chapter ii highlights of world trade in 2020 and the impact of ......its pre-pandemic level in q4 of...

10

World trade overview 10

Merchandise trade 12

Commercial services 15

Leading traders 18

Least-developed countries (LDCs) 19

Highlights of world trade in 2020 and the impact of COVID-19

8

Chapter I I

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Year

-on-

year

per

cent

age

chan

ge

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2008

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2009

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2010

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2011

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2012

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2013

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2014

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2015

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2016

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2017

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2018

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2019

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2020

Commercial services

Goods

• The COVID-19 pandemic led to merchandise trade declining by 8 per cent and trade in commercial services contracting by 21 per cent year-on-year in 2020.

• The effect of COVID-19 on goods and services differed, with services more severely affected. Services declined by 30 per cent in the second quarter of 2020 compared with a fall of 23 per cent for goods in the same period. While lockdowns led to the cancellation of flights, holidays abroad, restaurant meals, and cultural/recreational activities, the

demand for essential goods held up in all major economies. Unlike goods, services cannot be stockpiled, which means that most of the revenue losses are likely to be permanent.

• As businesses adjusted to new working conditions and vaccines began to be rolled out in the last quarter of 2020, trade in goods saw a recovery of 1 per cent compared with its pre-pandemic level in Q4 of 2019.

World trade overview

Trade in goods and services experienced a deep slump in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic

Chart 2.1 World trade in goods and commercial services, 2010-2020, quarterly (Year-on-year percentage change)

Source: WTO-UNCTAD-ITC.Note: Trade as average of exports and imports.

World Trade Statistical Review 2021

10

World trade in goods and services amounted to US$ 22 trillion in 2020, a 12 per cent decline compared with 2019.

Trade in goods and services

China

China, the top exporter of merchandise trade in 2020, accounted for 13 per cent of the world’s total (up from 12 per cent in 2019), totalling US$ 2,323 billion.

Manufactured goods

Trade in manufactured goods represented 71 per cent of world merchandise exports in 2020, with a value of US$ 12.1 trillion.

Travel

Travel - including tourism and related services - plunged in 2020 as travel restrictions were imposed due to the pandemic. World travel exports dropped to US$ 549 billion compared with US$ 1,468 billion in 2019.

Medical goods

The share of medical goods in world merchandise trade grew from 5.3 per cent in 2019 to 6.6 per cent in 2020.

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2020201920182017

2054

2311 2289 2323

US

$ b

illio

n

Other goods

Manufactured goods

71%

29%

US

$ tr

illio

n

Goods Commercial services

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

20202019201820172016

16 17 19 18 17

5 5

66

5

Exports Imports

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

US

$ b

illio

n

1,233

1,212

1,329

1,298

1,434

1,391

1,468

1,401

549

554

Other goods

Medical goods

93%

7%

Source: WTO-UNCTAD estimates.

Source: WTO estimates.


Souce: WTO-UNCTAD in cooperation with ITC and UNSD.Note: Average of exports and imports.

Chapter II: Highlights of world trade in 2020 and the impact of COVID-19

11

Merchandise trade

World merchandise trade All regions recorded declines in merchandise trade in 2020. Trade in nominal US dollar terms fell more sharply than trade in volume terms. The impact of the pandemic on merchandise trade differed across regions.

Merchandise exports World exports of manufactured goods decreased by 5.2 per cent in 2020 while total merchandise exports declined by 7.7 per cent overall.

Chart 2.2 World merchandise trade by region, 2020 (Annual percentage change)

Ann

ual p

erce

ntag

e ch

ange

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Middle EastAfricaEuropeNorth AmericaSouth & Central America

Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS),

including certain associate and

former member States

AsiaWorld

-7.6

-5.3-4.0

-0.5

-14.9

-4.3

-12.2

-6.9

-9.8

-7.3 -6.6-7.8

-16.0

-8.4

-22.0

-9.7

Merchandise trade in volumeMerchandise trade in value

-0.5%A decline of only 0.5 per cent in Asia in 2020 was due to COVID-19 having an earlier impact than in other regions, Asia’s rigorous management of the crisis and its role as a global supplier of consumer goods and medical products.

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

ManufacturingFuels and miningAgricultureTotal

2020*2019201820172016201520142013201220112010

-8%

-5%

-24%

+1%

* Estimate of product break-down.Source: WTO estimates.Note: Data including intra-trade of the European Union, excluding re-exports of Hong Kong, China

-23.9%Fuels and mining products declined by 23.9 per cent in 2020, due to a big drop in energy prices and a fall in demand.

Chart 2.3 Merchandise exports by major product group, 2010-2020 (US$ billion, annual percentage change)

+0.9%Exports of agricultural products increased by 0.9 per cent in 2020 as many countries depended on food exports during the COVID-19 crisis.



12

World exports of manufactured goods World exports of automotive products were the most affected, among manufactured goods, by the pandemic while textiles saw a strong increase.

Trade in medical goods Trade in medical goods registered growth of 16.3 per cent in 2020 - compared with 4.7 per cent growth in 2019 when the pandemic was just starting.

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Automotive products

Iron and steel

ClothingChemicalsOffice and telecom equipment

TextilesManufactured goods (total)

Ann

ual p

erce

ntag

e ch

ange

-5.2

-0.4

-9.1

-14.9-16.4

16.0

3.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

Personal protective products

MedicineMedical suppliesMedical equipment

All medical products

Ann

ual p

erce

ntag

e ch

ange

4.7

16.3

8.4

18.8

9.8

47.2

4.6 4.35.7

1.5

2019 2020

+16.0%Due to demand for protective personal equipment, world exports of textiles increased the most among manufactured goods in 2020, growing by 16.0 per cent.

-16.4%Exports of automotive products suffered from disruptions to production lines and weak demand in 2020, declining by 16.4 per cent.

+47.2%Trade in medical goods increased significantly in 2020, with trade in personal protective products growing the most (+47.2 per cent).

Chart 2.4 World merchandise exports of manufactured goods, 2020 (Annual percentage change)

Chart 2.5 World merchandise trade in medical goods, by product group, 2019 and 2020 (Annual percentage change)

Source: WTO estimates.Note: Data including intra-trade of the European Union, excluding re-exports of Hong Kong, China.



13

All medicines52.2%

Test kits3.4%

All medical equipment13.1%

Medical equipment

Medicine Medical supplies Personal protective products

Face masks11.9%

Other med supplies17.3%

Other PPP5.5%

Year

-on-

year

per

cent

age

chan

ge

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

IG other industrial suppliesIG parts & accessories (transport equipment)

IG parts & accessories (excl. transport equipment)IG food & beveragesTotal intermediate goods (IG)

Q4Q3Q2Q12020

-4.8

4.4

-2.7-7.4 -5.7

-15.9

10

-7.9

-41.5

-15.3

-1.0

8.3

2.7

-10.3

-1.3

8.5

16.3

9.7

0.5

9.2

52%Medicine represented 52 per cent of world trade in medical goods in 2020.

Chart 2.6 World merchandise trade in medical goods, by product group, 2020 (Percentage share)

Chart 2.7 World exports of intermediate goods, total and by main category (Year-on-year percentage change)



+0.5%Exports of transport equipment saw a slight recovery in Q4 of 2020, increasing by 0.5 per cent year-on-year. The automotive sector was severely affected by COVID-19, with a decline in sales and supply chain disruption.

+16.3%Exports of food and beverage intermediate goods increased by 16.3 per cent in Q4 of 2020 as food supply chains remained resilient and continued to meet demand.

World exports of intermediate goods After three successive negative quarters, world exports of intermediate goods rose by 8.5 per cent year-on-year in Q4 of 2020, a sign of strong recovery in supply chains.


14

Transport

Other services

Travel

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2008

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2009

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2010

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2011

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2012

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2013

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2014

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2015

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2016

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2017

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2018

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2019

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2020

Year

-on-

year

per

cent

age

chan

ge

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Source: WTO-UNCTAD-ITC.Note: Trade as average of exports and imports.

-81%International travellers’ expenditure was down by 81 per cent and transport by 29 per cent in Q2 of 2020. The decline in transport was similar to the drop in the financial crisis of 2009. However, unlike in 2009, the decrease in transport services trade was driven predominantly by restrictions to passenger transport and a fall in demand for international travel rather than by sharp declines in freight shipping.

Commercial services

Chart 2.8 World trade in commercial services by sector quarterly, 2008-2020 (Year-on-year percentage change)

Trade in commercial services by sector Travel and transport were the hardest hit by COVID-19 and associated travel restrictions.


15

Chart 2.9 Other commercial services by subsector, 2020 (Year-on-year percentage change)

Chart 2.10 Change in composition of commercial services between 2019-2020 (Percentage share)

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Computer servicesFinancial servicesInsurance and pension services

Other business services

Telecommunications services

Charges for the use of intellectual property, n.i.e.

Personal, cultural, and recreational

services

Construction

Year

-on-

year

per

cent

age

chan

ge

-18%

-14%

-8%

-5% -5%

3% 4%

8%


Source: WTO-UNCTAD estimates.Note: Trade as average of exports and imports

Sha

re in

trad

e in

com

mer

ical

ser

vice

s (

%)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20202019

19%

24%

54%

3%

19%

12%

66%

4%

Transport Travel Other commercial services Goods-related services

8%Computer services, the fastest growing services sector over the past 10 years, grew by 8 per cent in 2020, boosted by a shift towards remote working and increased digitalization.

-18%With building projects delayed or postponed in many countries due to the pandemic, global construction exports were down 18% in 2020.

• The share of transport and travel intotal services trade declined from43 per cent to 31 per cent in 2020.

• Other commercial services - includingfinancial services, legal services,computer services and professionalservices - increased their share from54 per cent to 66 per cent.

Other commercial services Other commercial services were affected unevenly by the pandemic. Sectors requiring physical proximity, such as construction, and personal, cultural and recreational services, fell steeply. Financial services, in contrast, continued to grow.

Composition of commercial services


16

Chart 2.11 Exports of computer services, selected economies, 2020 (Year-on-year percentage change)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Belize

Japan

Kazakhstan

Myanmar

Portugal

Montenegro

Pakistan

Armenia

Uruguay

Indonesia

Moldova, Republic of

Ukraine

Panama

Belarus

United Arab Emirates

Ireland

Bolivia, Plurinational State of

Colombia

United States

Morocco

Egypt

Romania

Korea, Republic of

Russian Federation

Albania

Ecuador

Mauritius

Czech Republic

Poland

Netherlands

Chile

Georgia

Greece

Sri Lanka

Guatemala

Turkey

Serbia

Belgium

Germany

India

Latvia

Estonia

Australia

El Salvador

Bangladesh

Brazil

Austria

Hungary

Bulgaria

Slovak Republic

Sweden

Singapore

Dominican Republic

Annual percentage change

1%

1%

1%

3%

3%

3%

4%

4%

4%

4%

4%

5%

6%

6%

6%

6%

7%

7%

8%

8%

8%

9%

9%

10%

10%

10%

11%

12%

12%

13%

14%

14%

15%

16%

16%

17%

17%

17%

18%

19%

20%

20%

28%

28%

30%

34%

36%

37%

37%

39%

51%

62%

78%

13%US exports of computer software increased by 13 per cent in 2020, mostly destined for the EU (22 per cent), Canada (12.6 per cent), Japan (10.9 per cent), the UK (9.1 per cent) and Switzerland (6 per cent).

25%US exports of cloud computing and data storage services rose by 25 per cent in 2020, accounting for 16.8 per cent of US computer services exports, up from 7.8 per cent in 2015.

Exports of computer services Exports of computer services saw double-digit growth in many economies across various regions in 2020. Rapid growth was recorded in most economies, in marked contrast with declines in other services sectors.


17

Source: WTO-UNCTAD.


2019 2020

Guatemala

Algeria

Estonia

Angola

Latvia

Lithuania

Cambodia, 76

United Arab Emriates

Philippines

Slovenia, 58

Chinese Taipei

Iraq

Qatar

Bulgaria

Ukraine

Saudi Arabia,Kingdom of

Slovak Republic

Kuwait, the State of

Guatemala

Algeria

Estonia

Angola

Latvia

Lithuania

Cambodia, 70

United Arab Emriates

Philippines

Slovenia, 50

Chinese Taipei

IraqQatar

Bulgaria

Ukraine

Saudi Arabia, Kingdom of

Slovak Republic

Kuwait, the State of

2019 2020

Kenya

Kenya

Côte d’Ivore

Côte d’Ivore

Cambodia

Cambodia

Lebanese Republic, 56

Lebanese Republic, 75

Jordan

Jordan

Bahrain, Kingdom of

Bahrain, Kingdom of

Bangladesh

Bangladesh

Iran

Ghana

Belarus

Spain

SpainHong Kong, China

Hong Kong, China

Malta

Malta

Belgium

Belgium

Austria

Austria

Qatar

Qatar

Iran

BrazilBrazil

Luxemburg

Luxemburg

United Arab Emirates United Arab Emirates

Macao, China, 44

Macao, China, 64

Ghana

Belarus

Among the world’s top 100 traders, Slovenia and Cambodia rose many places in the world rankings for merchandise trade in 2020, mostly due to their manufacturing sectors, which are well integrated into regional supply chains.

Economies where commercial services trade mostly consists of tourism and travel services witnessed a big decline in their ranking in 2020. Examples include Macao, China and the Lebanese Republic.

Leading traders

Chart 2.12 Merchandise traders changing their rankings among the world’s top 100, 2019-2020 (Rank)

Chart 2.13 Commercial services traders changing their rankings among the world’s top 100, 2019-2020 (Rank)

50Slovenia recorded one of the largest increases in world ranking for merchandise trade, improving from 58th place in 2019 to 50th in 2020.

64Macao, China experienced the sharpest fall in the ranking for services trade, dropping from 44th position in 2019 to 64th in 2020.


18


Least-developed countries (LDCs)U

S $

bill

ion

Merchandise trade Commercial services

20202019201820172016

0

50

100

150

200

250

154

32 3440 43

26

177

200195

173

LDCs’ exports of goods amounted to US$ 173 billion in 2020, a 12 per cent decrease from 2019, while LDC commercial services exports totalled US$ 28 billion, collapsing by 35 per cent. Goods exports suffered particularly from a 30 per cent drop in fuel prices, with fuels and mining products

representing around half of LDCs’ merchandise exports. In services, LDCs were hit by travel restrictions, with travel receipts representing the largest source of services export earnings for LDCs.

-12%LDCs’ goods exports declined by 12 per cent in 2020, compared with 9 per cent for the rest of the world.

-35%The value of LDCs’ commercial services exports declined by 35 per cent in 2020, a sharper decline than in the rest of the world (-20 per cent).

Chart 2.14 Exports of Least Developed Countries, 2016-2020 (US$ billion)


19

chapter ii highlights of world trade in 2020 and the impact of ......its pre-pandemic level in q4 of...

Documents