christian berthold uwe brandenburg warszawa, april 2008

Internationalisation in the face of demographic change:

student recruitment and its role in the upcoming decades

Christian BertholdUwe Brandenburg

Warszawa, April 2008

Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008

Content

Demographic development in Germany

Important markets (new and old) for HEIs

Market entry: highly individualised

Options for Poland?!


Who we are?

CHE Centre for Higher Education Development

CHE non profit / CHE Consult

One brand – two companies

CHE non profit

– Think tank to stimulate reforms in HE-System

– Rankings

CHE Consult is a consultancy

– for German and international HEIs

– for the ministeries of the federal states


Impact to Higher Education

People are growing older

– small impact to HE-System, more to society at large

Declining population

– fewer traditional students

– increasing importance of further qualification and life long learning

– increasing importance of foreign students

– need for recruitment-strategies to disadvantaged people (socio-economically)

– need for recruitment-strategies to migrants

Increasing diversity

– growing drop out rates

– need for new didactical concepts for divers students



2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 20452035

2007 – 20132007 – 2013

2020 – 20302020 – 2030

Younger Group (20 – 25)

Elder Group (60 – 65)

Source: StBA 2004 – 10. koordinierte Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung, Variante 5


in millions

Progression of age group population development for 20-25 and 60-65 year-olds (2005-2050)



Predicted demand for HE Enrolments in Germany, 2007 - 2020

-20.000

0

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.00020

07

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Surplus of Demand Surplus of Supply Balance

2005


Data Atlas for the German HE-System

Two purposes:

Mapping and analysing local quantitative and qualitative impacts of demographic change on Higher Education Institutions (HEIs)

Creating a database for the development of recruitment and institutional strategies for European HEIs


Data Atlas for the German HE-System

Conclusions

Demographic change is not only a matter of quantitiy, but also quality

Regionally uneven demand Higher rates of participation in HE can

overcompensate the demographic change Potential candidates have to be turned into

enrolments Domestic demand should not overrule

internationalisation


University Konstanz

Info-BoxOverall number of first-year-students at the University Konstanz in 2005 (Educational Germans): 1.757

Most resourceful districts1. Kreis Konstanz: 12,3% (216)2. Bodenseekreis: 6,7% (118)3. Kreis Ravensburg: 4,7% (82)4. Schwarzwald-Baar-Kreis: 3,5%

(61)5. Kreis Tuttlingen: 3,2% (56)

Most resourceful Länder1. Baden-Württemberg:74,2% (1.304)2. Bayern: 7,8% (137)3. Nordrhein-Westfalen: 4,7% (83)

Catchment Area Up toUp toUp toUp toand more


Info-Box

Overall Number of first-year-students at the Universität Frankfurt in 2005 (Educational Germans): 4.317

Most resourceful districts1. Frankfurt a.M. (Stadt): 22,1% (956)2. Main-Kinzig-Kreis: 8,0% (345)3. Kreis Offenbach: 7,8% (338)4. Hochtaunuskreis: 4,6% (200)5. Offenbach a.M.: 3,9% (169)

Most resourceful Länder1. Hessen: 72,0% (3.107)2. Baden-Württemberg: 7,7% (331)3. Rheinland-Pfalz: 4,5% (193)4. NRW: 4,3% (184)

Catchment Area Up toUp toUp toUp toand more

University Frankfurt / Main - 2005



Market analyses:– British Council „Vision 2020“– IDP „Global Student Mobility 2025“– CHE „Analysing the Future Market – Target Countries

for German HEIs” What can be the interests of HEIs in international

students?– Quantitative: student numbers, return on investment– Qualitative: diversity, student performance, political

aspects, reputation


Global trends

Bedarf an Studienplätzen in Mio

97,3

37

9,6 8,1

26,7 24,9

4,9 1,4

262,8

158,9

60,944,6 42,9 41,3

11,6 2,1

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Welt Asien Indien China Amerika Europa Afrika Ozeanien

2000 2025

Demand of University Places in Mio.

Sources: IDP and British Council


Anzahl der weltweit mobilen Studierenden

7,2

5,8

2,1

3,3

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2003 2010 2020 2025

in M

io

Number of globally mobile students

Sources: IDP and British Council



Germany

How important is Germany

for the target country?

What is the quantitative potential of the target country?

What is the importance of the target countryfor German HEIs?

UNESCO’s Global Education Digest top 5 destination countries

Size of age group 15-24, based on UN projection data

Share of one country within the international student body in Germany (DAAD Data)



0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000

Japan

Sudan

Uganda

Turkey

Iran

Russian Federation

Vietnam

Egypt

Mexico

Philippines

Ethiopia

Brazil

Indonesia

Pakistan

Nigeria

USA

China

India

Size of age group 15-24 (in 1000)



0 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000

Georgia

Italy

India

Romania

South Korea

Spain

Austria

France

Cameroon

Ukraine

Turkey

Morocco

Russian Federation

Poland

Bulgaria

China

Number of international students (Bildungsausländer)



How to analyse the markets? CHE approach:– Population: age group– Education:

• Participation rates (secondary, tertiary)• Tuition fees

– Economic:• GDP per capita• GINI coefficient• Knowledge Economy Index (KEI)

– Data related to Germany:• Development of Bildungsausländer and first year students• Enrolment requirements• Country characteristics

17 countries analysed



POLANDAge Group Development (15-24 year-olds in 1000s)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000


Market entry: highly individualised

Instruments:– Offshore– Education Cities– Degree franchising– Distance learning– Second campus at home– Direct recruitment– Vertical recruitment

Instruments and interests have to match (matrix) 5 case studies: Brazil, China, Poland, Turkey,

USA

Berthold, Christian

was ist das?


Options for Poland

As resource country:– In the next 10 years, West-German HEIs overflooded

with students because of short term demographic development

– But: East German HEIs have large potential from now onwards!

As recruiting country:– Analysis of current situation needed– Differentiation between traditional resource countries

and new target countries– Individualised strategies needed, market entry modes

are crucial!

Berthold, Christian

warum crucial?

christian berthold uwe brandenburg warszawa, april 2008

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