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8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Health CareHealth Care

Industry Update

AsiaChinaHong Kong

Industry

2018 OutlookDate8 December 2017

Deutsche BankMarkets Research

We still see opportunities

We prefer quality names with robust pipelines and mispriced opportunitiesOur top picks include Sino Biopharm Jointown and Universal Medical while wetake Hengrui off the top list due to valuation We believe quality manufacturerswith a strong pipeline should continue to outperform while SBP has multiplepositive catalysts on key pipeline drugs that have not been properly reflected in thestock We also believe there are still mispriced opportunities such as JointownWhile consensus has penalized the entire distribution sector we see Jointownemerging as a winner from the zero-sum game of two invoices

Multiple positive catalysts aheadWe expect NRDL impact on PampL starting 1Q18 and accelerated regulatoryapprovals as key catalysts for large-cap stocks We highlight that SBP CSPC and3SBio have 12 6 and 3 drugs that were included in the new NRDL representingabout 19 26 and 56 of YTD3Q17 revenue respectively We also expect3-4 blockbuster approvals for SBP and Hengrui respectively and 2-3 key drugapprovals from CSPC in 2018 Additionally we believe the ongoing two-invoicereform will create a nadir during 3Q17 to 2Q18 while an inflection point is highlylikely in 2H18 We believe it would be a good time to re-examine opportunitieswithin the distribution segment in the next few quarters

Expect improving regulatory framework and rebound of approvalsRegulatory data indicated a rapidly rising number of innovative drug approvalsYTD17 along with much shorter review times 35 innovative drugs (class 11) havebeen approved YTD17 vs 6 6 3 in 2016 2015 and 2014 We have observed muchshorter review periods where few high-profile drugs were approved within 2-3months of filing a new record for the CFDA We highlight there was one domesticclass 11 drug approval and only a few FTM generics in 2017 likely leading to arebound of regulatory approvals in 2018 Notably of the 142 applications fromdomestic players that are under priority review for production Hengrui SBP andCSPC own 10 8 and 4 compounds respectively

Expect valuation gap to widen for large cap names valuation and risksHeading into 2018 we anticipate trading multiples on large-cap names are likelyto differentiate as investors dig deeper on key valuation variables such as POSand peak sales Current sector valuation appears to be slightly high as the MSCIChina HC Index is trading at 189x FTM EPS above its three-year average of 177xKey risks include price erosion reimbursement reform and regulatory delays

Jack Hu PhD

Research Analyst

+852-2203 6208

Megan Xu

Research Associate

+852-2203 5928

Top picks

Jointown Pharmaceuticals(600998SS)CNY1859

Buy

Universal Medical (2666HK)HKD694 Buy

Sino Biopharmaceutical(1177HK)HKD1022

Buy

Source Deutsche Bank

Companies featured

JointownPharmaceuticals(600998SS)CNY1859

Buy

2016A 2017E 2018E

PE (x) 377 330 282

EVEBITDA (x) 168 130 105

Pricebook (x) 302 217 203

Universal Medical (2666HK)HKD694 Buy

2016A 2017E 2018E

PE (x) 99 87 64

EVEBITDA (x) 203 194 170

Pricebook (x) 14 14 12

Sino Biopharmaceutical(1177HK)HKD1022

Buy

2016A 2017E 2018E

PE (x) 202 324 283

EVEBITDA (x) 104 167 144

Pricebook (x) 46 73 60Source Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank AGHong Kong

Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports Thus investors should beaware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report Investors should considerthis report as only a single factor in making their investment decision DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONSARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1 MCI (P) 083042017 THE CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN THE PEOPLESREPUBLIC OF CHINA (ldquoTHE PRCrdquo) (EXCEPT IN COMPLIANCE WITH THE APPLICABLE LAWS AND REGULATIONS OFPRC) EXCLUDING SPECIAL ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS OF HONG KONG AND MACAU

Distributed on 08122017 025111 GMT

0bed7b6cf11c

8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Executive summary2018 outlook

We still see opportunitiesAs large-cap manufacturers rallied significantly with only sporadic upwardearnings revisions in 2017 we see fewer opportunities with compelling risk-reward profiles vs YE2016 At present we prefer quality names with a robustpipeline along with mispriced opportunities

For Sino Biopharm we expect the following catalysts four potential blockbusterapprovals improving visibility on its early stage innovative pipeline (TQ series) andbiosimilar pipeline and potential business developmentMampA opportunities ForJointown we expect the following catalysts continuous market-share gain undertwo-invoice outflow of outpatient traffic to lower-tier institutions and outflow ofprescription drugs to drug stores from hospitals As Jointown has 85 revenueexposure in tier 2 and below hospitals the benefits overweigh the limited impactfrom the two-invoice policy As such we believe this is a mispriced opportunityin the midlong term

Anticipate NRDL benefit and rebound of regulatory approvalsWe estimate meaningful benefits from NRDL to materialize on company PampLsfrom 1Q18 as NRDL implementation which started in September 2017 has beendelayed at hospital level We highlight that SBP CSPC and 3SBio have 12 6 and3 drugs newly included in the 2017 NRDL representing about 19 26 and56 of YTD3Q17 revenue respectively

We also expect a rebound of approvals for domestic innovative drugs and FTMSTM generics as available data indicated that only MNCs have taken advantage ofaccelerated approvals from CFDA so far Since the introduction of priority reviewin 2016 a total of 323 applications have been added to the list with 42 and 58from MNCs and local companies respectively Despite the introduction of PRL(priority review list) we have not seen any meaningful FTM generic approvalsuntil this past weekend when three high profile FTMs were approved signalingthe first meaningful domestic approvals since July 2015

Expect widening valuation gap among large-cap namesIn 2H17 the rally of large-cap manufacturers exhibited two distinctive paradigmsincluding the relative valuation to the most expensive comp as well as a hefty butindiscriminate premium on large-cap names only Retrospectively value investingworked as long as one had conviction in pipeline valuation and exposure to thosenames Going into 2018 we see alpha generation on three fronts includingidentifying under-estimated opportunities (such as SBP) miscalculated risks(such as overestimated peak sales of drugs from midsmall companies) andmispriced names (such as Jointown) beyond the obvious intention to chaselaggers including distributors and hospital names

Page 2 Deutsche Bank AGHong Kong

8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

As we head into 2018 we anticipate the valuation gap specifically tradingmultiples on large-cap names is likely to widen as investors dig deeper onkey variables such as POS and peak sales We favor leaders such as SBP andHengrui due to their proven capability on market access and marketing prowess

For near term we caution two types of names that experienced significantmultiple expansion those without any meaningful upward earnings revision butrallied based on relative valuation and those with limited revision However theadditional earnings upside is derived from businesses (such as API business) thatdo not deserve the same multiple as innovative drugs do

Valuation

Current sector valuation multiples appear to be slightly high for HK namesoverall and moderate for A-share names The MSCI China Healthcare Index iscurrently trading at 189x on 12-month forward EPS compared with the three-year average of 177x On A-shares the MSCI China A Healthcare Index is tradingat 253x on 12-month forward EPS below the three-year average of 261x Wecontinue to favor names with quality pipeline such as SBP and Hengrui alongwith undervalued opportunities as for Jointown and Universal Medical

Risks

Key risks include a macro-economic slowdown price cuts from drug tendersdelayed regulatory process for key drugs as well as policy headwinds includingbut not limited to reimbursement reform two-invoice implementation and zeromark-up

Deutsche Bank AGHong Kong Page 3

8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

We expect the following positive catalysts in 2018

Positive impact on PampL from NRDL implementationAs the 2017 NRDL implementation completed across 22 provincescities weexpect financial impact starting 1Q18 as a key catalyst for large-cap namesWe highlight that SBP CSPC 3SBio and Hengrui have 12 6 3 and 8 drugsnewly added to or removed from restriction in the 2017 NRDL representing19 26 56 and 36 of YTD3Q17 revenue respectively (we use 1H17 or2016 data instead if YTD3Q17 data is not available) On the magnitude of growthacceleration we anticipate 1) the potential impact on company PampL is likely tostart in 1Q18 2) 1000-1500 bps growth acceleration for drugs with sales ofRMB1-2bn 3) duration of 6-8 quarters on a national level

We summarize below the new additions to the 2017 NRDL and adjustments toindicate restriction for drugs included previously as well as the percent of revenueeach drug represents respectively

Figure 1 Key drugs added to 2017 NRDL inclusionCompany Drug name (EN) Drug name (CN) Generic name (EN) Generic name (CN) Remarks of total revenue

Hengrui Ai Tan 刦 Apatinib mesylate tablets 䓚䢢愠旧ⶽ㚧䇯 Added to list B 12

Ai Bei Ning 㢮䍍ᆱ Dexmedetomidine hydrochloride injectionⴀ䞨ਣ㖾ᢈᇊሴ Added to list B 8

Ai Su 㢮 Docetaxel for injection ሴཊ㾯Ԇ䎋 List B removal of restrictions to 2nd line treatment 8

Ai Li 刦≃ Irinotecan Hydrochloride Ẳ䩳㚧List B removal of restrictions to 2nd line treatment

in tier 1 and special hospitals4

Heng Yang ᚂᢜ Imrecoxib 㢮⪎᱄ᐳ Added to list B for 2nd line treatment only 4

Ai Tuo 刦⥍ Topotecan 㱲㚧 Added to list B NA

Daptomycin for injection 䗮ᢈ䴹 Daptomycin for injection 䗮ᢈ䴹Added to list B restricted to SAB (staphylococcus

aureus bacteremia) indicationNA

Rui Yang ⪎ᢜ Febuxostat tablets 䶎ᐳਨԆ

Added to list B restricted to renal failure or

allopurinol hypersensitivity syndrome of gout

patients

NA

Subtotal

SBP Yilunping Ֆᒣ IrbesartanHydrochlorothiazide 䍍⋉ඖ≒≟ಫచ Added to list B 4

Tuotuo ᢈ Rosuvastatin ⪎㡂ՀԆ≰ List B removal of restrictions to 2nd line treatment 4

Kaifen 剔 Flurbiprofen axetil 㯇㭼㳃剔愗㲐㵚

Added to list B restricted to drug inefficacy of

postoperative analgesia among advanced cancer

patients

3

Saiweijian rarr㤕 Palonosetron hydrochloride injection ⴀ䞨ᑅ䈪ਨ⩬ሴAdded to list B restricted to 2nd line patients with

dysphagia2

Shoufu 俆䕄 Capecitabine ษԆ Added to list B 1

Gelike Ṭቬਟ Imatinib mesylate capsules 䞨Ժ傜ᴯቬ㜦

Added to list B restricted to chronic myelogenous

leukemia (CML) patients with Philadelphia

chromosome-positive or gastrointestinal stromal

tumor (GIST)

1

Qingweike Ფୟਟ Decitabine for injection ሴൠ㾯ԆAdded to list B restricted to severe myelodysplastic

syndromes (MDS) patients1

Tianjie 妋 Tigecycline 㚧asymp䍗䳈 Added to list B 1

Kaina 䛓 Beraprost sodium tablets 䍍ࡇ䫐Added to list B restricted to chronic arterial

occlusion and intermittent claudication patients1

Yinishu ቬ㡂 Dasatinib tablets 䗮⋉ᴯቬ


leukemia (CML) patients with Imatinib resistance or

intolerance

1

Fadi 㲼忑 Mitiglinide Calcium Hydrate Tablets 䱚㠣⇾⤯撀䈮 Added to list B NA

Qingzhong 㙛Ỿ Tenofovir disoproxil 㚧客䤷枎Ḵ愗 Added to list B 0

Subtotal

3SBio TPIAO ∄ rH Thrombopoietin injection 䟽㓴Ӫ㹰ሿᶯᡀሴ List B removal of restrictions 29

Yisaipu 䎋Პ Etanerceptሴ䟽㓴ӪĊර㛯ⱔൿഐᆀਇփ-ᣇփ㶽ਸ㳻ⲭ

Added to list B 26

Qiming granules 㣚仇 Qiming granules 㣚仇Added to list B restricted to diabetic retinopathy

(DR) of type II diabetes patients 2

Subtotal

Source Deutsche Bank Company data MOH


8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Figure 2 Key drugs added to 2017 NRDL inclusion - continuedCompany Drug name (EN) Drug name (CN) Generic name (EN) Generic name (CN) Remarks of total revenue

CSPC NBP Injection 發犲鯢Butylphthalide and sodium chloride

injectionН柗155182o充侷B屶ゃ Added to list B restricted to mild-moderate stroke 23

Jinyouli ｀家持 Peg rH-GCSF 導暗因綶充脬氈曳B渣类鮭₈輩坏Added to list B 2

Nuolining 淛咲壜 Imatinib mesylate capsules 59〚155660穏47龕巛娜把




tumor (GIST)

1

Ibutilide ẲⶫuArr䈡 Ibutilide ẲⶫuArr䈡Added to list B restricted to cardioversion of atrial

fibrillationNA

Ertapenem Ṿ⋿ Ertapenem Ṿ⋿ Added to list B NA

Duo Mei Su 伶䳈Doxorubicin Hydrochloride Liposomal

Injection䙸愠㝼㭼㗇傪峐ỻ㲐㵚 Added to list A NA

Subtotal

Xinhuosu 㕘㳣䳈 Nesiritide 㲐䓐慵乬Ṣ傹uArr摈健 Added to list B

Fosun Youlitong 家わ㵤 Febuxostat tablets 蹍柞垂延



patients

2

Bang Zhi 恎 Pitavastatin ⋡ẸṾ㯨 Added to list B 1

Fu Ling 羊я Composite aloe capsules 羊靜愜澚娜把 Added to list B 1

Yi Luo Ze 仿㲥 Pemetrexers 伶㚚

Added to list B restricted to adcvanced or

metastatic Non-squamous cell non-small cell lung

cancer (NSCLC) and patients

0

NA NA Ibutilide ẲⶫuArr䈡Added to list B restricted to atrial fibrillation

treatmentNA

One-component insulin ⋽乬↮傘ⱃ䳈 One-component insulin ⋽乬↮傘ⱃ䳈 Added to list A NA

Wan Bang Lin ᶯ恎㜿 Protamine recombinant human insulin nイt脬氈曳曼怙IcircB屶ゃ Added to list B NA

Wan Su Lin ᶯ剷㜿 Low Protamine zinc insulin Ỷ䱦噳䘥撴傘ⱃ䳈 Added to list A NA

Protamine zinc insulin 䱦噳䘥撴傘ⱃ䳈 Protamine zinc insulin 䱦噳䘥撴傘ⱃ䳈 Added to list A NA

Subtotal

CBPO Human albumin 曳ゟtイt Human albumin 曳ゟtイt

Added to list B restricted to emergency use severe

diseases or albumin level lower than 30gL caused

by liver cirrhosis cancer

36

IVIG踋B曳孤ふ29イtprimepH4Prime

B屶擦IVIG

踋B曳孤ふ29イtprimepH4Prime

B屶擦

Added to list B restricted to primary immune

globulin deficiency neonatal septicemia severe

primary immune thrombocytopenia Kawasaki

disease generalized myasthenia gravis (GMG) and

acute guillain-barre syndrome

33

Human coagulation factor VIII 曳惚ゟ輩坏I B屶擦 Human coagulation factor VIII 曳惚ゟ輩坏I Added to list A NA

Prothrombin complex

concentrate 曳惚ゟ絀丞羊崇へ Prothrombin complex concentrate 曳惚ゟ絀丞羊崇へ

Added to list B restricted to overbleeding in

surgeries hemophilia BNA

Subtotal



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Hualan Human albumin ạ堧䙤嚲䙤 Human albumin ạ堧䙤嚲䙤Added to list B restricted to emergency use severe



43

IVIG杀㳏ạℴ䖒䏪嚲䙤ƋpH4ƌ

㳏capIVIG

杀㳏ạℴ䖒䏪嚲䙤ƋpH4ƌ

㳏cap






32

Human coagulation factor VIII ạ堧⬷ʺ 㳏cap Human coagulation factor VIII ạ堧⬷ʺ Added to list A NA

Prothrombin complex

concentrate ạ堧慝䉐 Prothrombin complex concentrate ạ堧慝䉐



Subtotal

Humanwell Rui Ning 擷 Hydromorphone hydrochloride injection 䚷慟㰉慕 Added to list B NA

Rui Jing 䑅杀 Nalbuphine hydrochloride injection 䚷慟亚㳏㶙Added to list B restricted to combined anesthesia

usesNA

Fufang Gaoziban tablets 㖠檿㺲㕸䈮 Fufang Gaoziban tablets 㖠檿㺲㕸䈮 Added to list B NA

Hugan Buzure keli 傄䤽䃔桾䱹 Hugan Buzure keli 傄䤽䃔桾䱹 Added to list B NA

Shiliu Buxiu syrup 䟚㦛塌堧䲽㴭 Shiliu Buxiu syrup 䟚㦛塌堧䲽㴭 Added to list B NA

Mamuran Zhixie capsules 䎂㜏䄝㭉㳢僝 Mamuran Zhixie capsules 䎂㜏䄝㭉㳢僝 Added to list B NA

Qingre Kasen particles 㷬䃔㣕桾䱹 Qingre Kasen particles 㷬䃔㣕桾䱹 Added to list B NA

Fentanyl citrate injection 㞟㩣慟劓⤑Ⱓ㳏㶙 Fentanyl 劓⤑ⰣList A adjusted from list B to list A removal of

restrictionNA

Rui Jie 䑅 Remifentanil 䑅劓⤑Ⱓ List B removal of restrictions to surgical use NA

CTCM Yu Ping Feng Granule 䍰ⰶ梵桾䱹 Yu Ping Feng Granule 䍰ⰶ梵桾䱹 Removal of restrictions on inpatients use only 4

Fengshi Gutong Capsules 梵㹦檏䗂僝 Fengshi Gutong Capsules 梵㹦檏䗂僝 List A adjusted from list B to list A 1

Subtotal

United Lab You Le Ling 倻悍ỿḷ䁜 Insulin glargine 䓿䲥僗Ⲃ䴇List B restricted to type I diabetes patients or type II

patients with limited efficacy from midlong-acting

insulin

NA

Gansulin 30R 䓿凹曽 30R Premix human insulin 3070 3070㷞憴享ạ僗Ⲃ䴇㳏㶙 List A adjusted from list B to list A NA



Gansulin N 䓿凹曽 N Protamine recombinant human insulin 䲥嚲䙤憴享ạ僗Ⲃ䴇㳏㶙 Added to List B NA

Gansulin R 䓿凹曽 R Recombinant human insulin 憴享ạ僗Ⲃ䴇㳏㶙 List A adjusted from list B to list A NA

Subtotal

Xin Tong 㖗态 Guaci skin injection 䓃味䚕㳏㶙Added to List B restricted to patients with coronary

heart disease and angina pectoris in tier 1 and tier 2

hospitals

NA



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Accelerated regulatory approvalWe highlight that the time required to obtain manufacturing approval in China hassubstantially shortened this year for innovative as well as class 31 compounds

For innovative compounds we note that AZD9291 Tagrisso (osimertinib) recordedthe shortest time in approval history at 49 days In addition Jardiancefrom Boehringer Ingelheim Daklinza and Sunvepra from BMS received CFDAmanufacturing approval after 44m54m54m respectively compared with over40 months for quite a few in 2014 and 2015

As a result 35 innovative drugs were able to launch in YTD17 vs 6 6 3 drugsin 2016 2015 2014 respectively As MNCs have mostly taken advantage of theimproved regulatory framework so far we expect more from domestic players Webelieve domestic bellwethers with strong innovative pipelines such as Hengrui3SBio and THDB would benefit from the trend

We summarize below the approval times of innovative drugs in recent years aswell as the number of innovative drug launches by both MNCs and domesticplayers

Figure 4 Time required to obtain manufacturingapproval for innovative drugs

Figure 5 Innovative drug approvals 2014 - YTD Oct 2017

Empagliflozin

Osimertinib

Daclatasvir

Asunaprevir

May-17

Mar-17

Mar-17

Jan-17

Dec-16

Nov-16

Nov-16

Aug-16

May-15

Mar-13

Feb-12

Jul-11

May-10

Jun-09

May-08

01020304050607080

Sep-17

Sep-17

Sep-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Apr-17

Aug-17

Jun-17

Nov-17

Jan-15

Mar-14

Mar-14

Jun-14

Mar-14

Nov-14

Filing time

Time required for approval (months)

Approval time

3

1

2

1

5

4

34

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

2014

2015

2016

2017

Domestic MNC

Source Deutsche Bank CFDA Source Deutsche Bank CFDA


8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

For class 31 applications by domestic players the time required for approvalwas reduced to an average of 24 months for applications filed in 2014-15 vs 38months for applications filed in 2012-13 and 60 months for those filed during orbefore 2011

We illustrate the shortening approval times for class 31 drugs by domesticcompanies in the following exhibit

Figure 6 Time required to obtain manufacturing approval for class 31 drugs by domestic companies

Sep-16

Aug-15

Jul-15

May-15

Feb-15

Nov-14

Sep-14

Aug-14

Jun-14

May-14

Apr-14

Apr-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Nov-13

Oct-13

Oct-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Dec-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Jul-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

Mar-12

Jan-12

Nov-11

Jul-11

Mar-11

Jan-11

Dec-10

Nov-10

Sep-10

Mar-10

May-09

Apr-06

020406080100120140

Jun-17

Aug-17

Aug-17

Apr-17

Sep-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Nov-16

Jul-17

Jul-16

Sep-17

Jan-16

Jan-16

Jul-16

Mar-16

Jul-16

Dec-15

Dec-15

Jul-17

Mar-16

Apr-17

Sep-17

Dec-15

Jul-17

Dec-14

Dec-15

Oct-16

Mar-17

Nov-15

Oct-17

May-14

Mar-17

Mar-16

Mar-16

May-17

Oct-14

Aug-17

Oct-14

Jan-14

Feb-15

Oct-15

Nov-16

Filing time

Tme required for approval (months)

Approval time

Source Source Deutsche Bank CFDA


8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

As for class 31 applications by MNC players approval times also shortened to anaverage of 13 months for those filed in 2014-15 vs 38 months for those filed in2012-13 and 55 months for those filed during or before 2011

We summarize below the reduced approval times for class 31 drugs by globalcompanies over the past few years

Figure 7 Time required to obtain manufacturing approval for class 31 drugs by global companies

Apr-16

Apr-16

Dec-15

Dec-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

May-15

Apr-15

Mar-15

Feb-15

Nov-14

Oct-14

Oct-14

Aug-14

Aug-14

Aug-14

Jul-14

Oct-13

Aug-13

May-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Oct-12

Jun-12

Jun-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Mar-12

Oct-11

Oct-11

Jul-11

Jul-11

Apr-11

Apr-11

Mar-11

Mar-11

Nov-10

Oct-08

010203040506070

Aug-17

Mar-17

Nov-16

Mar-17

Aug-16

Oct-16

Jan-16

Jan-16

Nov-16

Aug-15

Jun-15

Oct-16

Dec-16

May-15

May-15

May-15

May-15

Jul-16

Feb-15

Apr-16

Dec-14

Apr-17

May-17

Dec-16

Oct-14

Dec-14

Aug-14

Nov-16

Aug-16

Feb-15

Jul-14

Aug-16

Aug-16

May-16

Mar-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-14

Jan-14

Filing time


Approval time

Source Deutsche Bank CFDA


8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Potential drug launches in near termIn light of the improved processing times we highlight several domesticbellwethers with robust pipeline progress in recent years SBP Hengrui and CSPChave 8 7 10 compounds respectively awaiting regulatory review where they hadfiled for manufacturing approval during 2016-2017 We note the three companieshave additional 2 3 2 drugs under review respectively where they had filed formanufacturing approval before 2016

We summarize below all manufacturing approvals filed by SBP Hengrui and CSPCin 2016-2017 that are still under review We highlight that for certain drugs suchas CSPCs clopidogrel and ticagrelor the status start times according to CFDAwere technically much earlier In such cases however we adhere to the best ofour knowledge when CFDA officially started reviewing the latest version of theapplication

Figure 8 Manufacturing approval applications filed in 2016 2017 by selected large caps

Application no Drug name (EN) Drug name (CN) Brand name Indication Status Date of filing

SBP

CYHS1700293 Abiraterone acetate tablets 愳愠旧㭼䈡潁䇯 Zytiga Oncology Under regulatory review 1092017

CYHS1700138 Ambrisentan tablets ⬱䩳䓇䇯 Volibris CVD Under regulatory review 7142017

CYHS1700131 Apixaban tablets 旧⑴㱁䎕䇯 Eliquis CVD Under regulatory review 692017

CYHS1600206 Azacitidine injection 㲐䓐旧ㇶ傆功 Vidaza MDS Under regulatory review 5182017

CYHS1600193 Dipyridamole hydrochloride for

injection

㲐䓐䙸愠劗彦卓⎠㯨 Treanda Oncology Under regulatory review 5152017

CXHS1700004 Anlotinib hydrochloride capsules 䙸愠⬱仿㚧傞 NA Oncology Under regulatory review 3162017

CXHS1500136 Fosaprepitant dimeglumine

injection

㲐䓐䤷㱁⋡吉䓚傢 NA CINV Under regulatory review 332017

CXHS1300331 Bortezomib 䠤㚧Ỹ䰛 NA Oncology Under regulatory review 1222017

Hengrui Under regulatory review

CYHS1700301 Abiraterone acetate tablets 䞻䞨䱯∄嗉 Zytiga Oncology Under regulatory review 10232017

CYHS1700170 Azilsartan tablets 䱯喀⋉ඖ NA CVD Under regulatory review 8302017

CXHS1700013 Pyrotinib maleate tablets 傜ᶕ䞨ᴯቬ NA Oncology Under regulatory review 8222017

CYHS1700055 Temozolomide for injection ሴᴯ㧛㜪 NA Oncology Under regulatory review 6302017

CYHS1700082 Gefitinib Tablets ਹ䶎ᴯቬ Iressa Oncology Under regulatory review 6192017

CXSS1700005 19K ษ䶎Ṭਨӝሴ NA Oncology Under regulatory review 3242017

CYHS1790004 Paclitaxel For Injection (albumin

bound)

ሴᵹ䞷˄ⲭ㳻ⲭ㔃ਸර˅

Abraxane Oncology Under regulatory review 2202017

CSPC

CYHS1700224 Pramipexole Hydrochloride

Tablets

ⴀ䞨Პݻ Sifol Agitans paralysis Under regulatory review 10262017

CYHS1700226 Sunitinib malate capsules 㤩䞨㡂ቬᴯቬ㜦 Sutent Oncology Under regulatory review 8222017

CYHS1301414 Zoledronic acid injection ᶕ㟖䞨ሴ Aclasta Osteoporosis Pagetlsquos disease

Under regulatory review 762017

CYHS1790027 Dasatinib Tablets 䗮⋉ᴯቬ Sprycel CML Under regulatory review 552017

CYHS1790026 Clopidogrel bisulfate tablets 䞨≒≟Ṭ䴧 Plavix CVD Under regulatory review 3312017

CYHS1790022 Ticagrelor tablets ᴯṬ⪎ Brilinta CVD Under regulatory review 3232017


bound)



CYHS1690005 Moxifloxacin hydrochloride

tablets

ⴀ䞨㧛㾯⋉ᱏ Avelox Anti-infection Under regulatory review 1252016

CXZS0506728 Yan Lu Ru Kang tablets ዙ咯ңᓧ NA Clomastopathy Under regulatory review 11292016

CYHS1501338 Linezolid Injection 㜪ሴ Zyvox Anti-infection Under regulatory review 4272016

Source Deutsche Bank Company data yaozh

0 Deutsche Bank AGHong Kong

8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Newly created Priority Review Lists now include 323 applicationsWith the improved regulatory framework the CFDA has released 24 batches ofpriority review lists (PRL) since January 2016 accumulating to 323 applicationscollectively for IND and NDA as of November 2017 We highlight that 136 outof the 323 are from MNCs where Novartis Bayer and Pfizer are the mostrepresented As for domestic players Hengrui SBP CSPC respectively own 118 4 compounds on the priority lists including IND and NDA We believe theseapplications are likely to receive preferential treatment in the approval processbenefiting pipeline progress and the visibility of quality names As a reminderSBPs TDF was approved for HBV indication on November 29 according tomanagement

We summarize below drugs on the PRL by selected large cap manufacturers

Figure 9 Drugs on PRL by Hengrui SBP CSPC

Announcement date Application No Drug name (CN) Drug name (EN)

Hengrui

1292016 CYHS1201509 㳏䔏慲慟㲱劓 Caspofungin Acetate for Injection

4282016 CXHL1502031 䚷慟併⒑漢cap Dexmedetomidine Hydrochloride

7212016 CYHS1200814 摭慮㳏㶙 Gadobutrol Injection

7212016 CYHS1300223 䣡徥傄䙟撇㳏㶙 Fondaparinux Sodium Injection

7212016 CYHS1301372 䪲檏⋽慮㳏㶙 Paricalcitol Injection

10282016 CYHS1300522 㳏䔏䴒㜰慮Ƌ䙤嚲䙤人❲ƌ Paclitaxel for Injection (Albumin bound)

4132017 CYHS1400315 勖䣡桡昦㛙擜㳏㶙 Cisatracurium Besilate for Injection

5232017 CXSS1700005 䡒⟠杅㠣⏟Ẕ㳏㶙 Mecapegfilgrastim

7112017 CYHS1401639 䔏㰆䃞 Desflurane

6202017 CYHS1700055 㳏䔏㛦厒⓸僡 Temozolomide for injection

7112017 CXHS1700013 橓㝌慟⒖㛦Ⱓ Pyrotinib

SBP

1292016 CYHS1401433 ⤯ Budesonide

7212016 CYHS1200320 ∐⤯⓸僡㳏㶙 Linezolid Injection

7212016 CYHS1500266 摭慟ṳ撇㳏㶙 Gadoxetic Acid Disodium injection

7212016 CYHS1500865 慲慟supeⰣ䑅Ⅎ㳏㶙 Ganirelix Injection

1222016 CYHS1600082 橓慟㛦寡䥶柍ṳ慖䈮 Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate Tablets

4272017 CXHS1700002 䚷慟伾㛦Ⱓ僝 Anlotinib Hydrochloride Tablets

612017 CYHS1600193 㳏䔏䚷慟勖徥厒⏟㰧 Dipyridamole Hydrochloride for Injection

942017 CXHS1500135 㳏䔏䥶㲀⌠⎳呈䔙僡 Fosaprepitant dimeglumine injection

CSPC

7212016 CXHS1500143 䚷慟↚⤯徥晭䈮 Dronedarone Hydrochloride Tablets

612017 CYHS1790026 䡒慟㰉㰖㠣曞䈮 Clopidogrel Hydrogen Sulfate Tablets

612017 CYHS1790014 䚷慟ṳ䔙⎳傴䈮 Metformin Hydrochloride Tablets




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

From a timeline perspective 171 and 152 out of the 323 applications wereincluded on the PRL in 2016 and YTD17 respectively 10345 applications addedto the lists so far this year have been for NDAIND respectively vs 10655 in 2016We highlight that the 323 applications represent a total of 171 unique compoundsundergoing NDA and IND collectively out of which 100 were filed by domesticplayers during 2016-2017

We break down 323 applications on PRL by type of approval and 171 drugs bytype of applicant below

Figure 10 Breakdown of applications on PRL byapplication type

Figure 11 Breakdown of compounds on the PRL -domestic vs MNCs

5545

106103

10

4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2016 YTD Nov17

IND NDA Supplementary

63

373734

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2016 YTD Nov17

Domestic MNCs


Taking a closer look anti-infective and oncology are the top representedtherapeutic areas with 42 and 32 unique compounds respectively on the PRLWe break down 171 drugs by major therapeutic area below

Figure 12 Breakdown of applications by major therapeutic area

42

3532

14 13 12 118

4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Application type by TA



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Expect completion of two-invoice implementation in 2H18As of today all 31 provincescities announced plans for two invoices while 16fully implemented the policy across the provincecity 6 are to complete by YE2017and 3 are to complete in 1H18 We expect the policy to temporarily decelerate thesector from 3Q17 to 2Q18 while an inflection point is highly likely by end 2H18In particular we believe the next few quarters would be a good time to examinethe opportunities within the distribution segment

We summarize below the timeline of two-invoice implementation by provinceincluding the date of the recent announcement status of implementation as wellas status start time or further details

Figure 13 Timeline of two-invoice implementation by province

Province city

(EN)

Province city

(CN)

Recent

announcement

Status of

implementation Status date details

Fujian 䥶 10102015 Completed Announced comparable policy on 922009 and started implementing in 2010

Anhui 1082016 Completed 1112016

Qinghai 朹㵞 12122016 Completed 12152016

Chongqing 憴 132017 Completed 612017

Shaanxi 昼奦 342017 Completed 712017

Shanxi ⱘ奦 4282017 Completed 812017

Heilongjiang 溸澀㱆 4252017 Completed 912017

Liaoning 徤 4132017 Completed 912017

Liaoning ⤐㴌 612017 Completed 912017

Sichuan ⷄ 462017 Completed 912017

Jilin 㝾 6212017 Completed 1012017

Hunan 㸽 4112017 Completed 1012017

Hainan 㵞 4282017 Completed 1112017

Hebei 㲚⋾ 5232017 Completed 1112017

Zhejiang 㵀㱆 5262017 Completed 1112017

Inner Mongolia Ⅼ咀 4282017 Completed 1112017

Guangxi 奦 5132017 Ongoing Implemented in 5 cities on 912017 to complete province-wide by 112018

Shanghai 㵞 6302017 Ongoing large distributors implemented on 1012017 to complete city-wide by 112018

Shandong ⱘḃ 9182017 Ongoing To complete on 112018

Jiangsu 㱆劶 6292017 Ongoing To complete on 112018

Hubei 㸽⋾ 692017 Ongoing To complete on 112018

Ningxia 952017 Ongoing To complete on 112018

Beijing ⋾ẓ 10302017 Ongoing To complete on 212018

Guangdong ḃ 7102017 Ongoing To complete on 412018

Henan 㲚 10212017 Ongoing To implement in 6 cities by 112018 to complete province-wide on 712018

Yunnan Ṹ 8142017 Ongoing

Implemented in tier 1 hospitals in 6 cities on 1012017 to implement in all hospitals in 6

cities on 412018 to complete province-wide on 1012018

Jiangxi 㱆奦 9192017 Ongoing Implemented at selected public hospitals on 872017 to complete province-wide in 2018

Gansu 䓿偪 4262017 Ongoing Implemented at tier 1 hospitals on 1012017 to complete province-wide by YE2018

Xinjiang 㖗䕭 5142017 Ongoing To implement in 3 cities by YE2017 to implement province-wide in 2018

Guizhou 崜ⷅ 532017 Ongoing Specific timeline to be decided

Xizang 奦営 10262017 Ongoing Specific timeline to be decided

Source Deutsche Bank govcn


8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Top picksSino Biopharm

Investment thesis rich pipeline to fuel future growthWe expect the growth acceleration in 2018 to be driven by 1) a low base in 2017from the entecavir franchise due to the GDFJ tender exit 2) launch of TDF for HBVindication per the manufacturing approval received on November 29 as well aslikely approval of anlotinib in January 2018 and other key drugs throughout 20183) NRDL impact to be fully reflected in financials as compounds newly includedin the NRDL accounted for 19 of YTD 3Q17 of its revenue

In addition we anticipate the higher growth visibility of nearmid-termEPS supported by the accelerated regulatory approval progress and clinicalprogression of early-stage compounds Moreover SBP is likely to benefit fromthe current wave of sector re-ratings as well as gradual recognition of the qualitypipeline

Figure 14 Revenue growth (2012 ndash 2020E) Figure 15 Core net profit growth (2012 ndash 2020E)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

-

5

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Total revenue (RMBbn) YoY

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Core net income (RMBm) YoY

Source Deutsche Bank estimates Company data Source Deutsche Bank estimates Company data

Key catalysts to watch Expected approvals We expect 4 blockbusters to receive production

approvals including anlotinib lenalidomide apixaban and abirateroneWe highlight that TDF was just approved on November 29 for HBVindication according to management

High frequency data monthly hospital Rx data for Runzhong TianqingGanmei Kaifen Kaishi Latest tender ASP trends for Runzhong andTianding in key provinces

Hepatitis B franchise tender ASP for Runzhong Tianding and Ganzein major provinces sales volume growth of Qingzhong vs other TDFdrugs from competitors cannibalization effects of TDF on ETV productstreatment preferences among HBV doctors For TDF we believe the peaksales opportunity would be a moving target as the companys promotionstrategy depends on the price erosion of entecavir as well as the launchdate and pricing of TAF


8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

HBV franchiseRunzhong growth is expected to show signs of recovery supported by Tiandingas a risk mitigation strategy amid potential price wars in drug tenders Weconducted an in-depth analysis of sales volume growth for Tianding vs non-Tianding entecavir drugs of SBP which suggests that ASP of Tianding was morestable than non-Tianding prices

Also we expect the ramp-up of TDF from peers to be slower than consensusexpectation on the back of high renal toxicity and risks of BMD damages Assuch we believe the cannibalization impacts on its ETV franchise would be lesssignificant than previous estimates In addition SBP emerged as the best inmanaging ASP cuts and revenue deceleration among all competitors based onin-depth analysis of provincial and national tender Rx data

As for TAF (tenofovir alafenamide) we believe the company would put more focuson launching the FTM generic of Vemlidy which has demonstrated a superiorefficacy and safety profile to all existing HBV treatments SBP is the only domesticplayer with IND approval for TAF and started its BE study on November 10 thisyear

We summarize our growth forecast for each compound of its hepatitis B franchiseas below

Figure 16 Projected sales for hepatitis B franchise

2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E

Mingzheng (adefovir dipivoxil) 596 532 436 318 239 184 145 119 101 89

YoY grow th -35 -108 -181 -270 -250 -230 -210 -180 -150 -120

Runzhong (entecavir) 1862 2527 3016 3175 3048 2865 2636 2320 1972 1676

YoY grow th 406 357 194 53 -40 -60 -80 -120 -150 -150

Tianding (entecavir maleate) 39 102 235 438 701 911 1094 1148 1091 1036

YoY grow th 1611 1297 867 600 300 200 50 -50 -50

Tenofovir disoproxil (TDF) 150 475 600 700 750 800

YoY grow th 2167 263 167 71 67

Tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) 200 950 1600 2400

YoY grow th 3750 684 500

Chemical Hepatitis B 2497 3161 3686 3932 4138 4435 4675 5237 5514 6001

YoY grow th 286 266 166 66 52 72 54 120 53 88

Tiangqing Ganmei 1532 1827 1846 1956 2074 2177 2264 2332 2379 2427

YoY grow th 105 193 10 60 60 50 40 30 20 20

Major Hepatitis B 4028 4988 5532 5888 6212 6613 6939 7570 7893 8428

YoY grow th 210 238 109 64 55 65 49 91 43 68

Other Hepatit is drugs 559 608 595 592 621 647 672 692 712 734

YoY grow th 44 89 -22 -05 50 41 38 30 30 30

Total Hepatitis B 4587 5597 6128 6480 6833 7260 7611 8261 8605 9162

YoY grow th 187 220 95 57 55 62 48 85 42 65

Source Deutsche Bank estimates Company data


8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

NPV of HKD213 for late-stage pipelineOur NPV analysis of late-stage pipeline products arrives at HKD213 per sharewith HKD050 from innovative drugs and HKD163 from key generics Wehighlight that TDF was approved for HIV on September 30 and for HBV indicationon November 29

Figure 17 Valuation of late stage pipeline candidates

Drug Indication Launch datePeak sales

(RMBm)

Probability of

success (low

end)

Probability of

success (high

end)

Value per share

(prob adjusted

RMB)

Value per share

(prob adjusted HKD)

Innovative compounds

Anlotinib Oncology 1H18 2400-3200 95 99 036 043

Anlotinib ex-China STS 2022 USD300m 75 85 006 007

Subtotal

Generic drugs

Tenofovir (Viread) Hepatitis B 2H17 2600-3600 100 100 030 035

Bendamustine (Treanda) Oncology 1H18 800-1200 85 95 006 007

SalmeterolFluticasone (Advair) AsthmaCOPD 2H18 2500-3000 55 65 011 013

Apixaban (Eliquis) Cardiovascular 2H18 1200-1800 90 95 008 010

Esomeprazole (Nexium) GERD 2H18 600-800 95 99 004 005

Lenalidomide (Revlimid) Oncology 2H18 850-1300 90 95 009 010

Abiraterone acetate (Zytiga) Oncology 2H18 800-1000 85 95 005 006

Celecoxib capsules (Celebrex) Autoimmune disease 2H18 1000-1500 85 95 007 009

Sorafenib (Nexavar) Oncology 2H18 600-1000 85 95 007 009

Linezolid (Zyvox) Anti-infectives 2H18 750-1000 85 95 006 007

Rivaroxaban (Xarelto) Cardiovascular 1H19 800-1200 85 95 005 006

Budesonide (Pulmicort) Asthma 2H19 3000-4000 80 90 018 022

Cabozantinib (Cometriq) Oncology 2H19 1200-1800 90 95 009 010

Levpantoprazole Sodium (Protonix) Digestive 2H19 1000-1500 90 95 008 010

Faropenem sodium (Farom) Anti-infectives 2H19 500-1000 85 95 005 006

Subtotal

Total

Source Deutsche Bank Company data

Robust innovative pipeline adds another leg for growthBesides anlotinib and many generics at late stage we highlight that SBP ownsa number of innovative drugs in the clinical or pre-clinical stage Notably thecompany focused on hepatitis and oncology TA for the majority of its innovativefranchise TQ-B3455 TQ-B3616 and TQ-B3456 all target solid tumors while TQ-A3326 is likely being developed for HCV We summarize below the major NMEapplications submitted by SBP in YTDNov17

Figure 18 SBP IND applications for innovative compounds in YTD Nov17

Application No Drug Name (EN) Drug Name (CN) Type Class Indication Status Status start time

CXHL1700218 TQB3455 tablet TQB3455䇯 Chemical 11 Oncology IND review 1122017

CXSL1700090 Pertuzumab injection ⶽ⥍䎈⋽㲐㵚 Biological 2 Breast cancer IND review 10162017

CXHL1700214 TQ05105 tablet TQ05105 䇯 Chemical 11 NA IND review 10132017


CXHL1700209 TQB3616 capusle TQB3616 傞 Chemical 11 Oncology IND review 9282017


CXHL1700168 TQB3456 tablet TQB3456 䇯 Chemical 11 Oncology IND review 8162017


CXHL1700150 TQ05510 capsule TQ05510 傞 Chemical 11 Oncology (CDK46) IND review 7252017


CXHL1700049 TQ-A3326 tablet TQ-A3326 䇯 Chemical 11 Hepatitis (HCV) IND review 5102017

Source Deutsche Bank yaozh


8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

In addition 18 innovative drugs as summarized below have started clinical trialssince 2016 according to the company We see a balanced mix of chemicaland biological blockbusters including but not limited to anlotinib rituximabtrastuzumab and bevacizumab We expect SBPs robust innovative pipeline toadd another leg of growth in the years to come

Figure 19 Innovative drugs with ongoing clinical trials in 2016-2017Drug Name (EN) Drug Name (CN) Compound type Class Indication MOA

TQ-B3101 TQ-B3101傞 Chemical 11 Oncology ALK ROS1

TQ-B3139 TQ-B3139傞 Chemical 11 Oncology ALK c-Met inhibitor

Cabozantinib (Cometriq) 务㝄愠rceil㚧傞 Chemical 16 Oncology NA

Pacilitaxel (Taxol) 㲐䓐䳓㛱愯 Chemical 16 Oncology NA

TQ-F3083 TQ-F3083傞 Chemical 11 Diabetes NA

Rituximab (MabThera) uArr⥍㖼⋽㲐㵚 Biological 2 Oncology anti - CD20

Trastuzumab (Herceptin) 㲐䓐㚚⥍䎈⋽ Biological 2 Oncology HER2+ inhibitor

Bevacizumab (Avastin) 峅Ẹ䎈⋽㲐㵚 Biological 2 Oncology VEGF inhibitor

Peginterferon alfa-2a (Pegasys) 倂ḁḴ愯⸚䳈Ƞ-2a Biological 15 Hepatitis Activate two Jak tyrosine kinases (Jak1 and Tyk2)

Adalimumab (Humira) 旧彦㛐⋽㲐㵚 Biological 2 Others TNF-ゎ blocker

Sinotecean 客㚧Ⅳ⸚䰱搰 Chemical 11 Oncology TOPOI inhibitor

TQ-B3234 TQ-B3234傞 Chemical 11 Oncology B-raf TKI (MEK 12)

TQ-B3395 TQ-B3395傞 Chemical 11 Oncology EGFR inhibitor

AL2846 AL2846傞 Chemical 11 Oncology C-MET inhibitor

Indacaterol (Arcapta) 樔㜍愠冺ⶫ㚧傞 Chemical 11 Oncology VEGFR inhibitor

Niclosamide 䠅㞛傢傞䇯 Chemical 11 Others NA

Recombinant Coagulation Factor VIII (Advate) 慵乬Ṣↅ埨⫸ɡⅣ⸚䰱搰 Biological 10 Others NA

Anlotinib 䙸愠⬱仿㚧傞 Chemical 11 Oncology VEGFR2 VEGFR3 PDGFRが and c-Kit inhibitor

Source Source Deutsche Bank Company data

Valuation and risksOur price target of HKD130 is based on 335x 2018E EPS We believe the multipleis justified as peers are trading at 20x 2018E EPS with 15 growth in 2019E (vs20 for SBP) We believe SBP deserves a premium for the superior therapeuticvalue of its existing products and the best pipeline among HK traded names Keyrisks are price cuts slow product ramp-up and regulatory delays


8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Jointown

Investment thesis unique terminal focus well positioned for policy changesUpon implementation of a series of healthcare reform policies we expectJointown to benefit from stronger patient traffic and drug usage at drug storesand a third terminal market defined as community clinicscenters Jointown is theonly non-SOE among the top four distribution leaders in China achieving revenuegrowth acceleration in the past few years amid sector deceleration In particularthe company enjoys strong exposure to lower tier medical institutions with 85of 9M17 revenue from outside of tier 1 hospitals We expect Jointown to deliver2026 CAGR for revenuecore profit during 2017-2020E given its favorablepositioning in the distribution sector amid ongoing reform initiatives

Figure 20 Revenue growth Figure 21 Core net profit growth

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue YoYRMB bn

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Core net profit YoYRMB m


Key catalysts to watch Implementation of two invoices as of today all 31 provincescities

announced plans for two invoices while 16 fully implemented the policyacross the provincecity 6 to complete by YE2017 and 3 to completein 1H18 Jointown is the clear winner as the policy is a zero sumgame that impacts only tier 2 and above hospitals We highlight thatJointown delivered 18 and 22 revenue growth in 3Q17 and 1H17respectively vs 6491 for Sinopharm 96-96 for ShanghaiPharma in the same period As implementation accelerates we expecta more pronounced impact on Jointown

Zero mark-up policy as the policy is fully implemented nationwide weexpect the gradual outflow of prescription drugs into drug stores Wenote that Yifeng indicated that approximately 1 of sales in 1H17 camefrom this as the trend started in 2Q16

Restricted outpatient service at tier 1 hospitals general outpatientservice at tier 1 hospitals will be suspended gradually while onlyspecialty outpatient service will be kept 5 provinces announced plans toimplement the initiative including Beijing Shanghai Guizhou Qinghaiand Guangdong We expect this to further divert patient traffic tocommunity centers


8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Jointown to benefit from growing third terminal marketNational drug sales across all terminal markets reached RMB804bn in 1H17 vsRMB1498bn in 2016 representing 78 YoY growth and 13 CAGR11-16 Inparticular Jointowns strong presence at lower tier medical institutions shouldbenefit from the expanding third terminal market whose market share increasedconsiderably to 94 in 1H17 from 66 in 2011 We summarize national drugsales and a market breakdown from 2011 to 1H17 below

Figure 22 National drug sales in terminal markets Figure 23 National drug sales by terminal

0

10

20

30

0

400

800

1200

1600

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1H16 1H17

Sales (RMBbn) YoY growthRMB m

687 689 688 690 688 684 681

247 237 233 227 225 225 225

66 74 79 83 87 91 94

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1H17

1st terminal public hospitals 2nd terminal retail drug stores

3rd terminal public primary care

Source Deutsche Bank Jointown Source Deutsche Bank Jointown

National drug sales at tiered hospitals are estimated to reach RMB1147bn in2017 representing 56 YoY growth and 123 CAGR11-17E as demonstratedbelow Despite growth deceleration from tiered hospitals first terminal themajority of Jointowns 9MYTD17 revenue came from the second and thirdterminals

Figure 24 National drug sales at tiered hospitals Figure 25 Jointown sales by terminal in 9M YTD17

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E

Urban (RMBbn) Rural (RMBbn)

YoY growth - urban YoY growth - rural tier 1 hospitals

148

all other terminal

markets 852

Source Deutsche Bank estimates CMH Source Deutsche Bank Jointown


8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Comparable analysisWe summarize the current EVEBITDA and PE of the top 4 distributors as well ashistorical multiples of Jointown below based on forward 12m financial metricsBy market cap the weighted average EVEBITDA for the top four distributors is11x and the weighted average PE is 16x We note that Jointown trades at thehigh end among the selected names However A-share pharma names generallytrade higher at 36x PE and 22x EBITDA than 19x16x for H-share names as ofnow We also highlight that Jointown experienced a much greater magnitude ofPE expansion YTD than EVEBITDA expansion

Figure 26 Current EVEBITDA and PE of 4 distributioncompanies FTM

Figure 27 EVEBITDA PE multiples for Jointown FTM

12x 12x

8x

20x

8x

12x

18x

13x

29x

17x

0x

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x

SPH-H SPH-A Sinopharm Jointown CR Pharma

EVEBITDA ftm PE ftm

Weighted Avg

PE 16x

Weighted Avg

EVEBITDA 11x

0x

20x

40x

60x

80x

EVEBITDA ftm PE ftm

Source Bloomberg Finance LP Company data Deutsche Bank Source Bloomberg Finance LP Company data Deutsche Bank

Valuation and risksOur PT of RMB300 is based on 36x 2019E EPS We believe the multiple is justifiedby the companys strong growth profile and improving product mix as its Chinesepeers are trading at 32x 2018E EPS with 19 growth in 2019E (vs the 26 wemodel for Jointown) Key risks include policy headwinds and a slower ramp-upof new businesses


8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Universal Medical

Investment thesis growing hospital management businessUniversal Medical (UM) has continued to transform itself into a major force inhospital management in the form of a PPP (public-private-partnership) modelwhile continuing its leadership in medical equipment leasing Due to the officialnotice from SASAC we expect a wave of new quality hospitals by YE2018likely leading to an intensive period of hospital acquisitions for UM We estimatethe company to deliver CAGRs of 57 and 34 for revenue and net profitrespectively during 2017-20E

Figure 28 Revenue and net profit from hospitalmanagement

Figure 29 Revenue and net profit contributions fromhospital management

327

2009

3802

5016

13 113 212 308

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue Net profitRMB m

9

32

4244

1

7 10

13

0

10

20

30

40

50

2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue Net profit


Key catalysts to watch According to an official notice from SASAC on August 3 all enterprise

hospitals that belong to SOEs will have to be spun off by YE2018It appears most likely that these assets will be sold to SOEs witha healthcare focus Out of 1000 tier 2 or above assets 600 qualityhospitals could be targets for UM UM expects significant acquisitionopportunities here It is likely that more than 10000 could be acquiredin the next few years

Consolidation of the GPO business from Xirsquoan Jiaotong First AffiliatedHospital has been delayed However there is a likelihood that UM mayconsolidate some revenue in 2H17 We forecast net profit contributionto exceed RMB100m in 2018 and to reach RMB150-200m in 2019

On healthcare reforms we expect little impact from two invoices onGPO business that will have GSP We also anticipate minimal impactfrom the zero mark-up policy on the leasing business as UM has goodrelationships with hospitals and their collaboration is multi-year


8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Solid performance in medical leasing businessWe expect the existing medical leasing business to deliver revenuenet profitCAGRs of 2221 during 2017-20E mainly driven by rapid growth in interest-earning assets and a stable net interest margin as well as a declining SGampAexpense ratio from operating leverage

Figure 30 Revenue and net profit of existing business Figure 31 Operating leverage

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue Net profit

Revenue YoY Net profit YoYRMB bn

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Sales expense ratio GampA expense ratio Net margin


Valuation and risksWe base our HKD94 PT on a sum-of-the-parts valuation due to the differentnature of the hospital management and leasing business For leasing we apply12x on 2018E BVPS as the leasing business outperformed in 1H17 For hospitalmanagement we apply 30x on 2018E EPS We believe 30x is justified as its Asianpeers are trading at 27x with 16 growth in 2019 (vs 87 for Universal) Keyrisks include delays in hospital projects asset quality deterioration in the leasingbusiness and interest rate fluctuations


8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

ValuationDB coverage

Figure 32 Key financials for Deutsche Banks coverage universe

6-Dec

Ticker Name Price (LC) High Low Crncy

Pharma 2017E 2018E 2019E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2017E 2018E 2019E

600276SS Hengrui Medicine Buy 781 664 757 377 28302 60 49 38 CNY 22 24 27 48 38 29 25 26 26

2196HK Fosun Pharma Hold 392 381 424 227 14177 40 32 27 CNY (2) 24 20 27 20 17 21 32 18

600196SS Fosun Pharma Hold 335 389 448 225 14189 47 38 31 CNY (2) 24 20 32 24 20 21 32 18

1099HK Sinopharm Group Hold 343 307 380 305 10853 15 14 12 CNY 8 8 10 7 6 5 14 12 10

1093HK CSPC Pharma Buy 191 156 164 80 12478 36 27 23 HKD 32 29 22 23 18 15 31 25 19

2607HK Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Buy 245 198 236 168 9201 16 14 13 CNY (2) 10 11 8 7 6 29 12 9

601607SS Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Hold 213 250 289 191 9209 24 22 20 CNY (2) 10 11 12 10 9 29 12 9

1177HK Sino Biopharmaceutical Buy 130 110 115 53 10433 33 29 25 CNY 23 19 21 17 15 12 17 18 22

600867SS Tonghua Dongbao Buy 268 220 240 166 5685 49 41 32 CNY 28 19 28 32 28 22 23 13 24

600998SS Jointown Pharmaceuticals Buy 300 185 222 184 5260 32 26 20 CNY 16 23 30 13 10 8 26 22 19

0867HK China Medical System Hold 148 161 163 118 5137 19 17 15 CNY 23 16 14 16 14 12 30 10 10

1530HK 3SBio Buy 178 141 159 72 4594 36 29 24 CNY 28 28 20 23 20 17 52 16 12

600079SS Humanwell Healthcare Buy 221 177 212 175 3630 31 26 21 CNY (4) 20 21 16 14 12 20 21 20

0460HK Sihuan Pharmaceutical Hold 30 26 37 20 3103 13 11 10 CNY 6 17 14 7 6 5 3 8 12

0570HK China TCM Hold 47 41 48 34 2302 14 2 10 CNY 15 639 (81) 9 NM 7 17 20 15

3933HK The United Laboratories Hold 63 64 70 43 1332 22 14 10 CNY NA 59 40 7 5 4 20 19 20

ATNXOQ Athenex Buy 200 165 195 110 959 NA NA NA USD 1 23 7 NA NA NA 17 (0) (0)

1349HK Fudan-Zhangjiang Buy 67 43 67 39 504 25 21 14 CNY 10 22 47 17 14 9 11 21 40

37 30 25 13 31 19 25 20 16 24 21 18

Plasma products

002007SZ Hualan Biological Engineering Inc Hold 260 283 373 272 3988 38 32 29 CNY 6 20 11 27 23 20 5 16 11

CBPOOQ China Biologic Products Buy 1300 813 1192 744 2215 17 15 14 USD 14 8 9 14 12 10 (0) 13 12

31 26 23 9 16 10 22 19 17 3 15 11

HC services

IHHHKL IHH Healthcare Bhd Buy 70 56 64 56 11436 57 39 31 MYR (6) 46 26 22 17 15 0 26 17

300015SZ Aier Eye Hospital Buy 316 277 299 197 6372 55 41 32 CNY 37 33 30 30 22 17 42 38 24

1515HK Phoenix Healthcare Group Buy 145 96 117 92 1591 25 19 16 CNY (0) 33 19 14 10 9 75 35 17

2666HK Universal Medical Buy 94 72 82 61 1586 9 7 5 CNY 34 31 27 20 18 16 34 32 28

600763SS Topchoice Medical Hold 272 293 343 226 1421 61 51 40 CNY 21 20 25 34 28 23 25 21 23

51 36 29 11 39 27 24 19 16 21 30 20

Devicesconsumables - AxJ

1066HK Shandong Weigao Buy 77 53 65 45 3024 14 13 11 CNY 13 13 13 9 8 7 26 14 13

3600HK Modern Dental Group Buy 40 21 36 21 271 12 10 8 HKD 30 27 22 8 6 5 29 29 20

14 12 11 14 14 14 9 8 7 26 15 14

Devicesconsumables - Japan

4543T Terumo Hold 4700 5270 5400 3855 17755 37 32 27 JPY 5 17 15 17 15 9 0 10 9

6869T Sysmex Buy 9800 8380 8640 6100 15517 42 37 33 JPY 3 14 14 23 21 9 13 10 11

7733T Olympus Hold 4600 4285 4610 3660 13027 26 24 23 JPY 39 7 5 11 10 11 12 6 4

36 31 28 14 13 12 17 16 10 8 9 9

Rating Target

Price (LC)

52-week Mkt cap

(US$mn) PE EVEBITDAEPS Growth EBITDA Growth

Source Deutsche Bank estimates Bloomberg Finance LP


8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Sector performanceH-share names trading at low end of historical averagerange

China healthcare stocks listed in Hong Kong are trading at an 189x 12-monthforward PE multiple above their three-year average of 177x and four-year averageof 182x As for A-share healthcare companies they are trading at 253x 12-monthforward PE below the average of 261x for the past three years and in line withthe 249x average for the past four years

Figure 33 Four-year average PE (based on 12m forwardconsensus PE of MSCI China HC Index ndash H share)

Figure 34 Three-year average PE (based on 12mforward consensus PE of MSCI China HC Index ndash Hshare)

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23 12m forward PE Average -1 SD +1 SD

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21


Source Deutsche Bank Bloomberg Finance LP Source Deutsche Bank Bloomberg Finance LP

Figure 35 Four-year average PE (based on 12m forwardconsensus PE of MSCI China HC Index ndash A share)

Figure 36 Three-year average PE (based on 12mforward consensus PE of MSCI China HC Index ndash Ashare)

10

15

20

25

30

35


16

19

22

25

28

31

34

37




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

MSCI China HC outperformed HSI

The MSCI H China Healthcare index generated a stellar return of 40 inYTD17 outperforming the 31 from the Hang Seng Index (HSI) The sector hasseen growth acceleration amid healthcare reforms reimbursement revisions andaccelerated regulatory approvals 3SBio and SBP are clearly the top performersthis year delivering returns of 98 97 in YTD17 compared with -31-23 in2016 CSPC also performed well with a return of 89 in YTD17 vs 5 in 2016

Figure 37 YTD2017 performance for HK-listed HCnames

Figure 38 2016 performance for HK-listed HC names

-33

-25

-19

-18

-6

-4

3

11

12

13

16

17

22

30

39

63

82

89

97

98

31

40

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

SHANGHAI FUDAN-H

TONG REN TANG-H

CHINA SHINEWAY

CHINA PIONEER PH

DAWNRAYS PHARMAC

SINOPHARM-H

LEES PHARM

SHANGHAI PHARM-H

Universal Medical

GUANGZHOU BAIYUN

CHINA TRADITIONA

THE UNITED LABOR

SIHUAN PHARM

CHINA MEDICAL SY

BLOOMAGE BIOTE

SHANGHAI FOSUN-H

CONSUN PHARMACEU

CSPC PHARMACEUTI

SINO BIOPHARM

3SBIO INC

HSI

MSCI China HC

-51

-39

-35

-31

-24

-23

-23

-22

-11

-9

0

3

5

6

6

7

8

13

23

24

0

-6

-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30

SIHUAN PHARM

BLOOMAGE BIOTE

LEES PHARM

CHINA TRADITIONA

CONSUN PHARMACEU

SINO BIOPHARM

DAWNRAYS PHARMAC

SHANGHAI FUDAN-H

CHINA SHINEWAY

GUANGZHOU BAIYUN

CHINA PIONEER PH

SINOPHARM-H

CSPC PHARMACEUTI

SHANGHAI FOSUN-H

SHANGHAI PHARM-H

Universal Medical

CHINA MEDICAL SY

TONG REN TANG-H

THE UNITED LABOR

LIJUN INTL PHARM

HSI

MSCI China HC


A-share HC stocks outperformed CSI 300

The MSCI A-share HC Index delivered a return of 18 in YTD17 slightly below thereturn from CSI 300 Notably domestic innovative bellwether Hengrui achieveda return of 78 while Fosun achieved a 71 return in YTD17 vs 11 and -1respectively in 2016

Figure 39 YTD2017 performance for A-share HC names Figure 40 2016 performance for A-share HC names

-32

-22

-20

-18

-13

-12

-11

-11

-11

-9

-9

3

3

8

19

21

24

31

40

42

51

71

78

21

18

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

HARBIN PHARMA-A

HUALAN BIOLOGI-A

NANJING PHARMA-A

NORTH CHINA PH-A

TOPCHOICE MEDI-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

TASLY PHARMAC-A

JOINTOWN PHARM-A

HUMANWELL HEAL-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

YUNNAN BAIYAO-A

CHINA RESOURCE-A

BEIJING TONGRE-A

ZHEJIANG HISUN-A

KANGMEI PHARMA-A

TONGHUA DONGBA-A

SHANGHAI PHARM-A

CHINA MEHECO C-A

HUADONG MEDICI-A

AIER EYE HSPTL-A

SICHUAN KELUN-A

SHANGHAI FOSUN-A

JIANGSU HENGRU-A

CSI300

MSCI A China HC

-32

-30

-27

-24

-21

-17

-13

-12

-10

-9

-7

-5

-3

-2

-1

1

1

5

5

6

11

14

30

-11

-16

-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

TOPCHOICE MEDI-A

BEIJING TONGRE-A

NORTH CHINA PH-A

NANJING PHARMA-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

ZHEJIANG HISUN-A

SICHUAN KELUN-A

HUADONG MEDICI-A

HUMANWELL HEAL-A

CHINA RESOURCE-A

HARBIN PHARMA-A

AIER EYE HSPTL-A

TONGHUA DONGBA-A

SHANGHAI PHARM-A

SHANGHAI FOSUN-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

TASLY PHARMAC-A

YUNNAN BAIYAO-A

KANGMEI PHARMA-A

JOINTOWN PHARM-A

JIANGSU HENGRU-A

CHINA MEHECO C-A

HUALAN BIOLOGI-A

CSI300

MSCI A China HC



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

US-listed China HC stocks outperformed SPY 500

The US-listed China HC names generally outperformed the SampP 500 and USHealthcare benchmark index The newly listed companies including HCM ATNXand ZLAB all achieved solid returns up 155 5544 respectively in YTD17As an exception CBPO recorded a -25 return in YTD17 vs -25 in 2016

Figure 41 YTD 2017 performance for US-listed China HC names

-25

44

55

155

167

18

30

64

-05 0 05 1 15 2

CHINA BIOLOGIC

ZLAB

ATHENEX

HCM

BEIGENE

SampP 500 Index

NASDAQ Index

MSCI US HC

Source Deutsche Bank Bloomberg Finance LP


8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Healthcare names outperformed regional index in 2017

In 2017 global medtech names delivered higher returns vs their regional equitybenchmarks We summarize the performance in the following exhibits

Figure 42 Major medtech indicesrsquo 2017 performance Figure 43 Major medtech indicesrsquo 2016 performance

0

7

31

15

18

28

18

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

MSCI Europe HC Equipment

STOXX Europe

HSI

MSCI Japan HC Equipment

TOPIX

SampP 500 HC Equipment

SampP 500

MSCI China HC

-4

-1

0

-6

-2

5

10

-6

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12


STOXX Europe

HSI


TOPIX


SampP 500

MSCI China HC


For pharmaceuticals most indices outperformed their regional indices in 2017We summarize the performance data in the following charts

Figure 44 Major pharma indicesrsquo 2017 performance Figure 45 Major pharma indicesrsquo 2016 performance

5

7

31

9

18

9

18

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

MSCI Europe Pharma

STOXX Europe

HSI

TOPIX Pharma

TOPIX

SampP 500 Pharma

SampP 500

MSCI China HC

-12

-1

0

-11

-2

-4

10

-6

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

MSCI Europe Pharma

STOXX Europe

HSI

TOPIX Pharma

TOPIX

SampP 500 Pharma

SampP 500

MSCI China HC


The healthcare sectorrsquos contribution in the MSCI China Index has increasedsignificantly in recent years reaching 21 by Dec 2017 vs 09 in 1Q13

Figure 46 China healthcare sectors contribution to MSCI China Index (in )1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013 1Q2014 2Q2014 3Q2014 4Q2014 1Q2015 2Q2015 3Q2015 4Q2015 1Q2016 2Q2016 3Q2016 4Q2016 1Q2017 2Q2017 3Q2017 4Q2017

Healthcare Sector Contribution 09 14 12 15 18 18 22 22 21 21 23 22 21 20 21 20 21 21 20 21

1099HK Sinopharm 04 04 03 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 05 05 06 06 05 05 05 04 04 03

1093HK CSPC 02 02 03 03 03 04 05 05 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 06

1177HK Sino Biopharm 03 03 03 04 03 04 03 03 03 05 04 04 03 03 03 03 03 03 04

0867HK China Medical System 02 02 01 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 01 02

2607HK Shanghai Pharma 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 01 01

0241HK Ali Health 02 02 01 01 01 01

1066HK Weigao 02 03 02 03 03 03 02 02 02 01 02 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01

1530HK 3SBio 01 01 01 01 01 01 01

2196HK Fosun Pharma 02 02 02 01 01 02 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 02

2186HK Luye Pharma 01 02 02 01 01

0460HK Sihuan 01 02 02 03 03 03 04 03 03 02 01 01 01



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Pipeline updatesSino Biopharm

We highlight that SBP owns a rich pipeline where 10 drugs are under regulatoryreview 6 have completed BE studies and 23 have ongoing BE studies In addition832 drugs are conducting P1P2P3 studies respectively We highlight that over100 drugs also completed review for clinical trial application though it is unclearfrom available information how many were approved We list all drugs in SBPspipeline by regulatory status in the following exhibits

Figure 47 Pipeline of SBP

Application

registration no

Drug name (EN) Drug name (CN) Brand name Indication Status Status start

time

Key competitors

CYHS1790016 Lenalidomide capsules Revlimid Oncology Under regulatory review 362014 Shuanglu

CYHS1790034 Gefitinib Tablets Iressa Oncology Under regulatory review 9212015 Qilu Pharma

CXHS1300331 Bortezomib Oncology Under regulatory review 1222017

CXHS1500136 Fosaprepitant dimeglumine injection ሴ⋉३ඖৼ㪑㜪 NA CINV Under regulatory review 332017 Shuanglu Lummy

CXHS1700004 Anlotinib hydrochloride capsules Oncology Under regulatory review 3162017


injection

Treanda Oncology Under regulatory review 5152017

CYHS1600206 Azacitidine injection ሴ䱯㜎㤧 Vidaza MDS Under regulatory review 5182017 Qilu Pharma

CYHS1700131 Apixaban tablets Eliquis CVD Under regulatory review 692017

CYHS1700138 Ambrisentan tablets ᆹඖ Volibris CVD Under regulatory review 7142017 NA

CYHS1700293 Abiraterone acetate tablets Zytiga Oncology Under regulatory review 1092017

CXHS1500138 Levpantoprazole sodium for injection ሴᐖᢈ䫐 NA GI Withdrawn 9222015 NA

CTR20170575 Tofacitinib citrate tablets euro䞨ᢈᴯᐳ Xeljanz Rheumatoid arthritis BE study completed 6142017 NA

CTR20170555 Roflumilast tablet Daxas COPD BE study completed 5312017

CTR20170098 Lurasidone hydrochloride tablets ⴀ䞨励㾯䞞 Latuda Schizophrenia BE study completed 262017 NA

CTR20170160 Tadalafil tablets Ԇ䗮䶎 Cialis ED BE study completed 3212017 NA

CTR20170474 Posaconazole capsules ⋺⋉ᓧ㜦 Noxafil Anti-infection BE study completed 592017 NA

CTR20170483 Dexlansoprazole sustained-release

capsules

ਣޠ㕃䟺㜦 Dexilant GI BE study completed 5272017 Youcare Pharma

(injection)

CTR20130325 Octanediamide capsules Կ䈪Ԇ㜦 NA Oncology Phase 2 completed 10202015 NA

CXHL1300990 Esomeprazole enteric-coated capsules Naxium BE study ongoing 3252016 Lummy

CTR20160730 Sorafenib tosylate tablets 㤟䞨䶎ቬ Nexavar Oncology BE study ongoing 10172016 NA

CTR20160787 Salmeterol fluticasone powder for

inhalation (50μg250μAdvair COPD BE study ongoing 10182016

CTR20160981 Erlotinib hydrochloride tablets ⴀ䞨ᴯቬ Tarceva Oncology BE study ongoing 1292016 NA

CTR20170019 Axitinib tablets 䱯᱄ᴯቬ Inlyta Oncology BE study ongoing 1112017 NA

CTR20170003 Montelukast sodium granules ᆏ励ਨ䫐仇 Singulair Asthma BE study ongoing 262017 NA

CTR20170185 Ticagrelor tablets Brilinta CVD BE study ongoing 3272017

CTR20170451 Lapatinib ditosylate tablets 㤟䞨ᑅᴯቬ Tykerb Oncology BE study ongoing 522017 NA

CTR20170480 Rivaroxaban tablets Xarelto CVD BE study ongoing 5162017

CTR20170585 Sitagliptin Phosphate Tablets 䞨㾯Ṭࡇ≰ Januvia Diabetes BE study ongoing 692017 NA

CTR20170557 Emtricitabine and tenofovir tablets Truvada HIV BE study ongoing 6142017

CTR20170574 Linezolid tablets Zyvox Pneumonia BE study ongoing 6142017 Hansoh (injection)

CTR20170733 Sunitinib malate capsules 㤩䞨㡂ቬᴯቬ㜦 Sutent Oncology BE study ongoing 7182017 NA

CTR20170740 Degarelix acetate injection ሴ䞻䞨ൠݻ⪎ Firmagon Oncology BE study ongoing 8202017 NA

CTR20170938 Dabigatran mesilate capsule Pradaxa CVD BE study ongoing 8202017

CTR20170933 Obeticholic tablets 䍍㛶䞨 Ocaliva Hepatopathy BE study ongoing 8282017 NA

CTR20170937 Sofosbuvir tablets 䶎ᐳ世 Sovaldi HCV BE study ongoing 9112017 NA

CTR20171080 Trifluridine piracetam tablets ᴢ≏ቯ㤧ᴯ㾯 NA Oncology BE study ongoing 9132017 NA

ChiCTR-IIR-

17012724

Everolimus tablets 㔤㧛ਨ Zortress Oncology BE study ongoing 9192017 NA

CTR20171167 Malic acid cabozantinib capsule Cometriq Oncology BE study ongoing 9252017

CTR20171160 Afatinib dimaleate tablets 傜ᶕ䞨䱯ᴯቬ Gilotrif Oncology BE study ongoing 9292017 NA

CTR20171166 Budesonide suspension for inhalation Plulmicort Asthma BE study ongoing 10132017 SPH Lunan Pharma

CTR20171197 Clopidogrel bisulfate tablets Plavix CVD BE study ongoing 10142017 Salubris Lepu

Pharma

CTR20171309 Tenofovir Alafenamide Fumarate

tablets

Vemlidy HBV BE study ongoing 11102017

CTR20160923 Pixantrone maleate for injection ሴ傜ᶕ䞨३ᵹ⩬ NA Oncology Phase 3 ongoing 262017 NA

CTR20170854 Doripenem for injection ሴཊቬษই Doribax URI Phase 3 ongoing 822017 NA

CTR20150290 Methylnaltrexone bromide injection 㓣ᴢ䞞ሴ NA Astriction Phase 2 ongoing 762015 NA

CTR20170855 Sodium magnesium chewable tablets (I) 㖾䫐䭱ર೬(ĉ) NA GI Phase 2 ongoing 812017 NA

CTR20170849 Sodium magnesium chewable tablets (II) 㖾䫐䭱ર೬(Ċ) NA GI Phase 2 ongoing 8172017 NA

Source Deutsche Bank yaozh CFDA


8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Figure 48 Pipeline of SBP - continued

Application

registration no


time

Key competitors

CTR20131920 Aamphotericin B phosphatidyl glycerol

complex liposome for injection

ሴєᙗ䴹B㜲䞠⭈

⋩༽ਸ㜲䍘փ

NA Anti-infection Phase 1 ongoing 8312015 NA

CTR20130358 Sinotecean ௌ䈪ᴯᓧ NA Oncology Phase 1 ongoing 1132015 NA

CTR20130334 Maleic acid sunitinib capsules 傜ᶕ䞨㡂ᐳᴯቬ㜦 NA Oncology Phase 1 ongoing 1192015 NA

CTR20160982 TQ-B3395 capsules TQ-B3395㜦 NA Oncology Phase 1 ongoing 1282016 NA




ChiCTR-IIR- Paclitaxel For Injection (albumin bound) ˄

˅

Abraxane Oncology Phase 1 ongoing 9192017

CXHL0500312 Amantadine sulfate sodium chloride

injection

䞨䠁ࡊ㜪≟䫐ሴ

NA Antivirus Received clinical trial notice 1082005 NA

CYHS0501741 Hydroxyethyl starch 13004 and sodium

chloride injection

㗏҉ส㊹13004≟䫐

ሴ

NA Fluid therapy Received clinical trial notice 6282006 NA

CXHL0600719 Ambroxol hydrochloride dropping pills ⴀ䞨≘Ѩ NA COPD Received clinical trial notice 822007 NA

CXZL0500131 Chigan Maitong capsules 䎔㤧㜹䙊㜦 NA CVD Received clinical trial notice 2282008 NA

CXHL0600728 Asarone drop pills 㓶䗋㝁Ѩ NA COPD Received clinical trial notice 6202008 NA

CXHL0700458 Polyethylene glycol defibrase for injection ሴ㚊҉Ҽ䞷䱽㓔䞦 NA CVD Received clinical trial notice 782008 NA

CXHL0700457 Peg defibrase 㚊҉Ҽ䞷䱽㓔䞦 NA CVD Received clinical trial notice 782008 NA

CXHL0502353 Faropenem sodium for injection ሴ㖇ษই䫐 NA Anti-infection Received clinical trial notice 8192008 NA

CYZS0700043 Guci Xiaotong capsules 僘ࡪⰋ㜦 NA Rheumatism Received clinical trial notice 9272008 43 companies including

Topfond

CXHL0700048 Clofarabine injection ≟ሴ Clolar Leukemia Received clinical trial notice 10212008 NA

CXZL0500645 Xingnao Jingru injection 䟂㝁䶉ңሴ NA CVD Received clinical trial notice 11182008 NA

CYZS0700129 Buxue Tiaojing tablets 㺕㹰䈳㓿 NA Anaemia Received clinical trial notice 11282008 4 companies including

Baiyunshan

CYZS0700466 Hemorrhoid hemostatic pills Ⰴrarr㹰Ѩ NA Hemorrhoids Received clinical trial notice 1292008 Changyuan Pharma

CYHS0600695 Thymopentin for injection ሴ㜨㞪ӄ㛭 NA Oncology Received clinical trial notice 2122009 62 companies including

Zhonghe Pharma

CYHS0701084 Simvastatin tablets 䗋ՀԆ≰ Zocor CVD Received clinical trial notice 392009 100+ companies

including Haisun

CYZS0700464 Tiaojing Cuyun pills 䈳㓿ᆅѨ NA Reproduction Received clinical trial notice 4162009 5 companies including

Tongrentang

CYZS0503945 Suxiao Xintong dropping pills 䙏ᗳⰋѨ NA CVD Received clinical trial notice 4272009 NA

CYZS0700463 Xuefusheng tablets 㹰༽ NA Anaemia Received clinical trial notice 632009 8 companies including

Baiyunshan

CYHS0506585 Ademetionine for injection ሴ㞪㤧㳻≘䞨 Transmetil Cirrhosis Received clinical trial notice 732009 Haisun Pharma

Zhengyuan Pharma

CXHL0900223 Pirfenidone 䶎ቬ䞞 NA IPF Received clinical trial notice 8162010 NA

CXHL0800002 Hydroxyethyl starch 13004 sodium

acetate ringers Injection

㗏҉ส㊹13004䞻䞨䫐

Ṭሴ


CXHL1000266 Tenofovir dipivoxil fumarate tablets ᇼ傜䞨ᴯ䈪世ৼᠺ䞟

NA HBV Received clinical trial notice 632011 NA

CYHS1000223 Rocuronium bromide injection 㖇ᓃ䬥ሴ NA Anaesthesia Received clinical trial notice 12272011 NA

CXHL0900534 Amlodipine Olmesartan Medoxomil

Tablets (II)

≘≟ൠᒣ㖾⋉ඖ䞟(Ċ) NA CVD Received clinical trial notice 1162012 NA


Tablets (I)

≘≟ൠᒣ㖾⋉ඖ䞟(ĉ) NA CVD Received clinical trial notice 1302012 NA

CXZL1000097 Asitiping tablets 䱯ᯟᴯᒣ NA Rheumatoid arthritis Received clinical trial notice 6182012 NA

CXHL1200352 Tenofovir carnitine tablets ᴯ䈪世ቬ≰ NA HBV Received clinical trial notice 4112013 NA

CXHL1000203 Hydrobromide prasugrel acetate

compound tablets

≒䞨ᲞṬ䴧䞻䞨ਸ

NA CVD Received clinical trial notice 11152013 NA

CXZL1200044 Shuanghuang Shenkang tablets ৼ哴㛮ᓧ NA Nephroma Received clinical trial notice 11202013 NA

CXHL0900100 Docetaxel (nanoparticles) for injection ሴཊ㾯Ԇ䎋(㓣) NA Oncology Received clinical trial notice 12202013 4 companies including

Hengrui

CXHL1200130 Simvastatin nicotinic acid sustained

release tablets (I)

䗋ՀԆ≰䞨㕃䟺(ĉ) NA CVD Received clinical trial notice 4152014 NA


release tablets (II)

䗋ՀԆ≰䞨㕃䟺(Ċ) NA CVD Received clinical trial notice 4152014 NA

CXZL1300062 Xiaoaiping Zonggan tablets ⱼᒣᙫ㤧 NA Oncology Received clinical trial notice 10152014 NA

CXZL1300061 Marsdenia tenacissima 䙊ޣ㰔ᙫ㤧 NA Asthma Received clinical trial notice 10152014 NA



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors

CXHL1200251 Alogliptin benzoate tablets 㤟䞨䱯Ṭࡇ≰ Nesina Diabetes Received clinical trial notice 712015 NA

CXHL1100233 Aprepitant capsules 䱯⪎३ඖ㜦 Emend Antiemetic Received clinical trial notice 712015 NA

CXSL1300083 Insulin detemir Injection ൠ㜠ዋሴ Levemir Diabetes Received clinical trial notice 7132015 NA

CXHL1200911 Cinacalcet hydrochloride tablets ⴀ䞨㾯䛓ຎ Sensipar CKD Received clinical trial notice 10202015 NA

CXSL1400063 Factor VIII ሴ䟽㓴Ӫࠍ㹰ഐᆀĐ NA Hemophilia Received clinical trial notice 10292015 NA

CYHS1301324 Cefdinir dispersible tablets ཤᆒൠቬᮓ Omnicef Anti-infection Received clinical trial notice 10292015 15 companies including

Tianjin Pharma

CXHL1200740 Inhalation solution of arformoterol tartrate 䞂⸣䞨䱯㖇䴮੨ޕ

Brovana COPD Received clinical trial notice 11252015 NA

CXHL1301165 Fluconazole injection ਨ≏ᓧሴ NA Anti-infection Received clinical trial notice 12152015 NA

CXHL1300662 Finasteride capsules ᓖԆ䳴㜪㜦 NA BPH Received clinical trial notice 12242015 NA

CYHS1300296 Valsartan capsules 㕜⋉ඖ㜦 Diovan CVD Received clinical trial notice 12242015 17 companies including

Livzon

CYHS1300297 Venlafaxine hydrochloride sustained-

release capsules

ⴀ䞨᮷䗋㕃䟺㜦 Efexor XR MDD Received clinical trial notice 12242015 Wansheng Pharma

CXHL1300305 Miriplatin hydrate for injection ሴ䫲 Miripla Oncology Received clinical trial notice 12302015 NA

CXHL1300834 Azilsartan tablets 䱯喀⋉ඖ Azilva CVD Received clinical trial notice 1132016 NA

CXHL0900294 Moxifloxacin hydrochloride Glucose

Injection

ⴀ䞨㧛㾯⋉ᱏ㪑㨴ሴ

Avelox Anti-infection Received clinical trial notice 1212016 Yoko Bio Tiantaishan

Pharma (injection)

CXHL1300820 Weimodibu tablets 㔤㧛ൠᐳ㜦 NA Oncology Received clinical trial notice 1212016 NA

CYHS1301547 Atorvastatin tablets 䱯ᢈՀԆ≰䫉 Lipitor CVD Received clinical trial notice 1212016 Jarlin Neo-Dankong

Baike Pharma

CXHL1301150 Temsirolimus for injection ሴඖ㖇㧛ਨ Torisel Oncology Received clinical trial notice 1282016 NA

CYHS1301545 Trimetazidine dihydrochloride modified

release tablets

ⴀ䞨ᴢ㖾Ԇచ㕃䟺 Vasorel CVD Received clinical trial notice 1282016 12 companies

CYHS1400579 Saxagliptin tablets ⋉Ṭࡇ≰ Onglyza Diabetes Received clinical trial notice 1282016 NA

CYHS1301563 Solifenacin succinate tablets ⩕⧰䞨䛓ᯠ Vesicare Urinary incontinence Received clinical trial notice 232016 NA

CYHS1400790 Flupirtine maleate capsules 傜ᶕ䞨≏≰㜦 Katadolon Analgesics Received clinical trial notice 232016 Easton

CXHL1200742 Romidepsin for injection ሴ㖇ൠ䗋 Istodax Oncology Received clinical trial notice 242016 NA

CXHL1400569 Canagliflozin tablets Ṭࡇ Invokana Diabetes Received clinical trial notice 2292016 NA

CXHL1400330 Pralatrexate injection Პᴢ⋉ሴ NA Oncology Received clinical trial notice 2292016 NA

CYHS1401802 Crizotinib capsules ᴯቬ㜦ݻ Xalkori Oncology Received clinical trial notice 2292016 NA

CXHL1400315 Cabazitaxel injection ᐤԆ䎋ሴ Jevtana Oncology Received clinical trial notice 312016 NA

CXHL1400187 Bazedoxifene acetate tablets 䞻䞨ᐤཊ᱄㣜 NA CVD Received clinical trial notice 3102016 NA

CYHS1100759 Letrozole tablets ᶕᴢ Letrozole Oncology Received clinical trial notice 3102016 Hengrui Haisun

CYHS1401699 Prucalopride succinate tablets ⩕⧰䞨Პ㣖ᗵ Resolor Astriction Received clinical trial notice 3102016 NA

CXHL1401309 Bosutinib tablets ঊ㡂ᴯቬ NA Oncology Received clinical trial notice 3242016 NA

CXHL1401435 Saxagliptin and metformin hydrochloride

sustained release tablets (II)

⋉Ṭࡇ≰Ҽৼ㛽㕃䟺

(Ċ)

NA Diabetes Received clinical trial notice 3242016 NA


sustained release tablets (I)


(I)


CXHL1401358 Regorafenib tablets ⪎ᠸ䶎ቬ Stivarga Oncology Received clinical trial notice 3242016 NA

CXHL1401573 Pazopanib hydrochloride tablets ⴀ䞨ᑅᑅቬ Votrient Oncology Received clinical trial notice 3242016 NA

CXHL0700123 Magnesium isoglycyrrhizinate enteric-

coated capsuless

ᔲ⭈㥹䞨䭱㛐㜦 NA Chronic viral hepatitis Received clinical trial notice 4152016 NA

CXHL1401968 Lubiprostone capsules 励∄ࡇ䞞㜦 Amitiza Astriction Received clinical trial notice 4152016 NA

CXHL1401433 Glipizide metformin sustained release

tablets

㾯Ṭࡇ≰Ҽৼ㛽㕃䟺 NA Diabetes Received clinical trial notice 542016 NA

CYHS1401824 Indacaterol maleate powder for inhalation 傜ᶕ䞨㥊䗮㖇੨ޕ㊹䴮

Onbrez

Breezhaler

COPD Received clinical trial notice 542016 NA

CYHS1500236 Mycophenolate sodium enteric-coated

tablets

哖㘳䞊䫐㛐 Myfortic Inhibition of rejection

reaction

Received clinical trial notice 5122016 NA

CXHL1500118 Levpantoprazole sodium enteric-coated

capsules

ᐖᢈ䫐㛐㜦 Protonix GI Received clinical trial notice 5192016 NA

CXHL1500218 Enzalutamide capsules ᚙᵲ励㜪㜦 Xtandi Oncology Received clinical trial notice 5192016 NA



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors

CXHL1401992 Empagliflozin tablets 發頻祭閤 Jardiance Diabetes Received clinical trial notice 5192016 NA

CXHL1500260 Anidulafungin for injection B屶49癅巛懟閤 Eraxis Anti-infection Received clinical trial notice 5192016 NA

CYHS1500557 Linagliptin tablets 咲頻祭 Trajenta Diabetes Received clinical trial notice 5312016 NA

CXHL1500216 Dalbavancin hydrochloride for injection B屶49ウ155660毚杼У駢 Dalvance Anti-infection Received clinical trial notice 682016 NA

CXSL1300049 Peginterferon alfa-2a solution for injection 導暗因綶槧舩Icircα-2aB屶

ゃ

Pegasys HBV Received clinical trial notice 7142016 Amoytop Bio

CXHL1401281 Posaconazole injection $times殀逮B屶ゃ Noxafil Anti-infection Received clinical trial notice 812016 NA

CXHL1501479 CarfilzoMib for injection B屶49奨蹍晦 Kyprolis Oncology Received clinical trial notice 812016 NA

CXHL1501096 Ethanesulfonic acid nidanibu capsule 暗〚155660巛毚巛柞娜把 Ofev IPF Received clinical trial notice 842016 NA

CXHL1500778 Amrubicin hydrochloride for injection B屶49ウ155660h甑魲駢 Calsed Oncology Received clinical trial notice 842016 NA

CXHL1501475 Ibrutinib capsules 穏柞龕巛娜把 Imbruvica Oncology Received clinical trial notice 8122016 NA

CXHL1501088 Polysaccharide superparamagnetic iron

oxide injection

沃導pound卧晧g充刨B屶

ゃ

NA Anemia Received clinical trial notice 8122016 NA

CXHL1500263 Telavancin hydrochloride for injection B屶49ウ155660ゐ萸У駢 Vibativ Anti-infection Received clinical trial notice 8122016 NA

CXHL1501905 Apremilast tablets 癅鯢霪ゐ Otezla Psoriasis Received clinical trial notice 8232016 NA

CXSL1500056 Rituxan injection 咲朗駘鋤苜B屶ゃ Mabthera Oncology Received clinical trial notice 942016 NA

CXHL1501606 Ledipasvir sofosbuvir tablets 薅涫桙餑ETH_柞餑 Harvoni HCV Received clinical trial notice 9112016 NA

CXSL1400013 Trastuzumab for injection B屶49齒朗2鋤苜 Herceptin Oncology Received clinical trial notice 9262016 NA

CXSL1400137 Bevacizumab Injection 鸇伽2鋤苜B屶ゃ Avastin Oncology Received clinical trial notice 9262016 NA

CYHS1201502 Bicalutamide tablets 魲奨儧尔 Casodex Oncology Received clinical trial notice 9262016 Zhaohui Pharma

Haisun Forward

CYHS1300729 Exemestane tablets 鰹≢雇匹 Aromasin Oncology Received clinical trial notice 9262016 5 companies including

Qilu

CYHS1400621 Tegafur gimeracil oteracil porassium

capsules

龕嵩陵娜把 Teysuno Oncology Received clinical trial notice 9262016 Lunan Pharma Qilu

Hengrui

CYHS1201075 Polyene phosphatidyl choline capsules 沃L」拌紒勇バレル娜把 Essentiale Hepatopathy Received clinical trial notice 9282016 Tiantaishan Pharma

(injection)

CXHL1501620 Phosphoric tedizolid for injection B屶49」155660ゐ般逮尔 Sivextro Anti-infection Received clinical trial notice 10112016 NA

CXHL1501621 Phosphoric tedizolid tablets 」155660ゐ般逮尔 Sivextro Anti-infection Received clinical trial notice 10112016 NA

CYHS1401419 Montelukast sodium chewable tablets 埔儧垂ゐ侷閃廼 Singulair Asthma Received clinical trial notice 10112016 NA

CYHS1100201 Pemetrexed disodium for injection B屶49勉雇齒摩因侷 Alimta Oncology Received clinical trial notice 10182016 Kaimao Bio

CYHS1300251 Moxifloxacin hydrochloride tablets ウ155660琛≢times駢 Avelox Anti-infection Received clinical trial notice 10182016 NA

CYHS1500329 Anastrozole Tablets 癅畲齒逮 Arimidex Oncology Received clinical trial notice 10242016 4 companies including

Huapont

CXHL1500774 Ibandronate tablets 穏08132625155660侷 Boniva Osteoporosis Received clinical trial notice 10272016 NA

CXHL1501918 Olaparib capsules 陵萸桙巛娜把 Lynparza Oncology Received clinical trial notice 10272016 NA

CXHL1402182 Budesonide formoterol powder for

inhalation (capsule)

柞般琉牀琛ゐ機9青午

擦(娜把鰭)

Symbicort Asthma Received clinical trial notice 10272016 NA

CXHL1501965 Ceritinib capsules 帒t龕巛娜把 Zykadia Oncology Received clinical trial notice 10272016 NA

CYHS1501265 Aripiprazole tablets 癅わ霜逮 Abilify Schizophrenia Received clinical trial notice 10272016 4 companies including

Kanghong Pharma

CXHL1600104 TQ-F3083 capsules TQ-F3083娜把 Diabetes Oncology Received clinical trial notice 1282016 NA

CXHL1501086 Indacaterol and glycopyrrolate inhalation

powder spray

橖毚ゐ機頻箰唪青午9

蜮擦

Utibron Neohaler COPD Received clinical trial notice 12222016 NA

CXSL1500037 Adalimumab injection 癅毚鋤苜B屶ゃ Humira Oncology Received clinical trial notice 2132017 NA

CXHL1502188 Netupitantpalonosetron capsules 琉朗淳匹桙u淛垂86娜把 Akynzeo Chemotherapy-

induced nausea amp

vomiting


CXHL1502346 Doxercalcifero capsules 欸47充綶娜把 Hectoral Osteoporosis Received clinical trial notice 372017 NA

CXHL1502351 Sacubitrilvalsartan tablets times櫃魲齒於times匹 Entresto CVD Received clinical trial notice 372017 NA

CXHL1502342 Idelalisib tablets 廋牀萸巛 Zydelig Oncology Received clinical trial notice 372017 NA

CXHL1502325 Palbociclib capsules 桙匠≢巛娜把 Ibrance Oncology Received clinical trial notice 3152017 NA

CXHL1502213 Daclatasvir hydrochloride tablet ウ155660毚奨延餑 Daklinza HCV Received clinical trial notice 3152017 NA

CXHL1600170 TQ-B3203 for injection B屶49TQ-B3203 NA Oncology Received clinical trial notice 4172017 NA

CXHL1600172 TQ-B3233 capsules TQ-B3233娜把 NA Oncology Received clinical trial notice 4202017 NA

CXHL1502398 Trelagliptin succinate tablets 63ミ155660齒頻祭 Zafatek Diabetes Received clinical trial notice 552017 NA

CYHS1200627 Polyene phosphatidyl choline injection 沃L」拌紒勇バレルB屶ゃ Essentiale Hepatopathy Received clinical trial notice 552017 Tiantaishan Pharma



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Figure 51 Pipeline of SBP - continuedApplication

registration no


time

Key competitors

CXHL1600237 TQ-B3525 tablets TQ-B3525 NA Oncology Received clinical trial notice 692017 NA

CXHL1502348 Doxercalcifero injection ᓖ僘䞷ሴ Hectoral Osteoporosis Received clinical trial notice 6202017 NA

CXHL1502336 Mesylate safinamide tablets 䞨⋉㣜䞠㜪 Xadago Agitans paralysis Received clinical trial notice 6282017 NA

CXHL1600233 Aifenfuwei tablets 㢮䞊世 NA HBV Received clinical trial notice 6282017 NA

CXHL1600200 TQ-A3334 tablets TQ-A3334 NA Hepatitis Received clinical trial notice 762017 NA

CYHS1301384 Fulvestrant injection ≏㔤ਨ㗔ሴ Faslodex Oncology Received clinical trial notice 7212017 NA

CYHS1301570 Oteracil Porassium ᴯ㾯䫮 NA Oncology Received clinical trial notice 7212017 4 companies including

Hengrui

CYHS1400619 Pyrimidine ਹ㖾 NA Oncology Received clinical trial notice 8142017 Hengrui Qilu Pharma

Haiwangfu Pharma

CYHS1500891 Dexmedetomidine hydrochloride

injection

ⴀ䞨ਣ㖾ᢈᇊሴ Precedex Sedation Received clinical trial notice 8142017 4 companies including

Hengrui

CYHS1401632 Fondaparinux sodium injection 䗮㛍Ⲩ䫐ሴ Arixtra CVD Received clinical trial notice 10202017 NA

CXSL1700018 TQB2450 injection TQB2450ሴ NA Oncology Received clinical trial notice 1112017 NA

CYHS1000608 Invert sugar injection 䖜ሴ NA Dilution fluid infusion Under clinical trial application review 1282010 4 companies including

Medco

CYHS1001212 Ademetionine14-

butanedisulfonate for injection

ሴбҼ䞨㞪㤧㳻≘

䞨

NA Cholestasis Under clinical trial application review 5162011 Zhenyuan Pharma

Haisun

CYHS1100198 Argatroban Injection 䱯ᴢ⨝ሴ Acova CVD Under clinical trial application review 9282011 Tianjin Institute of

Pharmaceutical

ResearchCYHS1200557 Hydroxyethyl starch 20005 and

sodium chloride injection

㗏҉ส㊹20005≟䫐

ሴ

NA Fluid therapy Under clinical trial application review 8132012 NA

CYHS1300432 Fasudil hydrochloride injection ⴀ䞨㡂ൠቄሴ Eril Cerebral ischemia Under clinical trial application review 12102013 24 companies including

ChaseSun

CYHS1300848 Docetaxel injection ཊ㾯Ԇ䎋ሴ Taxotere Oncology Under clinical trial application review 12182013 21 companies including

Qilu Pharma

CYHS1301031 Calcium levofolinate for injection ሴᐖӊਦ䞨䫉 NA Oncology Under clinical trial application review 12202013 5 companies including

Lingnan Pharma

CYHS1301562 Moxifloxacin hydrochloride and


ⴀ䞨㧛㾯⋉ᱏ≟䫐ሴ

Avelox Anti-infection Under clinical trial application review 2172014 Yoko Bio Tiantaishan

Pharma (injection form)


injection

ⴀ䞨㧛㾯⋉ᱏሴ Avelox Anti-infection Under clinical trial application review 422014 Hengrui

CYHS1301849 Bortezomib for injection ሴᴯր Velcade Oncology Under clinical trial application review 4212014 NA

CYHS1302125 Caspofungin acetate for injection ሴ䞻䞨⋺㣜 Cancidas Anti-infection Under clinical trial application review 11272014 4 companies including

Lunan Pharma

CYHS1401474 Sodium potassium magnesium

calcium glucose Injection

䫐䫮䭱䫉㪑㨴ሴ NA Supplements Under clinical trial application review 1212015 Hengrui

CYHS1500007 Parecoxib sodium for injection ሴᑅ⪎᱄ᐳ䫐 Dynastat Analgesia Under clinical trial application review 5212015 NA

CYHS1500266 Gadoxetic acid disodium injection 䪶ຎ䞨Ҽ䫐ሴ Primovist MRI contrast agent Under clinical trial application review 692015 NA

CYHS1500865 Ganirelix acetate injection 䞻䞨ቬ⪎ݻሴ Orgalutran Reproduction Under clinical trial application review 9212015 NA

CYHS1501162 Iodixanol injection 䞷ሴ⋊ݻ Visipaque X-line contrast agent Under clinical trial application review 12112015 Hengrui Yangzi River

Pharma Beilu Pharma

CYHS1501277 Menantine Hydrochloride ⴀ䞨㖾䠁ࡊ Ebixa Alzheimer disease Under clinical trial application review 3142016 United lab

CXSL1700093 Liraglutide injection 励㛭ሴ Victoza Diabetes Under clinical trial application review 9272017 NA

CXSL1700090 Pertuzumab injection ᑅ⨐অᣇሴ Perjeta Oncology Under clinical trial application review 10182017 NA

CXHL1700215 TQ05105 tablet TQ05105 NA NA IND review 10162017 NA

CXHL1700049 TQ-A3326 tablet TQ-A3326 NA Hepatitis IND review 5112017 NA

CXHL1700218 TQB3455 tablet TQB3455 NA Oncology IND review 1122017 NA


CXHL1700210 TQB3616 capsule TQB3616㜦 NA Oncology IND review 9302017 NA

CXHL1700149 TQ05510 capsule TQ05510㜦 NA NA IND review 7272017 NA



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Hengrui Medicine

Hengrui owns a number of innovative and generic drugs in its pipeline 6 outof 9 drugs under regulatory review are oncology blockbusters including 19Kpaclitaxel gefinitib pyrotinib and abiraterone Ondansetron atorvastatin andtrimetazidine have completed BE studies and carvedilol has finished the phase3 clinical trial We highlight that 9 drugs including SHR-1210 henagliflozinretagliptin hetrombopag and remimazolam are conducting a phase 3 studyand 27 drugs are at other clinical stages Over 100 drugs have also received anotice regarding the results of the clinical trial review while the exact number ofapprovals remains unknown due to a lack of information

We list all drugs in Hengruis pipeline by regulatory status in the tables below

Figure 52 Pipeline of HengruiApplication

registration no


time

Key competitors

CYHS1390043 Clopidogrel bisulfate tablets Plavix CVD Under regulatory review 742013 Salubris Lepu

Pharma

CXHS1500016 Sodium bicarbonate Ringers injection 䞨≒䫐Ṭሴ Bikaneto Fluid therapy Under regulatory review 2262015 NA


bound)

˄

ර˅


CXSS1700005 Oncology Under regulatory review 3242017

CYHS1700082 Gefitinib Tablets Iressa Oncology Under regulatory review 6192017 Qilu

CYHS1700055 Temozolomide for injection ሴᴯ㧛㜪 Temodar Oncology Under regulatory review 6302017 Tasly Shuanglu (oral)

CXHS1700013 Pyrotinib maleate tablets Oncology Under regulatory review 8222017

CYHS1700170 Azilsartan tablets 䱯喀⋉ඖ Azilva CVD Under regulatory review 8302017 NA


CTR20131157 Ondansetron orally dissolving films ѩਨ⩬ਓ㞄䀓㮴㟌 Zuplenz CINV BE study completed 3132014 8 companies including

Qilu

CTR20150160 Atorvastatin tablets 䱯ᢈՀԆ≰䫉 Lipitor CVD BE study completed 422015 Jarlin Neo-Dankong

Baike Pharma

CTR20170630 Trimetazidine dihydrochloride

modified release tablets

ⴀ䞨ᴢ㖾Ԇచ㕃䟺 Vasorel CVD BE study completed 6152017 12 companies

CTR20131916 Carvedilol sulfate sustained-release

capsules

䞨㔤ൠ㕃䟺㜦 Coreg CVD Phase 3 completed 1152014 NA

CTR20140320 Evastatin tablets ⴀ䞨ԺՀᐳ䴧ᇊ NA CVD BE study ongoing 4302014 NA

CTR20150819 Pregabalin sustained-release tablets Პ⪎ᐤ㕃䟺 Lyrica CR Analgesics BE study ongoing 12102015 Succeway

CTR20170037 Tadalafil tablets Ԇ䗮䶎 Cialis ED BE study ongoing 1182017 NA

CTR20170153 Salmeterol Xinafoate and Fluticasone

Propionate Powder for Inhalation (I)

(I) Advair COPD BE study ongoing 2242017

CTR20170374 Pramipexole hydrochloride sustained-

release tablets

ⴀ䞨Პݻ㕃䟺 Mucosolvin PD BE study ongoing 4242017 NA


CTR20131184 Peramivir three hydrate sodium

chloride Injection

ᑅ世йleਸ≟䫐ሴ

Rapivab Anti-infection Phase 3 ongoing 1162014 Nanxin Pharma

CTR20131274 Tolvaptan Tablets ᢈՀᲞඖ Samsca Hyponatremia Phase 3 ongoing 3312014 NA

CTR20132240 Evastatin slow-release tablets 䞨≒ԺՀᐳ䴧ᇊ㕃䟺 NA CVD Phase 3 ongoing 852014 NA

CTR20160922 Esketamine hydrochloride injection ⴀ䞨㢮ਨ≟㜪䞞ሴ Ketanest Anesthesia Phase 3 ongoing 1282016 NA

CTR20160943 Retagliptin tablets Diabetes Phase 3 ongoing 12192016

CTR20170307 SHR-1210 for injection SHR-1210 Oncology Phase 3 ongoing 4172017

CTR20170527 Henagliflozin tablets Diabetes Phase 3 ongoing 5262017

CTR20170792 Hetrombopag ethanolamine tablets Primary immune

thrombocytopenia

Phase 3 ongoing 7212017

CTR20170948 Remimazolam toluene sulphonatic

acid for injection

Sedation Phase 3 ongoing 8312017

CTR20131980 Famitinib malate capsules 㤩䞨ᴯቬ㜦 NA Oncology Phase 2 ongoing 1292014 NA

CTR20170584 SHR4640 tablets SHR4640 NA Gout Phase 2 ongoing 6122017 NA

CTR20170943 SHR0302 tablets SHR0302 NA Rheumatoid Phase 2 ongoing 9152017 NA

CTR20160047 SHR3680 tablets SHR3680 NA Oncology Phase 12 ongoing 222016 NA

CTR20150194 Fasiglifam tablets Ṭࡇrfloor NA Diabetes Phase 1 ongoing 412015 NA

CTR20150231 Huanmidegib tablets ⧟ᗧਹ NA Oncology Phase 1 ongoing 4232015 NA

CTR20150246 HAO472 for injection ሴHAO472 NA Leukemia Phase 1 ongoing 722015 NA

CTR20150626 Irinotecan hydrochloride liposome

injection

ⴀ䞨Ժᴯᓧ㜲䍘փሴ Onivyde Oncology Phase 1 ongoing 9212015 NA

CTR20150706 M6G injection M6Gሴ NA Analgesics Phase 1 ongoing 10212015 NA

CTR20150708 Roflumilast tablets 㖇≏ਨ Daxas COPD Phase 1 ongoing 1122015 NA


CTR20160824 SHR-1314 injection SHR-1314ሴ NA Autoimmune

diseases

Phase 1 ongoing 11102016 NA

CTR20170026 Paracetamol Injection ሩ҉䞠≘ส䞊ሴ Tylenol Analgesics Phase 1 ongoing 262017 12 companies

CTR20170174 Bevacizumab Injection Avastin Oncology Phase 1 ongoing 362017



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Figure 53 Pipeline of Hengrui - continued

Application

registration no


time

Key competitors


CTR20170759 Ketamine hydrochloride injection ウ155660酢o尔紃B屶ゃ Ketaset Anesthesia Phase 1 ongoing 7172017 NA

CTR20171118 Dexmedetomidine hydrochloride nasal

sprayウ155660酢雇臀層奘浧痛擦 Precedex Sedation Phase 1 ongoing 9212017 4 companies

(injection)

CTR20150739 Omega -3- acid ethyl ester 90 soft

capsules炅爾-3-155660暗䋆90棷娜把 NA CVD Clinical trial ongoing 1212015 NA

CTR20170008 Rebamipide eye drops t杼oumlゐ`42ゃ Rebagen Xerophthalmia Clinical trial ongoing 1122017 Yuanlijian Shenghuaxi

Pharma

CTR20171202 Glycopyrronium bromide injection 頻箰唪B屶ゃ Robinul Anesthesia GI Clinical trial ongoing 10142017 Dongting Pharma

CYHS0500977 Glipizide Tablets 頻祭性逓 Metaglip Diabetes Received clinical trial notice 8252005 60 companies

CXHL0500793 Ondansetron Hydrochloride Orally

Disintegrating Tabletsウ155660饂哀垂86人蠅找ㇸ Zofran CIVN Received clinical trial notice 1122006 6 companies

CXHL0500957 Rosiglitazone Metformin

Hydrochloride Tablets機頻祭紃ウ155660因59振曜 Avandamet Diabetes Received clinical trial notice 5232006 NA

CYHS0506850 Fleroxacin tablets _機times駢 Levaquin Anti-infection Received clinical trial notice 742006 8 companies

CXHL0501321 Atomoxetine Hydrochloride Capsules ウ155660臀琛≢娜把 Strattera ADHD Received clinical trial notice 1162007 Topfond SBP

CYHS0601963 Famciclovir Tablets 5駘u餑 Famvir Herpes Received clinical trial notice 10232007 11 companies

CYHS0600721 Ondansetron Hydrochloride Tablets ウ155660饂哀垂86 Zofran CIVN Received clinical trial notice 10232007 6 companies

CXHL0600288 Erbesartan amlodipine tablets 礁鸇times匹ho般樅 Aimix CVD Received clinical trial notice 2182008 NA

CXHL0600419 Manidipine Hydrochloride Tablets ウ15566047巛般樅 Iperten CVD Received clinical trial notice 462008 Haisco Hengsheng

Pharma

CXHL0600426 Duloxetine Hydrochloride Enteric-

coated Tablets

ウ155660欸u≢帽 Cymbalta Depression Received clinical trial notice 7312008 SPH Enhwa Pharma

CXHL0502175 Mitiglinide tablets 頻祭琉 Glufast Diabetes Received clinical trial notice 8132008 7 companies

CXHL0501648 Yinduoxibu tablets o西駘柞 NA RA Received clinical trial notice 8292008 NA

CXHL0600994 Clofarabine injection o萸TB屶ゃ Clolar Leukemia Received clinical trial notice 1092008 NA

CXHL0700077 Tamibarotene tablets 延杼機 Amnolake Leukemia Received clinical trial notice 10132008 NA

CXSL0600001 Injection of peginterferon a1b B屶49導暗因綶槧舩Icirca1b Pegasys HBV Received clinical trial notice 482009 NA

CYHS0603216 Xylometazoline hydrochloride ウ155660131953u逮短 Contac NT Nasitis Received clinical trial notice 6172009 Yuanda Pharma

Tiancheng Pharma

CXHL0501156 Mosapride Citrate Oral Solution 翰俉155660琛times犲咲人ゃ NA Alimentary Received clinical trial notice 6302009 5 companies including

Kanghong Pharma

CXHL0600664 Dexpanthenol xylometazoline nasal 酢5綶131953u逮短浧痛蜮擦 NA Rhinobyon Received clinical trial notice 7172009 NA

CXHL1000169 Miconazole Zinc Oxide Ointment 層殀逮g充嘵棷鯟 Daktozin Ammonia rash Received clinical trial notice 1242011 NA

CXHL1000247 Ambroxol erdosteinate tablets 礁沃垂匹h ETH NA Chronic bronchitis Received clinical trial notice 632011 NA

CXHL1000422 Rosiglitazone Glimepiride Tablets 機頻祭紃頻祭雇籘 Avandaryl Diabetes Received clinical trial notice 1262011 NA

CYHS1000426 Voglibose Tablets 何頻祭ltpound Voglib CVD Received clinical trial notice 152012 10 companies

CXHL1000375 Dronedarone Hydrochloride Tablets ウ155660膏琉毚箰 Multaq CVD Received clinical trial notice 1262012 NA

CXHS1000227 Palonosetron Hydrochloride injection ウ155660桙u淛垂86B屶ゃ Aloxi CINV Received clinical trial notice 492014 12 companies

CXHL1100729 Sodium citrate Ringers injection 翰俉155660侷頻B屶ゃ Bicanate Fluid therapy Received clinical trial notice 7102014 NA

CXHL1300533 Retagliptin metformin tablets (I) t頻祭因59振曜(I) NA Diabetes Received clinical trial notice 8262014 NA

CXHL1300534 Retagliptin metformin tablets (II) t頻祭因59振曜(II) NA Diabetes Received clinical trial notice 8262014 NA

CXSL1000044 Pegylated interferon alpha -2b

injection勉充槧舩Icirc干-2bB屶ゃ NA Viral hepatitis

condyloma

acuminatum

leukemia oncology


CXHL1100039 Clindamycin phosphate sustained

release cream

固螿Icirc」155660䋆鷏䏰胃鯟 Cleocin HCl Colpopathy Received clinical trial notice 10152014 NA

CXHL1301124 Carbidopa and Levodopa sustained-

release capsules奨朿振沃杼鷏䏰娜把 Sinemet PD Received clinical trial notice 2252015 NA

CXHL1200620 Everolimus tablets 鰹齎琛垂 Zortress Oncology Received clinical trial notice 852015 NA

CXHL1300020 Cinacalcet hydrochloride tablets ウ155660≢畲奨摩 Sensipar CKD Received clinical trial notice 9162015 NA

CYHS1100020 Irbesartan and hydrochlorothiazide 礁鸇times匹bo酉逓 Avapro CVD Received clinical trial notice 10202015 8 companies

CYHS1101372 Valsartan and Amlodipine Tablets (I) 於times匹ho般樅(I) Exforge CVD Received clinical trial notice 1152015 NA

CXHL1200679 Solifenacin Succinate oral

disintegrating tablets63ミ155660ETH咲畲霰人蠅找ㇸ Vesicare Overactive bladder Received clinical trial notice 1152015 NA

CXHL1200464 Pregabalin oral solution 鯢t杼人ゃ Lyrica CR Analgesics Received clinical trial notice 11132015 Succeway

CXHL1301253 Medium long chain fat emulsion

amino acid (16) glucose (16) ш懜嗃拌磨胃h娩155660(16)繳磲

pound(16)B屶ゃ

NA Supplements Received clinical trial notice 11192015 NA

CXHL1200730 Limaprost tablets 咲47晒祭Icirc Opalmon CVD Received clinical trial notice 11192015 NA

CXHL1300019 Ulipristal acetate tablets 緦155660宛咲垂延 Ellaone Contraception Received clinical trial notice 11192015 NA

CXHL1300395 High calorific value Carbohydrate and

Electrolyte Injection No 195J客び崇pound62ㇸ131234B屶ゃ1吹

ゃ




ゃ


CXHL1300257 Alendronate sodium effervescent 癅円132625155660侷鏝 Steovess Osteoporosis Received clinical trial notice 12102015 10 companies

CYHS1400188 Ticagrelor tablets 龕頻tu Brilinta CVD Received clinical trial notice 12152015 NA



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Figure 54 Pipeline of Hengrui - continuedApplication

registration no


time

Key competitors

CXHL1400431 Tafluprost eye drops 延_晒祭Icirc`42ゃ lrmSaflutan Ocular Received clinical trial notice 12152015 NA

CXHL1300815 Phentermine topiramate hydrochloride

sustained release capsules

ウ155660懟ゐ馭臀性䋆鷏䏰娜把 Qsymia Obesity Received clinical trial notice 12152015 NA

CYHS1201065 Dutasteride Soft Capsules 欸延胭尔棷娜把 Jalyn BPH Received clinical trial notice 12242015 NA

CXHL1400753 Omega -3 fish oil Medium and Long

Chain Fat Emulsion Injection

ω-3僲ucircш懜嗃拌磨胃B屶ゃ NA Supplements Received clinical trial notice 12242015 NA

CXHL1300470 Twenty carbon five enate soft capsules 因順陰L155660暗䋆棷娜把 NA CVD Received clinical trial notice 12242015 NA

CXHL1200666 Esomeprazole magnesium 複ETH雇萸逮媲 Naxium GI Received clinical trial notice 12242015 Lummy

CXHL1300256 Landiolol hydrochloride injection B屶49ウ155660語般u峽 Onoact CVD Received clinical trial notice 12242015 NA

CXHL1300255 Landiolol Hydrochloride ウ155660語般u峽 Onoact CVD Received clinical trial notice 12302015 NA

CXHL1300717 Lanthanum carbonate granules 155660廑潴B Fosrenol Hyperphosphatemi Received clinical trial notice 12302015 NA

CYHS1301450 Tacrolimus Sustained-release Capsules 延固琛垂鷏䏰娜把 Fujimycin Inhibition of

rejection reaction

Received clinical trial notice 1212016 7 companies

CYHS1301635 Estradiol and Drospirenone Tablets 腗因綶幃紃 Angeliq HRT Received clinical trial notice 1212016 NA


tablets

暚稅籞侷帽 Myfortic Inhibition of

rejection reaction


CXHL1301071 Cabazitaxel injection 奨杼延131953B屶ゃ Jevtana Oncology Received clinical trial notice 1212016 NA

CXHL1300967 Bepotastine Besilate eye drops 柗〚鸇延霪`42ゃ Bepreve Rhinallergosis Received clinical trial notice 1212016 NA

CXHL1301029 Ketorolac Tromethamine Nasal Spray 紃掃155660hНХ綶浧痛擦 Sprix Analgesics Received clinical trial notice 1222016 NA

CYHS1400510 Drospirenone and Ethinylestradiol 幃紃51腗綶 Gianvi Contraception Received clinical trial notice 1292016 NA

CXHL1400888 Nimodipine oral solution 巛琛般樅人ゃ Nymalize CVD Received clinical trial notice 232016 100 companies (oral)

CYHS1401384 Dapoxetine Hydrochloride Tablets ウ155660毚$≢ Priligy PE Received clinical trial notice 242016 NA

CYHS1500045 Linagliptin tablets 咲頻祭 Tradjenta Diabetes Received clinical trial notice 2292016 NA

CXHL1400307 Ezetimibe and atorvastatin tablets 鰹茉暚柞癅臀伽延伌 Liptrzet CVD Received clinical trial notice 2292016 NA


citrate Ringers injection

吿暗娩さ913004翰俉155660侷

頻B屶ゃ

Voluven ANH Received clinical trial notice 2292016 NA

CXHL1200088 Olmesartan Medoxomil Amlodipine

tablets (I)

陵雇times匹䋆ho般樅(B) Azor CVD Received clinical trial notice 3102016 NA


tablets (II)

陵雇times匹䋆ho般樅(C) Azor CVD Received clinical trial notice 3102016 NA


tablets (III)

陵雇times匹䋆ho般樅(D) Azor CVD Received clinical trial notice 3102016 NA

CXHL1301026 Paricalcitol soft capsules 桙わ47充綶棷娜把 Zemplar Hyperparathyroidis Received clinical trial notice 3102016 NA

CXHL1400276 Lidocaine hydrochloride solution ウ155660咲沃奨輩ゃ Xylocaine Anesthesia Received clinical trial notice 3102016 200+ companies

CXHL1401058 Regadenoson injection +雅邉桵B屶ゃ Lexiscan CVD Received clinical trial notice 3102016 NA

CXHL1401182 Paroxetine mesylate capsules 59〚155660桙機≢娜把 Brisdelle Hot flashes Received clinical trial notice 3172016 Huahai Jianfeng

Wansheng Pharma

CXHL1401092 Edoxaban mesylate tablets 59柗〚155660鰹欸times08 Savaysa CVD Received clinical trial notice 3172016 NA

CXHL1401500 Tapentadol hydrochloric acid

sustained-release tablets

ウ155660延痛延沃鷏䏰 Nucynta ER Analgesics Received clinical trial notice 3242016 NA

CXHL1401346 Istradefylline tablets 穏齒沅バレル Nouriast PD Received clinical trial notice 3252016 NA

CXHL1401577 Tafluprost Timolol Maleate Eye Drops 延_晒祭Icirc47⑲155660酉寸u峽`42ゃ

Tapcom Glaucoma ocular

hypertension


CXHL1401962 Phenylephrine ketorolac solution (for

perfusion)

織g約Ц邉Icirc紃掃155660ゃ(轄89

B49)

Omidria Mydriatic Received clinical trial notice 5122016 NA

CXHL1401938 Sugammadex Sodium injection 噋齣繳pound侷B屶ゃ Bridion NMB Received clinical trial notice 5122016 NA

CXHL0900513 Palonosetron Hydrochloride Spray ウ155660桙u淛垂86痛蜮擦 Aloxi CINV Received clinical trial notice 7212016 12 companies

CYHS1500737 Ezetimibe tablets 鰹茉暚柞 Ezetrol CVD Received clinical trial notice 812016 NA

CYHS1501065 Acarbose tablets 癅奨ltpound Precose Diabetes Received clinical trial notice 842016 Huadong Pharma

CXHL1500171 Iron citrate tablets 翰俉155660刨 Zerenex Anemia Received clinical trial notice 842016 NA

CXHL1500552 Brinzolamide Brimonidine Tartrate

Opthealmic Solution

柞晦尔篚ノ155660 琛巛奘`42ゃ

Simbrinza Glaucoma Received clinical trial notice 8122016 NA

CXHL1501151 Lenvatinib mesylate capsule 59〚155660絢伽龕巛娜把 Lenvima Oncology Received clinical trial notice 8122016 NA

CXHL1501561 Sodium chloride eye drops 般璃」ETH侷`42ゃ Diquas Xeroma Received clinical trial notice 8232016 NA

CXHL1501817 Netupitantpalonosetron capsule 琉朗淳匹桙u淛垂86娜把 Akynzeo Chemotherapy-

induced nausea

vomiting



CYHS1200484 Iodinated Oil Injection 充ucircB屶ゃ Lipiodol Contrast agent Received clinical trial notice 10112016 Xudong Haipu

Pharma Luyin Pharma

CXHL1200773 Entecavir oral solution membrane 發龕奨餑人棈 Baraclude HBV Received clinical trial notice 10112016 9 companies (oral)




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


registration no


time

Key competitors

CYHS1500898 Indacaterol maleate powder for

inhalation

傜ᶕ䞨㥊䗮㖇੨ޕ㊹䴮 Onbrez

Breezhaler


CXHL1501634 Vonoprazan fumarate tablets ᇼ傜䞨⊳䈪䎎 Takecab GI Received clinical trial notice 1192016 NA

CXHL1502034 Palbociclib sulphonate capsules 㗏҉䞨ᑅݻ㜦 Ibrance Oncology Received clinical trial notice 11232016 NA

CXHL1501818 Indacaterol and glycopyrrolate powder

for inhalation

㥊䗮㖇Ṭ䲶䬥੨ޕ㊹䴮 Utibron

Neohaler


CXSL1300040 SHR-A1201 for injection ሴSHR-A1201 NA Oncology Received clinical trial notice 12302016 NA

CYHS1201509 Caspofungin acetate for injection ሴ䞻䞨⋺㣜 Cancidas Anti-infection Received clinical trial notice 1232017 4 companies including

Lunan Pharma

CXSL1500030 SHR-1309 injection SHR-1309ሴ NA Oncology Received clinical trial notice 2212017 NA

CXHL1200385 Edaravone Sodium Chloride Injection 䗮≟䫐ሴ Radicava Stroke Received clinical trial notice 3152017 12 companies

CYHS1301771 Propofol Medium and Long Chain Fat

Emulsion Injection

щ⋺䞊ѝ䮯䬮㜲㛚ңሴ Diprivan Sedation Received clinical trial notice 552017 Jiabo Pharma Guorui

Pharma

CXHL1300867 Zomipletan mouth solution membrane րᴢᲞඖਓ㟌 NA Cephalagra Received clinical trial notice 5262017 9 companies



ⴀ䞨㧛㾯⋉ᱏ≟䫐ሴ Avelox Anti-infection Received clinical trial notice 7212017 Yoko Bio Tiantaishan

Pharma (injection)

CXHL1600294 SHR1459 tablets SHR1459 NA Oncology Received clinical trial notice 7212017 NA

CXSL1500097 SHR0814 injection SHR0814ሴ NA CVD Received clinical trial notice 952017 NA


CYHS1500174 Capobenic alcohol three

betamethasone gel

⋺й䞷ؽԆᶮࠍ㜦 Dovobet Psoriasis Received clinical trial notice 9202017 NA

CXHL1500510 Compound amino acid (18) vitamin

B1 electrolyte injection

༽≘ส䞨(18)㔤B1䀓

䍘ሴ


CXHL1700040 SHR8554 injection SHR8554ሴ NA Analgesics Received clinical trial notice 10172017 NA

CXHL1401282 Glycopyrronium bromide inhalation

powder

Ṭ䲶䬥੨ޕ㊹䴮 Utibron

Neohaler


CXHL1700002 SHR0532 tablets SHR0532 NA NA Received clinical trial notice 11232017 NA

CXZS0505772 Qingyan Zhitong buccal tablets ૭rarrⰋਜ਼ NA Iaryngopharyngitis Under clinical trial application review 5242010 NA

CXHS0800101 Compound tegafur-oteracil potassium

capsules

༽ᴯ≏ᴯ㾯㜦 NA Oncology Under clinical trial application review 9162010 NA

CYHS1200814 Gadobutrol Injection 䪶ᐳ䞷ሴ Gadavist Contrast agent Under clinical trial application review 1182012 NA

CYHS1300223 Fondaparinux sodium injection 䗮㛍Ⲩ䫐ሴ Arixtra CVD Under clinical trial application review 562013 NA

CYHS1201619 Bimatoprost Ophthalmic Solution 䍍㖾ࡇ Lumigan Glaucoma ocular

hypertension

Under clinical trial application review 692013 NA

CXHS0800114 Metformin rosiglitazone capsules Ҽৼ㛽㖇Ṭࡇ䞞㜦 Avandamet Diabetes Under clinical trial application review 7292013 NA


CYHS1301372 Paricalcitol injection ᑅ僘䞷ሴ Zemplar Hyperparathyroidis Under clinical trial application review 1172013 NA

CYHS1301166 Enteral Nutritional Suspension (TPF) 㛐㩕ᛜ(TPF) NA GI Under clinical trial application review 11202013 NA

CYHS1301702 Salmeterol Xinafoate ᱄㩈䞨⋉㖾㖇 Serevent

Diskus

Asthma Under clinical trial application review 2142014 SPH Lunan

CYHS1401639 Inhaled desflurane ੨ޕൠ≏ Suprane Anesthesia Under clinical trial application review 372015 NA

CYHS1500626 Balanced salt solution (for perfusion) ᒣ㺑ⴀ() NA Flushing fluid Under clinical trial application review 612015 NA

CXHS0900209 Cadrofloxacin hydrochloride glucose

injection

ⴀ䞨ቸ⋉ᱏ㪑㨴ሴ NA Anti-infection Under clinical trial application review 10292015 NA

CXZS1300006 Ziqi tablets г NA NA Under clinical trial application review 1152015 NA

CXHS1400097 Metformin pioglitazone tablets Ҽৼ㛽Ṭࡇ䞞 Actoplus Met Diabetes Under clinical trial application review 3102016 Deyuan Pharma

CXHL1600312 SHR-2042 SHR-2042 NA Diabetes Under clinical trial application review 3152017 NA

CXHL1700071 SHR7280 tablets SHR7280 NA Endometriosis Under clinical trial application review 5152017 NA

CXHL1700068 SHR9146 tablets SHR9146 NA Oncology Under clinical trial application review 5152017 NA

CXSL1700039 SHR-A1403 for injection ሴSHR-A1403 NA Oncology Under clinical trial application review 5162017 NA

CXHL1700180 SHR9549 tablets SHR9549 NA NA IND review 832017 NA

NA SHR-1501 injection SHR-1501 ሴ NA Oncology Pre-clinical study ongoing NA NA

NA SHR-1209 injection SHR-1209 ሴ NA CVD Pre-clinical study ongoing NA NA

NA INS068 injection INS068 ሴ NA CVD Pre-clinical study ongoing NA NA



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

CSPC

CSPC is well positioned with a diverse pipeline where 18 drugs are underregulatory review including clopidogrel ticagrelor dasatinib and linezolid 2 BEstudies have been completed for dronedarone and gefitinib and the BE study forrivaroxaban is ongoing CSPC is also conducting a P1 study of recombinant anti-human PD-L1 monoclonal antibodies and about 90 drugs have completed thereview of the clinical trial application

We list all drugs in CSPCs pipeline by regulatory status in the tables below

Figure 56 Pipeline of CSPC

Application

registration no


time

Key competitors

CYHS1790026 Clopidogrel bisulfate tablets Plavix Under regulatory review 3312017 Salubris Lepu Pharma

CXZS0506728 Yan Lu Ru Kang tablets ዙ咯ңᓧ NA Clomastopathy Under regulatory review 11292016 Yibai Pharma

CXHS1500143 Dronedarone Hydrochloride Tablets ⴀ䞨ߣ䗮䲶 Multaq CVD Under regulatory review 10212015 NA


bound)

˄ර˅


CYHS1790027 Dasatinib Tablets 䗮⋉ᴯቬ Sprycel CML Under regulatory review 552017 SBP

CYHS1790022 Ticagrelor tablets Brilinta Under regulatory review 3232017

CYHS1700226 Sunitinib malate capsules 㤩䞨㡂ቬᴯቬ㜦 Sutent Oncology Under regulatory review 8222017 NA

CYHS1700224 Pramipexole Hydrochloride Tablets ⴀ䞨Პݻ Sifol Agitans paralysis Under regulatory review 10262017 NA

CYHS1690005 Moxifloxacin hydrochloride tablets ⴀ䞨㧛㾯⋉ᱏ Avelox Anti-infection Under regulatory review 1252016 NA

CYHS1501104 Doxofylline and Glucose Injection ཊ㥦㪑㨴ሴ Oracea Asthma Under regulatory review 10232015 40+ companies

CYHS1301414 Zoledronic acid injection ᶕ㟖䞨ሴ Aclasta Osteoporosis

Pagetlsquos diseaseUnder regulatory review 762017 SBP Tiantaishan

Pharma Yangzi River

PharmaCYHS1401335 Doxofylline and Sodium Chloride

Injection

ཊ㥦≟䫐ሴ Oracea Asthma Under regulatory review 12292014 40+ companies

CYHS1501338 Linezolid Injection Zyvox Anti-infection Under regulatory review 4272016 SBP Hansoh

CYHS1501106 Tirofiban hydrochloride Sodium

Chloride Injection

ⴀ䞨ᴯ㖇䶎⨝≟䫐ሴ Aggrastat CVD Under regulatory review 10132015 Grand Pharma Lunan

CYHS1401406 Oxiracetam Injection 㾯ඖሴ NA Cerebral injury Under regulatory review 1192015 4 companies including

Shixin Pharma

CYHS1400297 Sodium Acetate Ringers Injection 䞻䞨䫐Ṭሴ NA Fluid therapy Under regulatory review 10112014 Kelun Duorui Pharma

CYHS1302223 Fasudil Hydrochloride Injection ⴀ䞨㡂ൠቄሴ Eril Cerebral ischemia Under regulatory review 4282014 24 companies including

ChaseSun

CYHS1301051 Ornithine Aspartate Injection 䰘ߜ≘䞨呏≘䞨ሴ Hepa-merz Hepatopathy Under regulatory review 1232013 NA

CTR20150310 Dronedarone Hydrochloride Tablets ⴀ䞨ߣ䗮䲶 Multaq CVD BE study completed 6192015 NA

CTR20160500 Gefitinib Tablets Iressa Oncology BE study completed 8312016 Qilu

CTR20140089 Iloperidone tablets Ժ䞞 Fanapt Schizophrenia Phase 2 completed 442014 NA

CTR20131811 Losartan Potassium Tablets ≟⋉ඖ䫮 NA CVD Phase 1 completed 4292014 11 companies including

Dawnrays

CTR20140260 Baicalein tablet 哴㣙 NA Anti-infection Phase 1 completed 4292014 NA

CTR20160901 Recombinant GLP-1 receptor agonist

injection

䟽㓴㜠儈㹰ṧ㛭-1ਇփ

ሴ

Victoza Diabetes Phase 1 completed 392017 NA

CTR20130023 Atorvastatin tablets 䱯ᢈՀԆ≰䫉 Lipitor CVD BE study ongoing 1242013 Jarlin Neo-Dankong

Baike Pharma

CTR20130049 Rosuvastatin calcium tablets ⪎㡂ՀԆ≰䫉 Crestor CVD BE study ongoing 3262013 5 companies including

SBP

CTR20130727 Levoamlodipine maleate

Atorvastatin Calcium Tablets

傜ᶕ䞨ᐖ≘≟ൠᒣ䱯ᢈՀԆ

≰䫉

NA CVD BE study ongoing 7242014 NA

CTR20171299 Rivaroxaban tablets Xarelto BE study ongoing 10302017

CTR20160346 Mitoxantrone Hydrochloride liposome

injection

ⴀ䞨ᢈ㫭䞼㜲䍘փሴ Novantrone Oncology Phase 2 ongoing 6122016 NA

CTR20170397 DBPR108 capsules DBPR108㜦 NA Diabetes Phase 2 ongoing 6262017 NA

CTR20160348 SKLB1028 capsules SKLB1028㜦 NA Oncology Phase 1 ongoing 672016 NA

CTR20170916 Recombinant anti-human PD-L1

monoclonal antibodies

PD-L1 Oncology Phase 1 ongoing 962017



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Figure 57 Pipeline of CSPC - continued

Application

registration no


time

Key competitors

CXHL0500709 Cefuroxime Axetil Granules ཤᆒ䗋䞟仇 NA Anti-infection Received clinical trial notice 12152005 Lijian Pharma

Shijiazhuang the Forth

Pharma Sinopharm

CXHL0502324 Urapidil Tartrate Injection 䞂⸣䞨㢮㣜ൠቄሴ NA Depression Received clinical trial notice 12132006 NA

CYHS0505818 Compound Scopolamine Hydrobromide

Adhesive Plaster༽≒䞨ь㧘㨚䍤㞿 NA CINV Received clinical trial notice 2222008 CR Sanjiu Baiyi

Pharma

CYHS0601113 Cephathiamidine for Injection ሴཤᆒ㝂 NA Anti-infection Received clinical trial notice 10232008 19 companies

CXZL0600252 Jianglan Qinggan capsules ဌ㬍㛍㜦 NA Hepatopathy Received clinical trial notice 232009 NA

CXZL0700068 Yue Qi Jiangtang granules ᴸᶎ䱽仇 NA Diabetes Received clinical trial notice 232009 NA

CXHL0800043 Pidotimod for injection ሴ३ཊ㧛ᗧ Polimod Anti-infection Received clinical trial notice 482009 NA

CYHS0700595 Amphotericin B vaginal effervescent єᙗ䴹B䱤䚃㞮 NA Anti-infection Received clinical trial notice 6112009 Huabei Pharma

CYHS0700594 Nystatin Vaginal Effervescent Tablets 䴹䱤䚃㞮ࡦ NA Anti-infection Received clinical trial notice 6112009 Hengsheng Pharma

Edvor Dongxin Pharma

CYHS0700593 Tinidazole Vaginal Effervescent Tablets ᴯ䱤䚃㞮 NA Anti-infection Received clinical trial notice 6112009 23 companies

CXHL0800197 Meloxicam tablets 㖾᱄ᓧ㛐 Mobic Arthritis Received clinical trial notice 6172009 30+ companies

CYZS0503311 Shangshiqutong plaster ՔⰋ㞿 NA Rheumatism Received clinical trial notice 762009 NA

CYZS0502448 Compound Danshen soft capsules ༽ѩ৲䖟㜦 NA CVD Received clinical trial notice 932009 Baiyuanshan Pharma

CYHL0900006 Domperidone Teblets ཊ䞞 Motilium CINV Received clinical trial notice 622010 27 companies

CYHS0900047 Acarbose Tablets 䱯 Precose Diabetes Received clinical trial notice 7192010 Huadong Pharma

CYHS0900612 Felodipine Sustained-release Tablets 䶎ൠᒣ㕃䟺 Plendil CVD Received clinical trial notice 8302011 11 companies

CYHS0901095 Repaglinide tablets ⪎Ṭࡇ Prandin Diabetes Received clinical trial notice 12132011 4 companies including

Hansoh


Livzon

CYHS1100043 Ganciclovir and Sodium Chloride Injection ᴤ᱄世≟䫐ሴ Cytovene Anti-infection Received clinical trial notice 11202012 Hualong Pharma

CYHS1000100 Ceftazidime Sodium Carbonate ཤᆒԆ䞨䫐 NA Anti-infection Received clinical trial notice 11202012 5 companies including

Qilu

CXHL1000756 Simvastatin Nicotinic Acid Sustained

Release Capsules䗋ՀԆ≰䞨㕃䟺㜦 NA CVD Received clinical trial notice 11292012 NA

CYHS0900522 Meropenem sodium carbonate 㖾㖇ษই䞨䫐 NA Anti-infection Received clinical trial notice 1102013 NA

CYHS1001429 Mezlocillin sodium and Sulbactam

sodium for Injectionሴ㖾㾯䫐㡂ᐤඖ䫐 NA Anti-infection Received clinical trial notice 11212014 5 companies including

Ruiyang Pharma

CYHS1001435 Ciclosporin soft capsules ⧟ᆒ䖟㜦 Gengraf Inhibition of

rejection reaction


CXHL1000759 Candesartan and amlodipine tablets ൾൠ⋉ඖ䞟≘≟ൠᒣ Unisia CVD Received clinical trial notice 10132015 NA

CYHS1301760 Cefixime Tablets ཤᆒݻ㛏 NA Anti-infection Received clinical trial notice 10202015 30+ companies

CXHL1000743 Tebipenem particles ⌠∄ษই䞟仇 Orapenem Anti-infection Received clinical trial notice 10282015 NA

CYHS1100885 Rabeprazole Sodium Enteric-coated

Capsules䴧䍍䫐㛐㜦 Aciphex GI Received clinical trial notice 10282015 9 companies

CYHS1100511 Glucosamine Hydrochloride Capsules ⴀ䞨≘ส㪑㨴㜦 NA Arthritis Received clinical trial notice 10282015 Kangbide Pharma

Chengyi Pharma Puli

Pharma

CYHS1100596 Lansoprazole enteric-coated capsules 㛐㜦ޠ Prevacid GI Received clinical trial notice 11122015 11 companies

CYHS1300450 Metoprolol succinate sustained-release

tablets⩕⧰䞨㖾ᢈቄ㕃䟺 Batalac CVD Received clinical trial notice 12102015 NA

CYHS1201070 Irbesartan and hydrochlorothiazide tablets 䍍⋉ඖ≒≟ಫచ Avapro CVD Received clinical trial notice 12102015 8 companies including

SBP

CYHS1200918 Risperidone tablets ษ䞞 Risperdal Schizophrenia Received clinical trial notice 12102015 7 companies including

Huahai Pharma

CYHS1200474 Glipizide Controlled-release Tablets Ṭࡇచ᧗䟺 Glucotrol Diabetes Received clinical trial notice 12102015 80+ companies

CXHL1300190 Lurasidone hydrochloride tablets ⴀ䞨励㾯䞞 Latuda Schizophrenia Received clinical trial notice 12152015 NA

CYHS1200917 Nifedipine Controlled Release Tablets 㤟ൠᒣ᧗䟺 Adalat CVD Received clinical trial notice 12152015 Shyndec

CXHL1200560 Doripenem for injection ሴཊቬษই Doribax URI Received clinical trial notice 12242015 NA

CYHS1300610 Cefdinir capsules ཤᆒൠቬ㜦 Omnicef Anti-infection Received clinical trial notice 12242015 Tianjin Pharma

Hansoh Jutai Pharma

CXHL1300667 Esomeprazole enteric-coated capsules ෳ㖾䭱㛐㜦 Naxium GI Received clinical trial notice 1142016 Lummy

CXHL1300801 Fosaprepitant dimeglumine injection ሴ⋉३ඖҼ㪑㜪 Emend CINV Received clinical trial notice 1142016 Shuanglu Lummy

CXHL1300659 Vilazzo hydrochloride tablets ⴀ䞨㔤ր䞞 Viibryd Depression Received clinical trial notice 1222016 NA

CYHS1400120 Sorafenib tosylate tablets 㤟䞨䶎ቬ Nexavar Oncology Received clinical trial notice 1292016 NA

CYHS1400023 Sitagliptin Phosphate Tablets 䞨㾯Ṭࡇ≰ Januvia Diabetes Received clinical trial notice 1292016 NA

CXHL1400915 Saxagliptin capsule ⋉Ṭࡇ≰㜦 Onglyza Diabetes Received clinical trial notice 242016 NA

CYHS1400603 Linagliptin tablets Ṭࡇ≰ Trajenta Diabetes Received clinical trial notice 242016 NA

CYHS1400214 Ezetimibe tablets ᣈ哖ᐳ Ezetrol CVD Received clinical trial notice 242016 NA

CXHL1400492 Tofacitinib citrate tablets euro䞨ᢈᴯᐳ Xeljanz Rheumatoid

arthritis




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors

CXHL1400403 Desvenlafaxine extended release tablets 63ミ155660織59陷萸145252鷏䏰 Pristiq MDD Received clinical trial notice 2292016 NA

CXHL1400524 Afatinib dimaleate tablets 47⑲155660癅龕巛 Gilotrif Oncology Received clinical trial notice 2292016 NA

CYHS1500237 Linezolid tablets 咲琉逮尔 Zyvox Pneumonia Received clinical trial notice 2292016 Hansoh (injection)


CYHS1401429 Alogliptin benzoate tablets 柗59155660癅頻祭 Nesina Diabetes Received clinical trial notice 3102016 NA

CXHL1401262 Regorafenib tablets t翹蹍巛 Stivarga Oncology Received clinical trial notice 3172016 NA

CXHL1000741 Valsartan and Hydrochlorothiazide Tablets ho於times酉逓 Exforge HCT CVD Received clinical trial notice 3252016 NA

CXHL1400876 Clopidogrel bisulfate aspirin tablets ペタ155660bo性頻薅癅垂淳 NA NA Received clinical trial notice 3252016 NA

CXHL1401645 Sofosbuvir tablets ETH蹍柞餑 Sovaldi HCV Received clinical trial notice 3252016 NA


CYHS1500699 Cefixime granules 履堊固亡潴B NA Anti-infection Received clinical trial notice 472016 NA

CXHL1402082 Favipiravir tablets 淳萸餑 Avigan NA Received clinical trial notice 542016 NA


CXHL1500201 Belinostat for injection B屶49鸇垂延 Belinostat Oncology Received clinical trial notice 5192016 NA

CXHL1500179 Apremilast tablets 癅鯢垂ゐ Otezla Psoriasis Received clinical trial notice 5192016 NA


CXHL1301442 Benzonatate soft capsules 柗晦畲䋆棷娜把 Tessalon Cough Received clinical trial notice 842016 NA

CXHL1501427 Nintedanib ethyl sulfonic acid soft

capsules暗〚155660巛毚巛柞棷娜把 Ofev IPF Received clinical trial notice 8122016 NA

CXHL1501116 Ipragliflozin L- proline tablets 穏頻祭閤L-簔h155660 Suglat Diabetes Received clinical trial notice 8122016 NA

CXHL1501487 Olaparib capsule 陵萸桙巛娜把 Lynparza Oncology Received clinical trial notice 8122016 NA


CXHL1501713 Mesylate safinae tablets 59〚155660times懟紒尔 Xadago Agitans paralysis Received clinical trial notice 8122016 NA

CXHL1501507 Daclatasvir hydrochloride tablets ウ155660毚奨延餑 Daklinza HCV Received clinical trial notice 8122016 NA

CXHL1501680 Vonoprazan fumarate tablets 嬪47155660Agrave淛萸㒒 Takecab GI Received clinical trial notice 8232016 NA


CYHS1501071 Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate tablets 嬪47155660龕淛餑因性跡䋆 Viread HIV HBV Received clinical trial notice 932016 NA

CYHS1301017 Celecoxib capsules 摩⑲駘柞娜把 Celebrex Rheumatism Received clinical trial notice 9112016 Hengrui SBP

CYHS1300765 CapecitabineTablets 奨勉延T Xeloda Oncology Received clinical trial notice 9112016 Hengrui Qilu SBP

CYHS1101624 Olmesartan Medoxomil Tablets 陵雇times匹䋆 Benicar CVD Received clinical trial notice 9112016 5 companies including

Wansheng Pharma

CYHS1100998 Pitavastatin Calcium Tablets 淳伽延伌 Livalo CVD Received clinical trial notice 9112016 5 companies including

CR Double Crane

CYHS1001286 Cefditoren Pivoxil Tablets 履堊朗円淳䋆 Meiact Anti-infection Received clinical trial notice 9112016 NA

CYHS1301374 Entecavir tablets 發龕奨餑 Baraclude HBV Received clinical trial notice 9262016 7 companies including

SBP

CYHS1301085 Duloxetine Hydrochloride Enteric

Capsulesウ155660欸u≢帽娜把 Cymbalta Depression Received clinical trial notice 9282016 SPH Nhwa

CYHS1401819 Gabapentin Tablets 爾杼痛Н Neurontin Epilepsy Received clinical trial notice 10112016 Sailike Pharma

CYHS1401634 Donepezil Hydrochloride Tablets ウ155660沃琉霜溮 Aricept AD Received clinical trial notice 10182016 11 companies


CYHS1501151 Cefixime Dispersible Tablets 履堊固亡再鑿 NA Anti-infection Received clinical trial notice 10272016 30+ companies

CYHS1100521 Vinorelbine Tartrate for Injection B屶49篚ノ155660懜驀tT Navelbine Oncology Received clinical trial notice 1282016 10 companies

CYHS1101723 Gemcitabine Hydrochloride for Injection B屶49ウ155660嵩≢延T Gemzar Oncology Received clinical trial notice 2132017 15 companies

CXSL1600015 Q101- pegylated recombinant human

interferon alpha 2a injectionQ101-導暗因綶脬氈曳槧舩

Icircα2aB屶ゃ

Pegasys HBV Received clinical trial notice 2212017 NA

CYHS1200678 Arginine nh155660 NA NA Received clinical trial notice 2212017 Taiyangshi Pharma

CYHS1200822 Cefmenoxime Hydrochloride for Injection B屶49ウ155660履堊59亡 NA Anti-infection Received clinical trial notice 3222017 10 companies

CYHS1301299 Aamphotericin B liposome for injection B屶49п畧螿IcircB拌131234灰 NA Anti-infection Received clinical trial notice 5112017 SPH

CYHS1300935 Esomeprazole Sodium for Injection B屶49複ETH雇萸逮侷 Nexium GI Received clinical trial notice 5262017 ASK Pharma SBP

CXHL1500265 Simethicone capsules ≢59ucirc棷娜把 Espumisan GI Received clinical trial notice 692017 Hanchen Pharma

(emulsion)

CYHS1500465 Argatroban Injection 癅爾齒08B屶ゃ Acova CVD Received clinical trial notice 7212017 Tianjin Institute of

Pharmaceutical

ResearchCYHS1401194 Parecoxib sodium for injection B屶49桙t駘柞侷 Dynastat Analgesia Received clinical trial notice 7212017 NA

CYHS1100166 Ceftazidime hydrochloride ウ155660履堊龕壽 NA Anti-infection Received clinical trial notice 7212017 12 companies

CXHL1500796 Colesevelam hydrochloride dry

suspensionウ155660稅⑲齎円槧び砒擦 Welchol CVD Received clinical trial notice 1092017 NA

CXHL1700032 HA121-28 tablets HA121-28 NA Oncology Received clinical trial notice 10172017 NA

CXHL1600165 Alprostadil for Injection liposomes B屶49晒祭般峽拌131234灰 NA Arteriostenosis Received clinical trial notice 10202017 40 companies

CYHS1401029 Calcium Carbornate and Vitamin D3

Granules峅源155660伌D3潴B NA Calcium

supplements

Under clinical trial application

review

11132014 NA

CXHL1501554 Paclitaxel cationic liposome for Injection B屶49Uacute綶痁《坏拌131234灰 NA Oncology Under clinical trial application 1082015 Luye

CXHL1700145 CSPCHA115娜把 CSPCHA115娜把 NA NA IND review 7132017 NA



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

3SBio

3SBio owns 25 drugs in its pipeline covering more than 10 therapeutic areassuch as oncology rheumatoid arthritis dermatology and anemia We summarizebelow the late-stage pipeline disclosed by the company in its interim report 2017

Figure 59 Pipeline of 3SBio

Drug name Indication Classification Status

Bydureon single dose tray Diabetes Imported drug Import drug approval

Bydureon dual chamber pen Diabetes Imported drug Import drug approval

302 Oncology Class I mAb NDA


BK011 Dermatology Class IV Chemical Drug NDA approved

301 (Prefilled Syringe) Rheumatoid arthritis Class I mAb Pre-NDA

KW303 Dermatology Class III Chemical Drug Phase 3 ongoing

SSS06 Anemia Class I Biologics Phase 1 completed

SSS07 Rheumatoid arthritis Class I mAb Phase 1b ongoing

RD001 Anemia Class I Biologics Phase 1 ongoing

602 Oncology Class I mAb Phase 1 ongoing

SSS24 Oncology Class III Chemical Drug Phase 1 ongoing

SSS22 Oncology Class I Chemical Drug Phase 1 ongoing

SSS11 Refractory gout Class I Biologics Phase 1 ongoing

SSS20 ITP Class III Chemical Drug Phase 1 ongoing

AP506 Psoriatic arthritis Class III Chemical Drug Phase 1 ongoing

Source Deutsche Bank company data


8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Tonghua Dongbao

As a bellwether for the diabetes market Tonghua Dongbao (THDB) has anabundant pipeline in this therapeutic area Insulin glargine is now under regulatoryreview and is expected to be launched in 2H18 The company is also conductinga phase 3 study on insulin aspart

We summarize below the total pipeline as disclosed by the company

Figure 60 Pipeline of Tonghua DongbaoApplication

registration no


time

Key competitors

CXSS1700021ਹ Insulin Glargine ⭈㜠ዋሴ Lantus Diabetes Under regulatory review 10112017 NA


CTR20170430 Repaglinide Tablets ⪎Ṭࡇ NovoNorm Diabetes BE study ongoing 7102017 4 companies

including Hansoh

CTR20171014 Sitagliptin Phosphatemetformin

Hydrochloride Tablets

㾯Ṭࡇ≰Ҽৼ㛽 Janumet Diabetes BE study ongoing 8312017 NA

CTR20150361 Insulin Aspart Injection 䰘ߜ㜠ዋሴ NovoRapid Diabetes Phase 3 ongoing 6102015 NA

CTR20170863 Adalimumab Solution for Injection 䱯䗮ᵘঅᣇሴ Humria RA Phase 1 ongoing 8182017 NA

CXHL1600043 Amber with sitagliptin tablets ⩕⧰䞨ᴢṬࡇ≰ Zafatek Diabetes Received clinical trial approval 512017 NA

CXSL1500039 Insulin detemir ൠ㜠ዋ Levemir Diabetes Received clinical trial approval 10172017 NA

CXSL1700132 ਹ Recombinant Lispro Insulin Injection 䟽㓴䎆㝟㜠ዋሴ Humalog DiabetesUnder clinical trial application review 1192017 Ganli

CXSL1700128 ਹ Mixed Protamine Zinc Recombinant

Human Insulin Lispro Injection (25R)

㳻ⲭ䬼䟽㓴䎆㝟㜠ዋਸሴ˄25R˅

Humalog Mix25 DiabetesUnder clinical trial application review 1192017 Ganli




Humalog Mix50 DiabetesUnder clinical trial application review 1192017 NA

CXSL1700143ਹ Liraglutide Injection 励㛭ሴ Victoza DiabetesUnder clinical trial application review 11162017 NA

Source Deutsche Bank company data yaozh CFDA


8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Fosun Pharma

Fosun owns several blockbusters in its pipeline most notably the rituximabbiosimilar which filed for production on October 30 this year Besides the phase3 study for the influenza subunit vaccine has been completed while 3 biosimilarsare undergoing phase 3 studies for at least one indication The company also has26 additional drugs at the pre-clinical stage

We summarize below the drugs from Fosun that have at least reached the clinicalstage

Figure 61 Pipeline of Fosun PharmaApplication

registration no


time

Fosuns subsidiary Competitors

CXSS1700026 Rituximab biosimilar ∐⦌㗻㳏㶙 Rituxan Diffuse large B cell lymphoma

(DLBCL) Rheumatoid arthritis

Under regulatory review (DLBCL)

Phase 1 and 2 ongoing (Rheumatoid

10302017 Shanghai Henlius Innovent

SinoCelltech

CTR20131614 Influenza subunit vaccine 㴨ㄆ䖬㮹ẁἴ䖒劾 NA Influenza virus infection Phase 3 completed 882015 Dalian Aleph AbampB Biotech

CTR20160526 Trastuzumab biosimilar 㛙⦌䏇㳏㶙 Herceptin Oncology Phase 3 ongoing 11302016 Shanghai Henlius Anke

CTR20171123 Adalimumab biosimilar 昦徥㜏㳏㶙 Humira Psoriasis

Rheumatoid arthritis

Phase 3 ongoing (Psoriasis)

Phase 1 ongoing (Rheumatoid arthritis)

10302017 Shanghai Henlius Innovent Qilu Bio-

Ther Hisun

CTR20160783 Insulin glargine biosimilar 憴享䓿䲥僗Ⲃ䴇㳏㶙 Lantus Diabetes Phase 3 ongoing 4262017 Jiangsu Wanbang THDB Xinshidai

Zhejiang Haizheng

CTR20160931 Bevacizumab biosimilar 崄ỷ䏇䱢ἣ卖 Avastin Oncology Phase 1 ongoing 12242016 Shanghai Henlius Innovent Stainwei

Bio-Thera

and BJ Mabworks

NA GX-E2 NA NA Anemia Phase 2 ongoing 2242016 Shanghai Chemo

Wanbang

NA

NA SAF-189s NA NA Oncology Phase 2 ongoing 28-Sep-2017 Chongqing Fochon

Jiangsu Wanbang

NA

NA HLX07 undisclosed EGFR-

targeting mAb

NA NA Oncology Phase 1 ongoing (Taiwan) 1122017 Shanghai Henlius NA

Source Deutsche Bank Cortellis Company data chinadrugtrialsorgcn


8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Sihuan Pharma

Sihuan focuses on innovative and generic drugs in therapeutic areas includingcardio-cerebral vascular disease oncology hepatopathy and central neuralsystem Notably the phase 3 study on L-phencynonate hydrochloride tablets hasbeen completed We highlight that Sihuan is also actively involved in RampD inclopidogrel and ticagrelor generics

We summarize Sihuans late-stage pipeline in the table below

Figure 62 Pipeline of SihuanApplication

registration no Drug name (EN) Drug name (CN) Brand name Indication Status

Status start

time Key competitors

CTR20160849 Levetiracetam Tablets ⷍṀ奦䈮 Keppra Epilepsy BE study completed 1142016 4 companies

including Salubris

CTR20170020 Rivastigmine Hydrogen Tartrate Capsules 憴愹䟚慟ⷛ㰧僝 Exelon AD BE study completed 3152017 NA

CTR20170121 Levamlodipine besylate tablets 勖䣡慟ⷍ㖲㰏㰖䈮 NA CVD BE study completed 6212017 11 companies

CTR20161075 Flupirtine maleate capsules 橓㝌慟㰆㰧僝 Katadolon Analgesics BE study completed 5262017 Easton

CTR20170318 Clopidogrel bisulfate tablets 䡒慟㰉㰖㠣曞䈮 Plavix CVD BE study ongoing 4182017 Salubris Lepu

Pharma

CTR20170526 Ticagrelor tablets 㛦㠣䑅㴂䈮 Brilinta CVD BE study ongoing 5312017 NA

CTR20171125 Gabapentin capsules supeⷛ僝 Neurontin Epilepsy BE study ongoing 9212017 Hengrui Enhwa

Sailike Pharma

CTR20132601 Pazufloxacin mesylate tablets 䔙䣡慟䏇㲀㘆䈮 Pasil Anti-infection Clinical trial completed 10312014 30+ companies

(injection)

CTR20140259 L-phencynonate hydrochloride tablets ⷍ㖲䚷慟勖䎖慖䈮 NA Cinesia Phase 3 completed 832014 NA

CTR20160951 Ambroxol hydrochloride solution for inhalation 䔏䚷慟㰏㺛䴉㺝㶙 Mucosolvan Respiratory Phase 3 ongoing 12242016 100+ companies

CTR20170059 Botulinum toxin type A for injection 㳏䔏Aࡀࡀপ Botulax Dysmyotonia Phase 3 ongoing 2232017 NA

CTR20132068 Rabeprazole Sodium for Injection 㳏䔏曞崄⓸撇 AcipHex GI Phase 2 completed 2202014 Changao Luoxin

ASK Pharma

CTR20130017 Tian Hu Ning Injection 㳏䔏⤐䐌 NA Anti-infection Phase 2 completed 672014 NA

CTR20132118 Levosulpiride injection ⷍ凹∐㳏㶙 Enliva CINV Phase 2 completed 872015 NA

CTR20150566 Meptazinol hydrochloride tablets 䚷慟併㙕ẽ慁䈮 Meptid Analgesics Phase 2 completed 8172015 NA

CTR20131084 Ranolazine sustained release tablets 曞寡仺憱䈮 Ranexa CVD Phase 2 ongoing 1112013 NA

CTR20132499 Basil capsules (No 1) 伾⊹僝Ƌ1哦 NA Oncology Phase 2 ongoing 1142014 NA

CTR20170535 XZP-5695 XZP-5695 NA Diabetes Phase 1 ongoing 5312017 NA


We also list additional applications disclosed by the company in its interim report2017 below

Figure 63 Pipeline of Sihuan - continuedDrug name (EN) Drug name (CN) Class Indication Status

Imigliptin Dihydrochloride 䚷慟ᾄ㠣⇾㰧 11 Diabetes Phase 2 ongoing

Benapenem 䙥亚⟠ 11 Anti-infective Phase 1 completed

Anaprazole Sodium 亚⓸撇 11 Gastrointestinal disease Phase 1 completed

Tylerdipine Hydrochloride 䚷慟㳗ḷ 11 CCV Phase 1 completed

Janagliflozin supe㠣⇾ 11 Diabetes Phase 1 ongoing

Birociclib 伾奦Ⱓ 1 Oncology Phase 1 ongoing

Pirotinib 伾㛦Ⱓ 11 Oncology Phase 1 ongoing

Fadanafil 徥悊杅 11 Benign prostatic hyperplasia ED Received phase 1-3 clinical trial approval



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Appendix35 innovative drugs approved in YTDOct17

As of end of October 2017 a total of 35 innovative drugs have receivedmanufacturing approval with only one from a domestic company The novel drugsfrom MNCs shall consume a notable portion of incremental healthcare spendingpotentially disrupting the existing drug usage patterns However we highlightthat theres still a large number of applications under priority review for domesticplayers who are then expected to launch more innovative drugs going forward

We summarize below the 35 new drugs classified as Chemical 11 or Biological1 which received manufacturing approval from January to October this year

Figure 64 Innovative drugs approved YTDOct2017

Drug name (EN) Drug name (CN) Generic name (EN) Generic name (CN) Company Date of approval

Betmiga ાӯ Mirabegron জܞાங Astellas 10132017 Others

Invokana 㔒Օ Canagliflozin ԪࠀӧӔ Mitsubishi Tanabe 10122017 Alimentary

Lyxumia ӯݽޞ Lixisenatide ӯ剮 Sanofi 10122017 Alimentary

Opsumit ⟁㬘ਞ Macitentan 㨥 Actelion 10122017 CVS

Tresiba મչଇ Insulin degludec હ办পڴ Novo Nordisk 9272017 Alimentary

Twynsta ՅԆ Telmisartan amlodipine ߁জ㾓㾚ٵ BI 9272017 CVS

Adempas ⪯Riociguat ӯ ա Bayer 9262017 CVS

Jardiance ևல Empagliflozin ӧӔࠀی BI and Eli Lilly 9262017 Alimentary

Ofev Ԇ Nintedanib Esylate 䭠懤ؿଇ٢ؿ BI 9262017 Respiratory

Sovaldi ফԢଗ Sofosbuvir ফ䭝٢ஷ Gilead 9252017 Anti-infective

Exviera רޣ Dasabuvir ଇ٢ஷ AbbVie Inc 9222017 Anti-infective

Viekirax ڏЩ OmbitasvirParitaprevir and

Ritonavir

٧ӯࡁ AbbVie Inc 9222017 Anti-infective

Imbruvica ь䚊 Ibrutinib Ѥؿ߁٢ AbbVie Inc 8282017 Oncology

Olysio ੀ Simeprevir ২ஷ Janssen 8282017 Anti-infective

Xolair 呿Щ Omalizumab ܐԥ Novartis 8282017 Respiratory

Entresto મ Sacubitril Valsartan 儃擿ڀ Novartis 812017 CVS

Triumeq 僊২Ӝ Dolutegravir Sodium Abacavir

Sulfate and Lamivudine

জܞ߁ך GSK 812017 Anti-infective

Azilect Rasagiline ߛ 䟤䭠懤பաҺ Teva 6262017 CNS

Halaven NA Eribulin 䟤䭠懤ਬॹߥ٢ Eisai 6212017 Oncology

Gardasil ଇғ Recombinant Human Papillomavirus

Quadrivalent vaccine

џыгף䣃ओࡀ䡏呙 Merck 5222017 Anti-infective

Kombiglyze XR Saxagliptin and Metformin HCl SR ࠀॹ ӧ㾩и䟤Յ剼ࠀ AstraZeneca 5222017 Alimentary

Bridion ٢ш Sugammadex ਞধ擿 Merck 542017 Others

Vidaza ଇ Azacitidine ۶劌呵 Celgeneذࡨ 542017 Oncology

Daklinza घॹ Daclatasvir ठ懤ଇܞѕஷ BMS 4272017 Anti-infective

Sunvepra ବ Asunaprevir ਞஷ BMS 4272017 Anti-infective

Stivarga Regorafenib ۦЅܦ ؿளۦ Bayer 3272017 Oncology

Trajenta Duo Յ؈ Linagliptin ӯࠀӧ㾩и䟤Յ剼 (Ȼ) BI 3272017 Alimentary

Tagrisso Osimertinib ࡪ 䟤䭠懤ؿ߁٥ AstraZeneca 3242017 Oncology

Nexavar ա২ך Sorafenib Tosylate 䟤ਵ䭠懤ফܞளؿ Bayer 3212017 Oncology

Forxiga ଇև Dapagliflozin ଇࠀӧӔ AstraZeneca 3202017 Alimentary

Zelboraf ѼԨѥ Vemurafenib ਿளؿ Roche 3172017 Oncology

Xeljanz Tofacitinib ߟع 㮁㸈懤٢߁ࡣۺ Pfizer 3142017 Others

Giotrif աࡪ Afatinib ؿ߁ࡣ BI 2282017 Oncology

Votrient Ҷ Pazopanib ؿ٧⬾ GSK 2282017 Oncology

Xi Di Ke ұࢤ Uroacitide injection ㆲך懤剮ذࡨ䃠 NT Pharma 142017 Oncology



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

As for 2016 a total of 6 innovative drugs received manufacturing approval amongwhich 4 were from MNCs and 2 were from domestic players We attribute themuch expanded pipeline in 2017 to improved efficiency of the approval processin China

Figure 65 Innovative drugs approved in 2016Drug name (EN) Drug name (CN) Generic name (EN) Generic name (CN) Company Date of approval

Sirturo 㖖俷䑅 Bedaquiline fumarate 橓慟崄徥 Janssen 1212016 Anti-infective

Actemra 暬併伾 Tocilizumab 䏇 Roche 1142016 Auto-immune

Prevenar 13 㲂Ω13 13-valent Pneumococcal Polysaccharide

Conjugate Vaccine

13Ở傡䁵䏪厳⤁䲽人䖒劾 Pfizer 1112016 Others

Pai Ge Bing 㴥㠣 Peginterferon alfa-2b Injection 偁Ṁṳ慮㉗䴇Ƴ-2b㳏㶙 Xiamen Amoytop 992016 Others

Cervarix 䑅忩 Human Papillomavirus (Types 16 18)

vaccine

⎳ỞạṚ⤛䘋䖬㮹昫䖒劾 GSK 7122016 Others

Tai Jie Xing ⤑Ὲ Nemonoxacin Malate 勠㞃慟⤯寡㲀㘆 Zhejiang Medicine 682016 Anti-infective


Similarly a total of 6 innovative drugs received manufacturing approval in 2015among which 5 were from MNCs and only 1 was from a domestic player


Complera 㙕厘 Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate ぐ㛙∐㛦 Gilead 12302015

Signifor ḄⰣ劓 Pasireotide Diaspartate 族darr㰏慟䑅傤 Novartis 6122015

Zytiga 㳤䎩 Abiraterone Acetate 慲慟昦㮻䉠澀 Janssen 5222015

Corlentor ⅗䉠 Ivabradine Hydrochloride 䚷慟ựỷ曞 Les Laboratoires Servier 5142015

Inlyta 勘䪲徥 Axitinib 昦㗻㛦Ⱓ Pfizer 5122015

Epidaza 䈘尘㲀 Chidamide 奦徥㜓僡 Shenzhen ChipScreen Biosciences 172015



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Attractive pipeline for MNCs in China

Beyond a fruitful year so far for MNCs in terms of innovative compounds wenote that the overall pipeline for MNCs remains attractive in the mid-term Wesummarize below around 30 blockbusters from MNCs that could launch in Chinaover 2018-2020 where 9 drugs are under regulatory review and 6 have completedphase 3 in China

Figure 67 Incoming blockbuster launches expected in 2018-20

Application registration no Generic name Brand name Company Therapeutic area Regulatory status Status start time

JXHS1500077 Lacosamide Vimpat Union Chimique Belge Central nervous system Under regulatory review 7232015

JXHS1500081 Rotigotine transdermal system Neupro Union Chimique Belge Central nervous system Under regulatory review 8122015

JXHS1500111 Dienogest Visanne Bayer Hormones Under regulatory review 12112015

JXHS1600079 Fluticasone furoatevilanterol Relvar Ellipta GlaxoSmithKline Respiratory system Under regulatory review 1222017

JXHS1700009 Buprenorphine and naloxone Suboxone Indivior Central nervous system Under regulatory review 3132017

JXHS1700017 Bendamustine HCl Treanda Teva Oncology Under regulatory review 3292017

JXHS1700031 Tedizolid Sivextro Cubist Anti-infection Under regulatory review 6192017

JXSS1700015 Nivolumab Opdivo Bristol-Myers Squibb Oncology Under regulatory review 1112017

JXHS1400118 Eltrombopag Promacta Novartis Blood Under regulatory review 11152017

NCT01233258 Antihemophilic Factor (Recombinant) Kovaltry Bayer Blood Phase 3 compeleted 1212012

NCT01710358 Baricitinib Olumiant Eli Lilly Mulsculoskeletal Phase 3 compeleted 912015

NCT01764633 Evolocumab Repatha Amgen Cardiovascular Phase 3 compeleted 11112016

NCT01450761 Ipilimumab Yervoy Bristol-Myers Squibb Oncology Phase 3 compeleted 5172017

NCT02388724 Vonoprazan NA Takeda Alimentary system Phase 3 compeleted 7272017

NCT02021656 LedipasvirSofosbuvir Harvoni Gilead Anti-infection Phase 3 compeleted 9292017

NCT01663402 Alirocumab Praluent Sanofi Cardiovascular Phase 3 ongoing 1012012

NCT01858532 Atrasentan NA Abbvie Hormones Phase 3 ongoing 5172013

NCT02540993 Finerenone NA Bayer Alimentary system Phase 3 ongoing 9172015

NCT02861534 Vericiguat NA Bayer Cardiovascular Phase 3 ongoing 9202016

NCT02156492 Evacetrapib NA Eli Lilly Cardiovascular Phase 1 compeleted 1212014

NCT03086356 Idarucizumab Praxbind Boehringer Ingelheim Blood Phase 1 compeleted 5102017

NCT03073213 Ixekizumab Taltz Eli Lilly Dermatology Phase 1 ongoing 4132017

JXHL1100311 Edivoxetine NA Eli Lilly Central nervous system Received clinical trial approval 11302012

JXHL1000322 Ipragliflozin NA Astellas Alimentary system Received clinical trial approval 1252013

JXHL1100463 Alisporivir NA Novartis Anti-infection Received clinical trial approval 8122013

JXHL1100492 Fostamatinib NA AstraZeneca Mulsculoskeletal Received clinical trial approval 9242013

JXHL1400156 Omarigliptin NA Merck Alimentary system Received clinical trial approval 8112015

JXHL1600103 ElbasvirGrazoprevir Zepatier Merck Anti-infection Received clinical trial approval 7182017

JYHB1400658 Mifamurtide Mepact Takeda Oncology Under clinical trial application review 5122016

Source Deutsche Bank yaozh clinicaltrialsgov


8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Model updated 12 November 2017

Running the numbersAsiaHong KongHealth Care

Sino BiopharmaceuticalReuters 1177HK Bloomberg 1177 HK

BuyPrice (6 Dec 17) HKD 1022

Target Price HKD 1300

52 Week range HKD 525 - 1154

Market cap (m) HKDm 81386 USDm 10423

Company ProfileSino Biopharmaceutical as a holding company and through itssubsidiaries is engaged in the RampD and production of hepatitisB and cardio-cerebral vascular (CCV) drugs in China Thecompanys products are in the chemical and modern Chinesemedicine format Additionally its product portfolio serves othertherapeutics such as analgesic orthopedic anti-infective andoncology

Price Performance

Sino BiopharmaceuticalHANG SENG INDEX (Rebased)

Jan 16 Jan 17Jul 16 Jul 17

10

25

5

75

125

Margin Trends

EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin

14 15 16 17E 18E 19E175

20225

25275

30

Growth amp Profitibility

Sales growth (LHS) ROE (RHS)

14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

10

20

30

40

23

24

25

26

27

Solvency

Net debtequity (LHS) Net interest cover (RHS)

14 15 16 17E 18E 19E-20

-15

-10

-5

0

0

200

400

600

800

Jack Hu PhD+852 2203 6208 jackhudbcom

Fiscal year end 31-Dec 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E

Financial SummaryDB EPS (CNY) 016 019 023 029 033 039Reported EPS (CNY) 016 019 022 030 033 039DPS (CNY) 003 003 005 005 006 007BVPS (CNY) 07 08 10 13 15 19Weighted average shares (m) 7412 7412 7412 7412 7412 7412Average market cap (CNYm) 27153 35845 34563 68962 68962 68962Enterprise value (CNYm) 25966 34592 33722 68150 67660 67154

Valuation MetricsPE (DB) (x) 231 250 202 324 283 236PE (Reported) (x) 226 249 212 313 283 236PBV (x) 522 676 457 731 604 499FCF Yield () 49 38 63 22 34 39Dividend Yield () 09 07 11 05 07 08EVSales (x) 26 29 25 46 40 33EVEBITDA (x) 124 124 104 167 144 118EVEBIT (x) 137 137 115 184 162 132

Income Statement (CNYm)Sales revenue 9849 11781 13507 14852 17050 20114Gross profit 7526 9150 10698 11743 13571 16091EBITDA 2099 2786 3255 4088 4686 5709Depreciation 197 257 303 378 485 612Amortisation 9 9 11 11 11 11EBIT 1892 2519 2941 3699 4189 5086Net interest income(expense) 56 -4 -55 -39 -12 11Associatesaffiliates 268 263 297 390 402 414Exceptionalsextraordinaries 0 0 0 0 0 0Other pre-tax income(expense) 13 10 13 13 13 13Profit before tax 2229 2789 3195 4062 4591 5523Income tax expense 350 431 474 661 735 884Minorities 675 917 1088 1197 1417 1717Other post-tax income(expense) 0 0 0 0 0 0Net profit 1204 1440 1633 2204 2439 2923DB adjustments (including dilution) -28 -5 79 -74 0 0DB Net profit 1176 1435 1712 2129 2439 2923

Cash Flow (CNYm)Cash flow from operations 1831 1996 2988 2878 3909 4527Net Capex -501 -646 -803 -1337 -1534 -1810Free cash flow 1330 1349 2185 1542 2375 2717Equity raised(bought back) 0 0 0 0 0 0Dividends paid -256 -240 -380 -347 -468 -518Net inc(dec) in borrowings 0 37 0 0 0 0Other investingfinancing cash flows -2162 -1521 -629 -722 -764 -882Net cash flow -1088 -374 1177 473 1143 1317Change in working capital 24 -361 261 -548 -42 -298

Balance Sheet (CNYm)Cash and other liquid assets 2520 2049 3337 3810 4952 6269Tangible fixed assets 1862 2151 2560 3519 4568 5766Goodwillintangible assets 1571 1540 1564 1943 2333 2735Associatesinvestments 1795 2776 3014 3014 3014 3014Other assets 3522 4830 7056 7945 8914 10238Total assets 11270 13346 17531 20231 23781 28022Interest bearing debt 1372 1398 2904 2904 2904 2904Other liabilities 2882 3493 4437 4779 5706 6731Total liabilities 4254 4890 7342 7683 8610 9635Shareholders equity 5260 6280 7583 9440 11412 13817Minorities 1757 2176 2606 3107 3759 4570Total shareholders equity 7017 8456 10189 12548 15171 18387Net debt -1149 -652 -433 -905 -2048 -3365

Key Company MetricsSales growth () 254 196 147 100 148 180DB EPS growth () 391 221 193 243 146 198EBITDA Margin () 213 236 241 275 275 284EBIT Margin () 192 214 218 249 246 253Payout ratio () 212 167 232 157 192 177ROE () 251 250 236 259 234 232Capexsales () 51 55 59 90 90 90Capexdepreciation (x) 25 24 26 34 31 29Net debtequity () -164 -77 -42 -72 -135 -183Net interest cover (x) nm 5860 535 946 3573 nm

Source Company data Deutsche Securities estimates


8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Model updated 27 August 2017

Running the numbersAsiaChinaHealth Care

Universal MedicalReuters 2666HK Bloomberg 2666 HK





Company ProfileEstablished in 2012 Universal Medical is principally engagedin the provision of integrated healthcare services to hospitals inChina including equipment financing healthcare industry andfinancing advisory services clinical department upgrade servicesand hospital management business It is the largest integratedhealthcare solution provider in China in terms of revenue

Price Performance

Universal Medical HANG SENG INDEX (Rebased)

Jan 16 Jan 17Jul 16 Jul 17456789

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E30

35

40

45

50



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

25

50

75

100

15

20

25

10

30

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

200

400

600



Financial SummaryDB EPS (CNY) 036 043 051 068 089 114Reported EPS (CNY) 036 044 051 068 089 114DPS (CNY) 001 013 015 017 021 025BVPS (CNY) 19 40 38 44 51 60Weighted average shares (m) 1270 1484 1716 1716 1716 1716Average market cap (CNYm) na 7280 8678 10166 10166 10166Enterprise value (CNYm) na 20808 26818 34198 40795 48209

Valuation MetricsPE (DB) (x) na 113 99 87 66 52PE (Reported) (x) na 111 99 87 66 52PBV (x) 000 120 143 136 117 099FCF Yield () na nm nm nm nm nmDividend Yield () na 26 30 29 35 42EVSales (x) nm 95 99 90 65 53EVEBITDA (x) nm 223 203 194 175 162EVEBIT (x) nm 227 207 196 178 165

Income Statement (CNYm)Sales revenue 1553 2193 2701 3808 6311 9016Gross profit 933 1309 1735 2300 3176 4130EBITDA 717 932 1319 1761 2331 2981Depreciation 15 15 22 20 20 20Amortisation 0 0 0 0 20 35EBIT 702 917 1297 1741 2291 2926Net interest income(expense) 0 0 0 0 0 0Associatesaffiliates 0 0 0 0 0 0Exceptionalsextraordinaries -86 -69 -116 -120 -147 -176Other pre-tax income(expense) -5 52 25 0 13 11Profit before tax 611 900 1206 1621 2157 2761Income tax expense 154 242 334 447 593 759Minorities 0 0 0 3 28 53Other post-tax income(expense) 0 0 0 0 0 0Net profit 457 659 872 1171 1536 1949DB adjustments (including dilution) 0 -13 0 0 0 0DB Net profit 457 645 872 1171 1536 1949

Cash Flow (CNYm)Cash flow from operations -3315 -4452 -2382 -4242 -4226 -4678Net Capex -1 -29 -20 -20 -20 -20Free cash flow -3316 -4481 -2402 -4262 -4246 -4698Equity raised(bought back) 805 2776 0 0 0 0Dividends paid -78 -8 -188 -262 -299 -353Net inc(dec) in borrowings 4130 4483 2267 6497 5576 7876Other investingfinancing cash flows -1406 -1357 -270 -1357 -2024 -2310Net cash flow 136 1275 -666 616 -993 514Change in working capital -4471 -6088 -4304 -6613 -7274 -8451

Balance Sheet (CNYm)Cash and other liquid assets 454 1866 1272 1888 895 1410Tangible fixed assets 90 90 99 99 99 99Goodwillintangible assets 0 0 0 500 980 1445Associatesinvestments 21 65 73 65 65 65Other assets 15821 21638 27521 34798 43041 52619Total assets 16385 23658 28965 37349 45080 55637Interest bearing debt 11408 15458 19485 25982 31558 39434Other liabilities 2550 2318 2905 3881 4770 5802Total liabilities 13958 17777 22390 29863 36327 45236Shareholders equity 2427 5881 6574 7484 8721 10316Minorities 0 0 0 3 32 84Total shareholders equity 2427 5881 6574 7487 8752 10401Net debt 10955 13593 18213 24094 30663 38024

Key Company MetricsSales growth () 582 413 231 410 657 429DB EPS growth () 737 209 169 342 312 269EBITDA Margin () 462 425 488 462 369 331EBIT Margin () 452 418 480 457 363 325Payout ratio () 18 286 300 255 230 220ROE () 254 159 140 167 190 205Capexsales () 00 13 07 05 03 02Capexdepreciation (x) 00 19 09 10 05 04Net debtequity () 4513 2311 2770 3218 3503 3656Net interest cover (x) nm nm nm nm nm nm



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Running the numbersAsiaChinaPharmaceuticals Biotechnology

Hengrui MedicineReuters 600276SS Bloomberg 600276 CH

BuyPrice (6 Dec 17) CNY 6536

Target Price CNY 7810

52 Week range CNY 4526 - 7584

Market cap (m) CNYm 181673 USDm 27472

Company ProfileJiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co Ltd was established in 1970and its headquarters is in Lianyungang Jiangsu province Thecompany is primarily involved in the manufacture and RampDof drugs including those for oncology muscle relaxation andanesthetics contrast agents electrolytes and anti-infective drugsApart from its domestic business Hengrui exports drugs to theUS Europe and other countries

Price Performance

Hengrui Medicine Shanghai Composite (Rebased)

Jan 16 Jan 17Jul 16 Jul 17304050607080

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E

30

20

225

25

275



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

10

20

30

40

21

22

23

24

25

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E-60

-40

-20

0





Income Statement (CNYm)Sales revenue 7452 9316 11094 13327 16551 21005Gross profit 6139 7944 9659 11588 14582 18547EBITDA 1912 2643 3094 3872 4875 6153Depreciation 209 218 248 292 427 526Amortisation 4 4 7 6 7 7EBIT 1699 2420 2838 3574 4441 5621Net interest income(expense) 81 148 166 138 185 255Associatesaffiliates 0 0 0 0 0 0Exceptionalsextraordinaries -7 -7 5 -15 0 0Other pre-tax income(expense) 27 1 4 72 33 34Profit before tax 1800 2562 3013 3769 4659 5910Income tax expense 227 338 379 524 647 821Minorities 57 52 45 85 85 85Other post-tax income(expense) 0 0 0 0 0 0Net profit 1516 2172 2589 3160 3927 5004DB adjustments (including dilution) -19 -1 1 9 0 0DB Net profit 1497 2171 2590 3168 3927 5004

Cash Flow (CNYm)Cash flow from operations 1574 2277 2593 2762 3397 4406Net Capex -298 -394 -1110 -1066 -993 -840Free cash flow 1276 1883 1482 1696 2404 3566Equity raised(bought back) 136 19 14 0 0 0Dividends paid -122 -150 -196 -221 -275 -350Net inc(dec) in borrowings -10 0 -10 0 0 0Other investingfinancing cash flows 1 -67 -1512 0 0 0Net cash flow 1280 1684 -221 1475 2129 3216Change in working capital -198 -169 -259 -747 -1117 -1147


Key Company MetricsSales growth () 201 250 191 201 242 269DB EPS growth () 234 445 193 224 239 274EBITDA Margin () 257 284 279 291 295 293EBIT Margin () 228 260 256 268 268 268Payout ratio () 81 69 75 70 70 70ROE () 214 245 232 228 229 235Capexsales () 40 42 100 80 60 40Capexdepreciation (x) 14 18 44 36 23 16Net debtequity () -422 -496 -382 -402 -434 -481Net interest cover (x) nm nm nm nm nm nm



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



Jointown PharmaceuticalsReuters 600998SS Bloomberg 600998 CH





Company ProfileJointown Pharmaceutical Group Co Ltd is principally engagedin the wholesaling and regular chain retailing of pharmaceuticalsand medical equipment The Company also involves in the TCMpharmaceutical production online drug stores and other value-added services

Price Performance

Jointown PharmaceuticalsShanghai Composite (Rebased)


15

20

25

10

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E

25

3

35

2

4



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

1020304050

789101112

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

10

20

30

40

28

3

32

26

34




Valuation MetricsPE (DB) (x) 576 640 377 324 262 202PE (Reported) (x) 462 532 355 228 248 202PBV (x) 381 345 302 252 232 209FCF Yield () nm nm nm 36 22 51Dividend Yield () 00 00 00 06 08 09EVSales (x) 07 08 06 05 04 03EVEBITDA (x) 245 252 168 131 106 86EVEBIT (x) 284 293 194 151 122 99

Income Statement (CNYm)Sales revenue 41068 49589 61557 73934 89665 106792Gross profit 2915 3755 4824 6278 7698 9225EBITDA 1185 1595 2070 2617 3194 3816Depreciation 142 199 242 309 379 472Amortisation 19 22 35 41 30 29EBIT 1023 1374 1793 2266 2786 3316Net interest income(expense) -352 -461 -654 -747 -936 -1050Associatesaffiliates 0 0 0 0 0 0Exceptionalsextraordinaries 0 0 0 0 0 0Other pre-tax income(expense) 83 43 -36 379 -114 -138Profit before tax 753 956 1102 1898 1736 2128Income tax expense 185 252 201 482 429 526Minorities 8 9 28 17 20 20Other post-tax income(expense) 0 0 0 0 0 0Net profit 561 695 874 1399 1287 1582DB adjustments (including dilution) -111 -117 -51 -413 -70 0DB Net profit 450 577 823 986 1217 1582

Cash Flow (CNYm)Cash flow from operations -172 436 431 2261 1973 2794Net Capex -942 -1005 -1146 -1109 -1255 -1175Free cash flow -1114 -569 -715 1152 717 1619Equity raised(bought back) 2062 0 0 0 0 0Dividends paid -161 0 0 0 -197 -42Net inc(dec) in borrowings -260 2887 -633 7000 7000 8500Other investingfinancing cash flows -647 -642 -135 205 -116 -430Net cash flow -119 1675 -1482 8357 7405 9647Change in working capital -1314 -1012 -1430 -301 -858 -739


Key Company MetricsSales growth () 228 207 241 201 213 191DB EPS growth () 63 280 425 164 235 300EBITDA Margin () 29 32 34 35 36 36EBIT Margin () 25 28 29 31 31 31Payout ratio () 00 00 00 141 189 190ROE () 87 81 85 117 97 109Capexsales () 23 20 19 15 14 11Capexdepreciation (x) 59 46 41 32 31 23Net debtequity () 370 335 291 159 119 37Net interest cover (x) 29 30 27 30 30 32



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Appendix 1

Important Disclosures

Other information available upon request

Disclosure checklistCompany Ticker Recent price Disclosure

Hengrui Medicine 600276SS 6449 (CNY) 7 Dec 2017 NA

Jointown Pharmaceuticals 600998SS 1883 (CNY) 7 Dec 2017 NA

Sino Biopharmaceutical 1177HK 1098 (HKD) 7 Dec 2017 13

Universal Medical 2666HK 699 (HKD) 7 Dec 2017 NAPrices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters Bloomberg and other vendors Otherinformation is sourced from Deutsche Bank subject companies and other sources For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than theprimary subject of this research please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at httpgmdbcomgerdisclosureDisclosureDirectoryeqsr Aside from within this report important conflict disclosures can also be found at httpsgmdbcomequities under the Disclosures Lookup and Legaltabs Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing

Important Disclosures Required by US RegulatorsDisclosures marked with an asterisk may also be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United StatesSeeImportant Disclosures Required by Non-US Regulators and Explanatory Notes

Important Disclosures Required by Non-US RegulatorsDisclosures marked with an asterisk may also be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United StatesSeeImportant Disclosures Required by Non-US Regulators and Explanatory Notes

13 As of the end of the preceding week Deutsche Bank andor its affiliate(s) owns one percent or more of a class ofcommon equity securities of this company

For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of thisresearch please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our websiteat httpgmdbcomgerdisclosureDisclosureDirectoryeqsr

Analyst Certification

The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst about the subjectissuers and the securities of those issuers In addition the undersigned lead analyst has not and will not receive anycompensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report Jack Hu


8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Historical recommendations and target price Hengrui Medicine (600276SS)

(as of 12072017)

Current RecommendationsBuyHoldSellNot RatedSuspended Rating

Analyst is no longer atDeutsche Bank

Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1 23

45 6 7 8 9

10

11

12

Jan 16 May 16 Sep 16 Jan 17 May 17 Sep 17000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1 04142016 Buy Target Price Change CNY 5950 Jack Hu PhD 7 04232017 Buy Target Price Change CNY 6500 Jack Hu PhD2 06162016 Buy Target Price Change CNY 4950 Jack Hu PhD 8 05182017 Buy Target Price Change CNY 7000 Jack Hu PhD3 08312016 Buy Target Price Change CNY 5000 Jack Hu PhD 9 05312017 Buy Target Price Change CNY 5850 Jack Hu PhD4 11012016 Buy Target Price Change CNY 5500 Jack Hu PhD 10 08302017 Buy Target Price Change CNY 6050 Jack Hu PhD5 03152017 Buy Target Price Change CNY 6000 Jack Hu PhD 11 10152017 Buy Target Price Change CNY 6900 Jack Hu PhD6 04132017 Buy Target Price Change CNY 6350 Jack Hu PhD 12 11072017 Buy Target Price Change CNY 7810 Jack Hu PhDsectsectsectsect$$$$$sectsectsectsectsect

Historical recommendations and target price Jointown Pharmaceuticals (600998SS)

(as of 12072017)



Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1 23

45 6


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1 07242016 Buy Target Price Change CNY 2440 Jack Hu PhD 4 04282017 Buy Target Price Change CNY 2510 Jack Hu PhD2 08242016 Buy Target Price Change CNY 2450 Jack Hu PhD 5 09252017 Buy Target Price Change CNY 2730 Jack Hu PhD3 09142016 Buy Target Price Change CNY 2610 Jack Hu PhD 6 11172017 Buy Target Price Change CNY 3000 Jack Hu PhDsectsectsectsect$$$$$sectsectsectsectsect


8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Historical recommendations and target price Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177HK)

(as of 12072017)



Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1

23 4 5 6 7 8

910 11 12

13

14

15


250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1 01102016 Hold Target Price Change HKD 630 Jack Hu PhD 9 02062017 Buy Target Price Change HKD 700 Linc Yiu2 02042016 Hold Target Price Change HKD 670 Jack Hu PhD 10 02232017 Buy Target Price Change HKD 750 Jack Hu PhD3 03042016 Upgraded to Buy Target Price Change HKD 670 Jack

Hu PhD11 05302017 Buy Target Price Change HKD 760 Jack Hu PhD

4 04032016 Buy Target Price Change HKD 650 Jack Hu PhD 12 08212017 Buy Target Price Change HKD 820 Anita Wei5 05182016 Buy Target Price Change HKD 640 Jack Hu PhD 13 08282017 Buy Target Price Change HKD 890 Jack Hu PhD6 06072016 Buy Target Price Change HKD 660 Jack Hu PhD 14 10092017 Buy Target Price Change HKD 1000 Jack Hu PhD7 07312016 Buy Target Price Change HKD 620 Jack Hu PhD 15 11122017 Buy Target Price Change HKD 1300 Jack Hu PhD8 11202016 Buy Target Price Change HKD 650 Jack Hu PhDsectsectsectsect$$$$$sectsectsectsectsect

Historical recommendations and target price Universal Medical (2666HK)(as of 12072017)



Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1 2


1000

250

500

750

1 10312016 Buy Target Price Change HKD 960 Jack Hu PhD 2 08272017 Buy Target Price Change HKD 940 Jack Hu PhDsectsectsectsect$$$$$sectsectsectsectsect


8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Equity Rating Key Equity rating dispersion and banking relationships

Buy Based on a current 12- month view of total share-holderreturn (TSR = percentage change in share price from currentprice to projected target price plus pro-jected dividend yield ) we recommend that investors buy the stockSell Based on a current 12-month view of total share-holderreturn we recommend that investors sell the stockHold We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months out andbased on this time horizon do not recommend either a Buyor Sell

Newly issued research recommendations and target pricessupersede previously published research


8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Additional Information

The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectivelyDeutsche Bank) Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sourcesbelieved to be reliable Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness Hyperlinks to third-party websites in this report are provided for reader convenience only Deutsche Bank neither endorses the content noris responsible for the accuracy or security controls of those websitesIf you use the services of Deutsche Bank in connection with a purchase or sale of a security that is discussed in this reportor is included or discussed in another communication (oral or written) from a Deutsche Bank analyst Deutsche Bank mayact as principal for its own account or as agent for another personDeutsche Bank may consider this report in deciding to trade as principal It may also engage in transactions for itsown account or with customers in a manner inconsistent with the views taken in this research report Others withinDeutsche Bank including strategists sales staff and other analysts may take views that are inconsistent with those takenin this research report Deutsche Bank issues a variety of research products including fundamental analysis equity-linkedanalysis quantitative analysis and trade ideas Recommendations contained in one type of communication may differfrom recommendations contained in others whether as a result of differing time horizons methodologies perspectivesor otherwise Deutsche Bank andor its affiliates may also be holding debt or equity securities of the issuers it writeson Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of Deutsche Bank AG and its affiliates which includes investmentbanking trading and principal trading revenuesOpinions estimates and projections constitute the current judgment of the author as of the date of this report They donot necessarily reflect the opinions of Deutsche Bank and are subject to change without notice Deutsche Bank providesliquidity for buyers and sellers of securities issued by the companies it covers Deutsche Bank research analysts sometimeshave shorter-term trade ideas that may be inconsistent with Deutsche Banks existing longer-term ratings Trade ideasfor equities can be found at the SOLAR link at httpgmdbcom A SOLAR idea represents a high-conviction belief by ananalyst that a stock will outperform or underperform the market andor a specified sector over a time frame of no less thantwo weeks and no more than six months In addition to SOLAR ideas analysts may occasionally discuss with our clientsand with Deutsche Bank salespersons and traders trading strategies or ideas that reference catalysts or events that mayhave a near-term or medium-term impact on the market price of the securities discussed in this report which impactmay be directionally counter to the analysts current 12-month view of total return or investment return as describedherein Deutsche Bank has no obligation to update modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a recipient thereofif an opinion forecast or estimate changes or becomes inaccurate Coverage and the frequency of changes in marketconditions and in both general and company-specific economic prospects make it difficult to update research at definedintervals Updates are at the sole discretion of the coverage analyst or of the Research Department Management and themajority of reports are published at irregular intervals This report is provided for informational purposes only and doesnot take into account the particular investment objectives financial situations or needs of individual clients It is not anoffer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategyTarget prices are inherently imprecise and a product of the analyst rsquo s judgment The financial instruments discussedin this report may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own informed investment decisionsPrices and availability of financial instruments are subject to change without notice and investment transactions can leadto losses as a result of price fluctuations and other factors If a financial instrument is denominated in a currency otherthan an investors currency a change in exchange rates may adversely affect the investment Past performance is notnecessarily indicative of future results Performance calculations exclude transaction costs unless otherwise indicatedUnless otherwise indicated prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters Bloomberg and other vendors Data is also sourced from Deutsche Bank subject companies andother partiesThe Deutsche Bank Research Department is independent of other business divisions of the Bank Details regardingorganizational arrangements and information barriers we have established to prevent and avoid conflicts of interest withrespect to our research are available on our website under Disclaimer found on the Legal tab


8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Macroeconomic fluctuations often account for most of the risks associated with exposures to instruments that promiseto pay fixed or variable interest rates For an investor who is long fixed-rate instruments (thus receiving these cashflows) increases in interest rates naturally lift the discount factors applied to the expected cash flows and thuscause a loss The longer the maturity of a certain cash flow and the higher the move in the discount factor thehigher will be the loss Upside surprises in inflation fiscal funding needs and FX depreciation rates are among themost common adverse macroeconomic shocks to receivers But counterparty exposure issuer creditworthiness clientsegmentation regulation (including changes in assets holding limits for different types of investors) changes in taxpolicies currency convertibility (which may constrain currency conversion repatriation of profits andor liquidation ofpositions) and settlement issues related to local clearing houses are also important risk factors The sensitivity of fixed-income instruments to macroeconomic shocks may be mitigated by indexing the contracted cash flows to inflation toFX depreciation or to specified interest rates ndash these are common in emerging markets The index fixings may ndash byconstruction ndash lag or mis-measure the actual move in the underlying variables they are intended to track The choice ofthe proper fixing (or metric) is particularly important in swaps markets where floating coupon rates (ie coupons indexedto a typically short-dated interest rate reference index) are exchanged for fixed coupons Funding in a currency that differsfrom the currency in which coupons are denominated carries FX risk Options on swaps (swaptions) the risks typical tooptions in addition to the risks related to rates movementsDerivative transactions involve numerous risks including market counterparty default and illiquidity risk Theappropriateness of these products for use by investors depends on the investors own circumstances including theirtax position their regulatory environment and the nature of their other assets and liabilities as such investors shouldtake expert legal and financial advice before entering into any transaction similar to or inspired by the contents of thispublication The risk of loss in futures trading and options foreign or domestic can be substantial As a result of thehigh degree of leverage obtainable in futures and options trading losses may be incurred that are greater than theamount of funds initially deposited ndash up to theoretically unlimited losses Trading in options involves risk and is notsuitable for all investors Prior to buying or selling an option investors must review the Characteristics and Risks ofStandardized Optionsrdquo at httpwwwoptionsclearingcomaboutpublicationscharacter-risksjsp If you are unable toaccess the website please contact your Deutsche Bank representative for a copy of this important documentParticipants in foreign exchange transactions may incur risks arising from several factors including (i) exchange rates canbe volatile and are subject to large fluctuations (ii) the value of currencies may be affected by numerous market factorsincluding world and national economic political and regulatory events events in equity and debt markets and changes ininterest rates and (iii) currencies may be subject to devaluation or government-imposed exchange controls which couldaffect the value of the currency Investors in securities such as ADRs whose values are affected by the currency of anunderlying security effectively assume currency riskDeutsche Bank is not acting as a financial adviser consultant or fiduciary to you or any of your agents with respect toany information provided in this report Deutsche Bank does not provide investment legal tax or accounting advice andis not acting as an impartial adviser Information contained herein is being provided on the basis that the recipient willmake an independent assessment of the merits of any investment decision and is not meant for retirement accounts orfor any specific person or account type The information we provide is directed only to persons we believe to be financiallysophisticated who are capable of evaluating investment risks independently both in general and with regard to particulartransactions and investment strategies and who understand that Deutsche Bank has financial interests in the offering ofits products and services If this is not the case or if you or your agent are an IRA or other retail investor receiving thisdirectly from us we ask that you inform us immediately

Unless governing law provides otherwise all transactions should be executed through the Deutsche Bank entity in theinvestors home jurisdiction Aside from within this report important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found athttpsgmdbcom on each company rsquo s research page and under the Disclosures Lookup and Legal tabs Investorsare strongly encouraged to review this information before investing

United States Approved andor distributed by Deutsche Bank Securities Incorporated a member of FINRA NFA and SIPCAnalysts located outside of the United States are employed by non-US affiliates that are not subject to FINRA regulationsincluding those regarding contacts with issuer companies


8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Germany Approved andor distributed by Deutsche Bank AG a joint stock corporation with limited liability incorporatedin the Federal Republic of Germany with its principal office in Frankfurt am Main Deutsche Bank AG is authorized underGerman Banking Law and is subject to supervision by the European Central Bank and by BaFin Germany rsquo s FederalFinancial Supervisory AuthorityUnited Kingdom Approved andor distributed by Deutsche Bank AG acting through its London Branch at WinchesterHouse 1 Great Winchester Street London EC2N 2DB Deutsche Bank AG in the United Kingdom is authorised by thePrudential Regulation Authority and is subject to limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority and FinancialConduct Authority Details about the extent of our authorisation and regulation are available on requestHong Kong Distributed by Deutsche Bank AG Hong Kong Branch or Deutsche Securities Asia LimitedIndia Prepared by Deutsche Equities India Private Limited (DEIPL) having CIN U65990MH2002PTC137431 and registeredoffice at 14th Floor The Capital C-70 G Block Bandra Kurla Complex Mumbai (India) 400051 Tel + 91 22 71804444 It is registered by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) as a Stock broker bearing registrationnos NSE (Capital Market Segment) - INB231196834 NSE (FampO Segment) INF231196834 NSE (Currency DerivativesSegment) INE231196834 BSE (Capital Market Segment) INB011196830 Merchant Banker bearing SEBI Registrationno INM000010833 and Research Analyst bearing SEBI Registration no INH000001741 DEIPL may have receivedadministrative warnings from the SEBI for breaches of Indian regulations Deutsche Bank andor its affiliate(s) mayhave debt holdings or positions in the subject company With regard to information on associates please refer to theldquoShareholdingsrdquo section in the Annual Report at httpswwwdbcomirenannual-reportshtmJapan Approved andor distributed by Deutsche Securities Inc(DSI) Registration number - Registered as a financialinstruments dealer by the Head of the Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Kinsho) No 117 Member of associations JSDA TypeII Financial Instruments Firms Association and The Financial Futures Association of Japan Commissions and risks involvedin stock transactions - for stock transactions we charge stock commissions and consumption tax by multiplying thetransaction amount by the commission rate agreed with each customer Stock transactions can lead to losses as a resultof share price fluctuations and other factors Transactions in foreign stocks can lead to additional losses stemming fromforeign exchange fluctuations We may also charge commissions and fees for certain categories of investment adviceproducts and services Recommended investment strategies products and services carry the risk of losses to principaland other losses as a result of changes in market andor economic trends andor fluctuations in market value Beforedeciding on the purchase of financial products andor services customers should carefully read the relevant disclosuresprospectuses and other documentation Moodys Standard amp Poors and Fitch mentioned in this report are notregistered credit rating agencies in Japan unless Japan or Nippon is specifically designated in the name of the entityReports on Japanese listed companies not written by analysts of DSI are written by Deutsche Bank Groups analysts withthe coverage companies specified by DSI Some of the foreign securities stated on this report are not disclosed accordingto the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law of Japan Target prices set by Deutsche Banks equity analysts are basedon a 12-month forecast periodKorea Distributed by Deutsche Securities Korea CoSouth Africa Deutsche Bank AG Johannesburg is incorporated in the Federal Republic of Germany (Branch RegisterNumber in South Africa 199800329810)Singapore This report is issued by Deutsche Bank AG Singapore Branch or Deutsche Securities Asia Limited SingaporeBranch (One Raffles Quay 18-00 South Tower Singapore 048583 +65 6423 8001) which may be contacted in respectof any matters arising from or in connection with this report Where this report is issued or promulgated by DeutscheBank in Singapore to a person who is not an accredited investor expert investor or institutional investor (as defined in theapplicable Singapore laws and regulations) they accept legal responsibility to such person for its contentsTaiwan Information on securitiesinvestments that trade in Taiwan is for your reference only Readers shouldindependently evaluate investment risks and are solely responsible for their investment decisions Deutsche Bank researchmay not be distributed to the Taiwan public media or quoted or used by the Taiwan public media without written consentInformation on securitiesinstruments that do not trade in Taiwan is for informational purposes only and is not to be


8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

construed as a recommendation to trade in such securitiesinstruments Deutsche Securities Asia Limited Taipei Branchmay not execute transactions for clients in these securitiesinstrumentsQatar Deutsche Bank AG in the Qatar Financial Centre (registered no 00032) is regulated by the Qatar Financial CentreRegulatory Authority Deutsche Bank AG - QFC Branch may undertake only the financial services activities that fall withinthe scope of its existing QFCRA license Its principal place of business in the QFC Qatar Financial Centre Tower WestBay Level 5 PO Box 14928 Doha Qatar This information has been distributed by Deutsche Bank AG Related financialproducts or services are only available only to Business Customers as defined by the Qatar Financial Centre RegulatoryAuthorityRussia The information interpretation and opinions submitted herein are not in the context of and do not constitute anyappraisal or evaluation activity requiring a license in the Russian Federation

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Research

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and QIS Research

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8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Executive summary2018 outlook

We still see opportunitiesAs large-cap manufacturers rallied significantly with only sporadic upwardearnings revisions in 2017 we see fewer opportunities with compelling risk-reward profiles vs YE2016 At present we prefer quality names with a robustpipeline along with mispriced opportunities

For Sino Biopharm we expect the following catalysts four potential blockbusterapprovals improving visibility on its early stage innovative pipeline (TQ series) andbiosimilar pipeline and potential business developmentMampA opportunities ForJointown we expect the following catalysts continuous market-share gain undertwo-invoice outflow of outpatient traffic to lower-tier institutions and outflow ofprescription drugs to drug stores from hospitals As Jointown has 85 revenueexposure in tier 2 and below hospitals the benefits overweigh the limited impactfrom the two-invoice policy As such we believe this is a mispriced opportunityin the midlong term

Anticipate NRDL benefit and rebound of regulatory approvalsWe estimate meaningful benefits from NRDL to materialize on company PampLsfrom 1Q18 as NRDL implementation which started in September 2017 has beendelayed at hospital level We highlight that SBP CSPC and 3SBio have 12 6 and3 drugs newly included in the 2017 NRDL representing about 19 26 and56 of YTD3Q17 revenue respectively

We also expect a rebound of approvals for domestic innovative drugs and FTMSTM generics as available data indicated that only MNCs have taken advantage ofaccelerated approvals from CFDA so far Since the introduction of priority reviewin 2016 a total of 323 applications have been added to the list with 42 and 58from MNCs and local companies respectively Despite the introduction of PRL(priority review list) we have not seen any meaningful FTM generic approvalsuntil this past weekend when three high profile FTMs were approved signalingthe first meaningful domestic approvals since July 2015

Expect widening valuation gap among large-cap namesIn 2H17 the rally of large-cap manufacturers exhibited two distinctive paradigmsincluding the relative valuation to the most expensive comp as well as a hefty butindiscriminate premium on large-cap names only Retrospectively value investingworked as long as one had conviction in pipeline valuation and exposure to thosenames Going into 2018 we see alpha generation on three fronts includingidentifying under-estimated opportunities (such as SBP) miscalculated risks(such as overestimated peak sales of drugs from midsmall companies) andmispriced names (such as Jointown) beyond the obvious intention to chaselaggers including distributors and hospital names


8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



Valuation


Risks



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

















patients

NA

Subtotal






patients

3


dysphagia2






tumor (GIST)

1









intolerance

1



Subtotal



Added to list B 26



Subtotal



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









tumor (GIST)

1


fibrillationNA




Subtotal





patients

2







0


treatmentNA





Subtotal





36


B屶擦IVIG


B屶擦






33


Prothrombin complex




Subtotal



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





43


㳏capIVIG


㳏cap






32


Prothrombin complex




Subtotal



usesNA







restrictionNA




Subtotal



insulin

NA






Subtotal



hospitals

NA



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook







Empagliflozin

Osimertinib

Daclatasvir

Asunaprevir

May-17

Mar-17

Mar-17

Jan-17

Dec-16

Nov-16

Nov-16

Aug-16

May-15

Mar-13

Feb-12

Jul-11

May-10

Jun-09

May-08

01020304050607080

Sep-17

Sep-17

Sep-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Apr-17

Aug-17

Jun-17

Nov-17

Jan-15

Mar-14

Mar-14

Jun-14

Mar-14

Nov-14

Filing time


Approval time

3

1

2

1

5

4

34

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

2014

2015

2016

2017

Domestic MNC



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




Sep-16

Aug-15

Jul-15

May-15

Feb-15

Nov-14

Sep-14

Aug-14

Jun-14

May-14

Apr-14

Apr-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Nov-13

Oct-13

Oct-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Dec-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Jul-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

Mar-12

Jan-12

Nov-11

Jul-11

Mar-11

Jan-11

Dec-10

Nov-10

Sep-10

Mar-10

May-09

Apr-06

020406080100120140

Jun-17

Aug-17

Aug-17

Apr-17

Sep-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Nov-16

Jul-17

Jul-16

Sep-17

Jan-16

Jan-16

Jul-16

Mar-16

Jul-16

Dec-15

Dec-15

Jul-17

Mar-16

Apr-17

Sep-17

Dec-15

Jul-17

Dec-14

Dec-15

Oct-16

Mar-17

Nov-15

Oct-17

May-14

Mar-17

Mar-16

Mar-16

May-17

Oct-14

Aug-17

Oct-14

Jan-14

Feb-15

Oct-15

Nov-16

Filing time


Approval time



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




Apr-16

Apr-16

Dec-15

Dec-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

May-15

Apr-15

Mar-15

Feb-15

Nov-14

Oct-14

Oct-14

Aug-14

Aug-14

Aug-14

Jul-14

Oct-13

Aug-13

May-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Oct-12

Jun-12

Jun-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Mar-12

Oct-11

Oct-11

Jul-11

Jul-11

Apr-11

Apr-11

Mar-11

Mar-11

Nov-10

Oct-08

010203040506070

Aug-17

Mar-17

Nov-16

Mar-17

Aug-16

Oct-16

Jan-16

Jan-16

Nov-16

Aug-15

Jun-15

Oct-16

Dec-16

May-15

May-15

May-15

May-15

Jul-16

Feb-15

Apr-16

Dec-14

Apr-17

May-17

Dec-16

Oct-14

Dec-14

Aug-14

Nov-16

Aug-16

Feb-15

Jul-14

Aug-16

Aug-16

May-16

Mar-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-14

Jan-14

Filing time


Approval time



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





SBP






injection




injection











bound)



CSPC


Tablets









bound)




tablets






8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





Hengrui












SBP









CSPC







8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





5545

106103

10

4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2016 YTD Nov17


63

373734

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2016 YTD Nov17

Domestic MNCs




42

3532

14 13 12 118

4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




Province city

(EN)

Province city

(CN)

Recent

announcement

Status of





































8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

-

5

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E








8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook






2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E


YoY grow th -35 -108 -181 -270 -250 -230 -210 -180 -150 -120


YoY grow th 406 357 194 53 -40 -60 -80 -120 -150 -150


YoY grow th 1611 1297 867 600 300 200 50 -50 -50


YoY grow th 2167 263 167 71 67


YoY grow th 3750 684 500


YoY grow th 286 266 166 66 52 72 54 120 53 88


YoY grow th 105 193 10 60 60 50 40 30 20 20


YoY grow th 210 238 109 64 55 65 49 91 43 68


YoY grow th 44 89 -22 -05 50 41 38 30 30 30


YoY grow th 187 220 95 57 55 62 48 85 42 65



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




(RMBm)

Probability of

success (low

end)

Probability of

success (high

end)

Value per share

(prob adjusted

RMB)

Value per share

(prob adjusted HKD)




Subtotal

Generic drugs
















Subtotal

Total


















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook
























8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Jointown



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue YoYRMB bn

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E








8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



0

10

20

30

0

400

800

1200

1600

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1H16 1H17


687 689 688 690 688 684 681

247 237 233 227 225 225 225

66 74 79 83 87 91 94

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1H17






0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E



148

all other terminal

markets 852



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




12x 12x

8x

20x

8x

12x

18x

13x

29x

17x

0x

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x


EVEBITDA ftm PE ftm

Weighted Avg

PE 16x

Weighted Avg

EVEBITDA 11x

0x

20x

40x

60x

80x

EVEBITDA ftm PE ftm




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Universal Medical




327

2009

3802

5016

13 113 212 308

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E


9

32

4244

1

7 10

13

0

10

20

30

40

50

2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue Net profit







8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue Net profit


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



6-Dec














1530HK 3SBio Buy 178 141 159 72 4594 36 29 24 CNY 28 28 20 23 20 17 52 16 12







37 30 25 13 31 19 25 20 16 24 21 18

Plasma products



31 26 23 9 16 10 22 19 17 3 15 11

HC services






51 36 29 11 39 27 24 19 16 21 30 20




14 12 11 14 14 14 9 8 7 26 15 14


4543T Terumo Hold 4700 5270 5400 3855 17755 37 32 27 JPY 5 17 15 17 15 9 0 10 9

6869T Sysmex Buy 9800 8380 8640 6100 15517 42 37 33 JPY 3 14 14 23 21 9 13 10 11


36 31 28 14 13 12 17 16 10 8 9 9

Rating Target

Price (LC)

52-week Mkt cap




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22


14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21





10

15

20

25

30

35


16

19

22

25

28

31

34

37




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





-33

-25

-19

-18

-6

-4

3

11

12

13

16

17

22

30

39

63

82

89

97

98

31

40

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

SHANGHAI FUDAN-H

TONG REN TANG-H

CHINA SHINEWAY

CHINA PIONEER PH

DAWNRAYS PHARMAC

SINOPHARM-H

LEES PHARM

SHANGHAI PHARM-H

Universal Medical

GUANGZHOU BAIYUN

CHINA TRADITIONA

THE UNITED LABOR

SIHUAN PHARM

CHINA MEDICAL SY

BLOOMAGE BIOTE

SHANGHAI FOSUN-H

CONSUN PHARMACEU

CSPC PHARMACEUTI

SINO BIOPHARM

3SBIO INC

HSI

MSCI China HC

-51

-39

-35

-31

-24

-23

-23

-22

-11

-9

0

3

5

6

6

7

8

13

23

24

0

-6

-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30

SIHUAN PHARM

BLOOMAGE BIOTE

LEES PHARM

CHINA TRADITIONA

CONSUN PHARMACEU

SINO BIOPHARM

DAWNRAYS PHARMAC

SHANGHAI FUDAN-H

CHINA SHINEWAY

GUANGZHOU BAIYUN

CHINA PIONEER PH

SINOPHARM-H

CSPC PHARMACEUTI

SHANGHAI FOSUN-H

SHANGHAI PHARM-H

Universal Medical

CHINA MEDICAL SY

TONG REN TANG-H

THE UNITED LABOR

LIJUN INTL PHARM

HSI

MSCI China HC





-32

-22

-20

-18

-13

-12

-11

-11

-11

-9

-9

3

3

8

19

21

24

31

40

42

51

71

78

21

18

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

HARBIN PHARMA-A

HUALAN BIOLOGI-A

NANJING PHARMA-A

NORTH CHINA PH-A

TOPCHOICE MEDI-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

TASLY PHARMAC-A

JOINTOWN PHARM-A

HUMANWELL HEAL-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

YUNNAN BAIYAO-A

CHINA RESOURCE-A

BEIJING TONGRE-A

ZHEJIANG HISUN-A

KANGMEI PHARMA-A

TONGHUA DONGBA-A

SHANGHAI PHARM-A

CHINA MEHECO C-A

HUADONG MEDICI-A

AIER EYE HSPTL-A

SICHUAN KELUN-A

SHANGHAI FOSUN-A

JIANGSU HENGRU-A

CSI300

MSCI A China HC

-32

-30

-27

-24

-21

-17

-13

-12

-10

-9

-7

-5

-3

-2

-1

1

1

5

5

6

11

14

30

-11

-16

-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

TOPCHOICE MEDI-A

BEIJING TONGRE-A

NORTH CHINA PH-A

NANJING PHARMA-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

ZHEJIANG HISUN-A

SICHUAN KELUN-A

HUADONG MEDICI-A

HUMANWELL HEAL-A

CHINA RESOURCE-A

HARBIN PHARMA-A

AIER EYE HSPTL-A

TONGHUA DONGBA-A

SHANGHAI PHARM-A

SHANGHAI FOSUN-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

TASLY PHARMAC-A

YUNNAN BAIYAO-A

KANGMEI PHARMA-A

JOINTOWN PHARM-A

JIANGSU HENGRU-A

CHINA MEHECO C-A

HUALAN BIOLOGI-A

CSI300

MSCI A China HC



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




-25

44

55

155

167

18

30

64

-05 0 05 1 15 2

CHINA BIOLOGIC

ZLAB

ATHENEX

HCM

BEIGENE

SampP 500 Index

NASDAQ Index

MSCI US HC



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




0

7

31

15

18

28

18

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45


STOXX Europe

HSI


TOPIX


SampP 500

MSCI China HC

-4

-1

0

-6

-2

5

10

-6

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12


STOXX Europe

HSI


TOPIX


SampP 500

MSCI China HC




5

7

31

9

18

9

18

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

MSCI Europe Pharma

STOXX Europe

HSI

TOPIX Pharma

TOPIX

SampP 500 Pharma

SampP 500

MSCI China HC

-12

-1

0

-11

-2

-4

10

-6

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

MSCI Europe Pharma

STOXX Europe

HSI

TOPIX Pharma

TOPIX

SampP 500 Pharma

SampP 500

MSCI China HC





1099HK Sinopharm 04 04 03 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 05 05 06 06 05 05 05 04 04 03

1093HK CSPC 02 02 03 03 03 04 05 05 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 06

1177HK Sino Biopharm 03 03 03 04 03 04 03 03 03 05 04 04 03 03 03 03 03 03 04



0241HK Ali Health 02 02 01 01 01 01

1066HK Weigao 02 03 02 03 03 03 02 02 02 01 02 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01

1530HK 3SBio 01 01 01 01 01 01 01

2196HK Fosun Pharma 02 02 02 01 01 02 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 02

2186HK Luye Pharma 01 02 02 01 01

0460HK Sihuan 01 02 02 03 03 03 04 03 03 02 01 01 01



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




Application

registration no


time

Key competitors







injection













capsules


(injection)





















ChiCTR-IIR-

17012724






Pharma


tablets









8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors




⋩༽ਸ㜲䍘փ









˅



injection




chloride injection

㗏҉ส㊹13004≟䫐

ሴ









Topfond




Baiyunshan



Zhonghe Pharma


including Haisun


Tongrentang



Baiyunshan


Zhengyuan Pharma





Ṭሴ






Tablets (II)



Tablets (I)





compound tablets





Hengrui


release tablets (I)









8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors







Tianjin Pharma






Livzon


release capsules





Injection



Pharma (injection)



Baike Pharma



release tablets

















(Ċ)





(I)





coated capsuless




tablets



Onbrez

Breezhaler



tablets


reaction



capsules





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors






ゃ








oxide injection


ゃ









Haisun Forward


Qilu


capsules


Hengrui


(injection)







Huapont






擦(娜把鰭)




Kanghong Pharma



powder spray


蜮擦




induced nausea amp

vomiting













8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


registration no


time

Key competitors








Hengrui


Haiwangfu Pharma


injection


Hengrui




Medco




䞨


Haisun


Pharmaceutical



㗏҉ส㊹20005≟䫐

ሴ



ChaseSun


Qilu Pharma


Lingnan Pharma







injection




Lunan Pharma








Pharma Beilu Pharma












8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Hengrui Medicine




registration no


time

Key competitors


Pharma



bound)

˄

ර˅









Qilu


Baike Pharma





capsules









release tablets




chloride Injection










thrombocytopenia



acid for injection










injection






diseases






8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors





(injection)




Pharma













Pharma


coated Tablets








Tiancheng Pharma


Kanghong Pharma













condyloma

acuminatum

leukemia oncology



release cream













pound(16)B屶ゃ






ゃ




ゃ






8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


registration no


time

Key competitors















rejection reaction




tablets


rejection reaction












吿暗娩さ913004翰俉155660侷

頻B屶ゃ



tablets (I)



tablets (II)



tablets (III)






Wansheng Pharma








hypertension



perfusion)


B49)








Opthealmic Solution






induced nausea

vomiting




Pharma Luyin Pharma





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


registration no


time

Key competitors


inhalation


Breezhaler





for inhalation


Neohaler




Lunan Pharma




Emulsion Injection


Pharma





Pharma (injection)





betamethasone gel





䍘ሴ




powder


Neohaler





capsules





hypertension







Diskus





injection














8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

CSPC




Application

registration no


time

Key competitors





bound)

˄ර˅










Pharma Yangzi River


Injection




Chloride Injection



Shixin Pharma



ChaseSun






Dawnrays



injection


ሴ



Baike Pharma


SBP




≰䫉




injection









8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors



Pharma Sinopharm




Pharma
















Hansoh


Livzon



Qilu






Ruiyang Pharma


rejection reaction








Chengyi Pharma Puli

Pharma





SBP


Huahai Pharma






Hansoh Jutai Pharma










arthritis




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors































Wansheng Pharma


CR Double Crane



SBP











Icircα2aB屶ゃ







(emulsion)


Pharmaceutical









supplements


review

11132014 NA





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

3SBio






















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Tonghua Dongbao




registration no


time

Key competitors




including Hansoh




















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Fosun Pharma




registration no


time







SinoCelltech








Ther Hisun


Zhejiang Haizheng


Bio-Thera

and BJ Mabworks


Wanbang

NA


Jiangsu Wanbang

NA


targeting mAb




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Sihuan Pharma





Status start



including Salubris





Pharma



Sailike Pharma


(injection)





ASK Pharma




















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


















Ritonavir































8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook






Conjugate Vaccine




vaccine














8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




































8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance



10

25

5

75

125

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E175

20225

25275

30



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

10

20

30

40

23

24

25

26

27

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E-20

-15

-10

-5

0

0

200

400

600

800











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance


Jan 16 Jan 17Jul 16 Jul 17456789

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E30

35

40

45

50



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

25

50

75

100

15

20

25

10

30

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

200

400

600











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance


Jan 16 Jan 17Jul 16 Jul 17304050607080

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E

30

20

225

25

275



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

10

20

30

40

21

22

23

24

25

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E-60

-40

-20

0











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance



15

20

25

10

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E

25

3

35

2

4



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

1020304050

789101112

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

10

20

30

40

28

3

32

26

34











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Appendix 1















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


(as of 12072017)



Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1 23

45 6 7 8 9

10

11

12


2000

4000

6000

8000

10000



(as of 12072017)



Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1 23

45 6


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


(as of 12072017)



Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1

23 4 5 6 7 8

910 11 12

13

14

15


250

500

750

1000

1250

1500







Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1 2


1000

250

500

750



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook






Research







Equity Research


Equity Research





and QIS Research








8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



Valuation


Risks



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

















patients

NA

Subtotal






patients

3


dysphagia2






tumor (GIST)

1









intolerance

1



Subtotal



Added to list B 26



Subtotal



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









tumor (GIST)

1


fibrillationNA




Subtotal





patients

2







0


treatmentNA





Subtotal





36


B屶擦IVIG


B屶擦






33


Prothrombin complex




Subtotal



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





43


㳏capIVIG


㳏cap






32


Prothrombin complex




Subtotal



usesNA







restrictionNA




Subtotal



insulin

NA






Subtotal



hospitals

NA



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook







Empagliflozin

Osimertinib

Daclatasvir

Asunaprevir

May-17

Mar-17

Mar-17

Jan-17

Dec-16

Nov-16

Nov-16

Aug-16

May-15

Mar-13

Feb-12

Jul-11

May-10

Jun-09

May-08

01020304050607080

Sep-17

Sep-17

Sep-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Apr-17

Aug-17

Jun-17

Nov-17

Jan-15

Mar-14

Mar-14

Jun-14

Mar-14

Nov-14

Filing time


Approval time

3

1

2

1

5

4

34

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

2014

2015

2016

2017

Domestic MNC



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




Sep-16

Aug-15

Jul-15

May-15

Feb-15

Nov-14

Sep-14

Aug-14

Jun-14

May-14

Apr-14

Apr-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Nov-13

Oct-13

Oct-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Dec-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Jul-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

Mar-12

Jan-12

Nov-11

Jul-11

Mar-11

Jan-11

Dec-10

Nov-10

Sep-10

Mar-10

May-09

Apr-06

020406080100120140

Jun-17

Aug-17

Aug-17

Apr-17

Sep-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Nov-16

Jul-17

Jul-16

Sep-17

Jan-16

Jan-16

Jul-16

Mar-16

Jul-16

Dec-15

Dec-15

Jul-17

Mar-16

Apr-17

Sep-17

Dec-15

Jul-17

Dec-14

Dec-15

Oct-16

Mar-17

Nov-15

Oct-17

May-14

Mar-17

Mar-16

Mar-16

May-17

Oct-14

Aug-17

Oct-14

Jan-14

Feb-15

Oct-15

Nov-16

Filing time


Approval time



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




Apr-16

Apr-16

Dec-15

Dec-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

May-15

Apr-15

Mar-15

Feb-15

Nov-14

Oct-14

Oct-14

Aug-14

Aug-14

Aug-14

Jul-14

Oct-13

Aug-13

May-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Oct-12

Jun-12

Jun-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Mar-12

Oct-11

Oct-11

Jul-11

Jul-11

Apr-11

Apr-11

Mar-11

Mar-11

Nov-10

Oct-08

010203040506070

Aug-17

Mar-17

Nov-16

Mar-17

Aug-16

Oct-16

Jan-16

Jan-16

Nov-16

Aug-15

Jun-15

Oct-16

Dec-16

May-15

May-15

May-15

May-15

Jul-16

Feb-15

Apr-16

Dec-14

Apr-17

May-17

Dec-16

Oct-14

Dec-14

Aug-14

Nov-16

Aug-16

Feb-15

Jul-14

Aug-16

Aug-16

May-16

Mar-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-14

Jan-14

Filing time


Approval time



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





SBP






injection




injection











bound)



CSPC


Tablets









bound)




tablets






8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





Hengrui












SBP









CSPC







8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





5545

106103

10

4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2016 YTD Nov17


63

373734

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2016 YTD Nov17

Domestic MNCs




42

3532

14 13 12 118

4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




Province city

(EN)

Province city

(CN)

Recent

announcement

Status of





































8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

-

5

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E








8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook






2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E


YoY grow th -35 -108 -181 -270 -250 -230 -210 -180 -150 -120


YoY grow th 406 357 194 53 -40 -60 -80 -120 -150 -150


YoY grow th 1611 1297 867 600 300 200 50 -50 -50


YoY grow th 2167 263 167 71 67


YoY grow th 3750 684 500


YoY grow th 286 266 166 66 52 72 54 120 53 88


YoY grow th 105 193 10 60 60 50 40 30 20 20


YoY grow th 210 238 109 64 55 65 49 91 43 68


YoY grow th 44 89 -22 -05 50 41 38 30 30 30


YoY grow th 187 220 95 57 55 62 48 85 42 65



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




(RMBm)

Probability of

success (low

end)

Probability of

success (high

end)

Value per share

(prob adjusted

RMB)

Value per share

(prob adjusted HKD)




Subtotal

Generic drugs
















Subtotal

Total


















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook
























8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Jointown



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue YoYRMB bn

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E








8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



0

10

20

30

0

400

800

1200

1600

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1H16 1H17


687 689 688 690 688 684 681

247 237 233 227 225 225 225

66 74 79 83 87 91 94

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1H17






0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E



148

all other terminal

markets 852



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




12x 12x

8x

20x

8x

12x

18x

13x

29x

17x

0x

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x


EVEBITDA ftm PE ftm

Weighted Avg

PE 16x

Weighted Avg

EVEBITDA 11x

0x

20x

40x

60x

80x

EVEBITDA ftm PE ftm




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Universal Medical




327

2009

3802

5016

13 113 212 308

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E


9

32

4244

1

7 10

13

0

10

20

30

40

50

2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue Net profit







8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue Net profit


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



6-Dec














1530HK 3SBio Buy 178 141 159 72 4594 36 29 24 CNY 28 28 20 23 20 17 52 16 12







37 30 25 13 31 19 25 20 16 24 21 18

Plasma products



31 26 23 9 16 10 22 19 17 3 15 11

HC services






51 36 29 11 39 27 24 19 16 21 30 20




14 12 11 14 14 14 9 8 7 26 15 14


4543T Terumo Hold 4700 5270 5400 3855 17755 37 32 27 JPY 5 17 15 17 15 9 0 10 9

6869T Sysmex Buy 9800 8380 8640 6100 15517 42 37 33 JPY 3 14 14 23 21 9 13 10 11


36 31 28 14 13 12 17 16 10 8 9 9

Rating Target

Price (LC)

52-week Mkt cap




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22


14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21





10

15

20

25

30

35


16

19

22

25

28

31

34

37




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





-33

-25

-19

-18

-6

-4

3

11

12

13

16

17

22

30

39

63

82

89

97

98

31

40

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

SHANGHAI FUDAN-H

TONG REN TANG-H

CHINA SHINEWAY

CHINA PIONEER PH

DAWNRAYS PHARMAC

SINOPHARM-H

LEES PHARM

SHANGHAI PHARM-H

Universal Medical

GUANGZHOU BAIYUN

CHINA TRADITIONA

THE UNITED LABOR

SIHUAN PHARM

CHINA MEDICAL SY

BLOOMAGE BIOTE

SHANGHAI FOSUN-H

CONSUN PHARMACEU

CSPC PHARMACEUTI

SINO BIOPHARM

3SBIO INC

HSI

MSCI China HC

-51

-39

-35

-31

-24

-23

-23

-22

-11

-9

0

3

5

6

6

7

8

13

23

24

0

-6

-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30

SIHUAN PHARM

BLOOMAGE BIOTE

LEES PHARM

CHINA TRADITIONA

CONSUN PHARMACEU

SINO BIOPHARM

DAWNRAYS PHARMAC

SHANGHAI FUDAN-H

CHINA SHINEWAY

GUANGZHOU BAIYUN

CHINA PIONEER PH

SINOPHARM-H

CSPC PHARMACEUTI

SHANGHAI FOSUN-H

SHANGHAI PHARM-H

Universal Medical

CHINA MEDICAL SY

TONG REN TANG-H

THE UNITED LABOR

LIJUN INTL PHARM

HSI

MSCI China HC





-32

-22

-20

-18

-13

-12

-11

-11

-11

-9

-9

3

3

8

19

21

24

31

40

42

51

71

78

21

18

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

HARBIN PHARMA-A

HUALAN BIOLOGI-A

NANJING PHARMA-A

NORTH CHINA PH-A

TOPCHOICE MEDI-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

TASLY PHARMAC-A

JOINTOWN PHARM-A

HUMANWELL HEAL-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

YUNNAN BAIYAO-A

CHINA RESOURCE-A

BEIJING TONGRE-A

ZHEJIANG HISUN-A

KANGMEI PHARMA-A

TONGHUA DONGBA-A

SHANGHAI PHARM-A

CHINA MEHECO C-A

HUADONG MEDICI-A

AIER EYE HSPTL-A

SICHUAN KELUN-A

SHANGHAI FOSUN-A

JIANGSU HENGRU-A

CSI300

MSCI A China HC

-32

-30

-27

-24

-21

-17

-13

-12

-10

-9

-7

-5

-3

-2

-1

1

1

5

5

6

11

14

30

-11

-16

-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

TOPCHOICE MEDI-A

BEIJING TONGRE-A

NORTH CHINA PH-A

NANJING PHARMA-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

ZHEJIANG HISUN-A

SICHUAN KELUN-A

HUADONG MEDICI-A

HUMANWELL HEAL-A

CHINA RESOURCE-A

HARBIN PHARMA-A

AIER EYE HSPTL-A

TONGHUA DONGBA-A

SHANGHAI PHARM-A

SHANGHAI FOSUN-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

TASLY PHARMAC-A

YUNNAN BAIYAO-A

KANGMEI PHARMA-A

JOINTOWN PHARM-A

JIANGSU HENGRU-A

CHINA MEHECO C-A

HUALAN BIOLOGI-A

CSI300

MSCI A China HC



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




-25

44

55

155

167

18

30

64

-05 0 05 1 15 2

CHINA BIOLOGIC

ZLAB

ATHENEX

HCM

BEIGENE

SampP 500 Index

NASDAQ Index

MSCI US HC



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




0

7

31

15

18

28

18

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45


STOXX Europe

HSI


TOPIX


SampP 500

MSCI China HC

-4

-1

0

-6

-2

5

10

-6

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12


STOXX Europe

HSI


TOPIX


SampP 500

MSCI China HC




5

7

31

9

18

9

18

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

MSCI Europe Pharma

STOXX Europe

HSI

TOPIX Pharma

TOPIX

SampP 500 Pharma

SampP 500

MSCI China HC

-12

-1

0

-11

-2

-4

10

-6

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

MSCI Europe Pharma

STOXX Europe

HSI

TOPIX Pharma

TOPIX

SampP 500 Pharma

SampP 500

MSCI China HC





1099HK Sinopharm 04 04 03 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 05 05 06 06 05 05 05 04 04 03

1093HK CSPC 02 02 03 03 03 04 05 05 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 06

1177HK Sino Biopharm 03 03 03 04 03 04 03 03 03 05 04 04 03 03 03 03 03 03 04



0241HK Ali Health 02 02 01 01 01 01

1066HK Weigao 02 03 02 03 03 03 02 02 02 01 02 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01

1530HK 3SBio 01 01 01 01 01 01 01

2196HK Fosun Pharma 02 02 02 01 01 02 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 02

2186HK Luye Pharma 01 02 02 01 01

0460HK Sihuan 01 02 02 03 03 03 04 03 03 02 01 01 01



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




Application

registration no


time

Key competitors







injection













capsules


(injection)





















ChiCTR-IIR-

17012724






Pharma


tablets









8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors




⋩༽ਸ㜲䍘փ









˅



injection




chloride injection

㗏҉ส㊹13004≟䫐

ሴ









Topfond




Baiyunshan



Zhonghe Pharma


including Haisun


Tongrentang



Baiyunshan


Zhengyuan Pharma





Ṭሴ






Tablets (II)



Tablets (I)





compound tablets





Hengrui


release tablets (I)









8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors







Tianjin Pharma






Livzon


release capsules





Injection



Pharma (injection)



Baike Pharma



release tablets

















(Ċ)





(I)





coated capsuless




tablets



Onbrez

Breezhaler



tablets


reaction



capsules





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors






ゃ








oxide injection


ゃ









Haisun Forward


Qilu


capsules


Hengrui


(injection)







Huapont






擦(娜把鰭)




Kanghong Pharma



powder spray


蜮擦




induced nausea amp

vomiting













8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


registration no


time

Key competitors








Hengrui


Haiwangfu Pharma


injection


Hengrui




Medco




䞨


Haisun


Pharmaceutical



㗏҉ส㊹20005≟䫐

ሴ



ChaseSun


Qilu Pharma


Lingnan Pharma







injection




Lunan Pharma








Pharma Beilu Pharma












8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Hengrui Medicine




registration no


time

Key competitors


Pharma



bound)

˄

ර˅









Qilu


Baike Pharma





capsules









release tablets




chloride Injection










thrombocytopenia



acid for injection










injection






diseases






8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors





(injection)




Pharma













Pharma


coated Tablets








Tiancheng Pharma


Kanghong Pharma













condyloma

acuminatum

leukemia oncology



release cream













pound(16)B屶ゃ






ゃ




ゃ






8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


registration no


time

Key competitors















rejection reaction




tablets


rejection reaction












吿暗娩さ913004翰俉155660侷

頻B屶ゃ



tablets (I)



tablets (II)



tablets (III)






Wansheng Pharma








hypertension



perfusion)


B49)








Opthealmic Solution






induced nausea

vomiting




Pharma Luyin Pharma





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


registration no


time

Key competitors


inhalation


Breezhaler





for inhalation


Neohaler




Lunan Pharma




Emulsion Injection


Pharma





Pharma (injection)





betamethasone gel





䍘ሴ




powder


Neohaler





capsules





hypertension







Diskus





injection














8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

CSPC




Application

registration no


time

Key competitors





bound)

˄ර˅










Pharma Yangzi River


Injection




Chloride Injection



Shixin Pharma



ChaseSun






Dawnrays



injection


ሴ



Baike Pharma


SBP




≰䫉




injection









8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors



Pharma Sinopharm




Pharma
















Hansoh


Livzon



Qilu






Ruiyang Pharma


rejection reaction








Chengyi Pharma Puli

Pharma





SBP


Huahai Pharma






Hansoh Jutai Pharma










arthritis




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors































Wansheng Pharma


CR Double Crane



SBP











Icircα2aB屶ゃ







(emulsion)


Pharmaceutical









supplements


review

11132014 NA





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

3SBio






















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Tonghua Dongbao




registration no


time

Key competitors




including Hansoh




















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Fosun Pharma




registration no


time







SinoCelltech








Ther Hisun


Zhejiang Haizheng


Bio-Thera

and BJ Mabworks


Wanbang

NA


Jiangsu Wanbang

NA


targeting mAb




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Sihuan Pharma





Status start



including Salubris





Pharma



Sailike Pharma


(injection)





ASK Pharma




















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


















Ritonavir































8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook






Conjugate Vaccine




vaccine














8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




































8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance



10

25

5

75

125

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E175

20225

25275

30



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

10

20

30

40

23

24

25

26

27

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E-20

-15

-10

-5

0

0

200

400

600

800











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance


Jan 16 Jan 17Jul 16 Jul 17456789

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E30

35

40

45

50



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

25

50

75

100

15

20

25

10

30

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

200

400

600











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance


Jan 16 Jan 17Jul 16 Jul 17304050607080

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E

30

20

225

25

275



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

10

20

30

40

21

22

23

24

25

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E-60

-40

-20

0











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance



15

20

25

10

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E

25

3

35

2

4



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

1020304050

789101112

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

10

20

30

40

28

3

32

26

34











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Appendix 1















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


(as of 12072017)



Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1 23

45 6 7 8 9

10

11

12


2000

4000

6000

8000

10000



(as of 12072017)



Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1 23

45 6


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


(as of 12072017)



Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1

23 4 5 6 7 8

910 11 12

13

14

15


250

500

750

1000

1250

1500







Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1 2


1000

250

500

750



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook






Research







Equity Research


Equity Research





and QIS Research








8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

















patients

NA

Subtotal






patients

3


dysphagia2






tumor (GIST)

1









intolerance

1



Subtotal



Added to list B 26



Subtotal



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









tumor (GIST)

1


fibrillationNA




Subtotal





patients

2







0


treatmentNA





Subtotal





36


B屶擦IVIG


B屶擦






33


Prothrombin complex




Subtotal



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





43


㳏capIVIG


㳏cap






32


Prothrombin complex




Subtotal



usesNA







restrictionNA




Subtotal



insulin

NA






Subtotal



hospitals

NA



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook







Empagliflozin

Osimertinib

Daclatasvir

Asunaprevir

May-17

Mar-17

Mar-17

Jan-17

Dec-16

Nov-16

Nov-16

Aug-16

May-15

Mar-13

Feb-12

Jul-11

May-10

Jun-09

May-08

01020304050607080

Sep-17

Sep-17

Sep-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Apr-17

Aug-17

Jun-17

Nov-17

Jan-15

Mar-14

Mar-14

Jun-14

Mar-14

Nov-14

Filing time


Approval time

3

1

2

1

5

4

34

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

2014

2015

2016

2017

Domestic MNC



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




Sep-16

Aug-15

Jul-15

May-15

Feb-15

Nov-14

Sep-14

Aug-14

Jun-14

May-14

Apr-14

Apr-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Nov-13

Oct-13

Oct-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Dec-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Jul-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

Mar-12

Jan-12

Nov-11

Jul-11

Mar-11

Jan-11

Dec-10

Nov-10

Sep-10

Mar-10

May-09

Apr-06

020406080100120140

Jun-17

Aug-17

Aug-17

Apr-17

Sep-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Nov-16

Jul-17

Jul-16

Sep-17

Jan-16

Jan-16

Jul-16

Mar-16

Jul-16

Dec-15

Dec-15

Jul-17

Mar-16

Apr-17

Sep-17

Dec-15

Jul-17

Dec-14

Dec-15

Oct-16

Mar-17

Nov-15

Oct-17

May-14

Mar-17

Mar-16

Mar-16

May-17

Oct-14

Aug-17

Oct-14

Jan-14

Feb-15

Oct-15

Nov-16

Filing time


Approval time



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




Apr-16

Apr-16

Dec-15

Dec-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

May-15

Apr-15

Mar-15

Feb-15

Nov-14

Oct-14

Oct-14

Aug-14

Aug-14

Aug-14

Jul-14

Oct-13

Aug-13

May-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Oct-12

Jun-12

Jun-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Mar-12

Oct-11

Oct-11

Jul-11

Jul-11

Apr-11

Apr-11

Mar-11

Mar-11

Nov-10

Oct-08

010203040506070

Aug-17

Mar-17

Nov-16

Mar-17

Aug-16

Oct-16

Jan-16

Jan-16

Nov-16

Aug-15

Jun-15

Oct-16

Dec-16

May-15

May-15

May-15

May-15

Jul-16

Feb-15

Apr-16

Dec-14

Apr-17

May-17

Dec-16

Oct-14

Dec-14

Aug-14

Nov-16

Aug-16

Feb-15

Jul-14

Aug-16

Aug-16

May-16

Mar-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-14

Jan-14

Filing time


Approval time



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





SBP






injection




injection











bound)



CSPC


Tablets









bound)




tablets






8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





Hengrui












SBP









CSPC







8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





5545

106103

10

4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2016 YTD Nov17


63

373734

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2016 YTD Nov17

Domestic MNCs




42

3532

14 13 12 118

4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




Province city

(EN)

Province city

(CN)

Recent

announcement

Status of





































8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

-

5

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E








8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook






2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E


YoY grow th -35 -108 -181 -270 -250 -230 -210 -180 -150 -120


YoY grow th 406 357 194 53 -40 -60 -80 -120 -150 -150


YoY grow th 1611 1297 867 600 300 200 50 -50 -50


YoY grow th 2167 263 167 71 67


YoY grow th 3750 684 500


YoY grow th 286 266 166 66 52 72 54 120 53 88


YoY grow th 105 193 10 60 60 50 40 30 20 20


YoY grow th 210 238 109 64 55 65 49 91 43 68


YoY grow th 44 89 -22 -05 50 41 38 30 30 30


YoY grow th 187 220 95 57 55 62 48 85 42 65



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




(RMBm)

Probability of

success (low

end)

Probability of

success (high

end)

Value per share

(prob adjusted

RMB)

Value per share

(prob adjusted HKD)




Subtotal

Generic drugs
















Subtotal

Total


















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook
























8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Jointown



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue YoYRMB bn

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E








8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



0

10

20

30

0

400

800

1200

1600

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1H16 1H17


687 689 688 690 688 684 681

247 237 233 227 225 225 225

66 74 79 83 87 91 94

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1H17






0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E



148

all other terminal

markets 852



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




12x 12x

8x

20x

8x

12x

18x

13x

29x

17x

0x

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x


EVEBITDA ftm PE ftm

Weighted Avg

PE 16x

Weighted Avg

EVEBITDA 11x

0x

20x

40x

60x

80x

EVEBITDA ftm PE ftm




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Universal Medical




327

2009

3802

5016

13 113 212 308

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E


9

32

4244

1

7 10

13

0

10

20

30

40

50

2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue Net profit







8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue Net profit


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



6-Dec














1530HK 3SBio Buy 178 141 159 72 4594 36 29 24 CNY 28 28 20 23 20 17 52 16 12







37 30 25 13 31 19 25 20 16 24 21 18

Plasma products



31 26 23 9 16 10 22 19 17 3 15 11

HC services






51 36 29 11 39 27 24 19 16 21 30 20




14 12 11 14 14 14 9 8 7 26 15 14


4543T Terumo Hold 4700 5270 5400 3855 17755 37 32 27 JPY 5 17 15 17 15 9 0 10 9

6869T Sysmex Buy 9800 8380 8640 6100 15517 42 37 33 JPY 3 14 14 23 21 9 13 10 11


36 31 28 14 13 12 17 16 10 8 9 9

Rating Target

Price (LC)

52-week Mkt cap




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22


14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21





10

15

20

25

30

35


16

19

22

25

28

31

34

37




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





-33

-25

-19

-18

-6

-4

3

11

12

13

16

17

22

30

39

63

82

89

97

98

31

40

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

SHANGHAI FUDAN-H

TONG REN TANG-H

CHINA SHINEWAY

CHINA PIONEER PH

DAWNRAYS PHARMAC

SINOPHARM-H

LEES PHARM

SHANGHAI PHARM-H

Universal Medical

GUANGZHOU BAIYUN

CHINA TRADITIONA

THE UNITED LABOR

SIHUAN PHARM

CHINA MEDICAL SY

BLOOMAGE BIOTE

SHANGHAI FOSUN-H

CONSUN PHARMACEU

CSPC PHARMACEUTI

SINO BIOPHARM

3SBIO INC

HSI

MSCI China HC

-51

-39

-35

-31

-24

-23

-23

-22

-11

-9

0

3

5

6

6

7

8

13

23

24

0

-6

-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30

SIHUAN PHARM

BLOOMAGE BIOTE

LEES PHARM

CHINA TRADITIONA

CONSUN PHARMACEU

SINO BIOPHARM

DAWNRAYS PHARMAC

SHANGHAI FUDAN-H

CHINA SHINEWAY

GUANGZHOU BAIYUN

CHINA PIONEER PH

SINOPHARM-H

CSPC PHARMACEUTI

SHANGHAI FOSUN-H

SHANGHAI PHARM-H

Universal Medical

CHINA MEDICAL SY

TONG REN TANG-H

THE UNITED LABOR

LIJUN INTL PHARM

HSI

MSCI China HC





-32

-22

-20

-18

-13

-12

-11

-11

-11

-9

-9

3

3

8

19

21

24

31

40

42

51

71

78

21

18

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

HARBIN PHARMA-A

HUALAN BIOLOGI-A

NANJING PHARMA-A

NORTH CHINA PH-A

TOPCHOICE MEDI-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

TASLY PHARMAC-A

JOINTOWN PHARM-A

HUMANWELL HEAL-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

YUNNAN BAIYAO-A

CHINA RESOURCE-A

BEIJING TONGRE-A

ZHEJIANG HISUN-A

KANGMEI PHARMA-A

TONGHUA DONGBA-A

SHANGHAI PHARM-A

CHINA MEHECO C-A

HUADONG MEDICI-A

AIER EYE HSPTL-A

SICHUAN KELUN-A

SHANGHAI FOSUN-A

JIANGSU HENGRU-A

CSI300

MSCI A China HC

-32

-30

-27

-24

-21

-17

-13

-12

-10

-9

-7

-5

-3

-2

-1

1

1

5

5

6

11

14

30

-11

-16

-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

TOPCHOICE MEDI-A

BEIJING TONGRE-A

NORTH CHINA PH-A

NANJING PHARMA-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

ZHEJIANG HISUN-A

SICHUAN KELUN-A

HUADONG MEDICI-A

HUMANWELL HEAL-A

CHINA RESOURCE-A

HARBIN PHARMA-A

AIER EYE HSPTL-A

TONGHUA DONGBA-A

SHANGHAI PHARM-A

SHANGHAI FOSUN-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

TASLY PHARMAC-A

YUNNAN BAIYAO-A

KANGMEI PHARMA-A

JOINTOWN PHARM-A

JIANGSU HENGRU-A

CHINA MEHECO C-A

HUALAN BIOLOGI-A

CSI300

MSCI A China HC



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




-25

44

55

155

167

18

30

64

-05 0 05 1 15 2

CHINA BIOLOGIC

ZLAB

ATHENEX

HCM

BEIGENE

SampP 500 Index

NASDAQ Index

MSCI US HC



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




0

7

31

15

18

28

18

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45


STOXX Europe

HSI


TOPIX


SampP 500

MSCI China HC

-4

-1

0

-6

-2

5

10

-6

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12


STOXX Europe

HSI


TOPIX


SampP 500

MSCI China HC




5

7

31

9

18

9

18

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

MSCI Europe Pharma

STOXX Europe

HSI

TOPIX Pharma

TOPIX

SampP 500 Pharma

SampP 500

MSCI China HC

-12

-1

0

-11

-2

-4

10

-6

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

MSCI Europe Pharma

STOXX Europe

HSI

TOPIX Pharma

TOPIX

SampP 500 Pharma

SampP 500

MSCI China HC





1099HK Sinopharm 04 04 03 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 05 05 06 06 05 05 05 04 04 03

1093HK CSPC 02 02 03 03 03 04 05 05 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 06

1177HK Sino Biopharm 03 03 03 04 03 04 03 03 03 05 04 04 03 03 03 03 03 03 04



0241HK Ali Health 02 02 01 01 01 01

1066HK Weigao 02 03 02 03 03 03 02 02 02 01 02 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01

1530HK 3SBio 01 01 01 01 01 01 01

2196HK Fosun Pharma 02 02 02 01 01 02 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 02

2186HK Luye Pharma 01 02 02 01 01

0460HK Sihuan 01 02 02 03 03 03 04 03 03 02 01 01 01



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




Application

registration no


time

Key competitors







injection













capsules


(injection)





















ChiCTR-IIR-

17012724






Pharma


tablets









8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors




⋩༽ਸ㜲䍘փ









˅



injection




chloride injection

㗏҉ส㊹13004≟䫐

ሴ









Topfond




Baiyunshan



Zhonghe Pharma


including Haisun


Tongrentang



Baiyunshan


Zhengyuan Pharma





Ṭሴ






Tablets (II)



Tablets (I)





compound tablets





Hengrui


release tablets (I)









8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors







Tianjin Pharma






Livzon


release capsules





Injection



Pharma (injection)



Baike Pharma



release tablets

















(Ċ)





(I)





coated capsuless




tablets



Onbrez

Breezhaler



tablets


reaction



capsules





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors






ゃ








oxide injection


ゃ









Haisun Forward


Qilu


capsules


Hengrui


(injection)







Huapont






擦(娜把鰭)




Kanghong Pharma



powder spray


蜮擦




induced nausea amp

vomiting













8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


registration no


time

Key competitors








Hengrui


Haiwangfu Pharma


injection


Hengrui




Medco




䞨


Haisun


Pharmaceutical



㗏҉ส㊹20005≟䫐

ሴ



ChaseSun


Qilu Pharma


Lingnan Pharma







injection




Lunan Pharma








Pharma Beilu Pharma












8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Hengrui Medicine




registration no


time

Key competitors


Pharma



bound)

˄

ර˅









Qilu


Baike Pharma





capsules









release tablets




chloride Injection










thrombocytopenia



acid for injection










injection






diseases






8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors





(injection)




Pharma













Pharma


coated Tablets








Tiancheng Pharma


Kanghong Pharma













condyloma

acuminatum

leukemia oncology



release cream













pound(16)B屶ゃ






ゃ




ゃ






8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


registration no


time

Key competitors















rejection reaction




tablets


rejection reaction












吿暗娩さ913004翰俉155660侷

頻B屶ゃ



tablets (I)



tablets (II)



tablets (III)






Wansheng Pharma








hypertension



perfusion)


B49)








Opthealmic Solution






induced nausea

vomiting




Pharma Luyin Pharma





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


registration no


time

Key competitors


inhalation


Breezhaler





for inhalation


Neohaler




Lunan Pharma




Emulsion Injection


Pharma





Pharma (injection)





betamethasone gel





䍘ሴ




powder


Neohaler





capsules





hypertension







Diskus





injection














8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

CSPC




Application

registration no


time

Key competitors





bound)

˄ර˅










Pharma Yangzi River


Injection




Chloride Injection



Shixin Pharma



ChaseSun






Dawnrays



injection


ሴ



Baike Pharma


SBP




≰䫉




injection









8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors



Pharma Sinopharm




Pharma
















Hansoh


Livzon



Qilu






Ruiyang Pharma


rejection reaction








Chengyi Pharma Puli

Pharma





SBP


Huahai Pharma






Hansoh Jutai Pharma










arthritis




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors































Wansheng Pharma


CR Double Crane



SBP











Icircα2aB屶ゃ







(emulsion)


Pharmaceutical









supplements


review

11132014 NA





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

3SBio






















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Tonghua Dongbao




registration no


time

Key competitors




including Hansoh




















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Fosun Pharma




registration no


time







SinoCelltech








Ther Hisun


Zhejiang Haizheng


Bio-Thera

and BJ Mabworks


Wanbang

NA


Jiangsu Wanbang

NA


targeting mAb




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Sihuan Pharma





Status start



including Salubris





Pharma



Sailike Pharma


(injection)





ASK Pharma




















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


















Ritonavir































8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook






Conjugate Vaccine




vaccine














8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




































8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance



10

25

5

75

125

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E175

20225

25275

30



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

10

20

30

40

23

24

25

26

27

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E-20

-15

-10

-5

0

0

200

400

600

800











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance


Jan 16 Jan 17Jul 16 Jul 17456789

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E30

35

40

45

50



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

25

50

75

100

15

20

25

10

30

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

200

400

600











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance


Jan 16 Jan 17Jul 16 Jul 17304050607080

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E

30

20

225

25

275



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

10

20

30

40

21

22

23

24

25

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E-60

-40

-20

0











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance



15

20

25

10

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E

25

3

35

2

4



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

1020304050

789101112

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

10

20

30

40

28

3

32

26

34











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Appendix 1















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


(as of 12072017)



Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1 23

45 6 7 8 9

10

11

12


2000

4000

6000

8000

10000



(as of 12072017)



Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1 23

45 6


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


(as of 12072017)



Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1

23 4 5 6 7 8

910 11 12

13

14

15


250

500

750

1000

1250

1500







Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1 2


1000

250

500

750



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook






Research







Equity Research


Equity Research





and QIS Research








8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









tumor (GIST)

1


fibrillationNA




Subtotal





patients

2







0


treatmentNA





Subtotal





36


B屶擦IVIG


B屶擦






33


Prothrombin complex




Subtotal



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





43


㳏capIVIG


㳏cap






32


Prothrombin complex




Subtotal



usesNA







restrictionNA




Subtotal



insulin

NA






Subtotal



hospitals

NA



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook







Empagliflozin

Osimertinib

Daclatasvir

Asunaprevir

May-17

Mar-17

Mar-17

Jan-17

Dec-16

Nov-16

Nov-16

Aug-16

May-15

Mar-13

Feb-12

Jul-11

May-10

Jun-09

May-08

01020304050607080

Sep-17

Sep-17

Sep-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Apr-17

Aug-17

Jun-17

Nov-17

Jan-15

Mar-14

Mar-14

Jun-14

Mar-14

Nov-14

Filing time


Approval time

3

1

2

1

5

4

34

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

2014

2015

2016

2017

Domestic MNC



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




Sep-16

Aug-15

Jul-15

May-15

Feb-15

Nov-14

Sep-14

Aug-14

Jun-14

May-14

Apr-14

Apr-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Nov-13

Oct-13

Oct-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Dec-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Jul-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

Mar-12

Jan-12

Nov-11

Jul-11

Mar-11

Jan-11

Dec-10

Nov-10

Sep-10

Mar-10

May-09

Apr-06

020406080100120140

Jun-17

Aug-17

Aug-17

Apr-17

Sep-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Nov-16

Jul-17

Jul-16

Sep-17

Jan-16

Jan-16

Jul-16

Mar-16

Jul-16

Dec-15

Dec-15

Jul-17

Mar-16

Apr-17

Sep-17

Dec-15

Jul-17

Dec-14

Dec-15

Oct-16

Mar-17

Nov-15

Oct-17

May-14

Mar-17

Mar-16

Mar-16

May-17

Oct-14

Aug-17

Oct-14

Jan-14

Feb-15

Oct-15

Nov-16

Filing time


Approval time



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




Apr-16

Apr-16

Dec-15

Dec-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

May-15

Apr-15

Mar-15

Feb-15

Nov-14

Oct-14

Oct-14

Aug-14

Aug-14

Aug-14

Jul-14

Oct-13

Aug-13

May-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Oct-12

Jun-12

Jun-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Mar-12

Oct-11

Oct-11

Jul-11

Jul-11

Apr-11

Apr-11

Mar-11

Mar-11

Nov-10

Oct-08

010203040506070

Aug-17

Mar-17

Nov-16

Mar-17

Aug-16

Oct-16

Jan-16

Jan-16

Nov-16

Aug-15

Jun-15

Oct-16

Dec-16

May-15

May-15

May-15

May-15

Jul-16

Feb-15

Apr-16

Dec-14

Apr-17

May-17

Dec-16

Oct-14

Dec-14

Aug-14

Nov-16

Aug-16

Feb-15

Jul-14

Aug-16

Aug-16

May-16

Mar-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-14

Jan-14

Filing time


Approval time



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





SBP






injection




injection











bound)



CSPC


Tablets









bound)




tablets






8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





Hengrui












SBP









CSPC







8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





5545

106103

10

4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2016 YTD Nov17


63

373734

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2016 YTD Nov17

Domestic MNCs




42

3532

14 13 12 118

4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




Province city

(EN)

Province city

(CN)

Recent

announcement

Status of





































8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

-

5

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E








8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook






2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E


YoY grow th -35 -108 -181 -270 -250 -230 -210 -180 -150 -120


YoY grow th 406 357 194 53 -40 -60 -80 -120 -150 -150


YoY grow th 1611 1297 867 600 300 200 50 -50 -50


YoY grow th 2167 263 167 71 67


YoY grow th 3750 684 500


YoY grow th 286 266 166 66 52 72 54 120 53 88


YoY grow th 105 193 10 60 60 50 40 30 20 20


YoY grow th 210 238 109 64 55 65 49 91 43 68


YoY grow th 44 89 -22 -05 50 41 38 30 30 30


YoY grow th 187 220 95 57 55 62 48 85 42 65



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




(RMBm)

Probability of

success (low

end)

Probability of

success (high

end)

Value per share

(prob adjusted

RMB)

Value per share

(prob adjusted HKD)




Subtotal

Generic drugs
















Subtotal

Total


















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook
























8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Jointown



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue YoYRMB bn

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E








8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



0

10

20

30

0

400

800

1200

1600

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1H16 1H17


687 689 688 690 688 684 681

247 237 233 227 225 225 225

66 74 79 83 87 91 94

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1H17






0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E



148

all other terminal

markets 852



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




12x 12x

8x

20x

8x

12x

18x

13x

29x

17x

0x

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x


EVEBITDA ftm PE ftm

Weighted Avg

PE 16x

Weighted Avg

EVEBITDA 11x

0x

20x

40x

60x

80x

EVEBITDA ftm PE ftm




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Universal Medical




327

2009

3802

5016

13 113 212 308

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E


9

32

4244

1

7 10

13

0

10

20

30

40

50

2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue Net profit







8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue Net profit


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



6-Dec














1530HK 3SBio Buy 178 141 159 72 4594 36 29 24 CNY 28 28 20 23 20 17 52 16 12







37 30 25 13 31 19 25 20 16 24 21 18

Plasma products



31 26 23 9 16 10 22 19 17 3 15 11

HC services






51 36 29 11 39 27 24 19 16 21 30 20




14 12 11 14 14 14 9 8 7 26 15 14


4543T Terumo Hold 4700 5270 5400 3855 17755 37 32 27 JPY 5 17 15 17 15 9 0 10 9

6869T Sysmex Buy 9800 8380 8640 6100 15517 42 37 33 JPY 3 14 14 23 21 9 13 10 11


36 31 28 14 13 12 17 16 10 8 9 9

Rating Target

Price (LC)

52-week Mkt cap




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22


14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21





10

15

20

25

30

35


16

19

22

25

28

31

34

37




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





-33

-25

-19

-18

-6

-4

3

11

12

13

16

17

22

30

39

63

82

89

97

98

31

40

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

SHANGHAI FUDAN-H

TONG REN TANG-H

CHINA SHINEWAY

CHINA PIONEER PH

DAWNRAYS PHARMAC

SINOPHARM-H

LEES PHARM

SHANGHAI PHARM-H

Universal Medical

GUANGZHOU BAIYUN

CHINA TRADITIONA

THE UNITED LABOR

SIHUAN PHARM

CHINA MEDICAL SY

BLOOMAGE BIOTE

SHANGHAI FOSUN-H

CONSUN PHARMACEU

CSPC PHARMACEUTI

SINO BIOPHARM

3SBIO INC

HSI

MSCI China HC

-51

-39

-35

-31

-24

-23

-23

-22

-11

-9

0

3

5

6

6

7

8

13

23

24

0

-6

-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30

SIHUAN PHARM

BLOOMAGE BIOTE

LEES PHARM

CHINA TRADITIONA

CONSUN PHARMACEU

SINO BIOPHARM

DAWNRAYS PHARMAC

SHANGHAI FUDAN-H

CHINA SHINEWAY

GUANGZHOU BAIYUN

CHINA PIONEER PH

SINOPHARM-H

CSPC PHARMACEUTI

SHANGHAI FOSUN-H

SHANGHAI PHARM-H

Universal Medical

CHINA MEDICAL SY

TONG REN TANG-H

THE UNITED LABOR

LIJUN INTL PHARM

HSI

MSCI China HC





-32

-22

-20

-18

-13

-12

-11

-11

-11

-9

-9

3

3

8

19

21

24

31

40

42

51

71

78

21

18

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

HARBIN PHARMA-A

HUALAN BIOLOGI-A

NANJING PHARMA-A

NORTH CHINA PH-A

TOPCHOICE MEDI-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

TASLY PHARMAC-A

JOINTOWN PHARM-A

HUMANWELL HEAL-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

YUNNAN BAIYAO-A

CHINA RESOURCE-A

BEIJING TONGRE-A

ZHEJIANG HISUN-A

KANGMEI PHARMA-A

TONGHUA DONGBA-A

SHANGHAI PHARM-A

CHINA MEHECO C-A

HUADONG MEDICI-A

AIER EYE HSPTL-A

SICHUAN KELUN-A

SHANGHAI FOSUN-A

JIANGSU HENGRU-A

CSI300

MSCI A China HC

-32

-30

-27

-24

-21

-17

-13

-12

-10

-9

-7

-5

-3

-2

-1

1

1

5

5

6

11

14

30

-11

-16

-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

TOPCHOICE MEDI-A

BEIJING TONGRE-A

NORTH CHINA PH-A

NANJING PHARMA-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

ZHEJIANG HISUN-A

SICHUAN KELUN-A

HUADONG MEDICI-A

HUMANWELL HEAL-A

CHINA RESOURCE-A

HARBIN PHARMA-A

AIER EYE HSPTL-A

TONGHUA DONGBA-A

SHANGHAI PHARM-A

SHANGHAI FOSUN-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

TASLY PHARMAC-A

YUNNAN BAIYAO-A

KANGMEI PHARMA-A

JOINTOWN PHARM-A

JIANGSU HENGRU-A

CHINA MEHECO C-A

HUALAN BIOLOGI-A

CSI300

MSCI A China HC



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




-25

44

55

155

167

18

30

64

-05 0 05 1 15 2

CHINA BIOLOGIC

ZLAB

ATHENEX

HCM

BEIGENE

SampP 500 Index

NASDAQ Index

MSCI US HC



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




0

7

31

15

18

28

18

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45


STOXX Europe

HSI


TOPIX


SampP 500

MSCI China HC

-4

-1

0

-6

-2

5

10

-6

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12


STOXX Europe

HSI


TOPIX


SampP 500

MSCI China HC




5

7

31

9

18

9

18

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

MSCI Europe Pharma

STOXX Europe

HSI

TOPIX Pharma

TOPIX

SampP 500 Pharma

SampP 500

MSCI China HC

-12

-1

0

-11

-2

-4

10

-6

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

MSCI Europe Pharma

STOXX Europe

HSI

TOPIX Pharma

TOPIX

SampP 500 Pharma

SampP 500

MSCI China HC





1099HK Sinopharm 04 04 03 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 05 05 06 06 05 05 05 04 04 03

1093HK CSPC 02 02 03 03 03 04 05 05 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 06

1177HK Sino Biopharm 03 03 03 04 03 04 03 03 03 05 04 04 03 03 03 03 03 03 04



0241HK Ali Health 02 02 01 01 01 01

1066HK Weigao 02 03 02 03 03 03 02 02 02 01 02 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01

1530HK 3SBio 01 01 01 01 01 01 01

2196HK Fosun Pharma 02 02 02 01 01 02 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 02

2186HK Luye Pharma 01 02 02 01 01

0460HK Sihuan 01 02 02 03 03 03 04 03 03 02 01 01 01



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




Application

registration no


time

Key competitors







injection













capsules


(injection)





















ChiCTR-IIR-

17012724






Pharma


tablets









8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors




⋩༽ਸ㜲䍘փ









˅



injection




chloride injection

㗏҉ส㊹13004≟䫐

ሴ









Topfond




Baiyunshan



Zhonghe Pharma


including Haisun


Tongrentang



Baiyunshan


Zhengyuan Pharma





Ṭሴ






Tablets (II)



Tablets (I)





compound tablets





Hengrui


release tablets (I)









8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors







Tianjin Pharma






Livzon


release capsules





Injection



Pharma (injection)



Baike Pharma



release tablets

















(Ċ)





(I)





coated capsuless




tablets



Onbrez

Breezhaler



tablets


reaction



capsules





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors






ゃ








oxide injection


ゃ









Haisun Forward


Qilu


capsules


Hengrui


(injection)







Huapont






擦(娜把鰭)




Kanghong Pharma



powder spray


蜮擦




induced nausea amp

vomiting













8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


registration no


time

Key competitors








Hengrui


Haiwangfu Pharma


injection


Hengrui




Medco




䞨


Haisun


Pharmaceutical



㗏҉ส㊹20005≟䫐

ሴ



ChaseSun


Qilu Pharma


Lingnan Pharma







injection




Lunan Pharma








Pharma Beilu Pharma












8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Hengrui Medicine




registration no


time

Key competitors


Pharma



bound)

˄

ර˅









Qilu


Baike Pharma





capsules









release tablets




chloride Injection










thrombocytopenia



acid for injection










injection






diseases






8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors





(injection)




Pharma













Pharma


coated Tablets








Tiancheng Pharma


Kanghong Pharma













condyloma

acuminatum

leukemia oncology



release cream













pound(16)B屶ゃ






ゃ




ゃ






8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


registration no


time

Key competitors















rejection reaction




tablets


rejection reaction












吿暗娩さ913004翰俉155660侷

頻B屶ゃ



tablets (I)



tablets (II)



tablets (III)






Wansheng Pharma








hypertension



perfusion)


B49)








Opthealmic Solution






induced nausea

vomiting




Pharma Luyin Pharma





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


registration no


time

Key competitors


inhalation


Breezhaler





for inhalation


Neohaler




Lunan Pharma




Emulsion Injection


Pharma





Pharma (injection)





betamethasone gel





䍘ሴ




powder


Neohaler





capsules





hypertension







Diskus





injection














8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

CSPC




Application

registration no


time

Key competitors





bound)

˄ර˅










Pharma Yangzi River


Injection




Chloride Injection



Shixin Pharma



ChaseSun






Dawnrays



injection


ሴ



Baike Pharma


SBP




≰䫉




injection









8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors



Pharma Sinopharm




Pharma
















Hansoh


Livzon



Qilu






Ruiyang Pharma


rejection reaction








Chengyi Pharma Puli

Pharma





SBP


Huahai Pharma






Hansoh Jutai Pharma










arthritis




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors































Wansheng Pharma


CR Double Crane



SBP











Icircα2aB屶ゃ







(emulsion)


Pharmaceutical









supplements


review

11132014 NA





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

3SBio






















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Tonghua Dongbao




registration no


time

Key competitors




including Hansoh




















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Fosun Pharma




registration no


time







SinoCelltech








Ther Hisun


Zhejiang Haizheng


Bio-Thera

and BJ Mabworks


Wanbang

NA


Jiangsu Wanbang

NA


targeting mAb




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Sihuan Pharma





Status start



including Salubris





Pharma



Sailike Pharma


(injection)





ASK Pharma




















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


















Ritonavir































8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook






Conjugate Vaccine




vaccine














8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




































8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance



10

25

5

75

125

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E175

20225

25275

30



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

10

20

30

40

23

24

25

26

27

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E-20

-15

-10

-5

0

0

200

400

600

800











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance


Jan 16 Jan 17Jul 16 Jul 17456789

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E30

35

40

45

50



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

25

50

75

100

15

20

25

10

30

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

200

400

600











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance


Jan 16 Jan 17Jul 16 Jul 17304050607080

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E

30

20

225

25

275



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

10

20

30

40

21

22

23

24

25

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E-60

-40

-20

0











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance



15

20

25

10

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E

25

3

35

2

4



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

1020304050

789101112

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

10

20

30

40

28

3

32

26

34











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Appendix 1















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


(as of 12072017)



Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1 23

45 6 7 8 9

10

11

12


2000

4000

6000

8000

10000



(as of 12072017)



Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1 23

45 6


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


(as of 12072017)



Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1

23 4 5 6 7 8

910 11 12

13

14

15


250

500

750

1000

1250

1500







Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1 2


1000

250

500

750



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook






Research







Equity Research


Equity Research





and QIS Research








8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





43


㳏capIVIG


㳏cap






32


Prothrombin complex




Subtotal



usesNA







restrictionNA




Subtotal



insulin

NA






Subtotal



hospitals

NA



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook







Empagliflozin

Osimertinib

Daclatasvir

Asunaprevir

May-17

Mar-17

Mar-17

Jan-17

Dec-16

Nov-16

Nov-16

Aug-16

May-15

Mar-13

Feb-12

Jul-11

May-10

Jun-09

May-08

01020304050607080

Sep-17

Sep-17

Sep-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Apr-17

Aug-17

Jun-17

Nov-17

Jan-15

Mar-14

Mar-14

Jun-14

Mar-14

Nov-14

Filing time


Approval time

3

1

2

1

5

4

34

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

2014

2015

2016

2017

Domestic MNC



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




Sep-16

Aug-15

Jul-15

May-15

Feb-15

Nov-14

Sep-14

Aug-14

Jun-14

May-14

Apr-14

Apr-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Nov-13

Oct-13

Oct-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Dec-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Jul-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

Mar-12

Jan-12

Nov-11

Jul-11

Mar-11

Jan-11

Dec-10

Nov-10

Sep-10

Mar-10

May-09

Apr-06

020406080100120140

Jun-17

Aug-17

Aug-17

Apr-17

Sep-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Nov-16

Jul-17

Jul-16

Sep-17

Jan-16

Jan-16

Jul-16

Mar-16

Jul-16

Dec-15

Dec-15

Jul-17

Mar-16

Apr-17

Sep-17

Dec-15

Jul-17

Dec-14

Dec-15

Oct-16

Mar-17

Nov-15

Oct-17

May-14

Mar-17

Mar-16

Mar-16

May-17

Oct-14

Aug-17

Oct-14

Jan-14

Feb-15

Oct-15

Nov-16

Filing time


Approval time



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




Apr-16

Apr-16

Dec-15

Dec-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

May-15

Apr-15

Mar-15

Feb-15

Nov-14

Oct-14

Oct-14

Aug-14

Aug-14

Aug-14

Jul-14

Oct-13

Aug-13

May-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Oct-12

Jun-12

Jun-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Mar-12

Oct-11

Oct-11

Jul-11

Jul-11

Apr-11

Apr-11

Mar-11

Mar-11

Nov-10

Oct-08

010203040506070

Aug-17

Mar-17

Nov-16

Mar-17

Aug-16

Oct-16

Jan-16

Jan-16

Nov-16

Aug-15

Jun-15

Oct-16

Dec-16

May-15

May-15

May-15

May-15

Jul-16

Feb-15

Apr-16

Dec-14

Apr-17

May-17

Dec-16

Oct-14

Dec-14

Aug-14

Nov-16

Aug-16

Feb-15

Jul-14

Aug-16

Aug-16

May-16

Mar-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-14

Jan-14

Filing time


Approval time



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





SBP






injection




injection











bound)



CSPC


Tablets









bound)




tablets






8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





Hengrui












SBP









CSPC







8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





5545

106103

10

4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2016 YTD Nov17


63

373734

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2016 YTD Nov17

Domestic MNCs




42

3532

14 13 12 118

4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




Province city

(EN)

Province city

(CN)

Recent

announcement

Status of





































8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

-

5

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E








8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook






2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E


YoY grow th -35 -108 -181 -270 -250 -230 -210 -180 -150 -120


YoY grow th 406 357 194 53 -40 -60 -80 -120 -150 -150


YoY grow th 1611 1297 867 600 300 200 50 -50 -50


YoY grow th 2167 263 167 71 67


YoY grow th 3750 684 500


YoY grow th 286 266 166 66 52 72 54 120 53 88


YoY grow th 105 193 10 60 60 50 40 30 20 20


YoY grow th 210 238 109 64 55 65 49 91 43 68


YoY grow th 44 89 -22 -05 50 41 38 30 30 30


YoY grow th 187 220 95 57 55 62 48 85 42 65



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




(RMBm)

Probability of

success (low

end)

Probability of

success (high

end)

Value per share

(prob adjusted

RMB)

Value per share

(prob adjusted HKD)




Subtotal

Generic drugs
















Subtotal

Total


















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook
























8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Jointown



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue YoYRMB bn

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E








8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



0

10

20

30

0

400

800

1200

1600

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1H16 1H17


687 689 688 690 688 684 681

247 237 233 227 225 225 225

66 74 79 83 87 91 94

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1H17






0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E



148

all other terminal

markets 852



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




12x 12x

8x

20x

8x

12x

18x

13x

29x

17x

0x

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x


EVEBITDA ftm PE ftm

Weighted Avg

PE 16x

Weighted Avg

EVEBITDA 11x

0x

20x

40x

60x

80x

EVEBITDA ftm PE ftm




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Universal Medical




327

2009

3802

5016

13 113 212 308

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E


9

32

4244

1

7 10

13

0

10

20

30

40

50

2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue Net profit







8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue Net profit


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



6-Dec














1530HK 3SBio Buy 178 141 159 72 4594 36 29 24 CNY 28 28 20 23 20 17 52 16 12







37 30 25 13 31 19 25 20 16 24 21 18

Plasma products



31 26 23 9 16 10 22 19 17 3 15 11

HC services






51 36 29 11 39 27 24 19 16 21 30 20




14 12 11 14 14 14 9 8 7 26 15 14


4543T Terumo Hold 4700 5270 5400 3855 17755 37 32 27 JPY 5 17 15 17 15 9 0 10 9

6869T Sysmex Buy 9800 8380 8640 6100 15517 42 37 33 JPY 3 14 14 23 21 9 13 10 11


36 31 28 14 13 12 17 16 10 8 9 9

Rating Target

Price (LC)

52-week Mkt cap




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22


14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21





10

15

20

25

30

35


16

19

22

25

28

31

34

37




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





-33

-25

-19

-18

-6

-4

3

11

12

13

16

17

22

30

39

63

82

89

97

98

31

40

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

SHANGHAI FUDAN-H

TONG REN TANG-H

CHINA SHINEWAY

CHINA PIONEER PH

DAWNRAYS PHARMAC

SINOPHARM-H

LEES PHARM

SHANGHAI PHARM-H

Universal Medical

GUANGZHOU BAIYUN

CHINA TRADITIONA

THE UNITED LABOR

SIHUAN PHARM

CHINA MEDICAL SY

BLOOMAGE BIOTE

SHANGHAI FOSUN-H

CONSUN PHARMACEU

CSPC PHARMACEUTI

SINO BIOPHARM

3SBIO INC

HSI

MSCI China HC

-51

-39

-35

-31

-24

-23

-23

-22

-11

-9

0

3

5

6

6

7

8

13

23

24

0

-6

-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30

SIHUAN PHARM

BLOOMAGE BIOTE

LEES PHARM

CHINA TRADITIONA

CONSUN PHARMACEU

SINO BIOPHARM

DAWNRAYS PHARMAC

SHANGHAI FUDAN-H

CHINA SHINEWAY

GUANGZHOU BAIYUN

CHINA PIONEER PH

SINOPHARM-H

CSPC PHARMACEUTI

SHANGHAI FOSUN-H

SHANGHAI PHARM-H

Universal Medical

CHINA MEDICAL SY

TONG REN TANG-H

THE UNITED LABOR

LIJUN INTL PHARM

HSI

MSCI China HC





-32

-22

-20

-18

-13

-12

-11

-11

-11

-9

-9

3

3

8

19

21

24

31

40

42

51

71

78

21

18

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

HARBIN PHARMA-A

HUALAN BIOLOGI-A

NANJING PHARMA-A

NORTH CHINA PH-A

TOPCHOICE MEDI-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

TASLY PHARMAC-A

JOINTOWN PHARM-A

HUMANWELL HEAL-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

YUNNAN BAIYAO-A

CHINA RESOURCE-A

BEIJING TONGRE-A

ZHEJIANG HISUN-A

KANGMEI PHARMA-A

TONGHUA DONGBA-A

SHANGHAI PHARM-A

CHINA MEHECO C-A

HUADONG MEDICI-A

AIER EYE HSPTL-A

SICHUAN KELUN-A

SHANGHAI FOSUN-A

JIANGSU HENGRU-A

CSI300

MSCI A China HC

-32

-30

-27

-24

-21

-17

-13

-12

-10

-9

-7

-5

-3

-2

-1

1

1

5

5

6

11

14

30

-11

-16

-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

TOPCHOICE MEDI-A

BEIJING TONGRE-A

NORTH CHINA PH-A

NANJING PHARMA-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

ZHEJIANG HISUN-A

SICHUAN KELUN-A

HUADONG MEDICI-A

HUMANWELL HEAL-A

CHINA RESOURCE-A

HARBIN PHARMA-A

AIER EYE HSPTL-A

TONGHUA DONGBA-A

SHANGHAI PHARM-A

SHANGHAI FOSUN-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

TASLY PHARMAC-A

YUNNAN BAIYAO-A

KANGMEI PHARMA-A

JOINTOWN PHARM-A

JIANGSU HENGRU-A

CHINA MEHECO C-A

HUALAN BIOLOGI-A

CSI300

MSCI A China HC



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




-25

44

55

155

167

18

30

64

-05 0 05 1 15 2

CHINA BIOLOGIC

ZLAB

ATHENEX

HCM

BEIGENE

SampP 500 Index

NASDAQ Index

MSCI US HC



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




0

7

31

15

18

28

18

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45


STOXX Europe

HSI


TOPIX


SampP 500

MSCI China HC

-4

-1

0

-6

-2

5

10

-6

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12


STOXX Europe

HSI


TOPIX


SampP 500

MSCI China HC




5

7

31

9

18

9

18

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

MSCI Europe Pharma

STOXX Europe

HSI

TOPIX Pharma

TOPIX

SampP 500 Pharma

SampP 500

MSCI China HC

-12

-1

0

-11

-2

-4

10

-6

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

MSCI Europe Pharma

STOXX Europe

HSI

TOPIX Pharma

TOPIX

SampP 500 Pharma

SampP 500

MSCI China HC





1099HK Sinopharm 04 04 03 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 05 05 06 06 05 05 05 04 04 03

1093HK CSPC 02 02 03 03 03 04 05 05 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 06

1177HK Sino Biopharm 03 03 03 04 03 04 03 03 03 05 04 04 03 03 03 03 03 03 04



0241HK Ali Health 02 02 01 01 01 01

1066HK Weigao 02 03 02 03 03 03 02 02 02 01 02 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01

1530HK 3SBio 01 01 01 01 01 01 01

2196HK Fosun Pharma 02 02 02 01 01 02 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 02

2186HK Luye Pharma 01 02 02 01 01

0460HK Sihuan 01 02 02 03 03 03 04 03 03 02 01 01 01



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




Application

registration no


time

Key competitors







injection













capsules


(injection)





















ChiCTR-IIR-

17012724






Pharma


tablets









8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors




⋩༽ਸ㜲䍘փ









˅



injection




chloride injection

㗏҉ส㊹13004≟䫐

ሴ









Topfond




Baiyunshan



Zhonghe Pharma


including Haisun


Tongrentang



Baiyunshan


Zhengyuan Pharma





Ṭሴ






Tablets (II)



Tablets (I)





compound tablets





Hengrui


release tablets (I)









8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors







Tianjin Pharma






Livzon


release capsules





Injection



Pharma (injection)



Baike Pharma



release tablets

















(Ċ)





(I)





coated capsuless




tablets



Onbrez

Breezhaler



tablets


reaction



capsules





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors






ゃ








oxide injection


ゃ









Haisun Forward


Qilu


capsules


Hengrui


(injection)







Huapont






擦(娜把鰭)




Kanghong Pharma



powder spray


蜮擦




induced nausea amp

vomiting













8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


registration no


time

Key competitors








Hengrui


Haiwangfu Pharma


injection


Hengrui




Medco




䞨


Haisun


Pharmaceutical



㗏҉ส㊹20005≟䫐

ሴ



ChaseSun


Qilu Pharma


Lingnan Pharma







injection




Lunan Pharma








Pharma Beilu Pharma












8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Hengrui Medicine




registration no


time

Key competitors


Pharma



bound)

˄

ර˅









Qilu


Baike Pharma





capsules









release tablets




chloride Injection










thrombocytopenia



acid for injection










injection






diseases






8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors





(injection)




Pharma













Pharma


coated Tablets








Tiancheng Pharma


Kanghong Pharma













condyloma

acuminatum

leukemia oncology



release cream













pound(16)B屶ゃ






ゃ




ゃ






8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


registration no


time

Key competitors















rejection reaction




tablets


rejection reaction












吿暗娩さ913004翰俉155660侷

頻B屶ゃ



tablets (I)



tablets (II)



tablets (III)






Wansheng Pharma








hypertension



perfusion)


B49)








Opthealmic Solution






induced nausea

vomiting




Pharma Luyin Pharma





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


registration no


time

Key competitors


inhalation


Breezhaler





for inhalation


Neohaler




Lunan Pharma




Emulsion Injection


Pharma





Pharma (injection)





betamethasone gel





䍘ሴ




powder


Neohaler





capsules





hypertension







Diskus





injection














8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

CSPC




Application

registration no


time

Key competitors





bound)

˄ර˅










Pharma Yangzi River


Injection




Chloride Injection



Shixin Pharma



ChaseSun






Dawnrays



injection


ሴ



Baike Pharma


SBP




≰䫉




injection









8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors



Pharma Sinopharm




Pharma
















Hansoh


Livzon



Qilu






Ruiyang Pharma


rejection reaction








Chengyi Pharma Puli

Pharma





SBP


Huahai Pharma






Hansoh Jutai Pharma










arthritis




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors































Wansheng Pharma


CR Double Crane



SBP











Icircα2aB屶ゃ







(emulsion)


Pharmaceutical









supplements


review

11132014 NA





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

3SBio






















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Tonghua Dongbao




registration no


time

Key competitors




including Hansoh




















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Fosun Pharma




registration no


time







SinoCelltech








Ther Hisun


Zhejiang Haizheng


Bio-Thera

and BJ Mabworks


Wanbang

NA


Jiangsu Wanbang

NA


targeting mAb




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Sihuan Pharma





Status start



including Salubris





Pharma



Sailike Pharma


(injection)





ASK Pharma




















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


















Ritonavir































8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook






Conjugate Vaccine




vaccine














8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




































8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance



10

25

5

75

125

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E175

20225

25275

30



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

10

20

30

40

23

24

25

26

27

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E-20

-15

-10

-5

0

0

200

400

600

800











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance


Jan 16 Jan 17Jul 16 Jul 17456789

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E30

35

40

45

50



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

25

50

75

100

15

20

25

10

30

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

200

400

600











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance


Jan 16 Jan 17Jul 16 Jul 17304050607080

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E

30

20

225

25

275



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

10

20

30

40

21

22

23

24

25

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E-60

-40

-20

0











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance



15

20

25

10

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E

25

3

35

2

4



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

1020304050

789101112

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

10

20

30

40

28

3

32

26

34











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Appendix 1















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


(as of 12072017)



Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1 23

45 6 7 8 9

10

11

12


2000

4000

6000

8000

10000



(as of 12072017)



Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1 23

45 6


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


(as of 12072017)



Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1

23 4 5 6 7 8

910 11 12

13

14

15


250

500

750

1000

1250

1500







Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1 2


1000

250

500

750



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook






Research







Equity Research


Equity Research





and QIS Research








8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook







Empagliflozin

Osimertinib

Daclatasvir

Asunaprevir

May-17

Mar-17

Mar-17

Jan-17

Dec-16

Nov-16

Nov-16

Aug-16

May-15

Mar-13

Feb-12

Jul-11

May-10

Jun-09

May-08

01020304050607080

Sep-17

Sep-17

Sep-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Apr-17

Aug-17

Jun-17

Nov-17

Jan-15

Mar-14

Mar-14

Jun-14

Mar-14

Nov-14

Filing time


Approval time

3

1

2

1

5

4

34

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

2014

2015

2016

2017

Domestic MNC



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




Sep-16

Aug-15

Jul-15

May-15

Feb-15

Nov-14

Sep-14

Aug-14

Jun-14

May-14

Apr-14

Apr-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Nov-13

Oct-13

Oct-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Dec-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Jul-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

Mar-12

Jan-12

Nov-11

Jul-11

Mar-11

Jan-11

Dec-10

Nov-10

Sep-10

Mar-10

May-09

Apr-06

020406080100120140

Jun-17

Aug-17

Aug-17

Apr-17

Sep-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Nov-16

Jul-17

Jul-16

Sep-17

Jan-16

Jan-16

Jul-16

Mar-16

Jul-16

Dec-15

Dec-15

Jul-17

Mar-16

Apr-17

Sep-17

Dec-15

Jul-17

Dec-14

Dec-15

Oct-16

Mar-17

Nov-15

Oct-17

May-14

Mar-17

Mar-16

Mar-16

May-17

Oct-14

Aug-17

Oct-14

Jan-14

Feb-15

Oct-15

Nov-16

Filing time


Approval time



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




Apr-16

Apr-16

Dec-15

Dec-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

May-15

Apr-15

Mar-15

Feb-15

Nov-14

Oct-14

Oct-14

Aug-14

Aug-14

Aug-14

Jul-14

Oct-13

Aug-13

May-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Oct-12

Jun-12

Jun-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Mar-12

Oct-11

Oct-11

Jul-11

Jul-11

Apr-11

Apr-11

Mar-11

Mar-11

Nov-10

Oct-08

010203040506070

Aug-17

Mar-17

Nov-16

Mar-17

Aug-16

Oct-16

Jan-16

Jan-16

Nov-16

Aug-15

Jun-15

Oct-16

Dec-16

May-15

May-15

May-15

May-15

Jul-16

Feb-15

Apr-16

Dec-14

Apr-17

May-17

Dec-16

Oct-14

Dec-14

Aug-14

Nov-16

Aug-16

Feb-15

Jul-14

Aug-16

Aug-16

May-16

Mar-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-14

Jan-14

Filing time


Approval time



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





SBP






injection




injection











bound)



CSPC


Tablets









bound)




tablets






8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





Hengrui












SBP









CSPC







8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





5545

106103

10

4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2016 YTD Nov17


63

373734

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2016 YTD Nov17

Domestic MNCs




42

3532

14 13 12 118

4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




Province city

(EN)

Province city

(CN)

Recent

announcement

Status of





































8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

-

5

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E








8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook






2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E


YoY grow th -35 -108 -181 -270 -250 -230 -210 -180 -150 -120


YoY grow th 406 357 194 53 -40 -60 -80 -120 -150 -150


YoY grow th 1611 1297 867 600 300 200 50 -50 -50


YoY grow th 2167 263 167 71 67


YoY grow th 3750 684 500


YoY grow th 286 266 166 66 52 72 54 120 53 88


YoY grow th 105 193 10 60 60 50 40 30 20 20


YoY grow th 210 238 109 64 55 65 49 91 43 68


YoY grow th 44 89 -22 -05 50 41 38 30 30 30


YoY grow th 187 220 95 57 55 62 48 85 42 65



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




(RMBm)

Probability of

success (low

end)

Probability of

success (high

end)

Value per share

(prob adjusted

RMB)

Value per share

(prob adjusted HKD)




Subtotal

Generic drugs
















Subtotal

Total


















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook
























8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Jointown



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue YoYRMB bn

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E








8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



0

10

20

30

0

400

800

1200

1600

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1H16 1H17


687 689 688 690 688 684 681

247 237 233 227 225 225 225

66 74 79 83 87 91 94

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1H17






0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E



148

all other terminal

markets 852



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




12x 12x

8x

20x

8x

12x

18x

13x

29x

17x

0x

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x


EVEBITDA ftm PE ftm

Weighted Avg

PE 16x

Weighted Avg

EVEBITDA 11x

0x

20x

40x

60x

80x

EVEBITDA ftm PE ftm




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Universal Medical




327

2009

3802

5016

13 113 212 308

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E


9

32

4244

1

7 10

13

0

10

20

30

40

50

2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue Net profit







8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue Net profit


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



6-Dec














1530HK 3SBio Buy 178 141 159 72 4594 36 29 24 CNY 28 28 20 23 20 17 52 16 12







37 30 25 13 31 19 25 20 16 24 21 18

Plasma products



31 26 23 9 16 10 22 19 17 3 15 11

HC services






51 36 29 11 39 27 24 19 16 21 30 20




14 12 11 14 14 14 9 8 7 26 15 14


4543T Terumo Hold 4700 5270 5400 3855 17755 37 32 27 JPY 5 17 15 17 15 9 0 10 9

6869T Sysmex Buy 9800 8380 8640 6100 15517 42 37 33 JPY 3 14 14 23 21 9 13 10 11


36 31 28 14 13 12 17 16 10 8 9 9

Rating Target

Price (LC)

52-week Mkt cap




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22


14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21





10

15

20

25

30

35


16

19

22

25

28

31

34

37




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





-33

-25

-19

-18

-6

-4

3

11

12

13

16

17

22

30

39

63

82

89

97

98

31

40

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

SHANGHAI FUDAN-H

TONG REN TANG-H

CHINA SHINEWAY

CHINA PIONEER PH

DAWNRAYS PHARMAC

SINOPHARM-H

LEES PHARM

SHANGHAI PHARM-H

Universal Medical

GUANGZHOU BAIYUN

CHINA TRADITIONA

THE UNITED LABOR

SIHUAN PHARM

CHINA MEDICAL SY

BLOOMAGE BIOTE

SHANGHAI FOSUN-H

CONSUN PHARMACEU

CSPC PHARMACEUTI

SINO BIOPHARM

3SBIO INC

HSI

MSCI China HC

-51

-39

-35

-31

-24

-23

-23

-22

-11

-9

0

3

5

6

6

7

8

13

23

24

0

-6

-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30

SIHUAN PHARM

BLOOMAGE BIOTE

LEES PHARM

CHINA TRADITIONA

CONSUN PHARMACEU

SINO BIOPHARM

DAWNRAYS PHARMAC

SHANGHAI FUDAN-H

CHINA SHINEWAY

GUANGZHOU BAIYUN

CHINA PIONEER PH

SINOPHARM-H

CSPC PHARMACEUTI

SHANGHAI FOSUN-H

SHANGHAI PHARM-H

Universal Medical

CHINA MEDICAL SY

TONG REN TANG-H

THE UNITED LABOR

LIJUN INTL PHARM

HSI

MSCI China HC





-32

-22

-20

-18

-13

-12

-11

-11

-11

-9

-9

3

3

8

19

21

24

31

40

42

51

71

78

21

18

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

HARBIN PHARMA-A

HUALAN BIOLOGI-A

NANJING PHARMA-A

NORTH CHINA PH-A

TOPCHOICE MEDI-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

TASLY PHARMAC-A

JOINTOWN PHARM-A

HUMANWELL HEAL-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

YUNNAN BAIYAO-A

CHINA RESOURCE-A

BEIJING TONGRE-A

ZHEJIANG HISUN-A

KANGMEI PHARMA-A

TONGHUA DONGBA-A

SHANGHAI PHARM-A

CHINA MEHECO C-A

HUADONG MEDICI-A

AIER EYE HSPTL-A

SICHUAN KELUN-A

SHANGHAI FOSUN-A

JIANGSU HENGRU-A

CSI300

MSCI A China HC

-32

-30

-27

-24

-21

-17

-13

-12

-10

-9

-7

-5

-3

-2

-1

1

1

5

5

6

11

14

30

-11

-16

-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

TOPCHOICE MEDI-A

BEIJING TONGRE-A

NORTH CHINA PH-A

NANJING PHARMA-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

ZHEJIANG HISUN-A

SICHUAN KELUN-A

HUADONG MEDICI-A

HUMANWELL HEAL-A

CHINA RESOURCE-A

HARBIN PHARMA-A

AIER EYE HSPTL-A

TONGHUA DONGBA-A

SHANGHAI PHARM-A

SHANGHAI FOSUN-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

TASLY PHARMAC-A

YUNNAN BAIYAO-A

KANGMEI PHARMA-A

JOINTOWN PHARM-A

JIANGSU HENGRU-A

CHINA MEHECO C-A

HUALAN BIOLOGI-A

CSI300

MSCI A China HC



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




-25

44

55

155

167

18

30

64

-05 0 05 1 15 2

CHINA BIOLOGIC

ZLAB

ATHENEX

HCM

BEIGENE

SampP 500 Index

NASDAQ Index

MSCI US HC



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




0

7

31

15

18

28

18

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45


STOXX Europe

HSI


TOPIX


SampP 500

MSCI China HC

-4

-1

0

-6

-2

5

10

-6

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12


STOXX Europe

HSI


TOPIX


SampP 500

MSCI China HC




5

7

31

9

18

9

18

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

MSCI Europe Pharma

STOXX Europe

HSI

TOPIX Pharma

TOPIX

SampP 500 Pharma

SampP 500

MSCI China HC

-12

-1

0

-11

-2

-4

10

-6

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

MSCI Europe Pharma

STOXX Europe

HSI

TOPIX Pharma

TOPIX

SampP 500 Pharma

SampP 500

MSCI China HC





1099HK Sinopharm 04 04 03 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 05 05 06 06 05 05 05 04 04 03

1093HK CSPC 02 02 03 03 03 04 05 05 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 06

1177HK Sino Biopharm 03 03 03 04 03 04 03 03 03 05 04 04 03 03 03 03 03 03 04



0241HK Ali Health 02 02 01 01 01 01

1066HK Weigao 02 03 02 03 03 03 02 02 02 01 02 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01

1530HK 3SBio 01 01 01 01 01 01 01

2196HK Fosun Pharma 02 02 02 01 01 02 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 02

2186HK Luye Pharma 01 02 02 01 01

0460HK Sihuan 01 02 02 03 03 03 04 03 03 02 01 01 01



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




Application

registration no


time

Key competitors







injection













capsules


(injection)





















ChiCTR-IIR-

17012724






Pharma


tablets









8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors




⋩༽ਸ㜲䍘փ









˅



injection




chloride injection

㗏҉ส㊹13004≟䫐

ሴ









Topfond




Baiyunshan



Zhonghe Pharma


including Haisun


Tongrentang



Baiyunshan


Zhengyuan Pharma





Ṭሴ






Tablets (II)



Tablets (I)





compound tablets





Hengrui


release tablets (I)









8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors







Tianjin Pharma






Livzon


release capsules





Injection



Pharma (injection)



Baike Pharma



release tablets

















(Ċ)





(I)





coated capsuless




tablets



Onbrez

Breezhaler



tablets


reaction



capsules





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors






ゃ








oxide injection


ゃ









Haisun Forward


Qilu


capsules


Hengrui


(injection)







Huapont






擦(娜把鰭)




Kanghong Pharma



powder spray


蜮擦




induced nausea amp

vomiting













8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


registration no


time

Key competitors








Hengrui


Haiwangfu Pharma


injection


Hengrui




Medco




䞨


Haisun


Pharmaceutical



㗏҉ส㊹20005≟䫐

ሴ



ChaseSun


Qilu Pharma


Lingnan Pharma







injection




Lunan Pharma








Pharma Beilu Pharma












8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Hengrui Medicine




registration no


time

Key competitors


Pharma



bound)

˄

ර˅









Qilu


Baike Pharma





capsules









release tablets




chloride Injection










thrombocytopenia



acid for injection










injection






diseases






8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors





(injection)




Pharma













Pharma


coated Tablets








Tiancheng Pharma


Kanghong Pharma













condyloma

acuminatum

leukemia oncology



release cream













pound(16)B屶ゃ






ゃ




ゃ






8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


registration no


time

Key competitors















rejection reaction




tablets


rejection reaction












吿暗娩さ913004翰俉155660侷

頻B屶ゃ



tablets (I)



tablets (II)



tablets (III)






Wansheng Pharma








hypertension



perfusion)


B49)








Opthealmic Solution






induced nausea

vomiting




Pharma Luyin Pharma





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


registration no


time

Key competitors


inhalation


Breezhaler





for inhalation


Neohaler




Lunan Pharma




Emulsion Injection


Pharma





Pharma (injection)





betamethasone gel





䍘ሴ




powder


Neohaler





capsules





hypertension







Diskus





injection














8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

CSPC




Application

registration no


time

Key competitors





bound)

˄ර˅










Pharma Yangzi River


Injection




Chloride Injection



Shixin Pharma



ChaseSun






Dawnrays



injection


ሴ



Baike Pharma


SBP




≰䫉




injection









8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors



Pharma Sinopharm




Pharma
















Hansoh


Livzon



Qilu






Ruiyang Pharma


rejection reaction








Chengyi Pharma Puli

Pharma





SBP


Huahai Pharma






Hansoh Jutai Pharma










arthritis




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors































Wansheng Pharma


CR Double Crane



SBP











Icircα2aB屶ゃ







(emulsion)


Pharmaceutical









supplements


review

11132014 NA





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

3SBio






















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Tonghua Dongbao




registration no


time

Key competitors




including Hansoh




















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Fosun Pharma




registration no


time







SinoCelltech








Ther Hisun


Zhejiang Haizheng


Bio-Thera

and BJ Mabworks


Wanbang

NA


Jiangsu Wanbang

NA


targeting mAb




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Sihuan Pharma





Status start



including Salubris





Pharma



Sailike Pharma


(injection)





ASK Pharma




















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


















Ritonavir































8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook






Conjugate Vaccine




vaccine














8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




































8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance



10

25

5

75

125

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E175

20225

25275

30



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

10

20

30

40

23

24

25

26

27

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E-20

-15

-10

-5

0

0

200

400

600

800











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance


Jan 16 Jan 17Jul 16 Jul 17456789

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E30

35

40

45

50



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

25

50

75

100

15

20

25

10

30

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

200

400

600











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance


Jan 16 Jan 17Jul 16 Jul 17304050607080

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E

30

20

225

25

275



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

10

20

30

40

21

22

23

24

25

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E-60

-40

-20

0











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance



15

20

25

10

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E

25

3

35

2

4



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

1020304050

789101112

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

10

20

30

40

28

3

32

26

34











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Appendix 1















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


(as of 12072017)



Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1 23

45 6 7 8 9

10

11

12


2000

4000

6000

8000

10000



(as of 12072017)



Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1 23

45 6


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


(as of 12072017)



Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1

23 4 5 6 7 8

910 11 12

13

14

15


250

500

750

1000

1250

1500







Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1 2


1000

250

500

750



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook






Research







Equity Research


Equity Research





and QIS Research








8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




Sep-16

Aug-15

Jul-15

May-15

Feb-15

Nov-14

Sep-14

Aug-14

Jun-14

May-14

Apr-14

Apr-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Nov-13

Oct-13

Oct-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Dec-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Jul-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

Mar-12

Jan-12

Nov-11

Jul-11

Mar-11

Jan-11

Dec-10

Nov-10

Sep-10

Mar-10

May-09

Apr-06

020406080100120140

Jun-17

Aug-17

Aug-17

Apr-17

Sep-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Nov-16

Jul-17

Jul-16

Sep-17

Jan-16

Jan-16

Jul-16

Mar-16

Jul-16

Dec-15

Dec-15

Jul-17

Mar-16

Apr-17

Sep-17

Dec-15

Jul-17

Dec-14

Dec-15

Oct-16

Mar-17

Nov-15

Oct-17

May-14

Mar-17

Mar-16

Mar-16

May-17

Oct-14

Aug-17

Oct-14

Jan-14

Feb-15

Oct-15

Nov-16

Filing time


Approval time



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




Apr-16

Apr-16

Dec-15

Dec-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

May-15

Apr-15

Mar-15

Feb-15

Nov-14

Oct-14

Oct-14

Aug-14

Aug-14

Aug-14

Jul-14

Oct-13

Aug-13

May-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Oct-12

Jun-12

Jun-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Mar-12

Oct-11

Oct-11

Jul-11

Jul-11

Apr-11

Apr-11

Mar-11

Mar-11

Nov-10

Oct-08

010203040506070

Aug-17

Mar-17

Nov-16

Mar-17

Aug-16

Oct-16

Jan-16

Jan-16

Nov-16

Aug-15

Jun-15

Oct-16

Dec-16

May-15

May-15

May-15

May-15

Jul-16

Feb-15

Apr-16

Dec-14

Apr-17

May-17

Dec-16

Oct-14

Dec-14

Aug-14

Nov-16

Aug-16

Feb-15

Jul-14

Aug-16

Aug-16

May-16

Mar-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-14

Jan-14

Filing time


Approval time



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





SBP






injection




injection











bound)



CSPC


Tablets









bound)




tablets






8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





Hengrui












SBP









CSPC







8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





5545

106103

10

4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2016 YTD Nov17


63

373734

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2016 YTD Nov17

Domestic MNCs




42

3532

14 13 12 118

4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




Province city

(EN)

Province city

(CN)

Recent

announcement

Status of





































8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

-

5

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E








8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook






2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E


YoY grow th -35 -108 -181 -270 -250 -230 -210 -180 -150 -120


YoY grow th 406 357 194 53 -40 -60 -80 -120 -150 -150


YoY grow th 1611 1297 867 600 300 200 50 -50 -50


YoY grow th 2167 263 167 71 67


YoY grow th 3750 684 500


YoY grow th 286 266 166 66 52 72 54 120 53 88


YoY grow th 105 193 10 60 60 50 40 30 20 20


YoY grow th 210 238 109 64 55 65 49 91 43 68


YoY grow th 44 89 -22 -05 50 41 38 30 30 30


YoY grow th 187 220 95 57 55 62 48 85 42 65



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




(RMBm)

Probability of

success (low

end)

Probability of

success (high

end)

Value per share

(prob adjusted

RMB)

Value per share

(prob adjusted HKD)




Subtotal

Generic drugs
















Subtotal

Total


















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook
























8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Jointown



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue YoYRMB bn

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E








8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



0

10

20

30

0

400

800

1200

1600

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1H16 1H17


687 689 688 690 688 684 681

247 237 233 227 225 225 225

66 74 79 83 87 91 94

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1H17






0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E



148

all other terminal

markets 852



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




12x 12x

8x

20x

8x

12x

18x

13x

29x

17x

0x

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x


EVEBITDA ftm PE ftm

Weighted Avg

PE 16x

Weighted Avg

EVEBITDA 11x

0x

20x

40x

60x

80x

EVEBITDA ftm PE ftm




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Universal Medical




327

2009

3802

5016

13 113 212 308

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E


9

32

4244

1

7 10

13

0

10

20

30

40

50

2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue Net profit







8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue Net profit


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



6-Dec














1530HK 3SBio Buy 178 141 159 72 4594 36 29 24 CNY 28 28 20 23 20 17 52 16 12







37 30 25 13 31 19 25 20 16 24 21 18

Plasma products



31 26 23 9 16 10 22 19 17 3 15 11

HC services






51 36 29 11 39 27 24 19 16 21 30 20




14 12 11 14 14 14 9 8 7 26 15 14


4543T Terumo Hold 4700 5270 5400 3855 17755 37 32 27 JPY 5 17 15 17 15 9 0 10 9

6869T Sysmex Buy 9800 8380 8640 6100 15517 42 37 33 JPY 3 14 14 23 21 9 13 10 11


36 31 28 14 13 12 17 16 10 8 9 9

Rating Target

Price (LC)

52-week Mkt cap




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22


14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21





10

15

20

25

30

35


16

19

22

25

28

31

34

37




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





-33

-25

-19

-18

-6

-4

3

11

12

13

16

17

22

30

39

63

82

89

97

98

31

40

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

SHANGHAI FUDAN-H

TONG REN TANG-H

CHINA SHINEWAY

CHINA PIONEER PH

DAWNRAYS PHARMAC

SINOPHARM-H

LEES PHARM

SHANGHAI PHARM-H

Universal Medical

GUANGZHOU BAIYUN

CHINA TRADITIONA

THE UNITED LABOR

SIHUAN PHARM

CHINA MEDICAL SY

BLOOMAGE BIOTE

SHANGHAI FOSUN-H

CONSUN PHARMACEU

CSPC PHARMACEUTI

SINO BIOPHARM

3SBIO INC

HSI

MSCI China HC

-51

-39

-35

-31

-24

-23

-23

-22

-11

-9

0

3

5

6

6

7

8

13

23

24

0

-6

-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30

SIHUAN PHARM

BLOOMAGE BIOTE

LEES PHARM

CHINA TRADITIONA

CONSUN PHARMACEU

SINO BIOPHARM

DAWNRAYS PHARMAC

SHANGHAI FUDAN-H

CHINA SHINEWAY

GUANGZHOU BAIYUN

CHINA PIONEER PH

SINOPHARM-H

CSPC PHARMACEUTI

SHANGHAI FOSUN-H

SHANGHAI PHARM-H

Universal Medical

CHINA MEDICAL SY

TONG REN TANG-H

THE UNITED LABOR

LIJUN INTL PHARM

HSI

MSCI China HC





-32

-22

-20

-18

-13

-12

-11

-11

-11

-9

-9

3

3

8

19

21

24

31

40

42

51

71

78

21

18

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

HARBIN PHARMA-A

HUALAN BIOLOGI-A

NANJING PHARMA-A

NORTH CHINA PH-A

TOPCHOICE MEDI-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

TASLY PHARMAC-A

JOINTOWN PHARM-A

HUMANWELL HEAL-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

YUNNAN BAIYAO-A

CHINA RESOURCE-A

BEIJING TONGRE-A

ZHEJIANG HISUN-A

KANGMEI PHARMA-A

TONGHUA DONGBA-A

SHANGHAI PHARM-A

CHINA MEHECO C-A

HUADONG MEDICI-A

AIER EYE HSPTL-A

SICHUAN KELUN-A

SHANGHAI FOSUN-A

JIANGSU HENGRU-A

CSI300

MSCI A China HC

-32

-30

-27

-24

-21

-17

-13

-12

-10

-9

-7

-5

-3

-2

-1

1

1

5

5

6

11

14

30

-11

-16

-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

TOPCHOICE MEDI-A

BEIJING TONGRE-A

NORTH CHINA PH-A

NANJING PHARMA-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

ZHEJIANG HISUN-A

SICHUAN KELUN-A

HUADONG MEDICI-A

HUMANWELL HEAL-A

CHINA RESOURCE-A

HARBIN PHARMA-A

AIER EYE HSPTL-A

TONGHUA DONGBA-A

SHANGHAI PHARM-A

SHANGHAI FOSUN-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

TASLY PHARMAC-A

YUNNAN BAIYAO-A

KANGMEI PHARMA-A

JOINTOWN PHARM-A

JIANGSU HENGRU-A

CHINA MEHECO C-A

HUALAN BIOLOGI-A

CSI300

MSCI A China HC



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




-25

44

55

155

167

18

30

64

-05 0 05 1 15 2

CHINA BIOLOGIC

ZLAB

ATHENEX

HCM

BEIGENE

SampP 500 Index

NASDAQ Index

MSCI US HC



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




0

7

31

15

18

28

18

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45


STOXX Europe

HSI


TOPIX


SampP 500

MSCI China HC

-4

-1

0

-6

-2

5

10

-6

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12


STOXX Europe

HSI


TOPIX


SampP 500

MSCI China HC




5

7

31

9

18

9

18

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

MSCI Europe Pharma

STOXX Europe

HSI

TOPIX Pharma

TOPIX

SampP 500 Pharma

SampP 500

MSCI China HC

-12

-1

0

-11

-2

-4

10

-6

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

MSCI Europe Pharma

STOXX Europe

HSI

TOPIX Pharma

TOPIX

SampP 500 Pharma

SampP 500

MSCI China HC





1099HK Sinopharm 04 04 03 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 05 05 06 06 05 05 05 04 04 03

1093HK CSPC 02 02 03 03 03 04 05 05 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 06

1177HK Sino Biopharm 03 03 03 04 03 04 03 03 03 05 04 04 03 03 03 03 03 03 04



0241HK Ali Health 02 02 01 01 01 01

1066HK Weigao 02 03 02 03 03 03 02 02 02 01 02 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01

1530HK 3SBio 01 01 01 01 01 01 01

2196HK Fosun Pharma 02 02 02 01 01 02 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 02

2186HK Luye Pharma 01 02 02 01 01

0460HK Sihuan 01 02 02 03 03 03 04 03 03 02 01 01 01



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




Application

registration no


time

Key competitors







injection













capsules


(injection)





















ChiCTR-IIR-

17012724






Pharma


tablets









8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors




⋩༽ਸ㜲䍘փ









˅



injection




chloride injection

㗏҉ส㊹13004≟䫐

ሴ









Topfond




Baiyunshan



Zhonghe Pharma


including Haisun


Tongrentang



Baiyunshan


Zhengyuan Pharma





Ṭሴ






Tablets (II)



Tablets (I)





compound tablets





Hengrui


release tablets (I)









8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors







Tianjin Pharma






Livzon


release capsules





Injection



Pharma (injection)



Baike Pharma



release tablets

















(Ċ)





(I)





coated capsuless




tablets



Onbrez

Breezhaler



tablets


reaction



capsules





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors






ゃ








oxide injection


ゃ









Haisun Forward


Qilu


capsules


Hengrui


(injection)







Huapont






擦(娜把鰭)




Kanghong Pharma



powder spray


蜮擦




induced nausea amp

vomiting













8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


registration no


time

Key competitors








Hengrui


Haiwangfu Pharma


injection


Hengrui




Medco




䞨


Haisun


Pharmaceutical



㗏҉ส㊹20005≟䫐

ሴ



ChaseSun


Qilu Pharma


Lingnan Pharma







injection




Lunan Pharma








Pharma Beilu Pharma












8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Hengrui Medicine




registration no


time

Key competitors


Pharma



bound)

˄

ර˅









Qilu


Baike Pharma





capsules









release tablets




chloride Injection










thrombocytopenia



acid for injection










injection






diseases






8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors





(injection)




Pharma













Pharma


coated Tablets








Tiancheng Pharma


Kanghong Pharma













condyloma

acuminatum

leukemia oncology



release cream













pound(16)B屶ゃ






ゃ




ゃ






8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


registration no


time

Key competitors















rejection reaction




tablets


rejection reaction












吿暗娩さ913004翰俉155660侷

頻B屶ゃ



tablets (I)



tablets (II)



tablets (III)






Wansheng Pharma








hypertension



perfusion)


B49)








Opthealmic Solution






induced nausea

vomiting




Pharma Luyin Pharma





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


registration no


time

Key competitors


inhalation


Breezhaler





for inhalation


Neohaler




Lunan Pharma




Emulsion Injection


Pharma





Pharma (injection)





betamethasone gel





䍘ሴ




powder


Neohaler





capsules





hypertension







Diskus





injection














8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

CSPC




Application

registration no


time

Key competitors





bound)

˄ර˅










Pharma Yangzi River


Injection




Chloride Injection



Shixin Pharma



ChaseSun






Dawnrays



injection


ሴ



Baike Pharma


SBP




≰䫉




injection









8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors



Pharma Sinopharm




Pharma
















Hansoh


Livzon



Qilu






Ruiyang Pharma


rejection reaction








Chengyi Pharma Puli

Pharma





SBP


Huahai Pharma






Hansoh Jutai Pharma










arthritis




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors































Wansheng Pharma


CR Double Crane



SBP











Icircα2aB屶ゃ







(emulsion)


Pharmaceutical









supplements


review

11132014 NA





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

3SBio






















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Tonghua Dongbao




registration no


time

Key competitors




including Hansoh




















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Fosun Pharma




registration no


time







SinoCelltech








Ther Hisun


Zhejiang Haizheng


Bio-Thera

and BJ Mabworks


Wanbang

NA


Jiangsu Wanbang

NA


targeting mAb




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Sihuan Pharma





Status start



including Salubris





Pharma



Sailike Pharma


(injection)





ASK Pharma




















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


















Ritonavir































8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook






Conjugate Vaccine




vaccine














8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




































8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance



10

25

5

75

125

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E175

20225

25275

30



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

10

20

30

40

23

24

25

26

27

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E-20

-15

-10

-5

0

0

200

400

600

800











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance


Jan 16 Jan 17Jul 16 Jul 17456789

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E30

35

40

45

50



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

25

50

75

100

15

20

25

10

30

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

200

400

600











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance


Jan 16 Jan 17Jul 16 Jul 17304050607080

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E

30

20

225

25

275



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

10

20

30

40

21

22

23

24

25

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E-60

-40

-20

0











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance



15

20

25

10

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E

25

3

35

2

4



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

1020304050

789101112

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

10

20

30

40

28

3

32

26

34











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Appendix 1















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


(as of 12072017)



Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1 23

45 6 7 8 9

10

11

12


2000

4000

6000

8000

10000



(as of 12072017)



Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1 23

45 6


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


(as of 12072017)



Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1

23 4 5 6 7 8

910 11 12

13

14

15


250

500

750

1000

1250

1500







Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1 2


1000

250

500

750



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook






Research







Equity Research


Equity Research





and QIS Research








8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




Apr-16

Apr-16

Dec-15

Dec-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

May-15

Apr-15

Mar-15

Feb-15

Nov-14

Oct-14

Oct-14

Aug-14

Aug-14

Aug-14

Jul-14

Oct-13

Aug-13

May-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Oct-12

Jun-12

Jun-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Mar-12

Oct-11

Oct-11

Jul-11

Jul-11

Apr-11

Apr-11

Mar-11

Mar-11

Nov-10

Oct-08

010203040506070

Aug-17

Mar-17

Nov-16

Mar-17

Aug-16

Oct-16

Jan-16

Jan-16

Nov-16

Aug-15

Jun-15

Oct-16

Dec-16

May-15

May-15

May-15

May-15

Jul-16

Feb-15

Apr-16

Dec-14

Apr-17

May-17

Dec-16

Oct-14

Dec-14

Aug-14

Nov-16

Aug-16

Feb-15

Jul-14

Aug-16

Aug-16

May-16

Mar-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-14

Jan-14

Filing time


Approval time



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





SBP






injection




injection











bound)



CSPC


Tablets









bound)




tablets






8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





Hengrui












SBP









CSPC







8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





5545

106103

10

4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2016 YTD Nov17


63

373734

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2016 YTD Nov17

Domestic MNCs




42

3532

14 13 12 118

4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




Province city

(EN)

Province city

(CN)

Recent

announcement

Status of





































8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

-

5

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E








8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook






2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E


YoY grow th -35 -108 -181 -270 -250 -230 -210 -180 -150 -120


YoY grow th 406 357 194 53 -40 -60 -80 -120 -150 -150


YoY grow th 1611 1297 867 600 300 200 50 -50 -50


YoY grow th 2167 263 167 71 67


YoY grow th 3750 684 500


YoY grow th 286 266 166 66 52 72 54 120 53 88


YoY grow th 105 193 10 60 60 50 40 30 20 20


YoY grow th 210 238 109 64 55 65 49 91 43 68


YoY grow th 44 89 -22 -05 50 41 38 30 30 30


YoY grow th 187 220 95 57 55 62 48 85 42 65



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




(RMBm)

Probability of

success (low

end)

Probability of

success (high

end)

Value per share

(prob adjusted

RMB)

Value per share

(prob adjusted HKD)




Subtotal

Generic drugs
















Subtotal

Total


















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook
























8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Jointown



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue YoYRMB bn

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E








8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



0

10

20

30

0

400

800

1200

1600

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1H16 1H17


687 689 688 690 688 684 681

247 237 233 227 225 225 225

66 74 79 83 87 91 94

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1H17






0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E



148

all other terminal

markets 852



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




12x 12x

8x

20x

8x

12x

18x

13x

29x

17x

0x

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x


EVEBITDA ftm PE ftm

Weighted Avg

PE 16x

Weighted Avg

EVEBITDA 11x

0x

20x

40x

60x

80x

EVEBITDA ftm PE ftm




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Universal Medical




327

2009

3802

5016

13 113 212 308

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E


9

32

4244

1

7 10

13

0

10

20

30

40

50

2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue Net profit







8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue Net profit


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



6-Dec














1530HK 3SBio Buy 178 141 159 72 4594 36 29 24 CNY 28 28 20 23 20 17 52 16 12







37 30 25 13 31 19 25 20 16 24 21 18

Plasma products



31 26 23 9 16 10 22 19 17 3 15 11

HC services






51 36 29 11 39 27 24 19 16 21 30 20




14 12 11 14 14 14 9 8 7 26 15 14


4543T Terumo Hold 4700 5270 5400 3855 17755 37 32 27 JPY 5 17 15 17 15 9 0 10 9

6869T Sysmex Buy 9800 8380 8640 6100 15517 42 37 33 JPY 3 14 14 23 21 9 13 10 11


36 31 28 14 13 12 17 16 10 8 9 9

Rating Target

Price (LC)

52-week Mkt cap




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22


14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21





10

15

20

25

30

35


16

19

22

25

28

31

34

37




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





-33

-25

-19

-18

-6

-4

3

11

12

13

16

17

22

30

39

63

82

89

97

98

31

40

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

SHANGHAI FUDAN-H

TONG REN TANG-H

CHINA SHINEWAY

CHINA PIONEER PH

DAWNRAYS PHARMAC

SINOPHARM-H

LEES PHARM

SHANGHAI PHARM-H

Universal Medical

GUANGZHOU BAIYUN

CHINA TRADITIONA

THE UNITED LABOR

SIHUAN PHARM

CHINA MEDICAL SY

BLOOMAGE BIOTE

SHANGHAI FOSUN-H

CONSUN PHARMACEU

CSPC PHARMACEUTI

SINO BIOPHARM

3SBIO INC

HSI

MSCI China HC

-51

-39

-35

-31

-24

-23

-23

-22

-11

-9

0

3

5

6

6

7

8

13

23

24

0

-6

-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30

SIHUAN PHARM

BLOOMAGE BIOTE

LEES PHARM

CHINA TRADITIONA

CONSUN PHARMACEU

SINO BIOPHARM

DAWNRAYS PHARMAC

SHANGHAI FUDAN-H

CHINA SHINEWAY

GUANGZHOU BAIYUN

CHINA PIONEER PH

SINOPHARM-H

CSPC PHARMACEUTI

SHANGHAI FOSUN-H

SHANGHAI PHARM-H

Universal Medical

CHINA MEDICAL SY

TONG REN TANG-H

THE UNITED LABOR

LIJUN INTL PHARM

HSI

MSCI China HC





-32

-22

-20

-18

-13

-12

-11

-11

-11

-9

-9

3

3

8

19

21

24

31

40

42

51

71

78

21

18

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

HARBIN PHARMA-A

HUALAN BIOLOGI-A

NANJING PHARMA-A

NORTH CHINA PH-A

TOPCHOICE MEDI-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

TASLY PHARMAC-A

JOINTOWN PHARM-A

HUMANWELL HEAL-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

YUNNAN BAIYAO-A

CHINA RESOURCE-A

BEIJING TONGRE-A

ZHEJIANG HISUN-A

KANGMEI PHARMA-A

TONGHUA DONGBA-A

SHANGHAI PHARM-A

CHINA MEHECO C-A

HUADONG MEDICI-A

AIER EYE HSPTL-A

SICHUAN KELUN-A

SHANGHAI FOSUN-A

JIANGSU HENGRU-A

CSI300

MSCI A China HC

-32

-30

-27

-24

-21

-17

-13

-12

-10

-9

-7

-5

-3

-2

-1

1

1

5

5

6

11

14

30

-11

-16

-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

TOPCHOICE MEDI-A

BEIJING TONGRE-A

NORTH CHINA PH-A

NANJING PHARMA-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

ZHEJIANG HISUN-A

SICHUAN KELUN-A

HUADONG MEDICI-A

HUMANWELL HEAL-A

CHINA RESOURCE-A

HARBIN PHARMA-A

AIER EYE HSPTL-A

TONGHUA DONGBA-A

SHANGHAI PHARM-A

SHANGHAI FOSUN-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

TASLY PHARMAC-A

YUNNAN BAIYAO-A

KANGMEI PHARMA-A

JOINTOWN PHARM-A

JIANGSU HENGRU-A

CHINA MEHECO C-A

HUALAN BIOLOGI-A

CSI300

MSCI A China HC



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




-25

44

55

155

167

18

30

64

-05 0 05 1 15 2

CHINA BIOLOGIC

ZLAB

ATHENEX

HCM

BEIGENE

SampP 500 Index

NASDAQ Index

MSCI US HC



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




0

7

31

15

18

28

18

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45


STOXX Europe

HSI


TOPIX


SampP 500

MSCI China HC

-4

-1

0

-6

-2

5

10

-6

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12


STOXX Europe

HSI


TOPIX


SampP 500

MSCI China HC




5

7

31

9

18

9

18

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

MSCI Europe Pharma

STOXX Europe

HSI

TOPIX Pharma

TOPIX

SampP 500 Pharma

SampP 500

MSCI China HC

-12

-1

0

-11

-2

-4

10

-6

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

MSCI Europe Pharma

STOXX Europe

HSI

TOPIX Pharma

TOPIX

SampP 500 Pharma

SampP 500

MSCI China HC





1099HK Sinopharm 04 04 03 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 05 05 06 06 05 05 05 04 04 03

1093HK CSPC 02 02 03 03 03 04 05 05 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 06

1177HK Sino Biopharm 03 03 03 04 03 04 03 03 03 05 04 04 03 03 03 03 03 03 04



0241HK Ali Health 02 02 01 01 01 01

1066HK Weigao 02 03 02 03 03 03 02 02 02 01 02 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01

1530HK 3SBio 01 01 01 01 01 01 01

2196HK Fosun Pharma 02 02 02 01 01 02 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 02

2186HK Luye Pharma 01 02 02 01 01

0460HK Sihuan 01 02 02 03 03 03 04 03 03 02 01 01 01



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




Application

registration no


time

Key competitors







injection













capsules


(injection)





















ChiCTR-IIR-

17012724






Pharma


tablets









8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors




⋩༽ਸ㜲䍘փ









˅



injection




chloride injection

㗏҉ส㊹13004≟䫐

ሴ









Topfond




Baiyunshan



Zhonghe Pharma


including Haisun


Tongrentang



Baiyunshan


Zhengyuan Pharma





Ṭሴ






Tablets (II)



Tablets (I)





compound tablets





Hengrui


release tablets (I)









8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors







Tianjin Pharma






Livzon


release capsules





Injection



Pharma (injection)



Baike Pharma



release tablets

















(Ċ)





(I)





coated capsuless




tablets



Onbrez

Breezhaler



tablets


reaction



capsules





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors






ゃ








oxide injection


ゃ









Haisun Forward


Qilu


capsules


Hengrui


(injection)







Huapont






擦(娜把鰭)




Kanghong Pharma



powder spray


蜮擦




induced nausea amp

vomiting













8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


registration no


time

Key competitors








Hengrui


Haiwangfu Pharma


injection


Hengrui




Medco




䞨


Haisun


Pharmaceutical



㗏҉ส㊹20005≟䫐

ሴ



ChaseSun


Qilu Pharma


Lingnan Pharma







injection




Lunan Pharma








Pharma Beilu Pharma












8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Hengrui Medicine




registration no


time

Key competitors


Pharma



bound)

˄

ර˅









Qilu


Baike Pharma





capsules









release tablets




chloride Injection










thrombocytopenia



acid for injection










injection






diseases






8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors





(injection)




Pharma













Pharma


coated Tablets








Tiancheng Pharma


Kanghong Pharma













condyloma

acuminatum

leukemia oncology



release cream













pound(16)B屶ゃ






ゃ




ゃ






8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


registration no


time

Key competitors















rejection reaction




tablets


rejection reaction












吿暗娩さ913004翰俉155660侷

頻B屶ゃ



tablets (I)



tablets (II)



tablets (III)






Wansheng Pharma








hypertension



perfusion)


B49)








Opthealmic Solution






induced nausea

vomiting




Pharma Luyin Pharma





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


registration no


time

Key competitors


inhalation


Breezhaler





for inhalation


Neohaler




Lunan Pharma




Emulsion Injection


Pharma





Pharma (injection)





betamethasone gel





䍘ሴ




powder


Neohaler





capsules





hypertension







Diskus





injection














8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

CSPC




Application

registration no


time

Key competitors





bound)

˄ර˅










Pharma Yangzi River


Injection




Chloride Injection



Shixin Pharma



ChaseSun






Dawnrays



injection


ሴ



Baike Pharma


SBP




≰䫉




injection









8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors



Pharma Sinopharm




Pharma
















Hansoh


Livzon



Qilu






Ruiyang Pharma


rejection reaction








Chengyi Pharma Puli

Pharma





SBP


Huahai Pharma






Hansoh Jutai Pharma










arthritis




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors































Wansheng Pharma


CR Double Crane



SBP











Icircα2aB屶ゃ







(emulsion)


Pharmaceutical









supplements


review

11132014 NA





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

3SBio






















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Tonghua Dongbao




registration no


time

Key competitors




including Hansoh




















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Fosun Pharma




registration no


time







SinoCelltech








Ther Hisun


Zhejiang Haizheng


Bio-Thera

and BJ Mabworks


Wanbang

NA


Jiangsu Wanbang

NA


targeting mAb




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Sihuan Pharma





Status start



including Salubris





Pharma



Sailike Pharma


(injection)





ASK Pharma




















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


















Ritonavir































8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook






Conjugate Vaccine




vaccine














8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




































8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance



10

25

5

75

125

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E175

20225

25275

30



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

10

20

30

40

23

24

25

26

27

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E-20

-15

-10

-5

0

0

200

400

600

800











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance


Jan 16 Jan 17Jul 16 Jul 17456789

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E30

35

40

45

50



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

25

50

75

100

15

20

25

10

30

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

200

400

600











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance


Jan 16 Jan 17Jul 16 Jul 17304050607080

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E

30

20

225

25

275



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

10

20

30

40

21

22

23

24

25

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E-60

-40

-20

0











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance



15

20

25

10

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E

25

3

35

2

4



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

1020304050

789101112

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

10

20

30

40

28

3

32

26

34











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Appendix 1















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


(as of 12072017)



Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1 23

45 6 7 8 9

10

11

12


2000

4000

6000

8000

10000



(as of 12072017)



Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1 23

45 6


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


(as of 12072017)



Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1

23 4 5 6 7 8

910 11 12

13

14

15


250

500

750

1000

1250

1500







Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1 2


1000

250

500

750



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook






Research







Equity Research


Equity Research





and QIS Research








8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





SBP






injection




injection











bound)



CSPC


Tablets









bound)




tablets






8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





Hengrui












SBP









CSPC







8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





5545

106103

10

4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2016 YTD Nov17


63

373734

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2016 YTD Nov17

Domestic MNCs




42

3532

14 13 12 118

4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




Province city

(EN)

Province city

(CN)

Recent

announcement

Status of





































8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

-

5

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E








8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook






2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E


YoY grow th -35 -108 -181 -270 -250 -230 -210 -180 -150 -120


YoY grow th 406 357 194 53 -40 -60 -80 -120 -150 -150


YoY grow th 1611 1297 867 600 300 200 50 -50 -50


YoY grow th 2167 263 167 71 67


YoY grow th 3750 684 500


YoY grow th 286 266 166 66 52 72 54 120 53 88


YoY grow th 105 193 10 60 60 50 40 30 20 20


YoY grow th 210 238 109 64 55 65 49 91 43 68


YoY grow th 44 89 -22 -05 50 41 38 30 30 30


YoY grow th 187 220 95 57 55 62 48 85 42 65



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




(RMBm)

Probability of

success (low

end)

Probability of

success (high

end)

Value per share

(prob adjusted

RMB)

Value per share

(prob adjusted HKD)




Subtotal

Generic drugs
















Subtotal

Total


















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook
























8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Jointown



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue YoYRMB bn

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E








8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



0

10

20

30

0

400

800

1200

1600

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1H16 1H17


687 689 688 690 688 684 681

247 237 233 227 225 225 225

66 74 79 83 87 91 94

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1H17






0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E



148

all other terminal

markets 852



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




12x 12x

8x

20x

8x

12x

18x

13x

29x

17x

0x

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x


EVEBITDA ftm PE ftm

Weighted Avg

PE 16x

Weighted Avg

EVEBITDA 11x

0x

20x

40x

60x

80x

EVEBITDA ftm PE ftm




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Universal Medical




327

2009

3802

5016

13 113 212 308

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E


9

32

4244

1

7 10

13

0

10

20

30

40

50

2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue Net profit







8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue Net profit


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



6-Dec














1530HK 3SBio Buy 178 141 159 72 4594 36 29 24 CNY 28 28 20 23 20 17 52 16 12







37 30 25 13 31 19 25 20 16 24 21 18

Plasma products



31 26 23 9 16 10 22 19 17 3 15 11

HC services






51 36 29 11 39 27 24 19 16 21 30 20




14 12 11 14 14 14 9 8 7 26 15 14


4543T Terumo Hold 4700 5270 5400 3855 17755 37 32 27 JPY 5 17 15 17 15 9 0 10 9

6869T Sysmex Buy 9800 8380 8640 6100 15517 42 37 33 JPY 3 14 14 23 21 9 13 10 11


36 31 28 14 13 12 17 16 10 8 9 9

Rating Target

Price (LC)

52-week Mkt cap




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22


14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21





10

15

20

25

30

35


16

19

22

25

28

31

34

37




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





-33

-25

-19

-18

-6

-4

3

11

12

13

16

17

22

30

39

63

82

89

97

98

31

40

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

SHANGHAI FUDAN-H

TONG REN TANG-H

CHINA SHINEWAY

CHINA PIONEER PH

DAWNRAYS PHARMAC

SINOPHARM-H

LEES PHARM

SHANGHAI PHARM-H

Universal Medical

GUANGZHOU BAIYUN

CHINA TRADITIONA

THE UNITED LABOR

SIHUAN PHARM

CHINA MEDICAL SY

BLOOMAGE BIOTE

SHANGHAI FOSUN-H

CONSUN PHARMACEU

CSPC PHARMACEUTI

SINO BIOPHARM

3SBIO INC

HSI

MSCI China HC

-51

-39

-35

-31

-24

-23

-23

-22

-11

-9

0

3

5

6

6

7

8

13

23

24

0

-6

-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30

SIHUAN PHARM

BLOOMAGE BIOTE

LEES PHARM

CHINA TRADITIONA

CONSUN PHARMACEU

SINO BIOPHARM

DAWNRAYS PHARMAC

SHANGHAI FUDAN-H

CHINA SHINEWAY

GUANGZHOU BAIYUN

CHINA PIONEER PH

SINOPHARM-H

CSPC PHARMACEUTI

SHANGHAI FOSUN-H

SHANGHAI PHARM-H

Universal Medical

CHINA MEDICAL SY

TONG REN TANG-H

THE UNITED LABOR

LIJUN INTL PHARM

HSI

MSCI China HC





-32

-22

-20

-18

-13

-12

-11

-11

-11

-9

-9

3

3

8

19

21

24

31

40

42

51

71

78

21

18

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

HARBIN PHARMA-A

HUALAN BIOLOGI-A

NANJING PHARMA-A

NORTH CHINA PH-A

TOPCHOICE MEDI-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

TASLY PHARMAC-A

JOINTOWN PHARM-A

HUMANWELL HEAL-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

YUNNAN BAIYAO-A

CHINA RESOURCE-A

BEIJING TONGRE-A

ZHEJIANG HISUN-A

KANGMEI PHARMA-A

TONGHUA DONGBA-A

SHANGHAI PHARM-A

CHINA MEHECO C-A

HUADONG MEDICI-A

AIER EYE HSPTL-A

SICHUAN KELUN-A

SHANGHAI FOSUN-A

JIANGSU HENGRU-A

CSI300

MSCI A China HC

-32

-30

-27

-24

-21

-17

-13

-12

-10

-9

-7

-5

-3

-2

-1

1

1

5

5

6

11

14

30

-11

-16

-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

TOPCHOICE MEDI-A

BEIJING TONGRE-A

NORTH CHINA PH-A

NANJING PHARMA-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

ZHEJIANG HISUN-A

SICHUAN KELUN-A

HUADONG MEDICI-A

HUMANWELL HEAL-A

CHINA RESOURCE-A

HARBIN PHARMA-A

AIER EYE HSPTL-A

TONGHUA DONGBA-A

SHANGHAI PHARM-A

SHANGHAI FOSUN-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

TASLY PHARMAC-A

YUNNAN BAIYAO-A

KANGMEI PHARMA-A

JOINTOWN PHARM-A

JIANGSU HENGRU-A

CHINA MEHECO C-A

HUALAN BIOLOGI-A

CSI300

MSCI A China HC



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




-25

44

55

155

167

18

30

64

-05 0 05 1 15 2

CHINA BIOLOGIC

ZLAB

ATHENEX

HCM

BEIGENE

SampP 500 Index

NASDAQ Index

MSCI US HC



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




0

7

31

15

18

28

18

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45


STOXX Europe

HSI


TOPIX


SampP 500

MSCI China HC

-4

-1

0

-6

-2

5

10

-6

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12


STOXX Europe

HSI


TOPIX


SampP 500

MSCI China HC




5

7

31

9

18

9

18

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

MSCI Europe Pharma

STOXX Europe

HSI

TOPIX Pharma

TOPIX

SampP 500 Pharma

SampP 500

MSCI China HC

-12

-1

0

-11

-2

-4

10

-6

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

MSCI Europe Pharma

STOXX Europe

HSI

TOPIX Pharma

TOPIX

SampP 500 Pharma

SampP 500

MSCI China HC





1099HK Sinopharm 04 04 03 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 05 05 06 06 05 05 05 04 04 03

1093HK CSPC 02 02 03 03 03 04 05 05 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 06

1177HK Sino Biopharm 03 03 03 04 03 04 03 03 03 05 04 04 03 03 03 03 03 03 04



0241HK Ali Health 02 02 01 01 01 01

1066HK Weigao 02 03 02 03 03 03 02 02 02 01 02 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01

1530HK 3SBio 01 01 01 01 01 01 01

2196HK Fosun Pharma 02 02 02 01 01 02 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 02

2186HK Luye Pharma 01 02 02 01 01

0460HK Sihuan 01 02 02 03 03 03 04 03 03 02 01 01 01



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




Application

registration no


time

Key competitors







injection













capsules


(injection)





















ChiCTR-IIR-

17012724






Pharma


tablets









8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors




⋩༽ਸ㜲䍘փ









˅



injection




chloride injection

㗏҉ส㊹13004≟䫐

ሴ









Topfond




Baiyunshan



Zhonghe Pharma


including Haisun


Tongrentang



Baiyunshan


Zhengyuan Pharma





Ṭሴ






Tablets (II)



Tablets (I)





compound tablets





Hengrui


release tablets (I)









8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors







Tianjin Pharma






Livzon


release capsules





Injection



Pharma (injection)



Baike Pharma



release tablets

















(Ċ)





(I)





coated capsuless




tablets



Onbrez

Breezhaler



tablets


reaction



capsules





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors






ゃ








oxide injection


ゃ









Haisun Forward


Qilu


capsules


Hengrui


(injection)







Huapont






擦(娜把鰭)




Kanghong Pharma



powder spray


蜮擦




induced nausea amp

vomiting













8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


registration no


time

Key competitors








Hengrui


Haiwangfu Pharma


injection


Hengrui




Medco




䞨


Haisun


Pharmaceutical



㗏҉ส㊹20005≟䫐

ሴ



ChaseSun


Qilu Pharma


Lingnan Pharma







injection




Lunan Pharma








Pharma Beilu Pharma












8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Hengrui Medicine




registration no


time

Key competitors


Pharma



bound)

˄

ර˅









Qilu


Baike Pharma





capsules









release tablets




chloride Injection










thrombocytopenia



acid for injection










injection






diseases






8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors





(injection)




Pharma













Pharma


coated Tablets








Tiancheng Pharma


Kanghong Pharma













condyloma

acuminatum

leukemia oncology



release cream













pound(16)B屶ゃ






ゃ




ゃ






8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


registration no


time

Key competitors















rejection reaction




tablets


rejection reaction












吿暗娩さ913004翰俉155660侷

頻B屶ゃ



tablets (I)



tablets (II)



tablets (III)






Wansheng Pharma








hypertension



perfusion)


B49)








Opthealmic Solution






induced nausea

vomiting




Pharma Luyin Pharma





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


registration no


time

Key competitors


inhalation


Breezhaler





for inhalation


Neohaler




Lunan Pharma




Emulsion Injection


Pharma





Pharma (injection)





betamethasone gel





䍘ሴ




powder


Neohaler





capsules





hypertension







Diskus





injection














8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

CSPC




Application

registration no


time

Key competitors





bound)

˄ර˅










Pharma Yangzi River


Injection




Chloride Injection



Shixin Pharma



ChaseSun






Dawnrays



injection


ሴ



Baike Pharma


SBP




≰䫉




injection









8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors



Pharma Sinopharm




Pharma
















Hansoh


Livzon



Qilu






Ruiyang Pharma


rejection reaction








Chengyi Pharma Puli

Pharma





SBP


Huahai Pharma






Hansoh Jutai Pharma










arthritis




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors































Wansheng Pharma


CR Double Crane



SBP











Icircα2aB屶ゃ







(emulsion)


Pharmaceutical









supplements


review

11132014 NA





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

3SBio






















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Tonghua Dongbao




registration no


time

Key competitors




including Hansoh




















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Fosun Pharma




registration no


time







SinoCelltech








Ther Hisun


Zhejiang Haizheng


Bio-Thera

and BJ Mabworks


Wanbang

NA


Jiangsu Wanbang

NA


targeting mAb




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Sihuan Pharma





Status start



including Salubris





Pharma



Sailike Pharma


(injection)





ASK Pharma




















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


















Ritonavir































8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook






Conjugate Vaccine




vaccine














8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




































8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance



10

25

5

75

125

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E175

20225

25275

30



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

10

20

30

40

23

24

25

26

27

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E-20

-15

-10

-5

0

0

200

400

600

800











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance


Jan 16 Jan 17Jul 16 Jul 17456789

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E30

35

40

45

50



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

25

50

75

100

15

20

25

10

30

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

200

400

600











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance


Jan 16 Jan 17Jul 16 Jul 17304050607080

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E

30

20

225

25

275



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

10

20

30

40

21

22

23

24

25

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E-60

-40

-20

0











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance



15

20

25

10

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E

25

3

35

2

4



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

1020304050

789101112

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

10

20

30

40

28

3

32

26

34











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Appendix 1















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


(as of 12072017)



Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1 23

45 6 7 8 9

10

11

12


2000

4000

6000

8000

10000



(as of 12072017)



Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1 23

45 6


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


(as of 12072017)



Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1

23 4 5 6 7 8

910 11 12

13

14

15


250

500

750

1000

1250

1500







Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1 2


1000

250

500

750



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook






Research







Equity Research


Equity Research





and QIS Research








8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





Hengrui












SBP









CSPC







8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





5545

106103

10

4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2016 YTD Nov17


63

373734

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2016 YTD Nov17

Domestic MNCs




42

3532

14 13 12 118

4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




Province city

(EN)

Province city

(CN)

Recent

announcement

Status of





































8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

-

5

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E








8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook






2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E


YoY grow th -35 -108 -181 -270 -250 -230 -210 -180 -150 -120


YoY grow th 406 357 194 53 -40 -60 -80 -120 -150 -150


YoY grow th 1611 1297 867 600 300 200 50 -50 -50


YoY grow th 2167 263 167 71 67


YoY grow th 3750 684 500


YoY grow th 286 266 166 66 52 72 54 120 53 88


YoY grow th 105 193 10 60 60 50 40 30 20 20


YoY grow th 210 238 109 64 55 65 49 91 43 68


YoY grow th 44 89 -22 -05 50 41 38 30 30 30


YoY grow th 187 220 95 57 55 62 48 85 42 65



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




(RMBm)

Probability of

success (low

end)

Probability of

success (high

end)

Value per share

(prob adjusted

RMB)

Value per share

(prob adjusted HKD)




Subtotal

Generic drugs
















Subtotal

Total


















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook
























8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Jointown



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue YoYRMB bn

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E








8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



0

10

20

30

0

400

800

1200

1600

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1H16 1H17


687 689 688 690 688 684 681

247 237 233 227 225 225 225

66 74 79 83 87 91 94

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1H17






0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E



148

all other terminal

markets 852



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




12x 12x

8x

20x

8x

12x

18x

13x

29x

17x

0x

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x


EVEBITDA ftm PE ftm

Weighted Avg

PE 16x

Weighted Avg

EVEBITDA 11x

0x

20x

40x

60x

80x

EVEBITDA ftm PE ftm




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Universal Medical




327

2009

3802

5016

13 113 212 308

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E


9

32

4244

1

7 10

13

0

10

20

30

40

50

2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue Net profit







8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue Net profit


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



6-Dec














1530HK 3SBio Buy 178 141 159 72 4594 36 29 24 CNY 28 28 20 23 20 17 52 16 12







37 30 25 13 31 19 25 20 16 24 21 18

Plasma products



31 26 23 9 16 10 22 19 17 3 15 11

HC services






51 36 29 11 39 27 24 19 16 21 30 20




14 12 11 14 14 14 9 8 7 26 15 14


4543T Terumo Hold 4700 5270 5400 3855 17755 37 32 27 JPY 5 17 15 17 15 9 0 10 9

6869T Sysmex Buy 9800 8380 8640 6100 15517 42 37 33 JPY 3 14 14 23 21 9 13 10 11


36 31 28 14 13 12 17 16 10 8 9 9

Rating Target

Price (LC)

52-week Mkt cap




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22


14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21





10

15

20

25

30

35


16

19

22

25

28

31

34

37




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





-33

-25

-19

-18

-6

-4

3

11

12

13

16

17

22

30

39

63

82

89

97

98

31

40

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

SHANGHAI FUDAN-H

TONG REN TANG-H

CHINA SHINEWAY

CHINA PIONEER PH

DAWNRAYS PHARMAC

SINOPHARM-H

LEES PHARM

SHANGHAI PHARM-H

Universal Medical

GUANGZHOU BAIYUN

CHINA TRADITIONA

THE UNITED LABOR

SIHUAN PHARM

CHINA MEDICAL SY

BLOOMAGE BIOTE

SHANGHAI FOSUN-H

CONSUN PHARMACEU

CSPC PHARMACEUTI

SINO BIOPHARM

3SBIO INC

HSI

MSCI China HC

-51

-39

-35

-31

-24

-23

-23

-22

-11

-9

0

3

5

6

6

7

8

13

23

24

0

-6

-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30

SIHUAN PHARM

BLOOMAGE BIOTE

LEES PHARM

CHINA TRADITIONA

CONSUN PHARMACEU

SINO BIOPHARM

DAWNRAYS PHARMAC

SHANGHAI FUDAN-H

CHINA SHINEWAY

GUANGZHOU BAIYUN

CHINA PIONEER PH

SINOPHARM-H

CSPC PHARMACEUTI

SHANGHAI FOSUN-H

SHANGHAI PHARM-H

Universal Medical

CHINA MEDICAL SY

TONG REN TANG-H

THE UNITED LABOR

LIJUN INTL PHARM

HSI

MSCI China HC





-32

-22

-20

-18

-13

-12

-11

-11

-11

-9

-9

3

3

8

19

21

24

31

40

42

51

71

78

21

18

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

HARBIN PHARMA-A

HUALAN BIOLOGI-A

NANJING PHARMA-A

NORTH CHINA PH-A

TOPCHOICE MEDI-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

TASLY PHARMAC-A

JOINTOWN PHARM-A

HUMANWELL HEAL-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

YUNNAN BAIYAO-A

CHINA RESOURCE-A

BEIJING TONGRE-A

ZHEJIANG HISUN-A

KANGMEI PHARMA-A

TONGHUA DONGBA-A

SHANGHAI PHARM-A

CHINA MEHECO C-A

HUADONG MEDICI-A

AIER EYE HSPTL-A

SICHUAN KELUN-A

SHANGHAI FOSUN-A

JIANGSU HENGRU-A

CSI300

MSCI A China HC

-32

-30

-27

-24

-21

-17

-13

-12

-10

-9

-7

-5

-3

-2

-1

1

1

5

5

6

11

14

30

-11

-16

-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

TOPCHOICE MEDI-A

BEIJING TONGRE-A

NORTH CHINA PH-A

NANJING PHARMA-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

ZHEJIANG HISUN-A

SICHUAN KELUN-A

HUADONG MEDICI-A

HUMANWELL HEAL-A

CHINA RESOURCE-A

HARBIN PHARMA-A

AIER EYE HSPTL-A

TONGHUA DONGBA-A

SHANGHAI PHARM-A

SHANGHAI FOSUN-A

CHINA NATIONAL-A

TASLY PHARMAC-A

YUNNAN BAIYAO-A

KANGMEI PHARMA-A

JOINTOWN PHARM-A

JIANGSU HENGRU-A

CHINA MEHECO C-A

HUALAN BIOLOGI-A

CSI300

MSCI A China HC



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




-25

44

55

155

167

18

30

64

-05 0 05 1 15 2

CHINA BIOLOGIC

ZLAB

ATHENEX

HCM

BEIGENE

SampP 500 Index

NASDAQ Index

MSCI US HC



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




0

7

31

15

18

28

18

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45


STOXX Europe

HSI


TOPIX


SampP 500

MSCI China HC

-4

-1

0

-6

-2

5

10

-6

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12


STOXX Europe

HSI


TOPIX


SampP 500

MSCI China HC




5

7

31

9

18

9

18

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

MSCI Europe Pharma

STOXX Europe

HSI

TOPIX Pharma

TOPIX

SampP 500 Pharma

SampP 500

MSCI China HC

-12

-1

0

-11

-2

-4

10

-6

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

MSCI Europe Pharma

STOXX Europe

HSI

TOPIX Pharma

TOPIX

SampP 500 Pharma

SampP 500

MSCI China HC





1099HK Sinopharm 04 04 03 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 05 05 06 06 05 05 05 04 04 03

1093HK CSPC 02 02 03 03 03 04 05 05 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 06

1177HK Sino Biopharm 03 03 03 04 03 04 03 03 03 05 04 04 03 03 03 03 03 03 04



0241HK Ali Health 02 02 01 01 01 01

1066HK Weigao 02 03 02 03 03 03 02 02 02 01 02 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01

1530HK 3SBio 01 01 01 01 01 01 01

2196HK Fosun Pharma 02 02 02 01 01 02 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 02

2186HK Luye Pharma 01 02 02 01 01

0460HK Sihuan 01 02 02 03 03 03 04 03 03 02 01 01 01



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




Application

registration no


time

Key competitors







injection













capsules


(injection)





















ChiCTR-IIR-

17012724






Pharma


tablets









8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors




⋩༽ਸ㜲䍘փ









˅



injection




chloride injection

㗏҉ส㊹13004≟䫐

ሴ









Topfond




Baiyunshan



Zhonghe Pharma


including Haisun


Tongrentang



Baiyunshan


Zhengyuan Pharma





Ṭሴ






Tablets (II)



Tablets (I)





compound tablets





Hengrui


release tablets (I)









8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors







Tianjin Pharma






Livzon


release capsules





Injection



Pharma (injection)



Baike Pharma



release tablets

















(Ċ)





(I)





coated capsuless




tablets



Onbrez

Breezhaler



tablets


reaction



capsules





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors






ゃ








oxide injection


ゃ









Haisun Forward


Qilu


capsules


Hengrui


(injection)







Huapont






擦(娜把鰭)




Kanghong Pharma



powder spray


蜮擦




induced nausea amp

vomiting













8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


registration no


time

Key competitors








Hengrui


Haiwangfu Pharma


injection


Hengrui




Medco




䞨


Haisun


Pharmaceutical



㗏҉ส㊹20005≟䫐

ሴ



ChaseSun


Qilu Pharma


Lingnan Pharma







injection




Lunan Pharma








Pharma Beilu Pharma












8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Hengrui Medicine




registration no


time

Key competitors


Pharma



bound)

˄

ර˅









Qilu


Baike Pharma





capsules









release tablets




chloride Injection










thrombocytopenia



acid for injection










injection






diseases






8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors





(injection)




Pharma













Pharma


coated Tablets








Tiancheng Pharma


Kanghong Pharma













condyloma

acuminatum

leukemia oncology



release cream













pound(16)B屶ゃ






ゃ




ゃ






8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


registration no


time

Key competitors















rejection reaction




tablets


rejection reaction












吿暗娩さ913004翰俉155660侷

頻B屶ゃ



tablets (I)



tablets (II)



tablets (III)






Wansheng Pharma








hypertension



perfusion)


B49)








Opthealmic Solution






induced nausea

vomiting




Pharma Luyin Pharma





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


registration no


time

Key competitors


inhalation


Breezhaler





for inhalation


Neohaler




Lunan Pharma




Emulsion Injection


Pharma





Pharma (injection)





betamethasone gel





䍘ሴ




powder


Neohaler





capsules





hypertension







Diskus





injection














8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

CSPC




Application

registration no


time

Key competitors





bound)

˄ර˅










Pharma Yangzi River


Injection




Chloride Injection



Shixin Pharma



ChaseSun






Dawnrays



injection


ሴ



Baike Pharma


SBP




≰䫉




injection









8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors



Pharma Sinopharm




Pharma
















Hansoh


Livzon



Qilu






Ruiyang Pharma


rejection reaction








Chengyi Pharma Puli

Pharma





SBP


Huahai Pharma






Hansoh Jutai Pharma










arthritis




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


Application

registration no


time

Key competitors































Wansheng Pharma


CR Double Crane



SBP











Icircα2aB屶ゃ







(emulsion)


Pharmaceutical









supplements


review

11132014 NA





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

3SBio






















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Tonghua Dongbao




registration no


time

Key competitors




including Hansoh




















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Fosun Pharma




registration no


time







SinoCelltech








Ther Hisun


Zhejiang Haizheng


Bio-Thera

and BJ Mabworks


Wanbang

NA


Jiangsu Wanbang

NA


targeting mAb




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Sihuan Pharma





Status start



including Salubris





Pharma



Sailike Pharma


(injection)





ASK Pharma




















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


















Ritonavir































8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook






Conjugate Vaccine




vaccine














8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




































8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance



10

25

5

75

125

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E175

20225

25275

30



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

10

20

30

40

23

24

25

26

27

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E-20

-15

-10

-5

0

0

200

400

600

800











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance


Jan 16 Jan 17Jul 16 Jul 17456789

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E30

35

40

45

50



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

25

50

75

100

15

20

25

10

30

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

200

400

600











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance


Jan 16 Jan 17Jul 16 Jul 17304050607080

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E

30

20

225

25

275



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

10

20

30

40

21

22

23

24

25

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E-60

-40

-20

0











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook









Price Performance



15

20

25

10

Margin Trends


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E

25

3

35

2

4



14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

1020304050

789101112

Solvency


14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

10

20

30

40

28

3

32

26

34











8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook

Appendix 1















8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


(as of 12072017)



Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1 23

45 6 7 8 9

10

11

12


2000

4000

6000

8000

10000



(as of 12072017)



Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1 23

45 6


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook


(as of 12072017)



Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1

23 4 5 6 7 8

910 11 12

13

14

15


250

500

750

1000

1250

1500







Date

Secu

rity

pric

e

1 2


1000

250

500

750



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook




8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook





8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook



8 December 2017

Health Care

2018 Outlook






Research







Equity Research


Equity Research





and QIS Research








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