Honolulu Housing Affordability By Occupation

Charles P. WathenSeptember 25, 2008

Next Endangered Species?

OverviewThe following presentation examines

Honolulu’s housing affordability (single-family housing, condominium and rental) by comparing:IncomeShelter CostOccupation TypeYear (2000, 2003, 2006 and 2008)

Current Situation77% of homeowners in Honolulu are over the

age 0f 52.The first of the baby boomers are eligible for

Social Security and are beginning to retire.Demand will be created to replace the

retiring workers.Housing prices have risen over 115% while

annual income averages have only increased 20-25% over the last 8 years.

What does this mean?

Housing Affordability Crisis

Housing Affordability CrisisNew workers to replace the retiring baby

boomers cannot afford to purchase or rent housing in Honolulu.

There are many markets across the country where the new workers can afford to purchase or rent housing.

Rents will continue to increase until they are more in line with the value of homes and condos, further worsening the problem.

There are options, but regulatory barriers are preventing possible solutions.

The Analysis

The AnalysisHow many job holders by occupation does it

take to afford the median house, condo or rental in Honolulu for the years 2000, 2003, 2006 and 2008 by various occupations.

The analysis has been performed for the Honolulu area (data is also available for the combined non-metro markets of Kauai, Maui and Hawaii).

Separate analyses are performed for Single-Family Housing, Condominium and Rental.

The Analysis Cont.Job categories and salaries are provided by the Bureau

of Labor Statistics and include 5 income strata's (over 2,500 possibilities) including 10th percentile, 25th percentile, median, 75th percentile and 90th percentile.

Affordability of the single-family housing, condo or rent is formulated based on liberal underwriting standards (single-family housing and condo) and fair market rents (rents).

Median house price (single-family housing and condo) is provided by Honolulu Board of Realtor’s Statistics.

Fair Market Rents are provided by the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).

Analysis Sample

OCC_CODEOCC_TITLE A_PCT10 A_PCT25 A_MEDIAN A_PCT75 A_PCT90 YEAR

Loan amount PCT 10 income

can support

Loan amount PCT 25 income

can support

Loan amount median income

can support

Loan amount PCT 75 income

can support

Loan amount PCT 90 income

can support

Median home price

number of this

occupation (PCT

10 job holders )

it takes to

purchase median

home

number of this

occupation (PCT

25 job holders )

it takes to

purchase median

home

number of this

occupation

(MEDIAN job

holders ) it takes

to purchase

median home

number of this

occupation (PCT

75 job holders )

it takes to

purchase median

home

number of this

occupation (PCT

90 job holders )

it takes to

purchase median

home47-2221 Structural iron and steel workers 38672 46536 56448 63063 67253 2008 $161,252 $194,045 $235,376 $262,959 $280,429 $599,000 3.71 3.09 2.54 2.28 2.1447-3011 Helpers--brickmasons, blockmasons, stonemasons, and tile and marble setters20475 22943 29463 48888 53844 2008 $85,376 $95,665 $122,855 $203,853 $224,518 $599,000 7.02 6.26 4.88 2.94 2.6747-3012 Helpers--carpenters 20853 23373 32067 38063 47145 2008 $86,953 $97,461 $133,713 $158,713 $196,585 $599,000 6.89 6.15 4.48 3.77 3.0547-3013 Helpers--electricians 23195 32057 36152 41013 47366 2008 $96,716 $133,669 $150,744 $171,016 $197,504 $599,000 6.19 4.48 3.97 3.50 3.0347-3014 Helpers--painters, paperhangers, plasterers, and stucco masons16727 17819 19646 22365 28088 2008 $69,746 $74,299 $81,918 $93,257 $117,119 $599,000 8.59 8.06 7.31 6.42 5.1147-3015 Helpers--pipelayers, plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters21725 24308 30293 35952 39596 2008 $90,587 $101,357 $126,313 $149,912 $165,105 $599,000 6.61 5.91 4.74 4.00 3.6347-3016 Helpers--roofers 19583 21525 24507 28676 32277 2008 $81,655 $89,755 $102,189 $119,571 $134,588 $599,000 7.34 6.67 5.86 5.01 4.4547-3019 Helpers, construction trades, all other 20780 24234 27405 29978 31574 2008 $86,646 $101,051 $114,273 $125,000 $131,655 $599,000 6.91 5.93 5.24 4.79 4.5547-4011 Construction and building inspectors 40908 47345 55703 66455 76997 2008 $170,578 $197,417 $232,268 $277,101 $321,059 $599,000 3.51 3.03 2.58 2.16 1.8747-4021 Elevator installers and repairers 44898 58391 80336 96138 105347 2008 $187,215 $243,476 $334,982 $400,875 $439,273 $599,000 3.20 2.46 1.79 1.49 1.3647-4041 Hazardous materials removal workers 23993 27962 32351 43134 56144 2008 $100,044 $116,594 $134,895 $179,860 $234,107 $599,000 5.99 5.14 4.44 3.33 2.5647-4099 Construction and related workers, all other14847 15005 17462 43008 68922 2008 $61,909 $62,566 $72,811 $179,334 $287,390 $599,000 9.68 9.57 8.23 3.34 2.0849-0000 Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations23331 30881 43901 58716 72440 2008 $97,285 $128,765 $183,056 $244,833 $302,058 $599,000 6.16 4.65 3.27 2.45 1.9849-1011 First-line supervisors/managers of mechanics, installers, and repairers38745 47649 62423 78645 92652 2008 $161,559 $198,686 $260,289 $327,933 $386,339 $599,000 3.71 3.01 2.30 1.83 1.5549-2011 Computer, automated teller, and office machine repairers23898 27804 34608 50285 68040 2008 $99,650 $115,937 $144,308 $209,676 $283,713 $599,000 6.01 5.17 4.15 2.86 2.1149-2022 Telecommunications equipment installers and repairers, except line installers42557 52511 64659 73049 77837 2008 $177,452 $218,958 $269,614 $304,597 $324,562 $599,000 3.38 2.74 2.22 1.97 1.8549-2093 Electrical and electronics installers and repairers, transportation equipment35081 40226 45570 49350 52301 2008 $146,278 $167,732 $190,017 $205,779 $218,082 $599,000 4.09 3.57 3.15 2.91 2.7549-2094 Electrical and electronics repairers, commercial and industrial equipment43512 51167 61478 71726 79139 2008 $181,436 $213,354 $256,348 $299,080 $329,991 $599,000 3.30 2.81 2.34 2.00 1.8249-2098 Security and fire alarm systems installers27300 30188 36036 44940 51954 2008 $113,835 $125,876 $150,263 $187,390 $216,637 $599,000 5.26 4.76 3.99 3.20 2.7649-3011 Aircraft mechanics and service technicians37055 44258 58485 69216 81995 2008 $154,509 $184,544 $243,870 $288,616 $341,900 $599,000 3.88 3.25 2.46 2.08 1.7549-3021 Automotive body and related repairers 21756 25841 34377 41822 54117 2008 $90,718 $107,749 $143,345 $174,387 $225,657 $599,000 6.60 5.56 4.18 3.43 2.6549-3023 Automotive service technicians and mechanics22817 28277 35606 46085 56679 2008 $95,140 $117,907 $148,467 $192,163 $236,340 $599,000 6.30 5.08 4.03 3.12 2.5349-3031 Bus and truck mechanics and diesel engine specialists32571 38441 45444 51681 59934 2008 $135,814 $160,289 $189,492 $215,499 $249,912 $599,000 4.41 3.74 3.16 2.78 2.4049-3042 Mobile heavy equipment mechanics, except engines34209 49571 58821 66927 75915 2008 $142,644 $206,699 $245,271 $279,072 $316,550 $599,000 4.20 2.90 2.44 2.15 1.8949-3053 Outdoor power equipment and other small engine mechanics24801 31395 36057 48615 86762 2008 $103,415 $130,911 $150,350 $202,714 $361,777 $599,000 5.79 4.58 3.98 2.95 1.6649-3093 Tire repairers and changers 15824 19572 23447 32508 45927 2008 $65,981 $81,611 $97,767 $135,552 $191,506 $599,000 9.08 7.34 6.13 4.42 3.1349-9021 Heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers25316 31437 48605 62423 70550 2008 $105,560 $131,086 $202,671 $260,289 $294,177 $599,000 5.67 4.57 2.96 2.30 2.04

Occupat ion

Income

Year

Loan

$

Medi a

n

$

#

Job

Holders

Single-Family Housing Market – 3 Bedroom

Single-Family Housing Summary

2008

Year 10 PCT 25 PCT Median 75 PCT 90 PCT Total Percent0-1

2000

1 5 8 33 67 114 5.04%1.01 - 2 34 83 154 206 247 724 32.04%2.01 - 3 119 129 131 124 97 600 26.55%

3.01 plus 298 235 159 89 41 822 36.37%Total 452 452 452 452 452 2,260 100.00%

10 PCT 25 PCT Median 75 PCT 90 PCT Total Percent0-1

2003

4 6 7 16 43 76 3.63%1.01 - 2 16 45 104 165 206 536 25.58%2.01 - 3 79 111 126 119 107 542 25.87%

3.01 plus 320 257 182 119 63 941 44.92%Total 419 419 419 419 419 2,095 100.00%

10 PCT 25 PCT Median 75 PCT 90 PCT Total Percent0-1

2006

- - 4 7 20 31 1.21%1.01 - 2 4 7 11 52 113 187 7.32%2.01 - 3 10 31 105 155 142 443 17.34%

3.01 plus 497 473 391 297 236 1,894 74.13%Total 511 511 511 511 511 2,555 100.00%

2008 10 PCT 25 PCT Median 75 PCT 90 PCT Total Percent0-1

2008

- - 4 7 20 31 1.21%1.01 - 2 4 9 19 72 134 238 9.32%2.01 - 3 14 52 139 159 147 511 20.00%

3.01 plus 493 450 349 273 210 1,775 69.47%Total 511 511 511 511 511 2,555 100.00%

Total All 2000 2003 2006 2008 Total Percent0-1

Total All

  114 76 31 31 252 2.66%1.01 - 2   724 536 187 238 1,685 17.80%2.01 - 3   600 542 443 511 2,096 22.14%

3.01 plus   822 941 1,894 1,775 5,432 57.39%Total   2,260 2,095 2,555 2,555 9,465 100.00%

Single-Family Housing Affordability By Occupants

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2000 2003 2006 2008

114 76 31 31

724 536187 238

600542

443 511

822941 1894 1775

3.01+

2.01-3

1.01-2

0-1

* - Based on all by job possibilities.

Single-Family Housing ConclusionIn 2000, 5% of all job possibilities could

afford the median house with one income.In 2008, this has decreased to 1% of all job

possibilities which equates to a 80% decrease.

In 2000, over 36% of all job possibilities required over 3 job holders to afford the median house.In 2008, this has skyrocketed to over 69%.

Almost 90% of all dual income marries couples still cannot afford the median house price in Honolulu.

Condominium Market – 1.75 Bedroom

Condominium Summary

2008

Year 10 PCT 25 PCT Median 75 PCT 90 PCT Total Percent0-1

2000

79 135 210 286 358 1,068 47.26%1.01 - 2 219 221 198 154 92 884 39.12%2.01 - 3 151 96 44 12 2 305 13.50%

3.01 plus 3 - - - - 3 0.13%Total 452 452 452 452 452 2,260 100.00%

10 PCT 25 PCT Median 75 PCT 90 PCT Total Percent0-1

2003

23 54 117 187 253 634 30.26%1.01 - 2 170 203 203 190 153 919 43.87%2.01 - 3 122 115 90 41 13 381 18.19%

3.01 plus 104 47 9 1 - 161 7.68%Total 419 419 419 419 419 2,095 100.00%

10 PCT 25 PCT Median 75 PCT 90 PCT Total Percent0-1

2006

4 7 15 59 133 218 8.53%1.01 - 2 54 132 211 256 248 901 35.26%2.01 - 3 150 149 145 118 101 663 25.95%

3.01 plus 303 223 140 78 29 773 30.25%Total 511 511 511 511 511 2,555 100.00%

10 PCT 25 PCT Median 75 PCT 90 PCT Total Percent0-1

2008

4 8 22 76 144 254 9.94%1.01 - 2 70 147 223 252 247 939 36.75%2.01 - 3 151 152 135 123 94 655 25.64%

3.01 plus 286 204 131 60 26 707 27.67%Total 511 511 511 511 511 2,555 100.00%

Total All 2000 2003 2006 2008 Total Percent0-1

Total All

  1,068 634 218 254 2,174 22.97%1.01 - 2   884 919 901 939 3,643 38.49%2.01 - 3   305 381 663 655 2,004 21.17%

3.01 plus   3 161 773 707 1,644 17.37%Total   2,260 2,095 2,555 2,555 9,465 100.00%

Condominium Affordability By Occupants

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2000 2003 2006 2008

1068634

218 254

884

919

901 939

305

381663 655

3161

773 7073.01+

2.01-3

1.01-2

0-1

* - Based on all job possibilities.

Condominium ConclusionIn 2000, over 47% of all job possibilities

could afford the median condo with one income.In 2008, this has decreased to 10% of all

job possibilities which equates to over a 79% decrease.

In 2000, there were less than 1% of job possibilities that required over 3 job holders to afford the median house.In 2008, this has jumped to over 27%.

Rental Market – 3 Bedroom

Rental Summary

2008

Year 10 PCT 25 PCT Median 75 PCT 90 PCT Total Percent0-1

2000

39 92 167 246 317 861 38.10%1.01 - 2 208 223 216 184 128 959 42.43%2.01 - 3 137 117 65 22 7 348 15.40%

3.01 plus 68 20 4 - - 92 4.07%Total 452 452 452 452 452 2,260 100.00%

10 PCT 25 PCT Median 75 PCT 90 PCT Total Percent0-1

2003

53 109 181 256 309 908 43.34%1.01 - 2 206 206 193 151 107 863 41.19%2.01 - 3 160 104 45 12 3 324 15.47%

3.01 plus - - - - - - 0.00%Total 419 419 419 419 419 2,095 100.00%

10 PCT 25 PCT Median 75 PCT 90 PCT Total Percent0-1

2006

12 33 108 207 271 631 24.70%1.01 - 2 191 247 260 220 208 1,126 44.07%2.01 - 3 143 128 101 73 30 475 18.59%

3.01 plus 165 103 42 11 2 323 12.64%Total 511 511 511 511 511 2,555 100.00%

10 PCT 25 PCT Median 75 PCT 90 PCT Total Percent0-1

2008

6 11 38 102 175 332 12.99%1.01 - 2 99 178 247 258 238 1,020 39.92%2.01 - 3 158 151 116 112 87 624 24.42%

3.01 plus 248 171 110 39 11 579 22.66%Total 511 511 511 511 511 2,555 100.00%

Total All 2000 2003 2006 2008 Total Percent0-1

Total All

  861 908 631 332 2,732 28.86%1.01 - 2   959 863 1,126 1,020 3,968 41.92%2.01 - 3   348 324 475 624 1,771 18.71%

3.01 plus   92 - 323 579 994 10.50%Total   2,260 2,095 2,555 2,555 9,465 100.00%

Rental Affordability By Occupants

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2000 2003 2006 2008

861 908 631332

959 8631126

1020

348 324 475624

92 0323 579

3.01+

2.01-3

1.01-2

0-1

* - Based on all job possibilities.

Rental ConclusionRentals fared much better which reinforced

the theory that rents will continue to increase.

In 2008, over 39% of the job possibilities can afford a rental with 2 jobholders.

In 2008, 22% of the job possibilities require 3 or more jobholders to afford the median 3-bedroom rent (fair market rent).

Analysis Summary - 2008

House Condo Rental0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

31254 332238

9391020

511

6556241775

707 579

3.01+2.01-31.10-20-1

Analysis Summary - 200810 PCT 25 PCT Median 75 PCT 90 PCT Total Percent

House

0-1 0 0 4 7 20 31 1.21%1.01 - 2 4 9 19 72 134 238 9.32%2.01 - 3 14 52 139 159 147 511 20.00%3.01 plus 493 450 349 273 210 1775 69.47%Total 511 511 511 511 511 2555 100.00%

Condo

0-1 4 8 22 76 144 254 9.94%1.01 - 2 70 147 223 252 247 939 36.75%2.01 - 3 151 152 135 123 94 655 25.64%3.01 plus 286 204 131 60 26 707 27.67%Total 511 511 511 511 511 2555 100.00%

Rent

0-1 6 11 38 102 175 332 12.99%1.01 - 2 99 178 247 258 238 1020 39.92%2.01 - 3 158 151 116 112 87 624 24.42%3.01 plus 248 171 110 39 11 579 22.66%Total 511 511 511 511 511 2555 100.00%

Are College Graduates Staying in Hawaii?

“At my salary level (in Hawaii), I was unable to move out of my

parents’ home. I couldn’t afford much. I moved… and

immediately had a job offer.”

Andrea Thomas(Former Hawaii resident)

“I thought I would never leave Hawaii. Even when I went to

Utah State, it was to get a degree, then to come back

home.”

The Kamehamema Schools graduate experienced a long and frustrating job search in

Hawaii before turning his attention to the mainland; he is

now a teacher in Utah.

Source: Star Bulletin

Where Else Can A Worker Afford To Live?

Police and Sheriff’s Patrol OfficersHow many job holders by occupation does it take to afford a Median home by city for 2006

Area nameEmployment

(1)

Annual median wage(2)

Loan Amount Median Wage Can Afford (3)

Loan Amount at 10% Down (3)

2006 Q2 median home price

Number of this occupation (job holders) it takes

to purchase median home

Denver-Aurora, CO 4180 $57,660 $190,051 $229,680 $255,200 1.21Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 10210 $39,180 $129,140 $156,510 $173,900 1.21Honolulu, HI 1960 $46,090 $151,915 $576,000 $640,000 3.79Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 4140 $62,060 $204,553 $326,700 $363,000 1.60Baltimore-Towson, MD N/A $50,740 $167,242 $232,290 $258,100 1.39Kansas City, MO-KS 4950 $39,600 $130,524 $142,920 $158,800 1.09Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 13340 $49,320 $162,562 $138,510 $153,900 0.85Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL Metropolitan Division N/A $62,000 $204,356 $250,650 $278,500 1.23

Philadelphia, PA Metropolitan Division10890 $56,930 $187,645 $211,590 $235,100 1.13

Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 2580 $57,490 $189,490 $244,980 $272,200 1.29Portland, OR (STATE)* 6920 $49,870 $164,374 $255,060 $283,400 1.55Las Vegas, NV (STATE)* 4530 $57,110 $188,238 $287,190 $319,100 1.53Orlando-Kissimmee, FL 4070 $45,360 $149,509 $243,900 $271,000 1.63Austin-Round Rock, TX 4720 $36,860 $121,493 $159,030 $176,700 1.31

Occupation: Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers (SOC code 333051)Period: May 2006

Where Else Can A Worker Afford To Live?

Physical Therapists

How many job holders by occupation does it take to afford a Median home by city for 2006

Area nameEmployment

(1)

Annual median wage(2)

Loan Amount Median Wage Can Afford (3)

Loan Amount at 10% Down (3)

2006 Q2 median home price

Number of this occupation (job holders) it takes

to purchase median home

Denver-Aurora, CO 1680 $59,190 $195,094 $229,680 $255,200 1.18Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 1770 $69,630 $229,505 $156,510 $173,900 0.68Honolulu, HI 370 $65,860 $217,078 $576,000 $640,000 2.65Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 2170 $67,470 $222,385 $326,700 $363,000 1.47Baltimore-Towson, MD 1700 $67,950 $223,967 $232,290 $258,100 1.04Kansas City, MO-KS 1060 $60,870 $200,631 $142,920 $158,800 0.71Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 2520 $72,990 $240,579 $138,510 $153,900 0.58Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL Metropolitan Division 4270 $66,400 $218,858 $250,650 $278,500 1.15Philadelphia, PA Metropolitan Division 3050 $66,960 $220,704 $211,590 $235,100 0.96Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 1160 $63,490 $209,267 $244,980 $272,200 1.17Portland, OR (STATE)* 1700 $61,660 $203,235 $255,060 $283,400 1.26Las Vegas, NV (STATE)* 460 $72,690 $239,591 $287,190 $319,100 1.20Orlando-Kissimmee, FL 1050 $63,490 $209,267 $243,900 $271,000 1.17Austin-Round Rock, TX 490 $59,970 $197,665 $159,030 $176,700 0.80

Occupation: Physical Therapists (SOC code 291123)Period: May 2006

Where Else Can A Worker Afford To Live?

Elementary School Teachers

How many job holders by occupation does it take to afford a Median home by city for 2006

Area nameEmployment

(1)

Annual median wage(2)

Loan Amount Median Wage Can Afford (3)

Loan Amount at 10% Down (3)

2006 Q2 median home price

Number of this occupation (job holders) it takes

to purchase median home

Denver-Aurora, CO 9440 $46,070 $151,849 $229,680 $255,200 1.51Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 31830 $47,140 $155,376 $156,510 $173,900 1.01Honolulu, HI 2540 $37,710 $124,294 $576,000 $640,000 4.63Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 11930 $49,180 $162,100 $326,700 $363,000 2.02Baltimore-Towson, MD 12180 $48,600 $160,188 $232,290 $258,100 1.45Kansas City, MO-KS 10560 $39,490 $130,161 $142,920 $158,800 1.10Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 33530 $44,040 $145,158 $138,510 $153,900 0.95Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL Metropolitan Division 56790 $52,950 $174,526 $250,650 $278,500 1.44Philadelphia, PA Metropolitan Division 23170 $47,540 $156,695 $211,590 $235,100 1.35Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 11120 $46,430 $153,036 $244,980 $272,200 1.60Portland, OR (STATE)* 26870 $32,680 $107,715 $255,060 $283,400 2.37Las Vegas, NV (STATE)* 10630 $33,570 $110,649 $287,190 $319,100 2.60Orlando-Kissimmee, FL 9510 $39,870 $131,414 $243,900 $271,000 1.86Austin-Round Rock, TX 9210 $40,060 $132,040 $159,030 $176,700 1.20

Occupation: Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education Period: May 2006

What Does This All Mean?In 2003, the median salary was $29,350 for

all occupations and it took 3.34 workers to afford the median home.

In 2008, the median salary is $33,782 and it takes 5.14 workers to afford the median home.

To match the home purchasing power from 2003, the average employee would require a:

54% Raise!($16.24/hour $25.01/hour)

What Does This All Mean?“Hawaii and Honolulu are suffering

from a supply imbalance. When employment increases and the

economy starts growing, it takes too long and it is far too difficult because

of the regulatory barriers for the housing industry to deliver adequate units quickly enough and efficiently enough to temper the price spiral.”

Paul BrewbakerSenior Vice President and Chief EconomistBank of Hawaii

What Does This All Mean?

What Does This All Mean? Honolulu and Hawaii are the most regulated

places in America.Without a supply release mechanism, all

housing costs will increase.Honolulu will face continuous spiraling price

pressure with home prices (and all shelter costs).

When people can no longer double up and their quality of life declines, Honolulu’s economy will go into a dislocation period or wages will have to increase rapidly to make up for the imbalance.

What Is The Solution?Comprehensive approach must be taken to

reform regulatory barriers and streamline the permitting process.

Other impediments need to be addressed including infrastructure, tax abatement and subsidy.

But how do we do this?

The SolutionBroad based coalition that can advocate and

educate the public and elected officials as to the solutions.

Gain the support of business and industry leaders along with as many housing advocates and providers.

Strength is in the number of members that can be added and the quality of the business and leaders that support this common mission.

ConclusionHonolulu is in a state of crisis!Baby Boomers are retiring and their skills

will be difficult to replace.Educated new workers will choose more

affordable markets to begin their careers.Qualified workers will seek employment

elsewhere or Honolulu Businesses’ will have to significantly raise wages.

Honolulu Housing Affordability By Occupation

Charles P. WathenApril 25, 2008