characteristics, causes and outcomes of plans: a review of

The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Philip BerkeUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

&Jaimie Masterson, Matt Malecha and Siyu Yu

Texas A&M University

Presentation to the FEMA Plan Effectiveness CommitteeNovember 6, 2019

Characteristics, Causes and Outcomes of Plans: A Review of a Decade of DHS Supported Research on Mitigation Planning

Principles that help make plans implementable (exs. of indicators)

Direction Setting

• Vision/Goals• P1.1environment • P1.2 equity• P1.3 economic

• Fact Base• P2.1 projections of hazards• P2.2 current land use supply• P2.3 future land use needs

• Policies• P3.1 regulations • P3.2 incentives • P3.3 land acquisition • P3.4 infrastructure

• Implementation• P4.1 timeline to act• P4.2 org. responsibility• P4.3 funding

• Monitoring• P5.1 measurable indicators • P5.2 evaluation

• Inter-governmental Coordination• P6.1 info. Sharing• P6.2 inter-gov’t agreements

• Public Participation• P7.1 id. Stakeholders• P7.2 id. engagement techniques

Action-Oriented

http://mitigationguide.org/

http://mitigationguide.org/

Hazard Mitigation Plans Support for Types of Policies Means % of all Possible Policy Actions (n = 175 communities)

12.4%

50.9%

33.6% 33.5% 32.4%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Preventative Land Use Emergency Services Pri. Property Protection Information and Awareness Infrastructure Protection

Emergency services

Education

*High Benefit:Cost Ratios and CRS credit incentives

Source: Berke, Lyles and Smith. 2014; Lyles, Berke and Smith. 2014.

Land use*

StrengthenBuildings

Structural Controls

Social Network Analysis

Onslow County, NC (rare)Martin County, FL (common)

Stove Piping Implementation of Hazard Mitigation Plans

• >60% of communities are coordinating implementation of mitigation plans with emergency management functions.• preparedness, response, recovery

• <30% of communities are coordinating implementation of mitigation plans with non-emergency management functions • land-use, infrastructure, transportation, housing, conservation



Portland Road

New Road

Grand Tour

Chestnut Street

LightHouseRoadTwinLight

HillsideA

venue

Peak Street

Oak

BayStreet

W

oodlandProspect Street

North Peak Street

ValleyAvenue

Mo

u

ntainStreet

Highland Avenue

NewJersey State Highway

3 6

Miller Street

Shore Drive

Valley Avenue

Second Street

CedarS

treet

Holly St.Fourth Street

Fifth Street Point St.

North S

treet

Cornw

ell S

treet

Avenue

Center A

venue

Jackson

John St

BayAvenue

Bay Avenue

Shore Drive

Bay Avenue

Shore Drive

Locust

Will

ow

BaysideDrive

Ring M

athews

Mar

ie S

t.

Linden Avenue

Ralph Street

Laurel Drive

Ocean Avenue

BeachBoulevard

Central Avenue

Snug Harbor Avenue

Marine Place

Recreation Place

Cheerful Place

Water W

itch Avenue

Huddy Avenue

Washington Avenue

Barberie Avenue

Sea Drift Avenue

Atlantic Street

Water W

itch Drive

Rogers Street

Waddell Street

Linden Avenue

Shrewsbury

36

8B

100 YEAR FLOODPLAIN MAP

Highlands Borough, Monmouth County, New Jersey

Figure LU-4

October 20041"-1000'

FIGURE LU-4

100 YEAR FLOODPLAIN MAP

Atlantic

Highlands

Middletown

Gateway National

Recreation Area

Sea B

right

KEY

100 Year Floodplain

500 Year Floodplain

Outside the Floodplain

36

8B

0' 1,000'500'

NJ Municipality: Before Hurricane Sandy: Opposing Intentions?

100-year floodplain &Severe repetitive loss designation

CONCEPT PLAN MAP

Highlands Borough, Monmouth County, New Jersey

Figure LU-6

October 20041"-1000'

FIGURE LU-6

CONCEPT PLAN M AP

Atlantic

Highlands

Middletown

Gateway National

Recreation Area

Se

a B

rig

ht

KEY

✱

!

Potential Gateway Redevelopment Area

Potential CBD Redevelopment Area

Potential Waterfront Redevelopment Areas

County Park

Focal Point Locations

Gateway Treatments

Waterfront Gateway Treatments

Potential Municipal/Public Use

Public Fishing Piers

Twin Lights National Landmark

Rt. 36 Bridge

Heritage Trail

Waterfront Connection

0' 1,000'500'

✱

✱

!

$

✱

Portland Road

New Road

Grand Tour

Chestnut Street

LightHouseRoadTwinLight

HillsideA

venue

Peak Street

Oak

BayStreet

W

oodlandProspect Street

North Peak Street

ValleyAvenue

Mo

u

ntainStreet

Highland Avenue

NewJersey State Highway

3 6

Miller Street

Shore Drive

Valley Avenue

Second Street

CedarS

treet

Holly St.Fourth Street

Fifth Street Point St.

North S

treet

Cornw

ell S

treet

Avenue

Center A

venue

Jackson

John St

BayAvenue

Bay Avenue

Shore Drive

Bay Avenue

Shore Drive

Locust

Will

ow

BaysideDrive

Ring M

athews

Mar

ie S

t.

Linden Avenue

Ralph Street

Laurel Drive

Ocean Avenue

BeachBoulevard

Central Avenue

Snug Harbor Avenue

Marine Place

Recreation Place

Cheerful Place

Water W

itch Ave.

Huddy Ave.

Washington Avenue

Barberie Avenue

Sea Drift Avenue

Atlantic Street

Water W

itch Drive

Rogers Street

Waddell Street

Linden Avenue

Shrewsbury

8B

8B

36

36

Hazard Mitigation Plan:Blue Zone Repetitive Flood Loss

Comprehensive Plan: Purple/Tan Zones Economic Revitalization

Objectives:

1. To spatially evaluate the coordination of local networks of plans at the neighborhood scale.

2. To spatially assess the degree to which the network of plans targets areas most physically and socially vulnerable.


Plan Integration for Resilience Scorecard


Comprehensive Plan

Transportation Plan

Hazard Mitigation Plan

Park and Open Space Plan

∑ ∥

Policy Score for Each Plan Composite Policy Score

8The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill DHS Summit, Washington, DC July 31, 2019

Plan Integration for Resilience Scorecard(Physical Vulnerability)

Phase 3The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Phase 1Delineate districts and hazard zones

Phase 2Determine vulnerability

Score plans

Source: Berke, P. et al. 2015


Technical Assistance Tasks:1) Score plan integration2) Assess social & physical vulnerability3) Identify conflicts and opportunities

Participatory Tasks:1) Partner communities: contribute staff time, GIS data2) Staff participate in training sessions3) Self-evaluate plans, seek public input, draft revisions

A New Tool for Translating Research to Practice

Website: http://mitigationguide.org/scorecard-guidebook/

http://mitigationguide.org/scorecard-guidebook/


Norfolk, VAIntegrate hazard mitigation planRectify unjust distribution of mitigation policiesGuide preparation of comprehensive plan

Nashua, NHDeep engagement - raise awareness, enjoyableFact base for new resilience planCreate crosswalk: Resilience Scorecard + NIST Planning Guide

TX Sea Grant Community Resilience CollaborativePort of Corpus Christi Authority: regional port expansionRockport: prepare comprehensive plan to guide recoveryHouston: track plans after Harvey in neighborhoods

New York RisingStatewide resilience planning

Community Experience: Application of Resilience Scorecard

Norfolk: King Tide©Will Parson, Chesapeake Bay Program, 2015.

Motivating Communities: Lessons Learned

• Equip people with knowledge, not just data• Leverage leaders• Make it enjoyable, positive• Make it practical, user friendly• Nudge, don’t shove


Plan Integration for Resilience Scorecard – Global Applications

NijmegenDordrecht

Rotterdam

Boston, MAAsbury Park, NJ

Norfolk, VAWashington, NC

Ft. Lauderdale, FLTampa, FL

League City, TX

Houston, TX

Nashua, NH

Changsha

GuangzhouShenzhen


• Integrate Resilience Scorecard into APA’s existing planning tools and web-based platforms.

• Adapt the Resilience Scorecard training resources into APA’s well-established delivery methods to reach a broad audience.

• Provide technical assistance to develop a national cadre of trained practitioners as they work with communities.

• Establish a sustainable funding base.

Next Steps:

Thank You

characteristics, causes and outcomes of plans: a review of

Documents