cislunar space: the next frontier - spudis lunar resources

Cislunar Space: The Next Frontier

Paul D. SpudisLunar and Planetary Institute

ISDC, Huntsville ALMay 20, 2011

www.spudislunarresources.com

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Three Ages of SpaceflightThe “Space Race” Age

Racing the RussiansTo the Moon and backThe Value of Space

The “What now?” AgeSpace Shuttle: hammer looking

for a nailISS: Jumping off platform or

dead end?Robots or People?

The “Beyond LEO” AgeDestination where?Purpose what?The New Value of Space


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The ProblemThe ultimate goal in space is to go

anywhere, anytime with asmuch capability as we need

Spacecraft are mass- and power-limited and thus, capability-limited

They will remain so as long as weare restricted to what can belifted out of Earth’s gravity well

This restriction negatively impactsscientific capabilities,economic health, and nationalsecurity

To extend reach and capability, we must learn to usewhat we find in space to create new space faring

capabilities


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Space faring: Changing the RulesCurrent template

Custom-built, self-contained, mission-specific spacecraft

Launch on expendable vehiclesOperate for set lifetimeAbandon after useRepeat, repeat, repeat

New templateIncremental, extensible building

blocksExtract material and energy resources

of space to use in spaceLaunch only what cannot be

fabricated or built in spaceBuild and operate flexible, modular,

extensible in-space systemsMaintain, expand and use indefinitely


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What’s the value of exploration?Humans explore because it conveys an evolutionary

advantageExploration broadens experience and imagination,

permitting better prediction of the future, ensuringbetter odds for survival

Curiosity and its satisfaction is intellectually andemotionally satisfying

Exploration improves our ability to solve problemsIncreased imagination and knowledge base permits

recognition of innovative approaches and solutionsHelps focus energies on posing the right questions, or,

questions that can be addressed and answered

Exploration excites and inspires the creative,productive segment of society

Permits intellectual connections and relations thatmight not otherwise occur (the ‘ah-ha!’ syndrome)

Inspires effort; attempts to achieve things previouslythought to be out of reach

Frontiers are unknown, mysterious places thatstimulate imagination and illustrate newpossibilities


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Exploration ≠ ScienceExploration is going into the unknown,

probing the frontier, looking over thenext hill.It has structure, but is not directedDiscoveries sometimes build on each

other, sometimes are isolatedScience is the process by which we

explain natureIt has a well-defined, directed structure

(observation, hypothesis,experiment, verification)

Scientific knowledge is cumulative andself-correcting

Both are dynamic, not static. Scienceaccompanies and follows exploration.

Exploration precedes and enables science


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Exploration and Science

Exploration is broader and richerthan science – knowledgeacquisition PLUS:Security and asset protectionWealth creationSettlement and infrastructuredevelopment

Exploration enables scienceAccess to remote locales andexotic environmentsExploratory infrastructure permitsscientific investigation

“Exploration without science is tourism” – A famous NASA Official


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Why Human Spaceflight?People bring unique capabilities to space

explorationIntuitive and flexible - recognize problems

and improvise solutionsRepair and maintain complex equipment

and installationsConduct field science, requiring intense

interaction of humans with environmentMachines alone do not and will not possess

intelligence of necessary magnitude toexplore and utilize spaceRobots are good for remote, hostile

environments to provide first-orderreconnaissance

Robots can be designed to answer focusedquestions (hypothesis testing) or makeprecision measurements

We don’t always know ahead of time whatmeasurements are significant and which are irrelevant


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Human SpaceflightThe Ultimate Rationale

Study of Apollo samplestaught us key signs oflarge-body impact

We now know that largeobjects collide with Earthon a quasi-regular basis

Not a question of if, butwhen

Conclusion: We’re doomed

Needed: Multiple reservoirs of human culture


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A Key Policy Document

Speech by OSTP Director and President’sScience Advisor John Marburger atGoddard Symposium, March 15, 2006

Critical Points:Ultimate goal is to use space for benefit

of mankindIncorporate Solar System into our

economic sphereMoon is of unique significance -- closest

and most accessible source ofmaterials and energy out of Earth’sgravity well

Development of off-planet resourcesmakes entire Solar Systemaccessible

Critical architectural consideration:Space exploration budget must growat low level to be sustainable

http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=19999


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What’s the Mission?

Common themes from spacepolicy documents:Sustainable and affordable

programExplore with robots and

humansTest bed for systems and

procedures on the MoonLearn resource utilization on

the MoonCreate new space flight

capability

We are going to the Moon to learn the skills weneed to live and work productively on another world


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What Are These Skills?Arrive

Create transportation system to takehumans to and from the Moon

Use this system to access cislunarand translunar space

SurviveBuild habitat to safely house human

explorersProtect from environmental hazardsExtract consumables from local

materialsThrive

Create new infrastructure andcapabilities by using the materialand energy resources of the Moon

Extend this economic zone first tocislunar, then to translunar space


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What Kind of Space Program?

Space program originated andgrew in response to geopoliticalpressures

We then found it to be useful forother purposes (technicalinnovation, national drama)

Despite the documented value ofspace, we are still wedded toPR stunts as goals

Space must be relevant to nationalscientific, economic, andsecurity needs


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Waning InfluenceGeopolitical landscape is shifting

American sense of urgency, sharedsacrifice of Apollo is a merememory today

Emerging signs of a “space race”with new space powers

Management bloat and legalimpediments“Overhead” exceeds hardware and

operations costsPost-Cold War deterioration of

technical industrial infrastructureand knowledge

Budgetary environment“blank check” vs. COLA

Risk aversionSocietal and individual“Safety is our first priority” -- Really?

Then don’t goGoal aversion

Result of all of the above


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Cislunar Space: A New Strategic Arena

Cislunar: the volume of spacebetween Earth and Moon

Zones of cislunar spaceLEO, MEO, GEO, HEO, L-

pointsDifferent assets located at

various levels of cislunarAccess by machines and people

vital to national interestsModern national strategic needs

depend critically upon ability touse our satellite assets

Space power projection involvesboth protection of assets anddenial of assets to an adversary


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Historical Analogy for Cislunar Space:Alfred Thayer Mahan and The Influence of Sea Power on History (1890)

Mahan studied history of therise and fall of nations

Nations who control the seacontrol their destiny

The converse is also truePower projection is morally

neutral; it can be for thebenefit or to the detriment ofnations

Power projection can ensure ordeny commerce andfreedom of the seas

The “Great White Fleet” of the United States Navy 1907-1909


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Lessons from Shuttle and Station Programs

Large, distributed systems too bigto be launched from Earth canbe assembled in space

Humans and machines workingtogether can assemble, serviceand maintain complex spacesystems

Applying this paradigm to trans-LEO (cislunar) space requiresdevelopment of a transportationsystem that is affordable,extensible, and reusable

Developing the resources of the Moon enables thecreation of such a system (if you can reach the lunar

surface, you can access any other point in cislunar space)


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The Solution

The Goal

Expand human reach* beyond low Earth orbit

*Reach = the ability to send people and machines to any point within a givenvolume of space to perform whatever tasks are envisioned

The Mission

Establish a robotic and human presence on the Moon to learn howto use local resources of material and energy to create newspace faring capabilities


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An Affordable Lunar Return Architecture(Spudis and Lavoie, 2010)

MissionCreate a permanent human-tended lunar outpost to

harvest water and make propellantApproach

Small, incremental, cumulative stepsRobotic assets first to document resources, demonstrate

production methodsTeleoperation of robotic mining equipment from Earth.

Emplace assets and build outpost remotelyInvestigate, develop, and demonstrate metal and ceramic

fabrication for habitat and tool equipment useUse existing LV, HLV if it becomes available

Cost and ScheduleFits under existing run-out budget (< $7 B/year, 16 years,

aggregate cost $88 B, real-year dollars)Resource processing outpost operational halfway through

program (after 18 missions); end stage after 30missions: 150 mT water/year production

BenefitsPermanent space transportation systemRoutine access to all cislunar space by people and

machines; flexibility of purpose and operationsShifts philosophy to think about using local resources first

for propellant and materialsExperience living and working on another world


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Goals and PrinciplesExtend human reach beyond LEO by creating

a permanent, extensible space faringinfrastructure

Use the material and energy resources of theMoon to create this system

Lunar return by small, incremental,cumulative steps

Proximity of Moon permits progress prior tohuman arrival via robotic teleoperations

Innovative space systems: fuel depots,robotics, ISRU, reusable spacecraft,staging nodes

Paradigm shift to local production ofpropellant and materials as part of anymission design

Fit under estimated budget run-out ofAugustine Committee (2009)

Schedule is free variable; constant, steadyprogress but no deadlines


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Initial Steps

1. Communication/navigation satellitesPolar areas out of constant Earth LOS;

need comm, positional knowledge2. Polar prospecting rovers

Study and characterize water deposits,other substances, environment

3. ISRU demoHeat icy regolith to extract water; purify

and store as ice in cold traps4. Digger/Hauler rovers

Excavate regolith, transport feedstock tofixed stations for water extraction

5. Water tankersPurify and store extracted water


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Next Steps

6. Electrolysis unitsCrack water into hydrogen and oxygen; liquefy

into cryogens7. Supporting equipment

Robotic Landers - medium (500 kg payload),heavy (2 mT payload)

Power plants - extendable solar arrays,steerable on vertical axis to track sun atpoles

Cryo storage - store LOX, LH2 (use cold traps,25 K)

Material Fabricators - Process regolith for rapidprototype products and parts

8. Space-based assetsLEO depot - fuel lunar departure stagesLLO depot - staging node for reusable cargo

and human landers


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Program SummaryCreate a permanent, cislunar space

transportation system based upon theharvest and use of lunar water

Most infrastructure is emplaced andoperated robotically; people comewhen facilities and budgets are ready

Small incremental steps that build uponeach other and work together

Progress continually made, regardless ofbudgetary issues in any given year

Incremental approach greatly facilitatesboth commercial and internationalparticipation

Cislunar system is a “transcontinentalrailroad” in space, opening up thespace frontier to science, security andcommerce


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The Value of Lunar Resources

Lunar materials can be processedto make aggregate, glass,ceramics, solar cells, and metalsfor building structures on theMoon and in cislunar space

Propellant produced from lunarpolar water can make travelroutine within and throughcislunar space

Off-Earth propellant production willcompletely change the paradigmof spaceflight

Routine access to cislunar spacehas important economic,strategic and culturalimplications


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Beyond LEO: The Role of the Moon

A useful foothold and necessarystepping-stone into the space frontier

A logistics depot for cislunar spaceChange paradigm of spaceflight by

using lunar products to create atransportation system on theMoon and in cislunar space

A laboratory and platform for science

A planetary space station where we canlearn to live and work productively onanother world


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Affordable?!Means and Ends

Given the precarious nature of the nation’s finances, is any of thisrealistic?Space is intimately woven into the fabric of modern technological life

(economy and security)For this reason, the complete termination of the space program (or

any other government program, for that matter) is unlikelyThe question then is, “What do we do with what we have to spend?”

Need to return value (not “excitement”) to taxpaying publicCreating a cislunar transportation system with multiple uses and

multiple users is more viable and sustainable than a series of“stunt” missions to dead-end destinations, regardless of the“excitement” factor (or lack thereof)

Undertaking this type of lunar return has the potential to eventuallycreate wealth rather than consume it


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Coping With Limited ResourcesDifferent Strategies

1. Walk (run) awayBrig. Gen. Gideon Pillow, CSAThe current policy for NASA

2. Demand moreMaj. Gen. George B. McClellan, USAAugustine: “NASA needs an additional$ 3B/year to go beyond LEO”

3. Do the job with what you haveLt. Gen. U. S. Grant, USASmall step, incremental program that

moves forward under existing budget,no matter how difficult it is or howlong it takes


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Learning Curve


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For more information, go to:http://www.spudislunarresources.com

Or e-mail me at:[email protected]


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Rationale for Cislunar SpaceSpace benefits society in many areas, especially the use of satellite assets in orbits beyond LEO.

Earth’s deep gravity well is a significant cost deterrent to expanded activities in space. For beyond LEOmissions, most launch mass is propellant.

The International Space Station proves that human- and machine-assembled satellites can be as big andas capable as needed and unlimited by launch vehicle size.

We cannot routinely access orbits beyond LEO with people and machines to build and maintain suchsatellites today.

A system based around the manufacture and use of propellant made from lunar materials can reduce thecost for new space activities, enable routine access to and from the surface of the Moon, accessall other points in cislunar space, including GEO and other orbits useful for space assets; andenable human interplanetary flight (i.e., to Mars and beyond).

The Moon also offers other material and energy resources that can be used to create new space faringcapability, including regolith aggregate, glass and ceramics, metals and the fabrication of solarcells.

Both robotic and human presence is required on the Moon to enable and maintain production from lunarresources.

By going to the Moon to establish a permanent presence, we create a reusable, extensible andmaintainable (thus, affordable) transportation system, a “transcontinental railroad” for cislunarspace while expanding human reach beyond LEO.

Undertaking a program to develop and use off-planet resources creates wealth by developing andenabling new technology, opening new and previously unforeseen markets, thereby assuring thatfree market, democratic pluralism prevails in the new frontier of space (neither totalitarianism norcorporatism).

cislunar space: the next frontier - spudis lunar resources

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