cinnamonfot - dr. ian yeoman

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Tomorrows Tourist:Fluid and Simple Identity

Dr. Ian YeomanSchool of Management1

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PropositionIncreased wealth creates an identity that pushes the desire for travel and new experiences whereas decreased wealth returns us to basics and reflections on what is important to us, thus the terms fluid and simple identity.

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Fluid identity

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Source: Expedia/nVision | Base: 7,083 online respondents in 20 countries aged 16+, 2014The ideal vacation, the ideal experience :beach holidays and romantic breaks appeal the mostIf you could take only one holiday, what kind of holiday would you prefer?

Question wording: If you could take only one holiday, what kind of holiday would you prefer?Data taken from the Expedia.com Vacation Deprivation Survey, November 2011. The sample includes a nationwide cross-section of the employed adult population.4

Trend 1: Future of Affluence

Rising income has been the driving agent of modern society and is responsible for creating the demanding, sophisticated and well-informed consumer we recognise today. Wealth is the core driver for the propensity to travel in all markets5

Picture (Creative Commons Flickr) : vauvau 5

Why did Picassos Women of Algiers sell for 22,611,770,350 LKR recently?

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Photo credit : Creative Commons whiteafrican

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Trend 2: Accumulation of Social CapitalFor many 21st century global consumers, parading ones material wealth has long since been surpassed in importance by the display of our experiences, skills, achievements - and anything else which contributes to the sense of personal improvement

Picture : Creative Commons (Johannes_wl)7

Trend 2: Accumulation of Social CapitalFor many 21st century global consumers, parading ones material wealth has long since been surpassed in importance by the display of our experiences, skills, achievements - and anything else which contributes to the sense of personal improvement. Consumers in the West are moving away from ostentatious consumption as a way to acquire or affirm social status. In turn, quietly expressed savoir-vivre is becoming the default setting

Picture : Creative Commons (Johannes_wl)8

Top 3 topics European consumers enjoy talking about with othersSource: nVision Research | Base: 800-4,000 online respondents per country aged 16-64 (*China is 16-54), 2013123Czech RepHolidaysFamilyFoodDenmarkHolidaysBooksFoodFranceHolidaysFamilyBooksGermanyHolidaysBooksFoodHungaryFamilyHolidaysFoodIrelandHolidaysBooksTV showsItalyHolidaysBooksFoodNetherlandsHolidaysFoodBooksPolandHolidaysBooksProducts bought at good priceRussiaHolidaysTechnologyBooksSpainHolidaysBooksFamilySwedenHolidaysFoodBooks

Question wording : On a scale from 1 to 5, how much do you enjoy talking to your friends, either in person or online, about each of the following?

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Top 3 topics global consumers enjoy talking about with othersSource: nVision Research | Base: 800-4,000 online respondents per country aged 16-64 (*China is 16-54), 2013123ArgentinaHolidaysFamilyBooksAustraliaHolidaysFamilyFoodBrazilFoodTV showsProducts bought at good priceChinaTechnologyBooksFoodIndiaHolidaysFamilyTechnologyJapanFoodHolidaysTV showsSouth KoreaProducts bought at good priceTV showsHolidaysUSATV showsFoodFamily

Question wording : On a scale from 1 to 5, how much do you enjoy talking to your friends, either in person or online, about each of the following?

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Trend 3: Changing Meaning of LuxuryLuxury is no longer accessible only to a wealthy few. Under the weight of many social trends, its purpose and meaning have evolved to create a new generation of service opportunities - while emerging markets are creating hot demand for Western goods.

Picture : (Creative Commons) lamatin11

Source: nVision Research | Base: 1,000-5,000 online respondents per country aged 16-64, Sep 2014 Best definition of luxuryFirst ChoiceSecond ChoiceThird ChoiceGBGoing on expensive holidaysLiving in a nice areaEating good quality foodGermanyGoing on expensive holidaysLiving in a nice areaDriving an expensive carFranceGoing on expensive holidaysLiving in a nice areaDriving an expensive carSpainLiving in a nice areaHaving time on my ownGoing on expensive holidaysItalyGoing on expensive holidaysLiving in a nice areaDriving an expensive carIrelandGoing on expensive holidaysEating good quality foodLiving in a nice areaNetherlandsHaving time just to relaxHaving time on my ownGoing on expensive holidaysSwedenHaving time on my ownEating good quality foodHaving time just to relaxDenmarkHaving time just to relaxEating good quality foodLiving in a nice area

I would like you know to think about what luxury means to you. Looking at all these things, please say which of the following things would be the best description of luxury in your life? And which of the others is the second best description of luxury in your life? And which others would describe luxury to you?12

Source: nVision Research | Base: 1,000-5,000 online respondents per country aged 16-64, Sep 2014Best definition of luxuryFirst ChoiceSecond ChoiceThird ChoiceChinaWearing designer clothesDriving an expensive carGoing on expensive holidaysIndiaLiving in a nice areaDriving an expensive carGoing on expensive holidaysSouth KoreaWearing designer clothesDriving an expensive carGoing on expensive holidaysJapanGoing on expensive holidaysEating good quality foodHaving time just to relaxAustraliaGoing on expensive holidaysLiving in a nice areaHaving time just to relax

USAGoing on expensive holidaysLiving in a nice areaHaving time just to relaxBrazilGoing on expensive holidaysDriving an expensive carLiving in a nice areaArgentinaGoing on expensive holidaysLiving in a nice areaDriving an expensive carMexicoLiving in a nice areaGoing on expensive holidaysDriving an expensive car

I would like you know to think about what luxury means to you. Looking at all these things, please say which of the following things would be the best description of luxury in your life? And which of the others is the second best description of luxury in your life? And which others would describe luxury to you?13

Trend 4: Immerse MeThe promise of an ever more personalised, immersive and magical media and leisure experience. The era of inner space travel has now opened. The tools of immersion-building are, however, daily being sharpened by relentless technological innovation. New services -from VR headsets to holographic interfaces - collectively hint at what might lie ahead : a future where real-life experiences can be convincingly imitated in digital code; and where storytelling brands can magically transport us into specially-crafted spaces where the user can suspend her disbelief with such ease that she genuinely believes she isactively present in the faux moment

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Keyboard

Mouse

Touch

Body

BrainThe historical trend towards more human interfaces

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Trend 5: Demographic Change

Source: Yeomaan (2008)

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The Lifestage DelayThe general shift towards delaying traditional life events - marriage, childbirth, homebuying, retirement - until later in life.

Picture Source : CC: Eightinc18

Once Is Not EnoughTracking the human consequences of multiple experience peaks and, from lifestage to lifestage, the death of only once and never again.

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Photo credit: Creative Commons (failing_angel)19

Perfection of the Body

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Please say which of the following things would be the best description of luxury in your life.% who selected a materialistic, experiential or time option (see notes for definitions).Source: nVision Research | Base: 5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2011Differences in the meaning of luxury for different ages

213.6 Luxury PreferencesOne of the most dynamic commercial questions for the forecaster is : what is the definition, now and tomorrow, of luxury. For Western European societies, it would generally be axiomatic that as incomes rise (and educational levels with them), so our collective taste for luxury as life-enriching experience as opposed to opulent possession-gathering will naturally swell. Of course, both aspects can grow in significance. Income growth, obviously, allows many more to enjoy/expect crisp Burgundy with delicatessen food and many more too to visit a temporary Picasso exhibition in London or fly long-haul to visit Alice Springs and Uluru. For many in certain lifestage moments, simply free, unencumbered time will be luxury itself.

Our trended analysis would tend to confirm that, as one ages, the appetite for what we call materialistic goods dwindles; luxury is more likely to be sought in other places. Naturally, for those consumers who are younger and/or whose buying power is not advanced, the luxury appetite tends to alight still on goods at once conventional and tangible. A small villa with a shared pool in summertime Alicante will still be a most emphatic slap of luxury for many in the UK. But the cynosure of quality experience, perhaps where the service enjoyed is a deluxe as any specific product, will continue to throw many opportunities open to brands in the leisure, cultural and entertainment trades.

KeyMaterialistic: Driving an expensive/nice car, Enjoying the best home entertainment technology, Wearing designer/nice clothes, Having beautiful/nice home furnishings. Experiential: Eating good quality food, Going on expensive/nice holidays, Living in a nice area, Having toiletries and pampering myself. Time: Having time on my own, Having time just to relax.













Trend 6: Have-It-All SocietyAlthough some worry aloud about the stresses it can bring, the notion that all of us - but women especially - should lead lives full of success, contentment and ambition is one which continues to earn considerable support.

Photo: (cc Laika slips the lead)25

Underpinned by rising affluence, the drive to fulfil consumption desires that stretch beyond those of pure necessity and encompass something more meaningful is a force of modern consumerism.Trend 7: Experience Economy

Photo: (cc Nick@)26

The average UK consumer changes there hairstyle every 18 months (Yeoman 2008)

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Trend 8: LiberalismSocially liberal attitudes have become embedded throughout much of our global society, seriously influencing both inter-personal and corporate communications. But tolerance of human difference is far from universal and dissenting voices continue to resist liberalisation in all its forms. 28

Photo: (cc Lis Catenaci)28

Consumer appetite for empowering, time-saving services and devices in the context of a time-sensitive cultural landscape. Trend 9: Culture of Immediacy29

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30UK Gen Y and UK Gen X: around 50% are interested.A service/device that detected your location and suggested interesting things to spontaneously see and do in the nearby area, intelligent automated systems are on there waySource: nVision Research Base: 5000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2015 February

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Simple Identity

Research by the Trajectory Group (Flatters & Wilmott 2009) highlights that affluent consumers have revealed mounting dissatisfaction with excessive consumption. Many desire a wholesome and less wasteful life. As such, there is a desire to get back to nature, something that is tranquil, basic, rooted, human and simple (Yeoman 2008). As a consequence, the desire for more authentic and simple luxury experiences accelerates.

Paul Flatters Trajectory Group31

Trend 10: Living Without the Boom Oil price starts to fallJune 2014Petrol price warsOctober 2013UK food prices falling August 205Global food prices fallApril 2015Price of oil, $/barrel Global food price index

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Image: Bjrn Koblow (Creative Commons)32

Trend 11: Authenti-seekingModern consumers aspire to collect authentic products and experiences and are learning to view suspiciously all that is artificial, generic and mass-produced.

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Picture : Creative Commons (Ara Pehlivanian)33

In praise of slowness

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So it seems that people are generally welcoming of the growing intensity of their lives, but they are also beginning to search new oases of time and space to complement (but not replace) their hectic hours. There's a growing perception, both from consumers and business alike, that downtime can actually be beneficial.Several organisations have already started to tap into this need for time-oasis with, for example, a vast array of new holiday formats emerging (such as rural retreats, remote beach getaways, spa resorts etc). The Japanese-style Yotel in Londons Gatwick Airport offers luxurious and stylish cabins for rent for travellers with very early departures or who might have a long layover between flights or are delayed for hours. Four hours in a standard cabin costs a very affordable 25 ( 40 for a premium cabin). Here you can snooze the hours away comfortably and in style. A similar concept is found in the Vancouver Airport and New Yorks Empire State Building where MetroNaps operates an urban catnapping business. For $14 you can treat yourself to 20 minutes in their very futuristic (luxurious) looking sleep pods.Meanwhile, the slow travel movement emerges out of eco-ethical concerns but springs from the trend known as authenti-seeking (see nVision report of the same name). The challenge to consumerism posed by global warming could make the slow travel revolution a very real phenomenon. People will not be able to jet off everywhere so they will have to become more patient and welcoming of less plugged-in, less always-on-the-go lifestyles. The slow travel phenomenon takes this into account it advocates train journeys across Europe and local excursions.The slow travel, slow design, slow food developments are all about having fun and active experiences but here the emphasis is on taking a step back, having a more authentic moment and savouring time. This represents a very obvious opportunity to marketers. The future of luxury as time is already with us. Luxurys Fourth Dimension has arrived.

Trend 12: Story Ingredients

Swiss Netgrannies35

Craft and real human beings make for instant stories to. Get inspired by:

Swiss Netgranny (http://netgranny.ch) is a collective of 15 grannies recruited by Swiss fashion label Tarzan (http://www.tarzan.ch). The grannies knit socks on demand and sell them online. Customers can choose their favorite granny by picture, pick the color of their socks, or opt for a granny surprise design. It will take a granny approximately two weeks to knit a pair of socks, which costs EUR 26, delivery included.

Danish Mormor.nu (http://www.mormor.nu) sells traditional handmade baby and children's wear online (Mormor.nu is Danish for 'Grandma.now'). All products are handmade, from pure wool, alpaca wool or cotton. Old knitting and crochet techniques and patterns have been revived, and colors and materials updated, making the products meet modern demands for fashionable children's clothing, as well as for old-fashioned quality and honest materials. In fact, the company's employees stem from an era when everything was made by hand, the youngest employee being 68 years old. Cool little touch: clothes come with a small nametag signed by the grandmother that made the item.

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Trend 13: Local PreferenceConcerns about the environment and Globalisation - as well as the inherent fondness which many feel for the place they call home - swell together to stimulate enduring support for all things produced, sourced or distributed locally.

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The rise of consumers who are confident, expectant and ever more willing to desert once favoured companies when even the slightest bit disappointed (by service, value, quality, experience).Trend 14: Demanding Consumers

Photo: (Creative Commons) Atomic Taco39

Trend 15: The Rise of Mercurial Consumption40

The Vatican is to start a low-cost airline offering pilgrims the chance to visit holy sites across the world. The airline made its inaugural flight in August 2007 with an itinerary that took pilgrims from Romes Fiumicino airport to Frances shrine of Lourdes; flights to other destinations including the shrine of Fatima in Portugal, the shrine of the Madonna of Guadalupe in Mexico and Santiago di Compostella in Spain may be offered in the future. Nice touch: aircraft interiors feature sacred inscriptions. Flights will be operated by small Italian airline Mistral Air (http://www.mistralair.it), whose main base is Rome Ciampino Airport. The Vatican hopes more than 150,000 people per year will board one of Mistral Airs planes.

Picture courtesy of EPA.

And so on. Well add a few more FOREVER TRENDS in one of the updates of this report, probably KIDS KA-CHING and an update on BOOMING BUSINESS, but most of this is or should be on your radar anyway!

* For specific tips on how to apply FOREVER TRENDS to your business, please visit the Report Tips section at http://www.trendwatching.com/trendreport/extras*

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Trend 16: The Decline of Extreme Experience Seeking

Slowdown, halting and reserving of an identityExperiences that are tranquil, basic, rooted, human and simpleThrift, mercurial consumption and functionality Advice, networks and predictive behaviourRole of authority and governanceDissatisfaction with excessiveness and frivolous

Conclusion: Is it a simple identity?42

Contact details:Dr Ian YeomanEmail: [email protected]: www.tomorrowstourist.com

Data:Future Foundationwww.futurefoundation.net

References:Yeoman, I (2008) Tomorrows Tourist, Elsevier, Amsterdam

Yeoman, I (2012) 2050: Tomorrows Tourism. Channelview, Bristol

Flatters, P & Wilmot, M (2009) Understanding the Post Recession Consumer. Harvard Business Review. Aug, pp106-112

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cinnamonfot - dr. ian yeoman

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