The ASEAN Regional Forum and Security

dynamics in the Asia-Pacific

1. Seang Sreymom, 2. Sak Kimheng3. Ven Sonita, 4. Nil Vandet5. Phada Neary, 6. Kim Bot7. Vong SereyVatanak 8. Hy Nheanny9. Pao Siken

Contents

I. IntroductionII. Historical legacies in the Asia-PacificIII. Hubs, Spokes, and cyclesIV. Origins of the ARFV. Implementing the ARF agendaVI. The ARF’s declining relevance?VII. Strategic relations in the Asia-PacificVIII. Conclusion remarks

I. INTRODUCTIONWhat is ARF? When ARF was establish ?How many members ?What is the main purpose or goals for ARF?

1. What is ARF?

ARF is the part of Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN) which officially known as ASEAN Regional Forum, that refer to the key forum for security dialogue in Asia.

Promoting peace and security through dialogue and cooperation in the Asia Pacific.

2.When was it established?

-During the 26th ASEAN Ministerial Meeting and Post Ministerial Conference, which were in Singapore on 1993, had agreed to establish the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF).

- The first meeting of ASEAN Regional Forum was held in Bangkok on 25 July 1994.

3. Members

- Total members: 27 countries

+ 10 ASEAN members: Brunei Darussalam, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam.

+ Dialogue Partners of ASEAN: Australia, Canada, China, European Union, India, Japan, ROK, New Zealand, Russia, &U.S.

+Others: Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), Pakistan, Sri-Lanka, Timor

Leste, Bangladesh, Mongolia, Papue New Guinea.

4.What is the main purpose or goals for ARF?

+ ARF provide place for members to discuss on the current regional security issues and development of cooperation to enhance stability of peace and security dialogue.

+ Also, ARF make significant contributions to efforts towards confidence-building and preventing diplomacy in the Asia-Pacific region.

II. HISTORICAL LEGACIES IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC

Wars and conflicts have shaped inter-state relations

1st Sino-Japanese War (1894-1895)◦Li-Ito Convention 1885◦Treaty of Shimonoseki◦Russia, France, and Germany forced Japan to return

Liaodong Peninsular to China.◦However, China still had to pay indemnity to Japan.

Historical Legacies in the Asia-Pacific (con’t)

Russo-Japanese War (1904-1905)◦Treaty of Portsmouth

2nd Sino-Japanese War(1937-1945)◦1931: Japan invaded Manchuria◦China had support from Soviet and US◦Nanjing Massacre

Historical Legacies in the Asia-Pacific (con’t)

In East Asia, American policy had actually exacerbated existing tensions with an additional overlay of ideology and strategic division.◦American hegemony in the post-war period◦The multilateral institutional order associated with the Bretton

Woods regime◦A series of bilateral, ‘hub and spokes’ relationships in East

Asia constituted an America-centric security architecture

Historical Legacies in the Asia-Pacific (con’t)Major conflicts broke out:

◦Korean War (1950-1953) US believed in the domino theory UN forces being comprised largely of American troops Armistice was signed to re-establish the 38th parallel

◦Vietnam War (1945-1975) Guerrilla tactics were proved against American forces the American public turned against its government Under the leadership of Richard Nixon, American troops left Vietnam

III. HUBS, SPOKES, AND CYCLES

• The Development of security architecture in Asia- pacific and East Asia by USA strategic policy • US promoted integration regionally in EU• US promoted relationship bilaterally in EA • Japan & China

Hubs, Spokes, and Cycles (con’t)US hegemony which have Pro & Con

. Pro: East Asia’s development occur due to the US’s aids & assistance

ex: Japan, Korea, Taiwan….. Con: Affect to directly & indirectly (war) ex: Vietnam, Cambodia, Lao.

San Francisco System

IV. ORIGIN OF ARFThe ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) is a formal, official,

multilateral dialogue in Asia Pacific region. ARF objectives are to foster dialogue and consultation, and promote confidence-building and preventive diplomacy in the region.

ASEAN Regional Forum members

Origins of the ARFChallenges to• The diversify of its membership • ASEAN states are attempting to maintain some sort of control of

agreement.Ex. Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality ASEAN’s goals neutrality

- However, ASEAN Regional Forum attempt to have a region widely security which encompass the Asia-Pacific. Following the APEC, The ARF’s formation was facilitated by “ track two”

Origins of the ARF

Two developments were especially significant ◦ASEAN’s relation with Chia were improved.◦The decline of American engagement in the region.

USA’s withdrawal from its base at Subic Bay in Philippine .

In this context, It has proved that the problematic is about the territory dispute in the south china sea.- There are a number of conflating territorial claims centering on the microscopic Parcel and Spratly. - Those Islands may sit oil and gas

- China move to occupy some part of Island and building its structure.

China’s growing strategic threat and southeast Asia’s limited ability to counter it is widely seen a driver behind the establishment of ARF

V. IMPLEMENTATION THE ARF AGENDA

The key questions confronting the ARF were about membership and method – who should be in it, and how should it operate?

The US, China, Russia and Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, India and the EU Union: Support

And yet, North Korea and Taiwan: conspicuous initial absentees

There are three reasons to understand how distinctive the ASEAN approach is: ◦ Asian conceptions of security are generally far more comprehensive◦ Emphasizing the role of Indonesia in Asian way◦ Conduction at the foreign minister level

Implementation the ARF Agenda (con’t)The ARF’s development was seen as having three

distinct phases:◦The promotion of confidence building measures (CBMs)◦The development of preventative diplomacy instruments◦The development of conflict resolution mechanisms

The other reason for taking the ARF’s claims to having some normative and socializing impact seriously is the transformation in the behaviour of China.

VI. ARF’S DECLINING RELEVANCEThough ARF could have normative impact on

its member, its admirers are very few

Japan from: from one the most energetic supporter to one of the increasing skepticism because Japanese policymakers have lost confidence on ARF to develop effective CBMs.

ARF’s Declining Relevance (Con’t)ARF’s member division: Those who favor greater

transparency vs Those who don’t to avoid extra external observation => limited scope of CBMs

ARF’s division is not defined by the different sides of the Pacific

On traditional security issue: Japan usually lines up with the Western (Japan’s uncertainty about its sense of identity and place in East Asia; Japan and US bilateral relationship)

ARF’s Declining Relevance (Con’t)ARF are seen incapable of dealing with two

most important security issues-The war on terror & The issues of Korean Peninsular)

North Korean’s admission prevented ARF from discussing the Korean Peninsular issue because ASEAN’s principle of not handling security matter between member to avoid tension

ARF’s Declining Relevance (Con’t)Putting terrorism on top of its agenda, ARF has limited

itself from dealing with other important issues.

On the one hand, this reflects the capacity of the US to shape strategic priorities of the region’s other actors.

On the other, US, and China does not consider ARF as their go-to forum of choice to discuss the resolution of regional security problems. For ex: China in the South China Sea; China, the US, Russia, and Japan has created Six Party Talks instead of using the ARF.

VII. STRATEGIC RELATIONS IN ASIA PACIFIC

Goals of USA toward East Asia

US ‘s Economic Advancement

US & ARF Relation. US favors Unilateral than Multilateral Approach.

East Asia

#1• Balance of Power

#2• Economic Interests

#3• Influence , Values,

Cultures, HR, Democracy

#1Goal

s

The main presence in the region is because US wanted to open up the World to its Influence

Bretton Woods

Institutions

World Bank

IMF

#2Economi

cs Interests

#3 US & ARF relations(Unilateral Vs Multilateral

Approach)_USA 's foreign policy was not sure about the multilateralism to both East Asia , and Asia Pacific. The US was viewed a AWOL in Asia, and Dismissive of ARF.

_Bush refused the participation in may international criminal court, Kyoto Protocol, as well as a series of agreements to limit the use of small arms, land mine, and the biological weapons. The USA didn't see ARF as a worthwhile tool to achieve its strategic goals. The US 's foreign policy prefers the unilateralist approach because of it military power. Iraq Invasion

_No UN_In’t

Criticisms

Multilateral system that APEC embodied has been undermined by the growth of bilateral trade deals through out the

region.

VIII. CONCLUSIONThe ARF has very limited capacities.Has less capacity to address flashpoints.Support for the participation of the parties in multilateral

mechanisms. Engage player in the East Asian region’s evolving institutional

architecture.The ARF led to the development of new institutions with a

narrower.

Game!!! :D

#Q1: . There are three evolution approaches to ARF’s development : 1. Confidence Building. 2. Preventive Diplomacy. 3. Conflict Resolution Capability

1. Right 2. Wrong

3. Wrong 4. Right

Press the space bar to see the correct answer.

#Q2: During the 24th ASEAN Ministerial Meeting and Post Ministerial Conference, ARF was established

1. Right 2. Wrong

3. Wrong 4. Wrong

Press the space bar to see the correct answer.

#Q3: Following the APEC, The ARF’s formation was facilitated by “ track _One”

1. Right 2. Right

3. Wrong 4. Wrong

Press the space bar to see the correct answer.

#Q4: the top agenda in 2014-2015 in ARF was counter-terrorism and Transnational -Crime

1. Wrong 2. Right

3. Right 4. Wrong

Press the space bar to see the correct answer.

Thank You

Q&A