cities and climate change...2012/01/09 · urban vulnerability to climate change in europe, 70...
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Cities and Climate Change
Dr. Kevon Rhiney,
Department of Geography & Geology,
University of the West Indies.
GEOG3302: URBAN & REGIONAL PLANNING
Tuesday April 3, 2012
Introduction
“Despite the lack of consensus as to the exact pace, it is generally accepted that climate change is happening now, that anthropogenic emissions are contributing to this climate change, and that humanity can dramatically mitigate the impact of climate change by seriously reducing greenhouse gas emissions”
Introduction
• The average global temperature has increased by 0.76°C and sea level has risen by 17 cm since the 19th century (IPCC, 2007).
• Climate change will also bring about alterations in climate variability and extreme events.
• Vary on temporal and geographical scales
- Range DIRECTLY from drought to flooding, more heat waves, increased in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events
- Indirectly, decreases in food production, freshwater availability, ocean acidification etc.
Introduction
• Developing countries are likely to bear 75 percent of the costs of damages produced by climate change
• SIDS are the most vulnerable despite contributing the least to Climate Change
• Economic growth will not be able to counter the danger of climate change, especially if growth remains linked with increased emissions and accelerates climate change.
Population Matters??!!
• Pop dynamics critical for understanding the trajectory of global greenhouse gas emissions, and developing and implementing adaptation plans
• Population dynamics links into both cause and consequences of climate change
• Population long been focal point at discussions surrounding global environmental change
• Climate Change has risen to the top of the international environmental agenda in last 15 years
Urban Vulnerability to Climate Change
Climate Change poses serious threats to urban infrastructure, quality of life, and entire urban systems.
> 50% of worlds‟ pop live within 60km of the sea; 75% of all large cities are coastal
Developing countries are particularly vulnerable
Majority of the world‟s urban population live in vulnerable and ill-equipped environments
- 1 billion live in slums; likely to become environmental refugees
Urban Vulnerability to Climate Change In Europe, 70 percent of the largest cities have
areas that are particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels, and most of these cities less than 10 meters above sea level.
Fifteen of the world‟s 20 megacities are at risk from rising sea levels and coastal surges
Port cities in developing countries are particularly at risk of sea level rise
The IPCC (2007) predicts a rise in average sea level over the next 100 years ranging between 13 to 28 centimeters in a low scenario and 26 to 59 centimeters for a high scenario
Since CC will
undermine
countries’
efforts to
achieve SD
goals,
adaptation is
urgently
needed
Climate is
already
changing and
most
countries
don’t have
the adaptive
capacity to
respond
Already feeling the effects??
In 2003, more than 70,000 people died in Europe from a severe heat wave (World Bank 2009); mostly the elderly
Hurricanes, Flooding, Drought…
Cities and Climate Change
Adaptive capacity = wealth + available technology + appropriate decision-making capabilities + human capital + social capital + risk spreading (insurance) + management of information.
CC aggravates existing environmental, social and economic problems.
These changes will affect different aspects of spatial planning and the built environment.
Cities as Culprits??
Major contributors to Climate Change; cities are responsible for 75—80 per cent of all such emissions
Rapid Urbanization; Growth of megacities
Urban agglomerations major consumers of energy
Cities as the Solution
Better family planning; more urban means less growth
Cities as models of environmental efficiency,
Cities can reduce their per capita greenhouse gas emissions through consuming cleaner energy for instance
Sufficient scale to bring about meaningful actions.
Climate Change and Spatial Planning
Structural integrity of buildings; building fabrics; service infrastructure; use of open spaces
Rates of urbanization; institutional capacity; financial capacity
The role of local government authorities
- Usually overlooked in the articulation of action plans
- Yet CC impacts are „felt‟ at the local level
- Participatory governance
Environmental justice Concerned with how environmental „bads‟ and
„goods‟ are distributed across society Concern over (i) the equity of environmental
management interventions and (ii) nature of public involvement in decision-making
Poverty & the environment; Political ecology (see Dodman)
Ecological Footprint Method of auditing human use of nature in
relation to the assessed biophysical constraints of the globe as an indicator of sustainability
Carrying capacity
Biological
- Genetic diversity
- Resilience
- Biological productivity
Social system
- Cultural diversity
- Institutional sustainability
- Social justice
- participation
Economic
- Reducing poverty
- Enhance equity
- Increasing useful
goods & services
Objectives of Sustainable Development
Complex inter-
dependencies
Recognition of the
cost involved for
particular interest
groups
Sustainable Development & Cities
• Rising concentration of the world‟s pop. in urban centers presents a challenge to SD
• Urbanites are more dependent on markets for food, basic needs and services than rural dwellers
- Any threat to income have more profound impacts on poverty
- Low-income groups in developing world cities face substantial environmental health risks
- Inadequate sanitation, poor water supplies, poor housing conditions.
Sustainable Development & Cities
These problems are mediated e.g. through class, race and sex/gender differences
A laborer in Dhaka, Bangladesh
Sustainable Development & Cities
Cities and environmental issues
- 60% of the world‟s GNP is produced in cities
- Avg. each city of 1 mill. people daily consumes 625,000 tonnes of water, 2,000 tonnes of food & 9,500 tonnes of fuel
- Similarly, generates 500,000 tonnes of waste-water, 2,000 tonnes of solid waste & 950 tonnes of air pollutants
- Egypt, more than 10% of farmland has been lost to urban encroachment
Sustainable urban development
Cities cannot continue to prosper if the aggregate impact of their economies draws on global resources in unsustainable ways
Cities contribution to Global Climate Change
A need for social and environmental justice
Urban poor are the most vulnerable
IIED reports; BBC‟s „hot cities‟