citizens & election systems workshop on electoral methods kth stockholm 2011-05-31 # kthwem

www.valforskning.pol.gu.se

Citizens & Election SystemsWorkshop on electoral methods

KTH Stockholm2011-05-31

#kthwem

Professor HENRIK EKENGREN OSCARSSONHead of the SOM-institute, University of GothenburgPrincipal investigator Swedish National Election [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]


SOME (MAJOR) CONSTRAINTS FOR ELECTORAL REFORM

In all election systems, the citizens do the voting

The players (parties) decide themselves if and how they want to change the rules of the game (electoral reforms)


Separate Elections and Spring elections

(2001)

Personal vote (1998)

Attitudes Towards the Democratic Rules of the Game among Citizens and Members of Parliament (2008)

Absentee Voting in Sweden (2009)


Some findings

• The effects of the personal vote reform (mid 1990s) is far from what was intended2006: 22%; 2010: 25%; only about half can remember (correctly) who they voted forCandidate recognition is very low (30 percent) no personalisation of politics hereThe new threshold (8%5%) will most likely have little effect

• Absentee voting reforms (2002-2006) have measureable and significant positive effects on turnout levels, according to micro level panel analyses.

• Issues on electoral reform is weakly politicized both in the electorate and among the MPs.• Attitudes toward all kinds of electoral reforms are negative (except for local referendums).

Status quo tend to be the most preferred option.• Attitudes toward electoral reforms are more negative among the MPs than among the

citizens.

More


Citizens attitudes toward some electoral reforms 1998, 2000 och 2006 (percent, net balance) Proposition

++ + o – – – percent

opinion balance

Lower the voting age to 16 years in all 1998 2 7 14 33 44 100 -68 elections 2000 3 6 14 34 43 100 -68 2006 2 8 14 31 45 100 -66 Lower the 4-percent threshold to the 1998 4 7 29 28 32 100 -49 Riksdag 2006 2 7 24 30 37 100 -58 Conduct more national referendums 1998 12 27 38 15 8 100 +16 2000 9 29 35 19 8 100 +11 2006 8 24 37 20 11 100 +1 Conduct more local referendums 1998 11 29 35 16 9 100 +15 2000 11 34 34 15 6 100 +24 2006 9 34 33 17 7 100 +19 Conduct national and local elections 1998 12 16 34 19 19 100 -10 separately 2000 11 23 34 18 14 100 +2 2006 5 12 35 25 23 100 -31 Change the length of the election periods 2000 10 16 31 24 19 100 -17 from 4 to 3 years 2006 6 11 24 26 33 100 -42


1. Citizens’ estimates of fairness of elections2. Swedish Citizens’ knowledge of the electoral system3. Swedish Citizens’ trust in the Election Authority

(Valmyndigheten)


Perceived Fairness of the Last Election (www.CSES.org )

“In some countries, people believe their elections are conducted fairly. In other countries, people believe that their elections are conducted unfairly. Thinking of the last election in [country], where would you place it on this scale of one to five where ONE means that the last election was conducted fairly and FIVE means that the last election was conducted unfairly?”

COUNTRY MEANS

http://www.cses.org/


Perception of Fairness of Elections in Sweden 1998-2010% ”last election was conducted fairly”

Sweden 1998: 74 % (post election interview)Sweden 2006: 64 % (pre election interview)Sweden 2006: 65 % (post election mail questionnaire)Sweden 2010: 58 % (post election interview)

Source: SNES 1998-2010



(Valmyndigheten)


Average political knowledge among men and womenduring the life span


Table 1 Swedish voters’ factual knowledge 1985-2002. Percentage of voters giving a correct answer (Percent).

1991 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 true/false

Factual knowledge of the political system and how it works

You must cross a candidate on the party list, otherwise your vote will be unvalid

– – 88 – – – false

The Swedish Riksdag has 349 members 69 69 74 72 74 76 true During the period 1998-2002/2002-2006,

Sweden had a Social democratic one party government

– – – 47 45 – true

During the period 2006-2010, Sweden had a government with four bourgeois parties

– – – – – 95 true

A party must receive more than six percent of the votes to enter the Swedish Riksdag

– – – – – 90 false

Source: SNES 1991-2010


Factual knowledge (cont.) eup eup fo eup eup

1995 1999 2003 2004 2009

Question about when the next EU-election will take place (correctly formulated) - - 41 24 44-

The European Parliament decides on all laws within EU (false) - - - 35 39

The EU-parliament can dissolve the EU-commission (correct) - - - 36 35

The Social democrats (PES) is the largest party group in the European Parliament (wrong) - - - - 30

How many representatives do Sweden have in the European Union? (18 or 20 coded as correct) - - - - 14

How many votes do Sweden have in the European council? (4) 25 13 - - -


What Swedes know about politics

• Knowledge of party standpoints

• Knowledge of the political system• Factual knowledge on political matters

• Knowledge of candidates/political representatives


.3

.4

.5

.6

.7

.8

.9

1P

oliti

cal k

now

ledg

e

18 22 26 30 34 38 42 46 50 54 58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86Age

Men WomenAnswering the threshold question correct

Source: SNES 2010


Some preliminary results

• Voters of small parties tend to have a higher probability of answering the ”6-percent threshold” question correct.



(Valmyndigheten)


Job performance Election Authority (Valmyndigheten 2001-)

NORECOGNITION

(24%)

DON’TKNOW(4%)

”How do you think the following authorities are doing their job?”

Source: National SOM survey 2010


Job performanceElection Authority (Valmyndigheten)

Very good

Rather good

Neither good nor bad

Rather bad

Very bad

Don’t know

Don’t know about

the Authority

n Opinion balance

Swedish Public Employment Service (Arbetsförmedlingen) 2 11 23 23 17 19 5 100 3 206 -27 The Police (Polisen) 14 50 20 8 3 4 1 100 3 200 + 53 Swedish Tax Agency (Skatteverket) 14 42 26 4 1 12 1 100 3 172 + 51 Swedish Board for Study Support (Centrala studiestödsnämnden) 6 20 22 8 3 33 8 100 3 180 + 15 Social Security Agency (Försäkringskassan) 4 17 21 24 21 11 2 100 3 212 -24 Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) 13 27 24 6 2 24 4 100 3 191 + 32

NORECOGNITION

(24%)

DON’TKNOW(4%)

”How do you think the following authorities are doing their job?”


Job performance/Trust in the Election Authority

Proportion of Swedes (among those having an opinion) that think that Election Authority is performing ”very well” or ”rather well” :

SOM-survey 2010 (POST ELECTION): 56 percent

Proportion of Swedes (among those having an opinion) that have ”very high” or ”rather high” trust in the Election Authority:

SNES 2010 (PRE ELECTION): 92 percent


Who has an opinion on Election Authority job performance?

• Politically interested• The younger citizens


Who thinks the Election Authority is doing a good job?

• The politically interested• The older• The well educated• Sympathisers to the established Riksdag parties


Job performance ”Election Authority”, post election periodSource: 2010 National SOM survey; estimates corrected for composition effects

Field work0=first two weeks1=week 3+42=week 5+63=week 7+8+94=week 10+

0.58 0.57 0.57 0.560.54

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

mea

n of

VA

LMY

ND

0 1 2 3 4


Re-election Campaign Panel 2011self recruited access panel (n=2000+)

”Do you think that the decision to arrange a reelection was a good or bad decision?”

PREPOST

ELEC ELECVery good 22% 15%Rather good 20% 20%Neither good nor bad 16% 16%Rather bad 19% 24%Very bad 15% 22%DK 7%

3%---------------------

100% 100%


Re-election Campaign Panel 2011self recruited access panel (n=2000+)

Reasons not to vote in the re-election 2011 (rank ordered)(% very important+rather important)

1. I distrust the politicians (45%)2. It was wrong to arrange a reelection (44%)3. I was busy/away from home (33%)4. No party represents my views in political matters (31%)5. I am not informed of the issues of the regional election (29%)6. My vote has no effect (23%)7. I do not trust that the counting of votes is fair (22%)8. I am not interested in politics (14%)9. I did not know about the election (4%)



(Valmyndigheten)


Citizens & Election SystemsWorkshop on electoral methods

KTH Stockholm2011-05-31

Professor HENRIK EKENGREN OSCARSSONHead of the SOM-institute, University of GothenburgPrincipal investigator Swedish National Election Studies


Andel som bedömer Valmyndighetens arbete

Modell 1: Kön+Ålder+

Utb

Modell 2: +Ort

Modell 3: +Hem

Modell 4: +Ideologi

Modell 5: +Parti

Formulär1 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 Politiskt intresse -0.26*** -0.25*** -0.25*** -0.25*** -0.26*** Kvinna -0.03** -0.04** -0.04** -0.04** -0.03* Ålder 16-85 -0.21*** -0.22*** -0.21*** -0.20*** -0.19*** Låg utbildning -0.01 -0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 Hög utbildning 0.03 0.03 0.04* 0.04* 0.03 Ren landsbygd -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 Sthlm, Gbg, Malmö -0.01 -0.00 -0.00 0.01 Jordbrukarhem -0.01 -0.01 0.02 Tjänstemannahem -0.03 -0.03 -0.02 Högre tjänstemannahem -0.00 -0.00 0.00 Företagarhem -0.06* -0.06* -0.05 Vänster-höger självplac. -0.09 -0.17 Vänsterpartiet 0.05 Socialdemokraterna 0.05 Centerpartiet -0.01 Folkpartiet -0.02 Moderaterna 0.05 Kristdemokraterna 0.02 Miljöpartiet 0.03 Sverigedemokraterna 0.08 Antal respondenter 3,111 3,044 2,917 2,917 2,785 McFadden pseudo R^2 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04


Andel som anser att Valmyndigheten sköter sitt arbete ”mycket bra” eller ”ganska bra”

Modell 1: Kön+Ålder

+Utb Modell 2:

+Ort Modell 3:

+Hem Modell 4: +Ideologi

Modell 5: +Parti

Formulär 1 -0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.00 Politiskt intresse -0.30*** -0.29*** -0.28*** -0.27*** -0.25*** Kvinna -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.04 Ålder 16-85 0.12*** 0.12*** 0.11** 0.11** 0.09* Låg utbildning -0.03 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.02 Hög utbildning 0.07*** 0.07*** 0.08*** 0.08*** 0.08*** Ren landsbygd -0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 Sthlm, Gbg, Malmö 0.03 0.05* 0.05* 0.05 Jordbrukarhem 0.02 0.02 0.01 Tjänstemannahem 0.00 0.00 -0.01 Högre tjänstemannahem -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 Företagarhem 0.03 0.03 0.03 Vänster-höger självplac. -0.03 0.15 Vänsterpartiet 0.16** Socialdemokraterna 0.14** Centerpartiet 0.18** Folkpartiet 0.18** Moderaterna 0.16** Kristdemokraterna 0.11 Miljöpartiet 0.20*** Sverigedemokraterna 0.02 Antal respondenter 2,252 2,205 2,115 2,115 2,032 McFadden pseudo R^2 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04

citizens & election systems workshop on electoral methods kth stockholm 2011-05-31 # kthwem

Documents

election authority

post election interviewsweden

pre election interviewsweden

game electoral

post election interview

kinds of electoral reforms

spring elections

seseparate elections