Chris Elfring, Director

The National Academies

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

AMS PPPFApril 22, 2009

The BASC Mission

conducts studies/workshops on emerging scientific and policy issues in response to specific requests from federal agencies and others;

provides program reviews, issue analysis, assessment of priorities; helps ensure that research efforts are responsive to national needs and

fosters application of that research; facilitates communication and collaboration among academia, industry,

and government; provides a forum to address atmospheric and climate research needs,

policy issues, and the provision of weather and climate services; assists U.S. participation in international research efforts in the

atmospheric and climate sciences.

… advance understanding of the earth's atmosphere and climate, and serve as a source for objective, independent advice to the federal government and others.

The Climate Research Committee

Provides focused oversight to NRC studies pertaining to climate;

Advises government agencies on matters pertaining to scientific aspects of climate and climate change;

Serves as the U.S. National Committee for the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and maintains liaison with the WCRP;

Maintains coordination with relevant NRC entities with climate-related responsibilities; and

Takes the initiative to promote progress in climate research, such as by organizing meetings and workshops.

… is a standing committee under BASC – formed in 1981 to focus attention on those aspects of atmospheric, oceanic, and related research aimed at advancing understanding of climate variability and change.

Why the Academies? Independence (non-profit, non-government)

freedom to be critical Balance (range of perspectives represented; report is

based on consensus)expertise to evaluate and consider key issues

Objectivity (pro bono; conflict of interest procedures)freedom from financial consequences, undue bias

Quality (NRC oversight, external peer review)ensure that recommendations are well supported

Reputation (credibility, history, stature of participants)“the gold standard”

Each activity is conducted by a group of volunteer experts, selected for that specific task, and overseen by the National Research Council.

Criteria for Studies

some real impact (on science, an agency, or the nation) or contribute something unique

clearly stated objectives and a well-defined end product

appropriate for the NRC consensus approach and not better done by some other entity

we have access to the right individuals with the necessary expertise and willingness to participate

one or more sponsors have a demonstrated interest in the project

Sample BASC Studies

    

Type: Broad policy guidance to an agency

Origin: NSF-National Science Board

Process: Two phases to provide initial input and more detailed analysis

Example: Advice on Future Directions

Type: Independent view of science controversy

Origin: Congress Process: Fast track – 6

months (2 meetings, 1 a large public input event)

Example: Science Controversy

Example: Technical Focus

Type: Interface of science and technology

Origin: NASA, NOAA Process: Focused, fast-

track to give concrete guidance for decision-making

Example: Broad Issue of Interest

Type: Guidance to government with broader implications

Origin: NOAA Process: Regular “full” study

with multiple meetings, approximately 15 months

Example: Peer Review

Type: Provide Independent Peer Review a document (or program)

Origin: NOAA/CCSP Process: Focused, fast

track review (read, one meeting, write, and deliver

in 6 months)

Review of CCSP Synthesis and Assessment

Products

1.1, 5.2, 3.3, 3.2, 2.4, 1.3

Climate at the National Academies Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC) Climate Research Committee (CRC) Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change

(CHDGC) Space Studies Board (SSB) Ocean Studies Board (OSB) Polar Research Board (PRB) Water Science and Technology Board (WSTB) Board on Life Sciences (BLS) Institute of Medicine (IOM) Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources (BANR) Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology (BEST) Board on Energy and Environmental Studies (BEES) Transportation Research Board (TRB)

Examples of Non-BASC Climate Work

Informing Decisions in a

Changing Climate

Climate-Related Current Projects America’s Energy Future

The Importance of Deep-Time Geologic Records for Understanding Climate Change Impacts

Potential Energy Savings and Greenhouse Gas Reductions From Transportation

Relationships Among Development Patterns, Vehicle Miles Traveled, and Energy Consumption

Health, Environmental, and Other External Costs and Benefits of Energy Production and Consumption

Intra-seasonal to Inter-annual Climate Prediction and Predictability

Congressional Request

“…investigate and study the serious and sweeping issues relating to global climate change and make recommendations regarding what steps must be taken and what strategies must be adopted in response to global climate change, including the science and technology challenges thereof.”

The Department of Commerce Appropriations Act of 2008 (Public Law 110-161) calls for NOAA to execute an agreement with the National Academy of Sciences to establish a committee that will:

Key Aspects of Study Strategy

Q&A approach Future and action-oriented US focus, recognizing international context Emphasizes short-term / long-term timeframes Utilizes and builds on existing information Flexible/practical - each group to identify and target

important sectors/stakeholders, spatial scales, and decision makers for their questions

Policy relevant

Key Aspects of Study Strategy

Will produce 5 reports: 4 panel reports by late 2009-early 2010 1 final committee report by spring 2010

Special workshops held as needed to gather information or focus on specific topics (e.g., geo-engineering)

Suite of communication activities, including the Summit, a final Symposium, opportunities for input and feedback, study website, derivative products, & outreach activities

Goal: to inform decision makers at all levels and across the many sectors facing critical decisions related to climate change

Public-Focused Products Ecological Impacts of Climate Change Understanding and Responding to Climate Change What You Need to Know About Energy Earth Observations from Space CD Reports in Brief

Cost of Studies (1997-2007)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

BASC and the AMS Community Interest in many similar

issues Engage many of the

same experts and stakeholders

Looking to have impact Looking to provide

leadership and scientific voice in decision making

Have different mechanisms for action

Sits within large, diverse organization

Fundamental constraint of providing advice “when asked”

Could AMS or PPPF ask for a BASC study?

Contact Information

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

The National Academies

500 Fifth Street NW

Washington DC 20001 celfring@nas.edu

www.nationalacademies.org/basc

(202) 334-3512