1

China’s Low Carbon Scenario under global 2 degree target

Kejun JIANGKjiang@eri.org.cn

Energy Research Institute, China

Workshop on Low Carbon Development PolicyOct.18, Beijing

ERI, ChinaERI, China

Keyword: Transition – mitigation to reach some climate change targets

200020202040 20602080 2100-5

0

5

10

15

200020202040 20602080 2100-5

0

5

10

15

2000 20202040 206020802100-5

0

5

10

15

N=76N=27

Category III(< 440-485 ppm CO2)

Category II(< 400-440 ppm CO2)

without neg. emissions

with neg. emissions

Em

issi

ons

(GtC

)

Category I(< 400 ppm CO2)

N=19

3

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.0019

90

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

2060

2065

2070

2075

2080

2085

2090

2095

2100

坐标

轴标

题CO2

L.A

Africa

M.E

S.E.Asia

CPA

EFSU

P‐OECD

W‐OECD

USA

0 

500 

1000 

1500 

2000 

2500 

3000 

3500 

4000 

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

百万

吨碳

CO2排放量

Baseline

LC

ELC

2度情景

Is ThisReal? Feasible?

Is ThisReal? Feasible?

Go much behind the pictures

Present in detail for key factors

Join modeling forums/workshops/projects

Make study on key factors: economy structure change, carbon pricing, roadmap for new technologies, CCS etc.

Make data transparency

Publication/public available

Keep a good modeling research team for long time

6

What’s the future of China’s low carbon policy: key factors

• Economic structure optimization policies• Energy efficiency policies• Renewable energy/nuclear power generation oriented policies• CCS• Low carbon consumption/ lifestyle• Land use emission reduction policies: so far relatively poor• Climate change target: China is key part of that• Can we pay for it? Cost and benefit

77

工业分部门投资

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

年份

亿元

建筑业

自来水的生产和供应业

煤气的生产和供应业

蒸汽热水生产供应业

电力生产供应业

其他工业

仪器仪表文化办公用机械

电气机械及器材、电子及通信设备制造业

交通运输设备制造业

普通机械、专用设备制造业

金属制品业

有色金属

黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业

非金属矿物制品业

橡胶制品业, 塑料制品业

化学纤维制造业

医药制造业

化学原料及制品制造业

炼焦业

石油加工

印刷业记录媒介的复制, 文教体育用品制造业

造纸及纸制品业

木材加工及竹藤棕草制品业、家具制造业

服装皮革及其他纤维制品制造

纺织业

烟草加工业

食品饮料加工、制造业

非金属矿采选业, 其他矿采选业, 木材及竹材采运业

有色金属矿采选业

黑色金属矿采选业

天然气开采业

石油

Investment by industrial sectors

8

Products output in major sectors, Low Carbon and ELC

Unit 2005 2020 2030 2040 2050Steel Million ton 355 610 570 440 360Cement Million ton 1060 1600 1600 1200 900

GlassMillioncases

399 650 690 670 580

Copper Million ton 2.6 7 7 6.5 4.6Ammonia Million ton 8.51 16 16 15 12Ethylene Million ton 5.1 7.2 7 6.5 5.5Soda Ash Million ton 14.67 23 24.5 23.5 22Casutic Million ton 12.64 24 25 25 24Paper Million ton 62.05 110 115 120 120FertilizerMillion ton 52.2 61 61 61 61Aluminum Million ton 7.56 34 36 36 33Paper Million ton 46.3 50 50 50 45Calcium caMillion ton 8.5 10 8 7 4

9

Unit energy use for key products, LCS Scenario

Unit 2005 2020 2030 2040 2050

Steel Kgce/t 760 650 564 554 545

Cement Kgce/t 132 101 86 81 77

GlassKgce/WeightCases 24 18 14.5 13.8 13.1

Brick Kgce/万块 685 466 433 421 408

Ammonia Kgce/t 1645 1328 1189 1141 1096

Ethylene Kgce/t 1092 796 713 693 672

Soda Ash Kgce/t 340 310 290 284 279

Casutic Kgce/t 1410 990 890 868 851

Calcium carbide Kgce/t 1482 1304 1215 1201 1193

Copper Kgce/t 1273 1063 931 877 827

Aluminum kWh/t 14320 12870 12170 11923 11877

Paper Kgce/t 1047 840 761 721 686

Electricity fossil fuel Gce/kWh 350 305 287 274 264

10

高效照明【如 LED照明】

光伏电池

能源检测系统

（家用电器)

生态生活教育

减少 60% 采暖需求,普及率70%

(25-47% 的家庭拥有屋顶光伏电池，转换效率接近30%

COP =8, 普及率 100%

超高效空调

太阳热利用

普及率: 20-60%（目前 6%）

热泵采暖

COP＝5普及率 30-70%

燃料电池

普及率 0-20%

高效绝热

减少50%照明需求，普及率 100%

待机电源耗电

降低1/3 ，普及率100%

2050年的低碳住宅舒适和节能

屋顶植被

5

太阳能利用

高效家用电器减少能源需求，支持舒适和安全生活方式

向公众提供经济和环境信息促使大家成为

低碳消费

减少10-20% 能源需求

11

Transport, Low carbon scenario

2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Family car ownership, per 100HH Urban 3.37 14 36 65 77 78

Rural 0.08 0.2 8 38 70 90Family car annual travel distance, km 9500 9500 9300 8635 8300 7480Average engin size of family cars, litter 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4Fuel efficiency of car, L/100km 9.2 8.9 7.1 5.9 4.8 4.1Share of MRT in total traffic volume, % 0.011 0.016 0.025 0.046 0.1 0.21Share of Biofuel, % 1.10% 1.30% 4.1% 7.70% 12% 13%Share of electric car, % 0% 0.12% 3.2% 6.80% 12.5% 19.8%Share of fuel cell car, % 0% 0% 0.80% 1.60% 4.70% 7.90%

Stockholm: bicycle is coming back

Rapid bus: using existing rapid road

POWER_BOX by Baosteel

2kW wind10kW Solar PV

0 

2000 

4000 

6000 

8000 

10000 

12000 

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TWhPower Generation

Bio

Solar

Wind

Nulcear

Hydro

N.Gas

Oil fired

Coal fired

0 

50000 

100000 

150000 

200000 

250000 

300000 

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

万千

瓦Power Generation Capacity

Biomass

Solar

Wind

Nuclear

Hydro

N.Gas

Oil

Coal

1919

CCS future

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

%

IGCC-Fuel Cell

IGCC

US-Critical

Super Critical

Large Coal Unit

Samll Coal

20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

MtSO2

SO2 Emission

BaU

LC

ELC

0200400600800100012001400160018002000

2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

1000

ton

Black Carbon Emission in China

BaU

LowCarbon

0.0 

2.0 

4.0 

6.0 

8.0 

10.0 

12.0 

14.0 

16.0 

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mt

NOx Emission in China, ELC scenario

Other

Power generation

0.0 

1.0 

2.0 

3.0 

4.0 

5.0 

6.0 

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mton

PM2.5 Emission

Other

Power generation

0.0 

100.0 

200.0 

300.0 

400.0 

500.0 

600.0 

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

ton

Mercury Emission

Other

Power generation

21

Bubble size corresponds to incremental energy provided or avoided in 2025. The reference point is the “business as usual” mix in 2025. The horizontal axis includes sustainability as well as traditional aspects of sufficiency, reliability, and affordability. The vertical axis illustrates lifecycle greenhouse gas intensity. Bubble placements are based on quantitative analysis and ERI expert judgment.

Positive Climate Characteristics

IncreaseEnergy

Security

Nuclear

BuildingEfficiency

Expanded DomesticOil Production

Business As UsualIn 2025

Corn Ethanol

A Snapshot of Selected China Energy Options Today:Climate and Energy Security Impacts and Tradeoffs in 2025

Wind

Power Sector (this size corresponds to 40 billion kWh) by comparing low energy scenario and BaU

Gas-to-Liquids

CellulosicEthanol

ReduceEnergy

Security

Transport Sector (this size corresponds to 200 thousand barrels of oil per day) by comparing low energy scenario and BaU

Coal-to-Liquids(with carbon capture)

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

Imports

CO2 -Enhanced Oil Recovery

Negative Climate Characteristics

For specific details on the assumptions underlying the options on this chart, go to www.wri.org/usenergyoptions

Revised 7/10/2008

Hydro

Nuclear

Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Standard

IndustryEfficiency

Hydro

Wind

Ultra-Super Critical

Solar PV

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

ImportsClean Coal

(IGCC) with CO2 Capture

Coal-to-Liquids(no carbon

capture)

Biodiesel

Plug-InHybrids

Power Sector (this size corresponds to 40 billion kWh) by comparing low energy scenario and policy BaU

Transport Sector (this size corresponds to 200 thousand barrels of oil per day) by comparing policy BaU scenario and BaU

IndustryEfficiency

Oil Imports

Oil Imports

BiomassPower

22

23

28 key technologies in the enhanced low carbon scenario in China

No. Sector Technology Description Note1 High energy

efficiencyequipment

High efficiency furnace,kiln, waste heat recoverysystem, high efficiencyprocess technologies,advanced electric motor

Nearly inmarket

2 New manufactureprocess technologyfor cement and steel

3 CCS In cement, steel making,refinery, ethylenemanufacture

4 Super high efficiencydiesel vehicle

Advanced diesel hybridengine

5 Electric car6 Fuel cell car7 High efficiency

aircraft30% higher energyefficiency

8 Bio‐fuel aircraft9 Super high efficiency

air‐conditionerWith COP>7

10 LED lighting11 In house renewable

energy systemSolar PV/Wind/Solar hotwater and space heating

12 Heat pumps Mature13 High isolation

buildingMature

14 High efficiencyelectric appliance

Maturebefore 2030

15 IGCC/Poly‐Generation

With efficiency above 55%

16 IGCC/Fuel cell With efficiency above 60%17 On shore Wind Mature18 Off shore wind Mature

before 202019 Solar PV20 Solar Thermal21 4th Generation

Nuclear22 Advanced NGCC With efficiency above 65%23 Biomass IGCC24 CCS in power

generation25 Second generation

bio‐ethanol26 Bio‐diesel Vehicles, ships, vessels27 Grid Smart grid28 Circulating

tecnologiesRecycle, reuse,reducing materialuse

Alternative fuels

Powergeneration

Building

Transport

Industrytechnology

24

Can we do it: Peak before 2025?

• Economic structure will change soon, pushing by policy or wait until market decide(this will cause big problem for low capacity utilization)

• Technology is ready• Economic ability is getting much stronger to pay for low

carbon development• Global target need us move faster• Low carbon development is getting to be a main stream in

China

分部门能源消费量, Energy demand by sector, 1995-2010

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

农、林、

牧、渔

业

采掘业

煤炭

开采

和洗

选业

石油和

天然

气开

采业

黑色

金属

矿采

选业

有色

金属

矿采

选业

非金属

矿采

选业

其他采

矿业

农副食

品加

工业

食品制

造业

饮料制

造业

烟草制

品业

纺织

业纺

织服

装、

鞋、

帽制造

业皮革

、毛

皮、

羽毛(绒

)及其制

品业

木材加

工及

木、

竹、

藤、

棕、

草制品

业

家具制

造业

造纸及

纸制

品业

印刷业

和记

录媒

介的复

制文

教体

育用

品制

造业

石油加

工、

炼焦

及核

燃料

加工

业化

学原

料及

化学

制品

制造

业医药制

造业

化学纤

维制

造业

橡胶制

品业

塑料制

品业

非金

属矿

物制

品业

黑色金

属冶

炼及

压延

加工

业有

色金

属冶

炼及

压延

加工

业金属制

品业

通用设

备制

造业

专用设

备制

造业

交通运

输设

备制

造业

电气机

械及

器材

制造

业通

信设

备、

计算

机及

其他

电子

设备制

造业

仪器仪

表及文

化、

办公

用机

械制造

业

工艺品

及其

他制

造业

废弃资

源和

废旧

材料

回收

加工

业电

力、

煤气及

水生

产和

供应

业电

力、

热力

的生

产和

供应

业燃气

生产

和供

应业

水的

生产

和供

应业

建筑

业交

通运

输、

仓储

和邮

政业

批发、

零售

业和

住宿

、餐

饮业

其他

行业

生活

消费

1995

2000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

0.0

50000.0

100000.0

150000.0

200000.0

250000.0

300000.0

350000.0

万平

方米竣工房屋建筑面积

竣工房屋

#住 宅

#商品住宅

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2045 2050

Million m2

Floor Space of Building Completed

2Degree Scenario, 82m2 per capita

Jiang YI's Proposal, 52m2 per capita

Global Emission: 2 degree

Copenhagen Commitment: the GAP

Several Key research projects on global modeling

EMF24： Technology Strategies for Achieving Climate Policy Objectives

AME：Asia Modeling Excise

RoSE: Roadmaps towards Sustainable Energy Futures. A Model-Based Assessment of Scenarios For Decarbonising the Energy System in the 21st Century

AMPERE: Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation Pathways and Evaluation of the Robustness of Mitigation Cost Estimates

LIMITS: Low climate IMpact scenarios and the Implications of required Tight emission control Strategies

SSP：Shared Social-Economic Pathway

• Technology roadmap up to 2050• Policy roadmap for deep cut in 2050• Low carbon development for cities and provinces (more

than 10 cities and provinces)• Emission trading for China• Regional impact of carbon pricing in China• CCS pilot project for Gaojing Power Plant• Cost and benefit analysis• Technology solution• 2 degree scenario for China• Global mitigation potential study: regions scenarios, US,

EU, Japan

Domestic studies

IAMC MeetingTsukuba, Japan

15 – 16 September 2009

Framework of Integrated Policy Model for China (IPAC)

ERI, ChinaERI, China

IPAC-SGM

IPAC-AIM/tech

IPAC-Emission

IPAC/Tech(Power/Transport)IPAC/SE, IPAC/EAlarm

IPAC-TIMER

IPAC/AIM-Local

Energy demand and supplyPrice/investmentEconomic impactMedium/long-term analysis

Medium/short term analysisTechnology assessmentDetailed technology flow

Region analysisMedium/short analysisEnergy demand and supplyTechnology policy

IPAC-AIM/MATERIAL

Energy demand and supplFull range emissionPrice, resource, technologMedium-long term analysisEconomic impact

Environment industryPollutant emissionMedium/long-term analys

Technology developmentEnvironment impactTechnology policy

AIM-air IPAC-health

Energy demand and supplyPrice/investmentMedium/long-term analysis

Short term forecast/ energy early warning

Climate Model

IPAC/Gains-Asia

36

Methodology framework

Global ModelIPAC-Emission

Energy technology modelIPAC-AIM/technology

Energy economic modelIPAC-CGE

Global energy demandand supply

Global GHG EmissionGlobal TargetBurden sharingEnergy import/exportEnergy PriceReduction cost

Future economic sector detailEnergy intensive industryReduction cost

China energy and emissionscenariosEnergy demand by sectorsEnergy supply Reduction cost

37

0 

2000 

4000 

6000 

8000 

10000 

12000 

14000 

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

10^8Yuan

Year

Investment in Energy Industry in China

BaU

HLC

HELC

LLC

0 

50000 

100000 

150000 

200000 

250000 

300000 

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

10^8Yuan

Year

Energy Expenditures  in China

BaU

HLC

HELC

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 

Industry Transport Building Total

10^8

 Yuan

Year

Addtional Investment  in end use sectors in ELC

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

‐1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

2010 2020 2030 2050 2075 2100

GDP Loss, %

650ppm

550ppm

450ppm

Per Capita

Carbon Intensity

38

Good News: Rapid GDP growth could provide stong support

• By 2015, GDP in China could reach 75trillion Yuan(in current value)

• Newly added accumulated GDP is 450 Trillion Yuan• Cumulated GDP is 860 Trillion Yuan• All the investment need in all modeling study is much small

What is the role of technologies in the mitigation?

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

2005 2010 2020 2030 2050

Inde

x, 200

5=1

Year

Technology learning curve

Fuel Cell IGCC

Hydrogen Car

Poly‐Generation

Solar Thermal Power

PV

4th Generation Nuclear

Off shore wind

on shore wind

Biomass Power

Advanced NGCC

Electic Car

CCS

Solar 2010

Wind 2010

CCS‐PostC

CCS‐Enduse

LED Lighting

What is the role of technologies in the mitigation?

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Building Transport Industry

Energy efficiency improvement index

2010

2030

2050

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Building Transport Industry

CO2 emission improvement index

2010

2030

2050

41

Policy roadmap: Super high efficiency air conditioner

• Efficiency Standard: COP, MEPS• Government Planning• Subsidy

0.0 

1.0 

2.0 

3.0 

4.0 

5.0 

6.0 

7.0 

8.0 

9.0 

2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Start COP

四、影响电动汽车发展的主要制约因素分析

4. Analysis Major Constraints Factors 3.3 电动汽车实现经济性的趋势分析 Trend Analysis on EVs

43

0 5

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

2007 2010 2020 2030

百万

吨碳

年份

北京能源活动CO2排放量

基准情景

政策情景

强化低碳

情景

Beijing CO2 emission from energy activities: peak by 2015

0.0 

20.0 

40.0 

60.0 

80.0 

100.0 

120.0 

140.0 

160.0 

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Mtce

Primary Energy Demand in Beijing

BaU

Policy Scenario

Ehanced Policy

Peak CO2 emission by 2015, to be a low carbon city by 2030, comparable with Tokyo

45

Renewable Energy

• Renewable Energy Planning 2006: wind 30GW, Solar 2GW by 2020

• 2009 Energy Bureau: Wind 80WG• 2010 Energy Planning: Wind 150 GW, Solar 20GW by 2020

• Now: Wind 200GW to 250GW, Solar 50WG

• Based on the conclusion from Chinese Academy for Engineering, grid in China could adopt these renewable energy power generation in short term.

46

Natural Gas Scenarios

• In 2010,Natural Gas use 107.2BCM, while 12.2BCM imported.

• In our low carbon scenario: by 2030, 370BCM

• NEA’s planning: 260BCM by 2015