Charles SCAWTHORN Junji KIYONO

Kyoto University

Earthquake Risk Reduction 3- Mitigation and ERR Program Development

1. Concepts and Terminology2. Hazard, Vulnerability & Risk

Assessment 3. Mitigation and ERR Program

Development

Mitigation Risk Mitigation Alternatives Operational Risk Transfer Develop the Program

Benefit-cost ratio Acceptable risk

Implement the Program Funding Seismic retrofit Emergency planning

Maintain the Program

Key Terms

Mitigation

Four basic methods for Mitigation:StructuralLocationalOperationalRisk Transfer

Structural (using buildings as an example)

(a) moment frame

(d) base isolation

Bracing Types

“K”

“V”

Chevron

eccentric

“X”

diagonal(b) braced frame

(c) shear wall

(e) damped frame

CPU

(f) active control system: ground motion sensor, processor, and

controlled mass

Seismic Retrofit

s

Locational

California Alquist-Priolo fault map, showing location of fault, and zone within which geologic investigation is required

AP Zone

Fault

Actual fault

Shaking intensity map

Operational

EOC Director(Management)

Finance/Administration Logistics

Planning/Intelligence

Operations

EOC Director(Management)

Finance/Administration

LogisticsPlanning/

IntelligenceOperations

Operational Area EOC

Local Government EOC

Single buildings

Insurance company

Single buildings

Insurance company

Single buildings

Insurance company

Reinsurance company

Risk Transfer

Mitigation of damage and loss is possible at each step of earthquake loss process; earthquake occurs, primary hazards, primary damage, secondary hazard/damage, primary loss, and secondary loss.

Risk Mitigation Alternatives

EARTHQUAKE OCCURSEARTHQUAKE OCCURS

PRIMARY HAZARDS:Faulting, Shaking, Liquefaction, Landsliding, Tsunami…

PRIMARY HAZARDS:Faulting, Shaking, Liquefaction, Landsliding, Tsunami…

SECONDARY LOSS:Business / Operations InterruptionMarket Share, Reputation…

SECONDARY LOSS:Business / Operations InterruptionMarket Share, Reputation…

PRIMARY LOSS:Life / Injury, Repair Costs, Function, Communications/Control…

PRIMARY LOSS:Life / Injury, Repair Costs, Function, Communications/Control…

SECONDARY HAZARD / DAMAGE:Fire, Hazmat, Flooding…

SECONDARY HAZARD / DAMAGE:Fire, Hazmat, Flooding…

PRIMARY DAMAGE:Building / StructuralNonstructural / Equipment

PRIMARY DAMAGE:Building / StructuralNonstructural / Equipment

MITIGATION

Improved emergency planning and response; insurance…

Improved emergency planning and response; insurance…

Hazard mapping; ground remediation; tsunami walls…

Bracing and strengthening, reduction of mass, base isolation, structural control…

Improved storage/infrastructure, better emergency response…

RESULT

Demand (hazard) eliminated or reduced

Demand (hazard) eliminated or reduced

Capacity (strength…)

increased

Capacity (strength…)

increased

Loss avoided or shared

Loss avoided or shared

Secondary demandseliminated or reduced

Secondary demandseliminated or reduced

Earthquakes are a problem, in the most general sense, solving a problem has three basic phases.

Phase 1: Understanding the problem

Phase 2: Finding the solution

Phase 3:Putting the solution into effect

Outline of Risk Reduction Program

Pre-program

Assess the Risk

Develop the Program

N

Acceptable?YStop

Acceptable?

Y

N

Implement the Program

Maintain the Program

Factors - Seismic environment? - Organization / decision-making - Responsibility / liability

Data - Seismic hazard - Exposure - life - property - business / function - revenue - data - market share - reputation / image - Vulnerability - Assessment

Mitigation Options - Locational - Redundancy / backup - Move - Structural - Strengthen structures - Brace equpment / furnishings - Operational - Emerency Plan - Backup data - Transfer - Insurance - Contracts

Measuring Benefits

Internal Rate of Return is the discount rate that “sets the net present value of the stream of net benefits [and costs] equal to zero”- effectively a measure of the return on investment

( )

( cos )

PV allfuturebenefitsBCR

PV allfuture tsBenefit Cost Ratio

( ) ( cos )LCC PV allfuturebenefits PV allfuture ts

Life Cycle Cost

Cost Damage

$

Design Level

Tot Cost

Constr.Cost

Identify the assets (people, property, function) at risk.

The corresponding losses for people, property and function are death and injury, financial loss, and business interruption, revenue, market share.

Establishing (i.e. quantifying) the seismic hazard

It is a representation of how strongly the ground will shake and how often it is likely to do so.

Developing performance objectives No loss of life (no significant collapse hazard), limited

property loss, no loss of essential equipment, and restoration of operation onsite or backup site within the time appropriate for the organization.

Performing first a risk screening and then, for selected structures, a more detailed review

Assess the Risk

Developing the program, which consists of determining the acceptable risk, the opinions that exist for reducing the current risk to an acceptable level, the costs of doing that, and how it should be accomplished.

Having performed risk screening, facilities may be usefully grouped into several categories, such as

I. Probable high risk II. Possible high risk III. Probable low risk

The category I and category II facilities should be subjected to a more detailed analysis.

All the category I and II facilities can be ranked according to their risk, mitigation costs, or other criteria. The ranking is based on a benefit-cost ratio.

The final decision as to what facilities to mitigate will depend on available budget and is the final expression of the organization’s acceptable risk.

Develop the Program

Retaining seismic retrofit design professionals: Initial investigation and screening Detailed investigation and conceptual retrofit design Construction documents and construction support

Funding the program; the following sources should generally considered when planning programs of seismic mitigation.

General operating and maintenance funds Bond issues Special use fee Hazard mitigation grants Tax preferences and credits

Coordinating with other parts of the organization; it is very important to include earthquake risk mitigation measures with other facets of an organization’s asset management program.

Implement the Program

Organizations are dynamic and facilities, operations, and personnel are constantly changing. Thus documentation of the step taken, including the process and criteria, is an important step to complete.

As new facilities or operations are developed, the same or enhanced criteria can be applied to them, thus retaining the overall balance of earthquake mitigation program.

As new personnel join the organization, they can review the earthquake mitigation program documentation and maintain the overall goals.

Maintain the Program

SummaryAn Earthquake Risk Reduction Program involves the following steps:

1. ASSETS: Identify and map the assets at risk – the people, property, business and cultural treasures. Where are they, how many are they, what is their value?

2. HAZARDS: Map the earthquake hazards that threaten these assets. Hazards include faulting, shaking, liquefaction, tsunami, landslide, fire.

3. VULNERABILITY: Assess the vulnerability of each asset to the hazards – is an highly vulnerable, moderately, or just low?

4. ANALYZE: Combine the information on Assets, Hazards and Vulnerability into a Risk Analysis. Map the areas of High Risk.

5. MITIGATION: Based on the assets, hazards and vulnerabilities, identify various ways in which the risk can be lowered. Select the mitigation method that makes the most sense – ie, is most effective for the least cost.

6. DEVELOP THE PROGRAM: Having a mitigation package, gather community support and find ways to pay for the mitigation. Develop a Plan for doing the mitigation over a several year timeframe.

7. IMPLEMENT THE PROGRAM: Do it. Don’t stop. Earthquakes won’t wait.