christoph frei generalsekretär des word energy council€¦ · christoph frei generalsekretär des...
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Christoph FreiGeneralsekretär des Word Energy Council
SPEEDING UP THE CHANGE WITH GLOBAL INNOVATION
© World Energy Council 2018 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
GRAND TRANSITION, DIGITAL REVOLUTION & NEW ENERGY REALITIES
@chwfrei@WECouncil
© World Energy Council 2018 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
Carbon Intensity Reduction1970-2015
% reduction p.a. 1970-2015Actuals
Note: Positive % changes denote a reduction in CO2 emissions [Gt] per GDP [USD]Source: Total Economy Database, BP (2015) Statistical Review, IPCC (2015) “AR5, Synthesis Report”;
2015-2060de-carbonization required to achieve 1000 GtCO2 by 2100
Note: Assumes global GDP growth of 2.6%
0,6%
-0,4
%
2,7%
-0,7
%
0,4%
2,2%
2,9%
1,0%
0,2%
1,4% 1,
9%
0,2%
2,5% 2,1% 3,
3%
1,0%
0,5%
0,2%
2,4%
-0,4
%
1,0%
2,2%
3,0%
1,0%
6%
China India Germany Saudi Arabia Spain United StatesUnited
KingdomWorld
Average1000 GtCO2
by 2100
1970-2000 2000-2014 1970-2014
from 1%/yr
to 6%/yr
© World Energy Council 2018 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil 30
• The Issues Monitor assesses 42 issues in a high-level overview, covering four categories:
1. Macroeconomic Risks2. Geopolitics3. Business Environment4. Energy Vision & Tech
• The responses are translated into three assessed dimensions:
1. Impact (x axis)2. Uncertainty (y axis)3. Urgency (size of
bubble)
What is the Issues Monitor
© World Energy Council 2018 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
Issues Monitor - Global Trends
• Similar picture to last year: Consolidation of energy transition trends with high emphasis on renewables and energy efficiency
© World Energy Council 2018 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil 32
Tracking Innovation since 2010
• Technology innovation clusters of renewable energies, electric storage, & innovative transport are moving up.
• This technology push is going hand in hand with innovation in new market designs and decentralised systems.
© World Energy Council 2018 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil 33
Tracking Centralised issues since 2010
• Traditional baseload generation (i.e. coal, nuclear, etc.) are all very present in the global fuel mix now and in future projections, but decentralisation continues its push.
• Renewable energy and energy efficiency goals are keeping most countries busy.
© World Energy Council 2018 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil 34
Tracking Trade Barriers since 2010
• Trade barriers defined as constraining or enabling green growth (e.g. through technology transfer, tariffs on green goods and services, local content requirements, border tax adjustment) is on significant upwards move since 2011.
© World Energy Council 2018 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
17/11 Mexico’s Energy Auction$19.18/MWh average price
17/10 300MW in Saudi Arabia$17.86/MWh average price
© World Energy Council 2018 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
100 W
“uberisation in energy”
Internet of things (IoT) in energy
automating transactions between large numbers of small devices
enabled by distributed ledgers / blockchain
has potential to deliver system services at scale
and thereby reduce physical infrastructure needs
© World Energy Council 2018 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
electric StreetScooterdo it yourself DHL -style
© World Energy Council 2018 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
No ‘all electric’ vision: Green molecules, building on existing supply chains
green fuels from renewable electricity (power-to-X) include hydrogen, ammonia, methane, methanol, formic acid, diesel, gasoline, or kerosene
“power-to-X is a necessary element of the global energy transition” for storability, cost, availability and acceptability considerations due to reusing existing infrastructure [WEC Germany, frontiereconomics, 181018]
global trade is key for reasons of cost and resources availability
potential scale: today’s oil production is about equivalent to 2-3 times the electricity production in terms of energy
© World Energy Council 2018 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
New business models:Rural electrification
Digitalization & decentralization:Rural household solutions
© World Energy Council 2018 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil @chwfrei@WECouncil
Energy realities are shifting. Faster than ever.
• The D3 driven transition offers a unique opportunity to achieve more secure, affordable and clean energy for all.
• Electricity is the new oil. The digit is the new battery.
• However: The way to Trilemma heaven needs green liquids.
• 100% energy access can be achieved by 2030.
Act now.
© World Energy Council 2018 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
PRE-DETERMINED FACTORS: The Grand Transition
Population / Workforce
New technologies
Planetary boundaries
Shift in power
Pace of innovation and productivity
Int’l governance & geo-political change
Priority given to climate change
‘Tools for action’ - markets vs state
CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES
Modern Jazz
Market mechanisms, technology
innovation, energy access for all
Unfinished Symphony
Strong policy, long-term planning, united
climate action
Hard Rock
Fragmented scenario, inward looking
policies, low global cooperation
THREE ALTERNATIVE PATHWAYS to 2060
Most recent set of scenarios were introduced by the Council in 2016 with focus on climate negotiations.
41
World Energy Scenarios (2016): at glance Are you listening to more than one side of the stor y of energy transition?
© World Energy Council 2018 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
Demand peaks for coal and oil
… have the potential to take the world from “Stranded Assets” to “Stranded Resources”.
0
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6
2000 2014 2030 2060
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2000 2014 2030 2060
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2014 2030 2060
Coal Demand(‘000 MTOE)
Oil Demand(mb/d)
Natural Gas Demand(‘000 MTOE or kbcm)
History Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock
© World Energy Council 2018 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Hard Rock
Modern Jazz
Unfinished
SymphonyExpected increase in temperature*Modern Jazz: ~ 3 °CUnfinished Symphony: ~ 2 - 2,3 °CHard Rock: ~ 4 °C IPCC 2°C-Target
* compared to pre-industrial levels
Source: World Energy Council, Paul Scherrer Institut, Accenture Strategy
Global CO 2-Emissions (in bn t)
43
© World Energy Council 2018 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil44
Plausible: WEC MJ (Modern Jazz), WEC US (Unfinished
Symphony), WEC HR (Hard Rock), Shell M (Mountain), Shell O
(Ocean), Statoil Rf (Reform), Statoil Rv (Rivalry), Ener-Brown, IEEJ
AT (Advanced Technology)
Outlooks: IEA CP (Current Policies), IEA NP (New Policies), EIA Ref
(Reference), IEEJ Ref (Reference), BP (Evolving Transition), CEPSA
Ref (Reference), Exxon (Reference), Ener-Blue, DNV GL
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2000 2014 2030 2060
CO
2 e
mis
sio
ns
fro
m f
ue
l co
nsu
mp
tio
n [
Gt
CO
2]
Plausible Scenarios
History
WEC MJ
WEC US
WEC HR
Shell M
Shell O
Statoil Rf
Statoil Rv
IEEJ AT
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2000 2014 2030 2060
Outlooks
History
IEA CP
IEA NP
EIA Ref
IEEJ Ref
BP ET
CEPSA Ref
Exxon
DNV GL
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2000 2014 2030 2060
Normative Scenarios
History
IEA SD
Shell S
Statoil Rn
IRENA 662
EnerGreen
BP EFT
IPCC P1
IPCC P2
IPCC P3
IPCC P4
Normative: IEA SD (Sustainable Development), Shell S (Sky),
Statoil Rn (Renewal), IRENA 662 (66% below 2°C), Ener-Green,
IPCC P1 (Low Energy Demand), IPCC P2 (Sustainability), IPCC P3
(Middle of the Road), IPCC P4 (Fossil-Fuelled Development)
CO2 emissions from fuel combustion
© World Energy Council 2018 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
UK
ENERGY TRILEMMA IN 2060
© World Energy Council 2018 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil @chwfrei@WECouncil
Energy realities are shifting. Faster than ever.
• The D3 driven transition offers a unique opportunity to achieve more secure, affordable and clean energy for all.
• Electricity is the new oil. The digit is the new battery.
• However: The way to Trilemma heaven needs green liquids.
• 100% energy access can be achieved by 2030.
Act now.