china's air-defense identification zone: what happens next

The Man WhoDecided to Kill SexOffendersBy Lexi Pandell

The Secret Life ofGriefBy Derek Thompson

Stop CallingSuperheroes'Fascist'By Chris Yogerst

SPONSOR CONTENT

A High-Tech TrainThat "Paints" theLandscape withLasers

CHINAFILE NOV 28 2013, 11:37 AM ET

TweetTweet

22

5

These uninhabited islands in the East China Sea, known as the Senkakus in Japan and the Diaoyutai inChina, are the center of a major diplomatic row between the two countries. (Reuters)

Chen Weihua, columnist and chief Washington correspondent forChina Daily:

The Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) is not a Chinese invention. TheUnited States, Japan and some 20 other countries declared such zones in theirairspace long time ago.

China’s announcement of its first ADIZ in the East China Sea reflects itsfrustration with Japan’s refusal to admit that there is a dispute over thesovereignty of Diaoyu Islands, or, as the Japanese call them, the Senkaku. And anumber of times Japan has used its own declared ADIZ as a pretext to criticizeChina of intruding into its airspace, which, in China’s view, is disputed.

The declaration of such ADIZ should by no means be seen as a signal that Chinais willing to shoot down any foreign planes entering the zone without priorreporting. The declaration of the zone gives China a strong legal basis andargument in certain cases, just as Japan did to its advantage in past years.

There is a lot of over-reaction and over-explanation of this as a Chineseprovocation. Remember, China has as large a stake in the peace, stability andprosperity in the region as anyone else. Its economy depends on this. Despite thetension, China and Japan’s trade goes on unimpeded. So China would not wantmilitary conflict.

China's Air-Defense IdentificationZone: What Happens Next?Beijing's escalation of a diplomatic dispute in the East China Sea requires the region'sleaders—and Washington—to work out a compromise.

WRITERS

Garance Franke-RutaWhy Millennials Fell Out of Love With Obama

2:06 PM ET

16

ShareShare

ShareShare

VIDEO

The Batman PopeHighlights from late-night comedy

More

SUBSCRIBENEWSLETTERSE-BOOKSAPPSLONGREADSIN FOCUSEVENTSJUST IN Why Millennials Fell Out of Love With Obama

!"#FOLLOW US

POLITICS $$ BUSINESS $$ TECH $$ ENTERTAINMENT $$ HEALTH $$ EDUCATION $$ SEXES $$ NATIONAL $$ GLOBAL $$ CHINA $$ VIDEO $$ MAGAZINE $$

%

China's Air-Defense Identification Zone: What Happens Next?... http://www.theatlantic.com/china/archive/2013/11/chinas-air-...

1 of 5 12/4/13, 2:38 PM

Remember, China has aslarge a stake in thepeace, stability andprosperity in the regionas anyone else.

More From ChinaFile

I believe leaders in China and Japan are underpressure, trying to appease to nationalisticsentiment in their countries, but I do hope andbelieve that both have the wisdom to find acompromise, so as to ensure a win-win situation forboth.

The U.S. has a role to play here, given that VicePresident Biden is going to China, Japan and South Korea next week. But theU.S. should not just try to reassure its allies, maybe more importantly it shouldwin the trust of China if it wants to be a credible broker. You are not qualified tobe a judge of a soccer match if one team happens to be made up of your brothersand cousins. The only way to do that is if you are ready to be stricter with thatteam, and willing to show more yellow or red cards to your own brothers andcousins at times such as when the Japanese government nationalized the islandsa year ago.

The U.S. flying B-52 bombers there, if deliberate, only encourages morenationalistic sentiment in China and adds more pressure on the leaders.

James Fallows, national correspondent for The Atlantic:

Chen Weihua is certainly right to point out that ADIZs have a long historyaround the world. Also he is right that, that as their name (Air DefenseIdentification Zone) implies, their purpose is to require aircraft to identifythemselves—as opposed to being excluded from an airspace or shot down. Butit’s worth noting that most U.S. coverage has made both these points. Indeed,in an earlier post I did at The Atlantic, I put up a map of the many ADIZ areasthat surround the United States, and also explained the difference between anADIZ and a “no-fly zone.”

There are two aspects of the situation that I think deserve more attention on theChinese side. One is that establishment of this new ADIZ is clearly a change inthe status quo. You can argue, as Chen Weihua does, that it’s a justifiedchange—but I hope the Chinese government recognizes that in a very difficultsituation, it has taken a step that changes previous understandings and may wellprovoke reactions from other parties.

The other is that the U.S. interest in this dispute—as I understand it, from ajournalistic rather than a governmental perspective—is to contain thedisagreement and encourage a diplomatic settlement. It has no interest in beingdirectly involved or “taking sides.” The United States has deep and importantrelations with both China and Japan. In addition, as all governments in theregion realize, it has a treaty obligation to defend Japan as part of theConstitutional arrangement that has kept Japan from fully rebuilding its ownmilitary.

All the governments involved have an interest in stepping back from a potentialconfrontation. I believe that this point is well understood in Washington, and Ihope it is in both Tokyo and Beijing.

Tai Ming Cheung, director of the University of California Institute onGlobal Conflict and Cooperation:

China’s decision to establish an ADIZ over the East China Sea comes barely oneyear after Xi Jinping became chairman of the Central Military Commission(CMC) at the 18th Communist Party Congress. The move is a major example ofXi’s emerging doctrine of “preparing for military struggle” that is the centerpiecefor his plans to develop a battle-ready PLA. This means enhancing the military’swar-fighting readiness and accelerate the pace of its weapons modernization.

military facilities across the country, especiallynaval and air units. For example, he toured the PLANavy’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, in

49 JUMP TO COMMENTS

TweetTweet

22

5 1

reddit

Email

Print

ALL POSTS RSS Follow Follow @chinafile@chinafile 5,652 followers

CHINAFILE is an online magazine published by Asia Society's Center on U.S.-ChinaRelations.

Elsewhere on the web (Sponsored Links)

Alexis C. MadrigalNo Big Deal, Just a Robot Walking Around

Campus 1:26 PM ET

Emma GreenPenny Pritzker on the Economic

Consequences of the NSA Scandal11:33 AM ET

Derek ThompsonHow Teenage Behavior Predicts the Future of

Technology 11:25 AM ET

Rebecca J. RosenAirplane Emergency Landing Cards Can't

Compare to This French Nuclear BlastGuidebook 10:53 AM ET

Conor Friedersdorf82 Years Before Edward Snowden, There

Was Herbert O. Yardley 10:03 AM ET

Megan GarberImgur: The Biggest Little Site in the World

7:30 AM ET

More in China

Hong Kong'sTroubling Shortageof MenDAVID COX

Chessmaster orPawn: Now, It'sChina's TurnJAMES FALLOWS

How ChineseMerchants AreTransformingCentral AsiaALEXANDROS PETERSEN

16

ShareShare

16

RecommendRecommend ShareShare

AROUND THE WEB by TaboolaSponsored Content

What Kids Who Don't EatVegetables Look LikeWhen They Grow UpNick Mom

16 Overrated/UnderratedDining Trends in the U.S.Zagat

The Subway Gangs ofMexico CityVice Magazine

What Will Santa Bring?Perfect Toddler ToysFisher-Price

CONOR FRIEDERSDORF 10:03 AM ET

82 Years Before EdwardSnowden, There Was Herbert O.Yardley

ALEXIS C. MADRIGAL DEC 3, 2013

Norway Decided to Digitize Allthe Norwegian Books

REBECCA J. ROSEN 10:53 AM ET

Airplane Emergency LandingCards Can't Compare to ThisFrench Nuclear Blast Guidebook

TweetTweet

Why Are Colleges Getting So Expensive?

More Video

Why Are Colleges Getting So Expensive?

Krampus: Saint Nicholas' DarkCompanion


2 of 5 12/4/13, 2:38 PM

Beijing is again settingitself up to be criticizedinternally as too weak ina highly-chargedatmosphere. Thisemboldens belligerentvoices and constricts thespace for diplomacy.

Qingdao in September and submarines anddestroyers in Hainan in April.

With Xi’s close attention to military affairs, he isalmost certain to have been involved in thedecision-making for the establishment of the ADIZ

given the wide-ranging international strategic significance of such an action.While the final decision would officially have been taken by the CMC, the PLAAir Force would likely have been the main proponent for the move because itstands to gain the most.

To be able to effectively implement the ADIZ, the air force will argue that itneeds extensive resources ranging from long-range surveillance radars toadvanced fighter aircraft and airborne early warning aircraft. How aggressivelythe Chinese authorities will seek to enforce the rules that China has defined forthe ADIZ will determine whether the move will heighten the chances for conflictbetween China, the U.S., and Japan.

The biggest concern is that the PLA’s lack of operational experience, overlappingADIZs, and unclear rules of engagement could lead to accidents that could easilyspiral into dangerous incidents. The only way to address this is for China to talkwith Japan, South Korea, and the U.S. as soon as possible to work out theirdifferences. But the initial strongly negative response from these other countriesto Beijing’s surprise unilateral move means this may not happen anytime soon.

Stephanie Kleine-Albrandt: director of Asia-Pacific programs at theU.S. Institute of Peace:

Tai Ming Cheung put his finger on a key issue—how the newly announced ADIZwill further empower actors within China to push for bolder action in thecontested territories in the East China Sea.

But in so doing, Beijing dangerously narrows itsoptions. Such announcements directly empowerChinese military and civilian law enforcementactors in the disputed areas and emboldennationalists and netizens to hold the governmentaccountable to implement them in practice. Thelast announcement of this type was on September10, 2012 when the Ministry of Foreign Affairs setbaselines to formally demarcate China territorialwaters in the area. In Beijing's eyes, this movelegally placed the disputed islands under Chineseadministration in a direct challenge to Japan's

administration of the islands.

Such an unprecedented move to formalize its claim obliged China under its ownlaws—and in the court of domestic public opinion—to assert jurisdiction over thewaters surrounding the islands and empowered Chinese maritime lawenforcement agencies to assert China's sovereignty around the islands. Almostimmediately, China increased the presence of Maritime Ocean Surveillancevessels in disputed waters on what the Foreign Ministry claimed was a “rightsdefense law enforcement action.” Sure enough, Internet users tracked Chineselaw enforcement vessels via satellite photos, mocking and criticizing thegovernment when they stopped short of disputed waters. (One netizen summedit up: Beijing “can’t just verbally draw [the territorial sea baselines], then neglectthem. That’s humiliating”.) They held Beijing to statements that it may havemade during a time of high public pressure, not allowing for the option ofselective enactment. We can imagine a similar dynamic taking place now withthe ADIZ. Certainly heated discussions have already taken place in Beijing afterthe US B-52 flight. Beijing is again setting itself up to be criticized internally astoo weak in a highly-charged atmosphere. This emboldens belligerent voices andconstricts the space for diplomacy.

Given this situation, there must be serious efforts made on both sides to dealwith the potential risks, which as Tai Ming pointed out, are aggravated by the

What dialect do you speak? A map of American English(Washington Post)

The U.S. Army got caught pirating $180 million in software. It’ssettling for $50 million. (Washington Post)

Is Fibromyalgia The Real Diagnosis? (Envita)

Russia’s Heavy Hand on its Former Soviet States (Vocativ)

Lyme Disease, Fibromyalgia and Chronic Fatigue Linked;Widespread Misdiagnosis and Wrong Treatment (Shea Medical)

JOIN THE DISCUSSIONAfter you comment, click Post. If you’re not already logged in you will be asked to log in or register.

1 Are You Smart Enough to Be a Citizen? TakeOur Quiz

2 The Vigilante of Clallam County

3 Why Millennials Fell Out of Love WithObama

4 Krampus: Saint Nicholas' Dark Companion

5 The Democratic Party: How Did It Get Here?

6 Congratulations, Ohio! You Are theSweariest State in the Union

7 The Most Commonly Awarded Grade atHarvard Is an A

8 Why Are Colleges Getting So Expensive?

9 The Secret Life of Grief

10 The Case for Giving Iran's Scholar-Diplomats a Chance

Most Popular

Just In

Why Millennials Fell Out of LoveWith Obama

GARANCE FRANKE-RUTA

India's Dating Sites Skip Straightto the Wedding

P. NASH JENKINS

No Big Deal, Just a Robot WalkingAround Campus

ALEXIS C. MADRIGAL

A Homecoming

Shen Wei's Chinese Sentiment

What Will the Beginning of the End ofthe One-Child Policy Bring?REBECCA RUIZ 9:10 AM ET

Should Bystanders InterveneWhen They Identify MentalIllness?


3 of 5 12/4/13, 2:38 PM

It is dangerous thatthe agency with arguablythe greatest interest inde-escalating tensionshas limited access toinformation andconstricted room formaneuver.

PLA’s lack of operational experience, overlapping ADIZs, and unclear rules ofengagement, which could lead to accidents. I would add to that list the lack of“hotlines” or even effective channels of communication in times of crisis and theevaporation of back-channel diplomacy between Tokyo and Beijing.

It is dangerous that the agency with arguably thegreatest interest in de-escalating tensions haslimited access to information and constricted roomfor maneuver. And the majority of governments arerouted through the MFA in their dealings withChina, limiting their understanding of the Chinesedecision-making process because they are talkingto the weakest link.

A path actually exists to reduce the chances ofunintended escalation, so no one needs to re-inventthe wheel on maritime communicationarrangements between China and Japan.

Mechanisms just need to be reactivated. Over the last five years, China andJapan worked together to develop several maritime confidence building andcommunication arrangements to reduce the chances of unintended escalation inthe East China Sea and improve Sino-Japanese relations (up until Sept 2012 ofcourse). These include the Japan China Maritime Communications Mechanism(JCMCM), the Maritime Search and Rescue Cooperation Agreement (SARAgreement), and the High level Consultation on Maritime Affairs (High LevelConsultation). (For a full list, see this). Despite considerable progress inreaching agreement in principle, the political will has been lacking for thesignature or implementation of these agreements.

The problem here is that while China knows that it needs to manage the islandstogether with Japan, it will not talk directly to Japan about protocols/rules of theroad/confidence building measures (CBMs) around islands until Japan admitsthey are disputed. China sees direct talks with Japan about protocols/rules ofthe road/CBMs as a compromise; not as the logical thing to do to avoid amisstep. There is an argument in Beijing that without this sort of concessionfrom Tokyo, it would be heavily criticized internally for showing weakness byentering into direct talks with Tokyo. For Tokyo’s part, admitting the existenceof a dispute is also an unacceptable compromise.

Compounding the danger is that many in the PLA and Maritime surveillanceofficials are far from convinced of the need to talk to Japan because they areconfident that they can avoid a mishap. Some actors within the PLA andMaritime surveillance even say that a “minor crisis” could actually help theirposition, as long as it doesn’t escalate. They believe they can control escalation.

I understand that many Japanese were hopeful that after the 3rd plenum wemight see a thaw. But regrettably, I think that the Chinese government iscomfortable waiting this out, while making moves to try to consolidate itsposition. Beijing feels it has achieved something. It has taken advantage ofJapan’s purchase move in September 2012 to permanently challenge Japan’sadministrative control of the islands (which can be termed “reactiveassertiveness:” a tactic that turns perceived provocation by rivals claimingterritory into a chance for changing the status quo in China’s favor). Despiteexpressions by both governments that they wish to avoid a war, the potential forescalation has increased significantly and there is deepening pessimism on allsides over the prospects of a peaceful settlement.

The United States—as a treaty ally of Japan, which has vital strategic interests infostering peaceful relations with China—has been brought into the heat of theconflict. But, in this situation, Beijing views Washington as a threat, and Tokyois questioning Washington’s resolve to defend Japan should an armed disputeerupt. Vice President Biden will have his hands full on his upcoming trip.

This post first appeared at ChinaFile, an Atlantic partner site.

49 comments

Join the discussion…

OldestOldest CommunityCommunity LoginLogin ⤤⤤ShareShare

• Reply •

matimal • 6 days agoNO comments?!

2

• Reply •

see more

ning05 • 6 days agoLet the arms race of the 21st century begin and may the bestman win!

Within next 5 years, China must achieve nuclear parity to prevent war, for thesake of both Chinese and American children– my kids are Chinese Americans.China should simply ignore japan like a dirty fly in the face -- it is adisgusting nuisance but can do no real harm. China must not start a fight now-- not economically and absolutely not militarily.

Given the ubiquity of capital, technology and information in this century, andmore importantly the Chinese culture and its emphasis on education, hardworkingand upward social mobility, it is only a matter of one or two decades beforethe great nation of China, simply by way of its monolithic, cohesive andHan-dominated population becomes again the preeminent and dominating nation byway of its GDP. China that grows at anything like current rates (7% to sub 8%)for another 10 to 20 years would never have to be aggressive to impose itswill.

However, the next 10 years will be the most critical and potentially most

6 7

• Reply •

rsbsail • 6 days ago> ning05Nice propaganda piece, Ning05. I especially like your description of theJapanese as a "dirty fly in the face." Of course, one must first of all dehumanizethe enemy, right?

17 1

• Reply •

ltlee1 • 5 days ago> rsbsailOne thing is clear about Japan. German had made a clean break with itsNazi past. Japan has yet to break with its imperial past. Japanesesoldiers had killed Chinese and Americans and committed all kind ofatrocities in the name of its emperor Hirohito. Yet his descendant wasmade the symbol as well the head of modern Japanese state. Imaginemodern day Germany chooses someone as its head simply because heis Hitler's son.

7

• Reply •

rsbsail • 5 days ago> ltlee1And the Chinese killed many South Koreans, Americans andother UN soldiers in the Korean War. When will they apologize forthat? When will they make a clean break, as you say, and admittheir part in that war of aggression?

And by the way, who is acting in an imperialistic manner today,claiming islands in the South China Sea that are no where nearChina proper? Who is acting in a belligerent manner?

See, we can go on forever along this line, but we live in thepresent.

4

ltlee1 • 5 days ago> rsbsailHitler killed 6 million of Jews because Jews were consideredinferior to the Aryans. Hirohito had invaded China and killed 15million Chinese (per American writer John Dower "EMBRACINGDEFEAT") because Chinese people were considered inferior tothem Yamatos. China was involved in the Korean wars becauseit wanted to help the North Koreans.

0★

Avatar

Avatar

Avatar

Share ›

Avatar

2

Share ›

Share ›

Avatar

Share ›

Avatar

Share ›


4 of 5 12/4/13, 2:38 PM

Remembering the 'Scary Stories ToTell In the Dark' That Scarred Us forLife

Israeli Actress Cast as WonderWoman, Will Be in 'Batman vs.Superman'

‘Her’ Is the Surprise Big Winner withthe National Board of Review

More from The Wire

An Indispensible Guide to 'Greening'Cities

Mexico City's Newest Pop-UpRestaurant Looks Like a Horrible,Expensive Time

The U.S. Cities Leading the Decline inDriving

More from Atlantic Cities

Cancer is killing northeastern Indians,and suicide is plaguing thesoutherners

The UK is going to rewrite all the rulesto allow driverless cars to thrive

Goldman expects more banks to belike Goldman next year

More from Quartz

Obamacare Experiences DecemberEnrollment Spike

Wisconsin Weighs Delay in RemovingPoor From BadgerCare

Wisconsin Weighs Delay in RemovingPoor From BadgerCare

More from National Journal

Longreads Best of 2013: My FavoriteStories About Taxes (and Twist-Ties)

College Longreads Pick: ‘A Canine ina Cummerbund,’ Peter Kaplan (1977)

The Complicated RelationshipBetween a Reporter and a Source

More from Longreads

FOLLOW THE ATLANTIC

App store

Facebook

Twitter

Linkedin

Google Plus

Tumblr

RSS

E-NEWSLETTERSToday's Top StoriesThis WeekThis MonthNew at In FocusAtlantic Cities5 Best Columns

INFORMATIONFAQSubscribe HelpMastheadStoreMerchandiseJobsPrivacySite MapTerms and ConditionsAdvertiseAdvertising GuidelinesPressContact UsSpecial ReportsAtlantic SceneEbookEventsAtlantic Media

Get 10 issues a yearand save 65% off thecover price

FIRST NAME

LAST NAME

ADDRESS 1

ADDRESS 2

CITY

STATE ZIP

EMAIL

Next ►

SUBSCRIBE

Fraud alert regarding The Atlantic

ATLANTIC MEDIA

Copyright © 2013 by The Atlantic Monthly Group. All Rights Reserved. CDN powered by Edgecast Networks. Insights powered by Parsely .


5 of 5 12/4/13, 2:38 PM

china's air-defense identification zone: what happens next

Documents