUTSIDE the City of Chilliwack?
The large majority of respondents employed people solely from within the City of Chilliwack. A few companies
employed people from outside of the city, and 5 companies employed people solely from outside of Chilliwack (3
of which were sole employee businesses). The table below excludes self-employed respondents with no
employees.
Response Chart Percentages Count
0 54% 87
1 – 25 6% 11
26 – 50 6% 11
51 – 75 2% 4
76 – 100 3% 5
12) Is your company headquartered in the City of Chilliwack?
The significant majority of respondents were based within the City.
Response Chart Percentage Count
Yes 82% 182
No 18% 39
Total Responses 221
CITY OF CHILLIWACK ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS
September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 44
13) For how many years has your business operated in Chilliwack?
Respondents showed a range of years in business. The range showed approximately one quarter were in
business less than 5 years, a quarter 6 – 10 years, a quarter 11 – 20 years, and the remaining quarter more than
20 years.
Response Chart Percentage Count
Less than 1 Year 7% 15
1 to 2 Years 6% 14
3 to 5 Years 16% 35
6 to 10 Years 23% 51
11 to 20 Years 26% 57
More than 20 Years 22% 49
Total Responses 221
14) How likely is it that your business will continue to operate in Chilliwack over the next five years?
The majority of respondents were either very likely or extremely likely to continue to operate within the City over
the next 5 years.
Response Chart Percentage Count
Not at all Likely 2% 5
Somewhat Likely 10% 21
Likely 12% 26
Very Likely 29% 63
Extremely Likely 48% 106
Total Responses 221
CITY OF CHILLIWACK ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS
September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 45
15) In which of the following industries does your company operate?
The range of industries in which the respondent companies operated was broad. The highest proportion came
from the retail trades, followed by construction and professional services. The proportion of service-based
industries made up about 80% of respondents with the remaining 20% being production-related/development
sectors. These values from survey respondents generally reflect the business composition for the City (see
Figure 2-4, Section 2.4).
Overall, responses from service-based sectors reflected the general consensus. Responses from production-
based sectors placed slightly more emphasis on development incentives and slightly less on creating more local
jobs.
14%
20%
23%
14%
11%
8%
10%
Primary Production andManufacturing
Real Estate and Construction
Trades and Warehousing
Professional Services
Education and Health Care
Entertainment, Food, andAccomodation
Other
CITY OF CHILLIWACK ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS
September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 46
Response Chart Percentage Count
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting
11% 25
Mining & Oil & Gas Extraction 1% 2
Utilities 1% 2
Construction 19% 43
Manufacturing 8% 18
Wholesale Trade 6% 13
Retail Trade 22% 48
Transportation & Warehousing (48-49) 4% 9
Information & Cultural Industries 2% 4
Finance & Insurance 3% 7
Real Estate & Rental & Leasing 8% 18
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
10% 23
Management of Companies & Enterprises
2% 4
Admin. & Support, Waste Mgmt. & Remediation
0% 1
Educational Services 5% 12
Health Care & Social Assistance 11% 25
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 5% 10
Accommodation & Food Services 6% 13
Other Services (excl. Public Administration)
13% 29
Public Administration 0% 1
Total Responses 221
CITY OF CHILLIWACK ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS
September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 47
6.0 ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS
6.1 Population Population projections for the next three decades ending in 2041 are shown for Chilliwack, the FVRD, Metro
Vancouver, BC, Canada, the US and the world in Figure 6-1. Chilliwack’s projected growth of 62% is
comparable to projected FVRD and BC growth of 60%. Metro Vancouver’s projected growth of 41% would result
in a gradual and continuing shift in the Lower Mainland’s population centre eastward, bringing Chilliwack closer
to the office, industrial and trade core of the region. Growth rates in the other jurisdictions are projected to be
lower, including Canada (46%), the US (34%) and the world population at 28%.
The drivers of change are different among these jurisdictions, especially the world’s population which by
definition can only expand or contract through natural change (i.e. the difference between births and deaths).
Historically, immigration has been a larger contributor to growth in Canada than in the US, where natural
increase is predominant. In the future, BC and the Lower Mainland will continue to benefit from their previous
success in attracting international migrants to Canada.
Figure 6-1: Forecast growth in population between 2011 to 2041. 20
Note: Only includes high growth scenario for Chilliwack, BC, Canada and US
20 Source: City of Chilliwack (2012a) BC Stats (2012b).
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
170%
2011 2021 2031 2036 2041
Percent Growth
Chilliwack
FVRD
BC
Canada
MV
US
World
CITY OF CHILLIWACK ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS
September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 48
Significant population growth over the next 29 years is projected by both the City and BC Stats. As seen in Figure 6-2, Chilliwack expects an increase of 50,919 new residents between 2011 and 2041, representing an annualized growth rate of 1.7% per year. The City of Chilliwack’s projection is higher than that made by BC Stats.
Figure 6-2: Population Forecasts for the City of Chilliwack, 2011 to 2041.21
Two components will contribute to population change. As seen in Figure 6-3, in-migration will account for most of the change, while natural increase (i.e., the difference between births and deaths) will gradually diminish.
Figure 6-3: Components of forecasted population change for the City of Chilliwack, 2011 to 2036.22
21 Source: City of Chilliwack (2012a) BC Stats (2012b).
133,382
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
Population
Year
City of Chilliwack Forecast BC Stats
82,46
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September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 49
6.2 Population Age Age data provided in Table 6-1 reveals the ageing trend that has characterized Chilliwack’s population over the
last two decades is expected to continue for the foreseeable future. By 2036, 22% of the population will be over
the age of 65 years compared with 17% today. Conversely, 17% of the population will be under the age of 14,
versus 18% today. However, the ageing trend may stabilize and possibly reverse between 2021 and 2036, in
comparison with the province. This means that, starting in about ten years, the City will become progressively
younger than the BC population.
Table 6-1: Chilliwack and BC Age Characteristics, 2001 to 203623
Age 2001 2011 2021 2036
Chilliwack BC Chilliwack BC Chilliwack BC Chilliwack BC
0-14 21.37% 17.80% 18.41% 15.40% 18.00% 14.70% 16.97% 13.90%
15-24 12.73% 13.50% 13.32% 12.60% 11.35% 10.30% 11.36% 10.40%
25-44 28.11% 31.00% 25.23% 26.30% 26.12% 28.20% 24.88% 25.20%
45-64 21.92% 24.60% 26.46% 30.00% 25.57% 27.20% 24.95% 26.60%
65+ 15.87% 13.20% 16.58% 15.70% 18.97% 19.60% 21.86% 23.90%
6.3 Other Growth Indicators Projected growth trends for indicators other than population up to 2041 are presented in Table 6-2, for Chilliwack
and the FVRD. The number of households and the labour force are both expected to grow at rates that exceed
population growth. The labour force to population ratio is anticipated to grow from 49% in 2011 to 53% in 2041. If
the per capita demand for employment land in Chilliwack is held constant then there would be a proportional
increase in the demand for land over the next 30 years.
Table 6-2: Change in Key Chilliwack Indicators, 2011 to 204124
2011 2021 2031 2041
Chilliwack FVRD Chilliwack FVRD Chilliwack FVRD Chilliwack FVRD
Population (%) 100% 100% 122% 117% 142% 137% 162% 161%
Households (%) 100% 100% 126% 121% 153% 144% 183% 170%
Labour Force (%) 100% 100% 125% 121% 149% 145% 174% 170%
Labour Force to Population ratio 49% 45% 50% 46% 52% 47% 53% 47%
22 Source: City of Chilliwack (2012a) BC Stats (2012b). 23 Source: BC Stats (2012c). 24 Source: FVRD (2012).
CITY OF CHILLIWACK ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS
September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 50
6.4 Employment Land Requirements Table 6-3 updates Table 2-6 by adding a column for projected jobs in 2036. The projected jobs are either tied
to population growth or provided by the City of Chilliwack.
Table 6-3: Current and Projected Employment
Employment Category by 2-digit NAICS Code Estimation
Method 2012 Estimated
Jobs* 2041 Projected
Jobs**
Commercial
Accommodation and food services; Business, building and other support services; Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing; Professional, scientific and technical services; Retail and Wholesale
FAR, $ Improvements
17,945 30,000
Industrial
Transportation and warehousing; Construction, Manufacturing
FAR
$ Land and Improvements
4,695 7,900
Institutional
Educational services; Health care and social assistance; Information, culture and recreation; Other services
FAR 9,390 15,900
Agriculture and Primary Resources
Agriculture, forestry and mining $ Land and
Improvements 5,085 8,300
TOTAL 37,115 62,100
Notes: * Standard of Error 50% ** Job projections tied to population growth
Table 6-4 uses a simple projection model to show commercial and industrial land requirements to support future
job growth for 2036. The inputs to this model are proposed development types (retail, mall, manufacturing etc.
organized by land use sector (e.g., commercial)). The outputs are proposed floor area of developed structures
and area of land required to accommodate this growth. As institutional and agricultural uses do not grow
predictably with population, they have not been projected for this study.
Chilliwack currently has 12 hectares of commercial land available but has projected demand of 113 hectares by
2041 if current development patterns are assumed and size of parcel is not taken into account. This means that
Chilliwack could conservatively run out of commercial land by 2014 if current trends continue. A similar pattern
would occur with industrial land. There are 76 hectares of industrial land available in Chilliwack but the projected
demand is for 162 hectares at current densities and if parcel sizing is not taken into account, which means that
Chilliwack could run out of Industrial land by about 2025 under current levels of industrial land intensity.
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Table 6-4: Commercial and Industrial Current and Projected Land Requirements
Jobs Located on Each Type of Zoned Land
Assu-med
Jobs / sq.m.
New Floor Area
(sq.m.)
Business as Usual
FAR Land Use
2012 2041 2041 Projected Demand
(hectares / acres)
2012 Available Land***
(hectares / acres)
Commercial 21,802 30,000* 36 295,000 0.26 113 / 280 12 / 30
Industrial 1,777 2,918** 118 135,000 0.08 162/ 402 76 / 188
Notes: * This projection is tied to population growth ** Based on historical industrial land consumption *** As provided by City of Chilliwack
6.5 Future Challenges Chilliwack can expect above-average population, labour force and household growth over the next 30 years.
This growth will outpace regional, provincial, national, US and international benchmarks and lead to a community
that is 70% larger than it is today, with proportional increases in demand for employment lands. The demand for
commercial and industrial land could outpace the demand for employment land due to the following key factors:
Chilliwack’s population is ageing but within 10 years it is projected to start getting gradually younger. In
2036, 36% of the population will be under the age of 24 versus 24% for BC. Conversely, it will have
proportionally fewer older adults and seniors than BC. This will drive up labour force participation rates for
many years and contribute to the growing demand for local employment.
Chilliwack has higher proportions of primary, manufacturing and construction employment than either Metro
Vancouver or BC. These goods-producing industries, along with transportation, are the major users of
industrial land. If the City is to maintain its goods-producing workforce and the above-average wage rates
they generate, suitably serviced and located industrial land will be necessary to support new productive
capacity.
The Lower Mainland is land-constrained because of its geography and location next to the US border. The
region has the lowest industrial real estate vacancy rate in North America, and projected low levels of supply
coming on stream in the years ahead (Brent 2012). At the same time, future potential industrial land is under
pressure for other uses, particularly residential, park and mixed uses. In Chilliwack, a considerable portion of the
land base is protected by the Agricultural Land Reserve, which limits supply opportunities and raises land costs.
Metro Vancouver projects that its industrial land supply will be absorbed by the mid-2020s using proportional
growth projections. More intensive use and higher densities could extend that supply into the early 2030s. Under
a more aggressive growth scenario linked to heightened demand from port activities, the land supply would be
largely taken up by 2020. Greater development intensification could increase the land supply timeframe.
(Metro Vancouver 2012b).
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Based on a continuation of today’s per capita demand for employment land, the City of Chilliwack would
experience land shortages well before 2036; see Table 6-4 on page 51.
Assuming commercial development proceeds into the future at the same annual absorption rate and
density, the Chilliwack trade area (properties located in Chilliwack and Eagle Landing) has a long term
2041 demand for an estimated 113 hectares (280 acres). In 2012, the city had 190 hectares (470 acres) of
commercially zoned and developed land with an average density of 0.26 FAR. In 2012, the city had 12
hectares (30 acres) of commercially assessed land that was deemed available and feasible25 for new
commercial development. Based on a simple extrapolation of recent trends, Chilliwack will run out of
commercial land within two years. Based on land availability in Eagle Landing, the city should assume
about ten years of available commercial land. Because demands are also rising for residential and
industrial land, it is unlikely that the amount of commercially zoned land can be increased. Therefore, it will
be important for Chilliwack to increase the number of commercial jobs per unit of commercial land and/or
increase the density of commercial lands.
The expected long term 2041 demand for industrial land is 162 hectares (402 acres), while the supply is
113 hectares (280 acres). However, the existing designated supply may not be well suited to demand. The
development potential of vacant industrial areas in Chilliwack differs according to location, current uses,
accessibility, lot assembly, soil conditions, need for pre-loading and development costs. Almost all
vacancies are in the Village West and Greendale-Cattermole-Yarrow areas, whereas Chilliwack proper is
built out. The City’s industrial land vacancies may not necessarily match future market demand, in which
case new development and job creation opportunities could be lost to the City and possibly the region. The
City will need to monitor this and develop strategies to better match vacancies with future demand.
Some demand can be accommodated through more intensive use of existing designated lands.
Intensification can occur in many ways and will differ by type of industry. Improvements in supply chain
efficiency, greater use of technology inputs that improve labour productivity and adoption of shift work can
all reduce the demand for land.
Some industrial properties in Chilliwack have redevelopment potential, which could intensify use in the
future and alleviate potential supply shortages. However, specific locations, access to transportation
services and land prices will closely influence where development occurs.
Municipalities are being encouraged by regional planning bodies and the real estate industry to adopt policies
that support the redevelopment and intensification of industrial lands, including the following:
Reform industrial zoning bylaw provisions that restrict industrial intensification potential (such as overly
restrictive building height limits, building setbacks, floor area or site coverage limits);
Reduce development guidelines that are for aesthetic purposes only;
25 Feasible is defined as land that is either serviced or near services and land that is suitable for this type of development type (e.g., not hillside or ALR land).
CITY OF CHILLIWACK ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS
September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 53
Pre-zone lands for higher density industrial uses (manufacturing vs. storage);
Promote business expansion that leverages more intensive land use and inform land owners of
opportunities related to un-used and under-utilized properties;
Prioritize local infrastructure that clusters and encourages industrial development;
Use land assembly and land swaps to facilitate relocation and land development; and
Incentivize industrial intensification (Metro Vancouver 2012b).
7.0 ECONOMIC PROSPECTS In this chapter, we present an economic vision statement and a list of key economic goals and strategies. These
are designed to provide an economic roadmap for Chilliwack over the next 25 years and help provide a strong
economic foundation for the development of Chilliwack’s Official Community Plan. These goals and strategies
have been synthesized from the baseline economic assessment, the stakeholder workshop and focus groups,
the business survey and the economic forecasts.
7.1 Vision Statement Below we outline a short and a longer economic vision statement for the City of Chilliwack. These statements
consider the planning direction for CEPCO and address development and land use, employment and business
climate, the environment and community. They also draw heavily on the vision statements crafted by the
workshop participants in section 6.1.3.
Short vision statement:
“Chilliwack is a healthy, safe, prosperous, complete, and diverse community that cares for its
citizens and the environment and has a strong mix of amenities, services, recreation
opportunities and natural assets to attract and retain businesses that create well-paying jobs
in manufacturing, tourism, agriculture, and other sectors through ongoing skills training and
applied technology.”
Long vision statement:
“Chilliwack is a healthy, affordable, prosperous, and complete community where citizens and
the environment are cared for and cherished.
Chilliwack’s services, amenities, education, training, recreational opportunities and natural
areas are key to attracting and retaining businesses and people looking for high quality
employment opportunities.
Diverse employment and income opportunities are abundant in sectors that take advantage
of Chilliwack’s locational and strategic advantages. Key growth sectors include
manufacturing, tourism, agriculture, and service sectors.”
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7.2 Goals Taking into consideration all the feedback we received and information we obtained from all sources, we have
identified eight high level goals for Chilliwack. The backdrop for these goals is that the City is about to become
one of the fastest growing municipalities in Canada.
BUSINESS
1) Position and promote Chilliwack as the Lower Mainland’s sustainable business community.
2) Enhance and expand Chilliwack’s business and investment climate.
PLACE
3) Continue to revitalize the downtown core.
4) Increase employment intensity on commercial and industrial land.
PEOPLE
5) Contribute to a learning economy through workforce development.
6) Create economic participation opportunities for disadvantaged residents.
SUSTAINABILITY
7) Improve transportation infrastructure for employees and visitors.
8) Become a model community in advancing the green economy.
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7.3 Objectives and Supporting Actions For each of the above mentioned goals, we present some key objectives and supporting actions.
GOAL 1: Position and Promote Chilliwack as the Lower Mainland’s Sustainable Business Community
Objective 1A: Create a Community-Wide Brand Identity
Rationale: Chilliwack is being marketed and promoted in many different forums, to different audiences and
economic sectors and by multiple organizations in the private, public and non-government sectors. Any
organization that is engaged in communications activities or attempting to draw in visitors, investment,
businesses or people is part of this market environment. Workshop and focus group participants felt that there
could be a more cohesive and coordinated approach to community-wide promotion by developing a brand
identity that could be used by all organizations in Chilliwack. The concept would be to build a unique focus that is
differentiated from other, nearby regions. It would blend what Chilliwack does well, with what citizens and visitors
value, into something that becomes a unique selling proposition for Chilliwack over time. The urban-rural-
agricultural-wilderness mix could be the foundation of the brand and create buy-in from stakeholders. The more
the brand is used, the more it instills a sense of value and distinction among different audiences. The City has
recently undertaken a brand positioning exercise and developed new graphics standards. This would be a good
opportunity for creating more awareness, use and coordination of co-branding in the community.
Expected Outcomes:
Support by the City, CEPCO and the business community.
Consistent application and use by stakeholders.
Improved awareness of Chilliwack as a visitor and business destination.
Supporting Actions:
Promote and encourage use of the new brand positioning.
Involve a wide range of government, business and civic leaders.
Develop the brand based on an inventory of true differentiators and compelling attributes.
Consistently demonstrate the brand in the communications, marketing and promotional activities of the City
and its partners.
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Objective 1B: Promote Chilliwack as a Destination for Businesses, Visitors and New Residents
Rationale: Almost every element of economic development planning is supported by the communication of
messages and ideas to internal and external audiences. Traditionally, communities would promote themselves to
attract new businesses whereas today it is important to recognize that a much broader range of activities are
needed to build productive capacity, employment activity and wealth. This could mean targeting private and
public investments required to build new infrastructure and services, or perhaps increasing visitors to the
community to supplement local expenditures by residents. Attracting new residents that will enrich the labour
force and keep neighbourhoods, schools and civic affairs vibrant is clearly associated with community
perceptions, awareness and marketing. The community consultation process suggested that Chilliwack had
done a good job in the past positioning itself as a business-friendly community, and this approach could be
expanded to generate more interest and participation in business development.
Expected Outcomes:
Priority targets and messaging that contributes to overall community and economic development objectives.
Better awareness of Chilliwack as a location option.
Increase in number of location and development enquiries.
Supporting Actions
1) Support organizations and marketing partnerships that use the community brand, and that contribute to
diversification in key economic base sectors, including agriculture, tourism and manufacturing.
2) Continue to promote a business-friendly government with cooperative city staff and lower tax rates.
3) Promote the growth potential of Chilliwack by advertising the availability of land, affordable housing,
business-friendly environment, and desirable community attributes.
4) Promote densification, infill and brownfield opportunities to the real estate industry that reduces sprawl,
makes more efficient use of existing infrastructure and preserves agricultural land in conformance to
community expectations.
5) Provide more community amenities such as green space, bike paths, walking trails, hockey rinks, sports
fields, health care facilities, etc. that attract families and professionals to the community.
6) Promote agri-tourism, eco-tourism, and heritage tourism as unique assets of Chilliwack.
7) Continue to expand and innovate within the service sector, given that it accounts for over 85% of the labour
force.
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GOAL 2: Enhance and Expand Chilliwack’s Business and Investment Climate
Objective 2A: Strengthen the Local Business Climate
Rationale: The business climate comprises economic, social, regulatory and political elements that collectively influence business activity. The regulatory environment, such as taxation and trade policy, as well as the attitude of government, First Nations and institutions focused on business activity are factors as well. The more critical aspects of business climate include costs (e.g., land, labour, taxes, other inputs, regulatory) and non-cost factors (e.g., quality of life, location, infrastructure, attitudes toward business). At the local level, the flexibility of the development approval process, construction costs, operating costs, access to infrastructure, availability of capital and the quality of the local labour force are important. These issues were consistently mentioned during the consultation process. The extent to which a community’s political and policy environment is seen to support or deter business development is the measure of business climate. Business climate is important because it affects how companies inside and outside the community perceive business and financial risk and as such it will affect investment flows and job-creating activities.
Expected Outcomes:
Continued high ranking in regional benchmarking reports.
Competitive business and development costs.
Broad recognition of Chilliwack as a favourable investment option.
Supporting Actions:
1) Monitor and evaluate bi-annual NAIOP (National Association for Industrial and Office Parks) rankings and
their associated benchmarks in order to maintain Chilliwack’s high rankings in development approval times
and costs.
2) Continue to work closely with CEPCO on streamlining and coordinating the municipal approval process that
encourages business expansion, retention and attraction in priority zones and sector. This would include:
Expediting access to accurate regional information and knowledge;
Assisting with project permitting;
Advising on property and building selection;
Assisting with accessing local goods and services;
Co-ordinating community based business networks; and
Referring service and technical assistance enquiries to appropriate agencies.
3) Investigate the feasibility of incentives for developments that exceed job creation thresholds. Incentives
have already been successfully applied in the City’s Revitalization Tax Exemption and new programs could
be targeted at specific areas or industries. Potential incentives could be applied to a range of fees including
property taxes, permit fees, development cost charges, and strategic land assembly.
4) Maintain tax competitiveness and balance between industrial and residential classes.
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5) Identify and amend by-laws that unnecessarily impede new development without generating material
benefits to the community.
6) Consider adopting fast-tracking policies based on sustainability and green building criteria.
Objective 2B: Support the Retention and Expansion of Businesses in the City
Rationale: Most new employment in a community is created by existing businesses and entrepreneurs rather than new businesses moving in. Business retention and expansion recognizes this potential by focusing on enterprises already in the City or region, encouraging them to expand, diversify or enhance their competitiveness. For those businesses still in the planning stages, entrepreneurship development can facilitate access to capital, training, technical assistance and business networks that are critical to start-ups. The payoff for the community is job stability or growth, a stable and expanding local supplier base, greater community income and wealth (particularly if those businesses are trade-oriented) and a more diversified tax base. A stable, healthy and growing business base also contributes to the community’s social and cultural health.
Expected Outcomes:
Employment growth that matches population growth.
Diversification into emerging and expanding sectors.
An active and vibrant local business network.
Supporting Actions:
9) Support the business retention and expansion programs of CEPCO and encourage partnerships with other
key players, including the Chilliwack Agriculture Commission, Downtown Business Improvement
Association, the Chamber of Commerce, Stó:lō First Nations and Community Futures South Fraser
Increase local business retention, create biz incubators.
10) Investigate shared planning and economic development policies with the Stó:lō First Nations. Agreements
could encompass joint land use policies and planning or be focused on referrals to accommodate site
location enquiries from outside the community.
11) Provide research support to CEPCO and industry partners to identify key development issues and establish
ongoing communication with the development sector and major land owners.
12) Maintain and enhance the research and development capacity in agriculture and other major industry.
13) Work with education providers and economic developers to develop local policies to encourage
entrepreneurship. Key policies include:
Increasing the focus on entrepreneurship in the K-12 education system.
Encouraging a culture supportive of entrepreneurship.
Supporting the delivery of entrepreneurship programs among partnering economic development
agencies.
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14) Explore the feasibility of a small business incubator with a sector focus such as technology, agriculture or
tourism. An incubator would require the collaboration of economic development agencies and a clear proof-
of-concept.
15) Encourage programs among CEPCO, the Chamber of Commerce and local merchants that target a
reduction in spending leakages to the US, Abbotsford and other communities in the region.
16) Work with CEPCO to investigate the viability of local capital pools, focusing on best practices in other
jurisdictions, clarifying regulatory hurdles and gauging local capacity and interest.
Objective 2C: Support the Attraction of New Businesses and Residents to the Community
Rationale: Chilliwack will need to attract new businesses, entrepreneurs and investment from the private and
public sectors if it is to maintain or increase its employment to population ratio. Regional growth will be a
contributing factor by virtue of Chilliwack’s location in the Lower Mainland and its reasonably priced commercial
and industrial land. But the community should be proactive in targeting industries it believes can complement the
existing economic base and meet other community development goals outlined in this plan. Based on the
feedback received in the focus groups, planning workshop and business survey, the City should be seeking to
attract businesses in tourism, agriculture, manufacturing and knowledge-intensive industry. New retail and
service businesses that contribute to increased capture of household spending would also contribute to overall
community development.
Expected Outcomes:
New head offices or satellites of major companies that match Chilliwack’s strengths and diversify the job
and tax base.
Supporting Actions
1) Identify opportunities for attracting direct and indirect supply industries that support major industry in the
City. The expansion of supply industries lowers business costs of primary production, manufacturing and
construction, reduces the commercial use of roadways and other transportation infrastructure and
contributes to cluster development, including the feasibility of value-added production.
2) Work with Tourism Chilliwack and CEPCO to attract more tourism operators that would expand the product
base, open up packaging opportunities, expand the tourism season, take better advantage of underutilized
assets (such as the Fraser River) and add to Chilliwack’s overall destination appeal.
3) Lobby, promote and facilitate the establishment, attraction and recruitment of public facilities, including but
not limited to transit services, health facilities and education services.
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GOAL 3: Continue to Revitalize the Downtown Core
Objective 3A: Encourage Redevelopment that will Attract Anchor Tenants and New Residents
Rationale: A number of distressed properties and vacant buildings exist in the downtown core, which make it
unattractive as the centre of commerce that it once was. There is a strong need for the city to create conditions
that will entice developers to renovate or build new commercial and multifamily residential buildings that will
attract anchor retailers and downtown residents. The City has recognized this need and has established a
Downtown Task Force that has produced a downtown Land Use and Development Plan. It also developed a
design concept for a city block in the downtown core where the City already owns ten lots and made
recommendations for revitalization incentives. The Downtown Chilliwack Business Improvement Association is
also working to improve the downtown core. All parties involved recognize that there is no quick way to address
issues of concern in the downtown core and that the revitalization process is a long term, multi-jurisdictional
initiative.
Expected Outcomes:
Redevelopment of buildings that preserve and/or enhance the character of the downtown.
Attraction of key retailers that will, in turn, attract local customers and tourists.
New residents moving in to multifamily buildings and single family homes in or near the core.
Supporting Actions
1) Restrict high density residential development and mixed commercial-residential developments to the
downtown core so that vacant lands in the downtown core get redeveloped first. It should be noted that this
can be politically sensitive because it requires turning down development proposals elsewhere.
2) Work with community and business groups to make the downtown core more attractive by increasing
human and funding resources for landscaping, small gathering places, and other aesthetic improvements.
3) Provide financial incentives for developers to redevelop properties in the downtown core, and potentially to
landlords to reduce empty storefronts.
4) In key areas of the downtown core, make unused brownfield sites development-ready by demolishing old
buildings that have no heritage conservation values and remediating soils. Encourage non-heritage old
buildings to be “de-constructed” by taking out all the valuable materials and using them in redevelopment
projects or selling the materials to third parties. Building deconstruction firms create local jobs and reduce
waste going to landfill or demolition and construction sites.
5) Create a community development corporation and small business incubator to encourage entrepreneurship
in the downtown core using local sources of finance.
6) Allocate senior City staff resource to oversee implementation of the downtown revitalization plan that
follows from and builds on the Downtown Land Use and Development Plan.
7) Develop a long term funding strategy to support implementation of the downtown revitalization initiatives.
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Objective 3B: Make the Downtown a centre of Civic Activity that Attracts Residents and Tourists
Rationale: Run-down areas of the downtown core have created conditions for property crime, drug abuse, and
homelessness that make it undesirable as a community gathering place or tourist destination.
Expected Outcomes:
Net positive perceptions among residents about holding events in the downtown core.
An enhance sense of civic pride about the downtown core.
Improved image and profile of downtown Chilliwack.
Supporting Actions
1) Increase the number of downtown events as has been the recent trend.
2) Develop programs and policies to encourage more activities and events in the downtown core.
3) Develop a marketing program to promote the downtown as a great place to experience for residents and a
good place to invest for investors and developers.
4) Continue assembling land in the downtown block bounded by Young Road, Yale Road, and Princess
Avenue. Concept drawings have been prepared for this block, which include a public urban park
surrounded by an office building and a few residential condominiums with ground floor commercial space
for retail stores and restaurants. The concept also included an outdoor performance area.
5) Encourage the establishment of downtown education facilities. The City already has a good start in this
direction with the recently approved University of Fraser Valley (UFV) business education centre, which will
be located at five corners in the former Bank of Montreal (BMO) building.
6) Continue to work to improve public safety.
7) Promote the heritage character of the downtown through conservation and character design guidelines.
8) Identify, and implement infrastructure (if required), a suitable place for a farmer’s market and encourage the
Chilliwack Farmers market to relocate to the downtown core. A careful plan will need to be developed at an
appropriate scale as previous attempts have not been successful.
9) Identify those areas of the downtown core that are attractive to local residents and regional visitors (e.g. the
intersection of Mill Street and Wellington Street) and work to improve the areas just adjacent them.
10) Continue to advance the City’s current program of assembling commercial properties that can be turned
into future comprehensive mixed use developments.
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Objective 3C: Encourage Downtown Residents and Businesses to Share Resources & Collaborate
Rationale: A broad societal trend is emerging throughout the world called “collaborative consumption.” The
general idea, also referred to as the Sharing Economy, is that by sharing or renting underused resources, often
using the new websites to efficiently allocate those resources, people can meet their resource needs at a far
lower cost. Craigslist and EBay are older examples of this trend. New ones include a range of peer-to-peer
lending sites that allow individuals and businesses to rent their own office space, homes, cars, and so on26
Expected Outcomes:
More community-building connections between downtown businesses and/or residents.
Reduced costs for participants.
More efficient use of resources leading to reduced energy consumption and waste.
Supporting Actions
Facilitate a workshop for downtown businesses to explore ways to better collaborate to meet their resource
needs at a lower cost. Topics they could explore include group buying of office supplies, sharing of office,
storage, and /or retail space.
1) Support the development of live/work studios as part of comprehensive neighbourhood planning.
2) Facilitate a community workshop for downtown residents to explore ways in which they could better
collaborate to reduce their costs and building community. This could include tool sharing libraries;
development of websites for peer-to-peer renting of items like ladders, power washers, snow blowers,
canoes, row boats, bicycles, etc.; bulk buying of wholesale groceries.
3) Encourage the development of and/or help to promote a ride-sharing and carpooling website for community
members throughout Chilliwack.
4) Encourage the development of a Craigslist equivalent for Chilliwack – there is a Fraser Valley Craigslist, but
nothing specific to Chilliwack.
5) Create a “co-housing-like" sharing/caring culture and community spirit in the downtown core and adjacent
neighbourhoods.
26 .Examples include: airbnb.com, where people rent out their own homes; Getaround.com where people rent their own cars (not yet available in Canada); renttherunway.com where people rent their own ball gowns or wedding dresses; rentmyparkingspace.com where people rent their parking spaces; liquidspace.com where people can rent out their own extra office space; looosecubes.com where people can rent desks and cubicles in offices; taskrabbit.com where people can hire a local handyman (or woman) that has been peer reviewed.
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GOAL 4: Increase Employment Intensity and Density on Commercial and Industrial Land
Objective 4A: Increase the Number of Jobs per unit of Commercial Land and/or Increase the Density of New Commercial Development
Rationale: As discussed in Section 6.5, current demand trends indicate that the City will run out of commercial
land within ten years (give or take a few years depending on how quickly the oversupply of retail space at Eagle
Landing is used up) and industrial land within 12 years. To ensure that the City does not run out of commercial
land over the next 10 years, it will need to increase the FAR of new and existing sites to 0.75 - 1.25. To achieve
this density, Chilliwack will need to promote and produce new forms of commercial development – commercial
development that is more typical in larger centres in and around Metro Vancouver. In general terms, to achieve
this density, built form characteristics include: multi-level commercial and/or office establishments, mixed use
development (commercial at grade, office and/or residential on 2+ stories), or large floor plate commercial built
over structured parking. These built form varieties tend to be developed by a smaller pool of specialized
developers (e.g., mixed use developers are different than large floor plate commercial developers) and
construction costs are higher. Finally, municipal parking requirements coupled with developer / business-driven
parking expectations, means that commercial establishments are heavily constrained on their sites. Strategies
for managing parking will be required to achieve this density. This form of development, however, is very
suitable and a preferred form of development for creating liveable, highly walkable, amenity-rich mixed use
centres.
Expected Outcomes:
Increased number of commercial jobs within the city limits.
Availability of commercial land much farther into the future or greater commercial capacity from existing land further into the future.
A net increase multi-level commercial and/or office establishments, mixed use development and large floor plate commercial built over structured parking.
Supporting Actions:
1) Create awareness in the community and with developers of the issues raised in this study related to
commercial land supply and economic development objectives through focused messaging, outreach and
workshops as part of the OCP review process. Creating a strategy and implementing policies and design
guidelines (per below actions) for maximizing commercial land availability will firstly require awareness of
the issues and, secondly, contributions from a range of stakeholders.
2) Complete a detailed market assessment of commercial land demand to better understand projected future
growth for land demand.
3) Promote growth in the local service sector (vs. retail) to support a transition to more dense commercial
developments. Identify specific types of commercial enterprises that hire more employees per unit of
commercial land (e.g., call centres, offices) and encourage the establishment and growth of those
enterprises.
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4) Revise zoning requirements (density, height, parking, etc.) and development permit guidelines to transition
commercial developments towards higher density forms of development with an overall target of 0.75 FSR.
The City could provide guidance on the best higher density forms to create more developer buy-in.
5) Identify locations in the community where focused high density commercial, mixed use development could
be accommodated that also support other community planning objectives such as affordable housing,
active transportation, revitalization, energy conservation, greenhouse gas emissions reductions and
placemaking. The OCP process is the ideal time for assessing and identifying strategic growth areas.
6) Work with strategic partners and/or developers to develop showcase projects – projects that stand as
beacons by demonstrating the realm of ‘possible’ as it pertains to intensified commercial development.
Strategic partners may also be helpful for co-creating or testing new zoning or development permit
guidelines, financial incentives or other planning and development tools to achieve this objective.
7) Make use of strategically located municipal land assets to develop and showcase preferred forms of mixed
use / commercial developments through partnerships, land disposition and/or Request for Proposal
processes. The assembled site in the downtown core is a good example of this type of leadership.
8) Encourage commercial development in areas that are accessible by non-car travel modes and genuinely
reduce parking space requirements.
9) Provide incentives or establish requirements for developers to create below ground or multi-level parking
facilities.
10) Allow commercial activities on industrial zoned lands where there is underused space that cannot be used
for industrial activities (e.g., vacant upper floor space in an industrial building). As not all types of
commercial activity are appropriate on industrial lands, the City should provide guidance on eligible types of
commercial activity.
Objective 4B: Intensify Existing Commercial Lands
Rationale: Existing commercial lands are developed on average to a density of 0.26 FSR. As Chilliwack grows
and faces growing land constraints, predominant commercial areas that exist today (e.g., Sardis) would benefit
from shifting towards higher density forms of commercial/mixed use development that, in turn, support other
community objectives such as greater walkability, higher transit frequency and affordable housing opportunities.
As these areas change and include a broader range of uses, land will be required for more finely-grained road
networks and/or new park and community spaces which will limit the total development potential. Many
communities have begun intensifying existing commercial sites, using parking lots to support more development
as an example. Intensifying current lands will ultimately reduce the rate of land consumption.
One possible threat relates to conversion of commercial lands. Since demand for residential development is
high and there are many available locations for residential development (e.g., downtown condominiums or view
properties), it is not expected that commercial lands will be converted to exclusively residential. This situation
has already happened in the past.
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At Vedder Crossing along Vedder Road, some "prime" commercial parcels were rezoned in the 1990s and
developed as townhouse and apartment projects because the residential market was booming whereas the
commercial market was not. This has resulted in some gaps and inhibited the development of a more cohesive
business district. Those gaps have also limited commercial development largely to strip malls as opposed to
main street, continuous storefront development.
Expected Outcomes:
Higher density commercial lands.
A net reduction in land consumption for new commercial development.
Supporting Actions:
1) Identify strategic areas / lands ideal for intensification and engage land owners to investigate intensification
opportunities. This may require changes to zoning and/or development guidelines to achieve the desired
outcomes.
2) Work with strategic partners and/or developers to develop showcase intensification projects and/or develop
transition strategies for intensifying existing commercial developments. Strategic partners may also be
helpful for co-creating or testing new zoning or development permit guidelines, financial incentives or other
planning and development tools to achieve this objective.
3) Support intense commercial land development by reviewing and amending bylaws, where necessary, to
reduce limitations on building heights, building site coverage, and floor area ratios.
4) Consider amending parking requirements within bylaws that may limit development potential of sites by
reducing requirements, permitting greater offsite parking, phased implementation of parking, and/or rooftop
and/or underground parking. With respect to onsite traffic, explore allowing vehicle parking, loading and
maneuvering on select public roads to serve industrial users.
5) For large sites, encourage phased developments so as to maximize the long term development potential of
the site over time.
6) For commercial areas located on high value land and/or in close proximity to the downtown core,
encourage growth of small scale businesses by increasing the amount of small lots (through subdivision
and/or revised zoning provisions), supporting increased site coverage (e.g. ‘zero lot line’).
7) Explore possible incentives to encourage commercial intensification, such as:
a. Facilitate / expedite the approval process for reviews of high intensity development.
b. Offer greater development rights for larger sites to encourage land assembly.
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Objective 4C: Increase the Number of Jobs per Unit of Industrial Land
Rationale: In 2012, the city had 76 hectares (188 acres) of industrially
assessed land that was deemed available and feasible27 for
development. Assuming historic rates of absorption of 6 hectares (15
acres) per year, Chilliwack has about 12 years of industrial
development capacity remaining. However, this time period should be
viewed as a theoretical maximum. Shortages will be felt much sooner
because of mismatches in land size, location and other factors.
Because demands are also rising for residential and commercial land,
it is unlikely that the amount of industrially zoned land can be
increased. However, industry recognizes there is a looming industrial
land availability crisis in the Lower Mainland. As such, there is
emerging dialogue about the need to intensify industrial lands. Major participants in the dialogue include Metro
Vancouver, UDI, NAIOP, local governments, major developers, etc.
Because industrial development in Chilliwack is generally low density, often driven by a need for parking for work
vehicles or trailers, equipment storage and/or other unique needs related to operations, there may be
opportunities for intensification. Many communities have begun championing higher density forms of industrial
development. Metro Vancouver recently commissioned an analysis of industrial land intensification, which
included a number of recommendations for municipalities (Eric Vance and Associates, 2011). Metro Vancouver
also published a report on best practices for the intensive use of agricultural land (Metro Vancouver, 2012). The
city would benefit from participating in the dialogue to learn about emerging responses to this issue and/or
developing responses that can be shared with others.
Expected Outcomes:
Increased number of industrial jobs within the city limits.
Higher density industrial lands.
A net reduction in land consumption for new industrial development.
Supporting Actions:
1) Create awareness in the community and with developers of the issues raised in this study related to
industrial land supply and economic development objectives through focused messaging, outreach and
workshops as part of the OCP review process. Creating a strategy and implementing policies and design
guidelines (per below actions) for maximizing industrial land availability will firstly require awareness of the
issues and, secondly, contributions from a range of stakeholders.
27 Feasible is defined as land that is either serviced or near services and land that is suitable for this type of development type (e.g. not hillside or ALR land).
Industrial Land Supply is a growing concern throughout the BC Lower Mainland. In response, Metro Vancouver published a discussion paper highlighting issues and research findings, many of which informed actions in this study. “Best Practices for the Intensive Use of Industrial Land” (Oct. 2012) can be found online.
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2) Complete a detailed market assessment of industrial land demand to better understand projected future
growth for land demand.
3) Engage local landowners and developer to host a sub-regional discussion about industrial land
intensification and co-create strategies that work for businesses, landowners and municipalities. Similarly,
participate in Lower Mainland dialogues on the same topic. There needs to be close collaboration between
developers and researchers and between the public and private sector
4) Provide strategies for industrial firms to use vertical space more effectively, which can lead to greater
employment intensity.
5) Identify opportunities to create multi-level industrial buildings as was often done 100 years ago.
6) Work with strategic partners and/or developers to develop showcase projects – projects that stand as
beacons and that demonstrate the realm of ‘possible’. Strategic partners may also be helpful for co-creating
or testing new zoning or development permit guidelines, financial incentives or other planning and
development tools to achieve this objective.
7) Support a transition to higher density forms of industrial developments. This includes encouraging intense
industrial land development by reviewing and amending bylaws, where necessary, to reduce limitations on
building height, building site coverage, and floor area ratios, or reduce excessive building setbacks and
landscaping that effectively reduce building size potential. Also consider permitting greater accessory office
and retail uses that support growth in local employment.
8) Consider amending parking requirements within bylaws that may limit development potential of sites by
reducing requirements, permitting greater offsite parking, phased implementation of parking, and/or rooftop
and/or underground parking. The city might also permit ‘shared’ parking opportunities for multi-tenant or
industrial parks as a means to maximize development potential. With respect to onsite traffic, explore
allowing vehicle parking, loading and maneuvering on select public roads to serve industrial users.
9) For large sites, encourage phased developments so as to maximize the long term development potential of
the site over time.
10) For warehouses, develop development permit guidelines that support greater building heights and
increased use of space efficient automated / racking storage equipment.
11) For industrial areas located on high value land and/or in close proximity to the downtown core, encourage
growth of small scale light industrial users by increasing the amount of small lots (through subdivision
and/or revised zoning provisions), supporting increased site coverage (e.g. ‘zero lot line’) and permitting
multi-level developments (e.g. retail at grade, storage on second level, office eon third level).
12) Explore possible incentives to encourage industrial intensification, such as:
Facilitate / expedite the approval process for reviews of high intensity industrial development.
Offer greater development rights for larger sites to encourage land assembly.
In order to encourage and not deter development, possibly reduce municipal Development Cost Charges (DCCs) for density constructed beyond the typical industrial building density, or charge municipal DCCs based on land area or ground level building floor area only, rather than total building floor area.
CITY OF CHILLIWACK ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS
September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 68
13) Promote growth in the industrial sectors with high employment density requirements to support a transition
to denser industrial developments. Identify the types of industrial enterprises that hire more employees per
unit of industrial land (e.g., certain types of manufacturing firms, warehouse logistics firms) and encourage
the establishment and growth of those enterprises.
14) Identify underused industrial lands and encourage the owners to share that space with complementary
parties.
15) Provide incentives for industrial owners to use their lands and buildings more intensively.
16) Attract small scale light industrial firms to Chilliwack as they tend to create more employment per unit of
land and have more flexibility to co-locate with larger industrial firms or to take advantage of small in-fill
areas.
17) Encourage and promote smaller “incubator” industrial subdivisions, The city already has a number of
smaller industrial lot subdivisions in Village West designed for small-to-medium industries. There are also a
few general industrial buildings design-built for small industrial tenants or condominium ownership.
18) Allow industries with a significant workforce that are involved in R&D, engineering, design and/or sales to
locate under the same roof or in close proximity in situations where zone would prohibit this.
19) Pre-zone lands for higher density industrial uses. Currently, all of Village West and Cattermole are industrial
zones, except for those parcels that have been rezoned for highway commercial uses (car dealers, gas
stations and motels) at the request of the property owners/users.
20) Make use of strategically located municipal land assets to develop and showcase preferred forms of
industrial developments through partnerships, land disposition and/or Request for Proposal processes, The
City has one parcel in Village West that might be able to serve this purpose. In the 1990s the City
assembled land and developed the Chilliwack Estate Business Park. CEPCO was formed to recruit
industries and manage the business park. Perhaps the City do that again, this time for a specific industrial
target. This has some political sensitivities because existing industrial park owners may view a city
sponsored new industrial park project as "unfair competition" with a negative impact on the private
industrial parks' market prospects.
21) Identify locations in the community where focused, higher density industrial development (e.g., ‘zero lot
line’) could be accommodated such as near the downtown (e.g., city-serving industrial such as printers,
coffee roasters, uniform cleaning services, etc.). It might be worthwhile to develop a “downtown industrial”
strategy.
22) Identify opportunities to support small lot industrial development that is near urban areas or close to other
major industrial operators (e.g., major manufacturing facility, agriculture) that have low parking, setback
and/or other development constraints.
23) Reduce rear and side yard building setback requirements where there will be no negative impact on
adjacent users. Permit shared driveways with cross easements between two adjacent industrial property
users.
CITY OF CHILLIWACK ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS
September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 69
GOAL 5: Contribute to a Learning Economy through Workforce Development
Objective 5A: Assist in Developing and Delivering Training and Education Programs
Rationale: Chilliwack has significant post-secondary education capacity, a labour force with above-average
trade certification and opportunities in emerging sectors that will demand increasingly strong labour market skills.
This will require capacity and effort to train individuals for specific jobs and industries. Training may refer to
post-secondary skill development but it can also include basic skills such as literacy and numeracy that add to
the labour force and reduce the need for government assistance programs. The goal of training programs is to
improve the quality and skill sets of individuals, to place them in jobs, and help businesses find an employee in
line with their needs.
Expected Outcomes:
Greater post-secondary education attainment levels and a higher skill level.
Higher labour force participation rates.
Enhanced labour supply that meets the needs of local employers.
New knowledge economy enterprises and more incubator development projects.
Supporting Actions:
1) Work with service providers and the education sector to support training and education programs in the
following areas:
Technology/knowledge industries.
Self-employment.
Trades.
Health.
Youth.
2) Work with the Chilliwack Agriculture Commission, Investment Agriculture Foundation and agriculture
producers to encourage training and education of young farmers and prospective farmers. The promotion of
agricultural education, careers and business development opportunities will be needed if the sector is to
maintain its contributions to the local economy.
3) Re-energize and promote the Canada Education Park plan. New proposals and ideas are needed beyond
current University of Fraser Valley activities. Advanced education is critical to enhancing the knowledge
economy in Chilliwack.
4) Encourage the development of a University of Fraser Valley downtown campus and other downtown
educational institutions.
CITY OF CHILLIWACK ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS
September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 70
Objective 5B: Create a Learning Community
Rationale: If Chilliwack is to make the transition to a modern, knowledge-based economy, it will need to create
an environment that is attractive to skilled workers and their families. In addition to attractive job opportunities,
quality of life factors, including environmental quality, sustainability ethic, availability of quality education
institutions, public safety and health care system play a role attracting and keeping a skilled workforce.
Chilliwack already has a number of Learning Community / Knowledge Economy assets. These include the UFV,
Canada Education Park (which includes the BC Justice Institute, RCMP's national training centre, and
land/buildings/concept in support of industrial research and development.
Expected Outcomes:
Development of public infrastructure that encourages learning, including expansion of the UFV campus and
programs.
Recognition as a community that values technology and knowledge-led development.
Increased support for "Learning Enterprises".
Supporting Actions:
1) Prioritize the attraction of new residents that complement the community’s growth objectives, including
families, young professionals and skilled workers.
2) Provide support and capitalize on UFV’s trades and technology facility. This could include establishing new
relationships and creating joint initiatives to support small enterprise and business development activity.
3) Work with UFV on attracting and accommodating students from outside the region, including international
students. Encourage marketing partnerships between CEPCO, Tourism Chilliwack and UFV that promote
community living.
4) Encourage the use of immigrant worker and entrepreneur programs that match the needs of the
community. Leverage federal and provincial programs by working with local companies who are unable to
satisfy their labour requirements in the domestic labour market. This requires oversea promotion and
search for the right partners, and could start with the larger sources of Canadian immigrants. BC already
has a significant "international student" secondary school education "enterprise". A similar opportunity may
also exist for a university that caters to the immigrants or potential immigrants from these countries, or
Canadians that intend to do business in these countries.
5) Maintain or enhance community services that improve living conditions and local quality of life. Issues
identified during the consultation program included providing a safe community with adequate health
services, addressing the decline in provincial social services and partnering and supporting NGOs and
charities to fill service gaps.
CITY OF CHILLIWACK ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS
September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 71
6) Encourage inter-generational learning and living by engaging youth and seniors in integrated lifestyle living
(village environments). Inter-generational learning is meant to address the progressive ageing of the
population and the growing gap between generations as a result of new technologies. Seniors are provided
with opportunities to remain active in society and at the same time strengthen their contribution to the
learning of younger generations. This can be accomplished through the application of new forms of
information and communications technology (e.g. social networking, new media) that connects generations.
7) Prioritize amenity and infrastructure development, especially in downtown, that will increase the appeal of
knowledge-based development and clustering. A research and educational precinct in cooperation with
UFV and business incubation capacity were suggestions made during the community consultation process.
8) Investigate the feasibility of designating Chilliwack as a Smart City. A smart city is one that leverages
knowledge communication, social and environmental capital with traditional forms of infrastructure to
optimize competitiveness and economic development. The European Union defines smart cities according
to six characteristics, economy, people, governance, mobility, environment and living (TUDelft 2007).
Creating an environment of innovation, prosperity and growth based on a smart city infrastructure would
position the City as an attractive investment alternative. The Smart City designation was developed by the
Intelligent Community Forum. Each year 21 cities are designated. Eighteen Canadian cities have received
the designation but only one from BC (Vancouver).
CITY OF CHILLIWACK ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS
September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 72
GOAL 6: Foster a Caring Community
Objective 6A: Assist in Developing and Delivering Training and Entrepreneurship Programs
Rationale: Many of the participants talked about their desire for Chilliwack to be a caring community that
ensures that all community members can take advantage of economic prospects.
Expected Outcomes:
Greater economic opportunities for residents of all incomes classes not just those who are more well off.
Reduced demand for costly services to meet the needs of disadvantaged residents.
Supporting Actions:
1) Provide entrepreneurship programs for low income individuals, especially youth, combined with micro-loans
and mentor support to identify and pursue self-employment opportunities. Chilliwack used to have a
Community Futures program funded by the Human Resources Development Canada but it was
discontinued. It would be worthwhile to explore if this program could be revived.
2) Create a small business incubation program for local residents combined with local sources of financing
and business assistance.
3) Identify green jobs suitable to low income or disadvantaged individuals (e.g., commercial garden weeding
and harvesting, building deconstruction, waste and recyclables collection on bicycles, home
weather-stripping and insulation services).
4) Encourage entry level job skills and training programs. A potential partnership could be developed with
Chilliwack Community Services to provide basic/life skill training, job search, completion of high school
education / trade training courses. Such a partnership would create connections with underprivileged youth
and young families.
5) Create a job skills bank to match local employer needs with available worker skills.
6) Collaborate with local educational institutions to identify training and education opportunities targeted to low
income and disadvantaged individuals.
7) Encourage the development of for-profit and non-profit enterprises that are structured around cooperative
ownership/employee ownership models as these can result in greater financial security for employees/co-
owners. Explore potential connections with the local artist, cultural, entertainment and artisan groups.
8) Encourage the development of local artisans, who will enrich the cultural fabric of the community and create
self-employment opportunities.
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September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 73
Objective 6B: Better Integrate Youth into the Work Force and Community Life
Rationale: Youth often face difficulties in accessing job opportunities. A number of community members cited
the importance of better engaging with the City and making them feel more part of the community.
Expected Outcomes:
Greater economic opportunities for youth.
Greater community involvement by youth.
Reduced crime and social problems that can arise when youth are out on the streets without a job.
Supporting Actions:
1) Establish programs to engage with youth on an ongoing basis to better determine their needs and to
encourage their direct involvement in the community. Create partnerships with Chilliwack Community
Services and other youth NGO groups (e.g. YMCA/YWCA).
2) Work with youth programs such as big brothers, big sisters, and boys and girls clubs to make them aware
of job skills training and apprenticeship opportunities available for youth.
3) Actively seek to attract young professionals that have just completed their training in high demand fields.
4) Match training needs with training courses for young people.
5) Organize job banks and job fairs for young people.
6) Create more opportunities for youth to become involved in community decision-making by actively
encouraging their involvement on community boards of directors.
CITY OF CHILLIWACK ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS
September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 74
GOAL 7: Improve Transportation Infrastructure for Employees and Visitors
Objective 7A: Improve Employee Commuting Options
Rationale: A number of Chilliwack business people indicated that the lack of public transportation infrastructure
has a significant negative impact on the ability of companies to attract qualified employees who do not have
access to a car. Others indicated that it is difficult for their employees to upgrade their skills and education
because they cannot easily get to educational institutions, particularly those outside the City.
Expected Outcomes:
Improved access to qualified employees that do not have access to a car for daily use.
Better ability to provide necessary training and education for employees.
Supporting Actions:
1) Allocate a bigger portion of the municipal budget to providing more extensive and frequent public transit
options within the city, particularly for students. This will likely result in an increase in municipal taxes,
which could be met with opposition unless it can be demonstrated that the increased transit will reduce
resident costs from car use, taxi rides, car rental, etc. The city has plans to spend $250,000 per year to buy
new buses or improve transit each year from 203 to 2018. The City of Chilliwack currently spends 17% of
its total tax revenues on transportation.
2) Coordinate actions that complement and reinforce BC Transit’s Transit Future Plan Chilliwack Area,
specifically in the following areas:
Integrating community transportation infrastructure plans and projects into the Transit Future network.
Consider travel demand management practices (e.g. increasing parking fares, reducing parking
availability) in areas well served by transit.
Continue to focus high density and mixed use development in areas well served by transit.
Work with Transit BC to explore new funding systems for transit services in the community.
3) Promote the use of electric bikes and scooters as a cheap alternative to cars that can often allow riders to
reach their destination almost as quickly as by car by using a combination of bike paths and roads.
4) Facilitate the development of more mixed use neighbourhoods where employees are able to live within
walking or biking distance of their place of employment.
CITY OF CHILLIWACK ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS
September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 75
Objective 7B: Improve Transportation Infrastructure for Visitors
Rationale: It is difficult for visitors without a private car to come to Chilliwack. This constrains the number of
visitors that might otherwise travel to Chilliwack. Better transportation options could increase number of regional
and international visitors to Chilliwack. We note that this is a challenge throughout the Fraser Valley, which was
discussed in a strategic review of transit options in the Fraser Valley (Urban Systems, 2009) as well as a Transit
Future Plan – Chilliwack Area (BC Transit, 2012). Short term plans are to establish a network transit line with 20
minute frequency along Yale-Vedder, which will directly connect downtown, Sardis, and South Chilliwack as well
as a re-alignment of local routes.
Expected Outcomes:
Increased tourism revenues.
Enhanced brand recognition of Chilliwack as a tourism destination.
Supporting Actions:
1) Encourage the appropriate regional transit committees to expand shuttle bus services from Vancouver
and/or Surrey to Chilliwack.
2) Similarly encourage expansion of shuttle services to/from the Abbotsford airport.
3) Assess the feasibility of creating a charter water taxi service to Chilliwack from communities to the west.
This could be structured as a tourism activity in its own right.
Objective 7C: Improve Road Infrastructure for Commercial Vehicles
Rationale: Increasing levels of congestion by passenger vehicles cause commercial vehicles carrying cargo to
take longer and use more fuel to reach their destinations. Further, during the winter, business owners reported
that the road clearing does not happen very frequently except on the hillside streets were street clearing is a
priority for safety reasons.
Expected Outcomes:
Reduced travel times and lower costs for commercial vehicles.
More reliable supply chains and distribution delivery times to Chilliwack businesses that import or export goods.
Supporting Actions:
1) Implement recommendations of the recent snow removal policy review conducted by the City.
2) Provide more options for residents to use non-private car modes (e.g. shuttles, buses, cycling, carpooling)
for travel within the City.
CITY OF CHILLIWACK ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS
September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 76
GOAL 8: Become a Model Community in Advancing the Green Economy
Objective 8A: Conduct Business Activities in an Environmentally Responsible Manner
Rationale: Community members repeatedly indicated their desire to achieve a high standard of environmental
performance. Many spoke of their desire to pursue business activities that did not have an adverse effect on the
environment. This was particularly true for the agriculture and tourism sectors.
Expected Outcomes:
Reduced environmental impacts from business activities.
A cleaner environment for residents and visitors to enjoy.
Supporting Actions:
1) Support and encourage the agriculture sector in developing and implementing eco-friendly agricultural
practices. Also support and encourage the agriculture sector to improve land use on agricultural lands.
This is an action where support may be needed from senior levels of government to help farmers invest in
and adopt new environmental technologies.
2) Implement the environmental components of the Agriculture Area Plan.
3) Encourage Chilliwack businesses to participate in programs to reduce their carbon footprint and
environmental impacts.
4) Collaborate with the manufacturing association of BC to develop environmental programs for their members
in Chilliwack.
5) Provide leadership by taking measures to track and reduce the environmental impact of its own operations
at the City.
CITY OF CHILLIWACK ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS
September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 77
Objective 8B: Pursue Green Business Opportunities
Rationale: Chilliwack is situated in a lush valley with important natural assets that create the foundation to attract visitors and residents that are eco-minded. An opportunity exists for Chilliwack to build on and capitalize on these attributes. This goes hand in hand with the "brand building" process proposed early in the report.
We note that some of the proposed actions below represent a new direction for the City and require political
commitment by the Council through overarching sustainable development/climate change strategies.
Expected Outcomes:
Improved reputation as a “green” city.
New jobs in environmentally-friendly businesses.
Reduced energy use, water use, greenhouse gas emissions, pollution, and waste generation.
Supporting Actions:
1) Market the outdoor recreation opportunities associated with a green lifestyle such as fishing, hiking,
mountain climbing, biking and gardening.
2) Explore opportunities to enhance access to the Fraser River and to develop low impact recreational
activities along the river (e.g., bicycle paths, walking trails, canoe/kayak launch/staging areas, bird
watching). Create a riverfront park to further enhance this area and make it a tourist destination.
3) Provide encouragement and support to green businesses that are involved in energy retrofits, building
deconstruction, organic agriculture, water conservation, recycling, green roof construction, eco-tourism, and
so on.
4) Provide infrastructure support to expand the use of green technologies, such as district energy systems,
solar hot water heating, photovoltaic panels, drainwater heat recovery, and so on.
CITY OF CHILLIWACK ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS
September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2 78
8.0 CLOSURE We trust that the information contained in this report meets your present requirements. Please contact us if you
have any questions or concerns regarding the above.
Yours very truly,
GOLDER ASSOCIATES LTD.
Aaron Licker, B.A., Adv. Dipl. Tech. GIS David J. Reid, B.L.A., BCSLA, FCSLA GIS Specialist Principal, Environmental Planning and Design Practice Leader
DR/AL/eb
This report was originally written by Peter Russell and David Van Seters on April 22, 2013 and subsequently
edited by David Reid on September 10, 2013.
Golder, Golder Associates and the GA globe design are trademarks of Golder Associates Corporation.
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CITY OF CHILLIWACK ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS
September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2
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APPENDIX A Business License Data Tables
APPENDIX A Business License Data Tables
January 3, 2013 Reference No. 1214410139-001-R-RevB 1/5
Table A-1: Industrial Establishments by Major Industrial Group, 1992 and 2011A1
Industry Group 1992 2011 Annual Growth Rate
Ab
ove
A
vera
ge
Manufacturing - metal/machinery/transportation equipment/electrical/non-metal products
22 54 4.8%
Construction and trade 43 98 4.4%
Manufacturing - wood and related products 28 60 4.1%
Manufacturing - chemical and allied products - 6 3.8%a
All industries 202 374 3.3%
Bel
ow
Ave
rag
e
Manufacturing - food/beverage 23 38 2.7%
Wholesale (petro/foods/drugs/building material-hardware-plumbing/machinery, etc.)
33 52 2.4%
Transport/storage/communications 36 48 1.5%
Agriculture 13 15 0.8%
Forestry 3 1 -5.6%
Mining and quarrying 1 - -100.0%
Utilities - 1 N/A
Personal service (industrial scale) - 1 N/A
Note:
A growth rate calculated from 2000 base year
N/A - not applicable
A1 Source: City of Chilliwack (2012d).
APPENDIX A Business License Data Tables
January 3, 2013 Reference No. 1214410139-001-R-RevB 2/5
Table A-2: Commercial Establishments by Major Industrial GroupA2
Industry Group 1992 2011
1992 - 2011 Annual Growth Rate
Ab
ove
Ave
rag
e
Other financial intermediaries 0 3 14.7% a
Membership organizations 1 6 9.9%
General merchandize, retail 26 54 3.9%
Educational services 4 8 3.7%
Business services 68 133 3.6%
Amusement & recreation services 30 56 3.3%
Health & social services 104 189 3.2%
Personal & household services 80 137 2.9%
Food & beverage services 111 171 2.3%
Investment intermediaries 6 9 2.2%
Food, beverage & drugs, retail 49 74 2.2%
All Industries 1,152 1,542 1.5%
Bel
ow
Ave
rag
e
Non-store retail 10 12 1.0%
Banks & similar institutions 14 17 1.0%
Motor vehicles, part and accessories 154 184 0.9%
Real estate operators 147 172 0.8%
Shoes, clothes & fabrics, retail 46 51 0.5%
Federal government services - - 0.0%
Provincial government services - - 0.0%
Consumer & business financing 0 2 0.0%a
Accommodation services (rooms) 27 26 -0.2%
Other retail stores 139 132 -0.3%
Services incidental to agriculture (veterinarians only) 13 12 -0.4%
Other service industries 41 36 -0.7%
Household furniture & appliances, retail 43 35 -1.1%
Insurance companies 21 15 -1.8%
Real estate agents 18 7 -4.8%
Lumber & building materials (only big box mixed retail) 0 1 N/A
Notes:
A growth rate calculated from 2000 base year
A2 Source: City of Chilliwack (2012d).
APPENDIX A Business License Data Tables
January 3, 2013 Reference No. 1214410139-001-R-RevB 3/5
Table A-3: Industrial Floor Space (m2) by Major Industrial GroupA3
Industry Group 1992 2011 Annual Growth Rate
Ab
ove
A
vera
ge
Manufacturing - chemical and allied products - 7,813 9.2%a
Manufacturing - metal/machinery/transportation equipment/electrical/non-metal products
13,551 50,090 7.1%
Transport/storage/communications 14,713 50,418 6.7%
Construction and trade 4,903 12,310 5.0%
All industries 120,043 230,708 3.5%
Bel
ow
Ave
rag
e
Manufacturing - wood and related products 29,200 44,444 2.2%
Wholesale (petro/foods/drugs/building material-hardware-plumbing/machinery, etc.)
22,903 33,534 2.0%
Agriculture 3,943 5,130 1.4%
Personal service (industrial scale) - 232 0.0%a
Utilities - - 0.0%
Manufacturing - food/beverage 30,442 26,570 -0.7%
Forestry 288 167 -2.8%
Mining and quarrying 100 - -100.0%
Note:
A growth rate calculated from 2000 base year
A3 Source: City of Chilliwack (2012d).
APPENDIX A Business License Data Tables
January 3, 2013 Reference No. 1214410139-001-R-RevB 4/5
Table A-4: Commercial Floor Space (m2) by Major Industrial GroupA4
Industry Group 1992 2011
1992 - 2011 Annual Growth Rate
Ab
ove
Ave
rag
e
Real estate operators 290 4,131 15.0%
Business services 6,188 23,046 7.2%
Investment intermediaries 434 1,570 7.0%
Non-store retail 689 2,209 6.3%
Food, beverage & drugs, retail 24,488 53,075 4.2%
Motor vehicles, part and accessories 42,501 90,884 4.1%
Health & social services 10,219 20,598 3.8%
Amusement & recreation services 12,018 21,106 3.0%
All Commercial Floor Space m2 (excluding hotels/motels) 224,368 396,621 3.0%
Bel
ow
Ave
rag
e
Educational services 808 1,316 2.6%
General merchandize, retail 32,275 48,860 2.2%
Shoes, clothes & fabrics, retail 9,790 14,740 2.2%
Personal & household services 7,094 10,568 2.1%
Food & beverage services 21,556 31,053 1.9%
Membership organizations - 1,270 1.7% a
Other retail stores 21,305 29,096 1.7%
Banks & similar institutions 7,015 9,321 1.5%
Lumber & building materials (only big box mixed retail) - 9,324 1.4%a
Insurance companies 2,021 2,353 0.8%
Federal government services - - 0.0%
Provincial government services - - 0.0%
Other service industries 4,607 4,628 0.0%
Consumer & business financing - 242 0.0%b
Household furniture & appliances, retail 13,988 12,974 -0.4%
Other financial intermediaries - 212 -0.7% b
Accommodation services (rooms) - 785 -0.8% a
Real estate agents 3,139 2,050 -2.2%
Services incidental to agriculture (veterinarians only) 3,943 1,996 -3.5%
Notes:
A growth rate calculated from 2000 base year
B growth rate calculated from 2003 base year
A4 Source: City of Chilliwack (2012d).
APPENDIX A Business License Data Tables
January 3, 2013 Reference No. 1214410139-001-R-RevB 5/5
Table A-5: Industrial and Commercial Land by Neighbourhood, 2012A5
Neighbourhood/ Traffic Zone
Industrial Commercial Total
Ha % of Total
Ha % of Total
Ha % of Total
Chilliwack Proper (including Little Mountain)
35.7 16.9% 83.8 35.0% 119.5 27.0%
Sardis-Vedder (corridor including First Nation Reserves)
2.7 1.3% 76.9 32.1% 79.5 18.0%
Promontory (TZ 26) 5.9 2.8% 0.0 0.7% 5.9 1.3%
Chilliwack Mountain (TZ 35A)
0.0 0.0% 0.0 2.4% 0.0 0.0%
Ryder Lake (TZ 30)
0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.3% 0.0 0.0%
Eastern Hillsides 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Rosedale-East Chilliwack North side 3.4 1.6% 5.1 2.1% 8.5 1.9%
East Chilliwack Southside 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Greendale-Cattermole-Yarrow 79.8 37.8% 14.1 5.9% 93.9 21.2%
Village West (including Eagle Landing Shopping Centre)
83.8 39.7% 51.4 21.5% 135.2 30.5%
Total 211.2 100.0% 239.3 100.0% 442.4 100.0%
y:\vancouver\final\2012\12-1441-0139\1214410139-001-r-revb 02jan_13\components\appendix a - business license data tables.docx
A5 Source: City of Chilliwack (2012e).
CITY OF CHILLIWACK ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS
September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2
APPENDIX B Spatial Allocation of Employment by Broad Sector
CITY OF CHILLIWACK ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS
September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2
APPENDIX C Key List of Informants
APPENDIX C Key List of Informants
January 3, 2013 Reference No. 1214410139-001-R-RevB 1/1
Stan Rogers, Legacy Pacific Group of Companies
Kevin Gimmell, Chilliwack Chamber of Commerce
Amber Short, Tourism Chilliwack
Brian Coombes, Tourism Chilliwack
James Donaldson, Chilliwack Economic Partners Corporation
Netty Tam, Chilliwack Economic Partners Corporation
Brian Minter, Minter Gardens
Leonard Wiens, Comfort Inn
Ken Falk, Fraser Valley Duck & Goose
Chilliwack Chamber of Commerce
Barb Kemp, Downtown Business Improvement Association
Stó:lō First Nation
John English, University of the Fraser Valley
Terry Wilkins, Assistant Manager, Chilliwack Airport
y:\vancouver\final\2012\12-1441-0139\1214410139-001-r-rev1 05mar_13\components\appendix c - key list of informants.docx
CITY OF CHILLIWACK ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS
September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2
APPENDIX D Results of Future Scenarios
APPENDIX D Results of Future Scenarios
January 3, 2013 Reference No. 1214410139-001-R-RevB 1/9
The general idea behind scenario planning
is that because we do not know exactly
how the future will unfold, it is useful to
consider a number of plausible future
scenarios and choose a course of action
that will work well across several possible
futures. Each scenario is presented as a
specially constructed story about a
possible future that is distinctly different
from the other scenarios yet represents a
realistic possible future that we may one
day experience.
After considering a number of different
scenarios developed for future-based
strategic planning, we adapted the
following scenarios from a set that were
developed by a team of researchers at the
University of Sussex in the UK. We made them relevant to the Chilliwack context based on interviews with a
number of Chilliwack community members. These scenarios, shown in Figure D-1, describe what the world
might be like in 25 years.
Figure D-1 shows the four scenarios in relation to two responses to the drivers of change. The first response
centres on social values on the horizontal axis, ranging from individualistic values to more community oriented
values. The second along the vertical axis indicates social and political priorities and patterns of economic
activity that result from them. It ranges from autonomy at the regional level to interdependence with more global
institutions (e.g., World Bank). Each of the four scenarios occupies a quadrant created by the combination of
these two responses. The four scenarios are described at the world scale and in relation to Chilliwack on the
following pages. Participants were asked to identify the implications of each scenario and then identify
appropriate responses.
Figure D-1: Scenario Planning Model.
APPENDIX D Results of Future Scenarios
January 3, 2013 Reference No. 1214410139-001-R-RevB 2/9
Scenario 1: World Markets (Interdependent/Individualistic)
Cities, Regions or Countries that typify this scenario:
The United States
The Cayman Islands
Calgary
Economic Trends
Strong economic growth
Shift from traditional industries toward services
Financial services and tourism expand
Unemployment is medium to low, job security declines
Low paying service jobs rise
Social/demographic Trends
Middle class shrinks as income inequity rises
Average incomes increase
Personal debt increases
Diet-related illnesses rise
Environmental Trends
CO2 levels rise and severe weather events increase
Biodiversity declines
Natural resource shortages increase, which raises food and commodity prices
Technological Trends
Rapid technological innovation
Media and information technologies expand
Biotechnology and nanotechnology expands
Renewable energy expands modestly
Political/Governance Trends
Government shrinks
Minimal government policy except to enable markets
The Global Context: People are focused on improving their own lives through material wealth with less concern for the effect this might have on others and the environment. Business and government are focused on economic growth and developing global markets through free enterprise approaches. A few global firms/brands dominate many sectors. Internationally co-ordinated policy sets framework conditions for the efficient functioning of markets. People believe that technology will solve the problems.
Pressure is high to reduce taxes, regulations, social services and the size of government. Private property rights are enshrined in law and strongly enforced. There is more international coordination in the areas of trade and security and the three countries of North America share a common currency. The wealth gap between the rich and poor continues to grow.
New technologies are rapidly adopted and growth is concentrated in health, leisure, financial, IT and media services. Biotechnology transforms the health and food industries. Electronic network technologies revolutionize the growing service sector. Traditional manufacturing declines as it is taken up by newly industrialized countries (Brazil, China, India). The construction industry expands.
Jobs become less secure and people change jobs more often. Tele-work expands as does social exclusion from the digital economy
The Chilliwack Context: Tourism expands as more international visitors come to enjoy the natural assets around Chilliwack. The number of construction jobs increases and many more cargo shipments to Asia pass through the city. The Chilliwack airport receives more passengers each year.
Wealth and poverty both become more visible as the gap between the wealthy and poor increases. More people lock their doors as petty crimes increase. People find it increasingly difficult to get loans because of their high debt levels. More big box retailers set up along the highway and traffic congestion increases dramatically.
There are increasing cries to move more land out of the Agricultural Land Reserve to increase economic growth. High-tech vertical cropping greenhouse businesses are established. Weather events become more severe and the number of forest fires and floods increases. There is a marked increase in crop losses and animal culls due to avian flu-type viruses, insects and blights.
APPENDIX D Results of Future Scenarios
January 3, 2013 Reference No. 1214410139-001-R-RevB 3/9
Summary of implications and responses from participants regarding Scenario 1
BUSINESS
Implications to Chilliwack Strategic Responses
o Export sector expands. o Transportation increases. o Farming sector expands; more specialized local food
products like blueberries and corn, etc. o Transnationals and individual pursuits move in,
everyone for themselves. o Rising environmental impacts dictates greater need to
produce more with less carbon imprint.
o Expand local government support. o Increase value added product development. o Improve branding. o Develop clusters with special interest groups. o Increase agriculture production. o Develop new technology to increase production. o Become leaders in creative industries. o Use more creative production methods.
PLACE
Implications to Chilliwack Strategic Responses
o Tourism expands - Chilliwack becomes outdoor value destination.
o Transit infrastructure remains poor/lacking. o Land use by economic use rather than gov't planning. o Fragmentation of community.
o Expand tourism marketing. o Improve infrastructure to handle increased visitation. o Expand bike routes, alternate modes of
transportation. o Provide more small buses to address poor transit. o Create a well-defined land use plan.
PEOPLE
Implications to Chilliwack Strategic Responses
o Reduction in government provided social services. o Reduction in safety net by government. o Less support for charities, non-government support. o Increased gaming revenues, with more money
recycled. o Increased gap in incomes between rich and poor. o Increased immigration for lower paying jobs. o Fewer people in the middle class. o More jobs created, more educational training provided. o More lower paying jobs. o Social needs rise for older, lower income, and disabled
people.
o Empower non gov't agencies, charities to take up the slack in provided social services.
o Initiate education programs for people to generate self-employment.
o Provide more training for special health needs. o Address the expanded infrastructure need. o Address the decline in social services.
SUSTAINABILITY
Implications to Chilliwack Strategic Responses
o More intense land use. o Rising competing interests for lands. o Continued aging population. o Reduced agricultural land base to increase economic
growth. o Reliance on technology to increase efficiency. o Pressure to maintain agricultural land without pollution.
o Densify with environmental techniques (e.g., green buildings).
o Develop a well-defined land use strategy. o Provide training and education to accommodate the
advancement in technology.
APPENDIX D Results of Future Scenarios
January 3, 2013 Reference No. 1214410139-001-R-RevB 4/9
Scenario 2: National Governance (Autonomy/Individualistic)
Cities, Regions or Countries that typify this scenario:
Canada, 30 years ago
Quebec in some aspects
At the extreme, Cuba
Economic Trends
Modest economic growth
Stable, protectionist economy
National defence expands
Small and medium sized enterprises expand
Unemployment rises, job security declines
Social/demographic Trends
Social values are individualistic/nationalist
People become more patriotic and support for arts and culture rises
Pension benefits declines as labour force shrinks
Income inequality rises
Environmental Trends
CO2 levels rise and severe weather events increase
Water exports are restricted.
Technological Trends
Low technol. innovation
Domestic energy sources are emphasized, with more investment in renewables
Political/Governance Trends
Government is reactive and closed
Government regulates to protect key sectors
The Global Context: People value individual freedoms but within the context
of independent countries that strongly protect their national industries
(utilities, telecommunications, media). In Canada, business is focused more
on domestic markets and the US with a decrease in international trade.
Citizens are proudly patriotic but continue to believe the value of free markets
and private enterprise. Separatist movements in Quebec arise in Ontario,
Alberta, and BC.
Political power is strong at the federal level and Canada keeps the US more
at arm’s length by increasing border restrictions and negotiating stronger
trade agreements on energy, agriculture, and consumer goods. While market
values remain strong, national policies limit foreign ownership, investment,
and trade which dampen economic growth. Restraints on competition also
reduce technological innovation, which has a negative economic impact.
Small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) that serve domestic markets
expand while the construction industry declines due to a decrease in
investment in housing and infrastructure.
Food prices stop rising because of national subsidies on agriculture and
market controls. The job market remains strong for lower skilled domestic
workers and those involved in agriculture and retail.
The Chilliwack Context: Chilliwack becomes a quieter place with fewer
international visitors and a slower growing resident population. Housing starts
taper off and housing prices decline. Rail workers are laid off as declining
international trade reduces the volume of freight. Employment gradually shifts
back to primary industries such as forestry, and mining.
Regional and Canadian businesses expand modestly as restrictions on
foreign imports and trade opens up markets for local firms. International
stores are replaced by Canadian/regional ones that sell mostly Canadian
goods. Residents make more frequent trips to big box food stores in Metro
Vancouver but fewer trips to the US because duty free spending limits are
decreased. Local food processors experience increased local demand.
Tourism declines, relying primarily on regional visitors from BC and Alberta.
Food prices become more stable and import restrictions on fruit and
vegetables from the US causes wood biomass-powered greenhouses to
become economically viable and more prevalent in Chilliwack. Carbon
emissions decline modestly as international trade declines.
APPENDIX D Results of Future Scenarios
January 3, 2013 Reference No. 1214410139-001-R-RevB 5/9
Summary of implications and responses from participants regarding Scenario 2
BUSINESS
Implications to Chilliwack Strategic Responses
o Decrease in employment. o Less foreign income and investments. o Decline in tourism. o Stagnation of real estate / construction. o More agriculture processing. o Harder to attract capital for growth. o Retail pricing becomes more competitive.
o Promoting local producers, marketing to larger communities.
o Expand trades training for youth, technology Centre. o Market to those wishing to relax in a more rural
environment with outdoor tourism / recreation. o Upgrade infrastructure. o Find more land in industrial areas. o Increase local business retention, create biz
incubators. o Provide more business development assistance. o Re-develop brownfield sites. o Increase local investment from local capital pools.
PLACE
Implications to Chilliwack Strategic Responses
o Less development. o Valuable agricultural land is abused/taken out of
agricultural land reserve (ALR). o Densification of housing. o More agriculture processing plants. o Increase demand for industrial land.
o Encourage construction o Embrace technology for agricultural development. o Market Chilliwack to outside communities. o Protect soil based agriculture activity. o Improve infrastructure - water services, etc.
PEOPLE
Implications to Chilliwack Strategic Responses
o More people become marginalized. o Food expenses increase. o Lack of resources for community services, e.g.,
hospitals. o Low skilled community. o Young people leave/don't see opportunity. o More people needed to work the land. o Slow down in residential population. o No sense of heritage.
o Encourage education. o Attract young professionals. o Find ways to produce more efficiently. o Develop destination tourism activities. o Put a priority on promoting things to do. o Focus on youth training and education - match skills
to labour market.
SUSTAINABILITY
Implications to Chilliwack Strategic Responses
o Increased focus on basic needs. o Incomes are lower, people have less purchasing
power. o Where will people live? o Social services and health care decline and are
provided more at the household level. o Creative enterprises decline / stagnate.
o Market to other communities. o Focus on higher densification, suites and lane
housing, encouraging construction. o Attract external professionals. o Encourage artisans.
APPENDIX D Results of Future Scenarios
January 3, 2013 Reference No. 1214410139-001-R-RevB 6/9
Scenario 3: Global Responsibility (Interdependent/Community-Minded)
Cities, Regions, Countries
that typify this scenario:
The Scandinavian countries
Brussels in some aspects
Economic Trends
Modest economic growth
Shift toward services
Services expand, material consumption declines
Unemployment is low
Int’l job market expands
Social/demographic Trends
Income equity improves
Average incomes increase
People work fewer hours
Environmental Trends
CO2 levels declines with efforts to minimize environmental impacts
Strong support for environmental protection
Global treaties on climate, biodiversity emerge
Technological Trends
Rapid tech. innovation
Fossil fuel and traditional manufacturing declines
Renewable energy expands
Political/Governance Trend
International government structures proliferate
Strong government policy, especially social and env.
”Sin” taxes and wealth taxes rise to balance budgets
The Global Context: People recognize the interdependence of the global
economy and want to participate in international policies and institutions.
Business has an international focus but with a strong sense of social
responsibility, working in partnership with government, non-profit
organizations and consumers. International trade expands but with strong
environmental and social controls.
Achieving a balance between economic, social and environmental policy is
seen as important. Government agencies work with business and non-profit
groups (especially international NGOs) to foster social and environmental
improvements through public policy and international cooperation.
Multinational organizations are created to develop and enforce global
regulations on shared resources such as oceans. Decision making
processes become more open but also more complex. Private property rights
are softened and some people complain about a “big brother” attitude in
government.
Economic conditions are stable and technological advances focus on eco-
efficiency and human health. The average work week declines and
employees get more vacation allotments. Capital and technology flows to low
income countries to bring their living standards closer to high income
countries. Education and training is given a high priority to create high value
jobs. Welfare systems and social services are enhanced but with a significant
increase in taxes to pay for them.
The Chilliwack Context: Corporate social responsibility becomes a much
higher priority in Chilliwack and businesses actively promote their efforts to
reduce their environmental impacts and to support disadvantaged community
members. Government increases support for disadvantaged people.
University tuition costs are reduced, although taxes rise significantly to pay for
these and other services.
Private property ownership rights are reduced and new shared-use
community assets and amenities are introduced. Some people complain
about all the new rules that constrain their activities. The Chilliwack airport
passenger volumes decline. A high speed rail system brings a new group of
long stay travellers and regional visitors. Geo-exchange heating systems and
solar hot water panels are common.
Non-energy intensive recreational activities become much more popular and
people choose to work fewer hours so they can play longer. Traditional retail
sales decline because higher taxes and lower incomes cause people to buy
fewer goods.
APPENDIX D Results of Future Scenarios
January 3, 2013 Reference No. 1214410139-001-R-RevB 7/9
Summary of implications and responses from participants regarding Scenario 3
BUSINESS
Implications to Chilliwack Strategic Responses
o More tourism and recreational activities. o Different types of business activities. o More government jobs. o More educational activities. o Reduced environmental impacts from agriculture. o Change of eating habits toward less meat/less sick
time. o Businesses collaborate more often. o Big box stores /retailers face major decline.
o Improve infrastructure and transit. o Improve transit integration. o Expand regulations for the agricultural sector. o Improve productivity. o Improve affordability to offset high taxes. o Promote more specialized retail business to meet
needs of local market.
PLACE
Implications to Chilliwack Strategic Responses
o Greater emphasis on livability in lower mainland region.
o Increased production of / demand for community gardens.
o Support more and better housing developments. o Expand leisure orientated housing. o Promote affordable, well designed secondary
housing. o Market Chilliwack’s ‘livability’ advantages. o Create partnerships with local famers.
PEOPLE
Implications to Chilliwack Strategic Responses
o Higher taxes/higher wages. o Aging population given more services/support. o Reduced tuition costs. o Better educated work force. o Strong social safety net. o Less crime / safer community. o Fewer unemployed and needy people. o Rich/poor gap narrows.
o Encourage business to contribute more to community.
o Provide a local focal point for seniors. o Attract new people to Chilliwack. o Create a marketing campaign for Chilliwack to
attract businesses, residents, and workers. o Market Chilliwack’s educated / skilled workers to
world markets.
SUSTAINABILITY
Implications to Chilliwack Strategic Responses
o Stable land base. o Reduction in pollution. o Increased demand for cultural and entertainment
options. o Cost of foods rise. o Innovative solutions to density implemented. o Wastes and wastewater minimized.
o Market the local economy as ‘green’. o Market to eco tourists. o Increase infrastructure to meet demand. o Provide community gardens on unused farmland. o Regulate building / infrastructure towards
environmentally friendly materials. o Increase affordability for the community.
APPENDIX D Results of Future Scenarios
January 3, 2013 Reference No. 1214410139-001-R-RevB 8/9
Scenario 4: Local/regional Self-reliance (Autonomy/Community)
Cities, Regions or Countries that typify this scenario:
Eco-villages
Bhutan
Hutterite Colonies
Economic Trends
Low/no economic growth
Shift to self-reliant activities
Unemployment is medium/ low as people work less
Small-scale manufacturing and farming expands
Tourism, retail and financial services decline
Social/demographic Trends
Incomes shrink but are much more equitable
People trade, borrow and share to reduce costs
Health improves
Environmental Trends
CO2 levels decline as energy use plummets
Environmental stewardship is a prime concern, esp. farmland, water, and forests
Technological Trends
Low energy technologies are favoured
Small-scale renewable energy expands
Political/Governance Trends
Local government expands
Citizens actively participate in local decision-making
Immigration stops
Taxes increase
The Global Context: People disconnect themselves from the global economic
system either by choice or because of a breakdown in the system and focus on
living sustainable, self-reliant lifestyles at a local or regional scale. The
economy is driven by small business serving local markets with small-scale
manufacturing and services. Protecting the environment and natural resources
becomes a top concern.
People actively participate in local governance and decision-making. Health,
education and social services are publicly funded and paid for by high levels of
taxation and regionally controlled. Government and business focus almost
entirely on local affairs. International trade plummets and some communities
become antagonistic to adjacent communities that want access to scarce local
resources. Tolerance of other cultures and lifestyles declines.
Businesses face lower competition but are restrained by regional resources
(knowledge, technology, and materials). Investment shifts from global stock
exchanges to community investment organizations. The economy is stable,
favouring small-scale production. Tourism, financial services and high tech
industries decline. People buy only what they need so retail outlets go out of
business in large numbers. People have a strong environmental ethics as they
work to preserve scarce local resources and increase the productivity of
agricultural and forest lands. Housing sizes shrink as people make do with
less.
The Chilliwack Context: Tourism declines significantly as people shift from
travel and trade to local self-reliance. Strong community ties develop as people
work together to grow food, operate small-scale manufacturing operations, and
build houses in barn-raising style work-bees. Free stores are set up for people
to borrow or rent tools, clothing, and recreational equipment (e.g., canoes).
People earn far less but also spend less to keep their household finances in
balance.
Car sharing becomes very popular and young families invite the parents to live
with them when their parents are no longer able to live in their own homes.
Small scale, non-energy intensive technologies come back in vogue. Labour
replaces technology (e.g., push mowers vs. electric or gas mowers) and the
general fitness level of residents improves. The cash economy shifts toward a
trade/barter economy.
Energy consumption shrinks dramatically, resulting in a gradual decline in
severe weather events. Residents are less welcoming of newcomers, which
they view as depleting local resource supplies.
APPENDIX D Results of Future Scenarios
January 3, 2013 Reference No. 1214410139-001-R-RevB 9/9
Summary of implications and responses from participants regarding Scenario 4
BUSINESS
Implications to Chilliwack Strategic Responses
o More family orientated/multi-generational businesses.
o More trading / less buying. o More local craft businesses. o Lack of capital. o No new enterprises / skills / technologies. o Internal trade, products sold only within community. o Few places to use acquired skills. o Few employment opportunities.
o Develop large flea market farmers market. o Promote cooperatives/local produce. o Provide tax incentives for leaders /job creators. o Strengthen supply / demand quota system. o Promote business that speak to local mentality,
brand. o Organize job banks / trading for efficient use of skill
sets. o Develop local policies to encourage entrepreneurs. o Create local jobs.
PLACE
Implications to Chilliwack Strategic Responses
o Land use patterns return to those 100 years ago. o Land becomes worth much less.
o Encourage local food markets. o Support neighbourhoods planned for this life style. o Encourage an entrepreneurial spirit. o Encourage local investment/local capital. o Ensure that land use planning is thoughtful,
effective. o Diversity the economic base.
PEOPLE
Implications to Chilliwack Strategic Responses
o Taxes increase relative to incomes. o Less money to support social services. o Fewer jobs. o People share more things cars/homes/tools. o Decline in tourism. o Education become less important.
o Encourage education. o Encourage youth to engage, think and develop. o Attract investors that produce and sell. o Bring new business ideas to life. o Diversify opportunities/create economic balance. o Promote group buying/collaborate cost sharing. o Focus on basic human needs e.g., agriculture.
SUSTAINABILITY
Implications to Chilliwack Strategic Responses
o Less travel in / out of community. o Less industry / technology. o Reduced technological advantages. o Supply chain internalized. o Insular / limited marketplace skills.
o Develop support car sharing program. o Promote public transit, walking, and cycling. o Promote energy efficiency. o Encourage education. o Develop trade and commerce centers / facilities. o Help youth to engage in the community. o Improve education, marketing, business facilitation.
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CITY OF CHILLIWACK ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS
September 13, 2013 Report No. 1214410139-007-R-Rev2
APPENDIX E Economic Projection Tables
APPENDIX E Economic Projection Tables
January 3, 2013 Reference No. 1214410139-001-R-RevB 1/1
Table E-1: Change in Population By Selected Jurisdictions, 2011 to 2041E1
Jurisdictions 2011 2021 2031 2036 2041 % change 2011-2041
City of Chilliwack 86,695 104,445 125,825 138,106 151,585 74.8%
Fraser Valley Regional District 296,005 346,215 405,355 438,770 475,045 60.5%
Metro Vancouver 2,404,911 2,780,200 3,129,000 3,251,870 3,400,400 41.4%
British Columbia (low) 4,588,100 5,128,000 5,588,800 5,785,800 n/a n/a
British Columbia (high) 4,608,000 5,497,600 6,457,300 6,955,600 n/a n/a
Canada (low) 34,454,500 37,171,200 39,314,500 40,142,400 40,839,800 18.5%
Canada (high) 34,594,600 39,641,200 44,968,000 47,686,000 50,519,600 46.0%
United States of America (low) 311,051,000 339,745,000 368,522,000 382,621,000 396,671,000 27.5%
United States of America (high) 315,772,000 350,237,000 386,243,000 400,854,000 423,157,000 34.0%
World 6,839,593 7,574,068 8,218,684 8,494,203 8,742,253 27.8%
Table E-2: Households Projections in the Fraser Valley Regional District, 2011 to 2041E2
Jurisdictions 2011 2021 2031 2036 2041 % change 2011-2041
City of Chilliwack 33,595 40,955 49,736 54,863 60,218 79%
City of Abbotsford 50,952 62,223 74,717 82,218 89,097 75%
Remaining Fraser Valley RD 27,678 32,861 36,998 39,557 41,927 51%
Total Fraser Valley RD 112,225 136,039 161,452 176,638 191,242 70%
Table E-3: Labour Force Projections in the Fraser Valley Regional District, 2011 to 2041E3
Jurisdictions 2011 2021 2031 2036 2041 % change 2011-2041
City of Chilliwack 37,279 47,000 57,880 63,529 69,729 87%
City of Abbotsford 65,489 78,543 94,157 102,035 110,572 69%
Remaining Fraser Valley RD 26,686 31,205 35,902 37,998 40,228 51%
Total Fraser Valley RD 129,454 156,748 187,939 203,562 220,529 70% NOTE: Based on LHA
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E1 Source: Fraser Valley Regional District (2012); Metro Vancouver (2011); Statistics Canada (2012); The World Bank (2012); and, United States Census (2012) E2 Source: Fraser Valley Regional District (2012) E3 Source: Fraser Valley Regional District (2012).
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