china is slowing

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  • 8/8/2019 China is Slowing

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    China is slowing. Thats good newsTrung Quc ang chm li. l thng tin tt.

    Dont paint snake with legs, the Chinese will say, when someone is in danger of spoilingsomething by overdoing it. For months Chinas policymakers have been trying to slow thecountrys economy, which grew venomously in the year to the first quarter. The fear is that

    policymakers will overdo it, spoiling one of the rare sources of dynamism in a moribundworld economy.

    Khng sn con rn hai chn, ngi Trung Quc s ni, khi mt ai ang trong nguy c him ha ca nhng c hi bi hnhng qu mc ca h. i vi thng ca nhng nh hoch nh chnh sch ca Trung Quc c gng lm chm li nn kinht ca t nc, m nn kinh t ny tng trng nng trong qu u tin ca nm ny. lo s rng cc nh hoch nh chnhsch s hnh ng qu mc cn thit, nhng c hi l mt trong nhng ngun him hoi ca thuyt ng lc trong 1 nn kinht th gii suy tn.

    There were few signs of that in the economic picture provided by the National Bureau ofStatistics this week. Chinas output grew by 10.3% in the year to the second quarter, the

    bureau said, slower than its growth in previous quarter (11.9%), but not too much slower.Inflation also eased, falling back below the central banks official target of 3%, thanks partlyto cheaper fruit and vegetables.C vi du hiu rng trong bc tranh kinh t cung cp ca Cc Thng k quc gia trong tun ny. Sn lng ca Trung Quctng 10,3% trong qu II nm ny, vn phng cho bit, chm hn so vi tng trng trong qu trc (11,9%), nhng khng quchm hn nhiu. Lm pht cng gim bt, ri xung di y mc tiu chnh thc ca ngn hng trung ng l 3%, nh mt

    phn tri cy v rau r hn.In recent months, the price of fruit and veg has troubled policymakers less than the price of

    bricks and mortar. They worried that a property bubble and a mortgage boom, if leftunchecked, might threaten the balance-sheets of households, banks and local govermentsalike. But the average house price in 70 of Chinas cities fell by 0.1% in June from a monthearlier, the first decline for well over a year. The drop follows the governments efforts inApril to curb speculation in the property market by stiffening mortgage rates and raisingdown-payment requirements.

    Trong nhng thng gn y, gi ca tri cy v rau lm cho cc nh hoch nh chnh sch gp kh khn t hn so vi gica gch v va. H lo lng rng mt s bng n th chp v s pht trin nng ca bt ng sn, nu c kim sot, c the da bng cn i k ton ca h gia nh, ngn hng v cng nh chnh quyn a phng. Tuy nhin, gi nh trung bnhtrong 70 thnh ph ca Trung Quc gim 0,1% trong thng su so vi thng trc , s suy gim u tin trong hn mt nm.S gim ny l h qu nhng n lc ca chnh ph trong thng t hn ch u c trong th trng bt ng sn bng cchlm c nh mc li sut th chp v nng cao nhu cu tr tin mt.

    As prices fall, homebuilding will follow. The government hopes to offset this decline with arapid expansion of affordable housing. It has set provincial governments a target of 5.8m newhomes this year. But Stephen Green of Standard Chartered doubts that local officials will takethis quota too seriously. They may buy unwanted housing off developers, which would

    placate their overseers in Beijing but add nothing to Chinas GDP. Or they may rush to startprojects this year, but take their time in finishing them.Khi gi gim, xy dng nh s nh hng theo. Chnh ph hy vng b p s gim st ny vi mt s m rng nhanh chngca nh vi gi c phi chng. Vic ny s t cho chnh quyn tnh mt mc tiu ca 5,8 triu ngi nh mi trong nm nay.Nhng Stephen Green ca Standard Chartered nghi ng rng cc quan chc a phng s coi iu nh l 1 hn ngch nyrt nghim trng. H c th mua nh khng mong mun m khng phi v s pht trin, m c th xoa du nh qun l ca hti Bc Kinh nhng khng thm c g vo tng thu nhp quc ni (GDP) ca Trung Quc. Hoc h c th vi vng bt ucc d n trong nm nay, nhng h s mt thi gian ca h trong hon thin chng.

    Chinas slowdown is not necessarily bad news by most measures, Chinas economy is now

    operating at full capacity. Nor is it really news. Other indicators of activity suggest theeconomy has been slowing for some months. Although the countrys first-quarter GDP figurewas eye-poping, this was only in comparison with the miserable first quarter of 2009. Severaleconomists reckon the quarterly growth rate peaked last year.S chm li ca Trung Quc khng nht thit phi tin xu - bi hu ht cc bin php cho chng ta thy nn kinh t ca TrungQuc hin ang hot ng ht cng sut. Cng khng phi l thng tin thc. cc ch s khc hot ng cho thy nn kinh t b chm mt vi thng. Mc d con s v GDP Trung Quc ca qu u tin rt bo b (tt p)???, iu ny ch so vi qu ukhn kh ca nm 2009. Mt s nh kinh t ngh tc tng trng hng qu ln n nh im nm ngoi.

    Indeed, Mr Green thinks Chinas policymakers have already finished the job of slowing theeconomy. Unlike some of their neighbours, they have not raised interest rates. Nor did theyallow the yuan to strengthen against the dollar until last month. But in China, Mr Green says,what counts is the fine print of policy. The government looks serious about curbing credit,

    having told banks not to add more than 7.5 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) to their loan books thusyear, a huge amount but still 22% less than last year.

    Tht vy, ng Green cho rng hoch nh chnh sch ca Trung Quc hon thnh cng vic ca nn kinh t ang chm li.Khng ging nh mt s hng xm ca h, h khng tng li sut. Cng khng cho php nhn dn t tng cng so ving -la M cho n khi thng trc. Nhng Trung Quc, ng Green ni rng, nhng g m l "tin pht in ???" ca chnh

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    sch. Chnh ph s nghim tc trong vic kim ch tn dng, tng ni vi cc ngn hng khng thm trn 7,5 nghn t yuanNht (tng ng 1,1 nghn t -la M) s sch cho vay ca h nh vy, nm nay, mt s lng ln nhng vn cn 22% thn nm ngoi.

    Regulators have also stopped banks from co-operating with trust companies, which gotaround credit quotas by raising money from banks retail customers and lending it to propertycompanies, among others. The central government has begun to rein in local-government

    borrowing and it is approving fewer infrastructure projects. But if policymakers fear they

    have added legs to the snake, they will lift these measures as quickly as they imposed them.Nh qun l cng dng li t cc ngn hng hp tc vi cc cng ty tin tng, trong c khong hn ngch tn dng bngcch tng tin t khch hng bn l ca ngn hng v cho vay cho cc cng ty bt ng sn, trong s nhng ngi khc. Chnhquyn trung ng bt u kim ch chnh ph a phng vay v n c ph duyt d n c s h tng t hn. Nhngnu hoch nh chnh sch lo s h c thm chn cho rn, h s d b cc bin php ny nhanh nh h i vi chng.