china s crude oil production- a game changer in 2016.pdf

7/25/2019 China s Crude Oil Production- A Game Changer in 2016.pdf

1/17


2/17

Closing PriceUS Oil Fund Partnership Units (USO)PrShrs Trust II Shs ProShares Ultra

Bloomberg Crude Oil (UCO)Jul '12Jan '13Jul '13Jan '14Jul '14Jan '15Jul '15Jan '16-

150%-100%-50%0%Source: BATS Exchange

Saturday, Feb 8, 17:00

PrShrs Trust II Shs ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (UCO):

$173.5

Saudi Arabia and Venezuelas meeting

On February 7, 2016, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela met to discuss the collectiveproduction cut betweenOPECand non-OPEC nations. All eyes were on Saudi

Arabias oil minister Ali al-Naimi and his Venezuelan counterpart Eulogio Del Pino.

However, the meeting didnt show any concrete evidence of a favorable outcome for

an oil production cut. Eulogio Del Pino is touring OPEC and non-OPEC oil producing

giants to initiate a collective production cut for the oil price ceiling. Venezuela

wants to stabilize its dwindling economy. Its economy depends on oil exports. The

Venezuelan governments sources reported that oil revenue fell by 70% in 2015. The

economy fell by 5%, respectively, in 2015. Saudi Arabia has been stubborn. Its

dictating Venezuela. Saudi Arabia thinks that the oil production cut and oil price

ceiling arent effective in the current oil market conditions. The only option is a

tussle for oil market share. The US shale boom could snatch OPECs market share in

the future.

The latest estimates from Barclays suggested that oil demand from the worlds

largest oil consumers like the US and China could slow down. Read more about US

production in Part 6 of this series. Well also discuss how Chinas production and

consumption could impact the oil market in Part 7.

Volatility picture

Oil prices have fallen by nearly 20% in 2016 due to the wide gap between supply and

demand. Historically low oil prices led to decreased spending on mega oil and gas

exploration projects. Companies like Concho Resources (CXO), Whiting Petroleum

(WLL), WPX Energy (WPX), and PDC Energy (PDCE)slashed the capital expenditure,

according to sources from data intelligence firm IHS (IHS)in order to sustain

themselves in the depressed oil and gas market.

US inventory
http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/opec-crude-oil-production-breaking-records/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/opec-crude-oil-production-breaking-records/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/opec-crude-oil-production-breaking-records/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/cxo/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/cxo/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/cxo/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/wll/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/wll/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/wll/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/wpx/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/wpx/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/wpx/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/pdce/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/pdce/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/pdce/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/ihs/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/ihs/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/ihs/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/ihs/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/pdce/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/wpx/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/wll/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/cxo/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/opec-crude-oil-production-breaking-records/


3/17

In the next part of this series, well discuss how the US crude oil inventory is

weighing on the global oil market. In Part 3 of this series, well discuss how the

record inventory is leading to a historic surge in the crude oil storage cost.

Energy and Power Performance

1m3m6mYTD1y3y5yClick Ticker Above to Show/Hide on

GraphWLLCXOWPXPDCEUCOXLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF))May

'15Sep '15Jan '16May '16-100%-50%0% + 50%

Part 2

Watch Out! Inventory Data and China Could Swing Crude Oil Prices (Part 2 of 8)

API Crude Oil Inventory Will Continue to Pressure Oil

Prices

By Gordon Kristopher Feb 9, 2016 10:50 am EST

API crude oil inventory

The API (American Petroleum Institute) is scheduled to release its weekly crude oil

inventory report on February 9, 2016. Last week, the US commercial crude oil

inventory rose by 3.8 MMbbls (million barrels) for the week ending January 29, 2016.

The API crude oil inventory rose for the third consecutive week despite the winter

season.
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4/17

Enlarge Graph

EIAs crude oil inventory

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) is scheduled to release its weekly

crude oil inventory report on February 10, 2016. The US crude oil inventory rose by

7.8 MMbbls to 502.7 MMbbls for the week ending January 29, 2016. To learn more

about the nationwide crude oil inventory, readEIA Crude Oil Inventory Breaks 34-

Year Record Inventory High.For more on the gasoline inventory, readUS Gasoline

Inventories Shake up Crude Oil and Gasoline Prices.For more on distillates, readUS

Distillate Inventories Fall on Low Distillate Production.

The preliminary surveys from Reuters suggest that the US crude oil inventory couldrise by 3.9 MMbbls for the week ending February 5, 2016. The current US crude oil

inventory is 36% more than the five-year seasonal average. Gasoline and distillate

inventories are also 8% and 16% more than the five-year averages, respectively.

Impact

The catastrophic fall in oil prices impacted oil producers like Anadarko Petroleum

(APC), Hess (HES), Energy XXI (EXXI), and Halcon Resources (HK). However, the rising

US and global inventory andcontango marketbenefit oil tankers like NordicAmerican Tankers (NAT), Teekay Tankers (TNK), Frontline (FRO), DHT Holdings (DHT),
http://marketrealist.com/analysis/stock-analysis/energy-power/upsteam-oil-gas/charts/?featured_post=1038297&featured_chart=1038308http://marketrealist.com/analysis/stock-analysis/energy-power/upsteam-oil-gas/charts/?featured_post=1038297&featured_chart=1038308http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/eia-crude-oil-inventory-breaks-34-year-record-inventory-high/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/eia-crude-oil-inventory-breaks-34-year-record-inventory-high/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/eia-crude-oil-inventory-breaks-34-year-record-inventory-high/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/eia-crude-oil-inventory-breaks-34-year-record-inventory-high/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/us-gasoline-stocks-shake-crude-oil-gasoline-prices/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/us-gasoline-stocks-shake-crude-oil-gasoline-prices/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/us-gasoline-stocks-shake-crude-oil-gasoline-prices/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/us-gasoline-stocks-shake-crude-oil-gasoline-prices/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/us-distillate-stocks-slumped-low-distillate-production/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/us-distillate-stocks-slumped-low-distillate-production/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/us-distillate-stocks-slumped-low-distillate-production/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/us-distillate-stocks-slumped-low-distillate-production/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/apc/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/apc/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/apc/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/hes/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/hes/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/hes/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/exxi/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/exxi/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/exxi/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/hk/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/hk/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/hk/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/traders-benefit-crude-oil-contango-market/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/traders-benefit-crude-oil-contango-market/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/traders-benefit-crude-oil-contango-market/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/nat/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/nat/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/nat/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/tnk/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/tnk/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/tnk/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/fro/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/fro/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/fro/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/dht/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/dht/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/dht/http://marketrealist.com/analysis/stock-analysis/energy-power/upsteam-oil-gas/charts/?featured_post=1038297&featured_chart=1038308http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/dht/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/fro/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/tnk/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/nat/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/traders-benefit-crude-oil-contango-market/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/hk/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/exxi/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/hes/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/apc/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/us-distillate-stocks-slumped-low-distillate-production/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/us-distillate-stocks-slumped-low-distillate-production/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/us-gasoline-stocks-shake-crude-oil-gasoline-prices/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/us-gasoline-stocks-shake-crude-oil-gasoline-prices/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/eia-crude-oil-inventory-breaks-34-year-record-inventory-high/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/eia-crude-oil-inventory-breaks-34-year-record-inventory-high/http://marketrealist.com/analysis/stock-analysis/energy-power/upsteam-oil-gas/charts/?featured_post=1038297&featured_chart=1038308


5/17

and Tsakos Energy Navigation (TNP). In the next part, well discuss how the rising

crude oil inventory impacts rising crude oil storage costs.

ETFs like the United States Oil Fund (USO), the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil

ETF (UCO), and the iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN (OIL)are

influenced by the rise and fall in oil prices.



GraphUCOTNPAPCHESEXXIXLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF))May

'15Sep '15Jan '16May '16-100%-50%0% + 50% + 100%

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Part 3


Crude Oil Storage Costs Rose 9 Times, US Crude Tests

New Limits


Crude oil storage contracts

The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) and Matrix launched the first innovative ETFcontract based on the crude oil storage capacity at the LOOP Clovelly Hub in the CME

Globex. The first trading started on March 30, 2015. The first listed and delivery

month was May 2015. The trading floor would be NYMEX. The electronic platform

would be CME Globex. This crude oil storage contract will help consumers store

crude oil for 112 months. Also, it provides transparency for crude oil storage costs

over the short term. The contracts provide access to storage at Gulf Coast facilities.

Each crude oil storage contract gives the buyer the right to store 1,000 barrels of

LOOP sour crude at the LOOP Clovelly Hub for any calendar month.
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6/17

Enlarge Graph

Crude oil storage costs

US crude oil inventories are at an 80-year high at this time of the year.Crude oil

storage capacitieshave been increased due to rising crude oil inventories and long-

term oversupply concerns. So, limited crude oil storage facilities caused crude oil

storage costs to rise to $0.90 per barrel on February 9, 2016compared to $0.10 per

barrel in August 2015. Crude oil storage costs rose nine times in six months. The

costs are even more than the long-term storage costs in the Gulf Coast.

Impact

Thewide contango marketsupports oil tankers like Teekay Tankers (TNK), Frontline

(FRO), Euronav (EURN), DHT Holdings (DHT), and Tsakos Energy Navigation (TNP). In

the next part of this series, well discuss what drives crude oil storage costs.

Contango market traders margins also fall with the rise in storage costs. In the next

part, well provide the latest update on the US crude oil inventory.

ETFs and ETNs like the United States Oil Fund (USO), the iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil

Total Return Index ETN (OIL), the VelocityShares 3X Long Crude Oil ETN (UWTI), and

the ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF (SCO)are also impacted by

volatile crude oil prices.
http://marketrealist.com/analysis/stock-analysis/energy-power/upsteam-oil-gas/charts/?featured_post=1038298&featured_chart=1038319http://marketrealist.com/analysis/stock-analysis/energy-power/upsteam-oil-gas/charts/?featured_post=1038298&featured_chart=1038319http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/excess-oil-supplies-lead-rising-crude-oil-storage-capacities/http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/excess-oil-supplies-lead-rising-crude-oil-storage-capacities/http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/excess-oil-supplies-lead-rising-crude-oil-storage-capacities/http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/excess-oil-supplies-lead-rising-crude-oil-storage-capacities/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/traders-benefit-crude-oil-contango-market/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/traders-benefit-crude-oil-contango-market/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/traders-benefit-crude-oil-contango-market/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/tnk/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/tnk/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/tnk/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/fro/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/fro/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/fro/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/eurn/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/eurn/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/eurn/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/dht/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/dht/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/dht/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/tnp/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/tnp/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/tnp/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/uso/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/uso/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/uso/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/oil/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/oil/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/oil/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/uwti/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/uwti/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/uwti/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/sco/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/sco/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/sco/http://marketrealist.com/analysis/stock-analysis/energy-power/upsteam-oil-gas/charts/?featured_post=1038298&featured_chart=1038319http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/sco/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/uwti/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/oil/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/uso/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/tnp/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/dht/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/eurn/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/fro/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/tnk/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/traders-benefit-crude-oil-contango-market/http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/excess-oil-supplies-lead-rising-crude-oil-storage-capacities/http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/excess-oil-supplies-lead-rising-crude-oil-storage-capacities/http://marketrealist.com/analysis/stock-analysis/energy-power/upsteam-oil-gas/charts/?featured_post=1038298&featured_chart=1038319


7/17



GraphUSOTNKSCODHTTNPXLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF))May

'15Sep '15Jan '16May '16-100%0% + 100% + 200% + 300%

Part 4


Gulf Coast Crude Oil Inventory Hit New Highs, Drove

Storage Costs


Gulf Coast crude oil inventory

The current Gulf Coast crude oil inventory is at 252.9 MMbbls (million barrels) for

the week ending January 29, 2016. Its the highest level since 1990. The Gulf Coasts

working storage capacity is 302. 3 MMbbls. The inventory doesnt account oil in

pipelines or field storage. Its also the largest among the US crude oil storage regions.

To learn more, readEIA Crude Oil Inventory Breaks 34-Year Record Inventory High.In

the third part of this series, well discuss the consensus of the rising US crude oil

inventory.
http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/eia-crude-oil-inventory-breaks-34-year-record-inventory-high/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/eia-crude-oil-inventory-breaks-34-year-record-inventory-high/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/eia-crude-oil-inventory-breaks-34-year-record-inventory-high/http://ads.pointroll.com/PortalServe/?pid=2653861N73220150622184247&pos=c&r=%5bRANDOM%5dhttp://marketrealist.com/2016/02/eia-crude-oil-inventory-breaks-34-year-record-inventory-high/


8/17

Enlarge Graph

Why are Gulf Coast inventories rising?

LOOP crude oil storage futures, or the crude oil storage cost, hit $0.90 per barrel on

February 9, 2016. Its covered in the third part of the series. These contracts are

based on the storage facilities in the Gulf Coast. The Gulf Coast receives oil from land

and sea. Crude oil imports averaged around 3.18 MMbpd (million barrels a day) in

the last ten weeks. Its the highest since July 2015. The record stockpile atCushing,

Oklahoma,also drove crude oil to Texas and Louisiana.

The long-term crude oil storage costs are ~$0.65 per barrel in the Gulf Coast. The

costs are ~$0.35 per barrel in Cushing, Oklahoma, according to Macquarie Capital

sources. CME also increased the margin for the LOOP crude oil storage futurescontract to $440 from $385 on Thursday, February 4, 2016.

The rising storage cost limits the profitability of oil producers strategy of taking

advantage of thewider contango market.Market surveys suggest that flat US crude

oil production, rising crude oil imports, and the mild winter will continue to put

pressure on US crude oil storage facilities. As a result, it will benefit LOOP crude oil

storage contracts and oil tankers like Teekay Tankers (TNK), Frontline (FRO), DHT

Holdings (DHT), and Tsakos Energy Navigation (TNP). However, lower oil prices

benefit refiners like Western Refining (WNR), Alon USA Partners (ALDW), and

Northern Tier Energy (NTI).
http://marketrealist.com/analysis/stock-analysis/energy-power/upsteam-oil-gas/charts/?featured_post=1038299&featured_chart=1038339http://marketrealist.com/analysis/stock-analysis/energy-power/upsteam-oil-gas/charts/?featured_post=1038299&featured_chart=1038339http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/cushing-crude-oil-inventory-58-5-year-seasonal-average/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/cushing-crude-oil-inventory-58-5-year-seasonal-average/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/cushing-crude-oil-inventory-58-5-year-seasonal-average/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/cushing-crude-oil-inventory-58-5-year-seasonal-average/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/traders-benefit-crude-oil-contango-market/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/traders-benefit-crude-oil-contango-market/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/traders-benefit-crude-oil-contango-market/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/tnk/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/tnk/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/tnk/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/fro/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/fro/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/fro/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/dht/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/dht/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/dht/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/tnp/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/tnp/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/tnp/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/wnr/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/wnr/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/wnr/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/nti/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/nti/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/nti/http://marketrealist.com/analysis/stock-analysis/energy-power/upsteam-oil-gas/charts/?featured_post=1038299&featured_chart=1038339http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/nti/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/wnr/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/tnp/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/dht/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/fro/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/tnk/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/traders-benefit-crude-oil-contango-market/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/cushing-crude-oil-inventory-58-5-year-seasonal-average/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/cushing-crude-oil-inventory-58-5-year-seasonal-average/http://marketrealist.com/analysis/stock-analysis/energy-power/upsteam-oil-gas/charts/?featured_post=1038299&featured_chart=1038339


9/17

The volatility in the oil market benefits ETFs and ETNs like the United States Oil Fund

(USO), the iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN (OIL), and the ProShares

UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF (SCO).

In the next part of this series, well discuss the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading

Commissions report.



GraphUSOALDWNTIWNRSCOXLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF))May

'15Sep '15Jan '16May '16-100%0% + 100% + 200% + 300%

Part 5


US Crude Oil Futures Open Interest Hit New Highs

since 2006


US crude oil futures open interest

On February 5, 2016, the CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission)

published its weekly Commitment of Traders report. It reported that US crude oil

futures open interest rose to 497,280 for the week ending February 2, 2016. Its the

highest open interest since 2006. Meanwhile, the net positions held by hedge funds

and speculators fell by 8,837 contracts to 196,873 contracts for the week ending

February 2, 2016.
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10/17

Enlarge Graph

Commercial and non-commercial traders

The CFTC report highlighted that non-commercial crude oil futures long positions

rose by 22,110 contracts for the week ending February 2, 2016. In contrast, the short

positions held by non-commercial traders rose by 30,947 for the same period. The

total commercial bearish positions were at 205,786 contracts through the week

ending February 2, 2016. The bearish positions rose by 3,264 contracts for the

period. There were 73 hedge funds with huge bearish positions for the week ending

February 2, 2016. These positions rose by three compared to the previous week.

The CFTC classifies traders in two segmentscommercial and non-commercial

traders. Hedge funds and speculators are non-commercial traders. Oil producers arecommercial traders. Commercial traders use the futures and options markets for

hedging activity.

Record volatility in the oil market is driving record open interest. Rising short

positions suggest that hedge funds are still bearish about the crude oil market. In the

next part of this series, well discuss the crude oil markets latest catalyst. US

upstream players are impacted the most compared to downstream players due to

historically low oil prices. Oil producers like Halcon Resources (HK), Energy XXI (EXXI),

Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Marathon Oil (MRO)are impacted negatively by

lower oil prices. However, lower oil prices benefit refiners like Western Refining(WNR), Alon USA Partners (ALDW), and Northern Tier Energy (NTI).
http://marketrealist.com/analysis/stock-analysis/energy-power/upsteam-oil-gas/charts/?featured_post=1038300&featured_chart=1038344http://marketrealist.com/analysis/stock-analysis/energy-power/upsteam-oil-gas/charts/?featured_post=1038300&featured_chart=1038344http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/hk/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/hk/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/hk/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/exxi/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/exxi/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/exxi/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/oxy/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/oxy/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/oxy/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/mro/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/mro/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/mro/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/wnr/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/wnr/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/wnr/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/nti/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/nti/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/nti/http://marketrealist.com/analysis/stock-analysis/energy-power/upsteam-oil-gas/charts/?featured_post=1038300&featured_chart=1038344http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/nti/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/wnr/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/mro/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/oxy/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/exxi/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/hk/http://marketrealist.com/analysis/stock-analysis/energy-power/upsteam-oil-gas/charts/?featured_post=1038300&featured_chart=1038344


11/17

ETFs and ETNs like the United States Oil Fund (USO), the iShares U.S. Oil Equipment

& Services ETF (IEZ), the ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF (SCO), the

Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE), and the First Trust Energy AlphaDEX Fund (FXN)are also

impacted by volatile crude oil prices.

In the next part of this series, well discuss the US crude oil rig count.



GraphUSOEXXIHKWNRNTIXLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF))May '15Sep

'15Jan '16May '16-150%-100%-50%0% + 50% + 100%



Part 6


US Crude Oil Rig Count Fell by 30 Rigs Last Week


US crude oil rig count

On February 5, 2016, Baker Hughes (BHI)published its weekly crude oil rig count.

The data projected that the US crude oil rig count fell by 30 rigs to 467 rigs for the

week ending February 5, 2016. The US crude oil rig count fell for the seventhconsecutive week. The US crude oil rig count fell by 19 rigs in Texas for the week

ending February 5, 2016. US crude oil rigs also fell by eight in Oklahoma and by five

in Louisiana. Pennsylvania idled three rigs. New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming also

idled two rigs, respectively, for the same period.
http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/uso/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/uso/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/uso/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/iez/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/iez/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/iez/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/sco/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/sco/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/sco/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/vde/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/vde/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/vde/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/fxn/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/fxn/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/fxn/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/us-crude-oil-futures-open-interest-hit-new-highs-since-2006/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/us-crude-oil-futures-open-interest-hit-new-highs-since-2006/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/us-crude-oil-futures-open-interest-hit-new-highs-since-2006/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/us-crude-oil-futures-open-interest-hit-new-highs-since-2006/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/bhi/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/bhi/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/bhi/http://ads.pointroll.com/PortalServe/?pid=2653861N73220150622184247&pos=c&r=%5bRANDOM%5dhttp://marketrealist.com/quote-page/bhi/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/us-crude-oil-futures-open-interest-hit-new-highs-since-2006/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/fxn/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/vde/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/sco/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/iez/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/uso/


12/17

Enlarge Graph

US crude oil rig count hit a new low

The US crude oil rig count fell by 71 rigs in 2016. It tested a new low of 467 rigs on

February 5, 2016. In contrast, the US oil rig count peaked at 1,609 rigs in October

2014. The US drilling activity fell more than 60% in the past year due to lower crude

oil prices as a result of oversupply concerns.

The decline in the drilling activity impacts oil equipment companies like Baker

Hughes, Schlumberger (SLB), Superior Energy Services (SPN), and Halliburton (HAL).

15 years ago, if oil drillers hit ratio of 50% it was considered average. Now, the hit

ratio is as good as 95%. The higher hit ratio suggests the probability of extracting

more crude oil. Improving technology and productivity will lead to more US crude oil

production despite historically low crude oil rigs. The current turmoil in the oil

market suggests that oil rigs could fall more. Oil producers like Laredo Petroleum

(LPI), Whiting Petroleum (WLL), EOG Resources (EOG), and Pioneer Natural

Resources (PXD)are feeling the heat due to the depressed energy market. For more

on US energy companies financial woes, readUS Oil and Gas Companies Debt

Exceeds $200 Billion.If the US crude oil production doesnt slow down, we could see

crude oil trade atlow levels for the next two decades.

Supply and demand
http://marketrealist.com/analysis/stock-analysis/energy-power/upsteam-oil-gas/charts/?featured_post=1038301&featured_chart=1038349http://marketrealist.com/analysis/stock-analysis/energy-power/upsteam-oil-gas/charts/?featured_post=1038301&featured_chart=1038349http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/slb/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/slb/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/slb/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/spn/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/spn/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/spn/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/hal/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/hal/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/hal/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/lpi/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/lpi/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/lpi/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/wll/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/wll/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/wll/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/eog/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/eog/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/eog/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/pxd/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/pxd/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/pxd/http://marketrealist.com/2015/12/us-oil-gas-companies-debt-exceeds-200-billion/http://marketrealist.com/2015/12/us-oil-gas-companies-debt-exceeds-200-billion/http://marketrealist.com/2015/12/us-oil-gas-companies-debt-exceeds-200-billion/http://marketrealist.com/2015/12/us-oil-gas-companies-debt-exceeds-200-billion/http://marketrealist.com/2015/12/roller-coaster-crude-oil-prices-nothing-new/http://marketrealist.com/2015/12/roller-coaster-crude-oil-prices-nothing-new/http://marketrealist.com/2015/12/roller-coaster-crude-oil-prices-nothing-new/http://marketrealist.com/analysis/stock-analysis/energy-power/upsteam-oil-gas/charts/?featured_post=1038301&featured_chart=1038349http://marketrealist.com/2015/12/roller-coaster-crude-oil-prices-nothing-new/http://marketrealist.com/2015/12/us-oil-gas-companies-debt-exceeds-200-billion/http://marketrealist.com/2015/12/us-oil-gas-companies-debt-exceeds-200-billion/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/pxd/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/eog/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/wll/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/lpi/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/hal/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/spn/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/slb/http://marketrealist.com/analysis/stock-analysis/energy-power/upsteam-oil-gas/charts/?featured_post=1038301&featured_chart=1038349


13/17

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimates that US crude oil

production could fall by 600,000 bpd (barrels per day) in 2016. Wood Mackenzie

estimates that the global oil production fell by 100,000 bpd since the oil glut in June

2014. Morgan Stanley estimates that the oil glut market could balance after mid-

2017.

Refined products demand in the US fell by 3.9% in January 2016 compared to the

previous month. The speculation of a fall in the oil demand from the US and China

could impact oil prices. Read the next part of the series to learn more about Chinas

demand. To learn more about crude oil production, readSaudi Arabias Crude Oil

Production: Key for the Global Oil MarketandOPEC Crude Oil Production Is Breaking

Records.To learn about Russias crude oil production, readRussias Production Will

Put More Pressure on the Crude Oil Market.In the next part of this series, well

discuss Chinas crude oil production.

ETFs

The roller coaster ride in the oil and gas market also impacts ETFs and ETNs like the

ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF (SCO), the First Trust Energy

AlphaDEX Fund (FXN), and the Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE).



GraphSCOLPIWLLSPNHALXLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF))May '15Sep

'15Jan '16May '16-200%-100%0% + 100% + 200% + 300%

Part 7


Chinas Crude Oil Production: A Game Changer in 2016?


Chinas crude oil production

The data compiled by Bloomberg state that Chinas crude oil production could fall by

3%5% in 2016. The fall in Chinas crude oil production would be substituted by therise in Chinas crude oil imports. China is the second-largest crude oil importer. Its
http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/saudi-arabias-crude-oil-production-key-global-oil-market/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/saudi-arabias-crude-oil-production-key-global-oil-market/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/saudi-arabias-crude-oil-production-key-global-oil-market/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/saudi-arabias-crude-oil-production-key-global-oil-market/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/opec-crude-oil-production-breaking-records/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/opec-crude-oil-production-breaking-records/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/opec-crude-oil-production-breaking-records/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/opec-crude-oil-production-breaking-records/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/russias-production-will-put-pressure-crude-oil-market/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/russias-production-will-put-pressure-crude-oil-market/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/russias-production-will-put-pressure-crude-oil-market/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/russias-production-will-put-pressure-crude-oil-market/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/sco/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/sco/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/sco/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/fxn/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/fxn/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/fxn/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/vde/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/vde/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/vde/http://ads.pointroll.com/PortalServe/?pid=2653861N73220150622184247&pos=c&r=%5bRANDOM%5dhttp://marketrealist.com/quote-page/vde/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/fxn/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/sco/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/russias-production-will-put-pressure-crude-oil-market/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/russias-production-will-put-pressure-crude-oil-market/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/opec-crude-oil-production-breaking-records/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/opec-crude-oil-production-breaking-records/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/saudi-arabias-crude-oil-production-key-global-oil-market/http://marketrealist.com/2016/02/saudi-arabias-crude-oil-production-key-global-oil-market/


14/17

also the fifth-largest crude oil producer in the world. Chinas crude oil production hit

4.3 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in 2015. The Chinese crude oil production is

expected to fall in 2016 due to the highertotal cost of producing crude oil.

Enlarge Graph

Chinas crude oil productioncould fall

Thebreak-even costsfor Chinas top oil producers like CNOOC (CEO)were at $41 per

barrel. Some of the other key Chinese oil producers are China Petroleum & Chemical

(SNP)and PetroChina (PTR). The historic fall in crude oil impacts Chinese oil and

global oil producers like BP (BP), Total (TOT), and Eni (E). The higherbreak-even costs

pushed Chinese and international oil producers to curb production and slash capital

expenditures. So, we could see Chinas crude production decline in the years tocome.

However, the depreciating Chinese dollar could impact Chinas crude oil imports. To

learn more, readHow China Is Creating a Big Crack in the Global Crude Oil Market.

You can also readChinas Crude Oil Imports: Teapot Refiners Will Be Key Catalysts .

The catastrophic fall in crude oil prices impacts US oil producers like Apache (APA),

Murphy Oil (MUR), and Hess (HES). The ups and downs in the oil and gas market also

impact ETFs like the Fidelity MSCI Energy Index ETF (FENY)and the ProShares

UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF (SCO).
http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/crude-oils-total-cost-production-impacts-major-oil-producers/http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/crude-oils-total-cost-production-impacts-major-oil-producers/http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/crude-oils-total-cost-production-impacts-major-oil-producers/http://marketrealist.com/analysis/stock-analysis/energy-power/upsteam-oil-gas/charts/?featured_post=1038302&featured_chart=1038363http://marketrealist.com/analysis/stock-analysis/energy-power/upsteam-oil-gas/charts/?featured_post=1038302&featured_chart=1038363http://marketrealist.com/2015/01/breakeven-price-crude-oil-important/http://marketrealist.com/2015/01/breakeven-price-crude-oil-important/http://marketrealist.com/2015/01/breakeven-price-crude-oil-important/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/ceo/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/ceo/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/ceo/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/snp/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/snp/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/snp/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/ptr/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/ptr/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/ptr/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/bp/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/bp/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/bp/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/tot/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/tot/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/tot/http://marketrealist.com/2015/01/breakeven-price-crude-oil-important/http://marketrealist.com/2015/01/breakeven-price-crude-oil-important/http://marketrealist.com/2015/01/breakeven-price-crude-oil-important/http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/china-creating-big-crack-global-crude-oil-market/http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/china-creating-big-crack-global-crude-oil-market/http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/china-creating-big-crack-global-crude-oil-market/http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/chinas-crude-oil-imports-teapot-refiners-will-key-catalysts/http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/chinas-crude-oil-imports-teapot-refiners-will-key-catalysts/http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/chinas-crude-oil-imports-teapot-refiners-will-key-catalysts/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/apa/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/apa/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/apa/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/mur/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/mur/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/mur/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/hes/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/hes/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/hes/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/feny/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/feny/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/feny/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/sco/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/sco/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/sco/http://marketrealist.com/analysis/stock-analysis/energy-power/upsteam-oil-gas/charts/?featured_post=1038302&featured_chart=1038363http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/sco/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/feny/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/hes/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/mur/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/apa/http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/chinas-crude-oil-imports-teapot-refiners-will-key-catalysts/http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/china-creating-big-crack-global-crude-oil-market/http://marketrealist.com/2015/01/breakeven-price-crude-oil-important/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/tot/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/bp/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/ptr/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/snp/http://marketrealist.com/quote-page/ceo/http://marketrealist.com/2015/01/breakeven-price-crude-oil-important/http://marketrealist.com/analysis/stock-analysis/energy-power/upsteam-oil-gas/charts/?featured_post=1038302&featured_chart=1038363http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/crude-oils-total-cost-production-impacts-major-oil-producers/


15/17

In the next part of this series, well look at forecasts for crude oil prices.



GraphPTRSNPSCOMURAPAXLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF))May

'15Sep '15Jan '16May '16-100%0% + 100% + 200% + 300%

Part 8


US Dollar Could Support Crude Oil Prices in the Short

Term


Crude oil price trend

US crude oil prices fell below the key psychological level of $30 per barrel. Oil priceshave fallen by almost 20% in 2016 due to long-term oversupply concerns. The rising

US crude oil inventory and the depreciating dollar could swing crude oil prices.
http://ads.pointroll.com/PortalServe/?pid=2653861N73220150622184247&pos=c&r=%5bRANDOM%5d


16/17

Enlarge Graph

Support and resistance levels

Lower oil prices and rising demand from China, as we covered in the previous part of

series, could support crude oil prices. Crude oil prices could see resistance at $37 per

barrel. Prices hit this mark in November 2015. Speculation of the depreciating dollar

in the short term, due to the Feds delay in the interest rate hike, could also support

crude oil prices

Rising production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to

Russia will continue to put pressure on crude oil prices. The next support for crude

oil prices is seen at $25 per barrel. Prices tested this level in 2003.

Crude oil price estimates

The data compiled by Bloomberg suggest that US crude oil could hit as high as $46

per barrel in 4Q16. Similarly, Brent crude oil prices could hit $48 per barrel. Morgan

Stanley estimates that Brent crude oil prices could average $31 per barrel in 1Q16

and $30 per barrel in 2Q16 and 3Q16, respectively. Goldman Sachs suggests that

crude oil prices could peak around $40 per barrel by the end of 2016 and bottom

around $20 per barrel. The World Bank estimates that crude oil prices will tradearound $37 per barrel in 2016.
http://marketrealist.com/analysis/stock-analysis/energy-power/upsteam-oil-gas/charts/?featured_post=1038303&featured_chart=1038366http://marketrealist.com/analysis/stock-analysis/energy-power/upsteam-oil-gas/charts/?featured_post=1038303&featured_chart=1038366http://marketrealist.com/analysis/stock-analysis/energy-power/upsteam-oil-gas/charts/?featured_post=1038303&featured_chart=1038366http://marketrealist.com/analysis/stock-analysis/energy-power/upsteam-oil-gas/charts/?featured_post=1038303&featured_chart=1038366


17/17

Impact

The speculation of long-term oversupply and lower oil prices could impact oil

producers profitability like PetroChina (PTR), Petrobras (PBR), Apache (APA),

Murphy Oil (MUR), and ConocoPhillips (COP). ETFs like the ProShares Ultra

Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF (UCO)and the ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil

ETF (SCO)are also impacted by the volatile crude oil market.

ReadWill Russia and OPEC Join Hands and Cut Crude Oil Production?for more on

the crude oil market.



GraphUCOAPAMURPBRPTRXLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF))May

'15Sep '15Jan '16May '16-100%-50%0% + 50% + 100%



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china s crude oil production- a game changer in 2016.pdf

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